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Former President Trump attended a roundtable discussion at a church in Detroit on Saturday afternoon in an effort to reach out to Black voters.

During the discussion, 180 Church Pastor Lorenzo Sewell told Trump that he was ‘humbled’ by the former president’s visit. 

‘President Obama never came to the ’hood, so-to-speak, right? President Joe Biden, he went to the big NAACP dinner, but he never came to the ’hood. So thank you,’ Sewell said, eliciting applause from the audience. 

Later Saturday, Trump appeared at the ‘People’s Convention’ of Turning Point Action. 

Fox News Digital has reached out to the Biden campaign for a response to Sewell’s remarks. 

Sewell told ‘Fox & Friends First’ on Friday that he couldn’t remember the last time a president laid out a plan for the Black community until Trump created the Platinum Plan, which included approximately $500 billion for Black businesses and churches. 

‘Those metrics matter to us. So we’re going to hold him accountable to the Platinum Plan that he produced,’ Sewell said. 

Biden was in Detroit last month, where he spoke at the NAACP’s 69th Fight for Freedom Fund Dinner, repeating talking points about bringing people together and slamming Trump for being too divisive.

Trump’s appearance comes as Biden is set to attend a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles later Saturday, headlined by Hollywood actors George Clooney and Julia Roberts, alongside former President Obama.     

The Biden campaign said Saturday night’s event is expected to raise at least $28 million. 

Fox News Digital’s Elizabeth Heckman contributed to this report. 

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Editor’s note: This is the sixth in a series of profiles of potential running mates for presidential candidate Donald Trump on the 2024 Republican Party ticket.

The race to determine who will be Donald Trump’s running mate this November is continuing to heat up, with the former president telling Fox News last week he has ‘sort of a pretty good idea’ who he’ll select.

The identity of that person remains a mystery, but a number of prospective contenders were recently asked to provide documents to Trump’s team as part of the vetting process, including firebrand Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, who some insiders say could be the key to flipping working-class Democrat voters in a number of consequential battleground states.

‘J.D. Vance has become a fixture on the road for Donald Trump and is extremely popular with the Trump base,’ one top GOP strategist told Fox News Digital, referencing Vance’s frequent appearances with Trump on the campaign trail and beyond.

‘He would be a lot of help across the entire Rust Belt and could help pick up working-class Democrat votes in places even outside his own state of Ohio. He would be an asset everywhere, really, but especially in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.’

The three states mentioned were all won by Trump in 2016 when they constituted part of the so-called ‘blue wall’ for Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton but flipped to President Biden in 2020.

All three are once again taking center stage in the presidential race and could be the deciding factor for who wins the presidency this year. Vance’s blue-collar upbringing, which he detailed in his bestselling 2016 memoir, ‘Hillbilly Elegy,’ particularly appeals to many voters across those states in the same fashion Trump did during his first presidential run, another insider argued.

‘[Vance] capably handles hostile media interviews with the poise and precision of a Yale Law School graduate while also sharing an authentic connection with blue-collar voters in the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. So, it’s easy to see why he’s on Trump’s list of potential picks,’ said GOP strategist Matt Wolking, who served as deputy communications director for Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign.

‘A combat veteran and a good friend of Donald Trump Jr., Vance is a fresh face from the populist, noninterventionist, union-friendly wing of the new Republican Party,’ Wolking added, referencing Vance’s service in the Marine Corps and deployment to Iraq.

Wolking noted some potential downsides to Vance’s selection include that he would be the youngest vice president in 70 years, and, considering he was elected to the Senate in 2022, has only held elected office for 18 months as of June.

‘He has only one general election under his belt in a state Trump won by eight points,’ he added.

Another GOP strategist with experience in presidential campaigns told Fox that because Trump is working hard to court the business community, Vance’s ‘anti-big business inclinations would give some of those potential donors major heartburn.’

Others who have been floated as possibilities to join Trump on the Republican ticket include House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, Arkansas Gov. Sarah Sanders, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Trump has suggested he will likely wait until July’s Republican National Convention in Milwaukee to name his pick.

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One of the most notorious far-left groups in the nation just handed 60 employees their pink slips.

