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Nearly all of the Power Conference women’s basketball programs have finished their conference tournaments, meaning all there is left to wait for is Selection Sunday.

A number of mid-major programs still have to conclude their conference tournaments, however, with a slew of teams hoping for limited bid stealers to keep their position on the bubble.

South Carolina and UCLA all but locked up No. 1 seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament with SEC and Big Ten conference tournament wins, respectively, as the Gamecocks dominated Texas and the Bruins completed a comeback win over USC.

The Longhorns and Trojans should also receive strong consideration for the other two No. 1 seeds of the tournament, with UConn also competing for a No. 1 seed.

Here are the latest March Madness predictions for the women’s NCAA Tournament:

Women’s March Madness predictions

Last four in

Iowa State
Princeton
Harvard
Washington

First four out

Virginia Tech
Saint Joseph’s
Arizona
Minnesota

No. 1 seeds

South Carolina
UCLA
Texas
USC

No. 2 seeds

UConn
TCU
Notre Dame
LSU

No. 3 seeds

NC State
Duke
Kentucky
Oklahoma

No. 4 seeds

Ohio State
Baylor
Ole Miss
North Carolina

No. 5 seeds

Alabama
Maryland
Kansas State
Tennessee

No. 6 seeds

West Virginia
Michigan State
Iowa
Oklahoma State

No. 7 seeds

Louisville
Michigan
Vanderbilt
Florida State

No. 8 seeds

Creighton
Utah
Illinois
South Dakota State

No. 9 seeds

Richmond
Mississippi State
Georgia Tech
Cal

No. 10 seeds

Indiana
Nebraska
Oregon
Iowa State/Princeton

No. 11 seeds

James Madison
Washington/Harvard
Columbia
UNLV

No. 12 seeds

Florida Gulf Coast
George Mason
Fairfield
Grand Canyon

No. 13 seeds

Green Bay
UTSA
Missouri State
Ball State

No. 14 seeds

Liberty
Gonzaga
Norfolk State
Montana State

No. 15 seeds

Lehigh
Southeastern Louisiana
Albany
Tennessee Tech

No. 16 seeds

Southern/NC A&T
Fairleigh Dickinson
UNC-Greenville/High Point
Hawaii

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Amid the hustle and bustle of NFL free agency, San Francisco 49ers’ star running back Christian McCaffrey announced a new addition to his team. Wife Olivia Culpo revealed via Instagram that she was pregnant with the couple’s first child.

The post was met with tons of congratulatory messages from other women in the sports world.

‘Omg congrats. So happy for you guys,’ commented Olympic champion skier Lindsey Vonn.

‘Congratulations,’ wrote NFL reporter Charissa Thompson. 

Culpo didn’t stop there, though, and also posted a reel of the couple celebrating her pregnancy together.

When did McCaffrey and Culpo start dating?

McCaffrey and Culpo have been together since 2019. McCaffrey was still a member of the Carolina Panthers at that time. They got engaged in April 2023 and married on June 29, 2024.

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As the legal tampering period in the NFL kicked off, many fans were left in the dark as technical issues run rampant on X, formerly known as Twitter.

On Monday morning, the popular social media website that many people use to get their news was littered with functionality problems. Although the website has recently started updating properly, there was a not-so-brief period of time where fans were unsure what was going on in the NFL world.

With so many free agency deals going down over the last week, fans were left biting their nails, wondering if they’d missed a massive move amidst the outages. Some pundits even turned to other platforms like BlueSky or Threads in order to keep people informed.

The issues started being noticed by users at 9:45 a.m. ET. Since then, deals like Jimmy Garoppolo re-signing with the Los Angeles Rams, Chris Godwin re-signing with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jaylon Moore joining the Kansas City Chiefs, and many more all went down with fans unable to confirm or even load updates to catch the news themselves.

Is X still down?

As of approximately 12:30 p.m. ET, the website stopped experiencing outages.

Social media reacts to outages

How long does NFL free agency’s legal tampering period last?

The legal tampering period doesn’t last long, with contracts officially capable of being signed when the new league year begins on Wednesday, March 12 at 4 p.m. ET.

The USA TODAY app gets you to the heart of the news — fast.Download for award-winning coverage, crosswords, audio storytelling, the eNewspaper and more.

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The NFL never stops.

Free agency technically begins Monday. But before the clock strikes noon ET, starting the proverbial ‘legal tampering window,’ the offseason has already featured a litany of consequential trades, demands, requests, signings and much more.

With this much movement and news already, it’s time to declare some pre-free agency winners and losers from the month-old offseason.

Hint: the guys who got paid and their respective teams are obvious winners. Teams who stood pat or neglected to pay their big names (looking at you, Cincinnati) are warranted losers. But it’s a bit deeper than that. Let’s dive into it.

WINNERS

Myles Garrett (and Micah Parsons and T.J. Watt)

The final game of the 2024 season hadn’t even been played when Garrett released a statement requesting a trade and said he wished to compete for a Super Bowl. But money is nice too. On Sunday, Garrett started a busy day of big-money news by agreeing to a four-year, $160 million extension with the Cleveland Browns. The contract includes $123.5 million in guaranteed money, making Garrett the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL.

Meanwhile, the edge rushers who will be seeking new deals salivated at Sunday’s news. That would be namely Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ T.J. Watt. A Parsons extension could come the pike at any time – although this current iteration of ‘America’s Team’ is content to play out the string, much to their detriment – while Watt’s next payday figures to come next year. Parsons took to social media to declare his disbelief in the Garrett contract details. He and Watt will have Garrett to thank for their inflated bank accounts.

Wide receivers who wanted out from their former team

It was a good March for wideouts who sought greener pastures. First, the San Francisco 49ers honored Deebo Samuel’s trade request and sent him to the Washington Commanders last Saturday. DK Metcalf then requested the Seattle Seahawks trade him and they did Sunday to the Pittsburgh Steelers, who gave the two-time Pro Bowl receiver a four-year extension.

Davante Adams’ future with the New York Jets was essentially sealed the moment a reunion between ‘Gang Green’ and quarterback Aaron Rodgers went south – as in, he too would not be back. The Jets released him Tuesday and he signed a two-year deal worth $46 million with the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday to team up with a different veteran quarterback who has a Super Bowl pedigree in Matthew Stafford.

Whether a more-verdant future awaits each is debatable for different reasons, but they all accomplished task No. 1 – getting out.

Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills

A Most Valuable Player trophy and a new contract that makes him the highest-paid player in the league currently. Not a bad offseason for Mr. Allen, who now has $250 million guaranteed to him over the next six years and the potential for $330 million, which if paid in full, would be a $55 million average annual salary. It’s the largest guarantee in NFL history.

The Bills clearly have received the memo that scared money don’t make money. Beyond their quarterback, they invested in four-year extensions for wide receiver Khalil Shakir ($32 million guaranteed), linebacker Terrel Bernard ($25.2 million guaranteed) and defensive end Gregory Rousseau ($54 million guaranteed).

Saquon Barkley

Barkley rushed for 2,000 yards in his first season with ‘The Birds’ on their way to a Super Bowl 59 victory. Philadelphia rewarded him with a two-year extension worth $41.2 million in new money – $36 million guaranteed at signing – and $15 million more available in incentives. The deal makes him the highest-paid running back in NFL history and the first to make at least $20 million in a season.

Eagles general manager Howie Roseman (and the man cutting the checks, Jeffrey Lurie) know the value of staying ahead of the curve and rewarding players early in their deals to create future flexibility – and, say, keep a Super-Bowl window open that much wider and longer. Team brass also brought back All-Pro linebacker Zack Baun on a three-year, $51 million deal ($34 million guaranteed).

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams opted not to take a spin on quarterback roulette with somebody like Sam Darnold or Aaron Rodgers and instead hashed things out with Matthew Stafford, whom they ceded permission to seek a trade. Nothing materialized, and Stafford – with two years remaining on his current deal – returned to the fold on a restructured contract that will be hammered out once free agency opens, per reports.

Next they essentially replaced Cooper Kupp (who has yet to be traded but whose return seems unlikely) with Adams, who figures to fit nicely into Sean McVay’s scheme given his production from the slot over the years.

Stafford’s blind-side protector and Rams left tackle Alaric Jackson is also back on a three-year, $57 million deal, with $35 million guaranteed.

