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WASHINGTON — Jeff McNeil is fading away, though unlike so many vestiges of the New York Mets, the condition is not permanent. He’s simply been absent from the lineup − manager’s decision − for the past two games, the byproduct of an ugly stat line and an overall value that puts him below a replacement player.

It was just two years ago that McNeil was an All-Star, worth 5.7 WAR on a 101-win team, a playoff dalliance that inspired owner Steve Cohen to double down on his $43.3 million annual investment in Max Scherzer with a similar outlay for similarly aged Justin Verlander.

We all know what happened: The 2023 Mets, the most expensive team in the game, did not inspire, winning 75 games with $320 million in payroll, plus a $100 million tax bill. Significant change unfolded, though what the Mets are left with is, like McNeil’s plight, not unlike the iconic photo from ‘Back To The Future,’ where Marty McFly must maintain history lest he be erased from the picture.

Scherzer and Verlander? They’re gone, physically, to the two Texas teams, though the commitment remains: The Mets are paying the Rangers $30 million and Houston about $17 million for both not to pitch for them.

First baseman Pete Alonso? The three-time All-Star is just four months from agent Scott Boras shopping his wares on the open market, with only Cohen’s checkbook, like McFly’s determination to get his parents together during time travel, keeping him in the picture.

All things Mets: Latest New York Mets news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

What remains is a club that’s somehow a notch below mediocre − at 26-35 − yet still capable of crushing the soul, with six losses in games they led entering the ninth inning.

Indeed, closer Edwin Díaz might best epitomize where the Mets were two years ago − his stunning entrance music, 118 strikeouts and 32 saves punctuating so many of their 101 victories − and where they are now. 

It was Díaz’s unfortunate knee injury that set a grim tone for 2023. And now he’s authored four of the blown saves the Mets have suffered, his 5.40 ERA landing on the injured list with a shoulder impingement.

Díaz still has three years remaining on his $102 million contract, almost certain to be around when the Mets answer the prevailing question after years of big spends, dashed hopes and regrouping.

What now?

‘When he speaks, I’m all ears’

Carlos Mendoza was talking about McNeil, but really could have been speaking on the Mets as a whole.

‘He cares,’ the Mets’ rookie manager says of his second baseman who’s batting just .192 in his last 22 games, ‘and he wants to win and he wants to perform. The one thing is, he’s not going to stop working.

‘And he’ll find a way to get through it.’

There aren’t many doubts the Mets will do the same. It’s not like Cohen’s vast wealth and hunger for a title have dissipated. It’s just that a fat check sometimes doesn’t have a worthy home and besides, buttressing the minor league system isn’t a bad idea, either.

An interesting winter reload lurks: Will Cohen drive up the price for megastar Juan Soto, running the risk he simply returns to the Yankees, anyway? Is Alonso a lifetime Met? Will new club president David Stearns reunite with one of his Milwaukee aces, the Baltimore rental Corbin Burnes?

For now, they are a curious mélange: Holdovers from the previous decade like Alonso, Brandon Nimmo and McNeil, a handful of short-time vets like J.D. Martinez and Harrison Bader, a few promising to very promising youngsters like third baseman Mark Vientos and slugging, rehabbing catcher Francisco Alvarez.

Occasionally, the mix turns up some gold.

Such as the kinship Vientos found on what might be his last trip on the Queens-Syracuse Class AAA shuttle. This time, veteran infielder Jose Iglesias was on the Syracuse roster, lending his dozen years of major league experience to the up-and-down prospect.

‘I got to give him a lot of credit,’ says Vientos. ‘When I was down in Syracuse he was one of the mentors in my ear, telling me how to play the game the right way.

‘And the guy’s done it for 13 years in the league. He knows what it takes to be a 10-year big leaguer. When he speaks, I’m all ears.’

Vientos was summoned once more from Class AAA on May 15, and since then might have seized the third base job permanently from Brett Baty, who was optioned to Syracuse on May 31.

In 13 games since May 18, Vientos posted an 1.152 OPS and Monday night reached base four times and slugged a home run in a win over the Nationals. His third year with a taste of the bigs might be the one that sticks.

