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Will the Stock Market’s Santa Rally Bring Holiday Cheer to Investors?

A smart investor listens to the stock market and this week’s stock market action was a perfect example of why this is important. 

It was a roller-coaster week in the stock markets leading many investors to quickly sell holdings when there was a big selloff and scramble to go long again on Friday when the broader stock market indexes turned higher. This is why it’s a good idea to always look at a longer time frame chart to get a sense of the long-term trend before making hasty decisions. 

If you pull up a weekly chart of any of the three major indexes you’ll see that the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) are trending higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is also doing the same but it’s just hanging in there by a whisker.

The Ups and Downs

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday sent investors into selloff mode which spilled over into Thursday. But Friday’s slightly lighter-than-expected November PCE may have reversed investor sentiment. The broader stock market indexes moved higher spreading some holiday cheer to an otherwise gloomy week. 

What made the market move higher? It doesn’t make sense to look for a reason for the reversal in sentiment. Remember, it’s best to listen to the market and follow along. That said, a few interesting data points are worth noting.

The Federal Reserve indicated their focus was on a cooling of the labor market in their last few meetings. However, Wednesday’s comments from Chairman Powell suggested that the labor market is doing fine now but the Fed’s focus has switched to inflation. That may have made investors nervous and triggered the massive selling we witnessed on Wednesday. Friday’s light November PCE may have been a sigh of relief that brought back the optimistic sentiment. 

Despite the optimistic sentiment, one important news we can’t lose sight of is the possibility of a US government shutdown. A shutdown doesn’t necessarily impact the stock market but there may be inconveniences such as a reduction in government services that may send ripples through the economy.

The Year-End Party

As 2024 winds down, there will likely be very light trading days but there are some important events that unfold at the end of the year. There’s the January Effect which is when small-cap stocks start rallying. Small-cap stocks got a boost post US election but since late November they’ve been sliding lower. The daily chart of iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) shows the small-cap trend is still bearish. 

FIGURE 1. DAILY CHART OF IWM. Small cap stocks took a big hit in December. Look for the full stochastic oscillator to cross above the 20 level with some follow-through to confirm their seasonal rally. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The full stochastic oscillator is deep in oversold territory and a cross above the 20 level would be encouraging for small-cap stocks. But there needs to be follow-through for the small caps to have a bullish rally.  

In addition to the January Effect, there’s the eagerly awaited Santa Claus rally, which is supposed to start next week. Friday’s price action may have reignited the possibility of having Santa show up this year. But I wouldn’t hold my breath just yet. 

If you look at the daily chart of the S&P 500 below, you’ll see that the three market breadth indicators displayed in the lower panels had started declining in late November, which should have signaled that the market was ripe for a selloff.

FIGURE 2. S&P 500 HOLDS ON TO SUPPORT. Friday’s price action may look slightly bullish but it needs more follow-through to confirm a reversal. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

What is concerning is that Friday’s price action didn’t change the market breadth narrative. So even though Friday’s rise was sizeable, with a bullish engulfing pattern that closed at the 50-day simple moving average, I wouldn’t rush to buy the dip just yet and certainly not on triple-witching Friday. For all you know, there could have been some short-covering going on. I’ll need to see more follow-through of the upside move before adding more positions to my portfolio. At least the S&P 500 stayed above the support of its mid-November lows.

The daily chart of the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($SPXEW) vs. the S&P 500 gives you an idea of how dominant the heavily weighted stocks influence the index.

FIGURE 3: S&P 500 VS S&P 500 EQUAL-WEIGHTED INDEX. The less-heavy weighted stocks in the S&P 500 are lagging the S&P 500. The equal-weighted index is trading below its 100-day moving average and has a long way to go before re-establishing its uptrend. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

$SPXEW is trading below its 100-day SMA. Note that Friday’s high came close to the 100-day SMA. A close above the 100-day SMA would be the first sign of a trend reversal in the equal-weighted index. But one day’s action doesn’t make a trend. A series of higher highs and higher lows needs to be established before a trend has indeed reversed. It would be more confirming if the non-Mag Seven stocks showed signs of catching up with the big S&P 500 index.

