DALLAS — The best player remaining in the College Football Playoff is a 6-foot-3 man-child made of steel biceps and spring-loaded legs who can’t really be guarded by his fellow student-athletes. 

And my hope for 19-year-old freshman Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is that the next two weeks are the last he’ll ever see of college football. 

It has been more than two decades since another Buckeyes star, Maurice Clarett, tried — and ultimately failed — to legally challenge the NFL’s eligibility rules that require football players to wait three years after high school before entering the draft. 

It’s time for someone to try again. And nobody has come along with a better case than Smith. 

“I mean, the guy’s NFL-ready,’ Oregon coach Dan Lanning said on New Year’s Day after Smith torched his team for 187 yards on seven receptions in the Rose Bowl. ‘He’s that talented.’ 

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In a sport where evaluating players can be brutally tough, assessing Smith is comically easy. No nuance is required to see how intelligently he runs routes, how proficiently he catches the ball and how naturally he separates from defenders. Few, if any, receivers have ever come into college football as advanced as Smith.

NFL scouts and analysts generally agree that if he were eligible for this year’s NFL draft, he would be in play — if not the outright favorite — to be picked at No. 1. Friday’s CFP semifinal against Texas here at the Cotton Bowl is likely to be another tour de force by the nation’s most gifted freshman, showcasing why he already has all the skills necessary to be a bona-fide star in the NFL. 

But as things stand, Smith won’t be in the draft until 2027. 

That’s great for college football. It’s like winning the lottery for Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day. And it’s not even that bad for Smith, who is going to bank millions of dollars in name, image and likeness deals before he ever plays a down in the NFL. 

That last part is the major separator between Smith and Clarett, who said last year at a University of New Hampshire symposium that the issues leading to his dismissal from Ohio State in 2003 began with a desperate need for $2,000 to fix the transmission on his car. 

Those hard-won, long-overdue economic rights for college athletes mean that the most likely and easiest path for Smith is to play the next two years at Ohio State, win a Heisman Trophy and become a rich young man before he even walks across the stage to shake Roger Goodell’s hand. 

That’s the power of status quo: It benefits college football because stars have to stay three years; it benefits the NFL because they have a free minor-league system and it benefits current NFL players because they have a smaller pool of new players trying to take their jobs. With NIL money flowing, it isn’t even so bad these days for someone like Smith. There are a lot worse fates than having to spend two more years as the most popular and recognizable athlete on one of the best college campuses in America. 

But every now and then, it’s good to challenge the status quo.  

“Look, cases that we thought were settled precedent like Roe v. Wade — sorry to get on platform — but suddenly it is overruled. OK?” Shira Scheindlin, the former Southern District of New York judge who initially ruled in Clarett’s favor before it was overturned by the circuit court, said at the UNH symposium looking back on the 20-year anniversary of the case. “That didn’t make me happy, but they do it. So things change.”

Even at the time, there was wide disagreement about whether the NFL’s draft-eligibility rules violated antitrust laws.

Without getting too deep into the legal weeds, the NFL essentially argued that the rule was not subject to antitrust scrutiny under a non-statutory labor exemption.

Alan Milstein, the lead attorney for Clarett, argued there was no evidence that the rule was collectively bargained and that it actually pre-dated the first collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players Association. It was simply part of the way the league had done business and that it was an illegal barrier to entering the NFL’s labor market. (The NFL did not agree with that characterization, for the record.)

In the end, Scheindlin ruled in Clarett’s favor, writing that the three-year rule ‘must be sacked.” 

The NFL took the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, where current Supreme Court judge Sonia Sotomayor authored the opinion that reversed Scheindlin’s ruling and kept the NFL rule in place. Clarett appealed to the Supreme Court, which declined to take the case in 2005, and there have been no serious challenges since. A spokesman for the NFLPA declined comment to USA TODAY Sports on whether it would support a player challenging the rule once again.

“I think there are grounds for reasonable people to differ on these issues, without a doubt,” Scheindlin said during the symposium.

But the thin lines on which Clarett’s case was decided 20 years ago underscore how fragile the NFL’s hold really has been on forcing players to go to college for three years. What if Milstein had filed the case in a different circuit that wasn’t in the NFL’s backyard? Would a Supreme Court with today’s makeup of six conservative justices have taken the case?

These are legitimate questions for which there are no clear answers, but the speculation is interesting. And the NFL obviously took it seriously: When it came time for a new CBA in 2006, this issue was part of the negotiations, and the three-year rule was written specifically into the agreement. 

Some sports law and antitrust experts, however, believe that these kinds of age-eligibility requirements could be challenged on different grounds — that those who are harmed most (like a Smith or Clarett) are outside the scope of collective bargaining. 

“To me, was a very important part of the argument (being a stranger to the bargaining unit entirely),’ Scheindlin said. “If they were to think about it today, the conservative group (on the Supreme Court) would be less concerned about the union’s feelings because those people are already players, are retired players, but they already had their shot at the NFL.”

The legal arguments are going to be far more complex than most of us non-lawyers can understand. But we all fundamentally can form an opinion on this: Does the three-year rule make sense?

In the NIL era especially, I’m not sure anymore. 

Two decades ago, there was a legitimate fear that athletes who weren’t physically or mentally ready for the NFL would rush to leave college as soon as possible, and you’d end up with a generation of washouts who didn’t get the big NFL payday and messed up their education/college development.

Now, valuable college players might be able to make as much or nearly as much money by staying an extra year as they would getting drafted in the middle of the third round. It’s just a completely different economic calculation. The idea that a college sophomore, or even perhaps an exceptional freshman, can’t physically compete in the NFL no longer should matter. Let the market decide. 

“The only reason anybody drafts somebody in the first round is because they’re ready to be drafted,” Milstein said at the symposium. “And the only reason they play is because they’re ready to play.”

Smith is, by all accounts, the rare college freshman ready to play in the NFL right now. And he should have that opportunity if he wants it. 

Antonio Pierce, gone.

Brian Callahan, staying.

Jerod Mayo, gone.

Brian Daboll, staying.

Ran Carthon, gone.

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Trent Baalke, staying.

Now take an NFL version of the Rorschach test. See the pattern?

Pierce, Mayo and Carthon are Black. And they were given the NFL equivalent of a New York minute to prove themselves on their high-powered jobs before they were fired this week with horrific win-loss records.

Callahan, Daboll and Baalke are white. Their win-loss records stink, too. Yet they will be back in their high-powered jobs, afforded more time to prove themselves. Or not.