It’s not the first time the Southern Poverty Law Center has seen a mass exodus from its workforce, but this round of layoffs may signal an important shift in the political winds just as the national election cycle begins to heat up.

As an erstwhile staffer claimed on X, formerly known as Twitter, the SPLC’s recent downsizing comes even while the non-profit is ‘hoarding’ over $1 billion of donor funds in reserves. While that assertion dwarfs much more reliable reporting tabbing the number just north of $160 million, what would appear to be a gross exaggeration actually provides a perfect window to understand the shell game the SPLC has been playing on the American people for the last four decades.

After all, exaggeration and outright lies have been the common currency at the SPLC for decades.

After gaining a reputation for successfully bringing to an end what was left of the Ku Klux Klan through lawsuits in the early 1980s, the SPLC shifted into full-time fundraising mode under its co-founder, Morris Dees.

A member of the Direct Marketing Association’s Hall of Fame, Dees was unceremoniously booted from the SPLC in 2019 while longtime president Richard Cohen resigned in disgrace amid swirling allegations of racism and sexism at company headquarters—a lavish facility employees have dubbed ‘The Poverty Palace.’

And don’t kid yourself into thinking that anything has changed. In 2021, one ex-SPLC staff member wrote at The Daily Beast that even the follow-up efforts to address this toxic culture were designed to ‘protect the reputation of SPLC and not to enact or recommend changes that would benefit staff—changes that were desperately needed.’

Apparently sniffing out the fact that the con was on decades earlier, the entire legal department resigned in protest. This was a group that could read the writing on the wall. As one former employee, Bob Moser, put it in a 2019 article for The New Yorker, ‘It was hard, for many of us, not to feel like we’d become pawns in what was, in many respects, a highly profitable scam.’

Of course, pawns only have value if they can remove an opponent’s pieces from the board. The key to that goal has been the SPLC’s absurd ‘Hate Map,’ which for years has lumped together KKK holdouts with mainstream conservatives and conservative organizations—including my employer, Alliance Defending Freedom—in a blatant attempt to push us to the margins of American life.

That hasn’t slowed us down. Since 2011, ADF has been blessed to argue and win 15 cases at the U.S. Supreme Court and hundreds more in lower courts. As the high court was deciding one of those cases, protecting donor privacy, the SPLC launched its ‘Hate Free Philanthropy’ campaign, which gives a not-too-subtle go at bypassing the ruling by urging private companies to dox our donors anyway.

Tellingly, the SPLC’s round of layoffs comes just days after releasing its annual update to the laughable ‘hate group’ document, which one federal judge—an Obama appointee—deemed ‘entirely subjective.’ Included on the list were grassroots parental rights groups like Moms for Liberty and physician groups who oppose experimenting with transgender medical interventions like cross-sex puberty hormones on children.

That’s wildly out of step with most of the country. Polling reported by The Washington Post shows that most Americans agree with the position of doctors on the SPLC’s hate list that the law should protect minors from harmful puberty-blocking regimens.

Meanwhile, the SPLC’s animus toward peaceful, religious Americans prompted the Federal Bureau of Investigation to issue a field memo targeting Roman Catholics who celebrate the Latin Mass. The blowback caused the FBI to retract the memo and spurred a congressional investigation.

The SPLC has overplayed its hand with the American people. Disagreement is not discrimination or hate. We’re tired of seeing our neighbors slandered as bigots and bullied from polite society simply because they have the nerve to say what everyone else is thinking.

The only question remains: Will the political left more broadly learn this lesson, or will it be left to ex-SPLC staffers to think things over in the unemployment line?

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The White House is taking aim at congressional Republicans over their support for ‘MAGAnomics’ and former President Donald Trump’s ‘across-the-board tariffs’ plan, which it claims would raise prices for families and worsen inflation.

In a Friday memo to ‘allies and interested parties,’ White House deputy press secretary Andrew Bates slammed Republicans for ‘targeting Medicare and Social Security for cuts, pushing tax welfare for the super-rich, and supporting across-the-board tariffs that would raise costs and taxes for hardworking families.’