Volatility Pulls Back 

One encouraging point to end the week is the Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) closed below 20 (see chart below). Investors were getting so complacent towards the end of November but if you had noticed the VIX creeping higher, you’d have seen the selloff coming. 

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF THE CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX ($VIX). The VIX was at very low levels from November but it slowly started moving higher signaling that investors were getting fearful. This led to Wednesday’s spike. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The pattern in the chart of the VIX shows that a similar pattern occurred from June to July, right before the August spike. Could a similar scenario unfold this time?

The Mark Twain quote, “History doesn’t repeat itself but it often rhymes,” explains it so well. So as you navigate the stock market, listen to the rhythm and follow its lead. 

The bottom line: Set up your Dashboard panels on the StockCharts platform and get a bird’s eye view of the stock market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 down 1.99% for the week, at 5930.85, Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.25% for the week at 42,840.26; Nasdaq Composite down 1.78% for the week at 19,572.60$VIX up 32.95% for the week, closing at 18.36.Best performing sector for the week: TechnologyWorst performing sector for the week: EnergyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR)

On the Radar Next Week

November Durable Goods OrdersNovember New Home SalesOctober S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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Politics

House passes funding bill with just hours until government shutdown

The House has passed a bill to avert a partial government shutdown on Friday, hours before the midnight federal funding deadline. 

The bill, which needed approval from two-thirds of the chamber, passed overwhelmingly in a 366 to 34 vote. 

All Democrats voted for the bill save for Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, who voted ‘present.’

Lawmakers were scrambling for a path forward after an initial bill was tanked by President-elect Trump and his allies on Wednesday, and a later bill approved by Trump failed on the House floor Thursday.

But Trump has stayed noticeably silent on this latest measure – which many House Republicans saw as a tacit sign of approval.

Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was optimistic after days of uncertainty, telling reporters there would be a House-wide vote Friday when leaving a closed-door House GOP meeting where leaders presented their plan.

‘We will not have a government shutdown, and we will meet our obligations for our farmers who need aid, for the disaster victims all over the country and for making sure that military and essential services and everyone who relies upon the federal government for a paycheck is paid over the holidays,’ Johnson said. 

Meanwhile, the national debt has climbed past $36 trillion, and the deficit is over $1.8 trillion.

The legislation, if passed in the Senate, would extend current government funding levels through mid-March, a measure known as a continuing resolution (CR), paired with just over $100 billion in disaster relief aid for victims of storms Helene and Milton, as well as assistance for the agriculture industry.

Johnson bypassed regular House procedures to get the legislation straight to a chamber-wide vote, a maneuver known as ‘suspension of the rules.’

In exchange for the fast track, however, the threshold for passage was raised from a simple majority to two-thirds of the House chamber, meaning Democratic support is critical.

Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., told reporters he believed Johnson struck an agreement with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. A longtime Johnson critic, Massie said he would not vote for the bill.

‘Trump wanted a debt limit increase, and now we’re bringing the exact same bill to the floor without the debt limit increase,’ Massie said.

Another Republican lawmaker argued Johnson would not move forward without Trump’s blessing.

‘We wouldn’t do it if they weren’t,’ Rep. Dan Meuser, R-Pa., said when asked if Trump and Elon Musk were supportive of the deal.

Trump and Musk led the conservative rebellion against the initial plan to avert a partial shutdown, a bipartisan deal that came from negotiations between the top two Democrats and Republicans in both Congressional chambers.

That bill, 1,547 pages, would have extended current government funding levels until March 14. However, GOP hardliners were angered by what they saw as unrelated measures attached to the bill, like a pay raise for congressional lawmakers, health care policy provisions and legislation aimed at revitalizing RFK Stadium in Washington, D.C.

