As the 2025 season comes down to the final weekend, you can say that mission was well accomplished.

Ten of the 15 final three-game series have some connection to either playoff qualification or seeding, with several head-to-head matchups affecting both teams. A look at the eight most important series, all of them concluding with virtually simultaneous 3 p.m. ET start times on Sunday:

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

At stake: For the Tigers (86-73), a puncher’s chance at the AL Central title they gifted to Cleveland, or the No. 3 wild card slot. The Red Sox (87-72) need one victory or a Houston loss to ensure a playoff berth, and two victories to hold onto the No. 2 wild card spot since Detroit holds the tiebreaker over them.

State of affairs: The Tigers could simply place a big “stock falling” emoji on the calendar in place of September. They’ve lost 15 of 21 games to give up all of their 9 1/2-game Central lead and imperil their playoff hopes. Snapping an eight-game losing streak to salvage a game against Cleveland (86-73) and pull even kept their division hopes alive, but the Guardians hold the tiebreaker. Detroit envisioned for weeks skipping Tarik Skubal’s scheduled start on Sunday, Sept. 28 and lining him up for the playoff opener. Instead, he may be pitching to save the season.

The Red Sox will let their playoff stock fall where it may without the services of ace and Cy Young contender Garrett Crochet. He recorded a key victory Wednesday against Toronto and won’t pitch in the final series, lined up for Game 1 of the wild card round. Assuming they get there.   

Pitching matchups: RH Casey Mize vs. LH Kyle Harrison; TBD vs. LH Connelly Early; LH Tarik Skubal vs. TBD.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

At stake: For the Reds, the third NL wild card spot, which they trail by one game. For the Brewers, the No. 1 seed in the NL and homefield advantage through the World Series.

State of affairs: You might as well take the September schedule and crumple it up instead of trying to predict Ws and Ls. The Reds swept the playoff-bound Cubs in four games before losing two games to last-place Pittsburgh, putting their hopes on life support. Noelvi Marte breathed life back into them with a game-saving catch in the series finale. They simply need to win one more game than the Mets – who finish at Miami – this weekend, and they’re in. (And also avoid a sweep while Arizona sweeps San Diego.)

The Brewers just need one win or a Phillies loss to nail down the majors’ best record. Yet for those thinking they’ll lay down once that’s secured, there’s five days off before their NL Division Series assignment, and they should give their regulars significant playing time through the weekend.

Pitching matchups: Reds RH Zack Littell (10-8, 3.86 ERA) vs. Brewers RH Quinn Priester (13-2, 3.25); Reds LH Andrew Abbott (9-7, 2.80) vs. TBD; Reds RH Brady Singer (14-11, 3.95) vs. TBD

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays; Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

At stake: Please excuse our paired entry, but this four-pack of AL East teams will determine the division title under remarkably similar circumstances.  Though the Blue Jays and Yankees (both 91-68) are playoff-bound, the weekend stakes are particularly large: The difference between hosting a wild card series beginning Tuesday or a bye into the AL Division Series, beginning Oct. 3. The Blue Jays hold the tiebreaker.

State of affairs: The Rays and Orioles both figured to contend for the division title, faded late and early, respectively, but remain credible opponents. The Blue Jays had a five-game lead with 11 to play, blew all of it and now need a sweep to ensure they don’t need the Orioles’ help in New York. They’re 9-7 since Bo Bichette went down with a knee injury.

The Yankees have been rock steady, going 15-7 this month and taking care of business with six wins in their past seven games against the White Sox and Orioles. But they couldn’t beat Orioles lefty Trevor Rogers last week at Camden Yards and will get another shot at him at Yankee Stadium.

