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As the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 once again test new all-time highs this week, I’m struck by how leadership trends have shifted around quite a bit since mid-December.  Part of my daily chart process involves a series of ratios to better evaluate and understand which stocks are leading, which stocks are lagging, and from where the next big leadership theme may emerge.

Here are three key ratio charts that I’ve found incredibly valuable in recent years, all derived from my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList.  I should also note that the Relative Rotation Graphs remain one of my primary tools to track leadership rotation among the 11 S&P 500 sectors.  I feel that the charts below complement the RRG to provide a more comprehensive picture of rotation among themes and styles.

This first chart hits on perhaps the most important equity market theme in 2024, the dominance of growth over value.  The top panel compares the Russell 1000 Growth vs. Russell 1000 Value ETFs, which pulled back into mid-January before rallying again this week.  

Next we have the S&P 500 Pure Growth and Value ETFs, which ignore stocks like Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) that are “double counted” as they display both growth and value characteristics.  This chart has once again broken to new highs as growth stocks have spiked higher this week.

Finally, we’re charting a ratio of the S&P 500 High Beta and Low Volatility ETFs, which has been steadily trending higher since early September.  This provides another way to demonstrate how higher beta companies, or those that tend to experience stronger movements than the benchmark, have done better than more conservative names that tend to demonstrate less volatility than the benchmark.

Even though strategists, including yours truly, have been speaking of the “return of small caps” for quite some time, this next chart shows that investors are still waiting for that fateful day to arrive.  The Russell 2000 ETF has been underperforming its large cap counterpart fairly consistently over the last two years, and the equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF is close to a new 52-week low relative to the regular cap-weighted S&P 500 ETF.

While conditions appear to be ripe for small caps to outperform, these ratios show how the strength in large caps continues to be a key market theme.  Indeed, for the last 12 months, owning anything but large cap growth stocks most likely did not help your portfolio, with the notable exception of a rare few outperformers.  When in doubt, follow the trend.  And the trend remains favoring large cap stocks.

These next three data series represent what I call “offense vs. defense”, in that they track traditionally offensive sectors like consumer discretionary vs. traditionally defensive sectors like real estate.  With the exception of the bottom data series, showing how hotels have underperformed utilities, this chart shows that investors are still favoring “things you want” over “things you need”.

To put it another way, offense is still winning over defense.

Overall, despite a clearly corrective move at year-end 2024 into early 2025, these equity markets appear to have rotated right back to a growth-led bull market phase.  By consistently reviewing the charts we’ve discussed above, you should be able to better identify shifts in leadership and hopefully take action to better position yourself for what may come next.

For two more bonus ratio charts covering key asset allocation themes, be sure to check out my latest video on the StockCharts TV YouTube channel!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s NFL future remains uncertain in the days following the team’s 28-22 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC divisional round game.

Stafford finished his fourth season with the Rams and his 16th overall season in the league after spending the first 12 years with the Detroit Lions.

Despite dealing with injuries, the veteran quarterback played in 16 of the Rams’ 19 games this past season, including Sunday’s game in snowy Philadelphia. But how healthy was Stafford in that loss? His wife, Kelly Stafford, shared some insight into what he’s been dealing with for this past month.

Here’s what you need to know:

All things Rams: Latest Los Angeles Rams news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

Was Matthew Stafford playing with a rib injury?

Matthew’s wife Kelly Stafford mentioned on “The Morning After with Kelly Stafford & Hank” podcast that her husband has been playing with four cracked ribs “for some time.”

According to Kelly, Matthew had been dealing with the injury for over a month, after cracking his ribs on Dec. 12 against the San Francisco 49ers.

The ribs became an issue again, Sunday in Philadelphia.

‘He got his rib (aggravated) early,” Rams coach Sean McVay told reporters after the game against the Eagles. “He got dinged up. But he is a warrior. He’s so tough.’

Stafford completed 26 of 44 pass attempts for 324 yards and two touchdowns against the Eagles. But, he was also sacked five times.

