(This story has been updated to correct a factual error.)
PHOENIX− You’re the Arizona Diamondbacks, the defending National League champions, and you’ve got a huge decision looming.
You’re facing the San Diego Padres the final weekend of the season at Chase Field in Phoenix. If you win the three-game series, you’ll likely open the postseason at home against these Padres. Lose the series, and you’ll likely open on in San Diego.
So, how do you play it?
Do you go all-in and use top starters in Zac Gallen or Merrill Kelly, or do you make sure they’re fresh for the playoffs?
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Do you exercise caution or are you aggressive with the bullpen?
Just how important is it to win the series and secure home-field advantage in the best-of-three wild-card round?
The New York Yankees will be facing a similar dilemma. How hard will they go this final week against Baltimore and Pittsburgh to assure they have home-field advantage throughout the American League playoffs, if not the World Series?
If you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers with a depleted starting rotation, how important is it to keep the foot on the gas to make sure you have a better record than the Philadelphia Phillies in case they meet in the NL championship series?
Well, if these teams step inside their analytics room, they may discover they’re wasting their time and energy if they really believe home-field advantage is worth fighting for, except for providing a few extra bucks in their owners’ pockets.
“If there’s anybody to tell you that home-field advantage is overrated, three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer of the Texas Rangers tells USA TODAY Sports, “I’m your guy.
“Really, it’s almost the opposite.’
Trust him.
Scherzer was on the 2019 Washington Nationals team that lost every home game during the World Series, and still won it all by winning four games against the Astros in Houston.
Scherzer was also on the Rangers team that lost all three games at home during the ALCS last year but won all four games in Houston to reach the World Series, with the Rangers winning their first championship by going a record 11-0 on the road.
“Baseball is a team sport, but there’s a very individual component to it,’ Scherzer says. “You’re not relying on necessary communication on like other sports where crowd noise affects that. The field conditions are the same, too. Because of that, baseball is played the same way, whether you’re home or road.
“So, this home-field advantage hasn’t made a bit of a difference in my experience.’
Go ahead, take a good hard look at the numbers yourselves.
The home team in last year’s postseason went 15-26 (.366), the worst of any postseason in 53 years, dating back to 1970 when there were only four teams in a postseason (4-7, .364).
In the last five full years, excluding the 2020 postseason when games were played at neutral sites, more series were won on the road (27) than at home (22).
Even when the pressure is the greatest, and the stakes the highest, home teams were just 6-10 in winner-take-all games since 2018.
“I can’t explain it,’ says Rangers manager Bruce Bochy, who has won four World Series titles in his career, never clinching at home. “We didn’t just lose, we got pummeled at home last year against the Astros. We go to their place and play lights out. I looked back and tried to make sense of it, but I couldn’t.
“Last year wasn’t an advantage for any team.’
Times are different now, negating home-field advantage in the postseason. It’s not like the days of the 1987 and 1991 World Series when the Minnesota Twins won every home game at the old Metrodome and lost every road game, leaving opposing managers like Whitey Herzog of the St. Louis Cardinals convinced the Twins were cheating by adjusting their air conditioning system.
It’s not like the days in Detroit when the infield grass was so thick that it slowed the ball down. Or the days of the cold, dark visiting clubhouse in Arlington, Texas, where you struggled trying to stay warm inside, and then felt like it was 140 degrees when you stepped outside. Or the chilly nights at old Candlestick Park in San Francisco where the Giants had portable space heaters for their dugout and the visiting team had to fend for itself.
Life on the road is so comfortable nowadays that it can feel like a spa day.
“The one thing about being on the road is that it’s just you,’ Bochy says. “There’s less distractions. You’re all in the same hotel together. You’re hunkering down as a group. So maybe that does play a role.
“When you’re at home, you’re going your own way, and nobody sees each other until you get to the park.’
The Diamondbacks, who have won more games on the road (44-35) than at home (42-33) this season, insist that winning home-field advantage is important to them. They even have a glossy postseason road resume, starting every series on the road last year and going 7-3 in Milwaukee, Los Angeles, Philadelphia and Texas.
Still, they’re not changing their minds.
“You want home-field advantage,’ Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker says. “It’s not about scaring the visiting team or anything like that, it just makes you feel more comfortable. When we walked into Philly last year, we weren’t nervous or intimidated at all, but when we came home and had 48,000 people cheering for us, it gives you a little energy.
“But really, just get in, and it really doesn’t matter where you play.
