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The composition of the top five sectors remains unchanged this week, despite an interrupted trading week. This stability comes against a backdrop of mixed signals and potential defensive rotation in the broader market. Let’s dive into the details and see how these sectors are holding up.

XLY, Consumer DiscretionaryXLC, Communication ServicesXLF, FinancialsXLK, Information TechnologyXLI, Industrials

Performance-wise, our equal-weight portfolio of these sectors is down 0.66% against SPY, which is down 0.44%. (Note: This analysis is based on data about an hour before market close on Friday, January 10th. Any significant shifts after this time will be addressed in a weekend update if necessary.)

Sector-by-Sector Analysis

Consumer Discretionary: Strong Despite Decline

Consumer Discretionary remains well above its breakout level, which took out the peak of 2021. As a result, the sector has some room to decline — say, back to the support area around 210 — without harming the uptrend.

This resilience keeps Consumer Discretionary in a very strong position despite the current price decline.

Communication Services: Promising but Precarious

The Communication Services sector is holding up from a relative perspective. While the relative strength line and RRG lines are still positive, the RS momentum line is stalling. This is causing the tail on the RRG to roll over, albeit still inside the leading quadrant.

The biggest concern for XLC comes from the price chart. After breaking out in November 2024, the sector is dropping back into the boundaries of its old rising channel.

In my experience, when price retreats into a rising channel after an upside breakout, it often tests the lower boundary.

For XLC, this could mean a drawback to around 90-92.5 — a support area marked by the rising support line of the old channel.

Financials: Breaking Down

XLF, after a few weeks of consolidation, now seems to be breaking a rising trend line.

It’s also close to taking out the previous low around 47.60. If we close below this level on the weekly chart, we’ll have a confirmed lower low and lower high in place for XLF — opening up the downside towards the first support level around 46.

Relative strength for XLF is dropping back below its previous resistance level, which should have acted as support but isn’t. This is causing the RRG lines to roll over, with XLF’s weekly tail close to crossing from leading into the weakening quadrant.

Technology: Stable but Facing Resistance

The technology sector has remained relatively stable, trading in a condensed area with high volatility over the last 2-3 months.

XLK hasn’t managed to break above the resistance just above 240, which is therefore becoming increasingly heavy. However, it’s still within its rising channel, with potential support of around 222.

XLK’s relative strength remains stable, slightly moving higher within its trading range, which is causing both RRG lines to move higher.

With RS ratio below 100 and RS momentum above 100, XLK’s tail is inside the improving quadrant with a positive heading — which continues to make it one of the better sectors.

Industrials: On the Edge

The industrial sector, still number 5 on our list, is testing the lower boundary of its rising channel. So far, it hasn’t broken down.

Relative strength is slowing down, continuing the trend from last week. The tail is still inside the weakening quadrant heading for lagging, but the price decline seems to be stalling at the current level.

Industrials is on the edge — a definitive break out of the rising channel would add to its weakness and lead to even weaker relative strength.

For now, though, it’s holding above support despite the loss of relative strength.

RRG Analysis: A Mixed Picture

It’s interesting to note that on the RRG for all sectors, our top five are located either in the leading quadrant (XLY, XLC, XLF), the weakening quadrant (XLI), or the improving quadrant (XLK).

All other sectors are inside the lagging quadrant, none with a positive heading.

This RRG isn’t the strongest I’ve ever seen, but it’s all a relative game — and that’s what this experiment is about.

We’re trying to beat the S&P 500, so we need to be in the sectors furthest to the right, preferably with a strong heading.

Daily RRG: Signs of Defensive Rotation

When we look at the daily RRG, the picture shifts.

While XLC, XLK, and XLY are still furthest to the right (albeit without the strongest headings), XLI and XLF are inside the improving quadrant, rapidly heading towards leading.

A quick analysis of other sectors shows Utilities (XLU), Health Care (XLV), and Energy (XLE) rapidly approaching the leading quadrant — indicating a more defensive rotation in the near term.

What’s Next?