Pitching matchups: Rays-Blue Jays: RH Adrian Houser (8-4, 3.18) vs. RH Shane Bieber (3-2, 3.57 ERA); RH Joe Boyle (1-3, 4.40 ERA) vs. RH Trey Yesavage (0-0, 5.00); LHP Ian Seymour (4-2, 2.85) vs. TBD. Orioles-Yankees: LH Trevor Rogers (9-2, 1.35) vs. RHP Will Warren; RH Tomoyuki Sugano (10-9, 4.54) vs. RHP Cam Schlittler; RH Kyle Bradish (1-1, 2.25) vs. RHP Luis Gil.

Texas Rangers at Cleveland Guardians

At stake: The Guardians (86-73) can win the AL Central by winning one more game than Detroit this weekend and their magic number is two over Houston to nail down a playoff spot as they own tiebreakers against both clubs.

State of affairs: They missed the kill shot on the Tigers in their series finale but no team is hotter than Cleveland, now 18-6 in September. The Rangers have lost nine of their last 10.

Pitching matchups: RH Jack Leiter (9-10, 3.92) vs. RHP Slade Cecconi (7-6, 4.15); TBD vs. TBD; TBD vs. TBD.  

New York Mets at Miami Marlins

At stake: The Mets (82-77) are a game ahead of Cincinnati (81-78) but do not hold the tiebreaker. So they need to stay a game ahead of the Reds.

State of affairs: Can a team survive an eight-game September losing streak and a record of 37-53 since June 12? The Mets are about to find out. Despite their longstanding woes, they come into Miami on a high, stealing a pair of games at Wrigley Field against the Cubs to keep the Reds and Diamondbacks at bay. Francisco Lindor joined Juan Soto in the 30-30 club with a home run in their series-clinching win at Chicago.

Miami is not your average spoiler. The Marlins have won 12 of their last 15 and are 40-36 since July 1.

Pitching matchups: RH Brandon Sproat vs. RH Sandy Alcantara; TBD vs. Eury Perez; TBD vs. Edward Cabrera.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres

At stake: The Diamondbacks (80-79) need a sweep to stay alive and hope the Reds and Mets each lose at least two of three. The Padres (87-72) can steal home field advantage in their wild card series with the Cubs (89-70) if they can make up two games this weekend since they hold the tiebreaker.

State of affairs: It’s a key weekend tuneup for the Padres, who will need to move on without outfielder Ramón Laureano, who suffered a finger fracture this week. Arizona’s last gasp will depend on its Jekyll-and-Hyde starting pitching showing its good side this weekend.

Pitching matchups: RH Zac Gallen (13-14, 4.70) vs. RH Yu Darvish (4-5, 5.51); LH Eduardo Rodriguez (9-8, 4.91) vs. RH Michael King (5-3, 3.57); RH Brandon Pfaadt (13-8, 5.00) vs. TBD.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Seattle Mariners

At stake: The Mariners (90-69) can clinch the top seed in the AL if they make up two games on the Blue Jays (or the Yankees if they win the East). And heck, since this very much looks like a World Series preview, home field advantage in a Fall Classic matchup against the Dodgers (90-69) is also at stake.

State of affairs: Lest we forget, Cal Raleigh can tie or break Aaron Judge’s AL home run record with two or three home runs this weekend; that would surely put a bow on his MVP case.

The Dodgers can’t improve their lot in the NL bracket but the three games remain an important tuneup as they workshop the notion of Rōki Sasaki rescuing their bullpen in October and Clayton Kershaw finding a comfy relief role, as well.

Pitching matchups: RH Emmet Sheehan (6-3, 2.86) vs. TBD; RH Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.30) vs. TBD; LH Clayton Kershaw (10-2, 3.52) vs. TBD.

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has shown significant improvement after a poor start to the season.
Simpson’s recent success came against weaker opponents, raising questions about his readiness for Georgia’s defense.
Georgia’s pass defense has shown vulnerability, particularly against deep throws in significant games.

Alabama has quietly put itself in position to do what it always does, and change the dynamics of the SEC race. 

By beating Georgia.