Sure, every case includes unique details, and the Black men weren’t the only coaches and front office executives forced to walk the plank as NFL teams ignited another hiring and firing cycle.

Yet in a league that for generations has had such a sorry track record when it comes to providing opportunities to minorities, while trumpeting a creed of equality, some of the biggest moves (and non-moves) this week underscore another disturbing pattern that the NFL needs to be called on the carpet for.

You’ve heard of “sham” interviews. That suspicion prompted Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, following his stint as Miami Dolphins coach, to file a still unresolved class-action lawsuit against the NFL and several teams, alleging racial discrimination and phony interviews to comply with the Rooney Rule.

Well, the evil twin is “sham” opportunities.

According to data collected as part of USA TODAY Sports’ NFL Coaches Project, since the Rooney Rule was instituted in 2003, non-white coaches have been more than three times as likely to be fired after one season (as was the case with Pierce and Mayo) than white coaches. The Rooney Rule, named after former Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney, requires teams to interview minority candidates for head coaching jobs and other key positions.

Consider some raw numbers:

Of the 139 head coaches in the NFL since 2003, 19 (13.7%) were fired after one season in at least one of their stints.
Of the 111 white coaches during this span, 11 (9.7%) were one-and-done.
Of the 26 non-white coaches, eight (30.8%) lasted just one season.

No, don’t call it a ‘double’ standard. It’s more like minority coaches in the NFL have to endure a “triple’ standard.

And this doesn’t even account for cases where Black coaches were fired after several seasons, such as Lovie Smith and Jim Caldwell, despite posting winning records.

While there are certainly examples of teams who have embodied the spirit of the Rooney Rule, the collective rate of quickly rescinding opportunities for minority coaches is another illustration of how the league is failing on the equality front. Still.

Pierce, promoted nearly a year ago to become the Las Vegas Raiders coach after impressive impact in 2023 as interim coach (5-4), was dumped after a 4-13 finish. First-year GM Tom Telesco, by the way, has been retained.

Mayo, promoted nearly a year ago from his post as linebackers coach to succeed Bill Belichick as New England Patriots coach, was fired after a 4-13 season. It didn’t matter that Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who admitted he placed the rookie coach in an “untenable position” – inheriting a team decidedly thin on talent – created a succession plan in 2023 that contractually designated Mayo as his future coach.

Compare the Pierce and Mayo cases with that of Callahan, who just finished 3-14 in his first year as Tennessee Titans coach. Callahan, too, was a head coach for the first time. Yet the team apparently hasn’t blinked in bringing him back.

“He was a first-time head coach, and a first-time play-caller,” Chad Brinker, the Titans’ president of football operations, said Tuesday, his comments published on the team’s website. ‘There are some challenges as a first-time head coach, like building a culture, assessing current and future talent, establishing trust and communication, creating an alignment from the coaching to the front office to ownership.”

Hmmm. No knock on Callahan. Good for him. He’ll get support and more time. If only Pierce and Mayo were afforded such a luxury.

Brinker added: ‘We believe in Brian, and we want to give him the opportunity to grow into the head coach that we think he can be…It just takes time to build a program.”

Time. Ask the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell was 3-13-1 in his first season in 2021. By sticking with Campbell and GM Brad Holmes, the Lions have reversed their pattern of futility. The past two seasons, the Lions are 29-8, including postseason, and they just clinched the No. 1 seed for the upcoming season NFC playoffs.

Look at the San Francisco 49ers. They didn’t qualify for the playoffs this season, but advanced to two Super Bowls in the previous five seasons under Kyle Shanahan. His first two seasons? They were 6-10 and 4-12. He was given time.

Pierce and Mayo, though, weren’t given much of a window, benefit of the doubt and obviously the support, to, well, grow into the job as Brinker envisions for Callahan.

Were they set up to fail? It sure looks like it. It’s fair to question whether they should have been hired in the first place if they weren’t going to get a solid commitment from Kraft and Raiders owner Mark Davis. Neither Pierce nor Mayo had worked before as coordinators. Then again, Callahan, previously the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, had never called plays before becoming a head coach. So, there’s always a certain risk in hiring unproven, first-time coaches. Regardless, time matters.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants have stuck with their first-time coach. Daboll, flanked by GM Joe Schoen, stays after a 3-14 finish in his third season. Giants co-owner John Mara talked this week about his patience wearing thin. But it’s not as thin as the patience Pierce and Mayo were not afforded.

Then there’s Carthon, fired after compiling a 9-25 record in two seasons as Titans GM. With more time, perhaps he could have matched – or exceeded – the 26-44 mark that Baalke has had in four seasons as Jacksonville Jaguars GM.

Yet he, too, is gone. Baalke survived while the Jaguars fired coach Doug Pederson, who in producing a 4-13 record in 2024 didn’t do enough with the roster Jaguars owner Shad Khan hailed as the most talented one he’s had during his ownership reign.

Until this week, speculation persisted that both Pederson and Baalke wouldn’t be back.

Had Carthon returned, he would have had the No. 1 pick overall in the upcoming NFL draft his war chest. Now that’s an asset for Brinker, who Carthon hired last year as his assistant GM.

It’s reminiscent of the fate Steve Wilks encountered during brief stint with the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. Wilks was gone before the Cardinals could use the No. 1 pick overall in 2019 on Kyler Murray.

The next Patriots coach will inherit a windfall, too, as in $95 million-plus in salary cap space in 2025 — largest in the NFL. Tough timing, I guess, that Mayo didn’t get that perk when he followed in Belichick’s footsteps.

Carthon, on the other hand, might wonder how he wound up as the odd man out after hiring Brinker and leading the search to hire Callahan just last year. Talk about weird optics. Brinker, who spent 13 years in personnel with the Green Bay Packers, came in under Carthon. Then he was fast-tracked for a promotion. Now Brinker suddenly wields the power to make the final decisions on personnel — and the authority to hire the next GM.

Given NFL trends, it’s probably a good bet that he’ll get more time to pass or fail than Carthon ever had.

Just four teams are left standing in the College Football Playoff, with the action set to resume Thursday night. The first semifinal features a couple of programs with plenty of history but little championship success in the four-team playoff era or its predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series. In fact, the Fighting Irish were last named national champs in 1988, and the Nittany Lions’ last title was two years before that.

But while it’s safe to say both fan bases are more than a little hungry, all the rooters have to like what they’ve seen so far in the postseason from their respective teams. Notre Dame followed up a dominant defensive performance against upstart Indiana with another strong outing against an admittedly short-handed Georgia squad, while Penn State handled an error-prone SMU then overpowered Boise State to reach this round.