‘Conviction. On time. Ready for pitches in the strike zone,’ says Mendoza of Vientos. ‘When he’s short to the ball and putting that barrel on that baseball … The way he’s controlling the strike zone is pretty impressive.’

To say nothing of his work defensively, probably his biggest improvement since he first came to the majors in 2022 and also since the club sent him to Syracuse rather than Queens on Opening Day.

‘People are going to talk about how he’s murdering the baseball, which he is,’ says Alonso, ‘and that deserves endless amount of talk and praise because he’s been doing so great for us offensively.

‘But the one thing I don’t think he gets credit for, and I tell him this, is how awesome and polished he looks defensively. How he’s transformed from last year to this year is very admirable.’

Baty’s optioning coincided with Iglesias’s recall, and after spending 2023 without a major league job, the longtime shortstop is now keeping second base warm for McNeil.

Yet it’s not just the six hits in his first 15 at-bats he’s providing.

‘It’s a privilege wearing this uniform,’ says Iglesias, 34, speaking specifically about the Mets gear but also about being a big leaguer again. ‘We all mature, each and every year. It’s perfect timing for me, to be on this great team that wants to win. Nothing but great things.

‘So many ways you can contribute to a team. Not necessarily with the bat or the defense − but the energy and you keep pushing your teammates and supporting them.

‘It’s just about vibe − it’s a long season. We’re going to fail. We’re going to succeed. We’ve got to stay as positive as we can.’

The future will get here soon enough.

Highway 101

For now, 101 games remain with this alignment. Two wins in D.C. gave them their first series win in a month; the finale will be followed by a flight to London for two games with the near-unbeatable Philadelphia Phillies.

There’s nearly two months before they’d blow anything up at the trade deadline, yet it would also take weeks of winning baseball to shake this club’s maddening inconsistency.

So, what now?

‘Every day’s a new opportunity,’ says Alonso, who hit his team-leading 14th homer Tuesday. ‘And there’s a ton of baseball left.’   

That proclamation will include McNeil, who might sit a third consecutive game with another left-hander opposing the Mets. For now, he‘s a symbol of the team’s limbo. But he is signed through 2027, plenty of time to reinsert himself in the picture.

‘When I put him back in the lineup,’ says Mendoza, ‘I know he’ll be ready to do it.’

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

BOSTON – The LeBron James-Kyrie Irving mutual admiration party continued Wednesday.

One day after James offered effusive praise of Irving, calling him of the most skilled players to play in the NBA and wishing he still played alongside his former teammate, Irving, the Mavs star guard playing in his fourth NBA Finals, responded.

“Got to love this, man,” Irving said. ‘I have a great reaction. It’s appreciated. There’s a lot of gratitude there, as well. Obviously, I’m in a different age, different place in my life. So is he. I think we both have been able to mature and really appreciate what we got a chance to accomplish.

“I think there were some things that got in the way of our relationship when I was a little bit younger. Now that I’m able to vocalize how I feel as a man, be comfortable in it, stand on my square, my beliefs, where I’m coming from, I feel like our relationship’s different because of that now.”

Irving requested a trade from Cleveland after the Cavaliers played in their third consecutive NBA Finals in 2017. The decision to leave was stunning, considering the Cavaliers were still a championship-caliber team.

Irving ended up in Boston, Dallas’ opponent in this season’s Finals.

“Just a mutual respect there for what we brought to the table,” Irving said. “His leadership, my leadership style, I think it meshed very well. I was learning a lot from him that I’m appreciative for the rest of my life.

“Man, when he says comments like that, I think back to us having those moments where we’re down in a series, up in a series, we’re really demanding greatness from each other. Off the court, our families meshing well.”

The Cavaliers won the 2016 championship with James and Irving leading the way. Irving made the winning shot in Game 7 against Golden State, and James had the block that helped ensure the victory.

“I feel like I’ve been built for this moment because I’ve gone through some of the things I’ve gone through in my past with some of the guys that have transcended the game.” he said, adding, “Shoutout to LeBron for that. Knows how to stir up a media storm, get everybody in here talking about us.”