The daily RRG’s defensive rotation is translating into a weaker chart for SPY. I’ll be creating a separate article focusing more on the development in the S&P 500 to keep it distinct from this “Best 5 Sectors” series. Be on the lookout for that additional analysis shortly.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend. –Julius

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — The hype that traveled with James Franklin to Penn State when he was hired a decade ago could be described in four words: He won at Vanderbilt.

That raised expectations around the Nittany Lions to meteoric heights, seemingly placing the program on a collision course for Big Ten and national championships. The Nittany Lions have won a single conference crown; the national championship continues to prove elusive.

Missed chances, missed opportunities, misfires in top-five matchups — deservedly or not, that’s been the Nittany Lions’ defining trait under Franklin. That makes losing 27-24 to Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff semifinals at the Orange Bowl feel painfully familiar: Penn State is close, but the program’s glass ceiling remains unbroken.

“Everything we did together,” said junior linebacker Kobe King. “All the success, we had together. All the failures, we learn from. But it’s heartbreaking. It’s definitely something for the guys to look forward to next year, and some guys to put on their shoulders as a chip to learn from and to overcome.”

This loss breathes more life into the image of the Nittany Lions as their own worst enemy.

Penn State led 10-0 late in the second quarter and had a chance to keep Notre Dame off the board. But the defense failed to fall on a fumble, allowing the Irish to get on the board with a field goal. After dominating the first half, the running game essentially disappeared in the second. The Nittany Lions led 24-17 with just under eight minutes to play but allowed the Irish to tie the game on a breakdown in the secondary.

But no play will define the loss — and the team’s entire season — more than a crucial, game-breaking interception from quarterback Drew Allar with 33 seconds remaining.

“We just know we’ve got his back,” said All-America tight end Tyler Warren. “He knows that, too. That’s how we go about it, man.”

There’s no way to second-guess the decision to push the tempo in an effort to win the game in regulation, especially as overtime games have become an even bigger crapshoot with the rule change that forces each team to alternate two-point conversions beginning in the third extra frame.

“We’ve embraced playing to win,” said offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki. “We get a good run to start that drive and hurry up and go tempo and end up turning it over, which ended up being costly. That’s what you’ve got to do. You play to win.”

But after running back Nick Singleton’s 13-yard run moved Penn State to the 28-yard line, Allar dropped back to pass and rolled to his left to buy time. He then committed one of the cardinal sins of quarterbacking: He threw across his body, aimed toward junior wide receiver Omari Evans. The attempt was intercepted by Notre Dame defensive back Christian Gray.

Allar could’ve thrown the ball into the first row, or even continued to scramble his way across the sideline. Either decision might have cost Penn State momentum. At worst, though, the safer play would have left the Nittany Lions in position to force overtime.

“I was going through my progressions,” Allar said. “Got to the backside and honestly, I was just trying to go to Omari’s feet. I should have just thrown it away when I thought the first two progressions aren’t open just because of the situation we were in.”

After three offensive snaps moved the Irish to the 25-yard line, quarterback Riley Leonard moved the ball toward the right hashmark to set up kicker Mitch Jeter’s 41-yard field goal with 10 seconds to play.

“He’s hurting right now, right? He should be hurting. We’re all hurting,” Franklin said of Allar. “This ain’t easy, to get in here after a game and have a conversation after you’ve just poured your guts out on the field. He’ll handle it great.

“He’ll be hurting tonight and tomorrow. He’ll hurt a little bit less the next day and so on and so forth. But he’s a committed guy who’s going to do it the right way. He’ll learn from this and be better for it, and so will we.”

Said Kotelnicki, “That’s tough, right? Because he’s going to put that on himself, and he shouldn’t have to.

“I simply say to him, ‘It ain’t you. It’s not on you to take that on your shoulders and feel that blame for that.’ Because we will win and we will lose as a group, as a football team. It’s never one play. Everyone is going to point the finger at that one. But I say, ‘I love you.’ Because I do.”

After taking a step forward in the regular season as a second-year starter, Allar struggled during the playoff, taking a back seat to the Nittany Lions’ running game in wins against Indiana and Boise State and again against the Irish.

