2024

Donald Trump is cashing in on his convictions in the first trial of a former or current president in the nation’s history.

The former president’s campaign announced on Friday morning that it had hauled in $34.8 million in fundraising from 6 p.m. ET to midnight on Thursday, immediately after Trump was found guilty of all 34 felony counts in his criminal trial in New York City.

The campaign highlighted in a release that they raked in ‘a record shattering small dollar fundraising haul’ as Trump battles President Biden in a 2024 election rematch.

They said the haul was ‘nearly double the biggest day ever recorded for the Trump campaign on the WinRed platform’ and emphasized that the guilty verdicts ‘have awakened the MAGA movement like never before.’

‘From just minutes after the sham trial verdict was announced, our digital fundraising system was overwhelmed with support, and despite temporary delays online because of the amount of traffic, President Trump raised $34.8 million dollars from small dollar donors,’ Trump campaign senior advisers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles wrote in a statement.

They spotlighted that ‘not only was the amount historic, but 29.7% of yesterday’s donors were brand-new donors to the WinRed platform.’

And pointing to the autumn election, LaCivita and Wiles reiterated that ‘President Trump is fighting to save our nation and November 5th is the day Americans will deliver the real verdict.’

Trump earned applause from supporters as he commented Friday morning on what he described as ‘record’ fundraising.

Minutes after the verdict was read in the first trial of a former or current president in the nation’s history, Trump’s team put out a fundraising appeal to supporters.

‘Friend: Is this the end of America?,’ Trump asked in the email. ‘I was just convicted in a RIGGED political Witch Hunt trial.’

‘My end-of-month fundraising deadline is just DAYS AWAY!’ Trump emphasized in the email, which included a photo of the former president labeling him a ‘political prisoner.’

WinRed, the GOP online fundraising platform used by Trump’s campaign, among others, briefly shut down within an hour of the verdict.

LaCivita advised donors encountering a WinRed error message to sign up for Trump’s text messaging list or log back onto the site and try again.

‘If you are one of the millions of American Patriots wanting to donate to Donald Trump’s campaign and you get an error message from @WINRED …don’t give up! Log back on and try again ! or Text TRUMP to 88022,’ LaCivita wrote in a tweet.

Trump’s campaign website also directed donors to Anedot, another fundraising platform used by various GOP campaigns.

Trump’s team also fired off a warning shot to the campaigns of down-ballot Republicans not to try and raise money directly off of the former president’s conviction to prevent the ‘siphoning’ of donations headed to Trump’s coffers.

Meanwhile, the former president’s top pollsters put out a memo on the eve of the verdict arguing that a conviction would not have any electoral consequences.

Biden’s re-election campaign also quickly sent out fundraising appeals following the verdict.

‘Despite a jury finding Donald Trump guilty today, there is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: At the ballot box,’ the Biden campaign wrote in a fundraising text to supporters.

And it urged that ‘if you have been waiting for the perfect time to make your first donation to Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, we’re here to tell you today is the day.’

Trump has been aiming to close his fundraising gap with Biden. In April, his campaign and the Republican National Committee for the first time outraised the Biden campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

While Trump has stepped up his fundraising, the Biden campaign still enjoyed an $84 million to $49 million cash-on-hand advantage at the end of April.

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Politics

‘Corrupt criminal’: Maxine Waters receives backlash over vitriolic response to Trump’s guilty verdict

Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., received backlash on social media in response to her reaction to the criminal conviction of former President Trump in a post where she mocked the former president.

‘Trump shut your mouth!’ Waters posted on X following Trump’s conviction.

‘You talk about saving the Constitution? You’re the one who has disrespected the Constitution and you have supporters who believe we should get rid of the Constitution! Just shut your mouth, you’re convicted on all counts!’

The post, which ignited an immediate push back from conservatives on social media, received over 1 million views on X.

‘Woman who implored supporters to physically get up in the faces of any Trump administration official has thoughts to share…,’ Fox News contributor Joe Concha posted on X.

‘Literally no one who supports Trump nor Trump wants to get rid of the Constitution,’ former U.S. Attorney and Executive Director of Right on Crime Brett Tolman posted on X.