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Over the past few days, anyone with a platform and a microphone has weighed in on Indiana Fever rookie Caitlin Clark and her value to the WNBA.

Whether she is responsible for the increased eyeballs on the league is not debatable, but when Chicago Sky guard Chennedy Carter fouled her in the Fever’s victory last Saturday, the discussion became different.

Carter was assessed an after-game flagrant 1 foul and the ire of some when she declined to talk about Clark in the postgame press conference but went straight to social media to proclaim Clark’s only skill was a three-point shot.

Enter Hall of Famer Nancy Lieberman into the discussion, as she commented on what she would have done if Carter fouled her in that moment.

‘If I were Caitlin Clark, I would’ve punched her in the face,’ Lieberman said on Run It Back on FanDuel TV. ‘I’m from New York, and I would have told her to, ‘(expletive) off.’ That would actually cure the problem.’

Well, then.

Lieberman praised Carter as a good, tough, physical basketball player but then ripped Clark’s teammates.

‘Where’s Caitlin Clark’s teammates? I would be pissed as (expletive) at my teammates,’ she said, saying that some sports greats like Michael Jordan and Wayne Gretzky had enforcers to protect them. ‘It’s (expletive). Someone has to come to this kid’s, I don’t want to say rescue.’

Clark, who is averaging 15.6 points, 6.4 assists, and 5.1 rebounds a game, is back in action on Friday when the 2-9 Fever take on the winless Washington Mystics.

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General Motors CEO Mary Barra says the storied automaker’s plan to turn its fleet 100% electric will now play out ‘over decades.’

In an exclusive interview with NBC News, Barra clarified the company’s previously stated intention to eventually phase out gas-powered cars.

‘I wouldn’t say we’re recommitting,’ Barra said of the company’s pledge, first announced more than six years ago. ‘You know, we said back in 2018 that we’re committed to an all-electric future. But as we make this transformation, it’s going to happen over decades. And that’s why I couldn’t be more proud of our gas-powered fleet as well.’

In a statement after this article was published, a spokesperson for GM said the company is actually aiming to exclusively sell electric vehicles by 2035.

Barra’s remarks come amid a softening sales environment for electric vehicles in the U.S. In April, Cox Automotive reported that Kelley Blue Book data showed that the first quarter of 2024 saw the first quarter-over-quarter decline in EV sales since the pandemic and that sales were up just 3% year-on-year.

General Motors CEO Mary Barra.NBC News

Last spring, GM announced it was discontinuing its Chevy Bolt EV, which had previously made up the vast majority of the company’s electric vehicle sales, in favor of a new EV platform called Ultium that serves as the battery system across its remaining electric fleet.

Barra told NBC News that GM now has offerings for virtually any consumer preference, whether it’s gas or electric.

‘I want people to choose an EV because they love every aspect about it,’ she said. ‘And if it doesn’t fit their lifestyle, in that same showroom, we’ve got a great gas-powered vehicle that I think will meet their needs.’

Tesla continues to dominate EV sales in the U.S., and although it has gradually given up some market share, it continues to command 50% of EV purchases. Barra confirmed that GM-made EVs will have access to Tesla charging stations, as well as those managed by Pilot Flying J — something that will help alleviate concerns about EV charger availability.

Barra expressed hope that further expansion of the EV charging network will make choosing an electric vehicle easier for consumers.

GM has seen success in EVs for at least one its more recent models. Kelley Blue Book data reported by Cox showed about 1 out of every 6 Cadillac purchases is an electric vehicle — the most of any brand not focused entirely on EVs. Cadillac was also one of nine manufacturers that recorded more than 50% year-on-year growth in EV sales.

It’s indicative of the current trend in the electric vehicle market: They are becoming more popular at the higher end. Cox reported that Cadillac achieved an approximately 500% year-over-year increase in EV sales thanks to robust sales of its Lyriq crossover, which costs $58,590 to $63,190.

