The College Football Playoff race is taking shape as the season passes its midway point.
Teams are generally separated into three tiers: those in the driver’s seat, a second tier of contenders, and those needing help.
The SEC has multiple front-runners, including Texas A&M, Alabama, and Georgia.

The race for the College Football Playoff is rounding into form as the regular season passes the midway point and heads toward the debut rankings in early November.

That’s not to say that things are clear. Actually, the situation in the Power Four has only started to coalesce around teams separated into three categories:

One, teams that are currently in the driver’s seat. That includes most Power Four teams with one loss.

Two, the second tier of teams just behind the front-runners. These teams are either tied for first or within one game of first place in the conference standings.

And three, teams still in the mix but in need of some help across the board in the Power Four.

Based on these tiers, USA TODAY Sports breaks down the playoff picture in each of the major conferences:

Big Ten

In the driver’s seat: No. 1 Ohio State (7-0), No. 2 Indiana (7-0), No. 6 Oregon (6-1).

All three teams are among the most likely to make the playoff based on what they’ve achieved to date, each team’s remaining schedule and the fact that OSU and the Hoosiers could both be unbeaten when they face off in the Big Ten championship game. Oregon could lose another game and still be a lock.

The second tier: No. 24 Michigan (5-2), Southern California (5-2).

USC handed the Wolverines their one Big Ten loss, while the Trojans’ conference loss came on a last-second field goal to Illinois. USC could’ve secured firmer playoff positioning with a win against No. 12 Notre Dame. It seems more likely than not that Michigan plays Ohio State in the finale with an at-large bid on the line.

Needing help: Iowa (5-2), Illinois (5-2).

Iowa is one game out of first in the standings and have dropped competitive games to ranked teams in Indiana and Iowa State. The Hawkeyes’ most realistic path is via a conference championship. Illinois owns the tiebreaker against USC, but losses to the Hoosiers and Buckeyes will require a perfect close to the regular season and maybe even some help in the Big Ten and elsewhere.

SEC

In the driver’s seat: No. 3 Texas A&M (7-0), No. 4 Alabama (6-1), No. 5 Georgia (6-1).

Texas A&M might be the least respected of these three SEC front-runners, but you can’t argue against an unbeaten record that includes a huge road win against the Fighting Irish. At this point, it’s hard to see how the Tide and Bulldogs finish out of the field.

The second tier: No. 8 Mississippi (6-1), No. 11 Oklahoma (6-1), No. 12 Vanderbilt (6-1), No. 14 Missouri (6-1).

Even if none of these teams play for the SEC crown, each has a clear path toward an at-large bid by ending the regular season with fewer than three losses. While we only have one year of evidence at our disposal, the cutoff point for the at-large window seems like two defeats, though exceptions could easily be made to slide in a qualified three-loss contender.

Maybe the most intriguing team in this group are the Rebels, who have often looked the part of a playoff team but could be in danger of sliding into the needing-help category with a loss this weekend at Oklahoma.

Needing help: No. 17 Tennessee (5-2), No. 18 Texas (5-2), No. 19 LSU (5-2).

The Volunteers haven’t beaten anyone, though they should get credit for playing Georgia tight in an overtime loss. Texas has a strong neutral-site win against the Sooners but have looked very average otherwise. The Tigers are still alive, technically, and can climb into a better position by beating the Aggies and Crimson Tide in their next two games.

ACC

In the driver’s seat: No. 7 Georgia Tech (7-0), No. 9 Miami (6-1).

Off to the program’s best start in over 50 years, the Yellow Jackets could be knocked out of the playoff by dropping just one of four remaining ACC games, losing to Georgia in the season finale and then losing in the conference championship game. On the flip side, the Jackets could be close to a playoff lock if 11-0 when meeting the Bulldogs. Miami is good shape thanks to non-conference wins against Notre Dame and No. 20 South Florida.

The second tier: No. 16 Virginia (6-1), No. 22 Louisville (5-1), SMU (5-2).

Louisville’s back in the conversation after knocking off the Hurricanes. Virginia has a bad loss to North Carolina State and barely sneaked past Florida State, the Cardinals and Washington State. SMU is still perfect in the ACC but has to win the league to reach the playoff after non-conference losses to Baylor and TCU.