Here’s a closer look at tonight’s contest.

Orange Bowl – No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame

Time/TV/Location: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Why watch: If you like hard-hitting, old-school football, this is the game for you. The Fighting Irish defense has been the team’s strong suit all season, allowing an average of just 13.6 points a game while generating a nation’s-best total of 31 takeaways. LB Jack Kiser and DB Xavier Watts make a lot of the finishes, and the front line held up well against Georgia despite the absence of mainstay DL Rylie Mills, who sustained a knee injury in the Indiana game. The unit will now turn its attention to the stronger ground attack of the Nittany Lions featuring RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Penn State’s play-calling might have been too clever at times against Boise State, but QB Drew Allar is going to need some of those creative design situations to work against the Notre Dame secondary. Having an all-purpose weapon like TE Tyler Warren helps, but the wide receivers must also contribute. The same can be said for the Irish when they have the ball, as they’ve relied heavily on QB Riley Leonard making the right reads on short throws and keepers. Speedy RB Jeremiyah Love tweaked a knee in the Georgia game but is expected to play. RB Jadarian Price can also help Leonard with ground support, but he’ll also need WRs Beaux Collins or Jordan Faison to stretch the field. The Nittany Lions might be without top pass rusher Abdul Carter, who suffered an apparent arm injury last week, but there are other playmakers like DB Jaylen Reed and LB Kobe King on that side of the ball for Leonard to be concerned about.

WHO WINS?: Does Notre Dame or Penn State prevail in Orange Bowl?

Why it could disappoint: Due to circumstances beyond its control, Notre Dame got one less day of rest than anticipated between the Sugar Bowl and this contest. That might or might not be a factor, but in any case this would appear to be a matchup in which points will be hard to come by, and a multi-score deficit either way will be hard to surmount.

The first team to 20 points could win the Orange Bowl and play for the national championship.

The other half of the College Football Playoff national semifinals has shootout potential. Ohio State has scored a combined 83 points through two playoff games and Texas has scored 78, with a little help from two overtimes in the Peach Bowl win against Arizona State.

Things between Penn State and Notre Dame should be a little slower, a little more plodding and a lot more reliant on the play of two elite defenses.

Penn State has allowed 24 points through two playoff games. Against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, the Nittany Lions did what seemed to be impossible: contain All-America running back Ashton Jeanty. He finished with a season-low 104 rushing yards. Penn State’s defense also managed to score two touchdown in a dominant defeat of SMU in the first round.

Notre Dame held Indiana out of the end zone until two meaningless scores with minutes left in the fourth quarter and limited Georgia to just 62 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per play.

Look for these defenses to define the Orange Bowl. Here are the key factors that will determine which team goes on to play for the national championship:

Riley Leonard vs. Drew Allar

Neither has been outstanding in the playoff. Leonard completed 23 of 32 attempts for 201 yards against the Hoosiers but only 3.8 yards per attempt against Georgia, though he did run for a team-high 80 yards in the 23-10 win. Allar has been inaccurate, hitting on 27 of 50 attempts, but had three touchdowns without an interception against the Broncos.

The Nittany Lions have shown they can win when the passing game struggles to connect. But turnovers could be fatal: Penn State is 2-2 when Allar throws at least one interception, with the two wins coming by a combined 10 points against Bowling Green and Southern California.

Notre Dame trusts Leonard — the former Duke transfer has earned that with his toughness, leadership and grasp of the scheme — but the offense runs smoothest when he takes a back seat to the running game. The Fighting Irish are averaging 30.3 points per game when attempting 30 or more passes, an average inflated by a 52-point outburst against Florida State, and 39.9 points per game when making fewer than 30 attempts.

Which defense wins up front?

Penn State’s performance against Boise State showed the strength of what may be the Bowl Subdivision’s best run defense. That came against the Broncos’ offensive line, however; Notre Dame’s offensive front will present a different type of challenge.

But it’s clear that whichever team wins the battle on the line of scrimmage will win the Orange Bowl.

Penn State has allowed 1,513 rushing yards on 492 carries, or 3.1 yards per carry. Five opponents have cracked the 100-yard mark, led by Southern California’s 189 yards on 7.9 yards per carry — most of that damage came on a 75-yard scoring run in the first quarter. The Nittany Lions have held five teams under 75 yards on the ground.

Notre Dame has given up 1,791 yards on 3.6 yards per carry in one fewer game. Like the Nittany Lions, the Irish struggled against USC, allowing 197 yards and two scores, and gave up 190 yards in September’s shocking loss to Northern Illinois.

But Notre Dame’s numbers are also impacted by two games against service academies: Navy ran for 222 yards and Army for 207 yards, though they lost by a combined 72 points. And the Irish held the Black Knights nearly 100 yards below their FBS-best per-game average.

UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from college football bowl season

Who makes a big play downfield?

Neither team is adept at developing explosive plays in the passing game.

Penn State is tied for 86th nationally with 15 receptions of 30 or more yards and ranks 108th with just four gains of 40 or more yards. Notre Dame is even worse, at 130th with four passing plays of 30-plus yards and tied for 126th with one completion of 40-plus.

The Irish have overcome this lack of punch with one of the nation’s most explosive running games. They rank fourth nationally with 11 gains on the ground of 40 or more yards and are one of just eight teams in the FBS with a 90-yard gain.

In a game that will be played on the line of scrimmage, the ability to deliver one big gain downfield could change the complexion of the Orange Bowl, forcing the opposing defense to devote more resources to the back end and freeing things up inside the box.

Cleveland pushed its winning streak to 11 games and ended Oklahoma City’s 15-game winning streak in the process.

In a high-profile matchup featuring the two teams with the two best records in the NBA, the product exceeded the hype.

The Cavaliers and their No. 1 offensive defeated the Thunder and their No. 1 defense, 129-122, in a game that had 30 lead changes, eight ties and high-level performances befitting two teams with championship aspirations.

Playing at home, the Cavaliers overcame Donovan Mitchell’s off night (11 points on 3-for-16 shooting), relying on a team effort, especially offensively, that pushed their record to 32-4.

Jarrett Allen led the Cavaliers with 25 points, 12 rebounds, six assists and three steals, and teammate Evan Mobley delivered 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists. Max Strus scored 17 points and Ty Jerome 15 points off the bench as Cleveland’s reserves outscored Oklahoma City’s 43-26.

Darius Garland had 18 points and seven assists for Cleveland, which had 36 assists on 47 made field goals, shot 52.2% from the field and 41.7% on 3-pointers.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had a game-high 31 points, and Jalen Williams had 25 points, nine rebounds and three steals for the Thunder. Isaiah Hartenstein contributed 18 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists.