It was scrapped as Trump and Musk threatened to force out of office any lawmaker who did not support pairing a CR with action on the debt limit.

The debt limit is suspended until January 2025 through a prior bipartisan deal, but Trump had pushed for Republicans to act on it now to avoid a messy, protracted fight early in his term.

The second iteration of the funding deal was much slimmer, coming in at 116 pages. It excluded the stadium bill and the congressional pay raise, but still included measures to fund the rebuilding of Baltimore’s Francis Scott Key Bridge and disaster aid funding. It also suspended the debt limit through January 2027.

A House vote on the second plan went down in flames, however, after 38 Republicans opposed to raising or suspending the debt limit voted with all but two Democrats to defeat the bill.

Johnson huddled with those holdouts Friday morning, along with Trump’s nominee to lead the Office of Management and Budget, Russell Vought, and Vice President-elect JD Vance. 

The bill that passed the House on Friday does not act on the debt limit, but Johnson pledged in that closed-door meeting to raise the debt limit early next year as part of Republicans’ plans for a massive policy and spending overhaul.

During their closed-door meeting Friday, House GOP leaders unveiled their CR plan as well as a plan to raise the debt limit by $1.5 trillion, followed by $2.5 trillion in net spending cuts, multiple people told Fox News Digital.

Democrats who left their own closed-door meeting shortly before the vote largely said they would support the bill – which they did.

President Biden has said he would sign it into law if it reaches his desk after a Senate vote.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Politics

Senate Dems rail against ‘shadow speaker’ billionaire Elon Musk: ‘Not elected to anything’

Senate Democrats labeled billionaire Elon Musk ‘co-president’ and ‘shadow speaker’ among other titles as they reacted to the original stopgap spending deal’s implosion on Wednesday after he and ultimately President-elect Trump came out against it. 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., said Musk ‘seems to be the guy in charge of the country now,’ reacting to his apparent ability to influence the bill’s prompt failure despite it having been agreed upon by bipartisan leaders in Congress. 

If a measure to provide funding for the government is not passed by Congress and signed by President Biden by midnight on Saturday morning, a partial government shutdown will go into effect. 

As of Thursday, the U.S. national debt was at $36,167,604,149,955.61 and continues to climb rapidly. 

After a 1,547-page short-term spending bill was debuted this week. Musk quickly took to X to trash it, pointing out various seemingly irrelevant provisions as well as its cost and length. 

He was soon joined by other critics, and Trump and Vice President-elect JD Vance issued their own statement opposing the bill. 

This led to significant criticism from Democrats unhappy with Musk’s apparent ability to influence Trump and the Republicans in Congress. 

‘He’s the one who seems to be calling the shots,’ Warren told reporters. 

‘Elon Musk is the one evidently in charge of the Republican Party and has blown that deal up. So I don’t know how the Republicans are planning to recover from that,’ she said. 

Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pa., suggested that Musk is ‘already the shadow speaker of the House,’ in a slight against House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.

‘I think he’s unelected, and he’s created a whole lot of damage,’ said Sen. Raphael Warnock, D-Ga.

He claimed Republicans in Congress were ‘busy listening to Co-President Musk and co-President Trump.’ 

‘I’m listening to the people of Georgia, especially the farmers who are struggling to get disaster relief. And, we need to make sure that we get that over the finish line,’ said Warnock.

Sen. Mark Kelly, D-Ariz., reiterated that Musk is not an elected official. ‘He doesn’t have any official government job,’ he said. 

‘We had a deal with Republicans in the House and now, because of him, the president-elect is on the verge of people losing their jobs and not getting paid over the holidays,’ Kelly said of a potential partial shutdown if a bill is not passed by a deadline of midnight on Saturday morning. 

Despite their Democratic colleagues’ claims, Republicans pushed back on the idea that Trump was being influenced by Musk. Sen. James Lankford, R-Okla., noted that there are ‘lots of people around President Trump,’ adding that he doesn’t think Musk has control over what the president-elect does. 

