A relic of the not-so-distant past could determine the American championship and in turn which Group of Five team reaches the College Football Playoff.
With five teams in the mix for the conference title, the American could break a multiple-team tie via the sort of computer metrics college football opted to leave in the Bowl Championship Series era in favor of the playoff’s human-driven ranking process.
This potential reliance on computer metrics could make the chase for the American crown the most controversial in the Bowl Subdivision.
Here’s how the race could unfold with two weeks left until the conference title game:
What are the American tiebreakers?
In a perfect world, the American would end the regular season with just two teams atop the conference standings with one league loss. But things rarely go according to plan.
In the case of a multiple-team logjam without any round-robin results to break the tie, the American will first use the penultimate playoff rankings to determine which two teams play for the league title.
Should two teams appear in the rankings on Tuesday, Nov. 25, before Week 14 and then win their season finales, that pair would meet in the conference championship. If three teams make those rankings, the title game will feature that week’s two highest-ranked winners. These are the dream scenarios for the American and for the playoff.
No. 24 Tulane was the only team from the Group of Five in this week’s rankings.
If that’s not an option, the league will split hairs by using the compositive average of four computer metrics: ESPN reporter Bill Connolly’s SP+, SportSource Analytics’ TR116 SOR, ESPN’s SOR and the KPI, a measurement tool created by Michigan State associate athletics director Kevin Pagua.
Who can still win the American?
There are five teams still eligible to reach the conference championship game:
Navy (8-2, 6-1) finishes American play at Memphis on Thanksgiving but won’t put a bow on the regular season until playing Army on Dec. 13. That last game won’t have any impact on the College Football Playoff should Navy win the conference. The Midshipmen beat South Florida but lost to North Texas.
Tulane (8-2, 5-1) still plays Temple and Charlotte. The Green Wave lost to Texas-San Antonio but own wins against East Carolina and Memphis. They didn’t play Navy, North Texas or South Florida.
North Texas (9-1, 5-1) will play at Rice this weekend and then host Temple on Black Friday. The Mean Green has the win against Navy but lost to South Florida.
East Carolina (7-3, 5-1) closes with road trips to Texas-San Antonio and Florida Atlantic. The Pirates just beat Memphis but lost at Tulane in early October.
South Florida (7-3, 4-2) lost to Navy and Memphis but owns the tiebreaker against North Texas. The Bulls are still alive, if barely, with games against Alabama-Birmingham and Rice to end November.
What are the American tiebreaker scenarios?
The cleanest scenario has Navy beating Memphis, North Texas winning out, Tulane losing to Temple and ECU losing to Texas-San Antonio. That would leave the Midshipmen and Mean Green as the only 7-1 teams in league play.
Another simple scenario sees North Texas and Tulane win out, Memphis beat Navy and ECU lose once, leaving the Mean Green and Green Wave atop the standings.
Should every favorite win this weekend — led by Tulane over Temple and North Texas over Rice — the American could place two or even three teams in the penultimate rankings, though that’s not guaranteed.
Will the American champion make the playoff?
Almost certainly. But there are two teams that could sneak ahead if the American flops down the stretch:
San Diego State (8-2, 5-1) has wins against California, Fresno State and Boise State, and could add solid wins against New Mexico and the second-place team in the Mountain West by taking the conference title.
James Madison (9-1, 7-0) is cruising to the Sun Belt championship but currently has just one win against an opponent with a winning record in Old Dominion. The Dukes could add two more against Coastal Carolina to end the month and then against the winner of the West division in the conference title game. Southern Mississippi currently leads the division but just lost by 27 points at home to Texas State, which was previously winless in league play.
Neither team is expected to finish in front as long as the American champion has two or fewer losses.