‘These people are mentally ill,’ radio host Mike Sperrazza posted on X. ‘TDS is real.’

‘Such ugliness and I bet it goes all the way to the bone,’ author Juanita Broaddrick posted on X.

‘This woman is a corrupt criminal who has laundered over a million dollars in campaign cash to her daughter,’ Red State writer Bonchie posted on X.

Fox News Digital reached out to Waters’ office for comment but did not receive a response.

Waters was widely criticized for what many labeled a call to violence in 2018 when she encouraged her supporters, ‘If you see anybody from that Cabinet in a restaurant, in a department store, at a gasoline station, you get out and you create a crowd and you push back on them and you tell them they’re not welcome anymore, anywhere.’

Waters denied that she had promoted violence.

Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records in the first degree on Thursday. Each count carries a maximum prison sentence of four years. In total, Trump faces a maximum sentence of 136 years.

Moments after the verdict was delivered by the jury, the former president spoke to reporters in the hallway outside the courtroom.

‘This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt, as a rigged trial and disgrace. It wouldn’t give us a venue change,’ Trump said. ‘We were at 5% or 6% in this district, in this area. This was a rigged, disgraceful trial.’

Trump said ‘the real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people.’

Fox News Digital’s Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

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Politics

‘Disservice to the nation’: Former VP Pence breaks silence on Trump’s NYC conviction

Former Vice President Mike Pence reacted on Friday to the criminal conviction of former President Donald Trump in a New York City courtroom and said a ‘terrible message’ has been sent.

‘The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation,’ Pence told Fox News Digital.

‘No one is above the law, but our courts must not become a tool to be used against political opponents,’ Pence continued. ‘To millions of Americans, this was nothing more than a political prosecution driven by a Manhattan DA who ran for office on a pledge to indict the former president and this conviction undermines confidence in our system of justice.’

‘This conviction also sends a terrible message to the wider world about the American justice system and only further divides us at a time when the American people are struggling under the failed policies of the Biden administration at home and abroad,’ he added.

Pence continued, ‘Having been convicted in a court of law, the former president has every right to appeal this conviction and I trust it will be overturned on appeal in a manner that will restore public confidence in our system of justice and equal treatment under the law.’

Trump was found guilty on Thursday on all counts in his historic and unprecedented criminal trial, making him the first former president of the United States to be convicted of a crime.

Moments after the verdict was delivered by the jury, the former president spoke to reporters in the hallway outside the courtroom.

‘This was a disgrace. This was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt, as a rigged trial and disgrace. It wouldn’t give us a venue change,’ Trump said. ‘We were at 5% or 6% in this district, in this area. This was a rigged, disgraceful trial.’

Trump said ‘the real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people.’

Pence joined a long list of Republicans who are defending Trump against the conviction and has previously voiced opposition to the indictment against Trump.

‘I think the unprecedented indictment of a former president of the United States on a campaign finance issue is an outrage,’ Pence told CNN in March 2023. ‘And it appears to millions of Americans to be nothing more than a political prosecution.’

Pence, whose relationship soured with Trump after the Jan. 6 riots, wherein the president faulted him for refusing to send disputed electoral slates back to state legislatures in his then-role as president of the Senate, said in March he is not endorsing the former president.

‘It should come as no surprise that I will not be endorsing Donald Trump this year,’ Pence told Fox News at the time.

‘I’m incredibly proud of the record of our administration. It was a conservative record that made America more prosperous, more secure and saw conservatives appointed to our courts in a more peaceful world.’

Fox News Digital’s Charles Creitz and Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

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Politics

Trump guilty verdict reveals split among former GOP presidential primary opponents

Former President Donald Trump’s Republican presidential primary opponents offered a variety of reactions to the guilty verdict in his New York City trial, ranging from blasting Democrats for pursuing the charges against him to complete silence.

The jury found Trump guilty Thursday on all 34 counts of falsifying business records related to the hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the lead up to the 2016 presidential election.

South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott posted a video of himself on X blasting what he called a ‘hoax,’ a ‘sham’ and evidence of an ‘obsolete injustice justice system.’

