Archive

2024

Browsing

On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe shows the three keys he hunts for when identifying reversals and strong trends, giving a few examples and then showing one that is developing now. He then highlights similar techniques he uses while reviewing the Sectors. In addition, he moves through the commodities to show which have the best charts. He then covers the stock requests that came through this week, including .

This video was originally published on June 5, 2024. Click this link to watch on StockCharts TV.

Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show.

Music streamer Spotify Technology (SPOT) isn’t a cheap stock. But it might not be considered overvalued either, despite its earnings having been rather “spotty” (pardon the pun) and dipping into negative territory before last October.

Spotify’s performance has been remarkable over the past 16 months, with a consistent upward trajectory and a 98.4 SCTR score. It recently surpassed its highest point reached in the past 52 weeks, indicating the possibility of a sustained growth trend.

The stock popped up on a StockCharts New 52-week Highs scan on Tuesday. If you checked StockCharts’ Symbol Summary on Tuesday, as shown below, it also popped on five other bullish scans (all of which are a great way to find potential trade opportunities, by the way).

What’s the Big News on Spotify?

Essentially, Spotify announced a price increase for all its plans, particularly in the US, aiming to boost profitability and cash flow. This means significantly improved cash flow (it’s aiming for a billion dollars in free cash flow by the end of the year). Spotify’s gross profit has also risen, driven by increased revenue and reduced operating costs.

However, the exciting stories may be its audiobook bundling strategy and future growth drivers via advertising and video monetization (imagine what the company can do in those areas). Despite not being cheap, SPOT has shown strong growth potential, and analysts are generally bullish on the stock. (Deutsche Bank maintains a $400 price target, and other analysts are forecasting a high of $485 by the end of next year.)

The Macro Picture

What do you get when you combine technical know-how with fundamental contrarian speculation? Probably something like the breakout in April to March of 2023 (see blue arrow in the weekly chart of SPOT below). At the time, Spotify was at the tail-end of a year-long series of consecutive negative earnings.

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF SPOTIFY. Note that the March to April 2023 technical breakout kicked off the uptrend despite negative earnings.

Those who waited for Spotify earnings to improve significantly would have entered later in October of that year (see green arrow), which was half the distance between SPOT’s trough in 2023 and today’s peak.

The blue dotted line at $387 marks Spotify’s all-time high. While this will likely present a resistance level for the stock, it’s still below analysts’ high price targets for 2024 and 2025 ($400 and $485, respectively). 

The daily chart of SPOT below shows that if you like to buy on strong breakouts, Tuesday would have been the day to pull the trigger (either during the breakout or after the close). 

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF SPOTIFY. Note that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator is above the zero line, indicating rising bullish momentum.

If you missed it and are looking for a second entry, then you might wait for SPOT to decline toward the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA); note how closely it follows the 50-day SMA and how traders look to it as a level of support. However, be aware that other indicators are showing mixed signals.

The divergence between Spotify’s price and the Money Flow Index (MFI) (see red dotted line in top panel) indicates near-term bearishness. On a bullish note, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) presents a scenario in which momentum appears to be picking up when Spotify is outperforming its sector (Communications; XLC) by 60%.

The Takeaway

While buying breakouts above significant high marks may be a part of some traders’ strategies, others may feel a bit more hesitant, worried they’re buying a top. Spotify presents this conundrum. Still, fundamental targets are a ways away, and if SPOT does drift downward, the price will likely find support at the 50-day SMA (potentially a favorable second entry for those who missed entering the first time around).

Also, note that SPOT’s earnings are just around the corner—July 23, before the market opens. Again, you will find much of this information and more from the StockCharts Symbol Summary for SPOT.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

America’s largest home improvement store, Home Depot, Inc. (HD), has benefited from a long period of investor interest and traded at a premium valuation for several years. However, the recent environment of slowing consumer spending and higher interest rates has finally caught up with HD; the risks are to the downside, below $300.

After rallying toward its all-time highs just shy of $400, HD has pulled back below its key $350 and $335 support levels and is at risk of continuing lower. HD’s relative performance recently reached a new 52-week low. This suggests further downside risks, with targets at the next support lower, just below $300.

