Has the NFL’s hot seat season already reached its peak temperature?

As the league approaches Week 18 and the dreaded ‘Black Monday’ for staffs everywhere, three teams – the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears – already have created vacancies by firing their coaches. History suggests more action is bound to follow. But unless several teams match the surprising upheaval of last year, in which eight teams made changes, this cycle could end up looking something closer to the fallout of two years ago, when just two coaches (Kliff Kingsbury and Lovie Smith) were dismissed after three in-season firings (Matt Rhule, Frank Reich and Nathaniel Hackett).

Still, there’s sure to be plenty of intrigue in the next week and beyond. Here’s our look at the NFL coaches with the hottest seats ahead of this weekend’s finales:

1. Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars

When the Jaguars suffered their worst loss in franchise history with a 52-6 rout at the hands of the Detroit Lions, many expected a coaching change would be made ahead of the bye week. Then … nothing happened. Still, while Jacksonville squeezed two more victories out of its matchups with the Tennessee Titans since then, there’s not much to suggest that there is – or should be – a strong push to keep Pederson.

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Despite later voicing his support for Pederson amid a 1-4 start, owner Shad Khan made clear before the season he believed this was ‘the best team assembled’ by the organization in its history. He’s right to be bullish about at least a few integral parts of the Jaguars’ setup, with the presence of Trevor Lawrence, a budding star receiver in Brian Thomas Jr. and the league’s weakest division all making this an extremely attractive potential vacancy. While plenty of what has gone wrong has been outside of Pederson’s control – including Lawrence making just 10 starts before being knocked out for the season – it seems clear a new voice is needed. Khan hasn’t signaled his intent, but this seems like the most clear-cut decision to be made after Week 18.

The more interesting call might be on the fate of general manager Trent Baalke, the architect of a roster rife with high-investment flops. Opting to clean house would surely indicate a more widespread personnel shake-up, but it also could color the coaching search given how Baalke’s presence loomed over the search three years ago, according to multiple reports.

2. Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders

No one can lob tanking accusations at the Silver and Black, as the Raiders won their last two games to push them out of prime position to select a top quarterback in the upcoming NFL draft. Beyond that and the record-setting rookie campaign of tight end Brock Bowers, however, there hasn’t been much to like about what Las Vegas has produced, even with a roster especially starved for talent after the Davante Adams trade in October. At the NFL league meeting in December, owner Mark Davis said he was ‘very disappointed’ in the results from Pierce and declined to commit to him for 2025, according to The Athletic.

Might this be one of the first opportunities for Tom Brady to shape the organization after the seven-time Super Bowl winner and FOX broadcaster became a minority owner this fall? Davis has said he wants Brady to have a ‘huge voice’ in football matters, particularly when it comes to choosing its next signal-caller. While it’s not clear how Brady might view the current regime, Davis’ embrace of the legend would seem to indicate a desire to employ a new approach.

3. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

Earlier this season, McCarthy might have pushed Pederson for the top spot on the list. With clear expectations to improve on the past three 12-win campaigns that produced just one playoff win, the Cowboys crashed out with a 3-7 start that included repeated embarrassments at home. But despite losing Dak Prescott to a season-ending hamstring injury and several other key starters to significant ailments, Dallas rallied to notch four wins in its following five games before last Sunday’s rout by the Philadelphia Eagles.

From the time he opted to bring the coach back following last season’s wild-card rout by the Green Bay Packers all the way up to this week, Jerry Jones has been largely laudatory of McCarthy. It’s worth noting, however, that Jones also spoke highly of Jason Garrett right up until he decided to part ways with his longtime coach and former quarterback after the 2019 season. Still, McCarthy has received the backing of Prescott and star pass rusher Micah Parsons, which could bolster his case.

Jones said in his weekly radio interview Tuesday he was not under facing any ‘unusual time frame’ to make a call after stringing out his last few coaching decisions, including retaining McCarthy for 2024 and firing Garrett five years ago after an extended wait. But McCarthy is free to pursue opportunities as he pleases with his contract set to expire, and he could be an alluring candidate for other franchises looking for a proven entity.

4. Brian Daboll, New York Giants

Co-owner John Mara went out on a bit of a ledge in late October when he said he didn’t ‘anticipate’ making any leadership changes this offseason. The subsequent 10-game losing streak might have complicated matters. While Mara might not be swayed by the banners flying over MetLife Stadium demanding a full organizational teardown, it could be hard to stick with the status quo of what had been the league’s lowest-scoring offense prior to the 45-point outburst in Sunday’s win over the Indianapolis Colts.

That outcome should at least put to rest any question about the team’s resiliency in a season that featured a late-season pivot behind center that led to Daniel Jones’ departure. Daboll seemed to drive home a message after the team’s skid ended, saying, ‘If you get good quarterback play, you have an opportunity in every game.’ As has long been the case, Mara must determine whether he trusts the existing setup to identify and develop the new signal-caller who could determine the trajectory of the franchise for years to come. His earlier statement would seem to indicate he has the confidence to stay the course, but recall what he said three years ago in explaining the decision to fire Joe Judge after just two seasons: ‘We just got to a point where I thought we had dug ourselves a hole so deep that I didn’t see a clear path to getting out of it unless we completely blew it up and started all over again with a new general manager and a new head coach.’

5. Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots

If there’s one potential surprise to monitor in what otherwise is shaping up to be a relatively tame ride on the coaching carousel, it’s in Foxborough. Robert Kraft has hardly been the picture of an impatient owner, and Bill Belichick left the roster with few building blocks as he was pushed out the door. But a 3-13 season has produced plenty of angst, including ‘fire Mayo’ chants during a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers last Saturday. Still, given how resolute Kraft was in appointing Mayo as Belichick’s successor, an about-face after one trying season would be a true stunner. The more reasonable course of action might be leveraging what’s projected to be a league-high $131 million in cap space, according to OverTheCap.com, and potentially the No. 1 pick in the draft to supercharge a widespread roster reboot.

This is a reminder. Call it a public service announcement for teams reportedly interested in Jon Gruden. This is a reminder of what Gruden said. A reminder of how ugly it was.

Apparently, people need this reminder. Teams need it. Maybe many of you might, too. So here’s the reminder. Please bookmark it because in these coming months you will likely hear Gruden’s name a lot, and this reminder needs to be front and center of all these conversations.

It was reported in 2021 by the Wall Street Journal that Gruden used a racist trope in an email about then union head DeMaurice Smith. This is what Gruden wrote about Smith, who is Black: ‘Dumboriss Smith has lips the size of michellin tires.’

Gruden’s emails also contained anti-gay and misogynistic messages. Gruden apologized but it wasn’t enough. The totality of the emails was so bad that he would resign from the Raiders a short time later.

What Gruden said about Smith relied on a racist trope that goes back centuries, and just as important as the racist email itself, Gruden said it believing no one would ever see his words. This was unfiltered Gruden. This was ugly, nasty work.

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‘All I can say is that I’m not a racist,’ Gruden said at the time. ‘I can’t tell you how sick I am. I apologize again to De Smith, but I feel good about who I am and what I’ve done my entire life. I apologize for the insensitive remarks. I had no racial intentions with those remarks at all. But… yes, they can… I’m not like that at all. I apologize but I don’t want to keep addressing it.’

I’m not racist but I used a really racist phrase.

Why do NFL teams need this reminder? Because Gruden is drawing interest from teams to become a head coach again. I believe this interest is serious. I believe it is extensive. I believe it is real.

The NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported on Tuesday that NFL teams are doing extensive research on Gruden.

‘Keep an eye on Jon Gruden,’ Pelissero said to Peter Schrager. ‘We have not seen Gruden on a full-time basis in the NFL since back in 2021, when he resigned after offensive emails were leaked to the media that he had sent while working as an analyst at ESPN. However, he has remained engaged. We saw him on the sidelines with the Bucs owners earlier this fall. We saw him with the Saints back in training camp last year. My understanding is, if he had wanted the Saints’ offensive coordinator job last year, he could have had it. He ultimately decided he was not going to do that.

‘What I can tell you though, Peter, it’s not to say for sure Jon Gruden will be back,’ Pelissero said. ‘But there are multiple teams who are doing extensive homework on Jon Gruden, the situation, him as a coach, him as a person. I would not be surprised at all if, in the coming weeks, you see Jon Gruden’s name popping up interviewing for a head coaching job.’

Teams will rationalize their interest by saying time has passed. Or they’ll speak to people of color who will vouch for Gruden. Or the old standby: Gruden has grown as a person. They won’t care about the massive damage Gruden caused. They will only care that he’s a good coach. They’ll say he should be forgiven.

Forgive? I’ll leave that to popes and saints (and not the football ones from New Orleans). Teams can do whatever the hell they want but that doesn’t mean people who believe in decency should put what Gruden did behind us.

Yes, it’s true, there are bad people in the NFL (and even more really good people). But Gruden was a leader. He was a head coach. There’s just a different level of accountability and responsibility for people in his position.

There are simply lines that shouldn’t be crossed. Gruden did. Thinking no one was looking. There’s no coming back from that.

So, yes, this is a reminder. A lot of us haven’t forgotten. We never will.

Nor should we.

Is Eli Manning a Hall of Famer?

Maybe. Maybe not. Yet despite earning zero All-Pro selections to go with the two upset Super Bowl triumphs against the so-called Evil Empire led by Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, the former New York Giants quarterback is a finalist in his first year of eligibility.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame unveiled the list of 15 modern-era finalists over the weekend, with Manning’s presence to likely fuel the most intense debate facing the 49 selectors who will determine the Class of 2025 in January.

Full-disclosure: As a member of the selection committee, this is not an effort to sway fellow voters. Looking forward to engaging in the passionate discussion.

But oh, brother.

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Another question: Is Darren Woodson is Hall of Famer? The former safety won three Super Bowls during the 1990s with the Dallas Cowboys and earned four first-team All-Pro selections. He’s the franchise’s all-time leading tackler. And Woodson is in his 17th year of eligibility, which puts him so close to entering the deep seniors pool, which happens when former players don’t get in after 20 years as a modern-era candidate.

