DALLAS — The best player remaining in the College Football Playoff is a 6-foot-3 man-child made of steel biceps and spring-loaded legs who can’t really be guarded by his fellow student-athletes. 

And my hope for 19-year-old freshman Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith is that the next two weeks are the last he’ll ever see of college football. 

It has been more than two decades since another Buckeyes star, Maurice Clarett, tried — and ultimately failed — to legally challenge the NFL’s eligibility rules that require football players to wait three years after high school before entering the draft. 

It’s time for someone to try again. And nobody has come along with a better case than Smith. 

“I mean, the guy’s NFL-ready,’ Oregon coach Dan Lanning said on New Year’s Day after Smith torched his team for 187 yards on seven receptions in the Rose Bowl. ‘He’s that talented.’ 

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In a sport where evaluating players can be brutally tough, assessing Smith is comically easy. No nuance is required to see how intelligently he runs routes, how proficiently he catches the ball and how naturally he separates from defenders. Few, if any, receivers have ever come into college football as advanced as Smith.

NFL scouts and analysts generally agree that if he were eligible for this year’s NFL draft, he would be in play — if not the outright favorite — to be picked at No. 1. Friday’s CFP semifinal against Texas here at the Cotton Bowl is likely to be another tour de force by the nation’s most gifted freshman, showcasing why he already has all the skills necessary to be a bona-fide star in the NFL. 

But as things stand, Smith won’t be in the draft until 2027. 

That’s great for college football. It’s like winning the lottery for Ohio State and head coach Ryan Day. And it’s not even that bad for Smith, who is going to bank millions of dollars in name, image and likeness deals before he ever plays a down in the NFL. 

That last part is the major separator between Smith and Clarett, who said last year at a University of New Hampshire symposium that the issues leading to his dismissal from Ohio State in 2003 began with a desperate need for $2,000 to fix the transmission on his car. 

Those hard-won, long-overdue economic rights for college athletes mean that the most likely and easiest path for Smith is to play the next two years at Ohio State, win a Heisman Trophy and become a rich young man before he even walks across the stage to shake Roger Goodell’s hand. 

That’s the power of status quo: It benefits college football because stars have to stay three years; it benefits the NFL because they have a free minor-league system and it benefits current NFL players because they have a smaller pool of new players trying to take their jobs. With NIL money flowing, it isn’t even so bad these days for someone like Smith. There are a lot worse fates than having to spend two more years as the most popular and recognizable athlete on one of the best college campuses in America. 

But every now and then, it’s good to challenge the status quo.  

“Look, cases that we thought were settled precedent like Roe v. Wade — sorry to get on platform — but suddenly it is overruled. OK?” Shira Scheindlin, the former Southern District of New York judge who initially ruled in Clarett’s favor before it was overturned by the circuit court, said at the UNH symposium looking back on the 20-year anniversary of the case. “That didn’t make me happy, but they do it. So things change.”

Even at the time, there was wide disagreement about whether the NFL’s draft-eligibility rules violated antitrust laws.

Without getting too deep into the legal weeds, the NFL essentially argued that the rule was not subject to antitrust scrutiny under a non-statutory labor exemption.

Alan Milstein, the lead attorney for Clarett, argued there was no evidence that the rule was collectively bargained and that it actually pre-dated the first collective bargaining agreement with the NFL Players Association. It was simply part of the way the league had done business and that it was an illegal barrier to entering the NFL’s labor market. (The NFL did not agree with that characterization, for the record.)

In the end, Scheindlin ruled in Clarett’s favor, writing that the three-year rule ‘must be sacked.” 

The NFL took the case to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit, where current Supreme Court judge Sonia Sotomayor authored the opinion that reversed Scheindlin’s ruling and kept the NFL rule in place. Clarett appealed to the Supreme Court, which declined to take the case in 2005, and there have been no serious challenges since. A spokesman for the NFLPA declined comment to USA TODAY Sports on whether it would support a player challenging the rule once again.

“I think there are grounds for reasonable people to differ on these issues, without a doubt,” Scheindlin said during the symposium.

But the thin lines on which Clarett’s case was decided 20 years ago underscore how fragile the NFL’s hold really has been on forcing players to go to college for three years. What if Milstein had filed the case in a different circuit that wasn’t in the NFL’s backyard? Would a Supreme Court with today’s makeup of six conservative justices have taken the case?

These are legitimate questions for which there are no clear answers, but the speculation is interesting. And the NFL obviously took it seriously: When it came time for a new CBA in 2006, this issue was part of the negotiations, and the three-year rule was written specifically into the agreement. 

Some sports law and antitrust experts, however, believe that these kinds of age-eligibility requirements could be challenged on different grounds — that those who are harmed most (like a Smith or Clarett) are outside the scope of collective bargaining. 