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF HOME DEPOT (HD). The price of HD stock has broken below a key support level and could see further downside.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Trading at 21x forward earnings, HD is still trading at a premium, given that analysts are only expecting Earnings-Per-Share (EPS) and Revenue to grow at low single-digit levels, while net margins sit below 10%. The reality is that with relatively thin margins and consumer spending further slowing down, HD will have a tougher time commanding the same type of premium valuation relative to the market. 

Options are inexpensive now, so buying downside exposure is cheap, and can be done by going out to August and buying the $325/300 Put Vertical @ 6.50 debit. This entails buying a higher strike put and selling a lower strike one (see below).

Buying the Aug $325 Puts @ $9.35 DebitSelling the Aug $300 Puts @ $2.85 Credit

FIGURE 2. EXAMPLE OF A PUT VERTICAL SPREAD OPTIONS TRADE FOR HD.

This would risk a total of $650 ($935 – $285) per contract if HD is above $325 at expiration, while potentially making nearly three times that of $1,850 per contract if HD is below $300 at expiration.

In this video from StockCharts TV, Julius uses the S&P 500 Sector Indexes to assess the long term price trends on the completed monthly charts for May, then discusses the long-term relative trends on a monthly RRG. Julius highlights the continued relative strength for Technology, Communication Services and Financials.

This video was originally broadcast on June 4, 2024. Click anywhere on the icon above to view on our dedicated page for Julius.

Past episodes of Julius’ shows can be found here.

#StaySafe, -Julius

The average cost of keeping an American home cool from June to September is set to hit $719, nearly 8% higher than last year, according to new projections from advocates for low-income households. That level would be the highest in a decade, and a steep jump from the $573 average in 2021.

Organizations distributing federal financial support expect they’ll be able to help roughly 1 million fewer families pay their energy bills this year. That’s partly because government funding for the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) fell from $6.1 billion last fiscal year to $4.1 billion for the current one, the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA) and the Center for Energy, Poverty and Climate said in a report released Monday.

“It’s inflation in the sense that you have to spend more to cool your house, but you’re using more of it,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, which represents state directors who manage federal aid dollars for home energy costs. “So you can’t blame the price. This is more the price of climate change.”

2024 is expected to rank among the five warmest years in recorded history, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has said, and this year has a 61% chance of being the hottest on record. Already last month, scorching heat and humidity descended on parts of Texas, the Gulf Coast and South Florida.

Last summer, too, was severely hot. Phoenix, for example, endured a record-breaking 31 consecutive days of temperatures at or above 110 degrees Fahrenheit.

Electric costs this summer will vary geographically, from as low as $581 on average for the season in Wisconsin, Michigan, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, to as high as $858 in Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Louisiana, the report said. While bills in the latter region are forecast to rise only 1.8%, the mid-Atlantic is expected to see a 12% increase in summer electric bills since last season.

Many households face imminent risks, the report said, from taking on debt to finance their cooling bills to suffering potentially dangerous utility shut-offs for nonpayment. Only 17 states and Washington, D.C., offer residents some protections against shut-offs, the report said, and nearly 1 in 5 “very low income” families have no home air conditioning at all.

LIHEAP was originally devised to help low-income residents cover their heating bills during cold winter months. But soaring summertime temperatures have added pressure to the program. This year about 80% of its funds will cover heating expenses, leaving just 20% to supplement cooling bills, the advocacy groups estimated.

“These estimates could, in fact, understate the final costs of home cooling this summer if temperatures continue to reach record levels,” the report warned.

LIHEAP administrators in many states have been sounding alarms in recent years over higher seasonal temperatures, saying rising summertime demand is outstripping the available funding. Unlike safety-net programs like Medicaid or food stamps, LIHEAP can’t guarantee support to all qualifying households. If demand is too high, funds can simply run out.

Brian Sarensen, who manages Washington state’s LIHEAP aid, previously described “the Catch-22 of trying to provide everything to everybody that needs it, and just not having enough money to do so.”

“We may be sacrificing how much heating assistance we give in the winter to hold over for the summer,” he told NBC News last summer, when a series of blistering heat waves drove up air conditioning usage across the country. “But at the same time, then you’re thinking: Am I leaving somebody to freeze to death?”

Some relief could come this year in states that are offering residents income-based subsidies on their electricity bills, Wolfe said.

For example, there’s Connecticut — a state in the Northeast, where electricity generation is generally more expensive for utilities — which launched a financial hardship program last December allowing consumers to avoid shut-offs and receive monthly discounts of either 10% or 50% depending on their income.