‘Yesterday congressional Republicans met to plot a 2025 agenda that involves historic tax increases on the middle class in the form of high tariffs, then gives tax handouts to big corporations that are overcharging Americans despite inflation decreasing,’ Bates wrote.

Trump met with both Senate and House Republicans on Thursday during his trip to Capitol Hill. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., said afterward that the former president ‘briefly floated the concept of eliminating the income tax and replacing it with tariffs.’

‘What’s more, the lead House Republican for budget issues, Jodey Arrington, recently wrote, ‘Unchecked mandatory spending on programs like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security and welfare represent a growing threat to our economic security and potentially our way of life,’’ Bates said in the memo.

Pointing to other recent reporting, Bates claimed that ‘in addition to extending the Trump tax giveaway for billionaires and multinational companies, congressional Republicans want even further corporate tax windfalls that will add another $1 trillion to the deficit.’

President Biden ‘rejects this dangerous MAGAnomics agenda,’ Bates noted.

‘His plan would protect and strengthen Medicare and Social Security, further cut the deficit by making rich special interests pay their fair share, and to crack down on the corporate greed that is ripping off American families as inflation falls,’ he wrote in the memo. ‘Republican officials have stood against every aspect of that plan, even defending junk fees and price gouging.’

Bates insisted the ‘MAGAnomics summit puts into relief the stark choice between President Biden’s plan for an economy in which economic growth flows to the middle class, and an economy in which hardworking families are sold out to billionaires and the biggest corporations, forced to pay whatever big corporations want to charge while stripped of the Medicare and Social Security benefits they pay to earn.’

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Karoline Leavitt, the Trump campaign’s national press secretary said, ‘The Biden campaign is lying because they are losing. President Trump’s first-term pro-growth economic policies created record-low mortgage, interest, and unemployment rates and made inflation virtually non-existent. Americans can expect President Trump’s second-term economic agenda will have the same impact and end Joe Biden’s inflation crisis that continues to rob working families of thousands of dollars every month.’

She added, ‘President Trump delivered on his promise to protect Social Security and Medicare in his first term, and President Trump will continue to strongly protect Social Security and Medicare in his second term.’

Leavitt insisted the ‘only candidate who poses a threat to Social Security and Medicare is Joe Biden – whose mass invasion of countless millions of illegal aliens will, if they are allowed to stay, cause Social Security and Medicare to buckle and collapse.’

Trump’s trip to the nation’s capital this week made numerous headlines, as he met for the first time in several years with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. 

Trump told Republican senators that there was tremendous unity in the party, and promised to ‘bring back common sense to the government’ if he’s elected in November.

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CNN has finalized the rules for the first presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle, which is less than two weeks away.

The campaigns of President Biden and former President Donald Trump have agreed to the rules, CNN said on Saturday, noting that it is not ‘impossible’ for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to join the pair on stage.

To qualify for the CNN showdown, a candidate must have received 15% support in four separate national polls, and be on the ballot in enough states to reach 270 electoral college votes. Currently, Kennedy is on the ballot in six states, totaling 89 potential Electoral College votes.

The 90-minute debate, scheduled to take place on June 27 in Atlanta, will be hosted by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be the first in-person face off between Biden and Trump since they stood alongside one another on debate stages during the 2020 cycle.

Ahead of the election, both candidates accepted the network’s invitation to debate last month and agreed to certain rules and formats that were outlined in CNN letters to their respective campaigns.

CNN said there will be two commercial breaks during the debate, and candidates will not be allowed to consult with other members of their campaign during that time.

The network also noted that candidates’ podiums and positions will be determined by a coin flip, their mics will be muted outside of speaking time, and they will only be provided with a pen, a notepad and a bottle of water.

Candidates will not be allowed to bring props or prepared notes.

For the first time in recent history, the debate between presidential contenders won’t have a studio audience.

The network said debate moderators ‘will use all tools at their disposal to enforce timing and ensure a civilized discussion.’

In order to qualify for the debate, candidates must also meet the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the US Constitution to serve as president. Biden and Trump both meet those requirements. Other candidates on non-major-party tickets – Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein – also meet those requirements.

All five have also filed a formal statement of candidacy to the Federal Election Commission, another requirement to participate in the debate.

National polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting include those that are sponsored by CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, The Wall Street Journal and The Washington Post.

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The Supreme Court seemed to signal interest this week in taking up a challenge launched by Hawaii against big oil companies to hold them liable for climate change, and some Democrats are suggesting the high court is ‘captured’ for the fossil fuel industry. 

The Supreme Court on Monday asked the Justice Department to weigh in on a petition to hear a lawsuit brought by the City of Honolulu against major fuel companies including Sunoco, Exxon and Chevron, claiming the companies’ products cause greenhouse gas emissions and global warming without warning consumers about the risks. 

The city employed a series of state laws like public nuisance and trespass measures and said the companies should pay billions to the state to abate the effects of climate change like weather events, sea level rise, heat waves, flooding and global warming generally. 

The high court gave DOJ no deadline for the solicitor general’s input, but its request indicates a high likelihood the court wants to hear the case. 

The energy companies first appealed to the Hawaii Supreme Court, arguing federal law prevents individual states from effectively shaping energy policies for all states. 

But that court disagreed and ruled that the case should advance to trial. One justice said ‘the Aloha Spirit inspires constitutional interpretation.’

‘It is important for the U.S. Supreme Court to grant review. The Hawaii Supreme Court’s decision flatly contradicts U.S. Supreme Court precedent and federal circuit court decisions, including the Second Circuit which held in dismissing New York City’s similar lawsuit, ‘such a sprawling case is simply beyond the limits of state law,’’ Theodore J. Boutrous, Jr. of Gibson, Dunn and Crutcher, lawyer for the Chevron Corporation told Fox News Digital. 

‘These meritless state and local lawsuits violate the federal constitution and interfere with federal energy policy,’ he said. 

But some Democrats and liberal advocates have begun preemptively criticizing the court.  

Last week, Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, D-R.I., who sits on the Senate Judiciary Committee, posted on X saying, ‘[t]his captured Court’s delays of and interference in fossil fuel emissions regulations have already saved the polluters hundreds of billions — way more than they spent to capture it. But there is no end to fossil fuel polluters’ greed and entitlement.’

Lisa Graves, the executive director at the left-wing watchdog group True North Research, told the Rolling Stone that fossil fuel companies’ ‘efforts to evade legal accountability are being aided by… the very same groups that helped the majority of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court get their seats on the bench.’ 

The Federalist Society, a conservative legal group, and affiliated lawyers and groups have discussed the case in seminars and journal articles advocating that the Court take up the case. The Federalist Society has made recommendations to Republican administrations for justices and judges across the country.

But Fox News Digital has previously reported that the Hawaii litigation has been pushed by liberal dark money groups and legal partners.

Hawaii Supreme Court Chief Justice Mark Recktenwald, in his opinion rejecting the energy companies’ arguments, wrote, ‘Defendants knew of the dangers of using their fossil fuel products, ‘knowingly concealed and misrepresented the climate impacts of their fossil fuel products,’ and engaged in ‘sophisticated disinformation campaigns to cast doubt on the science, causes, and effects of global warming,’ causing increased fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, which then caused property and infrastructure damage in Honolulu.’

Last year, Fox News Digital reported last year that Recktenwald quietly disclosed in May that he presented for a course in collaboration with a little-known judicial advocacy organization funded by left-wing nonprofits, the Environmental Law Institute (ELI). According to the ELI, the Climate Judiciary Project is designed to educate judges across the country on how to handle climate change litigation that comes before them.

‘As the body of climate litigation grows, judges must consider complex scientific and legal questions, many of which are developing rapidly,’ CJP states on its website. ‘To address these issues, the Climate Judiciary Project of the Environmental Law Institute is collaborating with leading national judicial education institutions to meet judges’ need for basic familiarity with climate science methods and concepts.’

Sher Edling, LLP, the firm helping represent Hawaii at the Supreme Court works on dozens of climate-nuisance cases, representing cities and states across the country. The Daily Caller reported that the firm accepted $2.5 million in 2022 from The New Venture fund, an fund of the liberal dark-money firm, Arabella Advisors. 

