DUNEDIN, Fla. — In the end, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Toronto Blue Jays had vastly different ideas on the value of a young slugger, the appropriate contract to award a player still one year away from free agency and the import of retaining a star who’s only known one baseball home.

And now, Guerrero is just 162 games from hitting the free agent market and learning just how much other clubs might want him.

Guerrero, the Toronto Blue Jays’ 25-year-old superstar slugger, failed to reach agreement on a contract extension by the Monday night deadline he’d set in advance of spring training, Guerrero said Tuesday morning. The talks extended past the 9 p.m. ET deadline to around 10:30, but ultimately the club and Guerrero failed to come to terms.

And with that, Guerrero, a Blue Jay since he was 16 years old, is prepared to hit the market next winter, knowing that 26-year-olds like him get paid like no other free agents – young, in their prime and with franchise-changing ability.

The sides weren’t particularly close, Guerrero said, the Blue Jays sticking to their value and his camp his, likely something well north of $400 million given that Juan Soto reset the bar for marquee free agents with a 15-year, $765 million deal this past winter.

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Guerrero said Soto’s contract didn’t impact his mindset. Yet he proudly notes that he has a number in mind – and the Blue Jays came nowhere near it.

‘We didn’t get to an agreement,’ Guerrero says, through club translator Hector Lebron, ‘and now they’re going to have to compete with 29 other teams.’

Guerrero was the 2021 American League MVP runner-up, a four-time All-Star and has a .863 career OPS, upping his value after a 30-homer, .940 campaign in 2024. He debuted as a 20-year-old in 2019, and in hitting the market at 26 joins Soto, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper as young players in their prime ready to cash in.

‘Listen, I’m a man already. I’m 25 years old, ready to understand the business and how it goes,’ Guerrero, who turns 26 next month, said Tuesday morning before the Blue Jays’ first full-squad workout. ‘But conversations went well, negotiations were calm. At the end of the day, we just didn’t get an agreement.

‘I know my value. I’m going to stick with it.’

And the Blue Jays’ recent track record has proven that rarely ends well in Toronto.

They were rebuffed in efforts to sign Soto this winter and Shohei Ohtani after the 2023 season. This time, though, it was their own guy, signed out of the Dominican Republic, a franchise cornerstone alongside fellow pending free agent Bo Bichette, and a player to which fans in Canada have long been attached.

Yet Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins sounded similar themes of fiscal responsibility that have marked their inability to extend Guerrero in the past. In short: Guerrero wants market-value money and the Blue Jays are not willing to be irrational relative to their valuations.

Next winter, Guerrero and Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker will easily be the best position players on the open market.

‘How you come up with a value and are willing to reach certain thresholds, you have to stay disciplined, to the fact that we’re running a business,’ Atkins said Tuesday morning. ‘The offers we made for Vlad would’ve been record-setting and made him one of the highest-paid players in the game.’

To be clear, Atkins meant a Blue Jays franchise record, which is a mere $150 million they gave outfielder George Springer, an overpay at the time and nowhere near what a premier free agent might command in this market.

In a sense, Guerrero and the Blue Jays were operating on different tracks: Guerrero eyeing what he could and believes will command on the market next winter, and the franchise treating the negotiations as they are: Bargaining with a player still one year shy of free agency.

Club president Mark Shapiro cited contracts signed by Mookie Betts (12 years, $365 million with the Dodgers a year before free agency in 2020) and Jose Ramirez (seven years, $141 million in April 2022, two years before free agency) as relevant data points.

“When you go into a negotiation, each side has a rationale for a number. In this case we couldn’t align on a common number that shared risk,” says Shapiro. “Both sides take some on. A decision from both parties couldn’t be found.

“There’s no such thing as close or not close. There’s done or not done.”

Shapiro insisted the Blue Jays did include subjective factors such as emotion, fan sentiment and the import of retaining a legacy player. Club chairman Edward Rogers spoke to Guerrero and was involved in talks.