Needing help: Pittsburgh (5-2), Duke (4-3), California (5-2).

Given how much uncertainty there is in the ACC, this threesome can’t be eliminated as playoff contenders despite each having one ACC loss and at least two losses overall. Duke is the biggest wild card after losing to three very good teams in Illinois, Tulane and Georgia Tech but destroying Syracuse and California on the road.

Big 12

In the driver’s seat: No. 10 Brigham Young (7-0), No. 21 Cincinnati (6-1), No. 25 Arizona State (5-2), No. 15 Texas Tech (6-1).

BYU has been one of the biggest surprises in the Power Four after losing quarterback Jake Retzlaff to the transfer portal. But road trips to Ames, Lubbock and Cincinnati could knock the Cougars out of contention. Cincinnati is the only other team still unbeaten in conference play and Arizona State is one game behind with a huge tiebreaker over Texas Tech. The Red Raiders still look like the most talented team in the conference and could definitely win out from here.

The second tier: Houston (6-1).

Houston’s one league loss came to the Red Raiders, but the Cougars can partially offset that tiebreaker with a win this weekend at ASU.

Needing help: Iowa State (5-2), TCU (5-2).

Iowa State has dropped two in a row to fall behind the pack. The Horned Frogs can play their way in with November wins against the Cyclones, Cougars and Bearcats.

LOS ANGELES — Jimmy Butler scored 31 points and was 16-for-16 from the free throw line, but don’t stop the presses.

While the two stars delivered again for the Golden State Warriors in a 119-109 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Tuesday, Oct. 22, it was another player on the NBA’s opening night that warranted special attention.

Making a surprise start, he scored 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting from the floor, had a team-high nine rebounds and six assists, one shy of his career high. He also was 4-for-6 from 3-point range.

Asked to describe his performance against the Lakers, Kuminga said it was ‘decent.’

That prompted looks of amusement in the interview room. Draymond Green called Kuminga a star, and Curry and Butler also spoke about him in glowing terms.

Entering his fifth NBA season, Kuminga looks like the potential missing piece for a team that relies heavily – perhaps too heavily – on its aging stars. Butler is 36 and Curry is 37.

Last year Kuminga fell out of the Warriors rotation. On Tuesday at Crypto.com Arena, it was hard to fathom.

He guarded Luka Doncic, who scored a game-high 43 points. But he played well enough for the Warriors to eschew double teams.

‘I think he just has a better sense of what’s needed now compared to the past years,’ Warriors coach Steve Kerr said.

If the Warriors hope to contend for a championship, they’ll need Kuminga more than ever.

A mentor emerges for Warriors

Butler has become a mentor for Kuminga.

‘I just want to help JK be great,’ Butler said. ‘… We’ve been kickin’ it. Hanging out. Watching film and just working on our game together. I know how great he wants to be and how great he can be.’

Kuminga said his time with Butler has helped and explained what he’s getting.

‘Just his knowledge of the game, as much as he knows,’ he said.

Kerr said he’s seen the impact.

‘I think Jimmy has really helped him too,’ Kerr said. ‘Jimmy has really talked him out a lot during (preseason) camp. He’s taken him aside after practices.’

More than a mentor

Butler’s contributions to the team on the court transcend the box score, according to Kerr.

‘He provides that stability and the ability to foul to go to line and settle the game down,’ Kerr said. ‘He never turns the ball over so he just controls some game out there.’

Draymond and Curry create chaos, Kerr noted.

‘… the chaos is really powerful, it can also get away from us,’ Kerr added. ‘Jimmy just settles us down.’

College football programs are increasingly willing to pay massive buyouts to fire underperforming coaches.
Even successful coaches like Penn State’s James Franklin are being fired, receiving nearly $50 million in buyout money.
The high cost of firing a coach often leads to another expensive, fully guaranteed contract for their replacement.

Wasn’t that long ago when it was just the outliers, Texas A&M and Auburn, consistently throwing tens of millions of good money at bad coaches. 

Then Penn State took win-at-all-cost and blew it off the map.