See, this can be so tricky. Rodney Harrison won two Super Bowls with the New England Patriots, is one of two players in NFL history with 30 interceptions and 30 sacks. He was a finalist the past three years. But he didn’t make the final 15 this time around.

Earl Thomas won a Super Bowl, appeared in another with the Seattle Seahawks and, like Luke Kuechly, was a first-team All-Decade selection who earned seven Pro Bowl bids and seven All-Pro selections. Yet Thomas didn’t advance as a finalist. Kuechly did. Hmmm. Kuechly’s advance should set the table one day for fellow All-Decade linebacker Bobby Wagner, who is still playing. We’ll see.

Also missing the cut from the list of 25 semifinalists: Richmond Webb, an All-Decade left tackle who protected Dan Marino’s blind side; James Harrison, two-time Super Bowl champ and former NFL Defensive Player of the Year; Hines Ward, again, for the ninth year in a row, as the latest version of a wide receiver logjam is a lot tougher than beating press coverage.

Of course, highlighting omissions doesn’t diminish the worthiness of the finalists. Yet it underscores how competitive the process is for settling on many of the Hall of Fame slots.

The ultimate prize, as the legendary Deacon Jones once explained, is that getting enshrined in Canton is making the team that you can never get cut from. Yet surviving the gauntlet to get bronze bust can be so challenging for some undeniably worthy candidates.

The new slate again includes former wideouts Torry Holt and Reggie Wayne, back as six-time finalists, while ex-defensive end Jared Allen returns as a five-time finalist with 136 career sacks. Willie Anderson, the former right tackle, is a fourth-time finalist. Jahri Evans and Eric Allen are second-time finalists, but here’s a twist: Evans, a well-credentialed former guard, is in his third year of eligibility. Meanwhile, Eric Allen, a former cornerback whose 54 interceptions ranks 21st all-time, is in his 19th year of eligibility. The clock is ticking.

Antonio Gates is back, too, for his second time as a finalist. With his 116 career receiving touchdowns the most of any tight end in history, it’s fair to wonder why the ex-Charger wasn’t a first-ballot pick last year. I’d suspect the PED suspension (four games, 2015) hurt Gates, although a similar blemish didn’t stop Julius Peppers from getting in on the first ballot. That can be baffling to understand.

Maybe it’s simply a numbers game. And timing. I mean, Michael Strahan didn’t get selected until his second year of eligibility, while Brian Urlacher was a first-ballot pick.  

One pattern keeps coming back: recency bias. Of the 15 finalists, five are first-ballot candidates: Manning, Kuechly, Terrell Suggs, Adam Vinatieri and Marshal Yanda. Not saying that any (or most) are not worthy, but what’s the rush?

Then again, if I’m a candidate, there’s a rush because the influx of new candidates next year and the year after will bring another round of recency bias.

The moral: If the Hall induction doesn’t happen fast for any given candidate, good luck. There are only so many slots (or so few) each year. Yeah, it’s supposed to be tough to get in. It’s not the Hall of the Very Good. But it can still be so subjective.

Great stats, Pro Bowl selections and All-Decade status surely boost the cases of any candidate. But when there are several other candidates with similar symbols of achievement, it can be a wash – or at least much tougher to separate the best from the greatest ever.

This is my 27th year as a selector. It has been a tremendous honor, taken so seriously. When I was invited by the Hall to join the committee, I thought it would be easy.

Not quite. And not just because of the campaigning inherit with the process.

Sure, it’s been easy to cast votes for some of the no-brainer picks. I’ll never forget the “discussion” on one candidate, when Ira Miller, the selector presenting the case, stood up and announced to the room: “Ladies and gentlemen, I present Joe Montana.”

Then Ira sat down. That was the discussion.

Other candidates with similarly short presentations: Bruce Smith. Jerry Rice. Dan Marino. Emmitt Smith. Deion Sanders. Ronnie Lott.

Yet most of the candidates are vetted with deep discussion – and sometimes intense debate – during our marathon selection meeting before the Super Bowl-week unveiling of the new class. As great as Lawrence Taylor was, for instance, his Hall of Fame call didn’t come without some serious back-and-forth.

Surely, some heated discussion is coming with Manning. He comes from football royalty and slayed the Patriots twice in the big game, but it’s a team game and individual honor. Never mind that Manning gamed the NFL draft system to shun the Chargers and land in the Big Apple. That’s not a factor for Hall consideration. That he was never one of the league’s best quarterbacks, though, is indeed a factor.

If Manning is a Hall of Famer, then what about Jim Plunkett?

Plunkett – ironically drafted No. 1 overall in 1971, one slot ahead of Eli’s father, Archie – won two Super Bowls, too, with the Raiders.

But recency bias or not, Plunkett has never been discussed in the room as a finalist. Chances are, though, that he will be mentioned in context with the Manning case.

Let the debate roll on.

In the Hawaiian language, there is the phrase, “momoe aku i mua.” It means to move ahead with determination.

It could perfectly describe Dillon Gabriel, a quarterback that always dreamed big.