He went 13 of 22 for 127 yards against the Hoosiers, tying his season low with 5.8 yards per attempt, and then completed 13 of 25 throws for 171 yards against the Broncos, though he did have three touchdowns without an interception. Allar was 12 of 23 for 135 yards against the Irish and was very ineffective downfield, completing just six of the 14 attempts that traveled more than five yards beyond the line of scrimmage.

Overall, the Nittany Lions failed to complete a single pass to their wide receivers.

“We tried a couple early on in the game but weren’t able to convert them,” Franklin said. “Yeah, that’s a storyline of the game. That’s one of the storylines, I don’t think there’s any doubt about it. We had some throws and some contested balls that we didn’t come down with.”

The interception threatens to define Allar’s college career — it’s a moment that will linger in program history for the wrong reasons, and only grow painfully in magnitude should the Irish beat Ohio State or Texas in the championship game.

He’s already committed to coming back in 2025, saying in a social-media post last month that “there’s still more work to do, which is why I look forward to making more memories with my teammates this year and beyond.”

First, Allar will have to move past this moment. How he does so, or whether he does so at all, will play a huge role in deciding whether Penn State is poised to finally break through in 2025.

“Drew is a passionate guy,” Franklin said. “He invests so much into his development and also to his teammates, to Penn State. He’ll handle this like he handles everything else, with a first-class approach and with an investment level that’s as good as anybody in the country. His growth from a year-one starter to a year-two starter was significant. He has a chance to take another step next year.”

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Lionel Messi and Inter Miami will play exhibitions in Peru, Panama and Honduras next month, rounding out a five-match preseason tour that begins in Las Vegas and ends in Tampa, Florida ahead of the 2025 MLS season.

Inter Miami’s ‘The Americans Preseason Tour’ begins in Las Vegas when Inter Miami plays Mexican champions Club America at Allegiant Stadium on Jan. 18.

Inter Miami will face Peruvian side Club Universitario de Deportes, the country’s first division back-to-back champions, at Estadio Monumental in Lima, Peru on Jan. 29.

Four days later, Inter Miami will face Sporting San Miguelito at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez in Panama City, Panama on Feb. 2.

MESSI SCHEDULE: Where will Messi play in 2025?

Inter Miami will face Honduran giants Club Deportivo Olimpia at the Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula, Honduras on Feb. 8

And the preseason comes to an end when Inter Miami faces its in-state MLS rival Orlando City at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 14.

The five-match preseason lasting a month is a lighter load than Inter Miami’s worldwide preseason tour last year, when the club played six games in El Salvador, Dallas, Saudi Arabia, Hong Kong and Tokyo in a span of three weeks.

Still, Inter Miami’s 2025 tour will see Messi draw fans in North, Central and South America, continuing to promote the MLS club to an international audience while preparing for an action-packed season.

Messi and Inter Miami will play in the Champions Cup, the Club World Cup, and the Leagues Cup tournaments in 2025, while defending their Supporters’ Shield title and contending for another postseason berth in the MLS Cup playoffs next year.

‘We’re very excited to unveil the five matches against domestic and international opponents across the Americas that will prepare us for a highly anticipated 2025,’ Inter Miami’s president of football operations Raúl Sanllehí said in a statement.

‘These fixtures will put us in the best possible position ahead of an unparalleled campaign with various competitions we’re playing for this year – the FIFA Club World Cup, Concacaf Champions Cup, Leagues Cup and MLS.’

Messi won MLS MVP in 2024, helping Inter Miami win the regular-season title and set the MLS single-season points record (74) before the club’s first-round playoff exit to Atlanta United.

The club will also have a new coach in 2025, after Messi’s longtime teammate Javier Mascherano was hired to replace Tata Martino, who resigned following last season.

Inter Miami will begin the first round of the Concacaf Champions Cup with the first of two games against Sporting Kansas City at Children’s Mercy Park on Feb. 18 at 8 p.m. ET.