‘I’ve been dealing with those kinds of things to a varying degree for some time, but just kind of got them going again, but was able to kind of calm it down,” Stafford said after Sunday’s game. “I didn’t feel like it was much of a factor. It felt like I threw the ball pretty good.’

Will Matthew Stafford retire?

Stafford was not willing to comment in great detail about his future after the loss other than telling reporters that he’ll “take some time to think about it.”

Stafford has completed 5,174 of his 8,166 pass attempts for 59,809 yards, 377 touchdowns and 188 interceptions in his career.

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Trump formally nominated Sean Curran, the head of his personal Secret Service security detail, to serve as director of the U.S. Secret Service on Wednesday.

Curran, one of the several quick-thinking agents who rushed on stage to protect Trump during the July 13 assassination attempt, was already expected to be named to the position. In a Truth Social post on Wednesday, Trump wrote that it was an ‘honor’ to appoint Curran.

‘Sean is a Great Patriot, who has protected my family over the past few years, and that is why I trust him to lead the Brave Men and Women of the United States Secret Service,’ the president wrote.

Trump went on to call Curran a ‘brilliant leader, who is capable of directing and leading operational security plans for some of the most complex Special Security Events in the History of our Country, and the World.’

‘He proved his fearless courage when he risked his own life to help save mine from an assassin’s bullet in Butler, Pennsylvania,’ Trump said. ‘I have complete and total confidence in Sean to make the United States Secret Service stronger than ever before.’

President Trump announced other nominees on Wednesday, including Andrew F. Puzder, who is the Republican leader’s pick for U.S. ambassador to the European Union.

Puzder is the former CEO of CKE Restaurants, which owns Carl’s Jr. and Hardee’s. In a post, Trump called the nominee ‘a successful attorney, businessman, economic commentator, and author.’

‘During his 17-year tenure as CEO, Andy led the company out of serious financial difficulty, allowing it to survive, become financially secure, and grow,’ Trump said. ‘Andy will do an excellent job representing our Nation’s interests in this important region.’

In a separate statement on Wednesday, Trump announced that conservative writer L. Brent Bozell III has been named to run the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM). Trump said that ‘few understand the Global Media landscape in print, television, and online’ better than Bozell.

‘He and his family have fought for the American principles of Liberty, Freedom, Equality, and Justice for generations, and he will ensure that message is heard by Freedom-loving people around the World,’ Trump wrote. ‘Brent will bring some much needed change to the U.S. Agency for Global Media.’

Bozell has worked in conservative media for decades. The nephew of National Review founder William F. Buckley, Jr., Bozell founded the Media Research Center in 1987. Last fall, Bozell penned a supportive Fox News Digital op-ed about Trump’s chances against then-Vice President Kamala Harris.

‘Trump has something Harris doesn’t: a winning record, a winning agenda and a winning vision,’ Bozell wrote. ‘She avoids her record because it’s not only radioactive politically, but socialism has a rich history of utter failure everywhere.’

‘All Donald Trump needs to do is tell his story, remind people what was accomplished during his presidency. State simply he will do it again, both at home where so many are suffering, but also abroad where the world nears a boiling point. Lay out his vision of his city on the hill. ‘

The USAGM, which was previously known as the Broadcasting Board of Governors (BBG) until 2018, controls Voice of America as well as other state-funded media outlets. According to the agency’s website, USAGM’s purpose is to ‘to inform, engage and connect people around the world in support of freedom and democracy.’

Fox News Digital’s Michael Ruiz contributed to this report.

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Gavin DeGraw shared photos of himself performing at the Starlight Ball Monday night after the inauguration of President Donald Trump. 

‘Proud to support free speech, healthy food, and ending ‘forever wars,’’ he wrote on X. ‘Nice to have a businessman running the largest economy in the world again. I love a good party, Mr. President @realDonaldTrump.

‘Let’s do the next one on Mars @elonmusk. God Bless America,’ DeGraw wrote with an American flag emoji, adding, ‘Don’t tread on me.’

‘Nice to have a businessman running the largest economy in the world again.’