But before we take Kirby Smart’s Alabama Problem for another spin, or Georgia’s history of wilting against the Tide, let’s take a more reasonable assessment of a tangible and undeniable reality. 

The simplistic look at the rebirth of Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson.

From struggling first-year starter barely completing 50% of his passes in an ugly loss to FSU in the season opener, to a rising star after routs of Wisconsin and Louisiana-Monroe. Now Alabama is back on track, baby.

Now everything is right in the Crimson world again. 

Except Simpson’s surge came against a Louisiana-Monroe defense that’s 124th in the nation against the pass, and a Wisconsin program at its lowest point since the early 1990s. In other words, Simpson has been stressed once in his first three starts. 

And failed miserably. 

“When Ty starts fast, guys can feel that,” Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb said. “They all feed off the other when they feel that sense of control in the game. Everyone is feeling a lot more confident.”

Feelings. So that’s where we are, everyone.

Not about what happened when the Alabama offense failed to show up again in a big game on the road (continuing last year’s mess), or that Georgia will be — far and away — the best defense the Tide has faced. It’s about a sense of control.

Feelings, for the love of Saban.

But maybe there’s something to this theoretical pitch that a sense of good equals good. Because even though Alabama’s two games since the season-opening meltdown at FSU have been against wildly inferior competition, Simpson still played nearly flawlessly. 

It’s hard to argue with completing 89% of your passes for 608 yards and seven touchdowns. And no turnovers. 

The ball is going downfield at an impressive rate (13.2 yards per attempt), and Alabama is stretching the field with its most dynamic and dangerous weapons (wideouts Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard).

The explosion plays have arrived, and Alabama hasn’t looked this efficient in the pass game since Bryce Young had a TD/INT ratio of 79/12 from 2021-22. The Tide has 41 pass plays this season of 10-plus yards, including 15 of 20-plus. 

Then there’s this: Georgia hasn’t covered the deep ball well since 2023, and was routinely beat deep last season (including the Alabama loss). Earlier this month, in its only game of significance this season, Georgia gave up multiple deep throws to new Tennessee starting quarterback Joey Aguilar.

Georgia has played one game of significance, and in that game (an overtime win over Tennessee), the pass defense gave up 371 yards and four touchdowns, and 10.3 average yards per attempt. While the defense got two interceptions, a significant trend from last season has been largely ignored because one of the best kickers in the SEC duffed a makable field goal that allowed Georgia to win the game in overtime.

If Tennessee beats Georgia, the entire focus of the past two weeks would’ve been struggles in the secondary — deficiencies that go all the way back to Alabama’s crazy 41-34 win over Georgia in 2024. 

That’s when Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe — not exactly the cleanest of throwers — had 374 yards and two touchdowns, and averaged 11.3 yards per attempt. Williams had seven catches for 177 yards, including an acrobatic 75-yard, game-winning deep ball.

Simpson isn’t the athlete Milroe is, but he’s a better thrower and all three levels are available in the pass game because of his accuracy. At least, his accuracy the past two games against two nobodies. 

There’s a somebody on the sideline this time around. And it’s not as simple as what worked against the nobodies spilling over into the biggest game of the SEC season. 

“We’re focused on moving with a purpose,” Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer said. “Everything we do, just move with an urgency level that just has great body language and become contagious across the team.”

Feelings and body language. A contagious urgency. 

This is where we are at Alabama.  

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. 

Recent meetings among CFP stakeholders have ended without a decision to expand the playoff beyond 12 teams.
A 12-team field is seen as a good balance, making the regular season more exciting without being too large.

Twelve is the number. It’s like the number 10, except better.

Twelve days of Christmas. Twelve months in a year, 12 inches in a foot, 12 hours on a clock. Eggs by the dozen.

A package of 12 chilled cans, each filled with 12 ounces of goodness.

Now, let’s hear it for 12 teams in the College Football Playoff.

We’ve heard the potential playoff expansion formats that range from the rational to the ridiculous. Fourteen teams? Sixteen? Thirty-two? Play-in games? Rig the format to Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti’s liking?

Forget that. Twelve is the number.

The longer these playoff negotiations go, the more likely that 12 stays the number.

Another meeting of CFP stakeholders came and went this week in Illinois with no resolution behind playoff expansion. Every meeting of conference commissioners that doesn’t conclude with an agreement for playoff expansion takes us a step closer to the 12-team playoff staying in place for at least the 2026 season.

‘My sense is the room’s comfortable with (staying at 12), if that’s where we go,’ CFP executive director Rich Clark told reporters after the latest meeting ended with no decision.

The deadline to alter the playoff’s size or structure for next season remains Dec. 1.

I wouldn’t mind if, come Dec. 2, there’s still no decision to expand the playoff. Because the longer this goes, the more I think 12 is the number — a number worth keeping in place for at least the 2026 season. And maybe beyond that.

Let’s get a peek at how the playoff operates this year, now that first-round byes are not exclusive to conference champions and instead will be awarded off straight seeding.

I’m loving the shape of college football’s regular season with a 12-team playoff as the backdrop. The field is big enough that everyone from Georgia Tech to UNLV to Memphis to Missouri can hunt for a playoff bid. But it’s not so big that an 8-4 Big Ten team could slither into the field — which is exactly what could happen if Petitti got his wish for an expanded playoff with play-in games.

The regular season didn’t lose significance. To the contrary, it became more exciting. A 12-team playoff strikes the perfect balance of bringing dozens of teams into playoff contention, while ensuring that Saturday to Saturday results remain consequential.

A team isn’t eliminated by a single loss, or even two, but the losses inflict damage. Think Alabama feels great about its playoff quest after a Week 1 beatdown at Florida State?

A 12-team playoff isn’t elitist, but it remains fairly exclusive. It’s tidy enough to fit into four rounds.

In the offseason, the Big 12 and ACC put their limited weight behind a 16-team playoff format that would add four additional at-large bids. That plan attracted some attention from the SEC. The Big Ten resisted, favoring instead its own proposal that featured a stacked deck of automatic bids.

I didn’t mind the Big 12/ACC idea for a 5+11 playoff, with four extra spots for at-large teams. But as another thrilling season unfolds, bound for a 12-team crescendo, I’m becoming less enamored with 16.

Give me a playoff big enough that Vanderbilt harbors hope of qualifying on the heels of a dream season, but restricted enough that Clemson’s chances are appropriately underwater after three losses through four games.

That’s this format. What say we keep it? Open the fridge, crack a can, and let’s toast a 12-ounce gulp to this delicious 12-team format.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s senior national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

The lawsuit alleges the NCAA violated Title IX by allowing transgender athletes to compete in women’s sports.
Claims against the University System of Georgia and Georgia Tech were dismissed by the judge.
The NCAA has until early 2026 to conduct discovery on whether it is a federal funding recipient.

A lawsuit brought by former University of Kentucky swimmer Riley Gaines and nearly two dozen other athletes against the NCAA was largely dismissed on Thursday, however, a judge ruled the Title IX claims against the NCAA can proceed to the next stage, which is likely to be discovery.

The original class-action lawsuit was filed in March 2024, with Gaines and others alleging the NCAA and Georgia Tech knowingly violated Title IX, a five-decade-old federal mandate that guarantees equal opportunity for men and women in college athletics, thereby challenging the eligibility of transgender athletes to participate in competition.

The University System of Georgia and the Georgia Tech Athletic Association were the other original defendants in the case and were granted their motion to dismiss.

Georgia Tech was the host institution of the 2022 NCAA Division I Women’s Swimming and Diving Championships, in which Penn swimmer Lia Thomas, a transgender athlete, won the 500-yard freestyle title and tied for fifth in the 200-yard freestyle, with Gaines in the event.

U.S. District Judge Tiffany R. Johnson said in her ruling, obtained by USA TODAY Sports, that the issue of the lawsuit’s issues with Georgia and Georgia Tech was a moot point.

Johnson cited NCAA v. Tarkanian (1988) in dismissing the constitutional claims against the NCAA, stating the NCAA is a nonprofit organization and most public universities are under state control.

“Much like UNLV’s decision to follow the NCAA’s rules did not transform the NCAA’s rulemaking into state action,” Johnson wrote in her ruling, “all of the schools that participated in the 2022 Championships did not transform the NCAA policy on transgender athletes into state action.” She added the “Plaintiffs’ argument that the NCAA is a stand in for, effectively, every state in the country is illogical when the Supreme Court has already determined its involvement with one state was too attenuated to constitute state action.” 

In January 2025, President Donald Trump issued Executive Order No. 14168 titled ‘Defending Women from Gender Ideology Extremism and Restoring Biological Truth to the Federal Government,’ and the next month, the NCAA put forth a new policy banning athletes who were born male from competing on women’s teams.

The case now proceeds to the defendant’s repeated claims that the NCAA is liable for violating Title IX, which may include discovery documents such as emails and other relevant correspondence.

‘College sports remain the premier stage for women’s sports in America, and the Association and its members will continue to promote Title IX, make unprecedented investments in women’s sports, and ensure fair competition in NCAA championships. The NCAA’s transgender participation policy aligns with the Trump administration’s order,’ the NCAA said in a statement.

The NCAA has until Oct. 9 to file its answer in the case, and has 90 days, ‘through and including January 7, 2026, to conduct limited discovery on the sole issue of whether the NCAA is a federal funding recipient through its partnership with the Department of Defense.’

The Florida Panthers’ defense of their back-to-back Stanley Cup championships is facing a serious challenge even before the season opens Oct. 7.

Panthers captain Aleksander Barkov is having surgery on his right knee, coach Paul Maurice told reporters Friday. Barkov was injured during Thursday’s practice and needed assistance standing up and getting off the ice.

Maurice said he hoped to have a timeline later in the day.

Barkov has won the Selke Trophy three times as the NHL’s top defensive forward, including the last two seasons.

Friday’s news means the Panthers will be without three forwards who helped them win the Stanley Cup last season.

Forwards Matthew Tkachuk and Tomas Nosek are out after offseason surgery, with Tkachuk expected back ‘December-ish’ and Nosek expected to miss months.

Aleksander Barkov stats

Barkov centers the Panthers’ top line and has been captain since the 2018-19 season.

He ranked second on the Panthers in the 2024-25 regular season with 71 points, despite missing 15 games. He had another 22 points in 23 games in the playoffs to help the Panthers win a second consecutive title.

Tkachuk had 23 points in the playoffs after returning from a 4 Nations Face-Off injury. Nosek played a key role in helping the Panthers overcome a 2-0 series deficit against the Toronto Maple Leafs when Maurice changed up his fourth line.

President Donald Trump suggested he could move World Cup matches away from host cities he deems unsafe, while speaking from the oval office on Thursday, Sept. 25.  

Trump was asked by a reporter about the potential for moving World Cup games from Seattle and San Francisco – two of the 11 host cities in the United States.  

“Well, that’s an interesting question … but we’re going to make sure they’re safe,” Trump said – adding Seattle and San Francisco are “run by radical left lunatics who don’t know what they’re doing.” 

World Cup venues were announced in February with Atlanta, Boston, Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, Kansas City, Miami, New York/New Jersey and Philadelphia also slated to host matches next summer.  

It’s unclear how feasible it would be for Trump or FIFA to relocate a host city just months prior to the tournament co-hosted by Canada and Mexico from June 11 to July 19, 2026.  

However, Trump did mention Memphis and Chicago as possible options.  

“As you probably know, we’re going into Memphis and we’re going into some other cities. Very soon we’re going into Chicago. It will be safe for the World Cup.” 

Seattle’s Lumen Field – considered one of the best soccer venues in the country – will host at least one match featuring the U.S. men’s national team on June 19 and six matches in total.  

Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., roughly 40 miles from San Francisco, will also host six matches.   

‘If I think it’s not safe, we’re going to move it out of that city. So, if any city we think is going to be even a little bit dangerous for the World Cup, or for the (2028) Olympics … but for the World Cup in particular, because they’re playing in so many cities, we won’t allow it.  

“We’ll move it around a little bit. But I hope that’s not going to happen.” 

The Dec. 5 World Cup draw at the Kennedy Center in Washington, D.C.  will set the schedule for all 48 clubs participating in the tournament.

Only the three host nations know where their matches will be played before the draw: The USMNT will also play twice in Los Angeles on June 12 and June 25.  

Mexico will open the tournament in Mexico City on June 11, play in Guadalajara on June 18, and return to Mexico City on June 24.  

Canada plays group stage matches in Toronto on June 12, and in Vancouver on June 18 and June 24.  

The 2028 Olympics will be hosted in Los Angeles. 

No. 2 Penn State’s upcoming game against No. 5 Oregon is a critical test of their national championship potential.
The Nittany Lions’ non-conference schedule against weaker opponents has provided little insight into their ability to compete with top-tier teams.
Coach James Franklin and quarterback Drew Allar are under significant pressure to perform well in this high-stakes matchup.

This is the moment for James Franklin and No. 2 Penn State.

No. 1 Ohio State looms in early November. Should the current US LBM Coaches Poll hold, the Nittany Lions’ trip to Columbus would be the Big Ten’s first No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup since Ohio State and Michigan faced off in 2006. No. 12 Indiana comes to Beaver Stadium a week later.

Those games will decide the Big Ten standings and which teams meet for the conference championship. But no game on Penn State’s schedule will influence the regular season more than Saturday’s home game against No. 5 Oregon, a high-profile and high-stakes matchup that will help answer one of the biggest questions of this season:

Are the Nittany Lions really built to capture the program’s first national championship in almost 40 years?

Did Penn State schedule prepare it for Oregon?

Don’t look to non-conference play for any answers on the Nittany Lions. Games against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova were one-sided blowouts, as expected, giving little insight into how Penn State will perform against one of the best teams in the Bowl Subdivision.

The Nittany Lions are the only team in this week’s Coaches Poll to have not played at least one Power Four opponent and one of two without a Power Four win, joining No. 7 Texas.

Despite the overmatched competition, the Nittany Lions’ offense heads into Saturday ranked just 41st nationally in yards per play and 46th in yards per game. While the offense has seemingly been purposefully vanilla and has rarely played starters in the fourth quarter, the relative lack of production stands in contrast to last year’s explosive performance in non-conference play.

“I don’t know if saving is the idea, but you’ve done some offseason studies where there are certain things that you worked on during training camp that you’re planning on using against certain opponents,” Franklin said.

“And there’s some things, could you have used them early in the season but you didn’t feel like you needed to? Yeah, I think that’s always the case. But it’s not like offensive coordinators, defense coordinators, head coaches, you’re going into a game saying we’re going to be conservative in this game. Or vanilla.”

The performance in the first three games is in stark contrast to last season’s opening schedule. In 2024, the Nittany Lions averaged 8.1 yards per play in games against West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. Quarterback Drew Allar had 11 touchdowns and averaged 12.3 yards per attempt, compared to five scores and 7.4 yards per pass through the first three games of this season. Another warning sign has come on third down: PSU’s conversion rate of just 38.9% ranks 77th in the FBS.

“I think it’s always an ongoing process throughout the year no matter what,” Allar said. “I don’t think you ever find yourself in the spot you want to be, really throughout the whole year. We’re always going to be a constantly evolving offense.”