Inter Miami will host New York City FC on Feb. 22 in their MLS season opener, then host Sporting KC in the second leg of their first-round Champions Cup matchup on Feb. 25. Both matches will be played at Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

Messi, Inter Miami upcoming schedule

Jan. 18: Inter Miami vs. Club América, Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, 10 p.m. ET (preseason)
Jan. 29: Club Universitario de Deportes vs. Inter Miami, Estadio Monumental in Lima Peru, 8 p.m. ET
Feb. 2: Sporting San Miguelito vs. Inter Miami, Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez in Panama City, 5 p.m. ET
Feb. 8: Club Deportivo Olimpia vs. Inter Miami, Estadio Olimpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula, Honduras, 8 p.m. ET (preseason)
Feb. 14: Inter Miami vs. Orlando City, Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, 7:30 p.m. (preseason)
Feb. 18: Sporting Kansas City vs. Inter Miami, Children’s Mercy Park in Kansas City, 8 p.m. ET (Concacaf Champions Cup)
Feb. 22: Inter Miami vs. New York City FC, Chase Stadium in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., 2:30 p.m. (MLS regular season opener)
Feb. 25: Inter Miami vs. Sporting Kansas City, Chase Stadium, 8 p.m. ET (Concacaf Champions Cup)

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — Notre Dame took advantage of a crucial Penn State turnover with under a minute left and made the game-winning field goal with seven seconds remaining to pull out a 27-24 win in the Orange Bowl and earn a spot in the College Football Playoff championship game.

Penn State quarterback Drew Allar was intercepted in Penn State territory with 33 seconds to play, leading to a 41-yard field goal by Notre Dame kicker Mitch Jeter. The Fighting Irish will meet the Cotton Bowl winner between Texas and Ohio State on Monday, Jan. 20, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Down 10-0 with two minutes left in the second quarter and 24-17 with just under eight minutes to play, Notre Dame answered with a surprisingly explosive passing game, including a game-changing touchdown pass of 54 yards to wide receiver Jaden Greathouse to even the game at 24-24 with 4:38 remaining.

A game of runs — Penn State scored the first 10 points and Notre Dame the next 17 points — came down to which quarterback made the critical mistake. That was Allar, who had turned his game around in the fourth quarter but made a costly decision on a rollout on the Nittany Lions’ penultimate possession.

The Nittany Lions were held to 63 rushing yards in the second half after going for 141 yards in the first half, which more than the Irish had allowed combined in playoff wins against Indiana and Georgia.

Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard went 15 of 23 for 223 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, with another 35 yards on the ground. The senior briefly left the game after being driven to the ground by two Penn State defenders on Notre Dame’s final possession of the first half. He was replaced by backup Steve Angeli but returned to the start the third quarter.

Robbed off his normal explosiveness due to a knee injury, running back Jeremiyah Love still managed a team-high 45 yards. Aneyas Williams had 83 yards of total offense. Greathouse led all players with 105 receiving yards.

Penn State’s Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 166 yards on 34 carries, with Singleton accounting for all three of the team’s touchdowns.

All-America tight end Ty Warren had 75 receiving yards and 21 yards on the ground for the Nittany Lions. Allar started slowly and finished with 135 passing yards and the one costly turnover.

After the first scoreless first quarter in the Orange Bowl since Louisville and Wake Forest in 2007, the Nittany Lions got on the board with a short field goal to open the second quarter. Later, Penn State went 90 yards in 15 plays across more than seven minutes, capped by a Singleton touchdown run, to take a 10-0 lead with 2:18 remaining in the quarter.

Angeli took over for Leonard near midfield and drove the Irish in range for a 41-yard field goal by kicker Mitch Jeter as time expired to make it 10-3 at the break.

With Leonard back under center, Notre Dame’s offense responded with a 75-yard touchdown drive to open the second half keyed by a 36-yard completion to Williams. The Irish had three completions of 30 or more yards after having just nine on the season heading into Thursday night.

Notre Dame went ahead 17-10 on a Love touchdown run from two yards out less than a minute into the fourth quarter. Hit behind the line of scrimmage, Love wriggled away from multiple tacklers and dragged another Penn State defender into the end zone.

Penn State tied the score on the ensuing possession, retaking momentum with a 75-yard drive lasting 3:45 and ending with a 7-yard touchdown by Singleton. Allar completed all three of his attempts and 57 yards of total offense on the scoring drive.

Leonard’s interception on the first play of the next drive put Penn State in position to retake the lead on another Singleton score with 7:55 to play. The drive included a key pass-interference penalty on Notre Dame that negated an Allar interception.

Again, Notre Dame had the answer. Greathouse broken open on the right sideline when Penn State defensive back slipped in coverage. Greathouse made one potential tackler miss on his way to the end zone.

After tackling Allar short of a first down on a third-down scramble, Notre Dame took over at its 24-yard line with 2:34 to play. Boosted by a 15-yard hands-to-the-face penalty against Nittany Lions defensive lineman Zane Durant, the Irish were able to inch toward makeable field-goal range but were stopped on a Penn State sack with under a minute to go.

The Nittany Lions regained possession at the 15-yard line with 47 seconds to play. But Allar made the game’s biggest mistake: On second down on the 28-yard line, Allar rolled to his left, threw across his body and was intercepted by Christian Gray at the 42-yard line with 33 seconds left.

Leonard found Greathouse again to convert on third down and push the Irish down to the 25-yard line. Leonard then kneeled twice to get the Irish into the middle of the field and set up Jeter’s game-winning field goal.

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S&P 500 earnings are in for 2024 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through September 2025. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of December 31, 2024. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E remains outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2025 Q3.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still well above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up and are projected to trend higher for the next four quarters. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

(c) Copyright 2025 DecisionPoint.com

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Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — You’ve never getting them in a conference now. 

No matter what happens with Notre Dame’s magical College Football Playoff run, no matter where the improbable ride ends, this Irish team will go down as the one that secured the university’s beloved independent model. 

If Notre Dame’s thrilling, last-second 27-24 victory Thursday over Penn State in the CFP Orange Bowl semifinal wasn’t enough, consider the reward for advancing to the national championship game: $20 million.

Notre Dame, everyone, is playing with house money with one game remaining in the CFP. 

“We have the pieces in place now,” Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua told USA TODAY Sports late Thursday night outside a wild Irish locker room. “We have a long-term (media rights) deal with NBC, and it’s no secret that the playoff expansion to 12 teams helps us. We feel good about where we are moving forward.”

Just how good? It doesn’t matter who the Irish play from the Cotton Bowl semifinal – Ohio State or Texas – or if it ends in another national title for the storied program, it has no impact on the most important takeaway from this postseason run. 

Notre Dame proved it could do what was, at best, a dream scenario of having its NBC cake and eating College Football Playoff pie, too. The shifting landscape of college football seemingly had Notre Dame in a no-win situation: stay independent and trail the Big Ten and SEC in revenue generation, or believe in the concept of finding the right coach and plan and reach every possible goal on the field.

And bank a load of cash in the process.

It was earlier this week when Penn State coach James Franklin said “everybody should be in a conference” — a direct shot at Notre Dame and its longstanding independent status.

But while college football moved forward this season with an expansion (and contraction) that left the Power Four with three 16-team conferences and one 18-team conference, Notre Dame stood its ground. 

Now we know why. 

The win over Penn State generated a $6 million payout for Notre Dame from the CFP. The breakdown of the complete Irish postseason haul: 

— $4 million for qualifying for the CFP. 

— $4 million for reaching the quarterfinals. 

— $6 million for reaching the semifinals.

— $6 million for reaching the final. 

So when cornerback Christian Gray intercepted an errant throw from Penn State quarterback Drew Allar at the Penn State 42 with less than a minute to play to set up the eventual game-winning 41-yard field goal from Mitch Jeter, Notre Dame had its statement game as a strong, healthy independent.

And a mega payout.  

Notre Dame’s television deal with NBC is estimated to be worth $50 million annually. The CFP payout of $20 million moves Notre Dame to $70 million annually, nearly identical to the high-rent financial neighborhoods of SEC and Big Ten teams.

Bowl Subdivision teams who play in conferences must share their CFP payouts with their conference, and SEC and Big Ten teams will earn an estimated $70 million each. 

If Notre Dame had joined either of those conferences, it would’ve had to share its NBC contract, and College Football Playoff proceeds — or likely eliminate the NBC deal altogether. Now the Irish are standing tall and alone once again in the college football landscape. 

The bonus: they’re one win away from their first national title since 1988.

“These guys are just built different,” said Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman. “This place is so special.”

Not long after the game, after they sang the Notre Dame fight song and celebrated beating another top five team in the CFP, Irish defensive coordinator Al Golden stood outside the locker room and tried to explain what just happened. 

This unthinkable season, which seemed lost in September with a home loss to Northern Illinois, now has the feel of destiny. Somehow, some way, Notre Dame was beaten up by Penn State in the first half, and found a way to trail by only seven. 

Somehow, some way, after Penn State scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to take a 24-17 lead, the Irish found a way again. Whether it was the gutty play of quarterback Riley Leonard – briefly knocked out of the game late in the first half and was checked for a concussion – or the dynamic ability of forgotten wideout Jaden Greathouse.

Or a defense that kept getting big stops, including an interception by cornerback Christian Gray that set up the game-winning drive. The ball nearly slipped out of Gray’s hands as he went to the ground, but he carefully scooped and tucked it in.

Golden called a different defensive front and stunt on the interception, and a different coverage. 

“Didn’t play it all game.” he said. “I don’t want to say what it was, but we had to keep them guessing. We needed a stop, a big play. You make the call, feel good about it. We get the pressure, and Christian just makes an unbelievable play. We find a way. It’s happened over and over this season.”

Now there’s one game left, one last dance with a group of players who haven’t buckled in a win or walk scenario since the Week 2 loss to Northern Illinois. Because Notre Dame doesn’t play in a conference, it doesn’t play in a conference championship game to get an extra data point for the CFP selection committee.

Another loss this season would’ve likely been fatal to its CFP hopes. Instead, the Irish are one win from first national title since beating West Virginia in the 1989 Fiesta Bowl at the end of the 1988 season — since before the explosion of cable television’s impact on the sport. Before the CFP and the Bowl Championship Series and the Bowl Coalition and Bowl Alliance.

All the way back to the days of backroom postseason deals, when schools and conferences and bowls made decisions based on their best interests. And only after the games was a mythical national champion declared by an alphabet soup of news services.

A win against Ohio State or Texas in the national championship game would be the final step in the season of the unthinkable. But the biggest win, the biggest statement, arrived in the Orange Bowl. 

“This has been a wonderful run,” Bevacqua said. “We have the history, the tradition, and our independence. And we feel we have the best coach in college football.” 

You’re never getting them in a conference now.

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Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

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Ohio State is the lowest seed remaining in the College Football Playoff, but you’d be hard-pressed to find a significant amount of people that didn’t have the Buckeyes as the favorites to win the national championship in Atlanta on Jan. 20. That’s because Ohio State have rolled through Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon in consecutive matchups with its offense dominating two of the better defenses in the country.

The task of stopping the Buckeyes in the Cotton Bowl semifinal is Texas. The Longhorns appeared to be cruising to a defeat of Arizona State in the Peach Bowl quarterfinal before a fourth-quarter stumble led to a dramatic overtime victory. With questions on offense, Texas will need to find a way to generate points to keep pace with Ohio State.

In addition to reaching the national championship game, there are also bragging rights at stake with the Buckeyes of the Big Ten facing the Longhorns of the SEC. One conference will be able to puff out its chest at the end of the game. So who wins? Our experts make their picks.

Scooby Axson

If Ohio State gets its offense rolling, it will be up to Texas and Quinn Ewers to keep up and match the Buckeyes score for score. The problem is that the Longhorns have shown a tendency to stall on offense and to blow leads, which can turn a possible comfortable victory into having to make plays down the stretch. The $20 million train rolls along, and the Michigan debacle looks and feels more like a distant memory than anything. Ohio State 34, Texas 21.