— Gavin DeGraw

The Starlight Ball was the third of three balls that Trump attended after his inauguration Monday. 

Rascal Flatts, Parker McCollum, Kid Rock and Billy Ray Cyrus performed at the Commander in Chief Ball the same night, and Jason Aldean, the Village People and Nelly entertained at the Liberty Ball. 

DeGraw is probably best known for his 2003 hit ‘I Don’t Want to Be,’ which became the theme song for the millennial teen show ‘One Tree Hill.’

DeGraw generally stays away from politics on social media, mostly posting about his music. 

He also performed at ‘The Fourth in America’ concert in July, saying he was ‘honored’ to entertain for the patriotic show. 

Other stars who performed at Trump’s inaugural events included Carrie Underwood and Lee Greenwood. 

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President Trump re-designated the Houthis as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO) on Wednesday, four years after his first administration made an identical move.

In an executive order signed on Wednesday, Trump said that the terrorist group ‘threaten[s] the security of American civilians and personnel in the Middle East, the safety of our closest regional partners, and the stability of global maritime trade.’

‘Supported by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF), which arms and trains terrorist organizations worldwide, the Houthis have fired at U.S. Navy warships dozens of times since 2023, endangering American men and women in uniform,’ the order noted.

Trump also documented that ‘numerous’ attacks that the terrorist group has conducted over the years, including ‘multiple attacks on civilian airports in Saudi Arabia, the deadly January 2022 attacks on the United Arab Emirates, and more than 300 projectiles fired at Israel since October 2023.’

‘The Houthis have also attacked commercial vessels transiting Bab al-Mandeb more than 100 times, killing at least four civilian sailors and forcing some Red Sea maritime commercial traffic to reroute, which has contributed to global inflation,’ the order added.

Trump administration designated the Houthis as an FTO in January 2021. In a Wednesday press release, the White House noted that the Biden administration immediately reversed it.

‘As a result of the Biden administration’s weak policy, the Houthis have fired at U.S. Navy warships dozens of times, launched numerous attacks on civilian infrastructure in partner nations, and attacked commercial vessels transiting Bab al-Mandeb more than 100 times,’ the White House said on Wednesday.

‘The Executive Order directs the Secretary of State, in consultation with others, to recommend the re-designation of the Houthis within 30 days.’

Though the Biden White House removed the FTO designation in January 2021, Biden did name the Houthis as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) entity last week. That designation is considered a lower grade than an FTO.

Then-State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller defended the move in a press conference, claiming that the Houthis recently launched attacks on cargo ships in the Middle East – though the group has targeted commercial ships for years.

‘The Houthis were procuring military equipment long before that designation and they continued to procure it in the year since,’ Miller explained. ‘What’s changed as we have seen them launching attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, something that wasn’t the case in 2021. And that’s why we decided it was important to take this step. ‘

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The first half of the 2024-25 NBA season saw the rise of an unexpected contender – the Cleveland Cavaliers have the league’s best record – just like it saw a perennial power, the Golden State Warriors, stumble late.

There’s still so much basketball left, however, that pretty much anything can happen in the second half. And the Feb. 6 trading deadline presents a chance for teams to drastically alter the courses their seasons will take.

That means players like Jimmy Butler, Zion Williamson and Zach LaVine could find themselves in new locations playing for contenders – all of which sets up for a compelling second half.

Eight bold predictions for the second half of the 2024-25 NBA season.

Jimmy Butler will land in Phoenix … and the Suns still will miss the playoffs

As momentum builds for a Jimmy Butler trade to Phoenix – the Suns acquired tradable first-round picks in a supplementary trade with the Jazz on Tuesday – the situation with Butler in Miami is seemingly becoming more unsustainable. And while Butler presents a slight upgrade over Bradley Beal, the fit alongside Kevin Durant and Devin Booker will almost certainly need some time to materialize. One potential issue, aside from Butler’s diminished production and age (35), is that he – like Durant and Booker – also thrives when the ball is in his hands. At a minimum, Butler should be engaged, at least far more than he was in his final days with the Heat. But the Suns (21-21) are 10th in the West, and Butler will not fix the team’s massive lack of depth.

The New York Knicks will reach the Eastern Conference finals

The Knicks have not played in the Eastern Conference finals since 2000. They have been close in the past two seasons but can’t break through. The Knicks have lost five of their past 10, and, yes, their defense has hit something of a midseason wall – they rank 24th in the past 10 games in defensive rating (116.5 points allowed per 100 possessions). But the Knicks also have several things going for them that should make them considerable threats in the East, even with the Cavaliers (36-6) and Celtics (30-13) looming. For one, they have a cohesive starting unit that has an absurdly high number of minutes on the floor together – a total of 1,632 minutes, 183 more than the next closest group. 

For Golden State Warriors, it’s going to get worse before it gets better

Their 12-3 start seems so distant. Golden State, now facing injury issues, is reeling, with losses in 18 of its past 27 games. Stephen Curry is still an elite player, but his ability to finish at the rim has diminished, and he can no longer mask the team’s weaknesses. Finishing at the rim is a larger issue; the only teams with a lower two-point shooting percentage are the New Orleans Pelicans and Charlotte Hornets. Although Jonathan Kuminga showed some promise, the team may be looking to shop him. And, if it’s an indication of where the team is, Golden State could potentially be sellers before the Feb. 6 trade deadline.

It’s Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals

Excusing Cleveland’s 134-114 loss to Oklahoma City on January 16, these are the two best teams in the NBA. Both are deep, have outstanding coaches and a well-constructed blend of stars and role players, including the potential NBA MVP in Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Such a matchup would be a referendum on what’s possible for small- and mid-market teams, roster construction and the league’s collective-bargaining agreement that attempts to foster parity/competitive balance.

Either Memphis Grizzlies or Houston Rockets will reach Western finals

Houston is in second place and Memphis is in third place in the West, and one will advance to the conference finals. Heck, they will play each other for a spot in the conference finals. The Rockets have one of the best young cores in the league, and the Grizzlies were headed in that direction before Ja Morant’s gun-related suspension in June of 2023 and recent injury. Memphis hasn’t played in a conference final since 2013, during the Grit and Grind era featuring Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley and Tony Allen. Houston last reached the conference finals in 2018 and hasn’t reached the playoffs since 2020, but this is a rebuilt team under general manager Rafael Stone and second-year coach Ime Udoka. Top players Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore and Jabari Smith Jr. are all 22 or younger. Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks and Jeff Green provide veteran leadership.

Forget the play-in, the Sacramento Kings will finish with a top 3 seed in the West

Sacramento, finally, has found its identity. The Kings (22-20) have won nine of their last 10 games and have launched their turnaround on defense. Over that span, Sacramento ranks fourth in the NBA in defensive rating (108.7) and is just 4.6 points per 100 possessions off the No. 1 team, the Thunder. Guard Keon Ellis has been unleashed as a backcourt clamp-down defender, rotational help defense has been crisper and everyone is being asked to swarm and deflect balls. Coupled with the offensive firepower of De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan, the Kings have the pieces in place to go on a run.

Boston Celtics won’t reach the NBA Finals to defend title

The Celtics have been among the best teams in the league for most of the past 10 years – most victories, six conference finals, two NBA finals and the 2024 championship since 2015. They have the talent – perhaps the best starting five in the league led by Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown – and depth – Payton Pritchard is a leading Sixth Man of the Year candidate – and they know how to finish a series. Though the Celtics are the betting favorites and defending champions, winning consecutive titles is difficult. It hasn’t happened since Golden State in 2017 and 2018, and no team has even reached the Finals in consecutive seasons since the Warriors in 2018 and 2019.

Los Angeles Lakers fail to get out of the first round – again

Since LeBron James arrived in 2018, the Lakers have made the playoffs four times, losing in the first round in 2024 and 2021, winning the title in 2020 and reaching the conference finals in 2023. This season, a play-in game situation is possible, and a lower seed in the first round is likely. Unless the Lakers make a notable trade-deadline deal, it’s difficult seeing them make a deep run in the West. By record (22-18) and stats (No. 13 offensively, No. 24 defensively), they are barely an above-average team. In sixth place in the West, the Lakers are closer to 11th place than they are fourth place.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Trent Baalke won’t be leading the Jacksonville Jaguars into the team’s next era after all.

The team announced Wednesday it was parting ways with its general manager, a little more than two weeks after the organization initially announced it would retain Baalke but fire coach Doug Pederson.

“Following several discussions with Trent Baalke this week, we both arrived at the conclusion that it is in our mutual best interests to respectfully separate, effective immediately,’ owner Shad Khan said in a statement. ‘Trent leaves us with my deepest appreciation for his efforts over the past five seasons.’

Ethan Waugh will serve as interim general manager, Khan said.

The news comes on the same day that Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen withdrew from consideration for the Jaguars’ coaching vacancy, per multiple reports. Coen had been scheduled to have a second interview with the Jaguars this week, along with former New York Jets coach Robert Saleh and Las Vegas Raiders defensive coordinator Patrick Graham, according to multiple reports.

All things Jaguars: Latest Jacksonville Jaguars news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

The Jaguars also lost out on former Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who interview with Jacksonville on Jan. 11 but opted to take the Chicago Bears’ head-coaching position.

In explaining his initial decision to retain Baalke, Khan balked at the idea that the franchise was due for wholesale changes.

‘What is a complete overhaul of the franchise?’ Khan asked on a Zoom call with reporters. ‘Health and wellness of the players, medical statistics, analysis, scouting, and a number of other elements along with contract administration, all of those areas we have really changed (and) improved certainly over the last four or five years. So to change all of that is almost like suicidal.’

Baalke was hired by the Jaguars in 2020 as director of player personnel. He was elevated to the interim general manager role after David Caldwell’s firing in November 2020 and then was promoted to the full-time role.

The Jaguars finished 4-13 in 2024 after Khan made clear his high expectations by saying before this season that this was ‘the best team assembled by the Jacksonville Jaguars ever.’

After firing Pederson, Khan said he took issue with the tactical approaches that had been deployed, saying ‘we are the most predictable team on both sides of the ball.’

This story has been updated with new information.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Chicago Bears coach Ben Johnson is the latest offensive guru to get his first NFL head coaching job before his 40th birthday − and the latest example of an ongoing trend in hiring by the league’s owners.

The Bears formally introduced Johnson, 38, as their new head coach Wednesday, making him the second-youngest coach in the league behind Mike Macdonald of Seattle, who was hired last year. He is also the 14th coach in his 30s to be hired as an NFL head coach over the past five years − a group that is mostly white and with an expertise on the offensive side of the ball, like Johnson.

Over the past five years, more than 1 in 3 of the head coaching vacancies in the NFL have been filled by someone in their 30s as the average age of NFL head coaches has continued to decline, USA TODAY Sports data shows.

The trend has been colloquially referred to as the ‘Sean McVay Effect’ following McVay’s success with the Los Angeles Rams, who hired him at 30. (McVay, despite entering his ninth season at the helm, is just four months older than Johnson.)

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

How did Ben Johnson get his NFL coaching start?

A former walk-on quarterback at North Carolina, Johnson spent a few years coaching in college at Boston College before getting his first NFL job in 2012, when the Miami Dolphins hired him as an offensive assistant. He was just 26 at the start of his first season as an NFL coach.

Johnson was later promoted to position coach and retained during a head-coaching change. He left Miami for Detroit in 2019, where he worked his way up to tight ends coach, passing game coordinator and, eventually, offensive coordinator.

Is Ben Johnson the youngest coach in the NFL?

No. At the time of his hiring, Johnson was just the second-youngest head coach in the league, behind Macdonald.

At the time of his hiring, there were still five other teams with head-coaching vacancies: The Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Las Vegas Raiders, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. The only other head coach hired so far this month was New England Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel, who is 49.

Who are the youngest head coaches in the NFL?

Here are the ages of the 10 youngest head coaches in the NFL, as of January 2025.

Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks (37 years, 6 months)
Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears (38 years, 8 months)
Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams (38 years, 11 months)
Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings (39 years, 7 months)
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts (39 years, 8 months)
DeMeco Ryans, Houston Texans (40 years, 5 months)
Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans (40 years, 7 months)
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals (41 years, 8 months)
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins (41 years, 10 months)
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals (42 years old)

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

The New York Jets have taken the first major step in getting their rebuild off the ground.

The Jets on Wednesday hired Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn as their new head coach, the team announced.

Glenn, 52, held a second interview in person with the Jets on Tuesday, just three days after the Lions were eliminated in the divisional round playoff game, thereby freeing up the team’s assistants to be hired. He had been scheduled to have a second interview with the New Orleans Saints later this week, according to multiple reports.

Now, the former NFL cornerback will serve as the leader of the franchise for which he played from 1994-2001, earning two of his three career Pro Bowl nods. He also began his post-playing NFL career with the Jets as a scout.

“This place is special for me,’ said Glenn in a statement. ‘From the time I was drafted and practiced on Long Island, to the time I came back as a scout in New Jersey, this organization has always felt like home. I’m thankful to (owner Woody) Johnson for this opportunity. To our players, prepare to be coached with everything we have. That is our responsibility. I ask that we share the same vision and that’s working towards winning a championship. To our fans, simply put, expect a winning team that you will be proud of.”

All things Jets: Latest New York Jets news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

Glenn becomes the second Lions coordinator to leave for a top job with another team this week after Ben Johnson agreed to terms on a deal with the Chicago Bears on Monday.

In Detroit, Glenn deployed an aggressive defense that managed to rank seventh in points allowed in 2024 despite a rash of personnel losses, with 12 players from the unit finishing the year on injured reserve.

His scheme that runs heavy on man coverage and blitzes should carry over to New York, which features top talent in cornerback Sauce Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams, among others. But despite ranking third in yards allowed for the second consecutive year, the defense finished 20th in points allowed, with the unit wavering after defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich took over as interim coach after Robert Saleh was fired.

New York finished 5-12 in 2024, extending the league’s longest active postseason drought to 14 seasons.

The Jets are still without a general manager after firing Joe Douglas in November.

Perhaps the biggest question facing Glenn will be whether Aaron Rodgers is part of the team’s plans for 2025. The quarterback remains under contract but has acknowledged his future with the organization is uncertain.

‘I think everybody understands that it’s going to come down to a GM and a coach and myself and whether we all want to do a dance together or if it’s not in the cards,’ said Rodgers on ‘The Pat McAfee Show’ last week.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

We’re quickly approaching the fourth weekend of 2025.

And the Senate is already running behind.

This could trigger weekend Senate sessions as Senate Republicans try to accelerate the process on some of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees.

Senators failed to forge a time agreement to expedite the confirmation of CIA Director nominee John Ratcliffe.

So, here are some Senate vocabulary terms for you.

Cloture, filibuster and ripen.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., filed ‘cloture’ Tuesday to break filibusters on three nominees, starting with Ratcliffe. ‘Invoking cloture’ is the parliamentary means to break a filibuster.

A filibuster is in the eyes of the beholder. A filibuster could be a way to hold something up via a lengthy speech. It could be a way to just object and sidetrack the Senate’s course. Or, it could be implied that senators who plan to deploy either option. Thus, the Senate Majority Leader gets the joke. He knows he must ‘file cloture’ to terminate the ‘filibuster.’

Democrats appear dug in on Ratcliffe. So Thune took the procedural step of filing cloture petitions to overcome a filibuster on the the Ratcliffe nomination, but also for Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth and Homeland Security Secretary nominee Kristi Noem.

By rule, once cloture is filed, it must ‘ripen’ for a day before the Senate may consider it. Thune filed cloture on Ratcliffe Tuesday. Therefore Wednesday serves as the intervening day. The Senate could vote to break the filibuster one hour after the Senate meets on Thursday at 10 am et. By rule, the cloture vote can begin at 11 am et. That will only need 51 yeas to break the filibuster.

CIA Director is not recognized as a full-level cabinet position. So the ‘post cloture’ time is limited to only two hours – not the full 30 hours of debate allowed for all cabinet level slots.

Thus, if the Senate breaks the filibuster on Thursday, a vote to confirm Ratcliffe as CIA Director could come just two hours later. Confirmation only needs 51 votes.

Next in the queue is the Hegseth nomination. And the process starts all over again.

Fox has learned that unless there is a time agreement to accelerate debate on nominees, it is possible that the confirmation vote on Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth could come late Friday night or in the wee hours of Saturday morning.

So let’s say the Senate clears the filibuster on Ratcliffe by late morning. It debates his nomination for a couple of hours. That means the Senate could vote by 3 or 4 p.m. ET to confirm Ratcliffe.

Once Ratcliffe is confirmed, Hegseth is next. The Senate could then vote to break the filibuster on Hegseth on Thursday afternoon. If the Senate breaks the filibuster, that would then trigger up to 30 hours of debate. If all time is used, final confirmation on Hegseth could come late Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Regardless, this is where things get interesting:

Fox is told it’s possible there could be a tie on the confirmation vote for Hegseth. It’s about the math. Republicans have 53 members. Fox is told to keep an eye on Sens. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska. All have played their cards close to the vest as to their opinions on Hegseth. If they vote nay, Vice President Vance could need to come to the Capitol to break the tie and confirm Hegseth as Defense Secretary.

No vice president had ever broken a tie to confirm a cabinet secretary until former Vice President Mike Pence did so to confirm Betsy DeVos as Education Secretary on February 7, 2017. Pence also broke ties to confirm former Sen. Sam Brownback, R-Kan., as ambassador for religious freedom in 2018. He also broke a tie to confirm current Budget Director nominee Russ Vought as Deputy Budget Director in 2018.

Once the Senate dispenses with the Hegseth nomination, it’s on to a procedural vote for Noem. The Senate would need to break a filibuster on Noem’s nomination. If that vote comes late Friday/early Saturday, the Senate could vote to confirm Noem midday Sunday if they burn all time. If the vote to break the filibuster on Noem comes at a ‘normal’ hour Saturday (say 10 or 11 am et), the Senate doesn’t vote to confirm Noem until Sunday night or Monday if all time is required.

Thune also filed cloture on the nomination of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent late Thursday. So that’s up once Noem is confirmed. If all time is used, Bessent isn’t confirmed until early next week.

And so it goes.

‘Do you all have your sleeping bags and cots?’ asked Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Miss.

Everyone is settling in for a slog.

‘Right now it appears there’s every indication that votes will be taking place through Saturday. We’ll see if that goes into Sunday or Monday without any days in between. But right now, I’m planning on being there for the weekend for votes,’ said Sen. Ben Ray Lujan, D-N.M.

‘I’m happy to be here all weekend, if that’s what it takes,’ said Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo.

That said, Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, D-Ill., cautioned that things sometimes accelerate in the Senate. Especially when there’s chatter of late-night votes and weekend sessions.

‘I think I’ve seen this game before,’ said Durbin Tuesday. ‘I think it ends with an accommodation and a bipartisan agreement. So I wouldn’t jump too quickly now to reach a conclusion.’

That said, there are two factors afoot:

Democrats want to make a point about their reservations Trump nominees – especially those with whom they vehemently disagree or believe are unqualified. So politically, it’s important that they go to the mat and show their base they’re standing up to the President and his cabinet.

By the same token, this is Thune’s first rodeo as Majority Leader. He needs to establish his bona fides as Leader. Politically, Thune must demonstrate he’s fighting for Mr. Trump and his nominees – and willing to keep the Senate in session around the clock. In other words, there’s a new sheriff in town.

So, unless something changes, everyone is dialed in for some lengthy weekend and even late-night sessions. It’s likely the Senate will confirm President Trump’s nominees.

But it might just take a while.

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