In addition to sharing funding sources, Sher Edling, LLP and ELI have shared personnel. In February, Senator Ted Cruz, R-Texas revealed that former Biden administration official Ann Carlson consulted for Sher Edling on climate litigation while serving on ELI’s board.

‘We have been raising awareness about the dangers of public nuisance litigation for well over a year,’ O.H. Skinner, executive director of the Alliance for Consumers, told Fox News Digital. 

‘These cases represent a coordinated, dark-money-fueled threat to everyday consumers. The cases, commentators, law firms, and state court judges are all funded, supported, and trained by left-wing dark money.’ 

‘And these cases find support in the halls of congress from hypocrites like Sheldon Whitehouse, who bemoan dark money while filing legal briefs supporting liberal dark-money-backed public nuisance cases. Whitehouse’s true goal, and that of most nuisance suits, is to remove products and services from the market that do not align with the progressive agenda,’ he said. 

‘Left-wing dark money groups such as the Climate Judiciary Project are indoctrinating judges all across the country with their far-left climate change propaganda,’ Carrie Severino, president of the Judicial Crisis Network told Fox News Digital. 

‘The possibility that the Supreme Court would hear this case is a nightmare for these groups, because this Court cares about constitutional tenets like federalism rather than left-wing policy goals,’ she said. 

The Supreme Court could decide to take up the case, Sunoco v. Honolulu, as early as this summer.

Fox News Digital reached out to Senator Whitehouse, the Environmental Law Institute and Sher Edling for comment. 

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I’m not trying to be overly dramatic, because most of you know how I feel about the stock market’s long-term direction. We’re going higher. Fight that at your own risk. However, short-term, we have a major storm brewing. To fully understand the possible effects of this storm, you need to understand history. Over 80% of the S&P 500’s gains over the past 75 years have been earned during the 26th to 6th of ALL calendar months. It’s due to (1) legalized front running as Wall Street firms and hedge funds begin buying stocks ahead of big money inflows at the start of each month, and (2) those inflows. Obviously, the rest of the calendar month accounts for less than 20% of the S&P 500 gains.

Just as there’s a very strong bullish period during the month, there’s also one very nasty period during calendar months and it typically coincides with the week of monthly options expiration. The 19th through the 25th has produced annualized returns of -7.58% over 4232 trading days since 1950, or the equivalent of 16 years. How would you feel if I told you that the S&P 500 would drop 7.58% over the next 16 years? It would be pretty depressing, right? Well, that’s exactly what’s happened during this part of the calendar month, which is why we need to be aware.

I believe the stronger the market has been leading up to monthly options-expiration Friday, the stronger the potential of a decline and 75 years of stock market data backs me up on this. Is it a guarantee that we’ll see selling? Of course not. But one key to trading success is understanding when stock market risks are elevated. I can say, without a doubt, that short-term stock market risks are elevated right now.

Technology (XLK) has been leading the stock market higher over the past week and month. Here are the numbers:

1-Week Performance:

1-Month Performance:

After looking at these two summaries, is there any doubt what’s been leading this market higher? Unfortunately, that’s the problem. The large-cap technology names that have had such a strong run to the upside, especially in the semiconductors area ($DJUSSC), have also seen extremely heavy call buying. That’s led to many key stocks like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), etc. having current prices WAAAY above their respective max pain levels. The SPY and QQQ alone show more than $13 billion of net in-the-money call premium – the highest levels of net call premium that I’ve ever seen. Beware a sudden drop to the downside over the next week to 10 days.

I’ll discuss much, much more about this dramatic increase in call premium at our next Max Pain webinar, which will be held this Tuesday, June 18th, at 4:30pm ET. If you’re not currently a member at EarningsBeats.com, you can join for FREE by starting a 30-day trial. CLICK HERE to get your membership started and to join me on Tuesday!

The XLK, in addition to max pain issues, also is now dealing with a negative divergence on its hourly chart. The last time we saw a similar negative divergence, the XLK fell roughly 5% in less than a week. Check this out:

The bottom panel shows the rate of change (ROC) for the past 65 hours, or 10 days (2 weeks). Note that the only other time in 2024 that we’ve seen the XLK’s 2-week ROC hit or approach 10% was back in mid-January. A negative divergence was also present then and the XLK promptly fell roughly 5% in a week. From the current level, a drop of 5% would be $11 and would take the XLK back to the 216 level. I’m not saying we’re going to drop 5%, I’m only pointing out that the short-term risks are elevated currently.