Already, though, ballooning energy bills are squeezing the least well-off, the report warned. Researchers found 23.5% of households couldn’t pay their energy bill for at least one month over the past year, up from 21.3% the year before. The steepest jump was among households with children, rising to 33.1% from 28.4% in the prior period.

To cover energy bills, many low-income families are making difficult cutbacks elsewhere. More than 1 in 3 said they reduced or went without basic household expenses at least once in the last 12 months due to energy costs, with the biggest increase again among those with kids — for a rate of 41.5%.

“We’re now approaching a period where people can’t just sweat it out,” said Wolfe. “It’s pretty grim.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Normal trading resumed late Monday morning after the New York Stock Exchange said a technical issue had led to large fluctuations in the prices displayed for certain stocks, including Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.

A little after 11 a.m. ET, the NYSE said the issue involved the market’s main electronic stock price publisher, but that most stocks had since reopened or were in the process of reopening.

“Shortly before noon, the issue was resolved and trading in the impacted stocks resumed,” the exchange said in a statement. “The NYSE is reviewing potentially impacted trades.”

In a statement, the publisher, Consolidated Tape Association, said the issue may have been related to a software update that impacted price ‘bands’ or the electronic guardrails that limit volatility. It said it had resolved the issue by reverting operations to a data center where the previous software was still in use.

Some 50 stocks were affected, the website indicated, and trades in those companies were halted for about an hour.

The issue caused the NYSE to incorrectly show so-called Class A shares of Berkshire down 99% from their price of about $620,000 a share. Those shares resumed trading at normal levels around 11:35 a.m. ET.

Other shares affected included AMC Entertainment, Chipotle and GameStop.

Earlier, GameStop shares soared after trader Keith Gill, known as ‘Roaring Kitty’ on social media, apparently posted that he was increasing his bet on the stock.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Spotify is increasing its prices in the United States for many of its subscription plans.

In a statement on its website, the audio streaming service said the increases were necessary so that it can ‘invest in and innovate on our product features and bring users the best experience.’

Here are the changes:

The company still offers a limited-service ad-supported tier, as well as a $5.99 plan for students. That price is not changing.

It’s only the second time Spotify has raised U.S. prices. The company is now consistently profitable, CEO Daniel Ek said during its latest earnings announcement, although its most recent monthly active user growth figure narrowly missed targets.

In April, Bloomberg News reported that price increases were coming in part to cover the cost of audiobooks, a service Spotify is trying to boost in part to reduce its reliance on music — royalty payments for which still comprise the largest part of its budget.

The increases come as some U.S. companies are announcing price cuts amid signs that consumer spending is flagging.

“Slower labor market momentum will continue to limit income growth and push more families to exercise spending restraint amid reduced savings buffers and higher debt burdens,” Gregory Daco, EY-Parthenon’s chief economist, said in a note Friday. “Factoring increased price sensitivity, household spending momentum will gradually cool.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Jeep plans to grow U.S. sales of its plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by as much as 50% this year as it leans into the technology as a bridge between its traditional gas-guzzling SUVs and all-electric vehicles amid a slower-than-expected sales pace of EVs.

The Stellantis brand expects to sell 160,000 to 170,000 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, in the U.S. this year, an increase of 40% to 50% from last year, Jeep CEO Antonio Filosa told CNBC.

The target comes as Jeep launches its first all-electric SUVs in the U.S., beginning with the Wagoneer S.

“It’s the best time to be flexible, as we are,” Filosa said during an interview Thursday after unveiling the brand’s new EV in New York. “One of the pillars of growth for the market is going to be freedom of choice.”

PHEVs, which combine an internal combustion engine with EV technologies, could help accelerate consumer adoption of electrified vehicles, as a sort of stutter step to all-electric models.

PHEV sales at the level Jeep is expecting this year would top Stellantis’ total 2023 U.S. sales of the vehicles, at roughly 143,000 units. They also would outperform an industry forecast for 27.5% segment growth this year, according to AutoPacific. That compares with the consulting and data firm’s 17% growth for EVs.

Jeep’s PHEV sales last year totaled 113,113 units, including 67,429 Jeep Wranglers and 45,684 Jeep Grand Cherokees. Through the first quarter of this year, sales totaled 31,750, up 47% from the same period a year earlier. The brand is first in the U.S. in PHEV sales.