It stands in contrast to the Bolt, which was previously the most affordable EV on the market.  

Barra did not directly refer to the Bolt, but said EVs will have to become more affordable if widespread adoption is to occur.

‘Everyone has been talking about to really drive EV adoption, we’ve got to get to EVs that are affordable,’ she said. ‘And when you think this — we’re going to have a model out later this year that starts around $35,000. Then with the tax credit you think about $7,500. This is under $30,000.’

There are some limits to that $7,500 tax credit so closely associated with EV purchases. Receiving that credit depends on the buyer’s income and where the vehicle and its battery components were made. Certain models are excluded from the United States’ EV tax credit program. Those restrictions are part of the Biden administration’s effort to promote EV and battery components made in the U.S.

Former President Donald Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has expressed opposition to the Biden administration’s EV push, calling the effort ‘radical.’

Barra said a second Trump administration would not alter the company’s future plans.

‘We will be just committed because we think in the long term [EVs are] better,’ she said. ‘And even right now — I mean, get in an EV and drive it. It’s instant torque. You never have to go to the gas station, especially if you have at your home or where you live, whether it’s an apartment or your house, you have accessibility charging.’

She continued: ‘I think over the long term when we have a very robust charging infrastructure, people are going to choose EVs, because they’re better.’

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Dollar Tree announced Wednesday it is considering a sale of its more grocery-focused Family Dollar brand.

The company had recently shared plans to close almost 1,000 Family Dollar stores in an attempt to revamp the struggling business. The discounter closed more than 500 locations during its fiscal first quarter, it said Wednesday.

“We are already beginning to see progress in this targeted strategy in the streamlined Family Dollar banner,” the company said in a press release. “The unique needs of each banner at this time — transformation at Family Dollar and growth acceleration at Dollar Tree — lead us to the decision to conduct a thorough review of strategic alternatives for the Family Dollar business.”

Dollar Tree bought Family Dollar in 2015 for almost $9 billion. The business has been struggling ever since to compete against its major rival, Dollar General.

The company has not set a deadline or definitive timetable for the sale review process, and is working with JPMorgan and Davis Polk & Wardwell advisors in its review.

Shares of Dollar Tree fell about 2% in premarket trading Wednesday.

The update came alongside Dollar Tree’s fiscal first-quarter earnings report, in which Family Dollar lagged.

Same-store sales for the company’s Dollar Tree brand rose 1.7% while Family Dollar sales climbed only 0.1%. Enterprise sales rose 1%.

Revenue rose to $7.63 billion, up about 4% from $7.32 billion a year earlier.

The company said it expects sales for the second quarter will range from $7.3 billion to $7.6 billion, with sales growth for the Dollar Tree banner of between 2% and 4% and sales for the Family Dollar segment approximately flat.

Here’s how the discounter did in its first fiscal quarter compared with what Wall Street was anticipating, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:

The company’s reported net income for the three-month period that ended May 4 was $300.1 million, or $1.38 cents per share, compared with $299 million, or $1.35 per share, a year earlier. Adjusting for one-time items, including the cost of store closures, the company reported earnings of $1.43 per share.

The company also mentioned that it incurred losses totaling $117 million as of early May, after a tornado destroyed the company’s distribution center in Marietta, Oklahoma on April 28. The facility sustained significant damage, and the inventory in the facility as well as the facility itself are not salvageable, Dollar Tree said in the report.

The company said it expects the incurred losses to be offset by insurance recoveries.

The dollar store segment is going through tough times as lower-end consumers pull back in the face of higher costs. Although a shift to cost-cutting efforts sounds like it would have benefitted dollar stores, the discounters are increasingly losing market share to value retailers like Walmart and e-commerce retailers like Temu.

Dollar Tree fell short of expectations for holiday-quarter sales in its fourth quarter earnings report, meanwhile its main competitor Dollar General surpassed estimates.

Dollar Tree has been in the midst of a broader turnaround effort since current CEO and former Dollar General CEO Richard Dreiling took the helm in early 2023.