The son of a former Hawai’i football quarterback, the left-handed kid from Mililani on the island of Oahu wanted to play football at the highest level when he got older. He shined playing youth football, broke several Hawaii state high school football records and was the state’s player of the year. 

Yet he wasn’t a prized recruit. Just under 6-foot out of high school, Gabriel was ranked the No. 42 quarterback in the 2019 class by 247 Sports. He had to prove himself, but it wasn’t hard for him to move ahead with determination. 

Because he had someone that showed him how he could do it: Marcus Mariota. 

Similarities between Dillon Gabriel and Marcus Mariota

It’s easy to notice the similarities between Gabriel and Mariota: both are quarterbacks from Hawaii wearing No. 8. However, there’s a much deeper connection between the two. In 2014, Mariota became the first Hawaiian-born athlete to win the Heisman Trophy. At that time, Gabriel was just a teenager, hoping to achieve the same level of success.

He’s looked up to Mariota since, and after proving to be one of the best passers in the country at Central Florida and Oklahoma, Gabriel is having another sensational season as the quarterback at Oregon, taking the Ducks to the College Football Playoff for the first time since his idol did during that Heisman season.

And the stars couldn’t be more aligned. Mariota’s first playoff contest? The Rose Bowl. For Gabriel? The Rose Bowl against Ohio State on New Year’s Day.

“Now that I’m here, it’s crazy, and I’m still shocked,” Gabriel said. “There’s flashes of memories watching (Mariota) do what he did, and now being able to go do it for myself.”

Gabriel and plenty of keiki, or children, on the islands were in awe watching Mariota achieved stardom at Oregon, all while he proudly showcased his roots. Mariota wore No. 8 as homage to the eight major islands of Hawaii, and he was one of the first football players to don the “808” facemask, a nod to the state’s area code.

It was the talent mixed with honoring culture that made Gabriel’s mother, Dori, realize Mariota was paving the way for her son. 

“It was exciting for him to see someone that looked like him,” said Dori Gabriel.

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Dillon Gabriel’s mom was catalyst for Marcus Mariota relationship

Coincidentally, it was Dori Gabriel that actually started the connection between her son and his idol. 

There’s a joke in the Hawaiian community that you either know someone or you know somebody that does. Prime example: when Gabriel was going through his recruiting process, a friend of Dori Gabriel linked her up with Alana Deppe-Mariota, Marcus’ mom.

Since then, the two mothers have texted each other as Gabriel has gone on his college journey. Whether it was injuries, the highs, the lows, Dori Gabriel found comfort in communicating with Deppe-Mariota. It was a challenge, and Deppe-Mariota helped her navigate the journey and eventually aided her with Gabriel’s transition to Oregon.

Eventually Gabriel and Mariota connected, and when Gabriel arrived at Oregon, the No. 8 jersey made famous in Eugene was available. Gabriel texted the Washington Commanders quarterback if he could have his blessing to wear it, and without hesitation, Mariota agreed. 

It takes a special talent for players to receive the blessing to wear the jersey number of a team’s prior legend, but to be able to wear the number of his idol meant something extra to Gabriel. It gave him an extra dose of momoe aku i mua.

“I feel like that’s the beauty of this story of him,” Dori Gabriel said. “But when (Mariota) said ‘Yes, I would be proud and honored for you to share the number.’ I think it unlocked his childhood hero saying, ‘You know what, go get it, go do it.’”

So far, Gabriel has got it. He’s thrown for 3,558 yards with 28 passing touchdowns and run for seven more scores. He finished third in the Heisman voting while leading the only undefeated team in the Bowl Subdivision. 

“He’s the best quarterback in the entire nation,” said receiver Tez Johnson. “I don’t know if anybody else agrees, but this team knows, he’s the best quarterback that’s in this playoff, period. That’s a Heisman quarterback right there.”

A role model through a historic season

Gabriel continues to have his role model helping him. Throughout the season, Mariota has been reaching out to Gabriel, congratulating him on all of his success and offering any wisdom. Dori Gabriel believes Mariota continues to remain in contact because “he wants so much for Dillon” to experience all of the things he did in college.

Oregon has experience new history this season. The Ducks won the Big Ten title in their first season in the league. They reached No. 1 for the first time in 12 seasons on Oct. 20 and have held that position since.

With his sixth and final season of college football winding down, Gabriel still has plenty to achieve. Yes he’s following the footsteps of his mentor, but he could do something Mariota didn’t and deliver Oregon its first national championship with three more wins. 

Gabriel said he’s been preparing his whole life for this moment. He’s been dreaming of it, and that’s all thanks to someone that set the standard for Hawaii athletes.

“Just having that relationship is very special,” Gabriel said of Mariota. “A lot of people, they don’t have to do any of this, but he’s understanding of the role that he plays and the leader he was, the trailblazer he was and is for growing athletes. I appreciate that and don’t take it lightly because he doesn’t have to do it but he does it out of the kindness of his heart because he knows I’m just a guy chasing my dream as well.”

During his Heisman acceptance speech, Mariota said he hoped this would just be the beginning for the Polynesian community and the young Poly athletes “should take this as motivation, and dream big and strive for greatness.”