If you’d like to listen to my current thoughts on the market and last week’s stock market recap, check out my latest Weekly Market Recap video at YouTube, “Max Pain Sending MAJOR Warning For Stocks!”

Happy trading!

Tom

The week that went by was in stark contrast to the week before that as the markets remained in an extremely narrow range before closing with modest gains. The markets demonstrated a peculiar feature over the past five sessions; on four out of five trading days, the Nifty 50 came off by over 100 points from its peak every day. However, the stark contrast was in the trading range that the markets displayed. In the previous week when the markets reacted to the elections, it swayed a total of 2057 points. This week, the trading range contracted to just 283.75 points. Volatility also continued to dramatically come down; last week it had come off by 31.38%, while this week, India VIX declined by another 24.05% to 12.82. Amid narrow-ranged moves, the headline index finally ended with a net weekly gain of 175.45 points (+0.75%).

The coming week is a truncated week with Monday being a trading holiday on account of Bakri Eid. The markets have closed at their fresh lifetime highs; however, they remain below the rising channel that was violated. The Index is continuing to mark incremental highs but it is also continuing to resist the lower edge of the channel. Going by the derivatives data, Nifty has strong resistance in the 23550-23600 zone; unless these levels are taken out convincingly, a sustained upmove cannot be expected. Over the coming shortened week, the Nifty may also rise a bit but at the same time, it stays vulnerable to profit-taking from higher levels.

The markets would adjust to global trade setup when it opens on Tuesday and now the Nifty is in uncharted territory. The levels of 23550 and 23645 may play out as probable resistance levels. The supports come in lower at 23200 and 23050 levels.

The weekly RSI is 68.25; it continues to show bearish divergence against the price. While the prices are making new highs, the RSI is not. This has led to the emergence of a bearish divergence. The weekly MACD has now shown a positive crossover; it is now bullish and trades above the signal line.

The pattern analysis of the daily chart shows that while the Nifty is forming incremental lifetime highs, it is still not able to achieve a clean breakout. The Nifty had violated a rising channel on the daily charts in April; now it is seen resisting the lower edge of the same channel in the form of an extended trendline. Given the rising nature of this trendline, it is opening up some room every day for the Nifty to form a new high but at the same time, it offers resistance as well to the Index. Unless there is a strong convincing move above the 23550—23600 zone, a clean breakout may continue to elude the markets.

Overall, the markets are showing a lot of tentativeness at higher levels; however, there is no dispute about the fact that the underlying current remains strong. We may see some highly sector-specific shows playing out from the PSU/PSE space along with Energy stocks. At the same time, some defensive plays from FMCG and Pharma cannot be ruled out as well. It is recommended to keep leveraged exposures under control. The up moves from now on must be used to protect profits on the stocks that have run up too hard and effectively rotate the fresh buying in the stocks that are enjoying strong relative strength. A cautious outlook is advised over the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that the Nifty Realty index has rolled inside the leading quadrant. Besides this, the Metal, Midcap 100, Consumption, and Auto Indices are also inside the leading quadrant. These groups are likely to relatively outperform the broader Nifty 500 Index.

The Nifty PSE Index is seen sharply improving on its relative momentum while being placed inside the weakening quadrant. The Energy, PSU Bank, Infrastructure, and Commodities indices are inside the weakening quadrant as well.

The Nifty Services Sector index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. The Nifty IT Index is also inside the lagging quadrant; however, it is seen improving its relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Media and FMCG indices are inside the improving quadrant and are seen maintaining their momentum. Banknifty is also inside the improving quadrant but it is seen slowly giving up on its relative momentum against the broader market.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

The broader market is fairly mixed with one clear leader: technology. I am also seeing mixed performance within the technology sector and within specific groups. Semiconductors are strong overall, but groups like cybersecurity are more mixed. This makes it a stock pickers market. In such conditions, I am looking for individual stocks that are emerging as leaders. Today’s article will focus on CyberArk Software (CYBR), which was covered this week in ChartTrader.