And in the Ohtani-Soto-Yoshinobu Yamamoto realm, he insists that the club will “keep pounding and eventually we’ll get one of those guys,” and that they were within a group of just three to five teams in those derbies.

Yet that also indicates a willingness to swim in more irrational waters – the Blue Jays offered the same $700 million, heavily-deferred package Ohtani accepted from the Dodgers – for external players but not one of their own just a year from free agency.

That doesn’t do Guerrero any good right now. His platform season has now transitioned from the Tampa-area gym where he works out in winter to the Jays’ sprawling complex to the west, and human nature dictates he’ll be even more fired up for 2025.

“It’s a great motivation right now, for me to wake up every day and thinking about working out harder than before and trying to put up good numbers, stay healthy and try to go to the playoffs,” he says. “I love this city.

“I love the fans, but at the end of the day, it’s business. I’ll do anything, everything I can to stay here. I love it here. I want to be here. But it’s business and I want to take care of that, too.”

The Blue Jays will also harvest nearly seven full seasons from Guerrero, sending him to the minor leagues in April 2019 to ensure he didn’t reach free agency until after 2025, unlike elite 2019 rookies like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Pete Alonso, who both started that year on the Opening Day roster.

Alonso hit free agency at 30, while Tatis’ debut set the stage for the Padres to give him a 14-year, $340 million contract several years before free agency.

The 2024 Blue Jays still have high hopes; Atkins insists Guerrero won’t be traded before the season, and it’s likely he won’t be moved at the trade deadline should the Blue Jays contend. Yet the likelihood of Toronto fulfilling both of Guerrero’s prerequisites – a market value contract and a chance to win a World Series ring that eluded his Hall of Fame father, Vladimir Guerrero – seem remote.

The clock is ticking toward that chance now.

‘A winning team. That’s what I’m going to be looking for in free agency,’ says Guerrero of his free-agent goals. ‘You guys know, my dad played a lot of years and never won a World Series.

‘And I always say, my personal goal is to win a World Series and give the ring to my dad. That’s all I’m looking for.’

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. – Two months after Juan Soto signed the largest contract in pro sports history, a $765 million December lightning strike, the enormity of his paycheck still hasn’t sunk in.

“I’m still thinking about it and everything. It’s unbelievable,” Soto said Sunday upon reporting to New York Mets camp, where he’ll winter well past his 40th birthday.

“I’m really happy to know where I’m going to be for the next 15 years. Crazy. In a good way.”

A day later, Pete Alonso checked in, renewed acquaintances with Mets teammates and mused about his own winter free agent foray, which did not end until less than a week ago, when he signed a two-year, $54 million deal that he can terminate after one season.

“I definitely feel like I pushed the market forward for me… Pushing the market forward for 30-year-old first basemen,” says Alonso.

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“For me, that’s a win.”

A more modest winter, you might say.

Soto and Alonso were the alpha and omega of the Mets’ offseason, the focal points of a $1 billion outlay for eight players. It ended with the game’s premier free agent getting tied to the club through the next decade – and their previous franchise face confronting some harsh realities about his own market.

Together, they are tasked with helping the Mets win six more games than they did last year – when a surprise run to the National League Championship Series ended in defeat to the eventual champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Those “OMG Mets” have given way to a Soto-infused borderline superteam – though the franchise stalwart nearly wasn’t a part of it. Alonso can opt out of his contract after one season, essentially a prove-it year after his production slipped in the two years before he became a free agent.

Yet the ever-chipper Alonso showed no bitterness Monday as his second Mets go-round commenced.

He dropped the word “stoked” four times in a 20-minute press conference. He appreciated the outreach from teammates Brandon Nimmo, Jesse Winker and Ryne Stanek, and the exhortations of workout buddy Sean Manaea saying, “Dude, you have to come back.”

And when his free agent market failed to develop, remembering the vibes of 2024 – when Alonso saved their season with a ninth-inning wild-card clinching home run – didn’t hurt.

