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So far this has been a fairly entertaining start to the new year!  The S&P 500 started off with a bounce to 6050, pushed briefly below our line-in-the-sand level of 5850, then finished this week with a retest of 6000.  While the VIX remains fairly low relative to historical levels, it feels as if our “emotional volatility” remains pretty elevated!

In recent interviews for my Market Misbehavior podcast, I’ve asked top strategists like Adam Turnquist of LPL Financial what they are expecting as we progress through Q1 2025.  I’m getting some bullish outlooks as well as more measured expectations, which reminds me that there are plenty of potential outcomes that could play out over the next six to eight weeks.

I have to admit that I was definitely surprised at the severity of this week’s sudden rally to retest the 6000 level.  Friday’s surge completed one of the most bullish weeks we’ve seen in recent history, forcing the S&P 500 above trendline resistance (pink in above chart) based on the head and right shoulders of the head and shoulders pattern.  Does this mean the pullback phase, and we are moving on to new all-time highs in February?  Or was that a “dead cat bounce” before another down leg begins next week?

Today, we’re using what’s called “probabilistic analysis” to consider four potential paths for the S&P 500 between now and early March.  As I share each of these four scenarios, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.  

By the way, we last ran this analytical process on the S&P 500 back in October 2024, and you won’t believe which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, with the QQQ achieving a new all-time high over the next six to eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

What if the S&P 500 resumes the uptrend phase from September through November of 2024?  The very bullish scenario would mean the SPX pushes above the previous all-time high at 6100 and does not look back.  Trump takes off and instead of shocking the market with fears of inflation, his new policy decisions represent a more measured approach to tariffs.  The Magnificent 7 names resume their leadership role, earnings season is a blowout blast of bullishness, and the S&P 500 hits 6500 before February 1st.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Perhaps the Magnificent 7 stocks don’t return to new all-time highs, but continue to remain rangebound over the next month.  Value sectors like financials and industrials take on a leadership role, and small caps finally begin to outperform their large cap cousins.  Trump’s early policy decisions still feel inflationary, and as a result, investors are hesitant to take on more risk until we get more clarity.

Dave’s vote: 30%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

What if last week was a countertrend move higher, often known as a “dead cat bounce”, and over the next few weeks we see another down leg for the S&P 500?  There are notable breakouts in the value sectors, but the mega cap growth trade still doesn’t take off.  Inflation fears increase as the new President takes office, and investors hang on every economic release for signs of optimism.  The Mildly Bearish scenario would mean a retest of the January swing low around 5800, and we begin the month of March wondering whether 5800 will hold this time around.

Dave’s vote: 50%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

We always have to consider the doomsday scenario, where conditions deteriorate much more quickly than expected.  Earnings season is a bust, Trump’s new administration lights up tariffs, and inflationary fears lead to low confidence in the Fed’s ability to take decisive action.  The S&P 500 pushes down to the 200-day moving average, and after a brief bounce, drops down to around 5500 by the end of February.

Dave’s vote: 10%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios?  Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

An outage affecting Capital One customers dragged into its second day Friday, further preventing some customers from accessing deposits, payments and transfers.

In an afternoon statement, the bank said it was still restoring systems that had been taken offline due to a technical issue with a third-party vendor.

The vendor, Fidelity Information Services (FIS), based in Jacksonville, Florida, released a statement saying a local power outage had affected a data center that was critical to various applications.

On Friday, FIS said it had restored access to the applications and was working with impacted clients to post transactions that occurred while systems were offline.

‘Most, if not all, of that work’ would be completed Friday, the company said.

In an email to customers late Thursday, Capital One said it had expected the majority of issues to be resolved by Friday morning.

Yet according to DownDetector.com, there were still hundreds of reports of issues as of 9 a.m. ET Friday.

And on social media, Capital One acknowledged the issues were ongoing, with one bank representative telling an X user it continued to work ‘around the clock to restore full functionality as soon as possible.’

The issues at Capital One after Citibank acknowledged a problem affecting customers’ ability to access their accounts from mobile devices, as well as an apparent issue related to fraud alerts.

It is not clear whether FIS was also involved in the Citi outage.

Earlier this month, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued Capital One, alleging it misled customers about its savings-account offerings. Capital One has denied the allegations.

This is a developing story. Check back for updates.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Beloved ESPN basketball commentator Dick Vitale will make his return to broadcasting on Jan. 25 for Duke vs. Wake Forest basketball, the network announced Friday.

Vitale, 85, has battled four types of cancer in the past three-and-a-half years, according to ESPN. The National Basketball Hall of Fame member announced he was cancer free on Jan. 8.

“I am absolutely ecstatic and I can’t believe this is happening after going through five major vocal cord surgeries, 65 radiation treatments and chemotherapy for six months,” Vitale said in the announcement. “It’s been a very tough journey, but all of the prayers and messages from the beautiful fans have inspired me. I can’t thank Jimmy Pitaro and all of my ESPN colleagues who I consider my second family enough for the love they showed me through such a tough time. I just hope that I can offer the people some basketball insights that can bring even more excitement to the game.”

Vitale’s last appeared on an ESPN broadcast on April 3, 2023, for San Diego State vs UConn in the national championship.

‘Dickie V’ has called over 1,000 games since joining ESPN for the 1979-80 season, also calling the network’s first major college basketball game. He has also played a major role in ESPN’s ‘V Foundation,’ which was founded by the network and former NC State coach Jim Valvano, who died of cancer.

Vitale made a name for himself in coaching before joining ESPN, as he served as an assistant at Rutgers from 1971-73 before becoming the head coach at mid-major Detroit Mercy from 1973-77, reaching the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament in 1977. Vitale then became the head coach of the Detroit Pistons, a role he occupied from 1978-79 before taking a job at ESPN.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — With Lionel Messi in Major League Soccer, and Argentine coach Mauricio Pochettino taking the helm of the U.S. men’s national team ahead of the 2026 World Cup, the Argentine presence in American soccer is clear.

Can Pochettino’s Argentine influence translate to U.S. Soccer eventually replicating Argentina’s winning ways in the sport? It may be easier to translate Spanish to English, but it’s easy to see the aspiration.

Argentine players such as Messi play with pride and passion, inherit feelings they rely on despite their size or other physical attributes in the most heated of competitions.

They’ve won 65 of their past 70 matches, including the last two Copa Americas and the Qatar World Cup in 2022.

Pochettino hopes to find USMNT players who play with the same purpose, despite having a player of Messi’s caliber and being far from World Cup favorites at this point.

‘The way Argentine players compete: When you lose a ball, you cry,’ Pochettino said Friday before USMNT takes on Venezuela at Inter Miami’s Chase Stadium on Saturday. ‘When you lose a game, you spend maybe one week in your room when you want to go out. It’s how you defend your patch, your flag. It’s how you defend your identity, your culture. It’s what we want to translate.

‘When you play for the national team, you need to feel something in your skin and inside yourself.’

Pochettino faces a tall task leading U.S. Soccer, but his Argentine flare could help steer the direction of the program moving forward.

The new USMNT coach is 3-1 so far: The Americans won 2-0 against Panama on Oct. 12, but lost 2-0 to Mexico on Oct. 15, and beat Jamaica 5-2 on aggregate in two Concacaf Nations League games in November.

Along with their World Cup preparation, USMNT will compete with Canada, Mexico and Panama at the Concacaf Nations League finals in March, and in the Concacaf Gold Cup later this summer.

Pochettino has fielded a group of MLS players at this January’s camp, giving the league’s players an opportunity to audition for the national team. USMNT star Christian Pulisic isn’t available since Saturday’s match and Wednesday’s tilt in Orlando against Costa Rica falls outside the FIFA international window.

‘The message is: Show me we can with you,’ Pochettino said. ‘And playing in MLS, you can compete with players in Europe.’

Benjamin Cremaschi, an Inter Miami standout of Argentinian descent who played with the U.S. at the Paris Olympics, didn’t have much trouble adjusting to Pochettino’s coaching during the USMNT in the last two weeks.

He already plays with Argentine pride from playing alongside Messi for the past 18 months, while being coached by former Inter Miami coach Tata Martino and new coach Javier Mascherano – both also from Argentina.

‘I think Argentinians play with a lot of passion. I think they’ve shown it around the world. So that’s something that they definitely bring to the table,’ Cremaschi said this week.

‘I think just the passion, the way they live the game. I feel like that’s something that a lot of players could learn from.’

Drake Callender, an Inter Miami goalie unable to play with USMNT this weekend due to a minor muscle issue, is a fan of the Argentine mentality and philosophy he’s learned from playing with Messi and his Inter Miami coaches.

‘I feel like it brings the best out of the players,’ Callender said. ‘It’s hard work combined with passion, combined with skill. It’s a type of soccer that is exciting, but also is tactically sound.’

Inter Miami youngster Yannick Bright, who was born in Italy and played college soccer at the University of New Hampshire, also echoed the Argentine passion he’s experienced.

‘It’s a different kind of futbol,’ Bright said. ‘It’s a little more like having fun with the ball rather than being all about physicality and stuff. And I try to embrace it. It’s nice to learn with the ball and be calm with the ball, rather than just run everywhere around.’

St. Louis City’s Indiana Vassilev, 23, has played on several U.S. soccer youth levels and been instructed by Argentine coaches in his career.

‘I’ve had our Argentinian coaches in the past. I think they’re very intense. They’re very direct, and focused in what they do. I think they can obviously help us,’ Vassilev said. ‘I think that’s why they were hired, and I think that’s why they’re here.’

Pochettino categorized himself Friday as a demanding and intense coach.

He wants his players to be explosive and play with power. He wants them to control the ball and fight until they regain possession. And he wants balance on both sides of the pitch to score goals and not concede them.

More important, Pochettino wants his American players to find their pride and purpose.

‘I don’t know the percentage you’re going to give more. But for sure, (if it’s) one, five or 10 percent more, you’re going to have an extra energy that you’re going to put on the pitch,’ Pochettino said.

‘If you’re able to feel that … I think we can build a very competitive team. That is one of our objectives.’

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Philadelphia 76ers All-Star center Joel Embiid will miss at least the next three games against Indiana, Milwaukee and Denver with swelling in his left knee, the team announced Friday.

“Joel Embiid participated in an on-court workout (Thursday) after missing the last six games due to a left foot sprain,” the 76ers said in a news release. “While the foot sprain has healed, Embiid experienced an increase in swelling in his left knee following the workout. After consulting with team medical staff and external doctors, Embiid will receive treatment in the coming days to address the swelling. As a result, he will be out for the upcoming road trip and re-evaluated in approximately 7-10 days.”

It’s yet another setback for Embiid and the Sixers who are 15-24 and in 11th place in the Eastern Conference.

Embiid, the 2022-23 NBA MVP, has played in just 13 games this season, missing time with knee, foot and sinus injuries. He was sidelined for Philadelphia’s first nine games, sat out seven consecutive games in late November and early December and has been sidelined for the past six games.

He is averaging 24.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.0 blocks and shooting 45.2% from the field – which is the lowest shooting percentage of his career.

On October 29, the NBA fined the 76ers $100,000 for “public statements, including by president of basketball operations Daryl Morey and head coach Nick Nurse, that were inconsistent with Joel Embiid’s health status and in violation of NBA rules, including the league’s Player Participation Policy.

“The league’s investigation also confirmed that Embiid has been unable to play in the 76ers’ regular season games this season due to a left knee condition, and therefore his games missed have not violated the Player Participation Policy.”

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

The Tennessee Titans are prepared to add a new face to the front office.

Kansas City Chiefs assistant general manager Mike Borgonzi and the Titans are working on a contract to make him the team’s next general manager, according to the The Tennessean, which is part of the USA TODAY Network. The vacancy opened up less than two weeks ago when Tennessee opted to fire Ran Carthon on Jan. 7 after just two seasons with a 9-25 record.

A contract hasn’t been offered yet, according to the report, but the two sides are working through a deal.

The Titans are entering a critical offseason, armed with the No. 1 pick in the upcoming 2025 NFL draft and just over $55 million in cap space, currently ranked as the 11th-most in the league, according to Spotrac.

Borgonzi would become the sixth full-time general manager in Titans history and their third in fourth seasons. Tennessee will hope that their new hire will bring some stability to a team that’s been increasingly unstable since reaching the playoffs in three consecutive seasons from 2019-21.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Here’s what to know about Borgonzi.

Who is Mike Borgonzi?

Borgonzi served as the second in command behind Chiefs’ general manager, Brett Veach before becoming a candidate for the Titans job.

The former Brown University fullback is a native of Everett, Massachusetts, and he was a four-year starter before shifting over to the coaching and front office ranks.

Mike Borgonzi coaching, front office history

Borgonzi has been in the coaching and front office space since 2009, but started as a recruiting coordinator at Boston College from 2007-08. Following his stint there, he joined the Chiefs organization, where he’s been ever since. Here’s a look at the various roles he’s held in Kansas City:

College scouting administrator: 2009
Manager of football operations: 2010
Pro personnel scout: 2011-12
Assistant director of pro scouting: 2013-14
Co-director of player personnel: 2015-16
Director of player personnel: 2017
Director of football operations: 2018-20
Assistant general manager: 2021-24

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OpenAI has partnered with a new AI initiative led by a group co-founded with outgoing Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry that has pushed left-wing causes and has several board members aligned with Democrats. 

OpenAI, led by CEO Sam Altman, is backing an initiative known as AI 2030, which is aimed at shaping ‘public dialogue about U.S. competition against China on AI,’ Politico reported in October.

The initiative is led by the ‘non-partisan’ think tank American Security Project (ASP), where Kerry was a founding member and served two stints on the board of directors. 

ASP has promoted the idea that climate change is a national security threat, and argued on its website that pulling out of the Iran Nuclear Deal was a bad idea that ‘harms national security.’ The group previously received a $500,000 grant from the Rockefeller Foundation ‘for use by its World War Zero initiative, an effort to achieve action and mobilization through awareness and public education to halt the increase of global carbon emissions.’  The Rockefeller Foundation has dished out tens of millions of dollars to left-wing causes.

Kerry’s former chief of staff David Wade, who gave Hunter Biden rapid response help as the Burisma scandal swirled, currently sits on the board of directors and recently authored an op-ed in The Hill explaining how AI in the U.S. has reached its ‘Sputnik moment,’ outlining the need to compete with China on AI.

Former Obama Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel, who called then-President Trump an ’embarrassment’ in 2018, also sits on the board of ASP.

Rep, Don Beyer, D-Va., who is also on the board at ASP, has publicly opposed Trump’s tariff policies, calling them ‘idiotic’ and ‘illegal’ in a 2023 press release.

In 2018, ASP promoted an op-ed by Board Member Matthew Wallin in which he criticized Trump’s diplomatic tactics against Russian President Vladimir Putin. 

In 2017, Wallin amplified the debunked media narrative in a post on X, then Twitter, that Trump called White supremacists at the deadly Charlottesville rally ‘good people.’

Chris Lehane, who serves as OpenAI’s Head of Global Policy, is the author of the infamous and controversial ‘Vast Right Wing Conspiracy’ memo promoted by then-first lady Hillary Clinton dismissing the Monica Lewinsky scandal as part of a right-wing media conspiracy. 

Along with being a longtime Democratic Party consultant, Lehane has recently contributed money to help former Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., and Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif. 

Altman recently followed other tech titans and made a substantial $1 million gift to Trump’s inauguration in his personal capacity, but has faced scrutiny for previous high-dollar donations to left-wing efforts, including a $250,000 donation to a Democratic super PAC and opposition research firm American Bridge during the 2020 election. 

Altman has donated to hundreds of Democrats in recent years compared to just one Republican, Newsweek reported this past summer. He was also recently tapped to be a co-chair for the incoming Democratic mayor of San Francisco’s transition team. 

In addition to hosting a fundraiser for Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang at his San Francisco home in late 2019, Altman has donated over $1 million to Democrats and Democratic groups, including $600,000 to the Sen. Chuck Schumer-aligned Senate Majority PAC, $100,000 to the Biden Victory Fund and over $150,000 to the Democratic National Committee (DNC). He also gave thousands to state Democratic parties and top Democrats in the House and Senate.

In 2014, Altman co-hosted a fundraiser for the DNC at Y Combinator’s offices in Mountain View, California, which was headlined by then-President Obama.

Following Trump’s victory in November, Altman posted on X, ‘congrats to President Trump. i wish for his huge success in the job.’

‘It is critically important that the US maintains its lead in developing AI with democratic values,’ he added. 

During Altman’s tenure from 2014 to 2019 as the CEO of Y Combinator, an incubator startup that launched Airbnb, DoorDash and DropBox, he talked about China in multiple blog posts and interviews. In 2017, Altman said that he ‘felt more comfortable discussing controversial ideas in Beijing than in San Francisco’ and that he felt like an expansion into China was ‘important’ because ‘some of the most talented entrepreneurs’ that he has met have been operating there. 

Altman’s résumé and AI efforts have drawn the ire of Trump ally Elon Musk in recent years. Musk said last year, ‘I don’t trust OpenAI. I don’t trust Sam Altman. And I don’t think we ought to have the most powerful AI in the world controlled by someone who is not trustworthy.’

Musk, who has been involved with a highly publicized legal tussle with Altman, has also said that OpenAI’s ChatGPT function is infected with the ‘woke virus.’

ChatGPT is an AI chatbot whose core function is to mimic a human in conversation. Users across the world have used ChatGPT to write emails, debug computer programs, answer homework questions, play games, write stories and song lyrics, and much more. 

‘It is going to eliminate a lot of current jobs, that’s true. We can make much better ones. The reason to develop AI at all, in terms of impact on our lives and improving our lives and upside, this will be the greatest technology humanity has yet developed,’ Altman said in a 2023 interview with ABC News. ‘The promise of this technology, one of the ones that I’m most excited about, is the ability to provide individual learning — great individual learning for each student.’

In recent months, OpenAI has reportedly been quietly pitching its products to the U.S. military and pursuing defense contracts, Forbes reported.

In a statement to Fox News Digital, a spokesperson for OpenAI said, ‘America has to win the AI race, and that is why Americans from both sides of the aisle are united in supporting policies that help the US maintain its competitive edge against China.’ 

‘ASP is a nearly twenty-year-old bipartisan organization that works with legislators, retired flag officers, subject matter experts, and groups from across the political spectrum to produce high quality research and forge bipartisan consensus on emerging threats to our national security,’ an ASP spokesperson told Fox News Digital in a statement. 

‘While OpenAI is one of many donors for AI Imperative 2030, we ensure an equal balance of opinions informed by independent experts and Consensus for American Security members, including Julia Nesheiwat, Ph.D., former Trump Homeland Security Advisor, and Neil Chatterjee, former Chairman of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission under Trump. We also recently hosted a roundtable featuring Nazak Nikakhtar, another former Trump official.’

The statement continued, ‘The primary objective of AI Imperative 2030 is to ensure that the U.S., not China, wins the race for AI supremacy. China aims to surpass the U.S. and lead the world in AI by 2030. We can’t let that happen. President Trump has been a leader in creating bipartisan consensus that the U.S. needs to compete more vigorously with China, and we look forward to working with his administration and the Republican Congress to design effective and cost-efficient policies towards this goal.’

Fox News Digital’s Nikolas Lanum, Cameron Cawthorne and Joe Schoffstall contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

It all comes down to this. The College Football Playoff championship game will match Ohio State and Notre Dame on Monday in Atlanta. The expansion of the field to 12 teams has been an unqualified success in producing a national champion.

The path for both teams to reach the final has been different. The Buckeyes rolled through Tennessee and Oregon before getting pushed by Texas in the semifinals. The Fighting Irish handled Indiana and then fought through tough games against Georgia and Penn State.

There are some intriguing storylines for the game. Both proud programs have had long waits to win a national title. It was 1988 for Notre Dame and 2012 for Ohio State. Two of the younger coaches in the Bowl Subdivision – Marcus Freeman and Ryan Day – will be facing off, and one will become just the third active coach to have a championship on their resume. It’s also the second consecutive year an SEC team will not be in the final game, showing the recent strength of teams from the North.

Who will emerge victorious Monday? Dan Wolken and Paul Myerberg offer their predictions and discuss the coaching futures of Deion Sanders at Colorado and Bill Belichick at North Carolina in this week’s version of the College Football Fix.

NO FLUKE: Why Ohio State or Notre Dame will be most deserving champion

LOOKING BACK: How our too-early Top 25 from last season panned out

VALIDATION: Ohio State, Notre Dame show benefit of playoff expansion

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Aren’t all relief pitchers just failed starters?

In Billy Wagner’s case, the answer is a definite no.

The power-packed left-hander never started a game in his major league career (though he did almost exclusively in the minors). Perhaps Wagner could have been an MLB starter … if he hadn’t been so effective out of the bullpen.

The No. 12 overall pick by the Houston Astros in 1993 out of Ferrum College in Virginia, Wagner threw exceptionally hard, especially for someone only 5-foot-10 and 180 pounds. After reaching the majors in 1996, he began dominating hitters almost immediately and quickly became the team’s closer. He earned the first of his seven All-Star nods in 1999 – when he posted a stellar 1.57 ERA with 39 saves and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting.

Wagner pitched in Houston for nine seasons, becoming the franchise’s all-time saves leader, before being traded to Philadelphia in 2004. He was later an All-Star with the Phillies, Mets and Braves before ending his career after the 2010 season.  

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Over his 16 years in the majors, Wagner had a 2.31 ERA, with 422 saves and 1,196 strikeouts in 903 innings. Will that be good enough to get him a ticket to Cooperstown in his final year on the BBWAA ballot?

Why Wagner belongs in the Hall 

If there’s one word that best describes Billy Wagner, it’s overpowering.

He was one of the best in baseball history at striking batters out and limiting hard contact. Among all pitchers with at least 900 major league innings, Wagner is No. 1 all-time in BOTH strikeouts (11.9) and hits allowed (6.0) per inning.

That kind of dominance made him a consistent weapon at the back end of the bullpen – particularly between 1997 and 2008, when he posted an ERA under 3.00 and at least 20 saves in 11 of those 12 seasons.

With seven All-Star appearances, Wagner matches Hall of Fame closer Trevor Hoffman. His rate stats are even better, though Hoffman had 153 more appearances and 179 more saves. In terms of WAR, Wagner (27.7) and Hoffman (28.0) are virtually identical.

The case against Wagner

The most common measuring stick for relief pitchers is the number of saves. Hall members Hoffman (601) and Mariano Rivera (652) are far and away the all-time leaders, with Wagner considerably further behind in eighth place (422) – trailing active relievers Kenley Jansen (447) and Craig Kimbrel (440) and current ballotmate Francisco Rodriguez (437).

There’s also the question of how important anyone who’s only in the game for one inning every other day really is. Does Wagner deserve to be mentioned in the same breath as Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage and Bruce Sutter?

Lastly, Wagner doesn’t really have a signature moment that defines his career. His teams won only one of eight playoff series, and Wagner didn’t help matters much.

In 11 ⅔ postseason innings, he allowed 21 hits and 13 earned runs (10.03 ERA).

Voting trends

According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Tracker, Wagner has been named on 84.7% of the ballots publicly revealed as of Jan. 16.

Wagner has seen his candidacy gain significant momentum over the past few years as the extremely crowded ballots have begun to thin out and his qualifications have been more closely evaluated.  

2016: 10.5%
2017: 10.2%
2018: 11.1%
2019: 16.7%
2020: 31.7%
2021: 46.4%
2022: 51.0%
2023: 68.1%
2024: 73.8%

Realistic outlook

The leading returning vote-getter on the 2025 ballot, Wagner seems like a sure bet to gain entrance to Cooperstown in his final year of eligibility.

Although it’s taken a while for the voters to fully appreciate Wagner’s greatness, the numbers show just how dominant he was over an extended period. With only a select few true relievers in the Hall, Wagner deserves a place among the very best.

(All statistics, including WAR, courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com)

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Maverick Carter, LeBron James’ longtime business partner, has been tabbed as a consultant to a group of investors seeking to raise as much as $5 billion for an international basketball league, a person familiar with the development told USA TODAY Sports.

The person requested anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly about Carter’s involvement.

Bloomberg first reported the news.

The league would, according to Bloomberg, consist of six men’s teams and six women’s teams and play games at limited cities around the world.

James and his agent, Rich Paul, are not involved in this idea, another person familiar with the situation told USA TODAY Sports under the condition of anonymity so he could speak freely. James has expressed his interest in joining an NBA ownership group after he retires from playing.

Meanwhile, the NBA heads overseas next week for two games in Paris between San Antonio and Indiana on January 23 and January 25, marking Victor Wembanyama’s first NBA games in his home country.

While there, NBA commissioner Adam Silver, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum and other high-ranking league executives plan to continue discussions with European stakeholders, including FIBA, about the prospect of a new league in Europe which would include NBA involvement.

“When we were in Paris for the Olympics, we spent a lot of time meeting with interested parties there,” Silver told reporters last month at the NBA Cup final in Las Vegas. “We’ll be back in Paris in January for the two games with the Spurs and the Pacers. We’ll use that opportunity to meet with more interested groups then.

“It’s something we continue to study. It’s not only that we are not ready to make any public announcements, but we haven’t made any internal decisions yet.  I do think there continues to be an enormous opportunity to take basketball to another level in Europe. I joined the NBA shortly before the Dream Team in 1992.  People were saying the same thing coming out of the Dream Team:  what an opportunity. For whatever reasons, that dynamic in Europe, we haven’t seen a basketball league emerge, or a Champions‑type league emerge, where it’s had great fan receptivity.”

The NBA believes there is an unrealized financial opportunity.

In Paris in August, Tatum told USA TODAY Sports, “What’s the best sort of product to be able to introduce into the market that will engage fans in a meaningful way and continue to grow the sport of basketball?

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt

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