The chart below shows CYBR breaking out of a falling wedge with a strong advance over the last two weeks. It is an emerging leader because it recently broke the 50-day SMA and exceeded its mid May high (breakout). In addition, the overall pattern and retracement look like a correction within a long-term uptrend. CYBR is well above the 200-day SMA and the decline back to 225 retraced around half of the prior advance, which was a whopping 80%. Thus, we have a two steps forward and one step backward sequence for the long-term uptrend.

The indicator window shows the price-relative (CYBR/RSP ratio) turning up in June and breaking its mid May high. This means CYBR is starting to outperform the broader market again (relative strength). Thus, we have a long-term uptrend and break above the May high on the price chart. We also have a price-relative breakout to signal relative strength. This is a bullish combination.  A strong breakout should hold so I would set a re-evaluation level on a close below 235 (green line).

Looking for more emerging leaders? This past week we covered two more cybersecurity stocks, a semiconductor name with a classic correction and a few healthcare stocks. ChartTrader reports and videos also cover broad market trends with a focus on SPY, QQQ and MAGS. Click here to learn more and gain immediate access.

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There is no denying the strength of the bullish primary trend for stocks off the April low. The Nasdaq 100 index continues to make new all-time highs, closing just under $480 on Friday after gaining about 3.5% over the last week. But will this incredible uptrend continue into July and August?

We’ve been tracking plenty of warning signs, from the dramatic increase in bearish momentum signals to an initial signal from the Hindenburg Omen in late May. But, despite those bearish implications, the strength of mega-cap growth stocks, like Nvidia (NVDA) and Apple (AAPL), has been enough to drive the major equity benchmarks higher. The question for investors is whether the strength in these leading growth stocks will be enough to keep this bullish market trend in place!

Today, we’ll lay out four potential outcomes for the Nasdaq 100. As I share each of these four future paths, I’ll describe the market conditions that would likely be involved, and I’ll also share my estimated probability for each scenario.

By the way, we conducted a similar exercise for the Nasdaq 100 back in February, and you won’t believe which scenario actually played out!

And remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!Think about how each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving the QQQ pushing above $500 over the next six-to-eight weeks.

Option 1: The Very Bullish Scenario

The most optimistic scenario would mean the Nasdaq 100 continues its incredible pace, pushing well above the $500 level by the end of July. Not only would leading growth names continue to thrive in this environment, but other stocks that have not been participating – such as Energy and Industrials – would likely rotate higher as a broader advance propels the QQQ to further new all-time highs.

Dave’s Vote: 10%

Option 2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

What if the market remains elevated, but the pace slows way down? This second scenario would mean that the Magnificent 7 stocks would stall a bit, and perhaps other stocks would rotate higher. The major benchmarks would remain in a primary uptrend, but we’d be talking about leadership rotation as the market remains in a “wait and see” mode about potential Fed rate cuts later in 2024.

Dave’s vote: 25%

Option 3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Both of the bearish scenarios would involve a pullback in leading growth names, and if leading names like NVDA begin to retrace their gains from early 2024, we could face a mildly bearish scenario. Breadth conditions remain weak and, after the leaders start to fail, there’s nowhere to go but lower. In scenario #3, I would expect the May low around $443 to hold for the QQQ, and this begins to feel like a well-deserved pullback while the primary uptrend still remains in place.

Dave’s vote: 60%

Option 4: The Super Bearish Scenario

You always need to have a super bearish outcome, which helps to put the other three into proper perspective. In scenario 4, the leadership stocks give back their recent gains, and perhaps some strong economic data brings the whole “Fed Goldilocks scenario” into question. The QQQ drops below its May low, and by late July we’re debating whether the April low will hold. While the major equity benchmarks still have positive returns in 2024, this corrective move forces even the most optimistic of bulls to reconsider their thesis.

Dave’s vote: 5%

What probabilities would you assign to each of these four scenarios? Check out the video below, and then drop a comment with which scenario you select and why!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.