The two teams meet again on Jan. 16 in Oklahoma City.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder highlights

Cavaliers 123, Thunder 118: Game heading into final minutes

The first part of the fourth quarter was frenetic and sloppy but that happens sometimes with two teams who solid offensively and defensively.

Can Donovan Mitchell bust out of his shooting slump? Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander add to his MVP-caliber resume? Who will continue their winning streak?

End of third quarter: Cavaliers 103, Thunder 102

If the final 12 minutes of Thunder-Cavaliers is like what transpired in the first 36 minutes, we’re in for a treat in the fourth quarter.

Cleveland takes a 103-102 lead into the fourth quarter.

Eight of the 10 starters have reached double figures in points with Jarrett Allen (24 points, 10 rebounds, two steals) leading Cleveland and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (25 points) and Jalen Williams (23 points) leading Oklahoma City.

Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell remains stuck offensively – just eight points on 2-for-13 shooting, but Max Strus has picked up the scoring with 15 points on 5-for-6 shooting on 3-pointers.

Oklahoma City center Isaiah Hartenstein, one of the team’s savvy offseason acquisitions, inched closer to a triple-double – 14 points, eight assists and nine rebounds. His addition this season has helped soften the absence of injured center Chet Holmgren who has been sidelined the past two months with a hip injury.

Cavs leading back-and-forth game

In a game that continues to go back and forth, the Cavaliers possess an 87-81 lead with 5:56 remaining in the third quarter. Jarrett Allen has 21 points and seven rebounds and Darius Garland has 16 points and six assists for the Cavaliers.

Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is just 1-for-6 on 3-pointers but he’s 9-for-15 inside the arc and has a game-high 23 points. Jalen Williams has 18 points for OKC.

Cleveland is shooting 53.3% from the field and 39.1% on 3s and has made more free throws (14) than Oklahoma City has attempted (nine).

Halftime: Cavaliers 62, Thunder 59

The matchup of the two best teams in the NBA has lived up to the hype through two quarters. Cleveland leads Oklahoma City, 62-59, at halftime of a game that has had 12 lead changes and five ties.

Thunder MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is game’s leading scorer with 16 points, and he also has two rebounds, two assists and two steals, and teammate Jalen Williams, who is an candidate to make his first All-Star team, has 13 points.

The Cavaliers’ twin towers of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen have combined for 27 points — Allen has 15 points, six rebounds and four assists, and Mobley added 12 points, four rebounds and three assists.

Cleveland’s Donovan Mitchell struggled offensively, making just 1-for-8 attempts, and he didn’t score until he made a free throw with 1:53 left in the second quarter. His dunk with 12.6 seconds left in the first half gave the Cavs their three-point halftime lead.

Both teams shot 48.9% from the field and 35.3% on 3s.

Donovan Mitchell scoreless midway through second quarter

In a game featuring teams that are ranked in the top eight in offense and defense, there’s been a solid mix of both so far. Oklahoma City has a 49-48 advantage lead with 5:04 remaining in the second quarter, and Thunder forward Jalen Williams, who should be an All-Star this season, has contributed a team-high 11 points along with three rebounds, one assists, one steal and one block. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, one of the league’s top scorers, has 10 points.

Evan Mobley has 10 points, four rebounds and two assists, and Max Strus and Jarrett Allen each have nine points for Cleveland. Cavs star Donovan Mitchell remains scoreless, missing his six shot attempts.

End of first quarter: Thunder 32, Cavaliers 25

Eight Thunder players played in the first quarter and all eight scored, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s eight points, two assists, two rebounds and one steal as the Thunder owned a 32-25 lead after one quarter. Jalen Williams added seven points, three rebounds and a steal for OKC.

Four Cavs players combined for 22 of their points: Max Strus and Jarrett Allen each scored six points, and Dean Wade and Darius Garland each have five points. The Cavs, who have the No. 1 offense and are one of the best passing teams in the NBA, also have nine assists on nine made field goals.

Cavs star Donovan Mitchell was scoreless in the first quarter on 0-for-4 shooting. 

Cavs start hot, cool off from 3-point range

One of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, Cleveland made two quick 3s to start the game but then missed its next four as Oklahoma City grabbed a 12-10 lead with 6:33 remaining in the first quarter. Thunder forward Jalen Williams has a game-high seven point plus three rebounds.

When is Cavaliers-Thunder game?

Opening tip will be Wednesday, Jan. 8 at about 7 p.m. ET. 

Where is Cavaliers-Thunder game? 

The Cavaliers will host the Thunder from Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland. 

How to watch Cavaliers-Thunder game on TV

The game will be televised on ESPN. 

How to stream Cavaliers-Thunder game

The game will be streamed on ESPN+ and on Fubo, which offers a free trial. 

ESPN alters pregame show due to Los Angeles wildfires

With the wildfires in Southern California, ESPN’s regular ‘NBA Countdown’ crew featuring Malika Andrews was not on the air since the usual studio is in Los Angeles. ESPN’s Kevin Negandhi and Elle Duncan hosted the pregame show at the network’s Bristol, Connecticut, studios.

Cavaliers vs Thunder odds, line

The Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites to defeat the Oklahoma City Thunder during their regular-season matchup Wednesday, according to the BetMGM odds. 

Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) 
Moneyline: Cavaliers (-140); Thunder (+115) 
Over/under: 229.5 

Cavaliers starting five

PG, Darius Garland
SG, Donovan Mitchell
SF, Dean Wade
PF, Evan Mobley
C, Jarrett Allen

Thunder starting five

PG, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SG, Cason Wallace
SF, Luguentz Dort
PF, Jalen Williams
C, Isaiah Hartenstein

Is Thunder center Chet Holmgren playing vs. the Cavaliers?

Thunder center Chet Holmgren is not in the lineup for Wednesday’s game against the Cavaliers, and he hasn’t played since Nov. 10 when he sustained a right iliac wing (hip) fracture against Golden State. In 10 games this season, Holmgren averaged 16.4 points, 8.7 rebounds and 2.6 blocks and shot 50.5% from the field and 37.8% on 3-pointers.

Holmgren, the 22-year-old second-year big man who played at Gonzaga, is expected to return this season, and the Thunder planned to give an update on his return-to-play protocol this month.

In the game before the injury, he had 29 points on 8-for-14 shooting, five rebounds and three blocks in a victory against Houston. The Thunder will welcome him back but they have excelled in his absence, going 22-3 without him.

