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The Treasury Department announced this week that it had recouped more than $31 million in fraud and improper payments to dead people during just five short months of having access to the Social Security Administration’s (SSA) federal death database. 

The Treasury Department issues billions of payments every year, including benefit payments, federally funded state-administered payments and other miscellaneous payments. Sending those funds and others by accident to people who are dead has been a long-standing problem within the federal government, according to fiscal watchdog group OpenTheBooks

In 2020, the Government Accountability Office estimated that during the first round of COVID-19 stimulus checks, $1.4 billion was sent to dead people. Across all three rounds of stimulus checks during the pandemic, nearly $3.6 billion went to dead people, according to OpenTheBooks.

The SSA is the only government agency with a database that records the deaths of U.S. citizens. In 2023, as part of an omnibus appropriations bill, Congress granted access for the Treasury Department, on a temporary basis, to have access to the database to help prevent improper payments to dead people. The temporary basis is set to expire in 2026.

‘While this should have been a no-brainer for a long time, it’s promising to see some taxpayer funds being recouped with basic communication among executive agencies,’ said John Hart, executive director of OpenTheBooks. ‘Too often the left hand just doesn’t know what the right hand is doing, and it’s resulted in trillions of dollars in improper payments.’

Hart blamed the nearly $4 billion in COVID-19 stimulus payments sent to dead people on the Internal Revenue Service’s failure to check the SSA’s death database. 

He also pointed out how, in addition to improper payments through the stimulus check program, the Small Business Administration also sent more than $3 billion more to dead people in the form of forgivable loans ‘to entities on the Treasury Department’s ‘Do Not Pay’ list.’

‘Today’s news is a step in the right direction, but there are miles to go before we break even,’ Hart said.

After news of the recovered payments was announced, Fiscal Assistant Secretary David Lebryk noted that the results were ‘just the tip of the iceberg.’

‘Congress granting permanent access to the Full Death Master File will significantly reduce fraud, improve program integrity, and better safeguard taxpayer dollars,’ he said. 

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Former President Obama wished his wife Michelle Obama a happy birthday on Friday, calling her ‘the love of my life.’ 

The former first lady, who turned 61, has largely avoided being out in public in recent weeks. She will not attend President-elect Trump’s inauguration on Monday, and was not seen at former President Jimmy Carter’s funeral last week. 

To commemorate her birthday, the former president shared a tribute to his wife on Instagram, writing, ‘You fill every room with warmth, wisdom, humor, and grace – and you look good doing it. I’m so lucky to be able to take on life’s adventures with you. Love you!’

Michelle later shared the post on X and captioned it, ‘Love you, honey!’ followed with a heart emoji and an emoji of a face blowing a kiss. 

Sources reportedly close to Michelle told People that the former first lady intends to skip Trump’s inauguration because she cannot contain her disdain for the Republican president-elect.

The former first lady repeatedly took jabs at Trump while on the campaign trail for Vice President Kamala Harris and during her speeches at the Democratic National Convention in August. In one speech at the DNC, she accused Trump of spreading ‘racist lies’ and opposing her husband’s political career because of his race.

Though she is often floated as a choice of Democratic candidate for president, the source emphasized that the former first lady also has no interest in being a public figure now that her public service has ended.

While Michelle will not be in attendance at Trump’s inauguration, former President Obama is scheduled to attend Monday’s inauguration along with former Presidents Bill Clinton, George W. Bush and their spouses.

Unconfirmed rumors swirled late last year that the Obamas’ marriage was on the rocks and that former President Obama had been involved in a romantic affair with actress Jennifer Aniston.

Aniston emphatically denied the rumors, telling late-night host Jimmy Kimmel, ‘That is absolutely untrue. … I know Michelle more than him.’ 

When reached for comment at the time, an Obama representative told Fox News Digital, ‘Stop.’ 

Fox News Digital’s Kristine Parks and Caroline Thayer contributed to this report.

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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is leading 22 other attorneys general in suing the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over a new rule that would fine the oil and natural gas sector for methane emissions that exceed a certain level. 

The GOP states are alleging the new rule, which was established in President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, is ‘arbitrary, capricious, [and] an abuse of discretion.’ The complaint against the EPA is scant on details, other than asserting the new rule is ‘unlawful’ because ‘the final rule exceeds the agency’s statutory authority.’ 