Gabriel did exactly that, and 10 years later, he has arrived on the big stage, determined to shine at “The Granddaddy of Them All” just like his hero did.

“He never limited himself, and that came from seeing someone like Marcus achieve high heights,” Dori Gabriel said. “He knew it was possible. Marcus made it possible for him to dream big.”

Dillon Gabriel giving back to Hawaii

And while he tries to be the best player on the field, Gabriel gives back children back in his home state, just like Mariota did for him. 

“Marcus was an inspiration to him, now he serves as an inspiration to others,” Dori Gabriel said. 

Gabriel has helped Mililani High School’s athletic program with new training equipment, gear and helped raise money. He’s been such a big help to the program and the community, May 3 in the town of Mililani is now known as “Dillon Gabriel Day.”

“I’ve had great role models myself on how to do it, and I just want to continue that,” Gabriel said. “I know there’s kids behind me that want to do the same and have big dreams and goals and aspirations for their careers and what they want to do.”

Milliani has rallied around their homegrown star. While Gabriel’s family will make the trip across the Pacific Ocean to be in Pasadena for the matchup against Ohio State, the town has let it be known how excited they are for Gabriel. Banners and signs of Gabriel can be found throughout.

It puts a smile on his mom’s face when she sees it, and Gabriel couldn’t hide his smile when thinking about the support from more than 2,500 miles away. Any athlete can say they are proud of their background, but it’s just different for those island kids.

“I love being from Hawaii,” Gabriel said. “I love being born and raised, and the experience you have as a young kid is special. I think when you grow up, you start to realize that upbringing is part of what makes you different in a great way, and I just want to represent everyone to the best of my ability.”

Let’s do this again.

Ohio State’s eye-opening 42-17 win against Tennessee in the opening round of the College Football Playoff sends the Buckeyes to the Rose Bowl and a rematch with Big Ten champion Oregon, the only unbeaten team in the Bowl Subdivision.

Back in October, the Ducks scored a 32-31 win against Ohio State thanks to a brilliant game from quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who threw for 341 yards and had three combined touchdowns.

The two teams took dissimilar roads to the Rose Bowl. Oregon has continued to smother teams with a seemingly unstoppable offense while holding all but two opponents during the regular season to under 370 yards. Ohio State faceplanted in the season finale against Michigan but rebounded against the Volunteers to resemble the team many expected to win the national championship during the preseason.

Because of that performance at home against one of the top teams in the SEC, this matchup between the Ducks and Buckeyes feels like an early championship game – making the winner the clear favorite to win the whole thing.

Here are the keys to this highly anticipated rematch:

What has changed for Ohio State?

Maybe the loss to the Wolverines will be what propels the Buckeyes to the national championship. Clearly, Ohio State was looser and more at ease against Tennessee despite the mammoth stakes.

One major development was the recharged play of quarterback Will Howard, who played poorly against Michigan but had his best game of the year against the Volunteers. Howard had one interception in the second half that momentarily gave Tennessee life but finished 24 of 29 for 311 yards and two scores. He was also more involved in the running game, gaining a season-high 37 yards after running for a combined 16 yards in his previous four games.

One major factor behind Saturday’s win that must carry over against Oregon was the Buckeyes’ ability to get the ball to receivers Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. The pair combined for 11 catches for 184 yards and two scores, both to Smith.

That loosened things up for backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson, who had four rushing touchdowns.

But can Oregon be stopped?

No one has done it yet, even Ohio State. Oregon gained 496 yards against the Buckeyes, who have held every other opponent under 275 yards. The Ducks’ 7.6 yards per play were the most Ohio State has given up to a Big Ten team other than Michigan since beating Maryland in 2018.

There is no reason to think Oregon’s offense will stop now. After a sloppy showing against Wisconsin last month, the Ducks have bounced back with 458 yards on 7.3 yards per play in the rivalry against Washington and 466 yards in the Big Ten championship game against Penn State.

Ohio State’s run defense will hold the key. Typically one of the best in the conference, the Buckeyes have been susceptible to the quarterback-run game against Michigan and Tennessee; about the only thing the Volunteers did well offensively was get Nico Iamaleava out of the pocket and in space.

Giving Oregon room to operate between the tackles will open up the breadth of the Ducks’ playbook and make things very, very difficult on Ohio State.

WHO WINS?: Expert predictions for Ohio State-Oregon in Rose Bowl

What about the Ohio State offensive line?

Hampered by injuries, this group struggled to find a rhythm during the regular season but looked very good against a talented Tennessee defensive front in the opening round.

The Ducks will present another big challenge. Oregon has multiple All-America linemen in Derrick Harmon and edge rusher Jordan Burch along with enough depth to throw waves of bodies at the Buckeyes’ injury-ravaged offensive line.

Ohio State can combat Oregon’s pressure by being unpredictable on early downs. The Buckeyes’ passing game is extremely productive on first and second downs — throwing a combined 23 touchdowns against four interceptions while completing 74.6 percent of attempts — and could negate the Ducks’ pass rush by blending this with Judkins, Henderson and the running game.