Putting the records and streaks into perspective 

Cleveland and Oklahoma City are the only two NBA teams with at least 30 victories, and it’s just the second time in NBA history that two teams have 30 wins in their first 35 games. The Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks did it in 1971-72 with the Lakers defeating the Bucks in the Western Conference finals and winning the title against the New York Knicks. 

It’s just the third time in NBA history that two teams with a winning percentage of .850 or better have met this late into a season and it’s the first time two teams from different conferences with a winning percentage of .850 or better have played this late into a season. 

This matchup also marks the first time in league a team with a 15-game winning streak faces a team with a 10-game winning streak.

Cavaliers vs. Thunder all-time record

The Cavaliers and Thunder have played 123 times against each other in the regular season, with Oklahoma City leading the series 71-52. This includes when the Thunder were known as the Seattle Supersonics from 1970-2008. This is their first meeting this season. The last time they played was Nov. 8 of last season with the Thunder winning at home, 128-120. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led OKC with 43 points, seven rebounds, six assists and two steals. The Thunder were 2-0 against the Cavs last season. 

Thunder coach Mark Daigneault on Cavaliers game 

“They’re all 1 of 82 as I always talk about, but this one’s cool. They’re the best team in the league. It’s on their home court. They’re playing really well. We’re obviously playing really well. So it’s a unique opportunity to compete against a great team, and we’re looking forward to it.” 

Cavaliers coach Kenny Atkinson on Thunder game 

“It’s why you play the game, for these big games. It’s fun for the teams involved, but it’s fun for the fans — and it’s great for the NBA. Our guys are really looking forward to it, but we’re not treating this like it’s the Finals. This is a regular season game. It’s a test. We want feedback. We want to see where we are against the best. How does their style match against our style? Both of our games against OKC would be a great, great, great evaluation for where we are against the elite teams.” 

Eastern Conference standings 

Through Tuesday, Jan. 7 

Cleveland Cavaliers 31-4 
Boston Celtics 27-10 
New York Knicks 24-13 
Orlando Magic 22-16 
Milwaukee Bucks 18-16 
Miami Heat 18-17 
Atlanta Hawks 19-18 
Indiana Pacers 19-18 
Detroit Pistons 18-18 
Chicago Bulls 17-19 
Philadelphia 76ers 14-20 
Brooklyn Nets 13-23 
Charlotte Hornets 8-27 
Toronto Raptors 8-28 
Washington Wizards 6-28 

Western Conference standings 

Through Tuesday, Jan. 7 

Oklahoma City Thunder 30-5 
Houston Rockets 24-12 
Memphis Grizzlies 24-13 
Denver Nuggets 20-15 
Dallas Mavericks 21-16 
Los Angeles Lakers 20-16 
Los Angeles Clippers 20-16 
Minnesota Timberwolves 19-17 
San Antonio Spurs 18-18 
Golden State Warriors 18-18 
Sacramento Kings 18-19 
Phoenix Suns 16-19 
Portland Trail Blazers 12-23 
Utah Jazz 9-26 
New Orleans Pelicans 7-30 

NBA season predictions 

The experts at USA TODAY Network offer predictions for the season ahead, including which team will lift the Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. 

Jeff Zillgitt: Celtics over Thunder 
Scooby Axson: Celtics over Timberwolves 
Lorenzo Reyes: Nuggets over Knicks 
Damichael Cole: Thunder over Celtics 
Dustin Dopirak: Celtics over Nuggets 
Jim Owczarski: Thunder over Celtics 
Duane Rankin: Celtics over Timberwolves 
Heather Tucker: Celtics over Suns 

NBA MVP candidates

Who is this year’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the next player to move deep into the NBA MVP conversation? Jeff Zillgitt breaks down the top candidates. 

Penn State gives off 2023 Michigan vibes. Put it this way: Jim Harbaugh could win a national title with this Penn State team. What about James Franklin?
Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman describes Orange Bowl opponent Penn State as ‘talented, disciplined, tough.’ All true.
James Franklin’s history in big games might explain why Penn State has longest odds of winning national championship among CFP semifinal teams.

College football’s bards mused this playoff lacked a dominant team, like 2019 LSU or 2020 Alabama, although Ohio State sprints closer to resembling those past juggernauts.

What about 2023 Michigan, though? Anyone guilty of being the Wolverines’ doppelganger? You know, that team that went undefeated a year ago, but doesn’t garner the same respect as some recent champions from the SEC? (Michigan’s cheating might have something to do with that.)

Look inside the Big Ten to spot a potential Michigan 2.0.

I give you Penn State.

Let’s tour the Nittany Lions:

∎ Bruising defense, equipped with dudes who wreak havoc and live in the opponent’s backfield.

∎ Two splendid running backs, one as good as the other.

∎ A pass attack that highlights a tight end suited for the NFL.

Stop me if this sounds familiar. Should I keep going? OK.

∎ A veteran quarterback enjoying a career-best season.

∎ Dependable offensive line.

∎ Efficient in the red zone.

Who’s this sounding like? It’s sounding like 2023 Michigan.

Penn State can replicate Michigan if James Franklin shakes past

A key difference is that Michigan enjoyed undefeated distinction, while Penn State lost to Ohio State and Oregon.

Another difference? Penn State employs no one in a cheap disguise stealing the opponent’s signs.

But, the absence of a Connor Stalions doesn’t much influence Penn State as much as the presence of James Franklin. His baggage in big games introduces an overdose of doubt toward the Nittany Lions.

Why do sportsbooks give Penn State the longest odds of winning the national championship? Franklin’s paltry performance in games of magnitude, like Penn State’s Orange Bowl matchup with Notre Dame on Thursday, must play a factor.

Ohio State fans grumble about Ryan Day’s flops, but Day’s shortcomings mostly center on one opponent. He stinks against Michigan, but you won’t find Michigan in this playoff.

In the absence of their kryptonite, Day and the Buckeyes emerged stronger in the postseason. Day never has faced his Cotton Bowl adversary, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian, but he’s a combined 8-0 against the two coaches opposite Ohio State on the bracket, Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Penn State’s Franklin.

Day beat Franklin for the sixth consecutive time in November, when his Buckeyes emerged from Happy Valley with a 20-13 victory. A game that started with the Nittany Lions building a 10-point lead ended with Franklin shouting at a heckling fan while the coach exited the field.

As good as Penn State looked in its first two playoff victories, those results didn’t reverse Franklin’s narrative in marquee games. No one would mistake SMU for Notre Dame. No blue blood runs in Boise State’s veins, only blue turf.

Examination of Penn State’s playoff victories, though, reveals shades of Michigan.

“It’s a very talented, disciplined, tough football team,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman said of Penn State. “Very creative offense. Utilizes a bunch of different personnel, a bunch of different formations. Going to force you to be extremely disciplined.”

That’s not coach-speak. Freeman accurately described Penn State, and facing Franklin’s squad will be a lot like looking in the mirror for Notre Dame.

THREE KEYS: Breaking down the Notre Dame-Penn State matchup

Notre Dame the type of team that beats James Franklin

Here’s the quiet part no opposing coach would say out loud: Franklin shrivels against opponents of Notre Dame’s stature. He becomes a bespectacled turtle upon sight of a big dog. He’s pitiful against top-five teams and the biggest brands.

Penn State fans won’t need this reminder, but for the rest of us, consider Franklin’s Penn State record against these opponents:

vs. Ohio State: 1-10

vs. Michigan: 3-7

vs. Michigan State: 5-5

vs. SEC opponents: 2-4

Franklin avoided embarrassment by smashing SMU and handling Boise State. He’d earn respect by beating Notre Dame.

Trust Penn State in Orange Bowl means trusting James Franklin

Jim Harbaugh performed woefully bad in the postseason before winning the national championship. You don’t win the big game until you do. Michigan’s khaki king never won a College Football Playoff game until he burned his blaze of victories last season, not stopping before he’d left for the NFL.

Kirby Smart and Dabo Swinney are college football’s only active coaches to have won national championships, meaning that no matter who’s celebrating on Jan. 20 in Atlanta, a coach will have captured his first national title.

Could it be Franklin? The team’s makeup indicates yes. It’s not the most complete left in the bracket – looking at you, Buckeyes – but Penn State resembles 2023 Michigan, and 2023 Michigan would contend in this tournament.

Previously, I’ve labeled Penn State a light beer version of 2023 Michigan, but there have been plenty of games this season in which the Nittany Lions played like a full-bodied brew, and there’s nothing watered down about Penn State’s superstar tight end Tyler Warren or defensive menaces Abdul Carter and Kobe King.

Put it this way: Harbaugh could win a national championship with this Penn State team.

I like the team. I just don’t entirely trust the coach.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network’s national college football columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.

Though “Black Monday” has evolved into something that’s more of a battleship gray – Doug Pederson, formerly of the Jaguars, was the only NFL head coach fired the day after the 2024 regular season concluded – there are nevertheless (currently) a half-dozen vacancies across a league that remains in constant flux but has simply moved away from 24 hours of mass professional carnage.

Alternately, the diminution of Black Monday also underscores the possibility – perhaps likelihood – that more coaching changes are coming down the pike. Some owners simply take more time before rendering a decision – the Raiders’ Mark Davis dismissed Antonio Pierce on Tuesday – while surprise retirements, resignations and the playoffs can also suddenly alter the landscape. There’s also a unique circumstance this year as Mike McCarthy’s contract is set to expire, but he can’t negotiate with other teams until Jan. 14 – meaning he and the Dallas Cowboys will either come to a mutual agreement to remain professionally hitched or will opt for a parting of the ways.

So while the list could certainly grow beyond six* openings, let’s assess the current ones from most attractive to least:

1. New England Patriots

Quarterback situation

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Tom Brady’s unparalleled achievements cast a very wide shadow here. Yet it appears that Drake Maye, the No. 3 pick in last year’s draft, has a very good chance to be a very good long-term answer himself. Given its apparent weaknesses, the organization was probably wise to hold Maye back in the early stages of the 2024 campaign. However he frequently did a nice job making lemonade out of lemons, especially with his legs – Maye’s 7.8 yards per attempt were the highest in the league among players with at least 50 rushes. His arm strength and moxie were also quite apparent. He’ll obviously need more help in 2025 – and the team is well equipped to provide it – but the Pats were noticeably more competitive when Maye was on the field than they were under journeyman Jacoby Brissett.

Rookie Joe Milton’s scintillating performance in Week 18 illustrated why New England carried the highly talented – but raw – sixth-round rookie on the active roster all season rather than expose him on the practice squad. Even if his long-term future isn’t in Foxborough, he might be a valuable commodity in the future if he continues to progress. Adding a veteran backup will probably be necessary if Brissett doesn’t re-sign.

Roster

It’s not pretty. Bill Belichick, who had a large hand in constructing this team, was famous for getting the most out of individual players and tailoring game plans to their specific strengths. His very brief replacement, Jerod Mayo, couldn’t do that in 2024, though – in fairness – neither did Belichick in 2023.

CBs Christian Gonzalez and Marcus Jones seem to be long-term building blocks along with DE Keion White. But one couldn’t blame the Patriots if they invested all of their cap and draft resources in 2025 into the offense in a bid to support Maye. Ja’Lynn Polk was a notable disappointment in 2024, but he isn’t the first wideout to struggle mightily as a rookie.

Salary cap

New England is projected to have nearly $124 million in available cap space this year, per OverTheCap, the most in the league. It’s a tempting component of the job for the next coach given the opportunity to realistically target players he might want – perhaps a rising star like WR Tee Higgins, who’s coming off a franchise tag in Cincinnati.

Executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf was mainly responsible for managing the roster in 2024. But owner Robert Kraft hasn’t divulged what Wolf’s role will be moving forward, though he is expected to remain with the organization.

2025 NFL draft

Sunday’s victory against Buffalo was hardly meaningless – it cost the Patriots this year’s No. 1 pick and dropped them to fourth in Round 1. And while falling three spots might not seem like an especially big deal for a team that won’t be in the market for a young quarterback, significant capital was likely lost in a year where the QB crop appears thin and trading that top selection might have brought a nice return. New England does own an extra third-rounder.

Outlook

The presumption is that Kraft will pursue Mike Vrabel, who’s already a proven NFL head coach – unlike Mayo – and also a Patriots legend who earned three rings as a linebacker in the early years of the Belichick-Brady dynasty and was a member of the legendary 18-1 team in 2007. But despite the quick pivots from Belichick to Mayo to whomever is next – and Kraft has rightly taken blame for the quick hook on Mayo – this is typically a first-class organization that knows what winning looks like and spares no expense or effort in pursuit of that goal. Kraft will surely take a painstaking approach to getting the next hire right, ensuring the org chart flows logically while passing the torch to someone who will have an enviable number of resources for what the fan base – and owner – will expect to be a resumption of Super Bowl aspirations.

2. Chicago Bears

Quarterback situation

Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2024 draft and widely regarded as a generational prospect, is supposed to be this franchise’s savior. It didn’t go that way during his highly uneven rookie season, when he too often reverted to his bad college habits by consistently trying to force the issue on lost plays while absorbing a league-worst 68 sacks. Yet Williams also flashed the brilliance that landed him in this position and, while he made plenty of mistakes in terms of game management, he also set a rookie record by throwing 353 consecutive passes without an interception. Bottom line, his presence and potential will be quite an enticement for prospective coaches – Ben Johnson? – eyeing this job.

There’s also plenty to like about 24-year-old backup Tyson Bagent, but it would probably behoove the organization to bring in a veteran to tutor Williams and perhaps serve as a trusted sounding board for both youngsters.

Roster

There are plenty of good players here, notably WRs DJ Moore and Rome Odunze, who was picked eight spots after Williams, RB D’Andre Swift and TE Cole Kmet – though their collective output was certainly depressed by the offense’s dysfunction in 2024. The O-line has room to improve, but it shouldn’t be inordinately blamed for Williams’ outlandish sack total, the rookie causing quite a bit of self-sabotage.

The defense regressed but appears set in key spots with CB Jaylon Johnson, LB Tremaine Edmunds and pass rusher Montez Sweat. All of them need to play better in 2025, and the front seven could use reinforcements.

WR Keenan Allen and G Teven Jenkins are the most notable free agents.

Salary cap

The team is projected to have more than $80 million to spend in free agency, which is presently among the five highest bankrolls in the league. Talent acquisition hasn’t been an issue for GM Ryan Poles, though it obviously needs to coalesce better under the next coaching staff.

2025 NFL draft

Poles’ trade of the No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft has one more dividend to pay as the Bears own Carolina’s second-rounder this year. That should mean Chicago picks four times among the top 72 selections, including 10th overall – and there’s definitely more work to do in order to build up the supporting cast around Williams.

Outlook

The prospect of working with Williams on a rookie contract – and with so many other quality pieces in place – should make this a highly desirable job. However a rabid fan base looking for something more than 1985 highlights and memories will expect near-instant results – which won’t be easy in the NFC North, which just sent its three other members into the postseason field. And while the roster is solid, whoever succeeds Matt Eberflus must also ensure there’s philosophical alignment with team president Kevin Warren and Poles given the good work that was done in 2024 was undermined by a lack of appropriate coaching infrastructure to properly develop a rookie quarterback.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars

Quarterback situation

Unlike numerous teams throughout the NFL, they have their guy in Trevor Lawrence – that certainty cemented by the five-year, $275 million extension he signed in June, tied for the second-largest contract in league history while linking him to the club through the 2030 season.

But there’s a flip side to that stability given Lawrence has yet to live up to his billing as the top pick of the 2021 draft, when he was hyped as a prospect bound to make an impact on par with John Elway or Peyton Manning. Not only has that not happened – Lawrence has been a Pro Bowler one time and taken the Jags to the playoffs once – but injuries have undercut his performance the past two seasons.

After his rookie year was squandered by Urban Meyer, Lawrence generally played better under Pederson. But the next coach must certainly find a way to truly unlock his potential.

The backup situation will need to be addressed anew with Mac Jones headed for free agency.

Roster

Regardless of how one assesses Lawrence, there’s a nice nucleus here. Rookie Brian Thomas Jr. was a breakout star on a receiver corps that already boasted Christian Kirk and TE Evan Engram. The defense is stocked with a first-rate pass rusher in Josh Hines-Allen and promising youngsters like Travon Walker, Devin Lloyd and Tyson Campbell. Work needs to be done in the trenches, and the rushing attack in particular never really got on track in 2024.

A talent deficit is not a major issue in Duval County even if, overall, the whole has seemingly been less than the sum of the parts here for some time.

Salary cap

Barring any significant roster adjustments – Kirk has occasionally been involved in trade rumors, for example – the Jags should have about $35 million available, which puts them in the middle of the pack league-wide.

2025 NFL draft

Not only does Jacksonville have a top-five pick – No. 5 to be exact – that can be earmarked for the best available player, it has 10 selections overall, which should allow for great flexibility to maneuver around the board if not an opportunity to simply bring in more young talent.

Outlook

This team is only two years removed from winning the AFC South and reaching the divisional round of the playoffs. It nearly won the division again in 2023 despite a rash of injuries. There’s plenty to like here, from the players to the local golf courses.

Yet one intriguing element is the ongoing employment of GM Trent Baalke, who is about to work with his fifth different head coach (interim included) since he joined the front office in 2020. Pederson’s successor will have to take that for what it’s worth, but it’s hard to ignore the power dynamic.

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4. New York Jets

Quarterback situation

So much to unpack here … or pack.

Coming off a hugely disappointing year, Aaron Rodgers has been less than forthcoming about his future plans but is under contract for 2025 (and so is backup Tyrod Taylor). Talented former Florida State star Jordan Travis effectively took a medical redshirt during his rookie year as he continues to work his way back from the grisly ankle injury that ended his Seminoles career late in the 2023 season.

Could be a lot of moving parts here … and there could just as easily be none.

Roster

Recently fired GM Joe Douglas brought plenty of talent into this building – and plenty of players favored by Rodgers – but it never got the Jets close to breaking the league’s longest playoff drought, which now stands at 14 seasons. The high point of Douglas’ tenure was a 2022 draft class that includes CB Sauce Gardner, WR Garrett Wilson – both rookies of the year on their respective sides of the ball – Pro Bowl OLB Jermaine Johnson II and RB Breece Hall. In yet another tricky obstacle course for the Jets’ next brain trust to navigate, all are eligible for extensions this year – though Wilson was the only one of the quartet to play close to his ability in 2024. Johnson missed most of the season with a torn Achilles.

Brothers Quinnen and Quincy Williams have been defensive mainstays, and pass rusher Will McDonald IV had a breakthrough in his sophomore season. The offensive line improved yet will field two new tackles in 2025 with Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses out of contract. CB D.J. Reed is the Jets’ best player poised to hit the open market.

Salary cap

As matters stand now, the Jets have nearly $30 million in cap room. But given the uncertainty around Rodgers, Adams and probably others, that figure seems bound to be fluid.

2025 NFL draft

They’ll select seventh overall in Round 1 – but in a year with an unimpressive quarterback crop. They own the Lions’ third-rounder (96th overall) … but surrendered their own – which comes 23 spots earlier – to acquire Adams in October.