Now here we are, midway through the season, and — I can’t believe I’m writing this — the one coach who’s running his program his way, and doesn’t give a flip what you think, has been brought to heel. 

That was Brian Kelly earlier this week, standing at a podium during his weekly LSU news conference, and apologizing to the fans. 

“We want to do better for our fan base, we get that,” Kelly said. “And some are saying I’m not getting it done now, I get that. I recognize everybody’s angst.”

When Brian Kelly — who fought the most invasively meddling structure in college football at Notre Dame, and won — walks into a news conference and begins to apologize for the play of his team and how he has coached, we’ve arrived at a seminal moment in the sport. 

If coaches thought they were losing control in the age of player empowerment, it reached another level when Penn State fired coach James Franklin six games after leading the Nittany Lions to within one play of playing for the national championship. 

Before we get all the feels for Franklin or any other coach with significantly shorter leashes, they’re walking away with millions upon millions of go away cash. Franklin got nearly $50 million in buyout money, and Billy Napier got nearly $21 million from Florida.

The days of only Texas A&M (hello, Jimbo Fisher, Kevin Sumlin, Dennis Franchione) and Auburn (every coach, ever) with the guts to pay ridiculous buyouts to move on and reset the program, are long gone. And every coach knows it. 

That’s why Kelly — who as recent as last month was arguing with a media member after a win over Florida, declaring “you’re spoiled” because LSU wasn’t as efficient offensively as previous years under Kelly — began a critical week of his tenure with a mea culpa. 

And make no mistake, that absolutely was a rare hat-in-hand moment for an old school, my way works just watch, coach.

“I hope our fan base understands that we’re disappointed,” Kelly said. “We are committed to getting better every single day.”

I’m not a mind reader, but that sure sounds like a coach who has been told — in no uncertain terms — he’s losing the fan base. And when you lose the fan base, you lose your job.

LSU would still have to round up about $54 million to buy out Kelly from his contract (the second-highest buyout ever), but if Penn State is willing to fire a coach who was a play away from playing for it all in 2024, you better believe LSU can, too. 

Franklin, like Kelly, spoke glowingly of his team in the offseason. Both said this was their best team, both embraced championship expectations.

Now one is unemployed and sitting on the set of ESPN’s ‘College GameDay’, explaining how shocked he was his athletic director walked into the room and said we’re making a change. 

The other is standing at a news conference apologizing to his fans, while staring at unbeaten Texas A&M rolling into the Red Stick with the type of team that not only could give LSU its third loss of the season — but do it emphatically. 

The kind of loss that guts a fan base and shakes the knees of those debating whether to throw more good money after bad to go down another unknown road. But the answers are right in front of them — full of rich, undeniable irony. 

Texas A&M paid Jimbo Fisher $77.5 million in buyout money to fire him, and then hired Mike Elko. In two years, Elko has the unbeaten Aggies in the Top 5 of the latest US LBM Coaches Poll going into Saturday’s game at LSU. 

And if LSU does choose to fire Kelly at some point this season, there’s no escaping the reality that awaits. To get another high-level coach, LSU will have to structure a near identical contract to Kelly’s. 

In other words, a fully guaranteed deal that, odds are, they’ll be buying out again at some point over the course of the contract. It’s a CDB world, baby. 

Cost of Doing Business. 

Curt Cignetti has coached 20 games at Indiana (18 wins), and because the Hoosiers want to protect him from Power conference poachers, his deal was just extended to $93 million over eight years. Fully guaranteed. 

Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter says he’s working on a(nother) contract extension for coach Lane Kiffin, who will be heavily courted by Florida and any other major blueblood program looking for a coach.

If he leaves or stays at Ole Miss, Kiffin will likely become one of the top five paid coaches in college football. With a fully guaranteed deal, no less. 

“Our fan base wants positive outcomes, I get that,” Kelly said. “There’s nothing that brings a community together better than an LSU victory.”

Or a new coach, and a fresh start. 

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. 

The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s modern-era candidate list for the Class of 2006 has been reduced from 128 to 52.
First-ballot candidates Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore, and Jason Witten advanced to the next round.
The list will be further cut to 25 semifinalists in December, and then to 15 finalists.

And then there were 52.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame on Wednesday, Oct. 22, announced results of the first cutdown of modern-era candidates for the Class of 2006, as its screening committee reduced an initial list of 128 former players to 52 candidates to be considered by the full selection committee.

As expected, Drew Brees, Larry Fitzgerald, Frank Gore and Jason Witten were among first-ballot candidates to advance as the process ramps up. The screening committee aimed to reduce to ballot to 50 modern-era candidates, yet the number was slightly expanded due to ties.

The next round of voting will reduce the list to 25 semifinalists by early December, followed by a reduction to 15 finalists. The final voting in January will include three finalists from the seniors category, plus one coach finalist and one finalist as a contributor.

Four modern-era candidates – Willie Anderson, Torry Holt, Luke Kuechly and Adam Vinatieri – have automatically advanced to the group of 15 finalists because, as stipulated by the Hall’s bylaws, they finished among the final seven in last year’s voting.

Pro Football Hall of Fame modern-era candidates by position

Quarterbacks: Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers.

Running Backs: Warrick Dunn, Eddie George, Frank Gore, Marshawn Lynch, LeSean McCoy, Lorenzo Neal, Fred Taylor, Ricky Watters.

Wide Receivers: Anquan Boldin, Larry Fitzgerald, Torry Holt, Jimmy Smith, Steve Smith, Sr., Hines Ward, Reggie Wayne.

Tight Ends: Greg Olsen, Jason Witten.

Offensive Linemen: Willie Anderson, Lomas Brown, Ruben Brown, Jahri Evans, Olin Kreutz, Nick Mangold, Logan Mankins, Maurkice Pouncey, Richmond Webb, Erik Williams, Steve Wisniewski, Marshal Yanda.

Defensive Linemen: John Abraham, Robert Mathis, Haloti Ngata, Simeon Rice, Vince Wilfork, Kevin Williams.

Linebackers: London Fletcher, James Harrison, Kuechly Kuechly, Terrell Suggs.

Defensive Backs: Rodney Harrison, Asante Samuel, Earl Thomas, Charles Tillman, Troy Vincent, Darren Woodson.

Punters/Kickers: Gary Anderson, Shane Lechler, Adam Vinatieri.

Special Teams: Brian Mitchell.

Contact Jarrett Bell at jbell@usatoday.com or follow on  X: @JarrettBell

The Denver Broncos overcame a 19-point fourth-quarter deficit to defeat the New York Giants 33-32.
Hall of Fame coach Tony Dungy noted that mistakes by the leading team often contribute to such large comebacks.
The game was part of a trend this season, with a record 30 games decided in the final two minutes or overtime through Week 7.

As much as Tony Dungy was impressed by the huge comeback the Denver Broncos pulled off on Oct. 19, the Hall of Fame coach was taken aback by the big collapse.

Sure, the Broncos rallied from a 19-point, fourth-quarter deficit to make history with a 33-32 victory that marks some serious Mile High magic.

But by the same token, boy did the New York Giants blow it.

“When we see these big comebacks, usually you have the team that’s ahead making some mistakes that allow it to happen,” Dungy, an analyst for NBC’s “Football Night in America,” told USA TODAY Sports. “That’s part of it, too.”

It’s a half-full, half-empty takeaway lesson from comebacks – and collapses – that are increasingly in the mix with so many NFL games going down to the wire. Already this season, 30 games have been decided by winning scores in the final two minutes of regulation or in overtime – the most-ever through Week 7 – to underscore a barrage of last-minute lead changes.

Of course, the drama at Empower Field on Sunday took it to another level. It turned out to be the NFL’s “Game of the Year.” At least so far. The Broncos were the first team since 1970 to overcome an 18-point deficit with six minutes left to win in regulation.

“It is rare. Maybe not Shohei Ohtani rare, but it is rare,” James Lofton, the Hall of Fame receiver, tapping a World Series vibe, told USA TODAY Sports.

The classic game deserves this special review from a pair of legends.

Broncos comeback shows ‘no ‘normal’ lead is safe’ in today’s NFL

“There are so many factors that make a difference,” Lofton said. “Bottom line, no ‘normal’ lead is safe.”