‘DA Bragg and the judge should be ashamed of themselves. This isn’t just ridiculous, this actually erodes the confidence that Americans have in the justice system. Unbelievable,’ Scott said.

‘But good news is coming. DA Bragg, hear me clearly. You cannot silence the American people. You cannot stop us from voting for change. Joe Biden’s injustice, Joe Biden’s two-tier injustice system, weaponizing the justice system of the United States of America against a political opponent, un-American. Joe Biden, you’re fired. We the people stand with Donald Trump.’

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum wrote, ‘This verdict is a travesty of justice. The judge was a Biden donor. The prosecutors were Biden supporters. This Lawfare should scare every American. The American people will have their say in November,’ while entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy predicted the trial’s outcome would ultimately backfire, referencing District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s promise to ‘nail Trump,’ and Judge Juan Merchan’s daughter being a ‘Democratic operative.’

Former Vice President Mike Pence told Fox News Digital Trump’s conviction was ‘an outrage and disservice to the nation.’

‘No one is above the law, but our courts must not become a tool to be used against political opponents. To millions of Americans, this was nothing more than a political prosecution driven by a Manhattan DA who ran for office on a pledge to indict the former president and this conviction undermines confidence in our system of justice,’ he said.

‘This conviction also sends a terrible message to the wider world about the American justice system and only further divides us at a time when the American people are struggling under the failed policies of the Biden administration at home and abroad. Having been convicted in a court of law, the former president has every right to appeal this conviction and I trust it will be overturned on appeal in a manner that will restore public confidence in our system of justice and equal treatment under the law.’

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis wrote, ‘Today’s verdict represents the culmination of a legal process that has been bent to the political will of the actors involved: a leftist prosecutor, a partisan judge and a jury reflective of one of the most liberal enclaves in America — all in an effort to ‘get’ Donald Trump.’

‘That this case — involving alleged misdemeanor business records violations from nearly a decade ago — was even brought is a testament to the political debasement of the justice system in places like New York City,’ he wrote. ‘This is especially true considering this same district attorney routinely excuses criminal conduct in a way that has endangered law-abiding citizens in his jurisdiction.

‘If the defendant were not Donald Trump, this case would never have been brought, the judge would have never issued similar rulings, and the jury would have never returned a guilty verdict. In America, the rule of law should be applied in a dispassionate, even-handed manner, not become captive to the political agenda of some kangaroo court.’

Conservative commentator Larry Elder called the verdict an ‘outrage’ and declared that ‘a monster has been unleashed.’

‘If Democrats don’t think Republican AGs and DAs can’t unleash lawfare on Democrat politicians, think again!!!’ he added.

Businessman Perry Johnson wrote, ‘Today marks a troubling chapter in American history. This was always a political maneuver, not a legal one. The Biden Administration’s weaponization of the justice system is evident, showing that Democrats will go to any lengths to silence and eliminate political rivals.’

‘The American people recognize this as lawfare, and they understand its peril. President Trump will rightly appeal this unjust verdict — and he WILL WIN!’ he added.

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, a staunch Trump critic, took a different, not-so-surprising approach, calling on the verdict to be respected.

‘It is not easy to see a former President and the presumptive GOP nominee convicted of felony crimes; but the jury verdict should be respected. An appeal is in order but let’s not diminish the significance of this verdict,’ he wrote.

Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez and former Texas Rep. Will Hurd have so far remained silent since the verdict was handed down.

Representatives of Haley did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment. A spokesperson for Christie declined to comment.

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Politics

‘Great damage’: Elon Musk set to host Trump town hall after ripping NYC guilty verdict

SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk is set to hold a town hall with former President Donald Trump, as reported shortly after the former president was criminally convicted in New York City on Thursday.

Trump is expected to answer submitted questions with Musk on a live stream that will also be broadcast on NewsNation, The New York Post reported on Friday.

It is expected that Trump will answer submitted questions during the live stream event, which will also be broadcast in a partnership deal with cable channel NewsNation, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The exact timing of the town hall on X, a platform Trump was suspended from three years ago, is not clear.