While the Supreme Court has articulated a very narrow authority on how Congress can delegate its legislative power, Steve Milloy, former Trump administration EPA transition adviser and senior fellow at the Energy and Environmental Legal Institute, said it is unclear to him how the EPA’s rule circumvents Congress. 

‘The IRA clearly says EPA is to levy a tax and prescribes the tax rate,’ Milloy told Fox News Digital, pointing to the section of the IRA’s ‘Waste Emissions Charge’ that sets a threshold for methane emissions at 25,000 metric tons. ‘I will be interested to see how the states support their claims.’ 

Nonetheless, Milloy is against the new fee on the oil and gas sector, noting methane is an ‘irrelevant greenhouse gas.’

‘The tax is pointless and will accomplish nothing except to make oil and natural gas more expensive,’ he said.

Milloy suggested the move to sue in the final days of the Biden administration is to start the process for the plaintiffs to settle with the Trump administration. According to him, this is a tactic that has been used by both sides of the green energy debate. He added that in the past, the Trump administration has sought to get rid of ‘sue and settle’ tactics.

‘Congress needs to change the law,’ Milloy said. ‘Because, let’s say that they sue and settle, well, the next administration can come back and undo it.’

Meanwhile, another forthcoming lawsuit from the Michigan Oil and Gas Association (MOGA) and the American Free Enterprise Chamber of Commerce (AMFree) has also asserted that the new rule circumvents Congress, but provided details explaining why.

‘Under Subpart W, facilities in the natural gas and petroleum supply chains must report greenhouse gas emissions if they emit 25,000 metric tons or more of carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions each year,’ the second lawsuit explains. ‘For gases other than carbon dioxide, ‘equivalent’ emissions are determined by multiplying emissions by the gas’s ‘global warming potential’ (‘GWP’).’ 

Michael Buschbacher, a partner at Boyden Gray PLLC, which is representing MOGA and AmFree in their lawsuit, agreed with Milloy that it will take legislation to reverse the new methane rule, but said the purpose of their legal filings is ‘to get the most onerous mandates off the books, so the American energy industry can begin its march back to dominance under the new administration.’

‘The Biden-era environmental regulations aren’t going to magically vanish at 12:01 on Monday. It’s going to take time and legislation to unwind the mess that he has left behind,’ Buschbacher said.

The EPA declined to comment on the matter, citing the pending nature of the litigation.

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The members of the Republican National Committee, in a vote that was never in doubt, on Friday re-elected chair Michael Whatley to continue steering the national party committee. 

‘This organization has got to be the tip of the spear. And as your chairman, I promise this organization will be the tip of the spear to protect Donald Trump,’ Whatley said, as he spoke after the unanimous voice vote at the RNC’s annual meeting, which was held this year in the nation’s capital ahead of Monday’s inauguration of President-elect Trump. 

Whatley, a longtime Trump ally and a major supporter of Trump’s election integrity efforts, who was serving as RNC general counsel and chair of the North Carolina Republican Party, was named by Trump last March as chair as the former president clinched the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. Whatley succeeded longtime RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, whom Trump no longer supported.

In an exclusive interview with Fox News Digital on the sidelines of the RNC’s winter meeting, Whatley says his job going forward in the 2025 elections and 2026 midterms is straight forward.

‘It’s really critical for us to make sure that the Trump voters become Republican voters,’ Whatley told Fox News Digital on the sidelines of the RNC’s winter meeting, which is being held in the nation’s capital.

Republicans enjoyed major victories in November’s elections, with Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris to win back the White House, the GOP flipping control of the Senate from the Democrats, and holding on to their razor-thin majority in the House.

Whatley, who was interviewed on Thursday on the eve of the formal RNC chair vote, said the GOP needs ‘to cement those gains’ made in the 2024 elections.

‘We’re going to go right back to the building blocks that we had during this election cycle, which is to get out the vote and protect the ballot,’ Whatley emphasized. 

The RNC chair pointed to ‘the lessons that we learned’ in the 2024 cycle ‘about going after low propensity voters, about making sure that we’re reaching out to every voter and bringing in new communities,’ which he said helped Republicans make ‘historic gains among African American voters, among Asian American voters, among Hispanic voters, young voters and women voters.’

Speaking a couple of days before the president-elect’s inauguration, Whatley emphasized that once Trump’s in the White House, ‘we’re going to go right back to the RNC. We’re going to roll up our sleeves and get to work. We’ve got a couple of governor’s races…that we’re going to be working on in ‘25.’

But Whatley said ‘everything is focused on ‘26,’ when the party will be defending its majorities in the House and Senate, ‘because that is going to determine, from an agenda perspective, whether we have two years to work with or four. And America needs us to have a four-year agenda.’

‘What we’re going to be doing is making sure that we are registering voters,’ he said. ‘We’re going to be…communicating with the folks that we need to turn out.’

Pointing to the 2024 presidential election, Whatley said ‘it’s the same fundamentals.’

But he noted that ‘it’s not just seven battleground states’ and that the 2026 contests are ‘definitely going to be a very intense midterm election cycle.’

While Democrats would disagree, Whatley described today’s GOP as ‘a common sense party… this is a party that’s going to fight for every American family and for every American community.’

Referring to former Democrats Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, whom Trump has nominated to serve in his second administration’s cabinet, Whatley touted ‘the fact that we have two former Democratic presidential candidates who are going to be serving in the president’s cabinet. That shows you that this is a commonsense agenda, a commonsense team, that we’re going to be moving forward with.’

In December, Trump asked Whatley to continue during the 2026 cycle as RNC chair.

‘I think we will be able to talk when we need to talk,’ Whatley said when asked if his lines of communication with Trump will be limited now that the president-elect is returning to the White House. ‘We’re going to support the president and his agenda. That does not change. What changes is his ability from the White House to actually implement the agenda that he’s been campaigning on.’

The winter meeting included the last appearance at the RNC by co-chair Lara Trump. The president-elect’s daughter-in-law is stepping down from her post.

She stressed that it’s crucial the RNC takes ‘the opportunity the voters have given us’ to ‘continue to expand the Republican brand.’

The elder Trump is term-limited and won’t be able to seek election again in 2028. Vice President-elect JD Vance will likely be considered the front-runner for the 2028 GOP nomination.

Whatley reiterated what he told Fox News Digital in December — that the RNC will stay neutral in the next race for the GOP nomination and that the party’s ‘got an amazing bench.’

‘You think about the talent on the Republican side of the aisle right now, our governors, our senators, our members of Congress, people that are going to be serving in this administration. I love the fact that the Republican Party is going to be set up to have a fantastic candidate going into ’28,’ he highlighted.

Unlike the DNC, which in the 2024 cycle upended the traditional presidential nominating calendar, the RNC made no major changes to their primary lineup, and kept the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary as their first two contests.

Asked about the 2028 calendar, Whatley reiterated to Fox News that ‘I have not had any conversations with anybody who wants to change the calendar, so we will wait and see what that looks like as we’re going forward. We’re at the RNC meetings this week and having a number of conversations with folks, but that is not a huge push.’

‘I don’t think that changing the calendar really helped the Democrats at all,’ Whatley argued. ‘And I think that us, making sure that we are working our system the way that we always have, is going to be critical.’

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As advancements in medical technology continue to shape the healthcare landscape, DexCom, Inc. (DXCM) stands out with its innovative continuous glucose monitoring solutions. Recent price action suggests that DXCM’s stock price has triggered a potentially new bullish run. In this article, I will examine the technical and fundamental factors behind this positive outlook and outline a risk-defined options strategy — all identified via the OptionsPlay Strategy Center within StockCharts.com.

After consolidating between $75 and $80 over the past two months, DXCM’s stock price recently broke out of this trading range with impressive relative strength.

Range Breakout. The stock’s breakout above $80 marks a decisive breakout from its consolidation zone.Outperformance. The breakout has been coupled with outperformance to the S&P 500.Upside Target. Given the breakout, there is potential for DXCM’s stock price to fill the gap up to the $107.50 level.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF DXCM STOCK. The stock price traded between $75 and $80 since the end of November. DXCM recently broke out of its consolidation zone and traded above $80.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Beyond the charts, DXCM’s fundamentals support its premium valuation:

Premium but justified. While trading at 39x forward earnings, DXCM’s superior growth expectations and higher net margins than peers suggest that this valuation is justified.Potential for substantial upside. Robust demand in the continuous glucose monitoring market and DexCom’s leadership position the company to capitalize on ongoing trends. The combination of strong growth prospects and healthy margins provides the potential for further appreciation.

Options Strategy

Based on this bullish thesis, the OptionsPlay Strategy Center highlights a bull put spread.

Sell: February 28, 2025, $84 Put at $5.40Buy: February 28, 2025, $77 Put at $2.42Net Credit: $2.98 per share (or $298 total per contract, since each contract represents 100 shares)

FIGURE 2. DXCM BULL PUT SPREAD RISK CURVE.

Trade Details

Maximum Potential Reward: $298Maximum Potential Risk: $402Breakeven Point: $81.02Probability of Profit: 58.58%

This strategy benefits from time decay and a bullish outlook, providing limited risk and a defined reward. At expiration, profits are earned if DXCM’s stock price remains above the breakeven level.

Unlock Real-Time Trade Ideas

This bullish trade in DXCM was identified using the OptionsPlay Strategy Center within StockCharts.com. The platform’s Bullish Outperform scan (see below) automatically flagged DXCM as the best candidate for selling a Bull Put Spread out of the many stocks currently outperforming the market, then structured the optimal options trade — helping you save hours of research.

FIGURE 3. BULLISH OUTPERFORMANCE SCAN. DXCM was identified as a candidate for a bull put spread.

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Don’t miss out on your next high-conviction idea. Subscribe to the OptionsPlay Strategy Center today and unlock a streamlined approach to uncovering the best options trades—all within seconds, every single day. Let OptionsPlay be your strategic ally in navigating the markets efficiently and effectively.

Asset management giant Vanguard has been fined more than $100 million to settle charges related to disclosures around target date investment funds, the Securities and Exchange Commission announced Friday.

The alleged violations stem from a 2020 change where Vanguard lowered the minimum investment requirement for its institutional target date funds. The SEC order found that the change spurred redemptions as Vanguard customers moved from other target date funds into the institutional versions, creating taxable distributions for some of the remaining shareholders. The SEC said Vanguard failed to properly disclose the potential impact of the investment threshold changes on distributions.

“The order finds that, as a result, retail investors of the Investor TRFs who did not switch and continued to hold their fund shares in taxable accounts faced historically larger capital gains distributions and tax liabilities and were deprived of the potential compounding growth of their investments,” the SEC said in a press release.

The fine of $106.41 million will be distributed to harmed investors, the SEC said. Vanguard agreed to the fine without admitting or denying the SEC’s findings.

Vanguard is one of the world’s largest asset managers, reporting more than $10 trillion of global assets as of last November. The firm was founded by Jack Bogle in the 1970s and has a reputation as a low-cost, investor friendly firm.

“Vanguard is committed to supporting the more than 50 million everyday investors and retirement savers who entrust us with their savings. We’re pleased to have reached this settlement and look forward to continuing to serve our investors with world-class investment options,” Vanguard said in a statement.

Target date funds are a popular retirement vehicle designed to slowly shift from a growth-oriented portfolio to a conservative portfolio as the listed year approaches. Typically, this is done by replacing riskier stocks with higher exposure to income-generating bonds as the retirement date nears.

The fine highlights how investors can see large tax bills even when they themselves do not make any asset sales during a calendar year. When Vanguard dropped the minimum initial investment for its institutional target retirement funds to $5 million from $100 million in December 2020, it spurred retirement plan investors to cash out of the investor share class of these funds and swap into the institutional version, according to the SEC.

Vanguard then had to sell the underlying assets in the investor share class of the funds to meet the redemptions from departing investors, the SEC found. As a result, shareholders who stayed in the investor share class were subject to a large capital gains distribution — and a tax liability if they held the fund in a taxable brokerage account, according to the order.

Normally, target date funds remain in tax-deferred accounts like 401(k) plans or individual retirement accounts — which would avoid a tax hit from a large capital gains distribution.

The SEC’s order said Vanguard’s investor-series target funds saw $130 billion in redemptions from December 2020 to October 2021, up from $41 billion in the same period a year prior. Vanguard later merged the two series of funds together, which the SEC order said the company refrained from doing originally in part to preserve fee revenue.

The fine announced Friday is in addition to the $40 million Vanguard had agreed to pay to investors as part of a class action suit.

The timing of the target date fund changes is similar to another recent Vanguard legal run-in. In 2023, Vanguard was fined $800,000 by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority related to problems with account statements for money market funds in 2019 and 2020.

The alleged violations took place under former CEO Tim Buckley. The current CEO, Salim Ramji, joined Vanguard from BlackRock in 2024.

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The Federal Trade Commission said Friday that it is suing PepsiCo for illegal price discrimination, alleging the food and beverage giant gave an unnamed retailer more favorable prices than its competition.

Walmart is the unnamed retailer, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The FTC alleges Pepsi violated the Robinson-Patman Act, which bars sellers from giving competing buyers different prices for the same “commodity” or selectively providing allowances, like compensation for advertising. The agency argues Pepsi gave Walmart promotional payments and allowances, as well as advertising and promotional tools, that it didn’t offer to the retail giant’s rivals.

Pepsi denied the allegations and said the FTC’s lawsuit is wrong, both factually and legally.

“PepsiCo strongly disputes the FTC’s allegations, and the partisan manner in which the suit was filed. We will vigorously present our case in court,” the company said in a statement to CNBC. “PepsiCo’s practices are in line with industry norms and we do not favor certain customers by offering discounts or promotional support to some customers and not others.”

Walmart did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNBC.

The complaint, which was filed in the Southern District of New York, is currently sealed.

The FTC also said that a “substantial portion” of the alleged violations are redacted in the lawsuit, citing legal protections given to Pepsi and the large, big box retailer. The commission is seeking to lift the redactions to show how Pepsi broke the law and how those alleged actions led to higher prices for competing retailers.

The Robinson-Patman Act was passed in 1936, but the federal government stopped enforcing it during the deregulation of the 1980s. The FTC resumed its enforcement in December when it sued Southern Glazer’s, the largest U.S. distributor of wine and spirits.

The lawsuit comes on the final business day before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday, which will spell the end of Lina Khan’s time as chair of the FTC. Her Republican successor, Andrew Ferguson, currently serves on the commission and released a statement dissenting against the decision to sue Pepsi.

The Biden administration has taken a flurry of legal action against companies and corporate executives in its final days, targeting Capital One, Southwest Airlines and Elon Musk, among others.

— CNBC’s Mary Catherine Wellons contributed reporting for this story.

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The CEO of UnitedHealth Group said Thursday that shortcomings of America’s health care system must be addressed.

On the company’s first earnings call since the fatal shooting of UnitedHealth executive Brian Thompson, CEO Andrew Witty said that while the U.S. provides world-leading care in many respects, there are systemic flaws that are working to drive up health costs for people in the country. 

“The health system needs to function better,” he said, adding that the “variety” of state, federal and private sector structures and programs have created a “confusing,” “complex” and “costly” health care landscape. 

Witty began the call expressing gratitude for the condolences received in the wake of Thompson’s death.

“Many of you knew Brian personally,” Witty said, referring to the investors on the call. “You knew how much he meant to all of us and how he devoted his time to help make the health system work better for all of the people we’re privileged to serve.”

The suspect charged in Thompson’s killing, Luigi Mangione, is currently being held without bond in Brooklyn. He faces capital murder charges, to which he has pleaded not guilty. 

While past UnitedHealth earnings calls have featured general remarks about the company’s desire to deliver improved outcomes for its customers, Witty’s comments Thursday acknowledged the broader debate about the state of U.S. health care that has emerged in the wake of Thompson’s shooting. 

Witty’s remarks came as United Health reported record 2024 revenues. Shortly before Thompson was killed, its stock price was at an all-time high.

Prior to addressing the company’s financial performance, Witty discussed some of the shortcomings of the profit-driven model of U.S. health care head on.

“Participants in the system,” he said, derive benefit from high health care costs. While lower prices and improved services can be good for consumers and patients, Witty said, they can “threaten revenue streams for organizations that depend on charging more for care.”

Witty did not discuss to what extent UnitedHealth itself was a beneficiary of such circumstances. 

When it comes to drug costs, for example, he said U.S. health care participants “pay disproportionately more than people in other countries,” citing the cost of the weight loss drug GLP, which he said in Europe costs approximately one-tenth its price in the U.S. 

Witty directly blamed drug companies for discrepancies like those, while stating that UnitedHealth’s pharmacy-benefit managers (PBM), who help negotiate retail drug prices and who have come under increasing public pressure for their role in setting drug prices, continue to work to pass savings on to customers. 

UnitedHealth’s improved PBM performance “will help make more transparent who is really responsible for drug pricing in this country: the drug companies themselves,” Witty said, without elaborating.

In a statement late Thursday, a representative for PhRMA, which represents drug companies, pushed back on Witty’s assertion.

‘Congress, the FTC, state attorneys general, and others who have looked at this issue have all come to the same conclusion that PBM abuses are driving up costs,’ Alex Schriver, PhRMA senior vice president of public affairs, said in an email.

‘Investigations have exposed big insurer and PBM companies for charging thousands of different prices for the same medicines at the same time. The FTC just released a second report showing the same companies mark up medicines at their own pharmacies 10 times or more.’

‘These big health care conglomerates make billions in profit from controlling what medicines people get, the price they pay and what pharmacy they can use. That’s why there’s unprecedented bipartisan support for holding them accountable.’

For the quarter, UnitedHealth reported worse-than-expected results, sending its shares down more than 4% Thursday.  

“Health care in every country is complex and the solutions are not simple, but you should expect this company to continue to work at it,” Witty stated. 

CORRECTION (Jan. 16, 2025, 9 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated how much the weight loss drug GLP costs. It is one-tenth of its U.S. price in Europe, not one-tenth less.

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The U.S. Food and Drug Administration formally authorized Zyn nicotine pouches for sale after conducting an ‘extensive scientific review’ about their safety.

In a release Thursday, the agency said it had found that the popular pouches posed lower risk of cancer and other serious health conditions compared with cigarettes, as well as in relation to other smokeless tobacco products.

The agency also found that the pouches even had the potential to benefit cigarette smokers amid evidence that they can get them to quit.

‘The data show that these nicotine pouch products meet that bar by benefiting adults who use cigarettes and/or smokeless tobacco products and completely switch to these products,” Matthew Farrelly, director of the office of science in the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products, said in a statement. 

Zyn use has exploded in recent years in the wake of a viral online meme trend, even prompting a shortage last year. Yet the product had been operating in a legal gray area while it underwent official FDA review about its health effects and uptake among young users.

To that latter point, the FDA found that, so far, Zyn use among youths appeared to be relatively low, though it was continuing to monitor the trend.

A spokesperson for Philip Morris International Inc., which owns the U.S. rights to Zyn, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Swedish Match, the developer of Zyn, said in a statement, “The FDA’s authorization of all ZYN nicotine pouches currently marketed by Swedish Match in the U.S. is an important step to protect the public health by providing better alternatives to cigarettes and other traditional tobacco products for adults 21+.”

The Campaign for Tobacco-Free Kids slammed the FDA’s decision in a separate statement.

‘The FDA today has set a dangerous precedent that puts the nation’s kids at risk by authorizing the sale of 20 Zyn nicotine pouch products with flavors that clearly appeal to kids, including chill, citrus, cool mint and peppermint,’ it said.

‘The FDA’s decision is deeply troubling given the extensive scientific evidence that flavored tobacco products appeal to kids and the fact that nicotine pouches were the only category of tobacco product that saw an increase in youth use last year. The FDA is sanctioning a flavored tobacco product that is already increasing in popularity with kids and repeating the mistakes it made with Juul that resulted in the youth e-cigarette epidemic.’

In the release, the FDA emphasized that its findings about Zyn did not mean the products are ultimately safe or “FDA approved.”

‘There is no safe tobacco product,’ the agency said. ‘Youth should not use tobacco products and adults who do not use tobacco products should not start.’

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The popularity and success of March Madness is owed in part to the years-long reality that figuring out who’s in and who’s out of the NCAA tournament each season is as much a part of the fun as watching the games unfold to determine college basketball’s national champion. This has led to a new truism over the past decade: It’s never too early for bracketology.

What was once an exercise conducted in the days leading into Selection Sunday eventually turned into a conference play constant, with the bubble, last four in and first four out joining the sport’s vocabulary. Today, bracketology is a year-round endeavor for the likes of ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, with multiple updates during each week of the season.

There are about two months until Selection Sunday for the 2025 NCAA tournament, and the competition for a spot in the bracket and the highest seed possible is heating up now that conference play has arrived throughout the country. Here’s a breakdown of some of the latest national projections for the this year’s March Madness field, including potential No. 1 seeds, teams rising and falling and the current state of the bubble as of Friday, January 17:

March Madness bracketology 2025: Potential No. 1 seeds

Here’s a look at the teams currently projected to be No. 1 seeds in the 2025 NCAA tournament bracket by a variety of national outlets:

ESPN: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
CBS Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
NCAA.com: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Alabama
FOX Sports: Auburn, Duke, Iowa State, Tennessee
The Washington Post: Auburn, Duke, Alabama, Tennessee

NCAA tournament 2025: Teams on the rise

Michigan State: Since losing to Memphis in the semifinals of the Maui Invitational, the Spartans have reeled off 10 wins in a row. After debuting at No. 41 in this year’s initial NET rankings, they’ve climbed to No. 17 as of Thursday and remain in position to secure a top-three seed on Selection Sunday.
Arizona: The Wildcats got off to a rocky start thanks to tough non-conference scheduling, losing five of their first nine games. But Arizona is on a seven-game win streak entering Saturday’s Big 12 game at Texas Tech. It has gone from No. 65 to No. 12 in the NET rankings over the past six weeks.
Mississippi: Coach Chris Beard’s team only has losses to ranked teams (Purdue and Memphis) and got four-straight wins to begin SEC play, including this past week’s road win at Alabama. The Rebels could challenge for a top-four seed given how many opportunities the loaded SEC presents this season.
Louisville: The Cardinals are a remarkable turnaround story in coach Pat Kelsey’s first season, putting together an undefeated record in ACC play thus far to rejoin the national conversation. Louisville is now as high as a No. 6 seed in some bracketology updates.

Selection Sunday 2025: Who’s falling in bracketology?

Dayton: The Flyers have non conference wins over UConn, Marquette and Northwestern, but erased much of that goodwill by losing three in a row in Atlantic-10 conference play.
Pittsburgh: The Panthers were one of the few ACC teams to represent themselves well in non conference play, but consecutive losses to Duke, Louisville and Florida State have Pittsburgh inching closer to the bubble.
Indiana: The Hoosiers seemed poised to play their way off the bubble with four-straight wins against Big Ten competition, but blowout losses to Iowa and Illinois mean Indiana’s chances of making the NCAA tournament ‒ and coach Mike Woodson’s job status ‒ appear to be in jeopardy.
Oklahoma: The Sooners won 13 games in a row to start the season and the run included wins over Arizona, Louisville and Michigan. But they’ve come back down to earth swiftly after losing four games in a row to start SEC play.

Who’s on the March Madness bubble?

Here’s a look at some of the teams currently considered to be on the bubble by national outlets as conference play heats up with almost two months to go until Selection Sunday:

ESPN

*As of Jan. 17

Last four in: Ohio State, Creighton New Mexico, Texas, Dayton,
Last four byes: Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Saint Mary’s, Nebraska, Missouri
First four out: Vanderbilt, Iowa, Cincinnati, UCF
Next four out: Arizona State, Arkansas, SMU, Dayton

CBS Sports

*As of Jan. 17

Last four in: Texas, Wake Forest, New Mexico, Vanderbilt
Last four byes: Iowa, Creighton, UCLA, San Diego State
First four out: SMU, Texas Tech, Northwestern, Arizona State

FOX Sports

*As of Jan. 14

Last four in: Texas Tech, New Mexico, Creighton, Iowa
First four out: Texas, St. Bonaventure, Indiana, Georgetown
Next four out: SMU, Arizona State, Penn State, Cincinnati

The Washington Post

*As of Jan. 13

Last four in: UCF, Arizona State, New Mexico, Saint Mary’s
First four out: Arkansas, Drake, Vanderbilt, Dayton
Next four out: Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Penn State

Andy Katz, NCAA.com

*As of Jan. 14

Last four in: Texas Tech, Saint Mary’s, Ohio State, Creighton
Next teams considered: Arizona State, Vanderbilt, Wake Forest, SMU, Drake, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, BYU, Villanova, VCU, Dayton

USA Today Coaches Poll

Here’s where teams stand in the latest USA Today Coaches Poll for men’s basketball, released on Jan. 13.

Auburn (16-1)
Iowa State (15-1)
Duke (15-2)
Florida (15-2)
Alabama (14-3)
Tennessee (16-1)
Marquette (15-2)
Houston (13-3)
Kentucky (14-3)
Kansas (12-4)
Texas A&M (13-4)
Michigan State (15-2)
UConn (13-4)
Oregon (15-2)
Purdue (14-4)
Gonzaga (14-5)
Memphis (13-4)
Mississippi State (14-3)
Michigan (13-4)
Illinois (13-4)
Mississippi (15-2)
Utah State (16-2)
Georgia (14-3)
Baylor (11-5)
West Virginia (12-4)

Others receiving votes: St. John’s; Wisconsin; Arizona; New Mexico; Oklahoma; UCLA; Maryland; Texas Tech; Clemson; Saint Mary’s; Louisville; Indiana; San Diego State; Missouri; UC Irvine.

*Records through Jan. 16 games

This post appeared first on USA TODAY