“I think history has proven that.’
Again and again.
“I know it’s nice being at home,’ Scherzer says, “but speaking from personal experience, the road can be a beautiful place.’
Next level technology
Are you tired of watching position players digging into their back pockets for cheat sheets? Sick of pitchers studying notecards underneath their caps before every pitch? Scream at the TV every time there’s a delay because the PitchCom device stops working?
Well, three former college coaches say they have a solution. They’ve developed the “GoRout’ technology system that enables coaches to have instant communication with their players, transmitting everything from pitches to defensive positioning to hit-and-run plays.
This advanced technology, with players wearing a device similar to a smartwatch that visualizes everything, is being used by more than 2,000 football, baseball and softball teams at the collegiate and high school levels.
“We obviously pay a lot of attention to what Major League Baseball is doing,’ GoRout founder Mike Rolih says, “and we think we provide a very unique and varying perspective on what the coach/player communication can be from a visual perspective versus just having an audio in the pitcher’s cap or the catcher’s ear.
“Since it’s a smartwatch type of component, with our technology system, we’re not limited.’
Rolih, a former collegiate football coach at Eastern Illinois, has brought in several former coaches into his company like Drew Robinson, a former assistant football coach at Rutgers, Syracuse and Western Michigan, along with Adam Boiurassa, a former scout with the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. Together, they believe they can provide the next technological advancement that makes PitchCom look like a rotary telephone.
“We know that when a catcher calls a fastball away, it’s just not a fastball away,’’ Rolih says, “there’s this whole other level of context that goes with it. There are adjustments to the middle infield, adjustments to the outfield, shading, and different things. So our technology allows coaches to not only send in what that pitch could be, but also send in all of the other scouting reports that’s pertinent to that pitch. We have the capability of having spray charts and live heat maps, displaying content live in real time.’’
It may be a long, long time before MLB ever permits realtime devices into the dugouts, still scarred by the Houston Astros scandal, but you get the idea.
“We’re looking at communication differently than everybody else, understanding that it’s more than just your pitcher and catcher,’ Robinson said. “I’m a Yankee fan. I watch them every night and you constantly see them pull the cards out of their hats or their back pockets telling them where to shift and things. This system gives coaches and player the ability to send that communication digitally. You don’t need the paper cards and archaic communications.’
Will the system lead to more sign stealing and cheating in baseball?
“It should mitigate that,’ said Bourassa, “because instead of signs coming from the dugout and the third-base coach’s box, you simply have to touch a button to communicate with the baserunner and the hitter. It removes the ability to steal those signs.’
While it could certainly lead to innovative teams trying to illegally tap into a cellular system, the GoRout executives say it would work similar to the NFL, which created a private cellular network in every NFL stadium.
The company, which has primarily worked with Division I baseball and softball teams, high school programs and travel teams, says it hopes to reach out to MLB officials one day. For now, it will keep receiving feedback, making adjustments, and updating the system to ensure it’s foolproof.
Who knows, perhaps one day there’ll even come a time where you can watch an entire baseball game without cheat sheets or pitchers frantically signaling that their earpieces don’t work.
Crazy, right?
Around the bases
≻ MLB and the Oakland A’s are beefing up stadium security for their final game at Oakland Coliseum on Thursday with players and staff instructed not to loiter on the field after the game in case of fan violence.
Manager Mark Kotsay, who had planned to thank the crowd after the game, was advised to instead retreat to the clubhouse, according to one of his peers.
≻ If the San Francisco Giants dismiss Farhan Zaidi, president of baseball operations, at the season’s conclusion, look for them to reach out to former Miami Marlins GM Kim Ng and Minnesota Twins GM Thad Levine as potential replacements. The Giants have missed the postseason in all but two years since winning the 2014 World Series.
≻ Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, who was widely praised for his decision not to pitch around Shohei Ohtani in his record-setting 50 homer-50 steal day last week, is expected to inform the Marlins that he is officially leaving after the season where he will become the hottest free agent manager in baseball.
≻ Andrew Friedman, Dodgers president of baseball operations, put to rest the idea they would risk having Shohei Ohtani pitch in relief in the postseason
“We aren’t even thinking about that right now,” Friedman told the Orange County Register. “This is like January for him. He’s just barely a year out from Tommy John. To me, he’s not really an option.”
≻ While Giants minority owner Buster Posey met privately with third baseman Matt Chapman the day before signing his six-year, $151 million contract, it had little to do with contract negotiations but everything to do about answering Chapman’s questions about the future of the franchise.