Fox News Digital reached out to Musk’s team and the Trump campaign but did not immediately receive a response.

‘This will be interesting,’ the tech billionaire posted on X.

The original plan was for the event to be a debate before the Biden campaign declined an invitation due to the previously negotiated debates scheduled with Trump, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the event and the Biden campaign’s thinking.

Musk is also reportedly planning a similar town hall with independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.

Musk spoke out on X following the news of Trump’s conviction in his criminal trial, arguing that the development chips away at the faith Americans have in their legal system.

‘Indeed, great damage was done today to the public’s faith in the American legal system,’ Musk posted on the platform he owns. ‘If a former President can be criminally convicted over such a trivial matter – motivated by politics, rather than justice – then anyone is at risk of a similar fate.’

Trump and Musk have recently developed a friendly relationship, and they reportedly speak on the phone several times a month. Musk is also believed to be under consideration for an advisory role if Trump returns to the White House.

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Stocks

MUST SEE! Top 10 Stock Picks For June 2024

Get Dave and Grayson’s Top 10 ChartList here.

In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, join Dave and Grayson as they run through top 10 charts to watch in June 2024! They’ll cover breakout strategies, moving average techniques, relative strength, and much more. You don’t want to miss these insights into market dynamics and chart patterns that could impact your trading decisions.

This video originally premiered on May 31, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Stocks

Stock Market Shows Its Magic: An Exciting Finish

What a turnaround! Today’s PCE data, which was in line with expectations, initially sent the stock market higher. Then, it experienced a significant selloff, but things changed in the last 30 minutes. Equities pushed higher into the close, revealing that investor optimism isn’t dead. The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) closed higher, and the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) was flat.

Today’s stock market behavior shows how it can turn on a dime, and there’s no way to anticipate what it’ll do. The PCE came in as expected, which, realistically, shouldn’t have altered investor sentiment. The expectation of possibly getting one rate cut in 2024 is still in play, so it made sense to see the selloff for most of the trading day. But that big push higher shortly before the close makes it difficult for an investor to be pessimistic.

A Closer Look at the Trading Action

For most of the day, Tech stocks sold off significantly. The weekly chart of the Nasdaq Composite (see below) shows that, if it hadn’t been for the rise at the end of the trading day/week/month, the index could have closed below its first support level (blue dashed line). Instead, it was able to close well above the support level.

Could that mean the index will try hitting a new high next week? It’s something to anticipate, but always be prepared for the market to go either direction.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. The index looked like it would close below its first level, but buying pressure dominated, and the index closed for the week on a relatively optimistic note.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Not much has changed. The Nasdaq is trading above its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is trending upward, as is the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Like the weekly chart, the daily chart of the Nasdaq Composite also shows some clear lines in the sand. Today’s range was significant and, while it looked like there could have been some short-term technical support breaks, the index ended the week without much to worry about.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF NASDAQ COMPOSITE. There are clear lines of sand in the daily chart of the Nasdaq, and there is enough buying interest to keep the index above the initial support levels.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

You can blame the tech stock selloff on semiconductors. To understand this better, it makes sense to bring up a chart of NVIDIA (NVDA), since the price action of the stock tends to correlate with the price action in the Nasdaq and S&P 500.

The daily chart of NVDA below shows a clear resistance level. From March to May, NVDA’s stock price hit resistance at around $965 and a few times before it gapped higher.

CHART 3. DAILY CHART OF NVDA. Could the stock fall to its previous resistance level?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

NVDA’s recent earnings saw the stock price surge higher, but the buying seems to have exhausted. The question is whether NVDA’s stock price will retrace back to the $965 level. For a while, it looked like that could happen. We’ll have to wait until next week to see which way investor sentiment leans.

A look at the StockCharts MarketCarpet gives a good visual of today’s market action. You can clearly see that NVDA and Amazon, Inc. (AMZN) experienced the largest losses, but, overall, there was a lot of green. The dark green squares represent the largest percentage gainers, and one that stands out in the Tech sector is Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM). After falling almost 20% on Thursday after a dismal earnings report, the stock gained 7.5% on Friday.

