JUPITER, Fla. — An expected farewell has instead become a tired, circuitous and increasingly awkward goodbye. And for the St. Louis Cardinals, an organizational reset has instead left them in the strangest position as they aim for a changing of the guard in their executive branch.
Stuck in the middle, with a franchise player they can’t get rid of.
Thursday, Day 2 of spring training came and went and Nolan Arenado was still a Cardinal, with the likelihood lessening that outgoing president of baseball operations John Mozeliak can rid the club of his three years and $74 million remaining on his contract – at least with any dispatch.
Less than 24 hours after Alex Bregman’s stunning acceptance of a three-year, $120 million offer from the Boston Red Sox late Wednesday night, Mozeliak acknowledged it was likelier than not that Arenado will not only report to camp but stick on the Cardinals’ roster, even as he’ll attempt to fulfill his desire to be traded.
And that leaves the Cardinals in a tight spot.
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From manager Oliver Marmol to the rank-and-file members of the clubhouse, there is an avowed desire to tune out external developments and focus on the players here, or at least theoretically here.
And it’s more difficult to block out the proverbial noise when it directly impacts the beloved All-Star with the corner locker at Roger Dean Stadium, along with roughly four to six players who’d be affected by his departure – or return.
Mozeliak, charged with balancing payroll and pivoting toward a franchise transition, was foiled in December when Arenado turned down a trade to the Houston Astros. Now, he says it’s likely a deal might have to emerge from a group outside of Arenado’s five preferred destinations.
Yet perhaps Mozeliak has stumbled upon a motto for your 2025 Cardinals: Less miserable than it could’ve been.
‘I think it will be a little less awkward than I thought,’ Mozeliak said of an unexpected reunion between Arenado and the Cardinals. ‘He knows that we tried. He knows we had a deal that he didn’t accept. I’m not bitter. I don’t’ think he’ll be bitter. I think from a team standpoint, as a group, we can make this work.
‘Is it the perfect outcome? No. Could it have been much worse? Sure.’
Meanwhile, Cardinals camp continues apace, with the first full workout on Monday and Arenado expected to arrive sometime over the weekend, says Mozeliak.
With every passing day until a resolution – a deal, an all-clear, anything – the Cardinals’ camp will increasingly be defined by the man who definitely, probably, maybe not is a goner.
“He’s a pretty upbeat guy, so I think he’ll be happy no matter what. He’s always got a smile on his face,” veteran starter Miles Mikolas tells USA TODAY Sports. “But if there’s anyone I want playing third base when I’m on the mound, it’s him. I don’t think any pitcher will tell you different.
“That kind of defense, that kind of leadership – there’s nobody else you want at third base. If for some reason he’s not there, it’ll be sad, but I know we’ve got guys capable of holding that position down as well.
“But I’ve come to really enjoy watching him play, and hopefully I get another season of that.”
Says outfielder Lars Nootbaar of an unlikely Arenado reunion: “For me, I’ll be excited. Because we get Nolan back. He’s my boy. He’s a lot of guys’ boy here. I’m excited to see him. I think he’s excited to see a lot of us, too.
“If he goes somewhere else, so be it. But at the end of the day, if he ends up here, we’re all going to be excited about it.”
Yet even the tease of an Arenado reunion was so far away from what the Cardinals telegraphed months ago.
Moving forward, using all their depth
It’s been five years since the Cardinals have advanced past the National League Division Series, 12 years since they reached the World Series, 14 since they won it. Yet despite their pedigree, the Cardinals never acted like more than a middle- or upper-middle class team, relying on a flow of player development to keep things stocked.
So after the Cardinals followed up their first last-place appearance since 1990 with an 83-79 campaign in 2024, the club announced a “reset,” as Mozeliak put it: He’d be handing over the reigns as baseball chief to former Boston Red Sox No. 1 Chaim Bloom.
Seemed sensical. While the Red Sox’s big league product withered under his watch, Bloom put together a developmental arm that left the club loaded with prospects after he was fired following the 2023 season.
Yet the Arenado saga has slowed that process. What’s left is a club with high-priced veterans like starter Sonny Gray and catcher-turned-DH Willson Contreras and some versatile, less-decorated pieces.
“That’s the way they made it seem like last year, that we’d make these dramatic changes, have one of the youngest rosters in the league, and we really haven’t done anything to this point,” says closer Ryan Helsley, who is entering his final year before free agency. “It’s pretty crazy to see, but we’ve got guys like Sonny and Willson who say they want to be here and help us win.
“It helps to have a few ‘old guys’ to help the younger ones show them the ropes.”
And it’s not like Mozeliak is averse to Arenado on the roster, even if it’s a significant drag on his ability to remake the franchise.
“He does make us a better team, if he’s Nolan, if he’s happy,’ says Mozeliak. ‘If the club’s doing really well, maybe he finds happiness here. Maybe he doesn’t. I don’t think either of us can speak to that until we really know.
‘We approached the offseason with a plan to do something with him. We tried. Here we are..”
Arenado had a list of five teams – Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Padres, and Red Sox – to which he’d accept a trade. He nixed the Astros opportunity. Now, the third-base derby propelled Bregman to Boston – and Mozeliak says Arenado’s horizons must expand for a deal to get done.
‘I think it would have to open up a little more,’ he says. ‘I think we’ve exhausted the others.’
Will Cardinals trade Arenado?
That “reset” hasn’t yet arrived. And the Cardinals still have a residence in the NL Central, where 80-something wins just might win the division.
Sure, this isn’t the Arenado of 10-time Gold Glove, eight-time All-Star vintage. But he was still good enough for 2.5 WAR a year ago, even if his bat was simply league-average. And his skill set has drawn the attention of every contender with even a hint of need at third base – the Astros, Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Blue Jays and more.
Naturally, the ripple effect is most profound in Jupiter. A world without Arenado means shifting parts involving infielders Brendan Donovan and Nolan Gorman, with a downstream effect on the outfield, as well.
Donovan, a versatile 2.6-win player a year ago, said Thursday he’s ready to play wherever, which was music to manager Oliver Marmol’s ears.
“He’s a stud, man,” says Marmol. “It’s always good when a player says he’ll do what’s best for the team and we have a lot of guys like that. For him to articulate that is awesome.
“We’ll have more clarity to that as camp goes.”
Yeah, about that: Marmol says the watchword has been communication – overcommunication, even, so that players, as Marmol put it, “aren’t reading about it, they’re hearing about it, from me or Mo.”
To that end, Mozeliak phoned Helsley’s representatives last fall to let them know that, even though the closer was entering his final year before free agency, the Cardinals would not actively shop him.
Yet there were no guarantees should the Cardinals receive an offer they can’t refuse.
“That doesn’t mean it’s a no,” says Helsley, “that there’s a small chance if they get an opportunity they like and feel like could help the team.
“But I feel like, for me, you just have to tune it out.”
That mentality could be even more necessary come summer, when Helsley, Mikolas and starter Erick Fedde, all free agents to be, could look plenty marketable to contenders.
Along with their third baseman.
Then again, there’s always the chance the Cardinals mess around and win a few games, loiter on the verge of contention, further re-define what “reset” means.
‘If we see a little more offense out of this club, we do think we’ll surprise some people,’ says Mozeliak, whose club finished 22nd in runs scored. ‘We played a lot of one-run games last year. A lot of stress.’
Contending would more closely resemble the Cardinal way, such as it is now. Even if most of the roster awaits something resembling resolution with their most significant player.
“When you get drafted to the Cardinals and have that logo on your uniform, you know what’s expected of you,” says Helsley. “Even though we haven’t been to the pinnacle of where we want to be in the last 14 years, I don’t think the expectation changes regardless of who’s in this clubhouse.
“That’s always a given with Cardinals baseball”
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