Shares of the company have pulled back roughly 15% in 2024.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Walmart on Wednesday said it will offer new training programs and certifications to fill high-demand roles across its business, such as HVAC technicians, opticians and software engineers.

The big-box retailer said it will also offer another reason for hourly store workers to stick around: a bonus of up to $1,000 per year.

Walmart, the nation’s largest private employer, has been investing in its stores and its workforce as it tries to hang on to the title of the nation’s top retailer, with Amazon hot on its heels. The retail giant aims to retain market share gains, particularly in the grocery department, during a period of high inflation.

Early this year, the company announced that store managers could earn more than $400,000 a year, including bonuses, as it began offering $20,000 of stock grants in April. Walmart also kicked off a $9 billion project to upgrade and modernize more than 1,400 of its stores, representing more than a quarter of the total Walmart stores across the country.

The company said its average hourly wage is nearly $18, up by about 30% over the past five years. The starting pay in stores ranges from $14 to $19, depending on the location. Walmart raised its minimum wage in January 2023.

Yet Walmart, which reported about $648 billion in total revenue last year and has a market value of nearly $537 billion, still faces criticism for its wages. The company’s total annual compensation for the median employee was $27,642 in the most recent fiscal year, according to the company’s 2024 proxy report. For a family of four people, that falls below the poverty line of $31,200, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

That compares with the median compensation of $26,696 at Target and $36,274 at Amazon, according to those companies’ most recent proxy reports. Those calculations include part- and full-time workers.

Walmart’s new programs give employees more ways to move into higher-paying jobs. The company is piloting a six-month training program in the Dallas-Fort Worth area with 100 store and warehouse associates who want to work in skilled trades, such as technician roles for facilities maintenance, refrigeration and HVAC. Those skilled trade jobs pay between $19 and $45 per hour, said Lo Stomski, the company’s chief talent officer.

The initiative was inspired by a similar program for another high-demand role: truck drivers. The associate-to-driver program has produced more than 500 new drivers since launching in spring 2022, according to the company.

Workers who participate in the programs are not required to keep working for Walmart, but Stomski said they will be needed as Walmart adds automation and robotics across its warehouses and online fulfillment centers.

Walmart said Wednesday that it’s also increased the number of skills certificates it offers to more than 50, up from five in 2020. The certifications can help employees move into salaried or leadership positions in stores, clubs and supply chain facilities. On average, employees receive the certificates in four months, Stomski said.

This week’s announcement coincides with two of Walmart’s major events. Its shareholder meeting will be held virtually on Wednesday. On Friday in its hometown of Bentonville, Arkansas, Walmart will throw its annual associates celebration, a combination of a pep rally and an employee awards program that draws thousands of workers from across the globe and features surprise celebrity appearances and musical performances.

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A top European Union court said Wednesday that McDonald’s has lost its Big Mac trademark in the 27-nation bloc, ruling in favor of Irish fast food rival Supermac’s in a longrunning legal battle.

The EU General Court said in its judgement that the U.S. fast food giant failed to prove that it was genuinely using the Big Mac name over a five-year period for chicken sandwiches, poultry products or restaurants.

The Big Mac is a hamburger made of two beef patties, cheese, lettuce, onions, pickles and Big Mac sauce, according to the company’s website.

The decision is about more than burger names. It opens the door for Galway-based Supermac’s expansion into other EU countries. The dispute erupted when Supermac’s applied to register its company name in the EU as it drew up its expansion plans. McDonald’s objected, saying consumers would be confused because it already trademarked the Big Mac name.

Supermac’s filed a 2017 request with the EU’s Intellectual Property Office to revoke McDonald’s Big Mac trademark registration, saying the U.S. company couldn’t prove that it had used the name for certain categories that aren’t specifically related to the burger over five years. That’s the window of time in Europe that a trademark has to be used before it can be taken away.

A Supermac’s restaurant in Dublin.Niall Carson / PA Images via Getty Images file

After the regulator partially approved Supermac’s request, McDonald’s appealed to the EU court.

“McDonald’s has not proved that the contested mark has been put to genuine use” in connection with chicken sandwiches, food made from poultry products or services associated with operating fast-food, drive-through or take-out restaurants, the court said, according to a press summary of its decision.

Supermac’s portrayed the decision as a David and Goliath-style victory. Managing Director Pat McDonagh accused McDonald’s of “trademark bullying to stifle competition.”

“This is a significant ruling that takes a common-sense approach to the use of trademarks by large multi-nationals. It represents a significant victory for small businesses throughout the world,” McDonagh said in a statement.

The Irish company doesn’t sells a sandwich called the Big Mac but does have one called the Mighty Mac with the same ingredients.

McDonald’s was unfazed by the ruling, which can be appealed to the European Court of Justice, the bloc’s highest court, but only on points of law.

“The decision by the EU General Court does not affect our right to use the ‘BIG MAC’ trademark,” the company said in a press statement. “Our iconic Big Mac is loved by customers all across Europe, and we’re excited to continue to proudly serve local communities, as we have done for decades.”

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The Federal Aviation Administration has granted Archer Aviation a key certification that gets the electric air taxi maker closer to eventually flying travelers, the company said Wednesday.

Archer is making electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft, or eVTOLs, and won orders and backing in 2021 from United Airlines, which says the new technology could reduce carbon emissions.

Carriers have been investing in or ordering eVTOL aircraft, which take off and land vertically like helicopters and whose developers say they can cut down on emissions in congested areas. United, for example, says passengers could take them to and from the airport in big cities, such as between Manhattan and United’s hub in Newark, New Jersey.

“Today we have received the Part 135 certification, which allows us to effectively become an airline so we can carry passengers,” Archer CEO Adam Goldstein told CNBC.

The process has taken Archer about two years: It submitted more than 2,000 pages of documents and 14 manuals outlining operational procedures, training and maintenance.

Now Archer has to get its four-passenger aircraft, called “Midnight,” certified by the FAA, which the company is currently working on, Goldstein said. That could put the air taxis into service as early as next year, the company estimates. Goldstein said he couldn’t give an exact time frame but when asked about certification delays on variants of older aircraft, he noted that Archer’s aircraft are much simpler with far fewer components than commercial jets.

Visitors to the 2023 Dubai Air Show sit inside an Archer Aviation Midnight aircraft.Christopher Pike / Bloomberg via Getty Images file

Archer’s demonstrator aircraft, Maker, can fly up to 60 miles at top speeds of 150 mph. The company’s Midnight aircraft has a range of 100 miles, though Archer aims to use it for shorter distances.

United is working with Archer on what it would look like to enter the electric aircraft into service.

“This is not something that is a push of a button,” said Andrew Chang, managing director of United Airlines’ venture arm. “It’s matching how quickly [Archer] can progress the operational side and how to fit that within our airport hubs.”

Archer has partnered with automaker Stellantis to produce hundreds of the electric air taxis.

Archer’s rivals have also made strides. Joby Aviation received its Part 135 certificate two years ago, has a partnership with the U.S. Air Force, and has won orders and backing from Delta Air Lines. On Tuesday, Joby said it plans to acquire the autonomy division of autonomous aviation company Xwing.

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Nvidia passed Apple in market cap on Wednesday as investors continue betting on the chipmaker behind the artificial intelligence boom. It is now the second-most valuable public company, behind Microsoft.

Nvidia also hit a $3 trillion market cap milestone on Wednesday after shares rose over 5%. At market close, Nvidia had a market value of $3.019 trillion, versus Apple’s, which stood at $2.99 trillion. Microsoft is the most valuable publicly traded company, with a market cap of $3.15 trillion, as of Wednesday.

Nvidia shares have risen more than 24% since the company reported first-quarter earnings in May and have been on a tear since last year. The company has an estimated 80% market share in AI chips for data centers, which are attracting billions of dollars in spending from big cloud vendors.

Investors are also becoming more comfortable that Nvidia’s huge growth in sales to a handful of cloud companies can persist. For the most recent quarter, revenue in its data center business, which includes its GPU sales, rose 427% from a year earlier to $22.6 billion, about 86% of the company’s overall sales.