Three months later, Texas finally has that long-awaited win against a ranked opponent.

Beating Clemson 38-24 in the opening round of the College Football Playoff has the Longhorns in the Peach Bowl against Big 12 champion Arizona State. The Sun Devils are one of the great success stories in the Bowl Subdivision after winning just three games last season.

The final score is slightly misleading: Texas was firmly in control nearly throughout, ceding some ground in the second half as Cade Klubnik brought the Tigers within a touchdown but quickly answering with a long touchdown run to secure the win.

Clemson’s defense was unable to keep the Longhorns under wraps. Arizona State should have an even more difficult time.

But unlike the Tigers, Arizona State has the offensive firepower to go punch for punch with Texas and turn this into an up-and-down, high-scoring matchup.

Here are the keys to the Peach Bowl:

Can Arizona State stay hot?

The Sun Devils started to raise some eyebrows with a perfect run through non-conference play but lost some momentum with league losses to Texas Tech and Cincinnati. They haven’t lost since, rolling into the quarterfinals on a six-game winning streak that includes ranked wins against Kansas State, Brigham Young and Iowa State.

The Peach Bowl could help illustrate the value – or maybe the detriment – of advancing straight into the quarterfinals as one of the top four conference champions.

Will the layoff hurt Arizona State? Will playing in the opening round give Texas more momentum heading into New Year’s Day? Will watching from home force the Sun Devils to shake off some early rust and potentially fall behind in the first quarter or first half?

Would Quinn Ewers deliver in a shootout?

Arizona State ranks 31st in the FBS at 33.1 points per game, but that average has climbed since the start of November. The Sun Devils are averaging 37.2 points per game during this active winning streak, including a 45-point outburst to beat Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game.

Ewers averaged 8.4 yards per attempt against Clemson, his best single-game performance since averaging 12.3 yards per throw against Florida in early November. But he had another interception, giving him four in his last three games.

The Longhorns are at their best when the running game is rolling and taking pressure off Ewers’ shoulders, as in the win against the Tigers.

Arizona State will be in position to score the upset by removing the Texas running game from the equation. That’s easier said than done. The Sun Devils have held teams with a non-winning record to 3.6 yards per carry but allowed five opponents with a winning record to averaged 4.3 yards per carry with five touchdowns on 150 touches.

WHO WINS?: Expert predictions for Arizona State-Texas in Peach Bowl

Can the Texas defense clamp down?

Clemson was the first team to throw for more than 300 yards on Texas and just the third team to crack 200 yards. Klubnik threw for three touchdowns after the Longhorns allowed just four scores through the air during the regular season.

This defense remains one of the best in the FBS and a major reason why Texas could march all the way to the national championship.

Even including Clemson, the Longhorns have given up seven passing touchdowns against 20 interceptions while holding opposing quarterbacks to 5.4 yards per attempt. Against the run, Texas has allowed more than 150 yards only once and held seven opponents to under 100 yards.

Texas is also adept at forcing turnovers. The Longhorns are tied for first nationally with 29 takeaways and have forced multiple turnovers in all but three games.

LOS ANGELES — One of the most-anticipated College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups is the Rose Bowl featuring Oregon and Ohio State − even though it’s a game we’ve already seen before.

More than two months ago, the Ducks and Buckeyes played a thriller at Autzen Stadium, a back-and-forth affair that went down to the final play and Oregon prevailing 32-31. The two sides have been on a collision course since and they’ll meet once again on New Year’s Day with a spot in the semifinals on the line.

Of the four quarterfinal matchups, Oregon and Ohio State are the only ones to have faced each other, so does that give either side an advantage or disadvantage?

‘I don’t know that I necessarily look at it that way, but playing a team that you’re familiar with, there’s certainly some advantages, too,’ said Oregon head coach Dan Lanning. ‘But on the same note they’re familiar with us as well. So I think all that stuff kind of goes to the side.’

Is rematch good or bad for Ohio State, Oregon?

The question of whether the rematch is good or bad was a constant theme for both teams. Ohio State coach Ryan Day said there’s a great chance his team will see the same things they faced against the Ducks, and others things they’ll be seeing for the first time.

‘I think when you’re late in this season there’s a combination of both. There’s a lot of overage that you have throughout the season that you have ready for teams, you have ready for the first game that you played against somebody, that you don’t quite get to but you practiced all year,’ Day said. ‘There’s also going to be change-ups along the way on both sides of the ball. So just like anytime of the year, you’ve got to adapt once you see something new.’

Of course, both teams aren’t the same either. Day said one big change from Oregon is how quarterback Dillon Gabriel has gotten more comfortable in the offense, making the offense even more explosive than it was when it started the season. He also noted Oregon’s ability to ‘steal possessions’ on special teams with fakes. The Ducks didn’t say much about how different Ohio State is compared to the first matchup, but Lanning focused on ensuring his team’s mistakes from the last meeting don’t carry over.

‘There’s a lot of moments in those games that we could have been better,’ he said.