“Making a run like that in ’24 you realize how much has to go in to getting there,” says Alonso. “That’s addicting. That playoff feeling, playing that high-leverage baseball – that’s what it’s all about.

“That is the most addicting feeling I’ve ever had on a baseball field. It’s motivation to get back and get better.”

Now, he is joining forces with Soto, and while their courtships were vastly different, the human element was crucial for both.

From exhausting to elated

If the Soto pursuit was a feverish process that ended in the Mets stealing him from the crosstown Yankees for just $15 million more, the Alonso slog was a staring match that owner Steve Cohen called “exhausting” during a January fan festival.

Yet both negotiations weren’t closed until Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns flew to Florida for meetings with both players, two months and hundreds of millions of dollars apart.

The Soto soiree only added stress for Cohen and Stearns in the endgame of high-stakes negotiations, the Mets pleasantly stunned when the 26-year-old slugger bound for the Hall of Fame said yes to them.

The Alonso summit allayed fears on the other side of the table.

Alonso is just 27 home runs from passing Darryl Strawberry atop the Mets’ all-time home run list. It is the only home he’s known in baseball, and after hitting 130 home runs in his first three full seasons, it appeared his free agency would be a geyser of cash.

So much so that he turned down a $158 million offer in 2023, a season and a half before free agency.

Little did Alonso that his last two seasons before freedom would be his worst: A .217 batting average in 2023, an adjusted OPS of 123 in each season, and an OPS that fell below .800 (.788) for the first time in his career.

Combine that with the Polar Bear’s likelihood he’d be more a defensive liability going forward, and it gave suitors pause.

Alonso swallowed hard and realized his plight was certainly part unpredictive market forces, but also of his own doing.

“I couldn’t have expected anything mega-long because I didn’t have my best year in ’23 or last year. The two years stacked up didn’t play to my potential,” he says. “You can’t expect to have a 10-year deal when I didn’t necessarily have my best two years in ’23 and ’24.

“Granted, definitely some positives. Definitely did a lot of cool things.”

Most notably his go-ahead home run off Devin Williams in the ninth inning of the decisive wild-card game at Milwaukee last October. The Mets stunned the Phillies and took the Dodgers to six games before the merry gang got broken up.

Yet Cohen was not to get swept up in the emotion of that big blast and magic run and hand over a blank check. At least not to anyone not named Soto.

They reeled in the generational slugger and then re-signed Manaea for $75 million, signed starters Clay Holmes and Frankie Montas and relievers A.J. Minter and Ryne Stanek, even re-upped Winker for the outfield.

Wither Pete?

Well, if the Soto pursuit was irrational exuberance, the Alonso negotiations were cold pragmatism. Cohen and Stearns wisely let the market come back to them.

“The qualifying offer definitely had an impact,” Alonso said of the draft-pick compensation that teams are loathe to give up for free agents that aren’t in the Soto stratosophere.

“That’s one thing I didn’t really expect. Guys that have had it, around age 30 – (Carlos) Correa, (Matt) Chapman, (Blake) Snell, (Alex) Bregman, a couple other guys had QO issues during free agency.”

The Mets would not have to sacrifice a draft pick to retain their own free agent, making a reunion sensible. Yet when Cohen let loose the “exhausting” remarks, a summit was necessary. Owner and GM decamped for Florida, giving Alonso the full free agent treatment as if he were a new recruit: A peek behind the organizational curtain, with grand plans for the future revealed.

The gesture went a long way toward Alonso thinking he might be a part of it.

“I respect that so much and I appreciate meeting people face to face, hearing their perspective and voicing mine,” says Alonso. “It was like a meeting of the minds. Just people talking ball.

“I’m happy (Cohen) decided to come down and we could talk in person. These people have believed in me from Day 1. And that means something.”

‘You gotta play’

Now, Alonso finds himself in arguably the best position in baseball: Hitting behind or around Soto. Just ask Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton how that worked out for them last year.

For Alonso, he hopes to pair that cushy spot in the lineup with swing adjustments that help him avoid the bad habits he fell into last year. Oddly enough, a banner season might make him more likely to become an ex-Met.

He won’t be subject to the qualifying offer next season, which, paired with a strong campaign, would give him a strong market, perhaps one that launches him into the nine-figure contractual galaxy.

Soto wouldn’t mind if the union went deeper than that.

“He’s one of the best pure power hitters in the league,” says Soto. “We’re trying to have some of that protection. It’s great to have him over here and it’s huge for the team.”

And fret not for Alonso’s bank account. He made $20.5 million in his final year of arbitration and his current deal has a frontloaded $30 million salary this year, driving his net career earnings north of $70 million.

Should he spray the ball into the Citi Field seats as both parties know he can, perhaps the Mets will see fit to make Alonso’s stay permanent.

“That would be fantastic,” says Alonso. “I’ve had a great first six seasons. People have been so receptive. This has been home. This is such a great organization

“I don’t regret it because every single step of the way in my career – high school, college, all of my six years here, you bet on yourself every year. You gotta play.”

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Team USA lost its first game of the 4 Nations Face-Off on Monday night and also lost a key forward.

Sweden rallied from an early 1-0 deficit to defeat the short-handed Americans 2-1 and pick up its first win of the tournament. It was also the USA’s first loss.

Gustav Nyquist and Jesper Bratt scored in the first period after Chris Kreider gave the USA a 1-0 lead 35 seconds into the game. Samuel Ersson made the lead stand up with 32 saves.

The game didn’t matter because a USA-Canada final had already been determined when the Canadians beat Finland in regulation earlier in the day.

But the USA lost Brady Tkachuk after he slid hard into the net. He went to the dressing room, played one shift after returning then was ruled out in the second period for ‘precautionary reasons.’

The Americans, who opened the tournament 2-0, are dealing with injury issues. Matthew Tkachuk missed the game with a lower-body injury, Captain Auston Matthews was a late scratch and defenseman Charlie McAvoy also sat out.

The USA hopes to be healthier when it plays Canada in the championship game on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN).

Here is a recap and highlights from Monday’s USA-Sweden and Canada-Finland games:

USA-CANADA FINAL: What to know | Odds

What USA coach Mike Sullivan said about injuries

USA coach Mike Sullivan gave an update on Brady Tkachuk and other injured players during his postgame news conference.

‘We held him out more for precautionary reasons at that point,’ USA coach Mike Sullivan told reporters about Brady Tkachuk’s lower-body injury. ‘I haven’t gotten an update to this point after the game yet, but we’ll see how it responds, but I don’t anticipate it being an issue.’

He also said he hoped to have more answers on Auston Matthews’ and Charlie McAvoy’s upper-body injuries on Tuesday.

The Boston Globe reported that McAvoy was admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital with his injury.

Sweden vs. USA highlights

Final score: Sweden 2, USA 1

The USA can’t connect with their goalie pulled and Sweden pulls out a 2-1 victory for their first win of the tournament. The USA is 2-1 in the round robin and finished with a tournament-best six points.

USA pulls goalie

Jake Oettinger is pulled for an extra skater. USA takes a timeout. Sweden ices the puck with 1:08 left.

Brock Nelson stopped

Brock Nelson has a breakaway but Samuel Ersson gets his blocker on Nelson’s shot.

USA on power play

Erik Karlsson high-sticks Jake Guentzel after Jack Hughes gets a couple chances in close. Sweden kills off the penalty as Gustav Forsling breaks up a pass on a 2-on-1 effort.

Big check by Jack Eichel

Jack Eichel lays his shoulder into Leo Carlsson’s shoulder and the Anaheim Ducks forward’s helmet goes flying.

Third period underway

USA takes a quick penalty (Adam Fox for cross-checking) but kills it off. Sweden is 0-for-3 on the power play.