Posey assured him that the Giants plan to spend, and spend big, turning the organization around as quickly as possible.
The only contractual issues that were unresolved before Posey’s involvement was agreeing to give Chapman a complete no-trade clause and compromising on a $1 million signing bonus. Chapman was originally seeking a $2 million signing bonus since he had a $2 million buyout in his original three-year, $80 million deal with a buyout.
≻ Billy Eppler, the former New York Mets GM who was suspended from MLB for fabricating injuries to place players on the IL to open roster spots, will officially be reinstated after the World Series.
Eppler, who was GM of the Angels when they landed Shohei Ohtani and has strong ties in Japan, could be a shrewd hire for a team making a run at Roki Sasaki, Japan’s most talented pitcher who has teams drooling.
“He is a healthy Jacob deGrom,’ one executive said, “only better. He might have the best stuff I’ve ever seen.’’
It remains unknown whether Sasaki will leave Japan this winter or wait one more year.
≻ Umm, that NL Most Valuable Player award debate sure ended quickly. Shohei Ohtani will run away and perhaps win his third unanimous MVP award.
≻ While Pete Alonso of the Mets will be the highest-paid first baseman on the free agent market, club executives insist that Diamondbacks first baseman Christian Walker will draw much more interest at perhaps half the price. The Milwaukee Brewers are one of several teams that have interest if first baseman Rhys Hoskins opts out of his contract.
≻ The Chicago White Sox quietly hired well-respected scout David Keller from the Mets to run their international scouting department. He will be one of GM Chris Getz’s top confidants.
≻ The Boston Red Sox were willing to provide free agent starter Jordan Montgomery a four-year contract in the winter, but negotiations never materialized as Montgomery kept waiting on the Texas Rangers, where he badly wanted to return. He was left signing with the Arizona Diamondbacks where he’s expected to stay instead of opting out of a $22.5 million contract in 2025.
≻ Minnesota Twins outfielder Manny Margot quietly broke an MLB record. He is now 0-for-30 as a pinch hitter this season.
≻ How great is the Cleveland Guardians bullpen with sensational closer Emanuel Clase?
They have lost only two games when leading after six innings and will be a serious threat in the American League playoffs.
≻ The Dodgers won’t pitch starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto on less than five days’ rest in the postseason, manager Dave Roberts says, meaning they will need four starters, even in the best-of-five series.
≻ The Baltimore Orioles’ decision to give fading 36-year-old closer Craig Kimbrel a one-year, $13 million contract badly backfired when they dumped him before the start of the postseason. The Orioles had no choice but to release him after watching him implode since the All-Star break, yielding a 11.50 ERA, giving up 23 hits, 17 walks and five homers in his final 18 innings.
Kimbrel had a fabulous career but falls short of the Hall of Fame threshold, particularly considering his postseason woes.
≻ Just how great of a season is Chris Sale having for Atlanta en route to his unanimous NL Cy Young award? He not only leads MLB in wins, ERA and strikeouts, but hasn’t permitted more than two earned runs in any his last 18 starts, dating to June 7.
It’s the longest single season stretch by a full-time starter since earned runs became an official statistic in 1913.
≻ This could be the second time in the last 25 years that only two AL teams finish with 90 or more victories. The AL has had three or more teams win at least 90 games every year since 1998 with the exception of 2015 when the Kansas City Royals won 95 games (and the World Series) and the Toronto Blue Jays won 93 games.
≻ It seems almost mathematically impossible, but Red Sox outfielder Tyler O’Neill somehow leads the team with 31 home runs but has only 61 RBI. He will join Felix Mantilla in 1964 (30 homers, 64 RBI) as the only Red Sox players to hit 30 or more homers and drive in fewer than 80 runs.
O’Neill has hit 20 solo homers this year.
≻ It’s hard to believe the AL Central will be the only division in baseball with three postseason teams, the first time it sent three teams to the postseason since the division was formed in 1994.
The division has produced only two World Series champions, however, the Chicago White Sox in 2005 and the Royals in 2015.
≻ Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers’ season ends in one of the worst slumps of his career, hitting just .188 with a .564 OPS in his last 30 games, failing to homer since Aug. 25.
≻ Kudos to the Detroit Tigers players who refused to give up on each other when the front office gave up on them, dumping four players at the trade deadline, including Jack Flaherty, who has become the Dodgers’ ace.