DRAFT-READY: Ohio State freshman could be one to test NFL rule

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Jordan Mendoza

Ohio State has by far looked like a national championship winning team. But what’s been the key for the Buckeyes have been the blazing hot starts that has made a comeback seem impossible. The Texas defense, after a shaky second half against Arizona State, can’t fall behind early if it wants to move onto the national title. The unit is unable to contain Jeremiah Smith and company the Buckeyes punch their ticket to Atlanta. Ohio State 31, Texas 20.

Paul Myerberg

Ohio State won’t be stopped. Texas will need to play its best game of the year (or maybe the decade, if not the generation) to upend the mighty Buckeyes. While Quinn Ewers played well late in the Peach Bowl, the Longhorns’ general lack of consistency on offense will eventually help OSU pull away and score another double-digit win. Ohio State 38, Texas 27.

Erick Smith

In the postseason, sometimes pregame expectations are met and momentum carries through to the next round. The vast majority of people anticipate Ohio State continuing its playoff domination against Texas. But what if the Longhorns might be benefiting from overconfidence from the Buckeyes? That’s certainly a possibility given the way the quarterfinals went for both teams. It’ll take a huge effort from quarterback Quinn Ewers and the Texas offense to pull off the upset. It probably won’t happen. Just don’t be surprised if this game is closer than you think. Ohio State 28, Texas 24.

Eddie Timanus

Texas is going to have to be just about perfect to hang with the Buckeyes – and it won’t be. The Longhorns will get points, but not nearly enough. A first-half interception will allow Ohio State to build a multiple-score lead it won’t relinquish. Ohio State 45, Texas 24.

Dan Wolken

If the Buckeyes’ offense keeps operating at the level it has produced for the first two CFP games, this one won’t be close. Sometimes it’s like pulling teeth to get explosive plays out of Texas’ offense, and they will need more than a few in this game to keep pace. The Longhorns’ defense has been good all season, but there were some serious cracks in the quarterfinals against Arizona State and the level of perimeter skill they have to account for in this game is unlike anything they’ve seen all year. Ohio State deserves to be the favorite here. Ohio State 38, Texas 17.

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The NFL didn’t wait any longer for what was trending toward an inevitable decision.

The league announced Thursday evening that – ‘(i)n the interest of public safety’ – Monday night’s wild-card game between the Los Angeles Rams and Minnesota Vikings, which was scheduled to be played at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, will be moved to Arizona due to the wildfires that continue to rage through the greater Los Angeles area.

‘The decision was made in consultation with public officials, the participating clubs and the NFLPA,’ the league also revealed in a statement.

‘The game will be televised on ESPN, ABC, ESPN+ and ESPN Deportes at its scheduled 8:00 p.m. ET time. Tickets will go on sale at 10 a.m. PT Friday morning through Seatgeek.com for Rams Season Ticket Members and Noon PT to the general public. More information on ticket sales will be provided as soon as possible.’

The game will now be played at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, the Arizona Cardinals’ home.

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The Rams had signaled to their fans earlier Thursday continued plans to play at SoFi, but those intentions were superseded by ongoing safety and logistical issues in Southern California, not to mention the outbreak of another fire near the team’s practice facility in Woodland Hills. Proximity to that blaze prompted the Rams to send their players home early.

At least five fires were active in Los Angeles County, devastating more than 40 square miles across the region, according to Cal Fire. Tens of thousands of Los Angeles County residents have been forced to evacuate their homes.

‘Every time we suit up, we’re the Los Angeles Rams. We play for the people in this community, the people that support us, and this week will be another example of that,” quarterback Matthew Stafford said Thursday prior to the announcement.

“Hopefully it’ll be a great escape for people who’ve been going through a lot of tough times here the last couple days.”

Prior to Thursday, no NFL playoff game had ever been relocated during the Super Bowl era, which dates to 1966. The league did pull Super Bowl 27, which was the capstone of the 1992 season, out of Arizona when the state refused to make Martin Luther King Day a holiday in 1990. The game was finally played in Tempe, Arizona, in 1996.