End of second: Sweden 2, USA 1

No scoring in the period and no Brady Tkachuk. The Team USA forward was hurt in the first period and didn’t return. Vincent Trocheck did play after leaving in the first. Swedish goalie Samuel Ersson, an unexpected starter because of Linus Ullmark’s illness, has 20 saves through two periods.

USA on the power play

Filip Forsberg is called for slashing Kyle Connor. Jack Eichel hits the post and Sweden kills it off.

Brock Nelson robbed

Brock Nelson is all alone in front, but Samuel Ersson makes a big save. Nelson knocks over the goalie afterward.

Brady Tkachuk ruled out of game

Brady Tkachuk, who slid hard into the net in the first period, won’t return to the game. He went to the dressing room and skated one short shift after returning.

Sweden on the power play

Noah Hanifin is called for hooking Viktor Arvidsson. USA kills it off.

Second period underway

Brady Tkachuk is not on the bench. Vincent Trocheck has returned.

End of first: Sweden 2, USA 1

If the goal of the USA was to improve to 3-0 and stay healthy, it’s not a good start. The start looked great at first because Chris Kreider scored 35 seconds into his first game of the tournament. But Gustav Nyquist and Jesper Bratt gave Sweden the lead before the period ended. Worse news: Brady Tkachuk appears to be hurt, and Vincent Trocheck left the game late in the period. The USA started the game with 11 forwards, so they could be really short now depending on their availability in the second period.

USA-Sweden score: Jesper Bratt gets goal

Jesper Bratt takes a pass from William Nylander and rips a shot past a screened Jake Oettinger. Great release. Sweden 2, USA 1

Brady Tkachuk returns to the game

Brady Tkachuk returned to the bench and got in the game. His shot is stopped by Samuel Ersson and Tkachuk immediately skates to the bench. He’s still there.

USA-Sweden score: Gustav Nyquist ties it up

Gustav Nyquist beats Jake Oettinger with a deflection of an Erik Karlsson shot to tie the game. USA 1, Sweden 1

Sweden on the power play

Matt Boldy is called for interference six seconds after the USA’s power play ends. The Americans kill it off.

USA on the power play

Elias Lindholm is called for delay of game. Sweden kills it off.

Brady Tkachuk not on the bench

He lost his balance, slid into the net and grimaced when he got up. He took another shift, but TNT reports that he is not on the bench.

Brady Tkachuk throws big hits

Brady Tkachuk hasn’t fought early like he did against Canada. But he has thrown big hits on Lucas Raymond and Leo Carlsson.

USA-Sweden score: Chris Kreider gets goal

Chris Kreider scores 35 seconds into the game on a rebound of a Zach Werenski shot. Jack Eichel gets the secondary assist. Kreider and Eichel played college hockey in Boston. USA 1, Sweden 0

Game underway

Can the USA finish 3-0 in the round robin at the 4 Nations?

How to watch United States vs. Sweden 4 Nations Face-Off game

Date: Feb. 17

Time: 8 p.m. ET

TV: TNT, truTV

Streaming: Sling and MAX

USA, Sweden starters

USA: Forwards Jack Eichel, Brady Tkachuk and Chris Kreider; defensemen Zach Werenski and Noah Hanifin; goalie Jake Oettinger

Sweden: Forwards Elias Lindholm, Lucas Raymond and Adrian Kempe; defenseman Erik Karlsson and Gustav Forsling; goalie Samuel Ersson

Matthew Tkachuk, Auston Matthews, Charlie McAvoy and Connor Hellebuyck are the U.S. scratches.

Rickard Rakell, Mika Zibanejad and Linus Ullmark are Sweden’s scratches.

No Auston Matthews for Team USA

Team USA captain Auston Matthew is dealing with upper-body soreness, so he won’t play, per The Athletic. The USA will go one man short with 11 forwards and six defensemen.

