LAS VEGAS – They will gather this week at the Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas Hotel playing cards, throwing dice, talking shop and trying to con their buddies.
It’s the annual Major League Baseball General Manager Meetings in Las Vegas where they will stage the ultimate game.
They will have you believing their ownership has no money, only to fork over $400 million for free agent outfielder Kyle Tucker or sign starters Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease.
They’ll convince you that Munetaka Murakami is nothing more than an overhyped strikeout machine out of Japan, but quietly slip in as one of the top bidders for the power-hitting infielder. They’ll publicly deny that Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and others stars are on the trade market, only to tell 29 other GMs to make their best offer, but to keep it quiet.
They’ll bemoan trying to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers, only to boldly tell their ownership that one shrewd move will make them the team to finally topple the two-time defending World Series champions.
“Everyone lies at these things,’ one veteran GM said. “That’s what we do. You never know what to believe. Everyone says they don’t have money when they do. The truth comes out in spring training and you find out who lied the least.’
MLB has privately told owners that teams lost $1.8 billion last year, led by the New York Mets with about $350 million in losses but, of course, that’s paper money. It doesn’t reveal the financial growth in franchise value, record revenues, or that their owner is worth $21 billion.
Whether the losses will have any effect, or simply be shrugged off, it will be a constant theme heard from the dealers to the slots to the sports bookies.
Here are the top 10 questions heading into the GM Meetings, and by the time things conclude Thursday, maybe then, will we at least have some hints to answers.
1. Will teams spend like usual or stash away money for a lockout fund?
No one knows for sure, but there wasn’t a single GM interviewed by USA TODAY Sports who was told by their ownership that they will spend less because of a potential lockout.
“We had the same thing going into the 2021 season and it didn’t stop teams from spending,’ one NL GM said. “I don’t see it having any effect, Now, a year from now, may be a completely different story. But not now. I haven’t heard that from any team.’
2. Which teams are expected to be the most aggressive in free agency?
– Los Angeles Dodgers: Just freed up $87 million, with Clayton Kershaw, Michael Conforto, Chris Taylor and Kirby Yates off the books. They’ll still be aggressive as anyone and will come away at the least with a high-priced closer.
– New York Mets: They embarrassed themselves by having the biggest payroll and failed to make the playoffs. And owner Steve Cohen hates to be embarrassed. They’ll come up with one, if not two front-line starters
– Baltimore Orioles: They can’t afford to miss the postseason again or GM Mike Elias’ job is on the line. They have to bring in a front-line starter
– New York Yankees: They must spend just to keep up with the rest of the powerful AL East and will either bring back Cody Bellinger or sign Kyle Tucker.
– Atlanta: President Terry McGuirk recently told shareholders they plan to be a top-five payroll team, which means adding about $50 million to their player budget.
3. What team could be the hot stove’s biggest sleeper?
The Chicago Cubs know that finishing second to the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central every year is inexcusable, and with Tucker expected to depart for greater riches, they’ll have plenty of money to burn. They want another corner outfielder, and will be shopping in the expensive aisle for starting pitching, with fellow GMs predicting they could land Framber Valdez and/or Dylan Cease.
4. Where will Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette and Alex Bregman land?
Tucker, a native of Tampa, will sign with the Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays or Los Dodgers, GMs predict. The San Francisco Giants are a darkhorse, but considering they still owe Rafael Devers $250 million, are in the second year of a seven-year, $182 million contract with Willy Adames and the second of a six-year, $151 million extension with Matt Chapman, there’s only so many nine-figure contracts the Giants can seemingly afford. They are paying $137 million alone to their top six players next year: Devers, Chapman, Adames, Robbie Ray, Logan Webb and Jung Hoo Lee. And don’t forget they are paying a record $10.5 million in salaries for a manager in 2026 – $4 million to fired Bob Melvin, $3.5 million to new manager Tony Vitello and $3 million to Tennessee for Vitello’s buyout.
Don’t be surprised if the Blue Jays are the perfect fit.
Bichette, who was expected to depart Toronto a year ago and whose name surfaced a year ago in trade talks now is expected to stay put to complete their goodwill tour.
Bregman won’t get $40 million a year from the Red Sox after walking away from $80 million over two years, but the Red Sox still make the most sense, particularly with the Tigers proving they can win without him and the Cubs finding a third baseman with rookie Matt Shaw.
5. Does Pete Alonso finally find a permanent home with the Mets?
Nope. David Stearns, Mets president of baseball operations, was ready to let Alonso walk last year. Alonso had a monster year but they still missed the playoffs, making it easier to walk away now. They are preaching defense or in the words of Stearns, “run prevention,’ and are expected to let him depart unless he signs a deal they can’t turn down. GMs are predicting the perfect landing spot for Alonso must may be the Red Sox.
6. Will Tarik Skubal or Paul Skenes get traded?
No. And no.
The Pirates won’t even listen to trade proposals for Skenes, so don’t bother calling.
The Tigers will at least listen on Skubal, but would have to be completely overwhelmed. Considering that teams know that he won’t sign an extension and plans to hit free agency in a year commanding the biggest deal or a pitcher in history, no one will dare up give up more than two top-10 prospects. The Tigers are expected to hang onto him until at least the July 2026 trade deadline.
7. Will the Phillies keep DH Kyle Schwarber?
He’s the heartbeat of their team and means everything to their clubhouse let alone his impact on the field with 187 homers the past four years. Still, tough decisions loom. The Phillies lost about $85 million last year, even after drawing 3.35 million fans, thanks to a $56 million luxury tax hit. They’ll make some changes this winter, but desperately need Schwarber.
8. Is Munetaka Murakami the real deal?
The jury is out, and no one has a strong sense of just what he’ll bring in the major leagues. The power is real, with five seasons of at least 30 homers and 246 homers in 892 games.
But so is the strikeout rate, which was at an alarming 29% last year against in Japan.
Most troubling, his contact rate was just 63% against pitches 93-mph or faster since 2022, according to FanGraphs. The average fastball in MLB last season was 94.5-mph. Scouts also believe he’s more ideal as a third baseman than a first baseman.
If teams don’t want to take the gamble on Murakami, they’ll turn to Kazuma Okamoto, a 29-year-old corner infielder. He doesn’t have the power of Murakami, but he’s a better contact hitter with scouts believing he’ll have an easier transition to big-league pitching.
9. Who’s on the MLB trade block?
– Minnesota Twins starters Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez: The Twins have two of the greatest trade chips and could completely rebuild their organization by trading away the pitchers. Lopez still is under control for two more years at $21.5 million a season while Ryan still has two years of club control and is salary-arbitration eligible after earning $3 million last year.
– Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene: Despite their recent public denials, they still plan to listen to offers for Greene. Yet, unless they’re completely overwhelmed and receive a return that will help them not only now but in the future, they’ll keep him. He’s owed only $39 million over the next three years with a $21 million club option in 2029. The Reds aren’t going to find a better pitcher at a bigger discount rate.
– Arizona Diamondbacks All-Star second baseman Ketel Marte: The Diamondbacks will ask for a lot in return, but they are definitely motivated in moving him with $71 million remaining through 2030. If they don’t move him by mid-April, Marte will have 10-and-5 rights and a full no-trade provision.
– Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara: The Marlins never got the offer they wanted to move their former Cy Young winner, but this winter, are set to accept the best offer they receive, believing now is the time. He earns $17.3 million in 2026 with a $21 million club option in 2027.
– San Diego Padres All-Star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.: They certainly don’t want to trade him, and still may not listen now, but with all of their bloated and back-loaded contracts, someone is going to eventually have to depart. And no one making big money has more trade value than Tatis, whose 14-year, $340 million contract suddenly looks rather reasonable.
– St. Louis Cardinals starter Sonny Gray: Gray is one of the finest starters on the trade block, but he’s also earning $35 million this year and has a full no-trade clause. He has a $30 million club option in 2027. The Cardinals will have to eat some of the contract if they want to move him.
– Houston Astros first baseman Christian Walker: Walker’s name came up in trade talks with the Minnesota Twins when they landed Carlos Correa, and they’ll gladly listen to all offers for him this winter trying to shed the remaining two years and $40 million in his contract.
– Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado: He rejected deals to the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels a year ago. This time around, he may not say no to anybody and will be willing to waive his no-trade clause to get out of town. The Cardinals will have to pay down some of the remaining $31 million left on his contract through 2027.
– Milwaukee Brewers starter Freddy Peralta: Despite the rumors and speculation, the Brewers are planning to keep him, knowing that at $8 million he’s an absolute steal making 33 starts and striking out 200 batters, and they need him if they’re going to run it back again.
– Washington Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore: The Nationals have a whole new front office, new coaching staff and new ideas. They are expected to use Gore, who has two more years of club control, as the trade bait to kick-start their new era.
– Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan: They nearly traded him to the Dodgers at the trade deadline and Los Angeles will come calling again. The price-tag will be high, but the Dodgers certainly have the prospect capital.
– Boston Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran: The Red Sox believe that they need an upgrade over Duran, and that he needs a fresh start. It would a huge surprise if he’s in Fort Myers, Fla., come spring training.
– Miami Marlins starter Edward Cabrera: He still has three more years of control, and is coming off his best season, but he has never had more trade value than now after never pitching 100 innings before last season.
– Pittsburgh Pirates starter Mitch Keller: You can’t have Paul Skenes, but Mitch Keller, who was in trade talks last summer with the Chicago Cubs, is more than available. He still has three more years left on his deal that pays him $15.9 million in 2026, $18.4 million in 2027 and $20.4 million in 2028. And the Pirates love nothing more than saving money.
– Athletics starter Luis Severino: Severino, who signed a three-year, $67 million contract last winter with the Athletics, has made it clear that he doesn’t like pitching in Sacramento. The A’s have made it clear they don’t like him constantly complaining about it. Both sides are willing to move on.
– Yankees prospect Spencer Jones: After floating his name in trade talks for the past year, the Yankees could finally move one of their top prospects.
10. Will trades go down at the GM Meetings?
Well, there likely won’t be a single trade consummated, but the best trade was engineered three months ago by the Toronto Blue Jays.
They took the gamble of trading for pitching prospect Khal Stephen for Shane Bieber, who was still recovering from Tommy John surgery. Bieber produced just as they hoped, leading them to Game 7 of the World Series by yielding a 3.57 ERA in seven regular-season starts and a 3.87 ERA in five playoff appearances. Then, Bieber decided to exercise his opt-in and stay next season for $16 million. Considering he had a $4 million buyout, he’s actually staying for $12 million, the price of an 8th-inning reliever these days.
The Blue Jays, a team where free agents once used in leverage, but avoid, suddenly has become the ultimate destination spot for free agents.
Follow Nightengale on X: @Bnightengale
This post appeared first on USA TODAY