Jeep has leaned into PHEVs more than others to offset sales of the brand’s gas-guzzling SUVs amid tightening emissions and fuel economy standards.

The next Jeep vehicles are expected to be the Wagoneer S EV this fall, followed by a Wrangler-like EV called the Recon and a replacement for the discontinued Cherokee midsize SUV during the first half of next year. The automaker also will add new plug-in “range-extender” models to its gas-powered Wagoneer and Grand Wagoneer large SUVs in 2025.

“We have a game plan. We have a business plan, and we believe that price position and product wise, we are perfect to meet the volume we want to make,” Filosa said.

Both hybrids and plug-in hybrids have a traditional engine combined with EV technologies. A traditional hybrid, such as the Toyota Prius, has electrified parts, including a small battery, to provide better fuel economy to supplement the engine.

Plug-in hybrids typically have a larger battery to provide for all-electric driving for a certain number of miles until an engine is needed to power the vehicle or electric motors.

Both Filosa and Stellantis Chief Technology Officer Ned Curic said the company is evaluating whether to launch traditional hybrid vehicles in the U.S. in addition to its plug-in models.

“We’re deciding at the moment how will the market respond to our hybrids,” Curic said during a separate interview. “We have a good mix on our roadmap between EV, PHEV, [and internal combustion engine].”

The “range-extender electric vehicle” models, or REEVs, operate slightly differently than typical hybrids. The vehicles can operate as a zero-emissions EV until the vehicle’s battery dies and an electric onboard generator — powered by a 3.6-liter V6 engine — kicks on to power the vehicle after its initial charge.

Stellantis’ first REEV vehicle is expected to be the Ram Ramcharger full-size pickup truck later this year.

“This is quite a good option,” Curic said. “I’m confident that vehicle is going to do exceptionally well.”

The REEVs are expected to be priced higher than PHEVs (which already carry a premium compared to traditional gas-powered vehicles) but below all-electric models, according to Curic.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A produce company is recalling cucumbers it shipped to 14 states over concerns they may be contaminated with Salmonella.

Fresh Start Produce Sales Inc. of Delray, Florida, said in a voluntary recall notice posted on the Food and Drug Administration’s website that testing on a sample in Pennsylvania had revealed the presence of the bacteria.

The FDA is conducting whole-genome sequencing to determine if this sample is related to an ongoing Salmonella outbreak investigation, according to the release.

Boxes of cucumbers from Fresh Start Produce Sales Inc.U.S. Food and Drug Administration

The states that received the cucumbers are: Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, North Carolina, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia.

They were shipped between May 17 through May 21.

The company said the products were “unlikely” to be in stores, but that consumers should check with their retailer or place of purchase to verify whether the cucumbers had been sold where they shop.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

DETROIT — Ford’s latest project out of the Motor City is the restoration and reopening of an abandoned train station, for decades a symbol of Detroit’s downfall and now the automaker’s new technology campus.

The $950 million project encompasses the 18-story former train station called Michigan Central Station — once the state’s marquee transit building — an adjacent 270,000-square-foot building and other, supporting facilities.

The 30-acre “Michigan Central” campus and station was initially announced in 2018 and slated to open by 2022. However, the coronavirus pandemic and the extensive work needed to renovate the station delayed its reopening. Ford is celebrating the restoration of the century-old train station on Thursday.

Following the event Thursday, the ground floor of the train station building will be open to the public through June 16, before the first commercial occupants begin moving in this fall.

The new campus comes at a precarious time for Ford investors as the company continues to restructure its business. It also comes as many companies attempt to downsize office space and fill their current buildings with employees who grew accustomed to working from home during the pandemic.

A photo of Michigan Central’s main concourse prior to its renovation sits in the newly restored room toward the back of the building.Michael Wayland / CNBC

Specifically in Detroit, a stark juxtaposition has emerged: In April, Ford’s crosstown rival General Motors announced it would be downsizing from its towering Renaissance Center headquarters along the city’s riverfront to two floors in a nearby building that’s under construction.

Yet Ford Chair Bill Ford Jr. said he believes the investment made in the historic train station is a crucial part of the automaker’s future, including in aspects of talent acquisition and retention.