KEYS TO GAME: Breaking down the Ohio State-Oregon matchup

WHO WINS?: Expert predictions for Ohio State-Oregon in Rose Bowl

Ohio State, Oregon have evolved since early October

Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka believes it won’t be the same team he faces because making the playoff requires improving over the course and if ‘you’re not a different team by the time you face them again, then I think you’re shorting yourself.’

Still, some people in the matchup think the experience will help them, and offered some warnings to the other side. Oregon receiver Tez Johnson, who had seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting, said the Ohio State secondary is full of ‘all elite guys,’ but he pointed out one of the members: safety Caleb Downs.

‘He’s a really good corner, ranging corner, comes from the SEC. But we know his weaknesses. So we definitely going to be on high alert for that,’ Johnson said.

Ohio State ready to take its ‘shot’

Meanwhile there’s Ohio State freshman sensation Jeremiah Smith, who didn’t hold back on his warning. He had a team-high 100 yards and a touchdown on nine catches in the October meeting, and is coming off a big game in which he had 103 receiving yards and two touchdowns against Tennessee. The deep-threat said Oregon shouldn’t think about playing man defense on him.

‘I’m just laughing in my head. Why are y’all really playing man-on-man against us, or against me, I should say?’ Smith told ESPN. ‘And when we see man against any of our receivers, we’re going to take a shot down the field.

‘So I’m just letting everybody know right now that if you play man Wednesday, we’re taking a shot.’

Gabriel notes rematches will be a more common with the expanded playoff, and like the NFL, and there will always be good and bad points for it. Regardless, the college football world will see whether any team gains an advantage from seeing each other before, and it will happen in the sport’s best setting.

‘We’re excited for it,’ Gabriel said. ‘It’s at the Rose Bowl, so what better way to do it?’

The last College Football Playoff quarterfinal on the schedule could turn out to be the best one. Notre Dame and Georgia meet in New Orleans in the Sugar Bowl with the winner headed to the Orange Bowl.

The Fighting Irish, coming off their defeat of Indiana in the first round, have won 11 games in a row and appear to be peaking at the right time. The Bulldogs face some questions despite winning the SEC title against Texas with starting quarterback Carson Beck out for the season. Gunner Stockton played well in relief of Beck in that defeat of the Longhorns. But how he will fare against a defense as good as Notre Dame that has time to prepare for him? That remains to be seen.

With both teams appearing to have their strength on defense and lacking explosive passing games, this shapes up to be a defensive struggle. Who will prevail? Our experts give their picks.

Scooby Axson

The Irish will be missing their top pass rusher, and Georgia will be without its starting quarterback. Notre Dame will need to pound the rock early and often to open up the passing game, which the Bulldogs have been susceptible to at times. Gunner Stockton’s first career start is in the biggest spotlights, and a key turnover or special team play will let the Bulldogs escape and move on to the next round. Georgia 26, Notre Dame 24.

Jordan Mendoza

How much does the loss of Carson Beck impact Georgia? Notre Dame will be hunting Gunner Stockton all night against should be the best defense the Bulldogs have faced all season. Georgia is unable to stop the running game of the Fighting Irish and prevail in what will be a pro-Georgia crowd. Notre Dame 27, Georgia 23.

Paul Myerberg

The outlook is different if Georgia had Carson Beck under center. Life will become much more difficult with backup Gunner Stockton taking snaps against what may be the best defense in this field. Notre Dame will be able to run on Georgia and will need error-free play from Riley Leonard to score a minor upset. The Irish have what it takes to get this done. Notre Dame 24, Georgia 20.

Erick Smith

We’ve seen backup quarterbacks thrive in the College Football Playoff. The questions is whether Gunner Stockton is the latest. A solid performance in the second half against Texas in the SEC championship game brings optimism. Notre Dame needs this to be a breakthrough win in the postseason to establish its credentials. It’ll be a four-quarter fight that might come down to a kicker. Georgia 20, Notre Dame 17.

Eddie Timanus

One usually picks against Georgia in the College Football Playoff playoff at one’s own peril. Bearing that in mind, however, we like Notre Dame’s chances with its physical ability on both sides of the ball and the Bulldogs forced to rely on inexperienced quarterback Gunner Stockton to make critical plays. Notre Dame 27, Georgia 13.

Dan Wolken

With some time to prepare for Gunner Stockton, Notre Dame’s defense has the advantage against a quarterback who doesn’t have a lot of experience under the bright lights. Maybe Georgia is good enough to overcome it, and maybe Stockton is a star in waiting. But until they prove it on the field, it’s safer to consider this version of Georgia as a downgrade from what they were earlier in the year. Notre Dame 23, Georgia 21.

We’ve had rematches in the College Football Playoff and Bowl Championship Series before, so Ohio State and Oregon facing in the Rose Bowl after an earlier meeting in the regular season isn’t breaking new ground. But given the drama and high-level play from that matchup won by the Ducks, there is a lot of expectation that the sequel could be as good as the original, if not better.

The Buckeyes are off an impressive win against Tennessee that helped calm things down a bit after a loss to Michigan dropped them out of the Big Ten title game. The defeat opened the door for Penn State to play Oregon for the conference title, the Ducks prevailed, sending them into the playoff as the No. 1 seed.

