For just the third time in the last 22 years, the NFL in 2024 didn’t have a single team go from worst to first within a division. But don’t declare parity dead just yet.
Look no further than the Washington Commanders for the example that has provided hope to much of the rest of the league throughout the offseason. After going 4-13 in 2023, the franchise opted to wipe the slate clean, bringing aboard coach Dan Quinn, general manager Adam Peters and quarterback Jayden Daniels. Most figured that such an extensive reworking would lead to a transition season, but Washington rocketed to a 12-5 mark and an appearance in the NFC championship game for the first time since the 1991 season. But the organization’s rise still eventually hit its ceiling, with the Philadelphia Eagles capturing both the NFC East title and rolling the Commanders in the conference title game to reach Super Bowl 59.
Now, as teams prepare to break for the summer, many of the league’s incumbent cellar-dwellers are holding out hope for a similarly stark turnaround – and maybe even a little more.
Identifying teams capable of making such a stark surge can be tricky, as the Commanders ranked low on this list last year. But here is our ranking of the league’s eight last-place finishers based on the likelihood they can pull off a worst-to-first transformation this fall:
1. San Francisco 49ers
What’s working for them: It’s easier to bounce back rather than build from the ground floor. Having reached at least the conference championship game four times and won the division three times in the five years prior to last season, San Francisco clearly has the solid foundation that so many others on this list lack. That starts at both coach, where Kyle Shanahan’s adroit play-calling confers a massive advantage, and quarterback, with Brock Purdy now no longer facing questions about his worth after reaching a five-year, $265 million extension that hardly seems lofty.
The 2024 edition of the squad was snakebitten at an unparalleled level, so getting back the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams after injury-riddled seasons is sure to fuel an offensive upswing. The defense also has hopes for better days ahead, too, with Robert Saleh sizing up as the right man to clean up various issues as he begins his second stint as a coordinator with the organization. The NFC West seems at least somewhat manageable to navigate after having the smallest gap between in wins (five games) between any division’s champion and last-place finisher.
What’s working against them: Recapturing their previous winning ways isn’t merely a matter of the 49ers calling a mulligan on last year. There’s been significant attrition, especially on a defense that needs several young replacements – especially along the defensive line – to step up. With Aiyuk still working his way back from torn anterior cruciate and medial collateral ligaments and Deebo Samuel Sr. traded to the Commanders, second-year receiver Ricky Pearsall will have to make a sizable mark to keep the passing game going. Rediscovering a finishing touch will be essential after the 49ers were outscored 165-88 in the fourth quarter and had dreadful results in the red zone on both sides of the ball. The NFC West doesn’t offer any easy outs, either, and the Los Angeles Rams shouldn’t be expected to slide.
Bottom line: There’s usually a clear front-runner annually in this exercise, and San Francisco clearly stands apart from the other entrants. There’s enough change in the last 12 months that an immediate return to form is hardly a foregone conclusion, but this version of the 49ers might have what it takes to reclaim the divisional crown, even if it has ceded its place as the definitive favorite.
2. Tennessee Titans
What’s working for them:Cam Ward might not have cleared the cliched bar of a ‘generational’ quarterback prospect, but it’s easy to see why Titans brass figured he could be a transformative figure for the franchise. In combining high-end pocket poise with unique out-of-structure ability, he can immediately recalibrate an offense that was too frequently thrown off tilt by Will Levis’ backbreaking mistakes in the face of pressure. The offensive line also looks to be as solid as it has been in years thanks to the signings of left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and right guard Kevin Zeitler. New special teams coordinator John Fassel, who is widely regarded as one of the league’s most innovative minds in his concentration, should clean up the rampant mistakes that further doomed last year’s team. With the Jacksonville Jaguars and Indianapolis Colts undergoing their own major adjustments and the Houston Texans yet to assert themselves as truly dominant, the AFC South seems more open than many other divisions.
What’s working against them: If only it were so easy for every talented young quarterback to follow in the footsteps of C.J. Stroud, who engineered the league’s last worst-to-first bid in 2023, and Daniels. Handing the keys over to a rookie typically entails a series of setbacks, and Ward has several overaggressive tendencies that will need to be tamped down in order to avoid a repeat of last season. But for all of the focus on how the No. 1 pick will fare, it might be the defense that ultimately drags this group down. Tennessee simply didn’t do enough to upgrade a group that ranked 30th in scoring, and it undoubtedly will cost them in the short term. And while the Texans might not be world-beaters, they don’t need to be in top form to remain several notches above the Titans and the rest of the division.
Bottom line: If Ward’s playmaking prowess carries over to the pros without a rough patch, watch out. But even with the most fortuitous circumstances, the Titans will be hard-pressed to vault all the way to the top of the AFC South.
3. Chicago Bears
What’s working for them: There might not have been a more consequential offseason addition than Ben Johnson. Not only could the new head coach and play-caller revolutionize the Bears’ long stagnant attack, his decision to come aboard after a famously discerning approach to exploring opportunities cemented Chicago as an organization to be reckoned with in the coming years. Caleb Williams weathered the calamitous conditions of his rookie season about as admirably as anyone could ask, and his abundant creativity could finally be unlocked by Johnson. And between the overhauling of the interior line and the continued boosting of the receiving corps, there’s room for this group to make a seismic leap in the fall. On defense, coordinator Dennis Allen should be a steadying force, especially as Johnson learns the ropes of handling the top job.
What’s working against them: It’s easy to get excited about everything new to the Bears in 2025. But don’t assume it all will click right away. How Williams handles the demands Johnson places on operating within structure and on schedule will bear watching, as it could be an early pain point. Meanwhile, merely importing several veterans up front might not be a cure-all after Chicago posted a league-worst sack rate of nearly 10%. And with the NFC North featuring three playoff teams – two of which vied for the conference’s No. 1 seed in the final week – it’d take almost everything hitting right for Chicago to climb past all of the competition.
Bottom line: Johnson’s appeal stems not only from his play-calling acumen but also his ability to implement the culture refresh that helped the Detroit Lions flourish under Dan Campbell. Bears fans should keep the latter point in mind as the organization makes progress that might not be linear or lead to the mountaintop by the end of the coach’s debut season.
4. New England Patriots
What’s working for them: With patience running thin in Foxborough at the beginning of the post-Bill Belichick era just as it did at end of the legendary coach’s run, Robert Kraft again took drastic action to reshape the organization from top to bottom. And in flocking to free agency to patch holes throughout the roster, the Patriots made it clear they expect to return to at least the precipice of postseason competition in short order. Mike Vrabel is a fitting choice to take on that task, and the former Titans coach no doubt will be looking to restore a culture of accountability after things reached a breaking point at the end of Jerod Mayo’s lone season. The drumbeat regarding the upward trajectory of Drake Maye’s development has only amplified throughout the offseason, and the installation of Josh McDaniels’ more streamlined offense and the addition of several formidable weapons (receivers Stefon Diggs and Kyle Williams as well as running back TreVeyon Henderson) should only accelerate the quarterback’s ascent. But the personnel overhauls might provide the most immediate returns on defense, where defensive end Milton Williams, cornerback Carlton Davis III and linebacker Robert Spillane can be difference-makers for a unit desperate to add more.
What’s working against them: For all the change here, was enough done to lift up an offensive line that repeatedly let Maye and the running game down? First-round left tackle Will Campbell sparked plenty of questions regarding whether he can hang on the blind side against NFL edge rushers, and the other additions weren’t exactly splashy. Even if the front does eventually come together, it might take some time before a group that ranked 31st in ESPN’s pass block win rate metric and last in run block win rate finds its footing. An edge rush counting on castoffs Harold Landry III and K’Lavon Chaisson to provide a boost remains lackluster at best. And barring a long-term injury to Josh Allen, the Bills seem to have more than enough to again trample the rest of the division for their sixth consecutive AFC East title.
Bottom line: Lots of new pieces here. How quickly they all coalesce will determine the extent of the Year 1 improvement. Bet on a boost – perhaps even to the level of relevance in the wild-card race – but don’t get carried away.
5. New Orleans Saints
What’s working for them: For once, there’s change afoot in New Orleans. After several years of stagnation led to the franchise bottoming out with its worst mark (5-12) in nearly 20 years, the Saints are embarking on a new path rather than repeatedly doubling down on an aging and costly roster, with Kellen Moore taking over as the NFL’s youngest head coach. The pivot begins behind center, where rookie Tyler Shough seems to have the inside track to replace Derek Carr after the veteran’s retirement. The second-round signal-caller has the arm strength and confidence to take advantage of arguably the league’s speediest receiving corps, featuring downfield blazers Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed and Brandin Cooks. One of the biggest elements in New Orleans’ favor, however, extends beyond personnel: The NFC South seems far more fluid than most other divisions, with the Saints having split their series against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons last year.
What’s working against them: This rebuild is still something of a half measure, with a sizable amount of cap work still to be done in the coming years before a clean slate will come into sight. Given his struggles to make snap decisions, Shough could be in for a shock to the system as he adjusts to NFL speed – a problem that could be exacerbated by the Saints’ uneven offensive line. The aerial attack also might struggle to find its form if Olave again misses substantial time after sitting out nine games last season. The 30th-ranked defense will have to depend on new coordinator Brandon Staley to cover for its myriad shortcomings, especially in a suspect secondary bound to feel the sting of Paulson Adebo’s departure. And while the division might not be as imposing as others, it seems unlikely that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ grasp, which has lasted four years, will loosen anytime soon.
Bottom line: Sorting out the bottom half of these rankings essentially amounts to dartboard throws. The Saints’ problems have compounded for years, and they might take a similar timeline to unwind. Moore likely will have to endure some tough times before the franchise can launch its true reset in earnest.
6. Las Vegas Raiders
What’s working for them: If the Raiders’ core aim is to establish baseline competitiveness, Pete Carroll and Geno Smith seem to be fitting leaders for that mission. With Chip Kelly designing the offense, the coach and quarterback could rekindle the spark that allowed them to defy expectations in Seattle. Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashon Jeanty’s arrival should immediately change the complexion of a historically putrid ground game, while the receiving corps added pieces to lighten the load on Brock Bowers and move on from the disappointing Davante Adams era. And the Silver and Black might be the only ones in their home city who can count on better luck in short order after their -16 turnover differential finished tied for the second-worst mark in the NFL.
What’s working against them: Chiefly (no pun intended), it’s the division. If Kansas City’s nine-year claim to the AFC West is to come to an end in 2025, the Los Angeles Chargers and Denver Broncos – both returning playoff outfits – would be the natural candidates to assume the top spot. Las Vegas was one of only two teams to go winless in its division last season, and an overall talent deficiency will be hard to compensate for. That particularly seems like the case on defense, where a unit that doesn’t offer much beyond Maxx Crosby will be relying on several veteran stopgap solutions to make up for several free agency losses, which Carroll admitted the group couldn’t afford.
Bottom line: If this list were merely about odds of improvement, Las Vegas would surely claim an elevated spot. But with the organization focused on finally getting back to a place of legitimacy after several rocky years, the Raiders should take a page from Carroll and focus on competing against themselves rather than measuring their progress against their AFC West competitors, though closing the gap would certainly constitute a significant win.
7. New York Giants
What’s working for them: While the Giants resisted blowing things up at the very top of the organization, the team took a far more aggressive tack to reconfigure the quarterback room, which welcomed Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston and first-rounder Jaxson Dart. With Wilson set to take over as starter, Big Blue will no doubt be more aggressive in attacking downfield, with Malik Nabers and Darius Slayton looking more than up to the task of hauling in the veteran’s signature ‘moon balls.’ More big plays also seem in store for a defense that fortified its greatest strength in its pass rush, as adding Abdul Carter alongside Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux could make this one of the league’s most effective crews at creating chaos. And if Dexter Lawrence again plays at a level that will put him in conversation for NFL Defensive Player of the Year, New York’s front could be a legitimate problem. The Giants were 1-7 in one-score games last season – even if some, such as the Thanksgiving flop against Dallas, weren’t as close as they appeared – so a bit of improved fortune could be a boon to the bottom line.
What’s working against them: Wilson didn’t prove to be a tenable starting option for a Pittsburgh Steelers team that offered far more support than New York does. If the Giants fall in an early hole – which seems likely given that the first month brings matchups with the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs and Chargers – how long will Brian Daboll keep Dart on the shelf? A shoddy offensive line looks ill-equipped to support either option and could spoil any visions of a more prolific passing game. Then there’s the matter of the NFC East. Between the Eagles and Commanders being entrenched as established contenders and the Cowboys possibly in line for a bounce back, the climb out of the basement appears steep.
Bottom line: Keeping a hot-seat coach often has catastrophic results, and the Giants might be the latest to rue retaining their current regime for another year. Short of Wilson engineering a stunning late-career renaissance or Dart getting an early look and dazzling, there’s not enough ammo here for a substantial turnaround.
8. Cleveland Browns
What’s working for them: Things can’t be as bad as last year … right? However uninspiring the teams’ quarterback choices are, Deshaun Watson’s ineffectiveness and Jameis Winston’s interception-happy play proved to be an anchor on the entire operation, leaving the once-dominant defense repeatedly saddled with unfavorable situations. With mainstay left guard Joel Bitonio indicating earlier in June that the Kevin Stefanski-helmed attack looks due to get back to its run-centric roots, even small strides in efficiency for a group that tied for the NFL lead with 34 giveaways could have a significant ripple effect. Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward remain elite presences capable of pacing the defense, and first-round defensive tackle Mason Graham and second-round linebacker Carson Schwesinger help provide the youthful backing that went missing in recent years with the team’s draft capital sapped by the Watson trade.
What’s working against them: The shortage of talent behind center might make this one of the shakiest quarterback competitions of the last quarter-century. Even if the ask of the passing game is minimized, how reasonable is it to count on the ground game to rediscover its previous form given how unstable the front has been amid injuries and the loss of offensive line coach Bill Callahan? Linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah already being ruled out for the season as he continues to recover from a neck injury seems like a bad harbinger for a roster that still is short on talent. And the AFC North landscape is nothing short of treacherous.
Bottom line: With general manager Andrew Berry passing up the chance to take Travis Hunter in order to add another first-rounder for 2026, it feels as though the franchise is admitting its focus has advanced beyond this season. Cleveland has the longest active drought for a divisional crown – dating back to their 1989 capture of the AFC Central – and looks as far off as ever from ending it.
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