“To me, was a very important part of the argument (being a stranger to the bargaining unit entirely),’ Scheindlin said. “If they were to think about it today, the conservative group (on the Supreme Court) would be less concerned about the union’s feelings because those people are already players, are retired players, but they already had their shot at the NFL.”

The legal arguments are going to be far more complex than most of us non-lawyers can understand. But we all fundamentally can form an opinion on this: Does the three-year rule make sense?

In the NIL era especially, I’m not sure anymore. 

Two decades ago, there was a legitimate fear that athletes who weren’t physically or mentally ready for the NFL would rush to leave college as soon as possible, and you’d end up with a generation of washouts who didn’t get the big NFL payday and messed up their education/college development.

Now, valuable college players might be able to make as much or nearly as much money by staying an extra year as they would getting drafted in the middle of the third round. It’s just a completely different economic calculation. The idea that a college sophomore, or even perhaps an exceptional freshman, can’t physically compete in the NFL no longer should matter. Let the market decide. 

“The only reason anybody drafts somebody in the first round is because they’re ready to be drafted,” Milstein said at the symposium. “And the only reason they play is because they’re ready to play.”

Smith is, by all accounts, the rare college freshman ready to play in the NFL right now. And he should have that opportunity if he wants it. 

Antonio Pierce, gone.

Brian Callahan, staying.

Jerod Mayo, gone.

Brian Daboll, staying.

Ran Carthon, gone.

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Trent Baalke, staying.

Now take an NFL version of the Rorschach test. See the pattern?

Pierce, Mayo and Carthon are Black. And they were given the NFL equivalent of a New York minute to prove themselves on their high-powered jobs before they were fired this week with horrific win-loss records.

Callahan, Daboll and Baalke are white. Their win-loss records stink, too. Yet they will be back in their high-powered jobs, afforded more time to prove themselves. Or not.

Sure, every case includes unique details, and the Black men weren’t the only coaches and front office executives forced to walk the plank as NFL teams ignited another hiring and firing cycle.

Yet in a league that for generations has had such a sorry track record when it comes to providing opportunities to minorities, while trumpeting a creed of equality, some of the biggest moves (and non-moves) this week underscore another disturbing pattern that the NFL needs to be called on the carpet for.

You’ve heard of “sham” interviews. That suspicion prompted Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores, following his stint as Miami Dolphins coach, to file a still unresolved class-action lawsuit against the NFL and several teams, alleging racial discrimination and phony interviews to comply with the Rooney Rule.

Well, the evil twin is “sham” opportunities.

According to data collected as part of USA TODAY Sports’ NFL Coaches Project, since the Rooney Rule was instituted in 2003, non-white coaches have been more than three times as likely to be fired after one season (as was the case with Pierce and Mayo) than white coaches. The Rooney Rule, named after former Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney, requires teams to interview minority candidates for head coaching jobs and other key positions.

Consider some raw numbers:

Of the 139 head coaches in the NFL since 2003, 19 (13.7%) were fired after one season in at least one of their stints.
Of the 111 white coaches during this span, 11 (9.7%) were one-and-done.
Of the 26 non-white coaches, eight (30.8%) lasted just one season.

No, don’t call it a ‘double’ standard. It’s more like minority coaches in the NFL have to endure a “triple’ standard.

And this doesn’t even account for cases where Black coaches were fired after several seasons, such as Lovie Smith and Jim Caldwell, despite posting winning records.

While there are certainly examples of teams who have embodied the spirit of the Rooney Rule, the collective rate of quickly rescinding opportunities for minority coaches is another illustration of how the league is failing on the equality front. Still.

Pierce, promoted nearly a year ago to become the Las Vegas Raiders coach after impressive impact in 2023 as interim coach (5-4), was dumped after a 4-13 finish. First-year GM Tom Telesco, by the way, has been retained.

Mayo, promoted nearly a year ago from his post as linebackers coach to succeed Bill Belichick as New England Patriots coach, was fired after a 4-13 season. It didn’t matter that Patriots owner Robert Kraft, who admitted he placed the rookie coach in an “untenable position” – inheriting a team decidedly thin on talent – created a succession plan in 2023 that contractually designated Mayo as his future coach.

Compare the Pierce and Mayo cases with that of Callahan, who just finished 3-14 in his first year as Tennessee Titans coach. Callahan, too, was a head coach for the first time. Yet the team apparently hasn’t blinked in bringing him back.

“He was a first-time head coach, and a first-time play-caller,” Chad Brinker, the Titans’ president of football operations, said Tuesday, his comments published on the team’s website. ‘There are some challenges as a first-time head coach, like building a culture, assessing current and future talent, establishing trust and communication, creating an alignment from the coaching to the front office to ownership.”

Hmmm. No knock on Callahan. Good for him. He’ll get support and more time. If only Pierce and Mayo were afforded such a luxury.

Brinker added: ‘We believe in Brian, and we want to give him the opportunity to grow into the head coach that we think he can be…It just takes time to build a program.”

Time. Ask the Detroit Lions. Dan Campbell was 3-13-1 in his first season in 2021. By sticking with Campbell and GM Brad Holmes, the Lions have reversed their pattern of futility. The past two seasons, the Lions are 29-8, including postseason, and they just clinched the No. 1 seed for the upcoming season NFC playoffs.

Look at the San Francisco 49ers. They didn’t qualify for the playoffs this season, but advanced to two Super Bowls in the previous five seasons under Kyle Shanahan. His first two seasons? They were 6-10 and 4-12. He was given time.

Pierce and Mayo, though, weren’t given much of a window, benefit of the doubt and obviously the support, to, well, grow into the job as Brinker envisions for Callahan.

Were they set up to fail? It sure looks like it. It’s fair to question whether they should have been hired in the first place if they weren’t going to get a solid commitment from Kraft and Raiders owner Mark Davis. Neither Pierce nor Mayo had worked before as coordinators. Then again, Callahan, previously the Cincinnati Bengals offensive coordinator, had never called plays before becoming a head coach. So, there’s always a certain risk in hiring unproven, first-time coaches. Regardless, time matters.

Meanwhile, the New York Giants have stuck with their first-time coach. Daboll, flanked by GM Joe Schoen, stays after a 3-14 finish in his third season. Giants co-owner John Mara talked this week about his patience wearing thin. But it’s not as thin as the patience Pierce and Mayo were not afforded.

Then there’s Carthon, fired after compiling a 9-25 record in two seasons as Titans GM. With more time, perhaps he could have matched – or exceeded – the 26-44 mark that Baalke has had in four seasons as Jacksonville Jaguars GM.

Yet he, too, is gone. Baalke survived while the Jaguars fired coach Doug Pederson, who in producing a 4-13 record in 2024 didn’t do enough with the roster Jaguars owner Shad Khan hailed as the most talented one he’s had during his ownership reign.

Until this week, speculation persisted that both Pederson and Baalke wouldn’t be back.

Had Carthon returned, he would have had the No. 1 pick overall in the upcoming NFL draft his war chest. Now that’s an asset for Brinker, who Carthon hired last year as his assistant GM.

It’s reminiscent of the fate Steve Wilks encountered during brief stint with the Arizona Cardinals in 2018. Wilks was gone before the Cardinals could use the No. 1 pick overall in 2019 on Kyler Murray.

The next Patriots coach will inherit a windfall, too, as in $95 million-plus in salary cap space in 2025 — largest in the NFL. Tough timing, I guess, that Mayo didn’t get that perk when he followed in Belichick’s footsteps.

Carthon, on the other hand, might wonder how he wound up as the odd man out after hiring Brinker and leading the search to hire Callahan just last year. Talk about weird optics. Brinker, who spent 13 years in personnel with the Green Bay Packers, came in under Carthon. Then he was fast-tracked for a promotion. Now Brinker suddenly wields the power to make the final decisions on personnel — and the authority to hire the next GM.

Given NFL trends, it’s probably a good bet that he’ll get more time to pass or fail than Carthon ever had.

Just four teams are left standing in the College Football Playoff, with the action set to resume Thursday night. The first semifinal features a couple of programs with plenty of history but little championship success in the four-team playoff era or its predecessor, the Bowl Championship Series. In fact, the Fighting Irish were last named national champs in 1988, and the Nittany Lions’ last title was two years before that.

But while it’s safe to say both fan bases are more than a little hungry, all the rooters have to like what they’ve seen so far in the postseason from their respective teams. Notre Dame followed up a dominant defensive performance against upstart Indiana with another strong outing against an admittedly short-handed Georgia squad, while Penn State handled an error-prone SMU then overpowered Boise State to reach this round.

Here’s a closer look at tonight’s contest.

Orange Bowl – No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 7 Notre Dame

Time/TV/Location: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN, Miami Gardens, Fla.

Why watch: If you like hard-hitting, old-school football, this is the game for you. The Fighting Irish defense has been the team’s strong suit all season, allowing an average of just 13.6 points a game while generating a nation’s-best total of 31 takeaways. LB Jack Kiser and DB Xavier Watts make a lot of the finishes, and the front line held up well against Georgia despite the absence of mainstay DL Rylie Mills, who sustained a knee injury in the Indiana game. The unit will now turn its attention to the stronger ground attack of the Nittany Lions featuring RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Penn State’s play-calling might have been too clever at times against Boise State, but QB Drew Allar is going to need some of those creative design situations to work against the Notre Dame secondary. Having an all-purpose weapon like TE Tyler Warren helps, but the wide receivers must also contribute. The same can be said for the Irish when they have the ball, as they’ve relied heavily on QB Riley Leonard making the right reads on short throws and keepers. Speedy RB Jeremiyah Love tweaked a knee in the Georgia game but is expected to play. RB Jadarian Price can also help Leonard with ground support, but he’ll also need WRs Beaux Collins or Jordan Faison to stretch the field. The Nittany Lions might be without top pass rusher Abdul Carter, who suffered an apparent arm injury last week, but there are other playmakers like DB Jaylen Reed and LB Kobe King on that side of the ball for Leonard to be concerned about.

WHO WINS?: Does Notre Dame or Penn State prevail in Orange Bowl?

Why it could disappoint: Due to circumstances beyond its control, Notre Dame got one less day of rest than anticipated between the Sugar Bowl and this contest. That might or might not be a factor, but in any case this would appear to be a matchup in which points will be hard to come by, and a multi-score deficit either way will be hard to surmount.

The first team to 20 points could win the Orange Bowl and play for the national championship.

The other half of the College Football Playoff national semifinals has shootout potential. Ohio State has scored a combined 83 points through two playoff games and Texas has scored 78, with a little help from two overtimes in the Peach Bowl win against Arizona State.

Things between Penn State and Notre Dame should be a little slower, a little more plodding and a lot more reliant on the play of two elite defenses.

Penn State has allowed 24 points through two playoff games. Against Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, the Nittany Lions did what seemed to be impossible: contain All-America running back Ashton Jeanty. He finished with a season-low 104 rushing yards. Penn State’s defense also managed to score two touchdown in a dominant defeat of SMU in the first round.

Notre Dame held Indiana out of the end zone until two meaningless scores with minutes left in the fourth quarter and limited Georgia to just 62 rushing yards and 4.9 yards per play.

Look for these defenses to define the Orange Bowl. Here are the key factors that will determine which team goes on to play for the national championship:

Riley Leonard vs. Drew Allar

Neither has been outstanding in the playoff. Leonard completed 23 of 32 attempts for 201 yards against the Hoosiers but only 3.8 yards per attempt against Georgia, though he did run for a team-high 80 yards in the 23-10 win. Allar has been inaccurate, hitting on 27 of 50 attempts, but had three touchdowns without an interception against the Broncos.

The Nittany Lions have shown they can win when the passing game struggles to connect. But turnovers could be fatal: Penn State is 2-2 when Allar throws at least one interception, with the two wins coming by a combined 10 points against Bowling Green and Southern California.

Notre Dame trusts Leonard — the former Duke transfer has earned that with his toughness, leadership and grasp of the scheme — but the offense runs smoothest when he takes a back seat to the running game. The Fighting Irish are averaging 30.3 points per game when attempting 30 or more passes, an average inflated by a 52-point outburst against Florida State, and 39.9 points per game when making fewer than 30 attempts.

Which defense wins up front?

Penn State’s performance against Boise State showed the strength of what may be the Bowl Subdivision’s best run defense. That came against the Broncos’ offensive line, however; Notre Dame’s offensive front will present a different type of challenge.

But it’s clear that whichever team wins the battle on the line of scrimmage will win the Orange Bowl.

Penn State has allowed 1,513 rushing yards on 492 carries, or 3.1 yards per carry. Five opponents have cracked the 100-yard mark, led by Southern California’s 189 yards on 7.9 yards per carry — most of that damage came on a 75-yard scoring run in the first quarter. The Nittany Lions have held five teams under 75 yards on the ground.

Notre Dame has given up 1,791 yards on 3.6 yards per carry in one fewer game. Like the Nittany Lions, the Irish struggled against USC, allowing 197 yards and two scores, and gave up 190 yards in September’s shocking loss to Northern Illinois.

But Notre Dame’s numbers are also impacted by two games against service academies: Navy ran for 222 yards and Army for 207 yards, though they lost by a combined 72 points. And the Irish held the Black Knights nearly 100 yards below their FBS-best per-game average.

UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from college football bowl season

Who makes a big play downfield?

Neither team is adept at developing explosive plays in the passing game.

Penn State is tied for 86th nationally with 15 receptions of 30 or more yards and ranks 108th with just four gains of 40 or more yards. Notre Dame is even worse, at 130th with four passing plays of 30-plus yards and tied for 126th with one completion of 40-plus.

The Irish have overcome this lack of punch with one of the nation’s most explosive running games. They rank fourth nationally with 11 gains on the ground of 40 or more yards and are one of just eight teams in the FBS with a 90-yard gain.

In a game that will be played on the line of scrimmage, the ability to deliver one big gain downfield could change the complexion of the Orange Bowl, forcing the opposing defense to devote more resources to the back end and freeing things up inside the box.