Experience, a deep cast of skill talent, a dramatically improved offensive front and the framework for another top-ranked defense have framed the Nittany Lions as one of the elite teams in the Power Four. But the Ducks will put this theory to the test.

Oregon continues to dominate in regular season

This easy stretch to open September ends against an opponent that has yet to lose a regular-season Big Ten game since joining the conference last year.

Oregon entered the debut 12-team College Football Playoff as the only unbeaten team in the FBS before losing in its Rose Bowl quarterfinal to eventual national champion Ohio State. The Ducks closed out the regular season by beating Penn State 45-37 for the Big Ten championship.

Oregon has already played a pair of Power Four teams in Oklahoma State and Northwestern along with a rivalry win against Oregon State. The Ducks have an average margin of victory of 41.5 points per game.

Nearly every metric puts Oregon at or near the top of the FBS. The Ducks are one of two teams in the top eight nationally in scoring offense and defense, along with Indiana. They’ve given up just one sack and committed only 14 penalties, including a penalty-free game against the Wildcats. Defensively, Oregon has given up just four touchdowns and is one of four teams to not allow a touchdown through the air.

“Going against a team like this is going to be fun for sure,” wide receiver Penn State Kyron Hudson said.

This makes Oregon the ultimate test of the Nittany Lions’ fitness as a title contender. This is an opponent with no obvious weaknesses, one that has already proven itself to be the best team in college football – after all, the Ducks spent weeks of last season as the unquestioned No. 1.

“Tremendous challenge. Tremendous opportunity,” said Franklin. “You know, obviously we need this place rocking. Need to have a distinct home-field advantage. We always do, but I’m expecting this to be an environment like no one has ever seen.”

James Franklin, Drew Allar under pressure

No two individuals carry as much weight and pressure into Saturday as Allar and Franklin.

The senior quarterback went into the offseason shouldering the blame for the Nittany Lions’ 27-24 loss to Notre Dame in the national semifinals. With the game tied and under a minute to play, Allar made a misguided attempt over the middle of the field that was intercepted by the Fighting Irish, setting up the go-ahead field goal with seven seconds to play.

Now in his third year as the starter and already established as one of the top passers in program history, Allar’s performance in non-conference play suggests some carryover from that disappointing finish.

But beating Oregon and outplaying sophomore counterpart Dante Moore would erase any lingering fallout from his late interception against the Irish and reestablish Allar as one of the top quarterbacks in the FBS.

A win would also rewrite the narrative around the Nittany Lions’ failures against top-ranked competition. All three of last year’s losses – Ohio State, Oregon, Notre Dame – came against top-five competition.

“I just think we’re in a much different place in terms of the confidence and the execution that it takes to play in these type of games,” Franklin said. 

But losses against top competition have come to define his tenure. While the Nittany Lions have won 71.2% of their games since Franklin was hired in 2014, Franklin is just 1-13 in matchups against opponents in the top five of the Associated Press poll, with the one win coming against Ohio State in 2016.

Losing to Oregon would stoke additional skepticism over Franklin’s ability to lead Penn State over the hurdle separating the very good teams in the Power Four from the very best. In a more concrete sense, a loss would require the Nittany Lions to split those November games against the Buckeyes and Hoosiers and win out otherwise to guarantee an at-large playoff berth.

But the impact of a win on Saturday can’t be overstated. Franklin would get the result his program has craved for nearly a decade. The Nittany Lions would have a case for replacing Ohio State atop the US LBM Coaches Poll; beating Oregon would be more impressive than the Buckeyes’ win against No. 7 Texas in the season opener.

And a win would answer the question: Penn State is ready to beat the best of the best and is built to bring home a national championship.

“I think all these types of games come down to four to six plays on offense, four to six plays on defense,” said Franklin. “I expect this to be a four-quarter battle that’s going to come down to the end of the game. And I like how we’re preparing to handle the moment.”