There are two distinct and clear things happening in American politics today that at first blush appear to be in direct conflict, President Donald Trump has had the best six months of any president in recent memory, and he is losing support in the polls.
How can this be?
In fact, the way to reconcile Trump’s signature successes with his drop in approval is to understand that the president has expended an enormous amount of political capital, sacrificing support today, in the hope of good results tomorrow.
The achievements of the Trump administration are truly breathtaking when taken as a whole, starting with his central campaign promise, to shut down the southern border.
In a funny way, Trump was too successful on the border for his own political good. Had he cut the number of entries in half by now, it would still have been a positive story for the president, but he brought it to zero, so the issue is all but gone and forgotten, and nobody is getting any credit for it.
Then we have the passage of the ‘big, beautiful bill, the largest tax cut in history packed with big political winners like no tax on overtime and tips, and passed by a tiny GOP majority in Congress.
While that was going on, Trump also attacked Iran’s nuclear facilities, badly damaging them and setting our geopolitical foe’s weapons program back years in a bold and perfectly executed mission.
Donald Trump has also unleashed his decades-long desire for higher tariffs to bolster American jobs and manufacturing, and after an all out panic from markets and pundits on ‘Liberation Day,’ back in April, the economy is now humming, largely free of inflation.
Last but not least, Trump, through his rescission package defunded NPR and PBS, something that has been the great white whale of many a conservative for many a year. They said it couldn’t be done, but Trump did it.
The scope, scale and speed of Trump’s triumphs are the good news, but they are always why his polling can get a bit jumpy, which is what we have seen over the past few weeks.
According to the Real Clear Politics average of polls, Trump has shed about 3.5 points since July 7th — not a drop off a cliff, but not nothing, either. It’s mostly down to how busy he has been.
Above were listed 5 major accomplishments. There are, to be sure, many voters who love all five, but there are also voters who like 3 or 4 but not the others, and in approval polling the stuff people don’t like is louder than stuff they do.
Two weeks ago on a trip to Texas, I reported on these warning signs, especially around the deportations of illegal aliens without any other criminal record that make many Americans, including some Trump supporters, queasy.
There is also an isolationist wing of the MAGA movement that hates the Iran strike, and even though its dire warnings of World War III fizzled like a cap gun in a hard rain, that still dinged the numbers.
Likewise, there are still plenty of individuals and industries that strongly dislike the tariffs, even if the economic sky hasn’t fallen.
The point here, as Abe Lincoln once put it, is that you can’t please all the people all the time, and when you do as much as Trump has, this quickly, you are sure to displease lots and lots of folks.
The real bet that the Trump administration is making is not on the short-term popularity of any of its top achievements, but rather that a year from now, they will have made the lives of Americans better.
Donald Trump, even with just one term this time around, is committed to leaving our nation a very different place in 2029 than he found it in 2025. To do this requires an all-out assault on institutions from the deep state, to academia, to the media.
Trump can’t poke as many political bears as he is without catching a few flesh wounds from the claws, but there is no sign of any imminent collapse that could thwart his overall efforts.
For six months, I have argued that Trump had all the runway he needed to put his plans in action. That was true, and he got a lot of planes up in the air, but the runway may be shortening now.
Now, all that is left is to judge the results of the Trumpian whirlwind of the past six months, and find out if this has been political capital well spent.
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