The NBA season is nearly underway, and the Oklahoma City Thunder look poised to become the first team since the Golden State Warriors in 2018 to win back-to-back titles. Of course, there are 29 other teams looking to ensure that does not happen.
Players are returning from injury. Big moves during the offseason could lead to new, unforeseen rises from contenders. All it takes is one slip-up or injury to derail an entire campaign. Of course, that is unpredictable. All we can look at is each team’s potential and weigh it against its risk.
That’s essentially what preseason odds are, in a sense. Assessing each team’s potential and weighing it against reality. With the season starting Tuesday, Oct. 21, here is every team in the league ranked by its championship odds. All odds via BetMGM:
NBA power rankings by championship odds
The favorites
1) Oklahoma City Thunder (+240)
2) Denver Nuggets (+550)
3) Cleveland Cavaliers (+750)
4) New York Knicks (+900)
5) Minnesota Timberwolves (+1300)
6) Houston Rockets (+1400)
7) Los Angeles Lakers (+1600)
T-8) Orlando Magic (+1800)
T-8) Los Angeles Clippers (+1800)
Among this group, the Cleveland Cavaliers have the clearest path to an NBA championship. If not for a magical run by the Indiana Pacers a year ago, we may have watched the Thunder duke it out with the Cavaliers in the Finals. Now, with Indiana’s best player, Tyrese Haliburton, out for the season, Cleveland has an opportunity.
Meanwhile, the West is full of strong contenders, and while Oklahoma City stands above the rest, there is a lot of competition, meaning less room for error. Furthermore, the Thunder have targets on their backs now.
The dark horses
10) Golden State Warriors (+2500)
11) Detroit Pistons (+3300)
T-12) Atlanta Hawks (+4000)
T-12) Philadelphia 76ers (+4000)
T-12) Dallas Mavericks (+4000)
People seem to forget that the Golden State Warriors were 23-7 with Jimmy Butler last season. That’s a .767 win percentage, which would have been the best record in the Western Conference. Given that Butler, Curry, and Draymond Green are all a year older now, there’s reason to believe the team will regress. However, given their odds are substantially lower than the top-nine teams in the league, they could be worthy of a flier.
The underdogs
15) Milwaukee Bucks (+5500)
T-16) Boston Celtics (+6600)
T-16) San Antonio Spurs (+6600)
T-18) Indiana Pacers (+10000)
T-18) Toronto Raptors (+10000)
20) Memphis Grizzlies (+12500)
21) Miami Heat (+20000)
22) New Orleans Pelicans (+30000)
The San Antonio Spurs have hit on virtually every draft pick they’ve had in recent memory, and while we don’t quite know what to expect from Victor Wembanyama after he missed a good chunk of time a season ago, we can still assume he’ll be one of the most dominant defensive forces in the NBA, making everyone else’s job on that team that much easier.
While the loss of Chris Paul could certainly come back to haunt the Spurs — every team seems to be better with Paul and worse without him — the extension the team granted to De’Aaron Fox has solidified the team’s young core for the foreseeable future. This could be the first year the Spurs make a massive jump in the standings if everyone stays healthy.
The long shots
T-23) Chicago Bulls (+50000)
T-23) Phoenix Suns (+50000)
T-23) Portland Trail Blazers (+50000)
T-23) Sacramento Kings (+50000)
T-27) Brooklyn Nets (+100000)
T-27) Charlotte Hornets (+100000)
T-27) Washington Wizards (+100000)
T-27) Utah Jazz (+100000)
There isn’t much to like with any of these squads, but if you had to bet on one team exceeding expectations this year, the Sacramento Kings could be a slight sleeper pick. The team won 40 games a season ago with a positive point differential. The Kings have more talent than most people realize and just upgraded at point guard with the addition of Dennis Schroder. Don’t be shocked if this team finishes over .500 and makes a push for a spot in the playoffs.
When does the NBA season start?
The NBA season tips off with a doubleheader on Tuesday, Oct. 21. The first game will be a showdown in Oklahoma City as the defending champion Thunder raise their banner in a matchup against the Houston Rockets. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The second game of the night will see the Golden State Warriors travel south to take on the Los Angeles Lakers (although LeBron James has been ruled out for the game against Steph Curry and Co.). The game will start at 10 p.m. ET.