Las Vegas Raiders

In one of the odder moves over the past month, the Raiders addressed their need at quarterback by reuniting new head coach Pete Carroll with former Seattle Seahawks signal-caller Geno Smith. The deal sent a 2025 third-round draft pick back to Seattle

Defensive end Maxx Crosby, not immune to trade speculation due to the team’s losing ways, became the richest non-quarterback (in terms of annual average salary) for a few days with a three-year extension worth $106.5 million ($91.5 million guaranteed) before Garrett unseated him atop the list.

Caleb Williams

Ryan Poles, a former offensive linemen, knew last year’s effort from the Chicago Bears’ offensive line could not continue if quarterback Caleb Williams – last year’s No. 1 pick – were to take a step forward in Year 2 under new head coach Ben Johnson. Enter Jonah Jackson (acquired in a trade with the Rams) and Joe Thuney (acquired in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs). Poles parted with a sixth- and fourth-round pick, respectively, for the two veteran interior linemen. On Monday, the Bears further fortified that interior by signing former Atlanta Falcons center Drew Dalman to a three-year, $42 million deal with $28 million guaranteed.

The NFL

Kings stay kings. No subpar games to throw on midweek? No prospect showcase to completely blow out of the water? No problem. It doesn’t matter if it’s the holidays, daylight savings or a random week in July – the NFL captivates this nation’s attention unlike any other entity, for better or worse.

LOSERS

Cincinnati Bengals

Cincinnati director of player personnel executive Duke Tobin (the organization’s de facto general manager) stood behind a podium at the combine in Indianapolis and declared the Bengals’ intention to make wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase the highest-paid non-quarterback in the NFL. Then he watched another Ohio team make good on that goal with Garrett earning that distinction with the Browns. Trey Hendrickson has been arguably the most consistent pass rusher over the past two seasons with back-to-back 17.5-sack seasons. Yet Cincinnati granted him permission to seek a trade. Tobin said he wanted a long-term deal for another stud wideout, Tee Higgins, but placed the franchise tag on him for the second straight offseason. Quarterback Joe Burrow pressured the organization during the week of the Super Bowl by repeating his desire to whoever would hear it that he expected all of the team’s key contributors back and well-compensated. None of that has come to fruition. Awkward.

Not to fret: tight ends Mike Gesicki and Tanner Hudson are back in the fold.

Seattle Seahawks

The second year of head coach Mike Macdonald’s tenure will certainly have a rebuild feel to it, despite the team’s 10-7 record in his inaugural campaign.

Of course, this is all by design. Smith, 34, was not in the franchise’s long-term plans. A Macdonald-coached team will always prioritize the defensive side of the ball and controlling the football on the other, and Smith wasn’t an ideal fit for that philosophy. Without Smith, it didn’t necessarily make sense to hang onto Metcalf, either, especially if he desired to play elsewhere.

AFC North QBs

Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson – who has his left tackle Ronnie Stanley back on a three-year, $60 million deal – and the ‘Steelers starter to be named later’ likely had high hopes they no longer had to see Garrett on the other side of the line of scrimmage twice a year. That’s the dangerous thing about hope.

AFC North cornerbacks

Having to deal with the whirling dervish that is George Pickens and now DK Metcalf? There is no safe side of the field for secondary players on the Steelers’ schedule, but that’s entirely from a physical standpoint rather than production-wise. Because, well, who exactly is going to be throwing these guys the football?

Tee Higgins

His one-word tweet summed it up best: ‘tag.’ He wasn’t talking about the playground game. A $26.2 million payday – the Clemson product made $21.8 million on the franchise tag last season – is nothing to sneeze at, but as an elite wideout in his prime, Higgins would almost certainly do better on the open market.

Trey Hendrickson

The Bengals let Hendrickson, 30, know where he is in the pecking order of getting deals done by allowing him to seek a trade. His in the final year of his contract ($16 million in 2025) and is seeking security beyond next season.

Jerry Jones

Yeah, he’s got to pay Parsons sooner rather than later, because that price tag increases by the minute and this next week won’t do the Dallas Cowboys owner any favors. But the biggest issue is that Mr. Jones is still calling the shots in Dallas yet seems to have forgotten the core tenets of team building and free agency. Dallas did well to avoid the franchise tag on defensive lineman Osa Odighizuwa and sign him to a long-term deal, but the Cowboys have failed in that approach and allowed their stars to become more expensive, thereby handicapping themselves in the process. This offseason was no different.