“We’re in a war for talent, our industry and our company,” Ford, who spearheaded the project, told CNBC. “And you need to give talent two things: You need to give them, first, really interesting problems to solve, and then you have to give them a great place to work. With Michigan Central, we checked both those boxes.”

Bill Ford decided to purchase the dilapidated building after years of trips to Silicon Valley for his Fontinalis venture capital firm and during his tenure as a member of the eBay board of directors. He’s long been outspoken about the need for the traditional automotive industry to compete with newer tech companies in both product and talent acquisition.

Ford said attracting top talent to Detroit is “getting better” but noted that “it’s a tall order” to convince workers from California or the East Coast to relocate to Detroit and work for Ford.

“If you can show them a place like Michigan Central, not just in its beauty, which alone is incredible, but then talk about the kind of things that will be going on there, then it becomes, I think, a really valuable resource for the company going forward,” he said.

The Michigan Central campus is located southwest of Detroit’s main business district in a trendy neighborhood known as Corktown. It’s about 10 miles down the road from Ford’s world headquarters in Dearborn, Michigan.

The Michigan Central campus in total spans 1.2 million square feet of commercial space, including retail, restaurants and hospitality. It was awarded $300 million in state, local and historic rehabilitation tax incentives, according to officials.

The restored grand waiting room inside Ford’s Michigan Central Station in Detroit.Michael Wayland / CNBC

Ford officials went to great lengths to restore the station to its original glory after decades of vandalism and decay. The project involved 3D-scanning the rooms, matching materials and referencing historical photos to recreate parts of the building.

This was especially true for the first floor of the train station, where a grand room features massive windows, an arcade and a large concourse full of marble and terrazzo flooring, Mankato stone and other unique materials.

Architects and designers opted to leave some graffiti on walls to represent the station’s dormant years after closing in 1988.

As one measure of Ford’s determination, officials traced the facility’s original limestone to a quarry in Indiana only to find out it had since closed. Michigan Central worked with the owners to reopen the quarry.

“It has been painstakingly and lovingly restored to, wherever possible, to its original condition,” said Josh Sirefman, Michigan Central CEO, during a tour of the project. “Before we start activating it with lots of things, it’s probably in its most pristine condition.”

Some graffiti from when Michigan Central sat dormant for more than 30 years was purposely preserved to represent that part of the station’s history.Michael Wayland / CNBC

Amid national commercial real estate challenges, about two-thirds of the tower has scheduled tenants or planned use cases, officials said. That includes an unnamed restaurant and hotel, pending rezoning approval.

The adjacent building, known as the Detroit Public Schools Book Depository, already houses more than 600 employees from nearly 100 startup companies.

“It really is the beginning of the ecosystem that I want to create,” Bill Ford said. “There’s going to be a lot of experimentation taking place down there.”

Ford plans to house at least 2,500 employees in the building, primarily members of the company’s electric vehicle and connected services teams. Roughly 1,000 of those employees are expected to move into the station’s tower by the end of this year, Ford said.

Other building occupants could include local universities, other businesses and a restaurant. However, officials declined to release a full list of expected tenants. Google, a founding partner of the project, runs its “Code Next” program, which teaches students how to code, from the Book Depository building.

Ford said he expects future automaker employees to be able to collaborate with other occupants of the station’s tower as well as the startups occupying the Book Depository building. 

Michigan Central’s main concourse newly restored room.Michael Wayland / CNBC

Resurrecting the train station and surrounding campus is the latest project Bill Ford, a great-grandson of company founder Henry Ford, has undertaken in the Motor City.

He was instrumental in moving the Ford family-owned Detroit Lions from suburban Pontiac to a new stadium, appropriately named Ford Field, in downtown Detroit in 2002. He also was part of the team that brought the Super Bowl to the city in 2006.

And he redeveloped the company’s River Rouge Assembly plant into a “green” production facility amid calls to close it. It’s now a tourist destination for the production of the Ford F-150 full-size pickup.

The renovated “reading room” off of the grand waiting room at Ford’s Michigan Central Station in Detroit.Michael Wayland / CNBC

Ford, who served as CEO of the automaker from 2001 to 2006, described Michigan Central as a continuation of such projects. He called the effort a “legacy project” for himself as well as for those who have been able to work on it.

“I’m very proud of both of those [prior projects], but I think this is going to kind of put an exclamation point on it because this will be a wonderful place to work but it will also be a wonderful place for the public to come,” Ford said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS