The top five rookies in this edition of USA TODAY Sports’ NBA rookie power rankings have scored at least 30 points once in a game this season.

Three of the top five (San Antonio’s Stephon Castle, Los Angeles Lakers’ Dalton Knecht and Atlanta’s Zaccharie Risacher) have scored at least 30 points in two games. Philadelphia’s Jared McCain, who was in the early Rookie of the Year race but is not in the top five because he had a season-ending surgery on his left knee in December, had games of 30 and 34 points in the first month of the season.

This wasn’t the most heralded rookie class, but several have proven they can be valuable contributors now with room to grow, and Knecht and Memphis’ Jaylen Wells are getting significant minutes on playoff-caliber teams.

The latest edition of the USA TODAY Sports’ rookie power rankings, with odds to win Rookie of th Year and stats through Sunday’s games (odds courtesy of BetMGM):

NBA rookie power rankings

5. Los Angeles Lakers guard Dalton Knecht

2024-25 stats: 20.6 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 46.6% FG, 36.6% 3PT, 75.4% FT

His season has been momentous by any measure — he went from tying an NBA rookie record in November with nine made 3s in a game to having his trade to the Hornets rescinded after Mark Williams failed a physical. Yet, as injuries to LeBron James and Rui Hachimura have piled up, Knecht has played more minutes, and he has delivered, averaging 14.5 points over his past eight games.

Odds: None listed

4. Washington Wizards forward Alexandre Sarr

2024-25 stats: 12.3 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.5 bpg, 39.2% FG, 32.3% 3PT, 64.5% FT

Sarr has missed time due to injuries, however rookies are not required to play in a minimum number of games to be eligible for Rookie of the Year. And if he stays healthy, he will reach 65 games played this season anyway. In his past 10 games, Sarr averaged 15.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.5 blocks and shot 37.7% from the field and 37.3% on 3s. His shooting efficiency needs improvement but the tools are there. In consecutive victories over playoff teams, Sarr had 19 points, five rebounds, four blocks and three assists against Detroit on March 13 and a career-high 34 points with six rebounds, five assists, one steal and one block against Denver on March 15.

Odds: +5000

3. Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher

2024-25 stats: 11.7 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.2 apg, 44.4% FG, 34.3% 3PT, 71.4% FT

Though he’s still susceptible to drastic swings in production, Risacher has continued to improve and has shown glimpses of what his future could be with more work in the offseason to refine his game and bulk up. Still 19, Risacher has shown an ability to knock down jumpers with range and solid footwork when attacking the rim. He’s averaging 14 points since Jan. 30.

Odds: +1600

2. Memphis Grizzlies guard Jaylen Wells

2024-25 stats: 10.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.7 apg, 43.3% FG, 36% 3PT, 80.5% FT

His scoring has dipped recently, which may be allowing Castle to build a lead in the battle for Rookie of the Year. Wells is averaging just 5.3 points on 25.5% shooting from the floor over his past seven games. While Wells has a track record of success this season, the timing of this late-season slump is hurting his chances.

Odds: +1600

1. San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle

2024-25 stats: 13.7 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3.1 rpg, 42.7% FG, 28.1% 3PT, 71.9% FT

With Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox out for the season, Castle is receiving more opportunities and has improved his scoring efficiency. In his past 21 games, Castle averaged 17.1 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 1.3 steals and shot 46.8% from the field, 30.4% on 3-pointers and 71.9% on free throws. During that stretch, he has taken just two more field-goal attempts per game than his season average but is scoring nearly four more points per game. The No. 4 pick in the 2024 draft, Castle had 32 points and eight rebounds against Oklahoma City on March 2. The day before, he had 24 points, three rebounds and seven assists in a victory against Memphis. With his size, Castle provides scoring, rebounding and passing versatility and has proven himself a valuable asset for the Spurs.

Odds: -900

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Auburn earned the No. 1 overall NCAA Tournament seed. Its prize? A path full of landmines to reach the Final Four.
Louisville and Michigan are under-seeded March Madness teams lurking in Auburn’s region.
Bruce Pearl downplayed Auburn’s region draw, and he’s not concerned by his team losing three of its last four games within a rugged SEC.

The NCAA men’s tournament selection committee must have taken inspiration from the folks at the College Football Playoff when drawing up Auburn’s region in March Madness.

The committee awarded Bruce Pearl’s Tigers the No. 1 overall seed but stuck them in a South Region loaded with trip wires.

Auburn’s treacherous path to the Final Four reminds me of Oregon football’s draw as the No. 1 seed in the CFP bracket. The Ducks’ prize for an undefeated regular season became a prison of the committee’s making: a quarterfinal matchup with Ohio State, the nation’s most-talented team. The Buckeyes built the best résumé among at-large qualifiers, but the committee overlooked that during seeding. Oregon narrowly beat Ohio State during the regular season but got smashed in the playoff rematch.

Although no one in Auburn’s region presents as the basketball equivalent to Ohio State football, there’s nothing easy about this region. To the contrary, I consider this the tournament’s toughest. The committee would seem to agree.

After seeding snub, Louisville may be early test for Auburn

The committee’s true seeding revealed it considers Louisville the best No. 8 seed and Creighton the top No. 9 seed. Auburn would play one of those teams in the second round.

Multiple bracket experts had projected Louisville to be a No. 6 seed.

‘It hurt a little bit,’ Louisville coach Pat Kelsey said on ESPN Radio, when asked about his team’s seeding. ‘You felt slighted a little bit.’

The committee’s selection of North Carolina as the last team in received outsized attention, but the much bigger – and potentially consequential – whiff was the committee’s under-seeding of Louisville and No. 5 Michigan, then shoving both into Auburn’s bracket.

That potential second-round matchup with Louisville would occur at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Kentucky, less than 80 miles from Louisville’s campus.

Pearl shrugged off the notion that his team could be at a disadvantage facing Louisville in Lexington, but he admitted he didn’t expect to see Louisville as a No. 8 seed.

“Most of the stuff we had seen had (Louisville) on the 6- or 7-line,” Pearl said. “Somehow, they got bumped down to 8.

“Auburn travels,” he added. “We’re going to travel. We’re going to have a lot of people up in Lexington.”

Advance to the Sweet 16, and Auburn could meet either Texas A&M or Michigan. The committee ranks those teams as the best Nos. 4 and 5 seeds, respectively.

Auburn’s region also includes the Big Ten’s regular-season champion, No. 2 Michigan State, and its tournament champion, Michigan. The Big Ten graded as the nation’s second-best conference and qualified eight teams.

In other words, to reach the Final Four, the Tigers must play hopscotch across a field of landmines.

REGIONAL PREDICTIONS: East | West | Midwest | South

Bruce Pearl not worried by Auburn losses before March Madness

Pearl lands on my Mount Rushmore of active coaches who’ve never won a national championship. This marks his first time coaching a No. 1-seeded team, and it’s Auburn’s first time ever earning a top seed.

Pearl produced his best March Madness performances as an underdog. His Tigers reached the Final Four for the first time in program history in 2019 as a No. 5 seed.

He reached the Elite Eight in 2010 coaching Tennessee, as a No. 6 seed. And his 2005 Wisconsin-Milwaukee squad reached the Sweet 16 as a No. 12 seed by upsetting Alabama and Boston College.

“These would be the highest goals, I think, I’ve ever had heading into the NCAA Tournament,” Pearl said. “I’m more of a 12-seed guy, in my whole career, than I am a 1-seed.”

Auburn operated as the nation’s best team for most of the season, fueled by indefatigable big man Johni Broome, before losing three of its last four games.

Duke, Houston and Florida earned the other No. 1 seeds. Each won a conference tournament championship. Duke and Houston also won regular-season conference crowns. Each of those three teams built a case for being the No. 1 overall seed, but the committee chose Auburn after the Tigers led the nation with 16 “Quad 1” victories.

Pearl, after Auburn’s loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals, downplayed his team’s three recent losses against SEC opponents, all of which are seeded No. 4 or better in the NCAA Tournament.

“Yeah, we’re panicked,” Pearl said in a tone thick with sarcasm, before shaking his head in apparent annoyance at a reporter’s question about Auburn losing three of its last four.

If he’s annoyed by Auburn’s draw in the NCAA bracket, he’s not showing it.

“Our goal is to win the national championship,” Pearl said. “If we don’t win a national championship, we’ll be disappointed, as a No. 1 seed.”

Blake Toppmeyer is a columnist for the USA TODAY Network. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer. Subscribe to read all of his columns.

The 2025 Major League Baseball season is officially underway.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs have the honor of getting things started in the two-game Tokyo Series.

With Japan natives Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga taking the mound and a sellout crowd packing the Tokyo Dome, the Dodgers began defense of the World Series title they won last fall by claiming a 4-1 victory in the season opener.

MLB 2025: 100 Names to Know for the new baseball season

Reigning National League MVP Shohei Ohtani singled, doubled and scored a pair of runs to lead the L.A. offense. Yamamoto earned the victory, giving up one run and three hits, while striking out four in five innings. Tanner Scott picked up the save in his Dodgers debut after signing a $72 million deal with the Dodgers this winter.

The two teams are back at it Wednesday, with the final game of the series slated for 6 a.m. ET. Rōki Sasaki will make his MLB debut for the Dodgers, opposed by lefty Justin Steele for the Cubs.

Here’s how Tuesday’s game unfolded at the Tokyo Dome:

Shohei Ohtani sets up Dodgers insurance run

In the top of the ninth with the Dodgers clinging to a two-run lead, Ohtani hit a one-out double into the right-field corner. Ohtani moved to third on Tommy Edman’s groundout and then came in to score his second run of the game on Teoscar Hernandez’s RBI single to left field, expanding the Los Angeles lead to 4-1.

To the ninth: Dodgers 3, Cubs 1

The Cubs and Dodgers have been trading zeroes, heading into the ninth inning with Los Angeles leading 3-1. Both teams squandered scoring opportunities in the eighth, each unable to bring in a runner from second with one out.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto done after five

Starting the MLB season opener in his return to Japan, Yoshinobu Yamamoto pitched five strong innings for the Dodgers, giving up one run on three hits with one walk and four strikeouts. Anthony Banda came on to pitch the sixth inning with Yamamoto in line for the win departing with a 3-1 lead.

Dodgers take 3-1 lead in fifth

The Dodgers finally broke through in the top of the fifth inning.

Held hitless through the first four frames against Cubs starter Shōta Imanaga, the defending World Series champs jumped on reliever Ben Brown for three runs in the fifth.

After center fielder Andy Pages drew a one-out walk, Shohei Ohtani recorded the Dodgers’ first hit with a sharp single to right field. Tommy Edman then tied the game at 1 with an RBI single to left. Ohtani scored the go-ahead run when Teoscar Hernandez grounded into a force out. And Hernandez came around to score after advancing on a throwing error and a Will Smith single.

Through five innings, the Dodgers lead 3-1.

Shōta Imanaga holds Dodgers hitless through four

The Chicago Cubs got pretty much everything they wanted out of starting pitcher Shōta Imanaga.

Imanaga departed after tossing four no-hit innings against the Dodgers – and doing it in an unexpected way. The control expert walked four of the 16 batters he faced. Those four walks were more than he had in any of his 29 starts last season. Yet he also got 12 swinging strikes in his four innings of work. 

Ben Brown came on to replace Imanaga in the top of the fifth.

Miguel Amaya puts Dodgers in front

With two outs in the bottom of the second, Cubs catcher Miguel Amaya laced an RBI double to right center field off Yoshinobu Yamamoto, bringing home Dansby Swanson for the first run of the 2025 MLB season.

Chicago leads 1-0 heading into the third inning.

Shōta Imanaga works out of trouble

The Cubs starter walked Will Smith and Max Muncy to begin the top of the second, but got Enrique Hernandez, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas all to pop out, ending the threat.

Why is Freddie Freeman not playing?

Already missing one MVP in their lineup, the Los Angeles Dodgers don’t have a second one either as they open the MLB season in Japan. First baseman Freddie Freeman was scratched just before first pitch against the Chicago Cubs due to what the team said was left rib discomfort.

Freeman, the 2020 NL Most Valuable Player, was hobbling the last time the Dodgers played – as he was slowed by an ankle injury during last year’s World Series, though he still won MVP honors.

Kike Hernandez moved from left field to replace Freeman at first base in the Dodgers lineup against Cubs starter Shōta Imanaga. Michael Conforto, who wasn’t in the original lineup, took Hernandez’s place in left.

Shōta Imanaga tosses 1-2-3 first

The 2025 MLB season is officially underway with the Cubs lefty setting the Dodgers down in order in the top of the first inning.

Kosuke Fukudome throws first pitch

Former Cubs outfielder Kosuke Fukudome threw out the ceremonial first pitch at the Tokyo Dome on Tuesday. Fukudome joined the Cubs prior to the 2008 season and was an All-Star as a rookie, ultimately returning to Japan after five years in MLB.

Dodgers lineup today

Cubs lineup today

Dodgers vs. Cubs pitchers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shōta Imanaga

RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers – 7-2, 3.00 ERA in 2024: Was limited to 18 starts in first year of $325 million deal, but went 2-0 in four postseason starts.

LHP Shota Imanaga, Cubs – 15-3, 2.91 ERA in 2024: The 31-year-old was an All-Star and finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting as a rookie last season.

Shohei Ohtani gets hero’s welcome in Japan

Masanori Murakami traveled to San Francisco 61 years ago this month on his way to becoming the first Japanese player in Major League Baseball.

On Tuesday, five of his countrymen, including national hero Shohei Ohtani, will don MLB uniforms in Tokyo as the world champion Los Angeles Dodgers face the Chicago Cubs in their season opener.

‘Everyone in Japan is going to be watching for Ohtani on TV,’ said Murakami, 80, who played for the San Francisco Giants in the mid 1960s and plans to attend the two-game series this week. ‘The old people say ‘he’s such a good boy,’ and the young girls say ‘oh, he’s so cool.” – Reuters

Mookie Betts illness keeps Dodgers star off roster

The Dodgers won’t have one of their top players when they open the 2025 MLB season.

Shortstop Mookie Betts will not play in the two-game series against the Chicago Cubs in Tokyo due to an illness that’s caused him to lose 15 pounds, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Monday. Betts, an eight-time All-Star, has been battling an illness for the past week and although he’s feeling better, Roberts said he’s still trying to regain his strength.

‘He’s not going to play in these two games,’ Roberts said. ‘When you’re dehydrated, that’s what opens a person up to soft tissue injuries. We’re very mindful of that.’

– Steve Gardner, USA TODAY

Tokyo Dome dimensions

It’s 328 feet down the lines and 400 feet to center field at the Tokyo Dome.

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Boxing star Claressa Shields will face no disciplinary action for testing positive for marijuana after Michigan officials cited evidence that a ‘procedural error’’ occurred during the oral fluids test, according to a ruling issued Tuesday and obtained by USA TODAY Sports.

‘FAULTY TEST!!!” Shields wrote on X, formerly Twitter. ‘Evidence proved it! The Suspension was lifted a few days ago and now Today the Complaint was closed! I’m officially Cleared!’

Shields’ suspension, which took effect Feb. 12, was dissolved Friday by the Michigan Unarmed Combat Commission (MUCC), which regulates boxing. But the ruling left Shields facing possible enforcement action and the matter unresolved.

On Tuesday, however, the two-time Olympic gold medalist received notice that the matter had been closed and no disciplinary action taken “following receipt of additional evidence that a procedural error occurred during the collection of Respondent’s oral fluid specimen.’’

Shields, 29, tested positive after her Feb. 2 against Danielle Perkins in her hometown of Flint, Michigan. She was randomly drug tested, in adherence to MUCC rules, after beating Perkins by unanimous decision and becoming the undisputed women’s heavyweight champion.

Turmoil followed when Shields learned Feb. 7 she’d tested positive for marijuana, according to the boxer.

Marijuana is legal in Michigan but a banned substance in competition for boxers.

No information about evidence of a ‘procedural error” was included in the final ruling, signed by Caitlin Keene of the Licensing Regulatory and Affairs (LARA), which works with MUCC on disciplinary matters. But attorney David Slutsker, who represented Shields, cited possibilities. During the testing, he said, a swab broke in Shields’ mouth.

‘There was no backup testing kit,” Slutsker told USA TODAY Sports. ‘The broken swab was placed on a possibly contaminated towel randomly lying on the testing table before being placed in the vial.”

Slutsker also said Shields should have been asked if she ate or drank anything 10 minutes prior to testing and she was not asked. He also said she was tested in ‘the aroma filled hallway,” which led to speculation that secondhand smoke could have triggered a positive test.

Although Slutsker said he was unsure about what evidence led to the favorable outcome for Shields, he said of the month-long ordeal, ‘Just pleased and very satisfied with this result. It was the right result.’’

Dmitriy Salita, promoter of the Feb. 2 boxing card in Flint where Shields (16-0) was drug tested, said he was pleased the situation is resolved.

‘Claressa Shields has always been a disciplined, dedicated, and professional athlete,” Salita said in a statement provided to USA TODAY Sports. ‘… She remains focused on continuing to make history and elevate women’s boxing to new heights.’

NFL power rankings with the 2025 free agency period largely played out (previous rank in parentheses):

1. Philadelphia Eagles (1): The triumph is still fairly fresh – and we’re also in an era when spinning ahead has greatly trumped a little old-fashioned reflection – but how great were the 2024 Eagles? For my money, the 2013 Seahawks are still the most impressive single-season squad of the 21st century. But last season’s Philly squad has a strong case as the next best – for one year – over the past quarter-century. And unlike the Legion of Boom’s unrealized dynastic hopes, the Eagles have a shot to sustain this success for a minute, especially after the retention of All-Pro LB Zack Baun. And while this roster took the typical hit most Super Bowl champions experience, the young talent in the pipeline is impressive, and EVP/GM Howie Roseman is sure to add more during the draft … if not a surprise at some other point.

2. Buffalo Bills (3): Have last season’s AFC runners-up pulled ahead of the bugaboo Chiefs in recent weeks? At minimum, Buffalo’s perch atop the AFC East seems virtually guaranteed to extend to a sixth straight year following the extensions for QB Josh Allen and DE Greg Rousseau and the jolts from ex-Bolts DE Joey Bosa and WR Josh Palmer. Given the issues elsewhere in the division, the cherished No. 1 playoff seed seems quite feasible in 2025.

3. Baltimore Ravens (4): By and large, the AFC North champs are running it back in 2025 – and why not? Two-time league MVP Lamar Jackson somehow seems to consistently improve year over year and now has DeAndre Hopkins as his No. 3 wideout. The Ravens looked like the best team in the league for periods of time last season, and who knows what happens if TE Mark Andrews doesn’t drop that would-be two-point conversion in the playoff loss at Buffalo? Yet a team that lost twice to last-place clubs in 2024 remains too prone to self-sabotage.

4. Los Angeles Rams (10): Good as the Eagles were, no team pushed them closer to the playoff brink than this one … at Lincoln Financial Field … in the snow … amid something of a youth movement. QB Matthew Stafford, 37, and newly signed WR Davante Adams, 32, certainly aren’t wet behind the ears but are on board for a Super Bowl push with what should be one of the NFC’s bona fide contenders.

5. Kansas City Chiefs (2): They found a way to keep RG Trey Smith, LB Nick Bolton, WR Hollywood Brown and RB Kareem Hunt and should get WR Rashee Rice back (for most of) next season. But some key players also departed, namely All-Pro G Joe Thuney, and the left side of an O-line that utterly collapsed in the Super Bowl loss currently seems as suspect as ever.

6. Washington Commanders (5): They’re loading up with accomplished veterans – and older, flawed ones – like LT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel in a bid to maximize their championship odds before QB Jayden Daniels becomes the league’s richest man (in 2027 or 2028). The trades leave Washington’s next two drafts at least partially compromised, but the 2021 Rams recently proved that picks can be overrated.

7. Detroit Lions (6): The NFC’s No. 1 seed in 2024 will return largely intact … between the lines. But how much will they miss OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn, who both took head coaching jobs this offseason?

8. Green Bay Packers (8): By the numbers, the 2024 squad improved noticeably compared to the 2023 version. But that didn’t hold during the playoffs, where the decimated Pack went one-and-done in Philadelphia. But if Green Bay has all of its dudes in 2025 – and maybe one more substantive weapon on offense – Draft Town could very conceivably wind up as Titletown yet again.

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7): The seemingly perennial NFC South champions have quietly become one of the league’s models of consistency – a reputation only bolstered by WR Chris Godwin’s decision to take (far) less money to remain in Tampa than sign elsewhere.

10. Los Angeles Chargers (11): For a team that was embarrassed in the playoffs, sure feels like more talent has been going out the door than coming in – wideout and cornerback particular areas of concern.

11. San Francisco 49ers (17): Perhaps no organization is facing a wider variance of potential outcomes than this one, the Niners banking on comeback seasons by QB Brock Purdy, RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Brandon Aiyuk (if not on departed – to Green Bay – G Aaron Banks). But once and future DC Robert Saleh has a lot of work ahead of him with a younger, seemingly less-talented unit.

12. Seattle Seahawks (15): A 10-win team in 2024 has already gotten as big an overhaul as any club in 2025 – which was probably necessary if second-year HC Mike Macdonald’s vision for it was going to be fulfilled. However, speaking of outcome variance, much will depend on new QB Sam Darnold remaining at his Pro Bowl polarity from last season as opposed to his career’s other extreme.

13. Cincinnati Bengals (12): Can you imagine how far QB Joe Burrow could go if he had a packed-to-the-gills supporting cast like Minnesota’s … rather than the financially top-heavy one he demanded in Cincy?

14. Minnesota Vikings (14): Can you imagine how far this loaded roster could go if it had a proven quarterback like, say, Burrow?

15. Arizona Cardinals (16): They doubled their 2023 victory total to eight in 2024. With de facto Super Bowl MVP Josh Sweat now in tow, the Cards might be good enough to add another four to the win column in 2025 … if they didn’t have to navigate such a nasty division.

16. Chicago Bears (21): Fool me once, shame on you. But with the arrival of Johnson to spark QB Caleb Williams’ development, not to mention an entirely upgraded interior to the offensive line – to say nothing of the D-line reinforcements … we can’t get fooled again.

17. Denver Broncos (13): If new additions Talanoa Hufanga, Dre Greenlaw and Evan Engram can remain healthy – hardly a given – these new edition Broncos could be quite formidable.

18. Houston Texans (9): A team that’s probably still the AFC South’s best could also be worse than all eight NFC North and NFC West clubs. But with a struggling offense changing coordinators while deporting Tunsil, its best – by far – blocker, reason to be concerned with the way things are trending for QB C.J. Stroud.

19. New England Patriots (18): They’ve allocated nearly $300 million contractually to free agents over the past week or so and will get a premium talent atop the draft board, where they don’t have to force a quarterback choice. But the arrival of Pats Hall of Famer Mike Vrabel as the new head coach could be what restores this franchise to competitive status far more quickly than some might expect.

20. Dallas Cowboys (20): Even if their Big Three – QB Dak Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb, LB Micah Parsons – perform up to specs, can the other 50 guys give rookie HC Brian Schottenheimer enough juice to end the playoff absence of ‘America’s Team’ at one year?

21. Miami Dolphins (19): Question – what do you get when you tie up a ton of money into a quarterback and No. 2 receiver frequently short-circuited by injuries to go with an otherworldly (if often moody) WR1? Answer – Bengals South … which means the softer, less imposing version.

22. Atlanta Falcons (23): They’ve got the most expensive backup quarterback ever … which basically defeats the purpose of having a QB1 on a rookie deal.

23. Carolina Panthers (25): QB Bryce Young had a passer rating of at least 100.0 in his final three starts last season … after hitting that benchmark twice during his first 25 NFL starts. If he and the rest of this roster can sustain their 2024 progress, don’t be surprised if 2025 ends with a playoff miracle.

24. Jacksonville Jaguars (22): If rookie HC Liam Coen can do for QB Trevor Lawrence what he did for Baker Mayfield in Tampa, then the Jags could have a legitimate shot to return to the top of a seemingly winnable AFC South.

25. New York Jets (27): New QB Justin Fields is a low-risk, high-ceiling addition – one that might finally settle the NYJ behind center … or put them in position for Arch Manning in the 2026 draft.

26. Pittsburgh Steelers (24): Let us know who the quarterback is, and we might have a more positive outlook for the 2025 season … though Russell Wilson clearly isn’t the correct answer.

27. Cleveland Browns (30): Let us know who the quarterback is, and we might have a more positive outlook for the 2025 season … though Deshaun Watson and Kenny Pickett clearly aren’t the correct answers.

28. Indianapolis Colts (26): Let us know who the quarterback is, and we might have a more positive outlook for the 2025 season … though could Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones truly be the correct answer?

29. New Orleans Saints (32): Possibly aside from rookie HC Kellen Moore, this already feels like another offseason of lateral moves for a franchise that’s been moving laterally – at best – since QB Drew Brees retired four years ago.

30. Las Vegas Raiders (28): New-ish minority owner (Tom Brady), new GM (John Spytek), new (old actually) coach (Pete Carroll) and, now, a new QB1 (Geno Smith) in the fold. What does it all mean? Probably another last-place finish and continued absence from postseason, in the near term anyway.

31. Tennessee Titans (29): Whether they take QB Cam Ward atop the 2025 draft or deal out, feels like a long road to relevance from Nashville.

32. New York Giants (31): Whether they trade up to take QB Cam Ward atop the 2025 draft or not, feels like a long road to relevance from East Rutherford, N.J.

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March Madness is defined by its unpredictability and ability to produce magical moments. We’ve seen a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed twice. We’ve double-digit seeds reach the Final Four. We’ve seen buzzer-beaters end careers. It’s tough to predict what unlikely outcomes we will be treated to during the next three weeks.

With that in mind, it’s time offer some hot takes for the Big Dance. For some, there’s some historical evidence to bolster these forecasts. Will all of these predictions come true? Not likely. But the one great thing about the NCAA Tournament is its about the unexpected.

1. North Carolina wins multiple games

There are plenty of opinions on whether North Carolina should be in the field or not, but what can’t be denied is the Tar Heels certainly can put up fights against great teams. Yes they were 1-12 in Quad 1 games, but six of those losses were by single-digits, and four were by three points or less. North Carolina showed it could compete.

The Tar Heels make a major statement against San Diego State in the First Four and then don’t stop there in their next matchup with Mississippi. Will North Carolina advance further? Likely not, but the Tar Heels will have some success that silence the doubters.

REGIONAL PREDICTIONS: East | West | Midwest | South

NCAA PICKS: See how our experts filled out their tournament brackets

2. Kansas, Connecticut are one and done in NCAA Tournament

Two of the biggest programs in the sports will have early exits with Kansas and Connecticut losing in the first round. The Jayhawks have won at least one game in their last 17 tournament appearances. They enter as a No. 7 seed – their worst since the streak began – against Arkansas. And momentum is not in their favor. Kansas have five losses in their nine games. Look for a disappointing finish against the Razorbacks.

The Huskies are back-to-back defending national champions and winners of 12 consecutive tournament games. But those runs come to an end with the Huskies facing Oklahoma in the opening round. With UConn, you don’t know whether an elite team or a mistake-prone squad will show up. The Sooners had late push to get themselves in the field, and Jeremiah Fears continues his fantastic play to end any three-peat discussion.

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3. Half of SEC crop lose in first round

A record amount of 14 SEC teams made the field and they showed their strength against non-conference foes. But the success doesn’t carry over into March with no more than seven teams will be standing by Saturday.

Top seeds like Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee should be fine, but its the rest in the middle that will struggle. There are some juicy upsets possibly with Texas A&M, Mississippi and Missouri, plus ones like challenges for Georgia, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. There’s no doubt the SEC will likely have the most teams left by the second round, but it surely won’t be able to say it was as strong as it thinks it is.

4. Gonzaga’s Sweet 16 streak ends

For the past nine tournaments, no matter the seed, Mark Few has found a way to make the second weekend of the tournament, a testament to the consistent success of the Bulldogs. But this year, the streak finally comes to an end.

There were high expectations for Gonzaga this season, however it struggled against high-caliber teams. The Bulldogs will be a No. 8 seed and face Georgia, which really caught fire at the end of the year. If Gonzaga can get past the first round, likely waiting will be No. 1 seed Houston. The Cougars play elite defense that can limit Gonzaga’s high-scoring offense, and for the first time in a decade, the Zags head home early.

5. Rick Pitino and John Calipari get into a heated spat

It’s the second-round matchup everyone wants. St. John’s and Arkansas means Rick Pitino vs. John Calipari. There’s some history between the two coaches, and while they have seemed amicable in recent years, the gloves come off in March Madness. It will be an intense matchup between the Razorbacks and Red Storm with two coaches getting into a verbal argument during the game or someone calls out the other in the postgame press conference. Wherever and whenever it happens, it will make for some great television.

6. Chaos in the South region

If you’re looking for a region that just goes off the rails, look no further than the South Region. There are plenty of upset candidates residing in that part of the bracket with teams like UC San Diego, Yale, New Mexico and the San Diego State-North Carolina winner all very capable of going on runs. With so many possible Cinderella options, the South region gets turned upside down with at least three teams seeded nine or lower in the Sweet 16.

7. The star of the NCAA Tournament? Brigham Young’s Richie Saunders

Every year there’s a player that becomes a household name among hoops fans. This time it will be BYU star Richie Saunders. The Cougars enter the tournament as one of the country’s hottest teams. During a nine-game win streak, Saunders averaged 18.9 points per game and shot at least 50% from the field in seven of the games. He carries his strong finish into the tournament and leads BYU into a deep run that gets it close to the Final Four.

8. Cinderella run leads to Indiana’s new coach

Whatever team goes on a Cinderella run this year, hope you enjoyed having your head coach. Desperately looking for a coach to bring success back to Bloomington, Indiana jumps at the chance to hire one of the March coaching success stories. The Hoosiers throw a bunch of money at the top candidate to pry them away from the position less than a week after their tournament runs, hoping it can have the same type of run in 2026.

9. Auburn doesn’t win national championship, or even make Final Four

Last year, Connecticut broke a streak of 15 consecutive tournaments where the top overall seed failed to win the national title. This year, Auburn is the top seed by comfortably winning the SEC regular-season title and accumulating 16 Quad 1 wins. The resume certainly looks like a national championship team.

However, Auburn has struggled recently. Teams finally figured out how to attack the Tigers and they lost three of their last four games. Auburn is a great team that looked like the title favorite for much of the season, but things don’t look as good as they did last month. The Tigers survive the first weekend but are unable to advance to the Final Four.

10. No SEC national champion

In case you haven’t heard, the SEC was by far the top of college basketball. Not only was it strong from top to bottom, but it boasted some of the best national championship contenders in the country. It has seemed inevitable the national champion would hail from the Southeast.

Except it won’t happen. After hearing all year about how great it is, the SEC is only able to get one − maybe two − teams in the Final Four, and neither are able to have their one shining moment. SEC fans will try to spin it as it wasn’t able to win the title because it got fatigued from playing in such a deep conference, but it won’t take away from the fact the league did not finish on top as many people predicted. This year’s champion just won’t mean more.