Those trade deadline moves could haunt them all winter.
Meanwhile, the future is certainly bright for the Tigers. They owe a debt of gratitude to former GM Al Avila and his staff for drafting and signing much of the young talent.
≻ If the Seattle Mariners are sitting home this winter, they can blame two of the strangest baserunning blunders you’ll ever seen on their downfall.
Mariners outfielder Victor Robles actually tried to steal home on a 3-0 count with the bases loaded on a pitcher in the first inning and was easily thrown out against the New York Yankees.
And Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez tried to top the boneheaded move one night later by getting picked off third base with one out in the 10th inning. He was scrambling out of the way when Randy Arozarena’s bat slipped out of his hand toward him, but forgot the play was still live and was easily thrown out.
“That’s one I’ve never seen,’’ Yankees manager Aaron Boone said, “and I don’t know if I’ll ever see it again.”
The two blunders will live forever in Mariners’ lore, failing to make the postseason for the 22nd time in 23 years.
≻ Chicago Cubs manager Craig Counsell didn’t hold back letting everyone know that it wasn’t a fluke that the Brewers left the Cubs in the dust yet once again.
“I think the message sent is that there’s a big gap,” Counsell told reporters. “They’re ahead of us by a lot. And it’s a talented team on and off the field. It’s a talented team, but there’s a big gap. And we’ve got room to make up. There’s no question about it. …
“We’ve got to get better, man. …We’ve got a ways to go.”
The terrifying part for the Cubs?
The Brewers, who were devastated by injuries this season, should be even better in 2025.
≻ San Diego Padres All-Star third baseman Manny Machado made his World Series prediction: Padres-Houston Astros.
“We’re going to see them again,” Machado said after last week’s series.
If they do meet, it’s becoming likely that it will be without future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander on the postseason roster. He has yielded an 8.89 ERA in six starts since returning from the IL and conceded Friday that he may have returned too early from his neck injury.
≻ Rangers starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi can vest a $20 million player option in his contract when he passed the 300-inning threshold the past two seasons, but considering his season, he’ll hit the free agent market.
≻ The Chicago White Sox played just good enough on their road trip that they now are assured of breaking the all-time record of 120 losses in front of their own hometown fans this week. If the White Sox were a college football team, they’d be everyone’s homecoming game.
≻ The Padres are so much more of a complete team than they were a year ago with their abundance of stars.
When they were down in games last year, their team seemed to quit. When they are down this year, they fight back.
They are 10-1 in extra-inning games, compared to 2-12 of a year ago.
They are 31-22 in games in they’ve lost a lead, compared to 8-33 a year ago.
They are 22-18 in one-run games compared to 9-23 a year ago.
“It’s just a hungry group that loves to play baseball,’’ Padres manager Mike Shildt says, “and loves to compete.”
≻ The Philadelphia Phillies will have an interesting dilemma in the postseason. Do they start Cristopher Sanchez in Game 2 to ensure that the Phillies are home, or Game 3 on the road? In 16 home starts, Sanchez is yielding a 2.05 ERA with a 0.959 WHIP and 95 strikeouts in 105⅓ innings. In 14 starts on the road, he has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.661 WHIP, with 54 strikeouts in 71 ⅔ innings.
≻ Remember the ridicule Astros GM Dana Brown took for trading away three prospects for struggling Blue Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi.
It turned out to be a stroke of genius, with the Astros winning all of Kikuchi’s nine starts. He is yielding a 3.00 ERA and a .189 opponent’s batting average, with 68 strikeouts in 54 innings.
≻ Mets starter Sean Manaea is heading for a nice free agent payday. He has permitted three runs or fewer in 17 of his last 19 starts, pitching at least 6 ⅔ innings in 10 of his last 11 starts.
≻ The Padres are starting to become concerned with closer Robert Suarez, who has surrendered a go-ahead or game-tying homers in three of his last six appearances and at least one run in eight of of his last 18 games, with a 5.40 ERA since Aug. 8.
≻ Fabulous seeing Atlanta pitching coach Rick Kranitz return after being out since early July to deal with the health of a family member.
≻ Congratulations to Dan Adair, Art Howe’s former teammate at the University of Wyoming, who became a commercial airline pilot while Howe went on to play 11 years and manage 14 years in the major leagues. Adair’s grandson, Billy Cook, hit his first big-league homer on Wednesday for the Pittsburgh Pirates and his second Saturday.
This post appeared first on USA TODAY