Conversations at the Indianapolis JW Marriott Starbucks

The NFL

Maybe the league should drop the whole façade of a ‘legal tampering window.’ It’s gotten to the point where not even a casual fan knows that 12 p.m. ET means anything significant. The idea of the new league year and contractual formalities means it has to exist, but pretending it actually means anything is silly.

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President Donald Trump is making calls on Monday to potential holdouts on a plan to avoid a government shutdown at the end of this week, a White House official confirmed to Fox News digital.

Three sources have said Trump world is making calls to Capitol Hill ahead of the late Tuesday afternoon vote.

Two senior House Republicans said they expected Trump to speak directly with critics of the bill sometime before the vote on Tuesday.

The House and Senate must pass a bill and get it to Trump’s desk before the end of Friday to avoid a partial government shutdown.

Two sources said Trump aides have been in contact with lawmakers who could vote against the bill, while the third source said the White House has also phoned reliable ‘yes’ votes to ensure Republicans will ‘show a unified front’ during the vote.

‘I’m sure the president is making calls,’ one senior House Republican told Fox News Digital.

But as of late afternoon Monday, the pressure campaign has not reached every House GOP lawmaker with doubts.

One GOP lawmaker who said they were undecided about the bill said they had not heard from the White House, nor House leadership.

The legislation is a rough extension of fiscal year (FY) 2024 funding levels known as a ‘continuing resolution’ (CR).

Republicans have traditionally rejected CRs in droves, frequently advocating for ‘regular order’ involving 12 annual appropriations bills crafted by Congress. 

But unlike with previous CR votes, House Democratic leaders have signaled that the left will not vote against shutting down the government en masse as usual over the last two years.

Democratic leaders have accused Republicans of using the CR to pave the way for Trump and Elon Musk to carry out their Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) efforts — something conservatives are using as an argument to their own colleagues in favor of the bill.

It’s possible at least several moderate Democrats running in competitive races next year will vote to avoid a shutdown, but Republicans are expected to largely shoulder the burden on their own.

At least one Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., is already opposed. He wrote on X, ‘Unless I get a lobotomy Monday that causes me to forget what I’ve witnessed the past 12 years, I’ll be a NO on the CR this week.’

It’s not immediately clear if the White House has made any private overtures to Massie for his vote, and his spokesman did not immediately return a request for comment.

Former Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita, however, responded to him with a pointed message on X, ‘Tick tock Tommie.’

Meanwhile, a third House Republican, who said it ‘wouldn’t surprise’ them if Trump was making calls, was frustrated at what they saw as repetitive political theater by dissenters.

‘You’ve got these handful of members that see themselves as the ‘purists,’ and if we all just shared their vision, all of the problems we faced would magically disappear. This act is getting old!’ the House Republican said. ‘Can you imagine if we just shut down the government during a unified government because we can’t get an agreement out of the House?’

Fox News Digital reached out to Speaker Mike Johnson’s office and the White House for comment but did not hear back by press time.

House Republicans released the text of their 99-page continuing resolution on Saturday.

Trump was previously credited with helping get House Republicans’ framework for a massive conservative budget overhaul over the line after lengthy phone calls with two holdouts, Reps. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., and Tim Burchett, R-Tenn.

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Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Monday that the mineral deal, sought by President Donald Trump, is ‘not the main topic on the agenda’ for the meeting set with the Ukrainian delegation in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday. 

‘I wouldn’t prejudge tomorrow about whether or not we have a minerals deal,’ he told reporters on board a flight to Saudi Arabia. ‘It’s an important topic, but it’s not the main topic on the agenda.

‘The minerals deal is on the table that’s continuing to be worked on – it’s not part of this conversation, per se,’ he said, noting that Tuesday’s meeting in Jeddah can be considered successful even without securing such an agreement.

‘It’s certainly a deal the president wants to see done, but it doesn’t necessarily have to happen tomorrow,’ Rubio added. 

The Ukrainian delegation is set to include Andriy Yermak, head of the presidential office, Andrii Sybiha, minister of foreign affairs, Pavlo Palisa, colonel of armed forces of Ukraine and an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as well as Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, who was not only involved in initial talks with Russia following its February 2022 invasion, but who also survived a poisoning attack after a peace meeting in March that year. 

Rubio will meet with the delegation in the city of Jeddah around noon local time on Tuesday.

‘The important point in this meeting is to establish clearly their intentions, their desire, as they’ve said publicly now, numerous times, to reach a point where peace is possible,’ Rubio said, adding that he will need to be assured that Kyiv is prepared to make some hard decisions, like giving up territory seized by Russia, in order to end the three-year war. 

‘Both sides need to come to an understanding,’ he said. ‘The Russians can’t conquer all of Ukraine, and obviously it will be very difficult for Ukraine, in any reasonable time period, to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014. So the only solution to this war is diplomacy and getting them to a table where that’s possible.

 ‘Then we’ll have to determine how far they are from the Russian position, which we don’t know yet either. And then once you understand where both sides truly are, it gives you a sense of how big the divide is and how hard it’s going to be,’ Rubio explained. ‘I’m hoping it’ll be a positive interaction along those lines.’

Steve Witkoff, special envoy to the Middle East who has increasingly been involved with the talks regarding Ukraine and Russia, told Fox News’ Dana Perino on ‘America’s Newsroom’ Monday morning, that the Trump administration has ‘gone a long way’ to ‘narrow the differences’ when dealing with Moscow and to get it to the negotiating table – though he did not go into detail. 

Witkoff suggested relations with Ukraine began to once again improve after Zelenskyy sent Trump a letter in which he apologized for the Oval Office exchange that went sour late last month after he refused to sign a mineral deal and angered the Trump administration – resulting in a series of explosive outbursts on live TV. 

While a mineral deal is unlikely to be achieved this week, according to Rubio, he said he hopes that with a successful meeting in Jeddah, he can secure the resumption of aid to Ukraine, though he did not detail if this would include the defensive aid the Trump administration halted, despite Russia’s continued bombardment against Ukrainian targets, or the intelligence sharing which the U.S. also stopped following the Oval Office showdown. 

‘The pause in aid broadly is something I hope we can resolve,’ Rubio said. ‘I think what happens tomorrow will be key to that.’

Rubio also said that Russia will see its own consequences if it doesn’t agree to negotiate on ending the war in Ukraine, including additional sanctions. 

‘It should be clear to everyone that the United States has tools available to also impose costs on the Russian side of this equation,’ Rubio said. ‘But we hope it doesn’t come to that. 

‘What we’re hoping is that both sides realize that this is not a conflict that can end by military means,’ he added. 

On Friday, in a posting on the Truth Social platform, Trump threatened Russia with ‘large scale Banking Sanctions, Sanctions and Tariffs,’ until a ceasefire and peace settlement are reached.  

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A former Iraqi refugee pleaded guilty to conspiring to provide material support to the Islamic State group, according to the Justice Department. 

Abdulrahman Mohammed Hafedh Alqaysi, 28, pleaded guilty to creating and developing logos for ISIS’ media wing, known as the Kalachnikov team, and sending hacking videos and instructions to ISIS members between 2015 and 2020, the Justice Department announced Friday. 

He also pleaded guilty to providing stolen credit card information and creating fraudulent identity documents for the designated terrorist group. 

Alqaysi, currently a legal permanent resident in Richmond, Texas, will remain in custody until his June 5 sentencing. He faces up to 20 years behind bars and up to $250,000 in fines. 

The guilty plea comes after the Trump administration has moved to crack down on the vetting of refugees. For example, President Donald Trump signed executive orders in January suspending the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program and ramping up vetting of refugees ‘to the maximum degree possible,’ particularly those ‘from regions or nations with identified security risks.’

One of the orders, known as the Realigning the United States Refugee Admissions Program, instructs Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to admit refugees to the U.S. on a ‘case by case basis’ if the alien does not pose a national security threat to the U.S.

Additionally, Vice President JD Vance voiced concerns about the vetting process for refugees in January, and said in an interview with CBS anchor Margaret Brennan that the U.S. shouldn’t ‘unleash thousands of unvetted people into our country.’ 

Specifically, Vance pointed to an Afghan national arrested in October 2024 on charges of conspiring to conduct a terrorist attack on Election Day on behalf of ISIS, according to the Justice Department. 

‘I don’t agree that all these immigrants, or all these refugees have been properly vetted,’ Vance told Brennan. ‘In fact, we know that there are cases of people who allegedly were properly vetted and then were literally planning terrorist attacks in our country. That happened during the campaign, if you may remember. So, clearly, not all of these foreign nationals have been properly vetted.’

A spokesperson for Vance did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital about Alqaysi’s guilty plea. 

Fox News’ Julia Johnson and Lindsay Kornick contributed to this report. 

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On the eve of his 50th day back in office, President Donald Trump is touting that America is ‘back.’

Trump, seven weeks into his second tour of duty in the White House, highlighted in an interview this weekend on Fox News’ ‘Sunday Morning Futures’ that he and his administration were moving ‘at a very rapid pace.’

’50 WINS IN 50 DAYS: President Trump Delivers for Americans,’ the White House touted in an email release on Monday, as it touted Trump’s accomplishments some of them controversial — since his Jan. 20 inauguration.

But the most recent national polls indicate Americans don’t have such a rosy view of the Trump presidency, and are divided on the job he’s done so far.

Trump’s approval ratings were underwater in three surveys – from Reuters/Ipsos, CNN and NPR/PBS/Marist – which were conducted ahead of the president’s address last week to a joint-session of Congress. It was the first major primetime speech of his second administration.

But Trump’s approval ratings were in positive territory in other new polls.

And Trump, who has long kept a close eye on public opinion polling, took to social media on Monday to showcase his ‘Highest Approval Ratings Since Inauguration.’

While Americans are split on Trump’s performance, the approval ratings for his second term are an improvement from his first tour of duty, when he started 2017 in negative territory and remained underwater throughout his four-year tenure in the White House.

But there’s been a bit of slippage.

An average of all the most recent national polls indicates that Trump’s approval ratings are just above water. However, Trump has seen his numbers edge down slightly since returning to the White House in late January, when an average of his polls indicated the president’s approval rating in the low 50s and his disapproval in the mid 40s.

‘Keep these numbers in perspective. The numbers he’s averaging right now are still higher than he was at any point during his first presidency,’ veteran Republican pollster Neil Newhouse told Fox News.

And Newhouse emphasized that Trump’s Republican ‘base is still strongly behind him.’

Daron Shaw, a politics professor and chair at the University of Texas, also pointed to Trump’s rock-solid GOP support.

‘He never had support among Democrats in the first administration, but he also had some trouble with Republicans,’ Shaw, who serves as a member of the Fox News Decision Team and is the Republican partner on the Fox News Poll, spotlighted. ‘That’s one acute difference between 2017 and 2025. The party’s completely solidified behind him.’

The president has been moving at warp speed during his opening seven weeks back in the White House with a flurry of executive orders and actions. His moves not only fulfilled some of his major campaign promises, but also allowed the returning president to flex his executive muscles, quickly putting his stamp on the federal government, making major cuts to the federal workforce and also settling some long-standing grievances.

Trump as of Monday had signed 89 executive orders since his inauguration, according to a count from Fox News, which far surpasses the rate of any recent presidential predecessors during their first weeks in office.

Those moves include a high-profile crackdown on immigration, slapping steep tariffs on major trading partners, including Canada and Mexico, and upending the nation’s foreign policy by freezing aid to Ukraine and clashing with that country’s president in the Oval Office.

‘He has flooded the zone with his policies and he’s thrown Democrats into disarray,’ Newhouse said.

And pointing to lackluster favorable ratings for the Democratic Party, Newhouse highlighted that Trump’s ‘numbers may be slightly slipping, but it sure as heck hasn’t gone to the Democrats.’

While he’s in a better polling position than during his first term, Trump’s approval ratings are lower seven weeks into his presidency than any of his recent predecessors in the White House.

Shaw noted that neither Trump nor former President Joe Biden ‘started out with overwhelming approval. This is not like the honeymoon period that we historically expect presidents to enjoy…. Historically, the other side gives you a little bit of leeway when you first come in. That just doesn’t happen anymore.’

Biden’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-50s during the first six months of his single term as president, with his disapproval in the upper 30s to the low- to-mid-40s. 

However, Biden’s numbers sank into negative territory in the late summer and autumn of 2021, in the wake of his much-criticized handling of the turbulent U.S. exit from Afghanistan, and amid soaring inflation and a surge of migrants crossing into the U.S. along the nation’s southern border with Mexico.

Biden’s approval ratings stayed underwater throughout the rest of his presidency.

‘He just got crippled and never recovered,’ Shaw said of Biden.

There are some warning signs for Trump.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated that just one in three Americans gave the president a thumbs-up on his handling of the cost of living.

Shaw emphasized that inflation, the issue that helped propel Trump back into the White House, remains critical to the president’s political fortunes.

‘If prices remain high, he’s going to have trouble,’ Shaw warned.

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The Calgary Petroleum Club is exactly what you would expect: dark wooden walls, fine decor, and rugged-looking wealthy men in jackets with no ties who can probably buy the whole West Virginia town where I live. This is where I met up with Gary Mar, a businessman and former government official, to see how President Donald Trump’s tariffs are impacting Canadian politics.

Mar served from 2007-2011 as minister-counselor of the Province of Alberta to the United States of America, and still has a hand in national politics.

I wanted to know about the surge in support that the Liberal Party, which chose Mark Carney as its new leader this week, has experienced since President Trump began launching tariffs, and how Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre can respond as the Canadian election heats up. 

‘There are two ballot issues,’ Mar said. ‘First, who is best able to deal with President Trump, and second, who is best able to run the economy?’ Obviously, the tariff situation, or as Canada calls it, the trade war, colors both of these issues.

Mar said the key is ‘to understand Trump’s motives for the tariffs,’ and he offered four possibilities: Increase U.S. manufacturing, generate revenue for tax cuts, balance the trade deficit, and/or create leverage for non-trade issues, in this case fentanyl coming over the Canadian border.

As a former diplomat, Gary found the fourth use of tariffs most objectionable, but what he was really asking was, what does Trump want or need from Canada to make this stop? In the absence of an answer to this question, Poilievre is in a dicey situation.

Ever since Conservative Party leader offered support to the anti-vaccine-mandate trucker protest in Ottawa in 2022, he has been viewed in Canada as aligned with Trump. But today, Trump is public enemy No. 1, and Poilievre’s party has bled 20 points in the polls in two months.

Carney and Liberals are already showering the Canadian airwaves with ads tying Poilievre to the U.S. president.

I asked Mar if Poilievre would be better off politically today if Trump were to praise or insult him. He didn’t even hesitate, saying ‘it would be better if Trump insulted him.’

Somehow, this Conservative leader and would-be prime minister has to find a way to be frenemies with Trump, like the younger brother who doesn’t take any guff from the older, to show he can work with Trump while also defending Canadian honor against a U.S. president threatening his proud nation’s sovereignty.

This is because everyone in Calgary, including Mar, has told me that Canadian nationalism, until recently almost an anachronism, is at levels they have never seen before. Trump’s constant trolling about making Canada the ’51st state’ is undoubtedly another factor.

The election, at soonest, will take place sometime in April. If the tariff issue is resolved quickly, it will free Poilievre up to campaign on the issues he wants to focus on, and I ran smack into one of them accidentally in Calgary on Sunday.

As I turned the corner amid a morning constitutional, I saw about 40 or 50 mostly women, with signs demanding Canada no longer allow biological men in women’s prisons. There I spoke with Heather Mason, who was incarcerated when the policy allowing men was introduced. 

Mason, and all of the other women there, had a clear message: ‘It has to stop.’ Poilievre agrees, and has publicly stated he will ban men from women’s prisons. 

These are the kinds of issues that conservatives in Canada, like their cousins to the south, want to focus on. But with tariffs sucking all the news oxygen out of the media, they can’t.

To be sure, Trump’s job is not to win elections for conservatives in Canada, it is to do what is in the best interest of the American people. But surely, on some level, America’s interest is tied to a good, functioning relationship with our closest trading partner to the north.

The scuttlebutt in the Great White North is that Liberals want a new election ASAP. They feel like they have the mojo, so the sooner, the better. Politically they want this trade war, as they put it, raging as Canadians cast their ballots.

‘There are two things that increase Canadian nationalism, war and sports, and we have both,’ Mar quipped, referring to the ‘trade war,’ and the USA vs Canada hockey rivalry’s revival.

In that kind of environment, Poilievre may need to punch back at Trump, but in a friendly way, the way brothers do. But that is a very fine line to walk. How he manages that challenge could define U.S. Canadian relations for a very long time to come.

