With only 14 games remaining in the NFL regular season, the convoluted clinching scenarios are a thing of the past.

The playoff picture has largely come into focus, with 12 of 14 entrants already decided and five of eight division crowns claimed. But there are still a few matters left to be sorted out on Sunday.

Among the most notable unresolved issues are who will claim the AFC North and the NFC South. The former will be decided by a winner-take-all showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers to conclude the regular season on ‘Sunday Night Football.’ The latter will come down to the Atlanta Falcons’ meeting with the New Orleans Saints – though neither team can make it into the playoffs. A Falcons win will send the Carolina Panthers to the postseason for the first time since 2017, while a Saints win will ensure the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold onto the division title for a fifth consecutive season.

Here’s what all is on the table for Week 18:

NFL Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Denver Broncos Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Broncos clinch AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

Broncos win
Broncos tie + Patriots loss or tie
Patriots loss + Jaguars loss or tie

New England Patriots Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Patriots clinch AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

Patriots win + Broncos loss or tie
Patriots tie + Broncos loss

Jacksonville Jaguars Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Jaguars clinch AFC’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with:

Jaguars win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss

Jaguars clinch AFC South with:

Jaguars win or tie
Texans loss

Houston Texans Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Texans clinch AFC South with:

Texans win + Jaguars loss

Baltimore Ravens Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Ravens clinch AFC North with:

Ravens win

Pittsburgh Steelers Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Steelers clinch AFC North with:

Steelers win or tie

Carolina Panthers Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Panthers clinch NFC South with:

Falcons win

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 18 playoff clinching scenarios

Buccaneers clinch NFC South with:

Falcons loss or tie

At least you can say the College Football Playoff Selection Committee isn’t involved here. That said, it’s high time for the NFL to tweak its – mostly sensible – codified rules determining who advances to the playoffs.

As currently constructed, said rules will ensure a team with a losing record hosts a playoff game this season. So, too, might a divisional ‘champion’ merely one game above .500. Meanwhile, clubs with a dozen wins might be sent packing on the wild-card road, their relative sin thriving in a subset of similarly elite competitors.

It shouldn’t be this way.

If you watched Saturday afternoon’s literally waterlogged slog between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Carolina Panthers – the Bucs won, sort of, 16-14 – then you probably didn’t feel like you were witnessing some juggernauts deserving of the comforts of sleeping in their own beds next week ahead of a postseason opener merely because an 8-9 record is sufficient to win the lowly ACC, er, NFC South. (OK, maybe we should find a way to get the Atlanta Falcons or New Orleans Saints, NFC South also-rans who are presently playing much better football than the Panthers or Bucs, an at-large bid? Sorry, I digress.)

Additionally, it’s not unprecedented for a team seeded fourth − as the eventual NFC South champs will be − to wind up hosting a conference championship game if enough chaos befalls the squads seeded above it. By comparison, at least five teams could wind up with 11 wins or more but have very little hope of a postseason home game – just a year after the Minnesota Vikings got stuck with a wild card despite going 14-3 (the most wins ever by a non-divisional winner).

It doesn’t sit right. It’s akin to Boise State getting a CFP bye week, an oversight that was quickly corrected. The NFL could have addressed its own ‘issue’ in 2025 and nearly did, the Detroit Lions making a proposal last March which encouraged league owners “to amend the current playoff seeding format to allow Wild Card teams to be seeded higher than Division Champions if the Wild Card team has a better regular season record.”

More than reasonable, it’s absolutely the correct approach for a football system rigged to produce parity. Why wouldn’t you reward teams that actually achieve excellence with a seed commensurate to win totals?

The old-school purists – and I frequently consider myself one of them – will argue that capturing a division is sacrosanct, an accomplishment deserving of the consequential home game as postseason starts. But honestly, it now sounds a lot like those empty suits who used to defend the sanctity and pageantry of the college football bowl system – and whatever would we do without the Duke’s Mayo Bowl or, clutching pearls, the Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl? Somewhat surprisingly, Detroit’s proposal actually got some traction last spring before ultimately being tabled – though maybe one sloppy Saturday in January will fuel it with future momentum.

And, granted, it was easier to defend the argument of fully rewarding division winners a few decades ago, when there were three in a 14-member conference – half of most teams’ schedules at that time made up of divisional foes, inherently making those games more valuable and compelling.

But the NFL realigned in 2002, going to eight four-team divisions across the two conferences. In the era of the 17-game regular season, 65% of a given club’s schedule is against non-divisional opponents – meaning it’s not uncommon to thrive against potentially sub-par intra-divisional rivals, struggle mightily against the rest of the league and still wind up with a crown. Strike seasons notwithstanding, the 2025 Bucs or Panthers will become the fifth sub-.500 outfit to reach to the playoffs in the Super Bowl era (which dates to 1966) – something that never occurred prior to the 2010 campaign.

And Sunday night’s winner-take-all AFC North battle between the Baltimore Ravens (8-8) and Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) will confer a similar reward – even though the six other AFC teams that have already qualified for the playoffs all have at least 11 wins.

Divisions make sense in the NFL. They’ve maintained and/or created natural geographic rivalries, nicely inform the starting point of the annual scheduling process and afford a little extra warranted currency when it comes time to breaking ties for playoff entry. But winning one should confer no more than a playoff opportunity. No way these Bucs or Panthers deserve to be seeded higher than the San Francisco 49ers or Los Angeles Rams, teams that − along with the top-seeded Seattle Seahawks − have made the NFC West the league’s preeminent division in 2025, even as they’ve routinely beaten up on one another. Baker Mayfield’s next pick or Bryce Young’s next 100-yard passing day should have to occur as a No. 7 seed toiling in front of hostile fans while they’re accordingly derided (yet enjoyed for their shortcomings) by them.

And maybe you think this is a problem that solves itself. The last playoff team with a losing record, the 2022 Bucs, got smoked at home by Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys on a Monday night stage which was the last Tom Brady graced as a player. But two of the four teams that have won divisions with losing records actually wound up advancing to the divisional round.

Bottom line? Tradition is nice. Fairness is better.

The Golden State Warriors’ big three returned to help lift them over the Utah Jazz, 123-114, in a Saturday night matchup at Chase Center.

Jimmy Butler added 15 points and seven assists. Warriors forward Draymond Green had eight points, three rebounds, two assists and a block in 12 minutes before getting tossed from the game after receiving two technical fouls, back-to-back, with 2:25 left in the second quarter.

‘Got some clean looks and understood what they were trying to do defensively and taking advantage of switches,’ Curry said to reporters. ‘We played great defense for most of that quarter which gave us transition opportunities and was able to run.’

Lauri Markkannen led the Jazz with 35 points. Keyonte George had 22. Utah led at the end of the first half, 65-58.

Golden State woke up in the second half and played like a team on a mission.

‘Just the level of connection and competition,’ Warriors coach Steve Kerr said to reporters. ‘In the first half we went through the motions, the spirit wasn’t right. The second half guys were really connected, came together and put together a great 24 minutes.’

Golden State fought back in the second half and eventually took a 77-76 lead with 7:37 in third on a Quinten Post alley-oop pass to Gary Payton II who slammed in down for two in a halfcourt set.

‘That spark off that bench,’ Payton said on his contributing role to the team. ‘Get in, get my guys open space to work and just be the outlet for them if they get in trouble. It would help if I can make some layups but other than that just bringing energy and effort off the bench.’

Payton ended the game with 10 points and eight rebounds. He helped spur the team’s second unit to outscore the Jazz bench, 46-30.

Curry began to heat up in the third. He made one of his patented look-away three-pointers and from there he and the Warriors started to gain momentum. He followed with another three-pointer, sparking a burst of energy from the crowd. Curry scored 20 in the third quarter, including a rare play above the rim from Curry.

Curry referenced his dunk against the Philadelphia 76ers last year, saying he thought that would’ve been his last one but has to check with his teammates if they count his ‘jam’ against the Jazz.

‘I surprised myself when I got in the air that I was high enough,’ Curry told USA TODAY Sports. ‘I’m gonna count it because who knows how many chances I’ll get. I’ll have to ask the locker room if they agree with me or not.’

De’Anthony Melton, who scored 13 points and knocked down three long-distance shots, said he counts it.

‘Uhh,’ Melton told USA TODAY Sports while scratching his head. ‘We gonna count it. Anything 30 does above the rim, we gotta count.’

Payton did not share that same sentiment.

‘Absolutely, not,’ Payton said to USA TODAY Sports. ‘We gave him one last year. This one, he let it go and grabbed the rim. I talked to him about it after that. We’re not gonna allow that one.’

Warriors went up by as much as seven. Golden State led at the end of the third quarter, 100-96.

Rookie guard Will Richard got things cooking for the Warriors to open the fourth quarter, knocking down consecutive long-distance shots.

The Warriors held on to a 12-point lead, 111-99, with under nine minutes remaining in the game and held on to a double-digit lead through much of the fourth quarter.

The Warriors move to 19-17 and remain eighth in the Western Conference standings, while the Jazz fall to 12-22 at the 13th spot.

Warriors vs. Jazz highlights

Warriors’ next five games

Jan. 5 at Los Angeles Clippers
Jan. 7 vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Jan. 9 vs. Sacramento Kings
Jan. 11 vs. Atlanta Hawks
Jan. 13 vs. Portland Trail Blazers

By definition, the NFL’s wheat and chaff are fully separated by the conclusion of Week 18 in a given season − the playoff field locked by that point – while hotel bookings, airfares and tee times are being finalized for those members (or soon-to-be former members) of the 18 clubs which have officially seen their campaigns come to an early end.

A lot of those vacation plans are likely already set in actuality even as the 2025 regular season reaches its final weekend, 16 teams − literally half the league − preparing, fervently or maybe not so much, for their farewell contests. A dozen more proceed knowing they’ll get their shots at Super Bowl 60, even if they don’t yet know who or when they’ll be playing on the other side of Sunday.

Beyond that are the four outfits still in limbo − two that will advance to the postseason, and two that will see their Lombardi Trophy dreams dissolve as they join the list of the eliminated. Here’s a look at which teams are already playing out the string, along with the quartet which remains on life support:

NFL teams that can clinch playoffs spots in Week 18 or be eliminated

 Carolina Panthers (8-9, 60% chance to make playoffs, per NFL’s Next Gen Stats, requiring an Atlanta win to do so)

 Baltimore Ravens (8-8, 61% chance, requiring a win over Pittsburgh to do so)

 Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 39% chance, requiring a win over Baltimore or tie to do so)

 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9, 40% chance, requiring an Atlanta loss to do so)

Which NFL teams have been eliminated from playoff contention?

These are the teams that have already seen their postseason chances for 2025 extinguished:

 New York Giants (eliminated in Week 12)

 Arizona Cardinals (eliminated in Week 13)

 New Orleans Saints (eliminated in Week 13)

 Tennessee Titans (eliminated in Week 13)

 Las Vegas Raiders (eliminated in Week 13)

 Washington Commanders (eliminated in Week 14)

 Atlanta Falcons (eliminated in Week 14)

 New York Jets (eliminated in Week 14)

 Cleveland Browns (eliminated in Week 14)

 Cincinnati Bengals (eliminated in Week 15)

 Minnesota Vikings (eliminated in Week 15)

 Kansas City Chiefs (eliminated in Week 15)

 Miami Dolphins (eliminated in Week 15)

 Dallas Cowboys (eliminated in Week 16)

 Detroit Lions (eliminated in Week 17)

 Indianapolis Colts (eliminated in Week 17)

Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture – typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized Sunday, Jan. 4.

Here’s where things stand with Week 18 underway:

NFC playoff picture

yz − 1. Seattle Seahawks (14-3), NFC West champions: Huge win at Silicon Valley on Saturday night assured them of staying home in the Pacific Northwest − with a week off − unless they get back to Santa Clara for Super Bowl 60. Remaining schedule: TBD

y − 2. Chicago Bears (11-5), NFC North champions: Green Bay’s loss in Week 17 was doubly sweet, as it also wrapped up the division title for Da Bears. However coming up short in last Sunday’s thriller at San Francisco means Chicago can’t get home-field advantage … though the Bears could see the Pack in the wild-card round. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions

y − 3. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), NFC East champions: They can’t get into the top spot but could still reach the second seed … which got them to the Super Bowl last season. With Week 16’s defeat of Washington, Philly became the first team this season to wrap up a division in 2025 − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9), NFC South leaders: They beat the Panthers on Saturday … and now they wait. The common-games tiebreaker gives the Bucs the advantage in the standings over Carolina for now. But if the Falcons win Sunday and create a three-way tie, Panthers’ superior record (3-1) in games involving those three teams would give them the division. Remaining schedule: TBD

x − 5. San Francisco 49ers (12-5), wild card No. 1: They could have stayed home for the next month as long as they kept winning. Alas, they could fall as low as the sixth seed now. Remaining schedule: TBD

x − 6. Los Angeles Rams (11-5), wild card No. 2: They became the first team this season to clinch a playoff spot but lost the pathway to home-field advantage and a first-round bye after consecutive losses. They can settle into the fifth seed − and a matchup with the NFC South champion − by beating Arizona. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals

x − 7. Green Bay Packers (9-6-1), wild card No. 3: The Lions’ Christmas defeat put the battered Pack into the field. But a Week 17 loss to Baltimore means Green Bay locks in as the No. 7 seed and won’t play another game at Lambeau Field this season. Remaining schedule: at Vikings

10. Carolina Panthers (8-9), in the hunt: (They’re behind eliminated Minnesota and Detroit, both 8-8, in the overall conference standings.) Saturday’s loss at Tampa doesn’t finish the Panthers. A win by Atlanta on Sunday would confer the NFC South crown to Carolina. Remaining schedule: TBD

AFC playoff picture

y − 1. Denver Broncos (13-3), AFC West champions: After surviving the Chiefs on Christmas night, win in Week 18, and Denver gets the top seed. The Bolts’ Week 17 loss wrapped up the Broncos’ first division title in a decade − which was also the last time they won the Super Bowl. The Chargers also seem content to rest their top players, including QB Justin Herbert, on Sunday in Denver. Remaining schedule: vs. Chargers

y − 2. New England Patriots (13-3), AFC East champions: After blowing out the Jets last weekend, they wound up with their first division title since 2019 when Buffalo lost to Philadelphia. The Pats are just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference and could get the top seed in Week 18 if they win and Denver loses. Remaining schedule: vs. Dolphins.

x − 3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), AFC South leaders: They won their eighth straight but need one more to lock up the division. A victory combined with defeats for Denver and New England lands the No. 1 seed in Duval County. Lose, and Houston can keep the AFC South with a win. Remaining schedule: at Titans

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7), AFC North leaders: They failed to win the division crown at Cleveland. Now they’ll have to beat Baltimore in Week 18. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens

x − 5. Houston Texans (11-5), wild card No. 1: They’ve won nine of 10, including eight in a row after last Saturday’s triumph over the Chargers, but haven’t been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Still, that victory over the Bolts clinched at least a wild-card berth for Houston, which has a shot to win the division for a third straight season − now needing just a Week 18 win and loss by the Jags. The Texans’ sweep of the Chargers and Bills currently has them sitting in the fifth seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts

x − 6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5), wild card No. 2: Last weekend’s stumble against Houston ended their bid to rally for the AFC West title. Now the Bolts will have to chart their postseason path as a wild-card entrant, which is why Herbert won’t play in Week 18. Remaining schedule: at Broncos

x − 7. Buffalo Bills (11-5), wild card No. 3: Sunday’s oh-so-narrow loss to Philadelphia wiped out their hopes of a sixth straight AFC East title. The Bills fall to the seventh spot due to the Chargers’ two-game advantage (5-1) in the common-games tiebreaker. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets

9. Baltimore Ravens (8-8), in the hunt: (The eliminated Colts are technically in eighth place in the AFC.) Their Week 17 win at Green Bay plus Pittsburgh’s loss means the Steelers and Ravens will vie for the AFC North crown on Sunday night. Remaining schedule: at Steelers

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18

Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

Win OR
Tie + Patriots loss or tie OR
Patriots loss + Jaguars loss or tie

New England clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

Win + Broncos loss or tie OR
Tie + Broncos loss

Jacksonville clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with:

Win + Broncos loss + Patriots loss

Jacksonville clinches AFC South with:

Win or tie OR
Texans loss or tie

Houston clinches AFC South with:

Win + Jaguars loss

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

Win or tie

Baltimore clinches AFC North with:

Win

Carolina clinches NFC South with:

Falcons win

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:

Falcons loss or tie

NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2025

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division

z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye

MILWAUKEE, WI — No matter what he did at the Olympic trials, Jordan Stolz was assured of going to the Milano Cortina Games.

A stumble in his best event, the 1,000 meters, was a reminder of why that is. And why it’s a good thing.

‘Jordan’s a really awesome skater, so I’m really glad he was protected in that moment,’ said Jackson, who will race both the 500 and 1,000 meters in Milano Cortina after winning the latter distance earlier Saturday.

‘He still ended up getting third, but yeah, it’s nice to have those protections,’ Jackson added. ‘We want to have our medal contenders out contending for medals at the Games.’

The third-place finish will do nothing to change Stolz’s status as the man to beat in Milano Cortina — just as he has been for the last three years. Stolz won the 1,000 and 1,500 meters at each of the four World Cups this season, and five of the seven 500-meter races. He was the overall winner at all three distances last season, and swept the three sprints at the world championships in 2023 and 2024.

Oh, and after adding the mass start to his program after a three-year absence, Stolz made the podium twice, including a win last month in Hamar, Norway.

But ice is slippery, and Jackson’s experience four years ago convinced U.S. Speedskating that results at trials don’t always ensure the best team.

Jackson was ranked No. 1 in the world in the 500 meters coming into the 2022 Olympic trials, only to stumble at the start and finish third in a race where the U.S. could send only two skaters. Brittany Bowe, who had won the race, eventually relinquished her place, saying Jackson was the better shot for a medal at that distance.

Jackson proved her right by winning gold.

(Jake Paul’s fiancée Jutta Leerdam, who won the 1,000 meters at two World Cups this season, is waiting out a similar fate after crashing at the Dutch Olympic trials.)

To avoid anything like that happening again, U.S. Speedskating changed its qualifying procedures for Milano Cortina. Athletes who won medals at last season’s world championships could pre-qualify for the Olympic team by finishing in the top-five at the same distance at two of the first four World Cups. Which Stolz did, in the 500 meters, the 1,000 meters and the 1,500 meters.

Athletes who made the podium in the same distance at two World Cups also pre-qualified ahead of trials, so Stolz is locked for the mass start, too. Jackson locked her spot in the 500 meters this way, too.

‘That sucks. I’m glad he was already qualified,’ Cooper McLeod, who qualified for his first Olympic team by finishing second behind Conor McDermott-Mostowy, said of Stolz’s stumble.

Because all he had to do was show up, Stolz was planning on using his races at Olympic trials more as training. But he’s been under the weather with a cold the last few days, and said he ‘just didn’t have the right feeling today.’

‘I’ve been a little cramped up because I’ve been dehydrated,’ Stolz said. ‘That was more so the issue today.’

Stolz caught a toe pick in the ice just after the start and fell. He quickly got back up and was able to close most of the distance on McDermott-Mostowy, but not all. His time of 1:07.97 was 0.36 seconds behind McDermott-Mostowy.

‘I just tried to get it all out. Go as hard as I could and see what would happen, where I would end up,’ Stolz said. ‘I was still OK.’

And still on the Olympic team.

The third-place finish would have gotten Stolz to Milano Cortina under the procedures four years ago. But when someone has as much medal potential as Stolz does, or as Jackson did four years ago, some things are best not left to chance.

The United States wants to send its very best team to every Olympics, and that doesn’t always happen when qualifying procedures are hard-and-fast. U.S. Speedskating learned that the hard way four years ago.

Other national governing bodies should, too.

‘Obviously he wanted to put together a cleaner race than that, but that’s just how it goes sometimes. That’s racing,’ McLeod said. ‘He handled it very impressively. He handled it like the many-time world champion that he is. So that was really cool to see.

‘And I think that he should be very confident going into the Games.’

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.