Lofton knows this intimately. He was a member of the Buffalo Bills when they rallied from a 35-3 deficit with backup quarterback Frank Reich to hang a 41-38 overtime stunner on the Houston Oilers in a 1992 AFC wild-card matchup. It was the largest comeback in NFL playoff history.

“I remember Marv just kept saying, ‘You can’t think about the scoreboard,’ ” Lofton recalled, referring to Bills coach Marv Levy.

Dungy has vivid memories of striking comebacks, too, from his roll as Indianapolis Colts coach, when he collaborated with Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning.

To advance to Super Bowl 41, the Colts rallied from a 21-3 deficit against the New England Patriots in the 2006 AFC title game. Before that, Dungy celebrated his 48th birthday in 2003 with a Monday night return to Tampa to face the Buccaneers for the first time since that franchise fired him. It was amazing theatre. The Colts became the first team to win after trailing by 21 points in the final four minutes of regulation.  

“So many of these teams practice up-tempo and no-huddle, which was a big thing for us,” Dungy said, reflecting on the urgency of the moment. “That was our whole game. I think these teams practicing at the line of scrimmage and knowing how to do it, when you get into the 2-minute drills, it’s not just new stuff.”

Dungy, though, had a sharper tone when specifically pondering the Giants’ meltdown, which fueled many questions about New York coach Brian Daboll’s game-management.

“Doesn’t the coach, don’t you tell the team when you go out there and it’s 26-16, with 5 minutes to go, ‘OK, we’ve got to stay inbounds. Use the 40-second clock. Whatever you do, you can’t turn the ball over. We can’t get penalties,’ ” Dungy said. “Those are things I would preach when we’re ahead.

“They used, I think, 30 seconds, 27 seconds, and threw an interception when they’re ahead by 10 points. That contributes to it. That makes it happen.”

The wild fourth quarter included two deflected TD receptions, two Bo Nix TD runs, two 2-point conversions and a missed PAT. And then some.

Maybe the Broncos don’t get a miracle without inside linebacker Justin Strnad’s interception of rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart’s third-down throw from New York’s 35-yard line with just under five minutes on the clock. Strnad returned the pick 21 yards to the 19, setting up the short TD pass from Nix to RJ Harvey that, with the PAT, cut the lead to 26-23.

Broncos coach Sean Payton said it was “like a double whammy” to get the premium field position that allowed them to quickly convert the turnover into a score.

“That probably was the difference in winning and losing the game,” Payton said.

Payton, whose team (5-2) won a fourth consecutive game to seize sole possession of first place in the AFC West, told his young quarterback that when he’s around long enough he’ll be in “five or six” wild comeback games.

“You just hope when you’re done that you won more than you lost,” he said.

‘This is a crazy league.’ Broncos rally was as brilliant as Giants meltdown was baffling

This time, he won. Somehow. The Giants regained the lead they lost – a fourth-down completion and three penalties, including pass interference, set up Dart’s 1-yard TD run – then missed the PAT.

Denver didn’t have a timeout when it began a drive at the 23-yard line with 33 seconds left. Nix’s 29-yard strike over the middle to Marvin Mims, Jr. and a 22-yard sideline completion to Courtland Sutton – on a play Payton installed Saturday – set up Will Lutz’s 39-yard winning field goal.

The takeaway impressions of the final sequence for the Hall of Famers?

“They’ve got 33 seconds and no timeouts,” said Dungy, a defensive coordinator before becoming a head coach. “Don’t you just sit back, make them throw it in front of you and tackle them inbounds? The first ball’s a 29-yard gain. It’s just baffling to me. Baffling.”

Lofton, who retired after the 1993 season as the first NFL player to post 14,000 receiving yards, saw something special in Sutton’s final catch. Nix threw the back-shoulder pass to the perfect spot, high enough that only the receiver could make a play on the football at the 21-yard line.

“He played basketball at SMU,” Lofton said of Sutton. “He has incredible jump-ball skills. He’s used to going up and getting it. And he had the presence of mind to get his feet down.

“This is a crazy league.”