Outlook

Quite obviously, a very mixed bag – one with the potential for an instant about-face given the talent quotient if not necessarily set up for the restart a new coach and general manager might prefer. From a cap standpoint, it probably makes sense to retain Rodgers – if he even wants to play – given how difficult it will be to obtain anyone worthy of promoting as the next quarterbacking savior in 2025. Yet Rodgers’ presence would doubtless be problematic for a new regime trying to lay the groundwork for sustained success, which will be inherently difficult given the impatient nature and problematic reputation that continues to dog owner Woody Johnson – though he is unfailingly willing to invest resources into his wayward football team. Buyer enjoy and buyer beware.

5. New Orleans Saints

Quarterback situation

Meh? Since coming to the Big Easy in 2023, Derek Carr has pretty much been what he was with the Raiders – solid, steady … unspectacular. He’s essentially exemplified the league average, going 14-13 in 27 starts with the Saints and posting a 98.8 QB rating that’s seven points better than his mark with the Raiders. It’s a decent body of work, especially considering some of the protection problems Carr has had and a steady rate of injuries affecting him (he missed seven games in 2024) and his receiver corps.

It’s also not exactly what New Orleans was hoping for after signing Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract – the franchise trying to restore itself as an NFC South power after wallowing around .500 following Drew Brees’ retirement in the aftermath of the 2020 season. Yet it’s been status quo at best with Carr, the club still mired in a rut and failing again to qualify for its first playoff game since Brees and Co. were ousted four years ago.

Youngsters Spencer Rattler, 24, and Jake Haener, 25, struggled while getting shots to play when Carr was unavailable. Rattler’s intriguing potential dates to his high school days and sometimes-promising tenures at the University of Oklahoma and University of South Carolina. The rookie was the first quarterback drafted last year outside the first round (Round 5) and didn’t exactly get to play with a full deck given the Saints’ heap of injury issues.

New Orleans is scheduled to pick ninth in the first round of this year’s draft. Cutting Carr would mean a $50 million dead cap hit but would spare the Saints from paying his base salary, which balloons from $1.2 million in 2024 to $30 million next season and $50 million in 2026. It would also stand to reason that a new coach, especially an offensively minded one, probably would prefer to chart a course that doesn’t include Carr in what would likely be a temporary role.

Roster

Several name brands here – LB Demario Davis, DE Cam Jordan and RB Alvin Kamara among them. But aside from Kamara, who recently signed a two-year extension, they’re all pretty much in concerning decline. GM Mickey Loomis admitted after Dennis Allen’s midseason firing that the former head coach had been victimized by ‘an avalanche of injuries.’

The future foundation will seemingly be comprised of relative youngsters such as DT Bryan Bresee, LT Taliese Fuaga, DE Carl Granderson, C Erik McCoy, CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, WR Chris Olave, G Cesar Ruiz, WR Rashid Shaheed, DB Alontae Taylor and LB Pete Werner. It doesn’t necessarily seem like a nascent powerhouse, yet it’s also far from an empty cupboard.

Salary cap

No team runs up the NFL version of credit card debt like this one, and it could be an important consideration for anyone who chooses to team with Loomis, who just finished his 23rd season with the small-market franchise and is currently the league’s longest-serving general manager. The Saints typically spread out contractual cap hits by adding void years to player contracts. New Orleans is presently more than $50 million overspent in 2025 – the largest figure in the league by orders of magnitude – and that’s before incurring the potential hit that would be created by parting with Carr. The team typically does a series of significant restructures and/or releases every March to become cap compliant, but that can handcuff the Saints once free agency begins in earnest. DE Chase Young, who signed a one-year, $13 million pact, was the only significant addition in 2024.

2025 NFL draft

Their organic picks mean they’ll select in the top 10 in each of the first four rounds. Trading CB Marshon Lattimore at midseason also upped the arsenal nicely, the Pro Bowler netting an extra third- and fourth-rounder in a deal with the Commanders. The added capital at least provides flexibility if Loomis opts to pursue a passer.

Outlook

When you’re talking about one of 32 jobs, prospective candidates are unlikely to turn their noses up at this one. There’s enough to like and (currently) a stable enough front office and ownership situation that the next man up should get a decent runway to flourish. Few fans are as passionate as New Orleans’, and the civic bond to the organization was only strengthened by Hurricane Katrina. This job may rate lower among the vacancies, but that doesn’t mean it’s one to run from.

6. Las Vegas Raiders

Quarterback situation

If you’ve got five, as the Silver and Black did at the end of their season, the problem is self-evident. Aidan O’Connell, Desmond Ridder and rookie Carter Bradley wound up on the active roster with Gardner Minshew II on injured reserve and Jake Luton on the practice squad. Statistically, the Raiders actually had a middling passing game in 2024, if only because of a complete inability to run the ball.

But it was also patently obvious why they coveted Jayden Daniels in last year’s draft. O’Connell has shown enough to be a bridge to the future and maybe a long-term backup – roles that Minshew has capably executed. But barring the pursuit of, say, Sam Darnold, difficult to discern where a 2025 solution is emanating from.

Roster

DT Christian Wilkins only appeared in five games after signing a huge contract in free agency. Tyree Wilson, the No. 7 pick in 2023, hasn’t made an impact.

GM Tom Telesco has ample work ahead of him and probably has to at least consider trading Crosby, who has in many ways become the face of the franchise but has also grown tired of losing. His value is unlikely to get any higher.

Salary cap

Telesco will have more than $100 million for free agency – only the Patriots are expected to have more spending power – which could make the Raiders a player for someone like Darnold if he becomes available and certainly opens up additional possibilities.

2025 NFL draft

With the Jets’ third-rounder at his disposal, Telesco has four of the top 73 selections, including No. 6 overall – though there appear to be three QB-needy teams ahead of him (Titans, Browns, Giants). Regardless, the Raiders could be in striking of distance of passers like Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders … if they want to be.

Outlook

If this franchise is indeed turning around, it’s reversing course with the speed of an aircraft carrier (which isn’t quickly for you non-sailors). The next coach will be Las Vegas’ fifth, interim ones included, over a five-season period, so stability has obviously been lacking. And it will be interesting to monitor the role of Brady, who’s now a minority stakeholder in the organization and seems likely to be influential in terms of philosophical and personnel input. He’s already reportedly attempted to woo Belichick away from UNC.

Pierce consistently got this team to play hard, but the horsepower hasn’t been there. And re-establishing a ‘Commitment to Excellence’ will likely only get harder with the Raiders left by the wayside as the other three AFC West teams prepare for postseason, the Chargers and Broncos well ahead on their reboots and pursuit of the champion Chiefs. But at least initial expectations here should be manageable … theoretically.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.