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For years, American financial companies have fought the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — the chief U.S. consumer finance watchdog — in the courts and media, portraying the agency as illegitimate and as unfairly targeting industry players.

Now, with the CFPB on life support after the Trump administration issued a stop-work order and shuttered its headquarters, the agency finds itself with an unlikely ally: the same banks that reliably complained about its rules and enforcement actions under former Director Rohit Chopra.

That’s because if the Trump administration succeeds in reducing the CFPB to a shell of its former self, banks would find themselves competing directly with nonbank financial players, from big tech and fintech firms to mortgage, auto and payday lenders, that enjoy far less federal scrutiny than Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.-backed institutions.

“The CFPB is the only federal agency that supervises non-depository institutions, so that would go away,” said David Silberman, a veteran banking attorney who lectures at Yale Law School. “Payment apps like PayPal, Stripe, Cash App, those sorts of things, they would get close to a free ride at the federal level.”

The shift could wind the clock back to a pre-2008 environment, where it was largely left to state officials to prevent consumers from being ripped off by nonbank providers. The CFPB was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis that was caused by irresponsible lending.

But since then, digital players have made significant inroads by offering banking services via mobile phone apps. Fintechs led by PayPal and Chime had roughly as many new accounts last year as all large and regional banks combined, according to data from Cornerstone Advisors.

“If you’re the big banks, you certainly don’t want a world in which the non-banks have much greater degrees of freedom and much less regulatory oversight than the banks do,” Silberman said.

The CFPB and its employees are in limbo after acting Director Russell Vought took over last month, issuing a flurry of directives to the agency’s then 1,700 staffers. Working with operatives from Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, Vought quickly laid off about 200 workers, reportedly took steps to end the agency’s building lease and canceled reams of contracts required for legally mandated duties.

In internal emails released Friday, CFPB Chief Operating Officer Adam Martinez detailed plans to remove roughly 800 supervision and enforcement workers.

Senior executives at the CFPB shared plans for more layoffs that would leave the agency with just five employees, CNBC has reported. That would kneecap the agency’s ability to carry out its supervision and enforcement duties.

That appears to go beyond what even the Consumer Bankers Association, a frequent CFPB critic, would want. The CBA, which represents the country’s biggest retail banks, has sued the CFPB in the past year to scuttle rules limiting overdraft and credit card late fees. More recently, it noted the CFPB’s role in keeping a level playing field among market participants.

“We believe that new leadership understands the need for examinations for large banks to continue, given the intersections with prudential regulatory examinations,” said Lindsey Johnson, president of the CBA, in a statement provided to CNBC. “Importantly, the CFPB is the sole examiner of non-bank financial institutions.”

Vought’s plans to hobble the agency were halted by a federal judge, who is now considering the merits of a lawsuit brought by a CFPB union asking for a preliminary injunction.

A hearing where Martinez is scheduled to testify is set for Monday.

In the meantime, bank executives have gone from antagonists of the CFPB to among those concerned it will disappear.

At a late October bankers convention in New York, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon encouraged his peers to “fight back” against regulators. A few months before that, the bank said that it could sue the CFPB over its investigation into peer-to-peer payments network Zelle.

“We are suing our regulators over and over and over because things are becoming unfair and unjust, and they are hurting companies, a lot of these rules are hurting lower-paid individuals,” Dimon said at the convention.

Now, there’s growing consensus that an initial push to “delete” the CFPB is a mistake. Besides increasing the threat posed from nonbanks, current rules from the CFPB would still be on the books, but nobody would be around to update them as the industry evolves.

Small banks and credit unions would be even more disadvantaged than their larger peers if the CFPB were to go away, industry advocates say, since they were never regulated by the agency and would face the same regulatory scrutiny as before.

“The conventional wisdom is not right that banks just want the CFPB to go away, or that banks want regulator consolidation,” said an executive at a major U.S. bank who declined to be identified speaking about the Trump administration. “They want thoughtful policies that will support economic growth and maintain safety and soundness.”

A senior CFPB lawyer who lost his position in recent weeks said that the industry’s alignment with Republicans may have backfired.

“They’re about to live in a world in which the entire non-bank financial services industry is unregulated every day, while they are overseen by the Federal Reserve, FDIC and OCC,” the lawyer said. “It’s a world where Apple, PayPal, Cash App and X run wild for four years. Good luck.”

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