The earlier game between these two came down to an Ohio State offensive pass interference penalty that preceded a final play where time expired before a potential game-winning field goal. Could there be the same kind of drama Wednesday? Our experts off their predictions.

Scooby Axson

The only solace Oregon has is that they have already beaten the Buckeyes earlier this year, but if the Ohio State team that showed up against Tennessee makes a repeat appearance in this contest then Oregon, no matter how explosive their offense can be, will be going home early. Will Howard is the X-factor in this game and might be the single reason why Ohio State wins or loses. In this case, Howard’s’ supporting cast gives him plenty of help. Ohio State 37, Oregon 32.

Jordan Mendoza

The scoreboard will be doing plenty of work when both of these teams meet again. Ohio State’s offense should keep the momentum from the first round, but the Ducks are still a lethal team. Dillon Gabriel leads a game-winning drive in the final seconds of another instant classic between the Ducks and Buckeyes. Oregon 38, Ohio State 37.

Paul Myerberg

An instant classic from the regular season gets a highly anticipated rematch. As in October, this one should plenty of scoring on both sides and potentially come down to which team has the final possession. While the Ducks are the no-doubt No. 1 in the playoff field and more than capable of running the table to become the first 16-0 team in modern Bowl Subdivision history, the way Ohio State played in the opening round against Tennessee makes it hard to pick against the Buckeyes. Ohio State 32, Oregon 31.

Erick Smith

Was that the Ohio State we will see the rest of the playoff or was the win against Tennessee just the Buckeyes taking advantage of a favorable matchup? It’s easy to overreact, especially with Oregon being much more capable of moving the ball here. This should come down to the quarterbacks and whether Dillon Gabriel or Will Howard perform the best. We’ll go with Gabriel to come out on top. Oregon 28, Ohio State 24.

Eddie Timanus

One was left with the impression after the first meeting that the Buckeyes would have stolen the victory if they’d had just a few more seconds. That might translate to this rematch, but the Ducks have also improved. Oregon will have made enough adjustments from the first meeting to answer all the Buckeyes’ talent. It’ll happen again. Oregon 38, Ohio State 28.

Dan Wolken

The Buckeyes nearly won in Eugene earlier in the season, and it’s extremely hard to beat a team of that quality twice. Oregon would be a worthy national champion, but it feels like the Ducks just caught a bad draw here. Ohio State 38, Oregon 35.

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Day start with an early matchup at the Peach Bowl.

Arizona State enters the game as the No. 4 seed off a bye after to winning the Big 12. While the Sun Devils were getting more than three weeks of preparation, No. 5 seed Texas was defeating Clemson in its first-round game. The Longhorns will have the benefit of being in familiar territory as they lost to Georgia in the SEC title game in Atlanta. That loss cost them a bye but might work in their favor as they won’t have a long layoff to deal with.

There are starts on both sides of the ball with running back Cam Skattebo, who finished fifth in the Heisman voting, leading the Arizona State ground attack. Texas will counter with a host of skill people behind quarterback Quinn Ewers. It shapes up to be a game that could produce fireworks.

Who will emerge victorious and head to the Cotton Bowl? Our experts weigh in.

Scooby Axson

The Sun Devils have been yapping a lot in the week before the game, and while they do not lack confidence, they will run into the same problem that Clemson did against the Longhorns. Texas is too deep and talented, and its defense will make life hell for Arizona State, and won’t let Cam Skattebo beat them. So, Sam Leavitt must prove he is a better quarterback than Quinn Ewers, at least for one game. Texas 35, Arizona State 23.

Jordan Mendoza

On paper, Texas is far better than Arizona State. But the Sun Devils ended the season red hot, and Cam Skattebo is a force to be reckoned with. The Longhorns are too sloppy offensively, and the Sun Devils pull off the upset. Arizona State 24, Texas 20.

Paul Myerberg

Texas has the firepower, athleticism and depth to make things very difficult on the Big 12 champs. For Arizona State to score a significant upset would demand an edge in the turnover margin and a herculean effort from Cam Skattebo and the running game. If that doesn’t get going, look for the Longhorns to score another double-digit win and cruise into the semifinals. Texas 36, Arizona State 24.

Erick Smith

This has the perfect storyline you would see in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament where a Cinderella makes an incredible run to the Final Four. That’s effectively what Arizona State is trying to do in reaching the semifinals with a win Wednesday. But a good fairy tale has to come to an end at some point. And it’s Texas that will be the spoiler. Just too much talent on defense for the Longhorns in this one to created a dramatic finish. Texas 31, Arizona State 14.

Eddie Timanus

The Longhorns enter their 15th game of the season, and the impact was starting to show in a late swoon of the Clemson win. Look for the rested Sun Devils and running back Cam Skattebo to take advantage and come out on top. Arizona State 27, Texas 20.

Dan Wolken

Despite persistent questions about the Longhorns offense, this seems like another cruise control game against an overmatched team. Arizona State is going to have to play perfect football to hang, and it doesn’t help that top receiver Jordyn Tyson is out with an injury. Texas 27, Arizona State 6.