Team USA lineup changes

According to NHL.com, forward Chris Kreider will go in the lineup for Matthew Tkachuk (lower-body injury). Defenseman Jake Sanderson will sub in for Charlie McAvoy (upper body). Kreider and Sanderson are making their tournament debuts. Jeremy Swayman will back up Jake Oettinger as No. 1 goalie

Report: Samuel Ersson to start in net for Sweden

Swedish publication Aftonbladet says Linus Ullmark is ill so Samuel Ersson will get the start. The Philadelphia Flyers goalie will be making his first appearance. He was an injury replacement for Jacob Markstrom.

Canada vs. Finland highlights

Final score: Canada 5, Finland 3

There will be a rematch of the high-intensity USA-Canada game in the 4 Nations Face-Off final.

Canada survived a late scare to defeat Finland 5-3 in Monday’s round-robin finale and give it five points in the tournament. The Canadians hold the tiebreaker against Sweden, so they will face the Americans on Thursday in the championship game.

The United States beat Canada 3-1 in Saturday’s game, which featured three fights in the first nine seconds of the first period.

Canada rebounded Monday with a big game from its stars after shuffling its lines. Nathan MacKinnon scored twice, Connor McDavid had a goal and assist, and Sam Reinhart had three assists. Sidney Crosby set up MacKinnon’s second goal and had a key goal.

Finland scored three times in the last seven minutes, including two quick goals by Mikael Granlund, to cut the deficit to 4-3. Crosby put the game away with an empty-netter.

Canada-Finland score: Sidney Crosby gets empty-netter

That relieves the pressure on Canada. It’s Crosby’s second point of the game and first goal of the tournament to go along with four assists. Canada 5, Finland 3

Canada-Finland score: Mikael Granlund strikes again

It’s his second goal in 23 seconds. Canada 4, Finland 3

Canada-Finland score: Mikael Granlund gets goal

Mikael Granlund scores with 2:40 left. Canada 4, Finland 2

Aleksander Barkov blocks Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon shoots for the empty net for a hat trick but Aleksander Barkov blocks the attempt.

Finland pulls its goalie

Juuse Saros goes to the bench for an extra skater.

Canada-Finland score: Finland gets on board

Good passing by Finland on a cycle. Esa Lindell ends up with the puck and beats Jordan Binnington with a shot off the far post with 6:41 left. Canada 4, Finland 1

Midway through the third period

Still 4-0 Canada. Not much sustained attack from either side. Juuse Saros took a shot off the mask but is fine.

Third period underway

Canada needs to hold this lead to advance to the final.

End of second: Canada 4, Finland 0

Canada knocked Finland goalie Kevin Lankinen out of the game with a Nathan MacKinnon goal early in the second period. Juuse Saros has stopped all six shots he has faced, but Finland needs to generate more on offense. They had a couple shots on the power play and 12 overall in the period, but Jordan Binnington was perfect again.

Finland goes on power play

It’s the first penalty of the game as Devon Toews slashes Joel Armia. With 4:35 left in the second period, Finland needs to connect here. It doesn’t as Canada kills it off.

Juuse Saros stops Sidney Crosby

Finland goalie Juuse Saros gets his first big chance against since entering the game. He stops Canada captain Sidney Crosby from in close. Still 4-0 Canada.

Finland makes goalie change: Juuse Saros in

Juuse Saros is the net for the first time since losing 6-1 to the USA in the opener. Kevin Lankinen gave four goals on 13 shots.

Canada-Finland score: Nathan MacKinnon gets goal

Nathan MacKinnon scores his second goal of the game. Sidney Crosby makes a quick pass to MacKinnon after getting the puck from Sam Reinhart. That’s two points now for MacKinnon, Reinhart and Connor McDavid in the game. Canada 4, Finland 0

Second period underway

Kevin Lankinen remains in net for Team Finland.

End of first period: Canada 3, Finland 0

Canada shuffled its lines to get its offense moving and so far it’s working. Connor McDavid has a goal and an assist. Brayden Point, who was moved up to McDavid’s line, has a goal. Nathan MacKinnon has scored. Jordan Binnington has faced only five shots but looks solid. Cale Makar, who has returned from an illness, has played more than eight minutes. If Canada holds the lead, it goes to the final.

Canada-Finland score: Brayden Point gets goal

Brayden Point scores on a rebound of a Travis Sanheim shot to make it 3-0 at 13:02. Connor McDavid started the rush and picks up his second point of the game. Canada 3, Finland 0

Canada goalie Jordan Binnington solid early on

Canada needs a big game from Jordan Binnington to advance. He started with a strong shoulder save on Mikael Granlund and looks good so far.

Canada-Finland score: Nathan MacKinnon gets goal

Nathan MacKinnon uses his speed to get in alone on Kevin Lankinen after a pass from Sam Reinhart. MacKinnon scores 46 seconds after Connor McDavid had given Canada the lead. Canada needed a big game from its top players and has it so far. Finland calls a timeout. Canada 2, Finland 0

Canada-Finland score: Connor McDavid gets goal

Connor McDavid takes advantage of a giveaway by Roope Hintz, circles and rips a shot past a screened Kevin Lankinen. Canada 1, Finland 0

Game underway

If a team wins in regulation, it reaches the final. Finland is the home team and gets the last line change.

Cale Makar to play, start for Team Canada

Canada defenseman Cale Makar is in the starting lineup in Monday’s game against Finland. He had missed the last game against the USA because of illness.

When is Finland vs. Canada and USA vs. Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off?

Finland and Canada play at 1 p.m. ET at Boston’s TD Garden. Sweden and the USA play at 8 p.m. ET.

How to watch Finland vs. Canada and USA vs. Sweden

Both games will be broadcast on TNT and truTV.

How to stream Finland vs. Canada and USA vs. Sweden

Projected Canada lines

Forward Seth Jarvis, defenseman Thomas Harley and goalie Sam Montembeault are the scratches.

Projected Finland lines

This lineup would mean forward Teuvo Teravainen, defenseman Juuso Valimaki and goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen would be the scratches.

Cale Makar taking pregame warmup

Canada defenseman Cale Makar is on the ice for the pregame warmup. He had missed the USA-Canada game with illness and is a game-time decision.

Jordan Binnington to start for Team Canada

St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington will get his third consecutive start for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off, per reports. He is 1-1 at the tournament with a 2.46 goals-against average and .896 save percentage.

Kevin Lankinen to start for Team Finland

Vancouver Canucks goalie Kevin Lankinen will get his consecutive start for Team Finland. He beat Sweden in the second game and has a 2.91 GAA and .875 save percentage.

Report: USA’s Matthew Tkachuk won’t play Monday

NHL.com is reporting that USA forward Matthew Tkachuk won’t play against Sweden because of a lower-body injury. Tkachuk played only three shifts in the third period Saturday and spent the rest of the period on the bench.

Jake Oettinger will start for Team USA vs. Team Sweden

4 Nations Face-Off schedule, TV

(Times p.m. ET)

Wednesday, Feb. 12:  Canada 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Thursday, Feb. 13: USA 6, Finland 1
Saturday, Feb. 15: Finland 4, Sweden 3 (OT)
Saturday, Feb. 15: USA 3, Canada 1
Monday, Feb. 17: Canada 5, Finland 3
Monday, Feb. 17: Sweden 2, USA 1
Thursday, Feb. 20: USA vs. Canada, championship game at Boston, 8, ESPN

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College football’s administrative heavyweights are meeting in New Orleans beginning Wednesday, and it should come as no surprise where this is headed. 

Revenue generation. 

Or, this quick summation from universities to players: You want pay for play? We’re getting more games.

Not just an expansion of the College Football Playoff, which currently stands at 12 teams and could move to as many as 16. But an expansion of the championship weekend — which could evolve into a play-in week for the playoff. 

Forget about CFP format. This is about financial survival.

One SEC athletic director, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the process, gave a rough outline of what championship weekend could look like to USA TODAY Sports. The Big Ten is also considering a similar structure.

● The top two seeds play in the conference championship game.

● The next six teams – determined by conference tiebreakers, if needed – will play in a No. 3 vs. No. 8, No. 4 vs. No. 7 and No. 5 vs. No. 6 format.

● The winners of those four games would move to the playoff. The losers would be available for at-large selections. 

The obvious wrinkle: The loser of the championship game, the No. 2 team in the league, isn’t guaranteed a spot in the College Football Playoff. 

But university presidents in the SEC don’t want to diminish winning the conference championship, nor do they want to minimize a high-demand television game that will command great interest in future media rights negotiations ― potentially as a stand alone game.

If the proposed format was set for 2024, Georgia and Texas would’ve played in the SEC championship game, with the loser needing an at-large bid to the CFP (just like the current setup). 

PLAYOFF PICKS: Projecting next year’s field of 12 with some surprises

LOOKING AHEAD: Our way-too-early college football Top 25 for 2025

The remaining extended games: Mississippi at Tennessee, Texas A&M at Alabama and South Carolina at LSU, with the winners advancing to a 14- or 16-team College Football Playoff. 

In an model, Oregon and Penn State would’ve played in the championship game, and the remaining CFP play-in games would’ve been Minnesota at Indiana, Michigan at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois. 

More games equals more revenue from media rights holders, and that currently seems like the safest move to offset losing as much as $20 million annually in pay for play funds from each school’s media rights earnings. Schools can spend as much as $20 million on player salaries (for all sports, not just football), but aren’t required to commit to that number.

University presidents don’t want to invite private equity into their sports programs, and expanding football – and more than likely the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments, and College World Series baseball and softball tournaments – is the path of least resistance.

Just how potentially damaging to athletic departments is the $20 million pay-for-play budget? The SEC recently announced revenue sharing for the 2023-24 academic year, and that each school would receive $52.5 million from media rights revenue and bowl and NCAA tournament bonuses.

The $20 million revenue-sharing pool set to begin in the fall of 2025 is nearly 40 percent of each school’s media rights haul. That’s a staggering number for universities that have since paid nothing.

For the remaining two power conferences, the numbers are bleaker: ACC (an estimated $40 million payout per team) and Big 12 ($35 million) universities would spend at or more than 50 percent of each school’s media rights revenue.

The ACC, like the SEC and Big Ten, has gamed multiple formats to its championship weekend, and the Big 12 will do something similar if momentum turns that way. That’s potentially 16 games among power conferences for a weekend that now has four.  

The 2026 CFP format more than likely will move to 14 teams, but the Big Ten has been leading a push for 16 teams. And the SEC isn’t exactly against it, because any expansion will likely include as many as four automatic qualifying spots each for the Big Ten and SEC. 

Unlike the first CFP contract (which ends with the 2025 season), the SEC and Big Ten won’t need a unanimous vote from the Bowl Subdivision conferences and Notre Dame to change the format. Beginning with the 2026 contract, there are some within the industry who believe the Big Ten and SEC won’t even need a majority.

They’ll simply need to agree with each other to initiate change.

All media rights deals with the four power conferences have look-ins within the structure of the contracts that allow for increased revenue with increased high market value games. Multiple industry sources told USA TODAY Sports in September that the SEC and Big Ten are also in the early stages of expanding regular-season scheduling between the two super conferences in an effort to increase revenue. 

So while they’ll meet this week and discuss the format for the new CFP contract that begins in 2026, there’s little doubt this is much more than the number of teams, the number of automatic qualifiers, seeding and campus-site games. 

This is about finding a way to keep athletic departments afloat amid drastic financial change on the near horizon.

This is about financial survival.

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X @MattHayesCFB.