CHART 4. THE BIG PICTURE. The StockCharts MarketCarpet gives a good overview of how the market performed.Chart source: StockCharts.com.

Interestingly, it wasn’t so green in the Tech and Communications Services sectors. But the other sectors were doing relatively well. Two stocks that should be on your radar are Gap Stores (GPS) and Deckers Outdoor Corp. (DECK).

CHART 5. RETAIL STOCKS SURGE. Gap, Inc. (GPS) and Deckers Outdoors (DECK) are seeing significant strength. These two stocks should be on your radar.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes.

GPS rose on strong Q1 earnings and strong guidance. DECK’s shares have been rising on the popularity of their Hoka shoes. The rise in these stocks indicates the retail sector continues to be strong.

The Takeaway

Overall, May ended on a positive note. Maybe the “Sell in May and go away” strategy will have to wait. Next week, there will be some earnings, but the focus will be on macro data. Will the data be enough to move the needle? The jobs number will probably have the largest impact if it comes in hot.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 closes up 0.80% at 5,277.51, Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.50% at 38,686.32; Nasdaq Composite down 0.01% at 16,735.02$VIX down 10.71% at 12.92Best performing sector for the week: EnergyWorst performing sector for the week: TechnologyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR); Vistra Energy Corp. (VST); NVIDIA (NVDA); Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI); Robinhood Markets (HOOD)

On the Radar Next Week

May Manufacturing PMIMay Services PMIApril JOLTS Job OpeningsMay Non-Farm PayrollsEarnings from CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD), Hewlett Packard (HP), and Lululemon Athletica (LULU)

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Stocks

Tech Stocks Sell Off, But AI Shines!

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the bullish close in the markets while highlighting areas to stay away from. She also shares why AI-related areas of Tech remain positive and what drove the Retail sector into a new uptrend. The potential downtrend reversal in Energy stocks was also discussed.

This video originally premiered May 31, 2024. You can watch it on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in, be sure to check ou t the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks so you can make informed investment decisions.

Stocks

Top 5 Stocks in “Go” Trends | Fri May 31, 2024

Add the GoNoGo Plug-In for StockCharts Here

Top 5 Stocks in “Go” Trends

Trend Continuation on Rising Momentum

GoNoGo Charts® highlight low-risk opportunities for trend participation with intuitive icons directly in the price action. The resurgence of momentum in the direction of the underlying price trend is an excellent entry opportunity, or the chance to scale up positions.

GoNoGo Icons® illuminate these events on the chart with green solid circles (or red circle to highlight continuation of NoGo trends). When GoNoGo Trend® is painting blue or aqua bars, a green solid circle will appear below price each time GoNoGo Oscillator® finds support at zero.

Below are the top 5 stocks/ETFs in “Go” trends with surging momentum by volume in the S&P 500 as of the daily closing price action:

StockCharts Scan for GoNoGo “Go” Trend Continuation

Apple, Inc. (AAPL)

§ GoNoGo Icons signaled a trend continuation on Friday (05/31/24).

§ After a sharp reversal last Friday, price climbed higher finishing the week on strong “Go” conditions painting blue bars back at prior highs.

§ GoNoGo Oscillator found support at the zero line this week, building a small squeeze before rising positive on Thursday and Friday.

§ AAPL has traded on light relative volume for the past three weeks.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC)

§ GoNoGo Trend returned to strong blue “Go” conditions to conclude the trading week just above prior highs at $40/share.

§ After a heavy wide range of trading Thursday, price closed right back up at the open.

§ GoNoGo Icons signaled a trend continuation on Friday (05/31/24).

§ GoNoGo Oscillator ended the week in positive territory finding support at zero.

§ Volume picked up during Friday’s strong rally.

Arch Capt. Grp. Ltd. (ACGL)

§ GoNoGo Trend sustained “Go” conditions, though it softened to weak form aqua bars the second half of the trading week.

§ GoNoGo Icons signaled a trend continuation on Friday (05/31/24).

§ GoNoGo Oscillator ended the week in positive territory after testing the zero line on heavy relative volume.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)

§ GoNoGo Trend returned to strong blue “Go” conditions to end this trading week.