Payton had a distinct takeaway from the drama, too. With the Dallas Cowboys and their high-powered offense coming to town, he has a warning rooted in history. He said that teams experiencing the euphoria of a huge comeback win typically fall flat in their encore act.

“Look it up,” Payton said. “Analytically, it’s like 2-17. The following week – when you steal a win – is a challenging week. So, we’ve got to be prepared to bury this and get ready. The reason I know that is it happened to us.”

In other words, the Broncos are in comeback mode in more ways than one.

Contact Jarrett Bell at jbell@usatoday.com or follow on  X: @JarrettBell

LOS ANGELES — There was a point, midway through the first after the Golden State Warriors had switched to zone, that Los Angeles Lakers coach JJ Redick realized he missed LeBron James.

Los Angeles was struggling to sink shots. The 2025-26 season was merely a few minutes old, but Redick caught himself imagining life with his other star player back and fully healthy.

It would be great to have LeBron just to throw it to him in the high post.

It was, however, just a thought, and the Lakers would have to try finding other ways to keep pace with Golden State, their top rival since James joined the team in 2018.

But Tuesday night’s 119-109 loss against the Warriors showed just how challenging life may be for Redick and the Lakers as new faces try to assimilate on the fly while James nurses his sciatica issue that will sideline him at least for another week – if not longer.

‘It’s hard to forget about LeBron,’ Redick told reporters after the game. ‘The reality is, when you’re focused on the group that you have, you’ve got to make that group work. Sometimes you can just be like ‘Oh my God, we’re going to get LeBron back at some point.’ That’s awesome, but you have to be focused.’

A slimmed-down Luka Dončić showed that the offseason work on his body paid off. He dropped 43 points, 12 rebounds and 9 assists in a near-triple-double and was relentless in attacking the rim, sinking 13-of-14 attempts inside the paint. His defensive effort was improved, and he controlled his emotions with the officials.

But if there are three reasons to blame for this loss, it’s poor perimeter shooting, turnovers and third quarter issues (the Warriors opened the second half on an 18-4 run) that date back to last season.

Much of this, the Lakers stress, can be traced to the team’s relative lack of time assimilating during training camp because of injuries.

‘This is probably the second game together that we’ve actually played, everybody,’ forward Rui Hachimura said. ‘We’re still trying to figure out rhythm.’

The key for the Lakers to weather this initial spurt without James may be new center Deandre Ayton. He made most of the opportunities that came his way Tuesday night, making 5-of-7 shots, but he finished with only 10 points.

Part of it was timing, part of it was familiarity, but Ayton and ball-handlers Dončić and Austin Reaves often mistimed passes on pick-and-rolls, leading to turnovers, of which the Lakers had 20 overall.

‘I have to do a better job,’ Dončić said of pick-and-rolls with Ayton. ‘Talking to him – what I want, what he wants. Today was on me. I didn’t give him enough touches. I’ve got to help him.’

Los Angeles hit just a quarter (8-of-32) of its 3-point shots, ceding a 27-point advantage to Golden State in threes. In fact, the Lakers shot a blistering 75.6% on two-point shots.

The Lakers also posted runs late in the second and fourth quarters, the latter shrinking the Golden State lead to just six points with four minutes to play.

These are all signs that point toward Los Angeles possibly figuring things out.

‘I think it was mostly self-inflicted,’ Redick said. ‘I think if you look at this game, a microcosm of this game was we did enough good things to put ourselves in a position to win, for most of the game. And when we didn’t do those things, they were self-inflicted.

‘That’s not being organized early in the offense, that’s having the wrong guy bring it up … not sprinting back … those are self-inflicted things. That’s not anything Golden State did to us.’

James will solve some of these issues.

Though he’ll turn 41 in late December, he remains one of the elite players in the game, and one who can attack the paint and feed his teammates. He can be a primary ball-handler and the gravity he draws from opponents will open up spacing for his teammates. His 8.2 assists per game last season ranked sixth in the NBA.

Once he’s back, however, Lakers role players will need to hit their shots.

‘When you’re missing a guy like Bron, you’re not going to fill that with one person,’ Reaves said. ‘You have to do it as a collective group.’