Meanwhile, Apple shares are up only about 5% this year, as the iPhone maker’s sales growth has stalled in recent months. In its most recent quarterly earnings report, Apple said overall sales dropped 4% and iPhone sales fell 10% from the year-ago period. Apple faces strategic questions and issues about demand in China, manufacturing and mixed reactions to its new virtual reality headset, Vision Pro.

Apple was the first company to reach a $1 trillion and $2 trillion market cap. It long held the title of most valuable U.S. company but was passed by Microsoft earlier this year. Microsoft has also benefited from investor demand for AI infrastructure.

Nvidia has been more volatile as a stock than Apple. Founded in 1991, the company was primarily targeting gaming, selling hardware to play 3D computer games. More recently, it sold cryptocurrency mining chips and cloud subscription services.

Nvidia shares have gone parabolic as its AI business has developed, rising more than 3,290% over the past five years. The company announced a 10-for-1 stock split in May.

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Bad economic news so far has been mostly positive for the stock market, as investors worry over whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates.

There’s a danger, though, of overdoing it, where too much bad news could signal a significant downturn and even recession ahead.

That’s the dilemma the market finds itself in approaching a week of critical data, mostly focusing on the all-important U.S. labor market, which in turn provides signals about the health of the consumer.

“Bad news has been good news for equities over the past two months … but if growth deteriorates too much, bad news can turn into bad news,” Ohsung Kwon, equity and quant strategist at Bank of America, said in a client note Monday.

Kwon points out that during that period, the S&P 500 and U.S. dollar have diverged in almost perfect unison.

The dollar index has been on a steady though gradual decline, while the large-cap equity index has been on a similar steady though gradual rise. The trend has become particularly acute over the past month, which has seen the S&P 500 climb about 3%. The greenback often rises on bad news as investors seek the safety of cash and equivalents, while the stock market gains on good news.

At the same time, economic data has generally deteriorated, or at least not met Wall Street forecasts.

The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which measures actual data against consensus expectations, began sliding in mid-April, turning negative in late May while falling about 120%. The countercyclical measure indicates that expectations were outpacing reality.

For the most part, bad economic news likely could help convince the Fed that the time is right to start lowering interest rates. The one exception is higher inflation, which would push the Fed toward tighter monetary policy.

The central bank has held its benchmark borrowing rate in a range of 5.25%-5.5% since July 2023, the highest level in some 23 years. Fears about a more hawkish Fed on inflation have caused multiple bouts of volatility in the stock market.

That brings the market to this week’s run of data, which includes surveys on job openings and private job creation, concluding Friday with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls report. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect growth of 178,000 jobs for the month, which would be about in keeping with April’s 175,000, and likely hold the unemployment rate at 3.9%.

If the estimate is about correct, it would put job creation in the “Goldilocks range” of 125,000 to 175,000 of not too hot and not too cold, according to Bank of America experts.

However, anything below 125,000 could mean a reversal from the bad-news-is-good-news trend, in which a rising unemployment rate could trigger a yardstick known as the Sahm Rule, the bank said. Devised by economist Claudia Sahm at New Century Advisors, the rule holds that if the unemployment rate averaged over three months is half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low, the economy is in the early stages of recession.

As of May, the 12-month low would be 3.5%, meaning the jobless rate would have to hold a three-month average of 4% to meet the Sahm hurdle. Based on the prior two months, the unemployment rate would have to rise to 4.3% in May for that to happen.

However, Bank of America sees that as unlikely, expecting above-consensus job growth of 200,000.

“As long as inflation remains in check, stronger growth should also be positive for stocks,” Kwon wrote.

Still, BofA’s strategy team expects market volatility around the report and believes the market is underpricing the chance of a market move.

The firm recommends an options strategy known as a “straddle” as a way to capitalize on a potential market swing.

The move involves buying both puts and calls on S&P 500 options that expire on the same day and have the same strike price. It pays off when the index either rises or falls from the strike price by more than the premium paid. BofA said the trade finished in the money six of the previous eight weeks.

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