§ This recovery follows weakening trend conditions and corrective price action.

§ GoNoGo Icons signaled a trend continuation on Friday (05/31/24).

§ GoNoGo Oscillator retested and found support at the zero line for the 4th time in May showing a cluster of continuation icons.

§ GoNoGo Squeeze® built small grids as momentum compressed at the neutral zero line for the 2nd time in the past two trading weeks.

§ Momentum broke to positive territory on Friday – this time rallying on heavy relative volume.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

§ GoNoGo Trend ended the trading week on strong blue “Go” conditions.

§ GoNoGo Icons signaled a trend continuation on Friday (05/31/24).

§ GoNoGo Oscillator entered the trading week at the neutral zero line, building a squeeze, before breaking back into positive territory again on Friday.

§ JPM is trading on light relative volume.

Stocks

Hindenburg Omen Flashes Initial Sell Signal

While the S&P 500 did manage to finish the week above tactical support at 5250, one of the most widely-followed macro technical indicators recently registered an initial sell signal for the second time in 2024. Today we’ll explain the three components of the Hindenburg Omen, show why this pattern is common at major market tops, and discuss the additional signals we’d need to observe to confirm a bearish outlook for the S&P 500 using this powerful indicator.

The Hindenburg Omen was created and popularized by market strategist Jim Miekka, and is based on three factors that he discovered were quite common at major market tops. It’s worth noting that a number of different versions of the Hindenburg Omen are used in the present day; here, we’re describing the version used on StockCharts.com.

First, the NYSE Composite Index ($NYA) needs to be in an uptrend. In this case, we want to see the 50-day rate-of-change to be greater than zero. This is an important first step, because we’re only looking for a potential market top if the market is already in an established uptrend!

The 50-day ROC for the NYSE Composite Index turned positive in November 2023, soon after the October 2023 market low. This rate-of-change has remained above zero until just this week.

Second, there needs to be at least 2.5% of NYSE members making new 52-week highs and at least 2.5% of NYSE members making new 52-week lows on the same day. You may initial think that an extreme number of new highs would suffice, as that would imply some sort of “overbought” market condition. Or perhaps an expansion in new lows would make sense, because then the market would have moved higher with weaker breadth conditions.

But Miekka’s analysis showed that market tops are usually marked by indecision, and, by looking for a situation where there are a healthy number of both new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows, we can confirm this unstable market state. We can see in the chart that we saw 2.5% of new highs and new lows on the same day earlier in the month of May.

One quick note: this is where different charting providers have used different settings for the Hindenburg Omen, ranging from 2.2% to 2.8% of NYSE listings as the threshold for this second factor.

Finally, the McClellan Oscillator needs to turn negative, that is, break below the zero level. This tactical market breadth indicator is based on the cumulative advance-decline line, and a break below zero represents a short-term bearish rotation in breadth conditions.

I’ve color-coded this chart green to highlight positive breadth and red for negative breadth conditions over the past 12 months. Note how we recently rotated back below the zero level, providing the final piece of evidence for an initial reading on the Hindenburg Omen.

So what would make this a complete and confirmed Hindenburg Omen, similar to what we’ve seen a previous major market tops? It’s important to observe a second signal within one month of trading, as Miekka found that multiple signals in a relatively short period of time tended to further validate the indicator.

Here, I’ve isolated a “composite” indicator that tracks the three components outlined above. When all three are firing, the indicator reads +3.0. You’ll notice the signal from last week, as well as the previous signal from February 2024. Note that we never received that second confirmatory signal in February, so the Hindenburg Omen was never confirmed.

When was the last time we had a valid and confirmed Hindenburg Omen? In December 2021, just before the January 2022 market top, we experienced two sets of confirmed factors within one month. Before that, the next previous signal was during the COVID peak in February 2020!

So while this initial reading from last week does not fully confirm a Hindenburg Omen top, it should alert investors to be ready for the downside that often comes after a confirmed sell signal. And while the indicator does not necessarily imply potential downside targets, a brief history lesson of the S&P 500 shows the previous signals have often preceded major market declines!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.