However this is not the first time the NFL has moved a Monday night contest from Southern California due to wildfires. A matchup between the San Diego Chargers and Miami Dolphins in 2003 had to be shifted to Tempe. The displaced Chargers lost 26-10.

The Bolts, who relocated from San Diego to LA in 2017, have also experienced disruption ahead of their wild-card game Saturday in Houston against the AFC South champion Texans. The Chargers altered their practice schedule Wednesday due to air quality issues and wound up flying to Texas on Thursday afternoon.

This story has been updated with new information.

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

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The New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Jacksonville Jaguars will be part of the International Series, the NFL announced Friday.

The Jets and Browns will play different opponents at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium as the home team, while the Jaguars will have their home game at Wembley Stadium. It will be Jacksonville’s 14th season playing in London.

The league, which can schedule up to eight league-operated regular-season games internationally, will also have teams play next season in Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, and at Olympic Stadium in Berlin.

The NFL official schedule release with the kickoff dates and times will be revealed in the spring.

For the Jets, next year’s game in London will be their fifth international game, while the Browns have played in one regular-season game in London.

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The Jets lost to the Minnesota Vikings 23-17 last season in London, and the Browns’ one game in London also resulted in a loss to the Vikings, 33-16, in 2017.

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President-elect Donald Trump issued a warning ahead of the inauguration of contested Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who took up the top job for a third term on Friday. 

Despite significant opposition both at home and abroad to the July election in which Maduro claimed victory without providing ballot-box proof, the Venezuelan leader, deemed a ‘dictator’ by American lawmakers, is now set to hold office until 2031.

On Thursday, opposition leader María Corina Machado emerged from months of hiding to join hundreds of anti-Maduro protesters in the capital city of Caracas and demand that opposition candidate Edmundo González be sworn in instead.

Machado was briefly detained by government security forces after they ‘violently intercepted’ her convoy as she attempted to leave the protests, the Associated Press reported.

Trump took to social media to demand she remain ‘safe and alive.’

‘Venezuelan democracy activist Maria Corina Machado and President-elect Gonzalez are peacefully expressing the voices and the will of the Venezuelan people with hundreds of thousands of people demonstrating against the regime,’ he wrote. ‘These freedom fighters should not be harmed, and must stay safe and alive.’

The opposition figure was apparently forced to record several videos before she was released, though the details of those recordings remain unclear. 

Maduro’s supporters have reportedly denied that Machado was arrested.

On Friday, the Biden administration backed the efforts by the opposition leaders and, according to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, ‘President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia should be sworn in, and the democratic transition should begin.

‘Today, Nicolás Maduro held an illegitimate presidential inauguration in Venezuela in a desperate attempt to seize power. The Venezuelan people and world know the truth – Maduro clearly lost the 2024 presidential election and has no right to claim the presidency,’ the secretary said in a statement. ‘The United States rejects the National Electoral Council’s fraudulent announcement that Maduro won the presidential election and does not recognize Nicolás Maduro as the president of Venezuela. 

‘We stand ready to support a return to democracy in Venezuela,’ Blinken added. 

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) on Friday slapped a new round of sanctions on the Maduro regime, this time targeting ‘officials who lead key economic and security agencies enabling Nicolás Maduro’s repression and subversion of democracy in Venezuela.’

Eight officials were named in the sanctions, including the recently appointed head of Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, Hector Obregon, as well as the nation’s transportation minister, Ramon Velasquez, according to a statement by the department.

‘In addition, OFAC is sanctioning high-level Venezuelan officials in the military and police who lead entities with roles in carrying out Maduro’s repression and human rights abuses against democratic actors,’ the statement said. 

Maduro was also once again targeted by Washington’s sanctions, and the reward for information leading to his arrest or conviction was increased to $25 million.

The same amount was offered up for the Venezuelan Minister of Interior, Justice, and Peace, Diosdado Cabello, along with a $15 million reward for Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino. 

Members of the military and police were also named in the sanctions. 

Blinken confirmed on Friday that some 2,000 Maduro-aligned individuals have had visa-restrictions imposed on them.

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