Musk was tapped by Trump, along with former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, to lead what is called the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a proposed advisory board tasked with eliminating government waste.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Stocks

2024’s Big Bang: A Deeper Dive Into the Hindenburg Omen

This week saw the fabled Hindenburg Omen generate its first major sell signal in three years, suggesting the endless bull market of 2024 may soon indeed be ending.  Why is this indicator so widely followed, and what does this confirmed signal tell us about market conditions going into Q1?  First, let’s break down the conditions that led to this rare but powerful bearish indicator.

Major Tops Tend to Have Consistent Patterns

Strategist Jim Miekka created the Hindenburg Omen in 2010 after analyzing key market tops through market history.  What consistent patterns and signals tended to occur leading into these market peaks?  He boiled it all down to three key factors which were consistently present:

The broad equity markets are in an uptrendAt least 2.5% of NYSE listings are making a new 52-week high and at least 2.5% are making new 52-week lows on the same dayThe McClellan Oscillator breaks below the zero level

One final step involves observing these three conditions occur at least two times within a one month period.  Looking at the chart, we can see that this completed Hindenburg Omen signal has only occurred three times since 2019: in February 2020 going into the COVID peak, in December 2021 just before the 2022 bear market, and December 2024.

What strikes me about this initial look at the indicator is that from a technical perspective, 2024 and 2021 have been remarkably similar.  Both years featured long-term uptrends with minimal drawdowns and low volatility.  So does that mean we are heading into another 2022 and a 9-month bear market for stocks?  Not necessarily.

Trend-Following Techniques Can Help Improve Accuracy

Switching to a weekly chart, we can bring in much more history to consider.  I’ve added red vertical lines to indicate any time we registered a confirmed Hindenburg Omen signal with at least two observations within one month.

Reviewing some of the recent market tops, we can see that this indicator did remarkably well in identifying topping conditions in 2021, 2020, and 2018.  Going back even further, you’ll notice signals around the 2007 and 2000 peaks as well.  But what about all the other signals that were not followed by a major decline?

People have quipped that the Hindenburg Omen have “signalled ten out of the last five corrections,” referencing the “false alarm” signals that did not actually play out.  I would argue that the key with indicators like this is to combine them with trend-following approaches, similar to how I approach bearish momentum divergences.

When I see a bearish divergence between price and RSI, or observe any other leading indicators like the Hindenburg Omen flash a sell signal, that doesn’t tell me to blindly take action!  What it does tell me is to be on high alert and look for signs of distribution that could serve to confirm a bearish rotation.  By patiently waiting for confirmation, we can improve our success rate and take action only when the charts compel us to do so!

S&P 5850 Remains the Level to Watch

So where does that leave us in December 2024?  While Wednesday’s post-Fed drop certainly represented a significant short-term distribution pattern, the longer-term trends for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still quite constructive.

The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average this week for the first time since September.  And while Wednesday and Thursday both saw the SPX close below the 50-day, Friday’s rally on improved inflation data took the major equity index right back above this key short-term barometer.

SPX 5850 has been my “line in the sand” since the November pullback, and as long as price remains above this threshold, I’m inclined to consider this market innocent until proven guilty.  And given the normal end-of-the-year window dressing common with money managers, I would not be surprised if the Magnificent 7 stocks and other large cap growth names remain strong enough to keep the benchmarks in decent shape into year-end.

But indicators like the Hindenburg Omen certainly have caused me to dust off the bull market top checklist, looking for signs of distribution that would imply further weakness.  One of my mentors and long-time StockCharts contributor Greg Morris once quipped, “All new highs are bullish… except the last one.”  I’m wondering if that early December high around 6100 may be the last one for a while!

One last thing…

I recently sat down virtually with author and technical analyst Chris Vermeulen to discuss the benefits of following asset flows, the dangers of holding dividend paying stocks during bear markets, how to navigate a potential breakdown in crude oil and energy stocks, and how investing and surfing are more alike than you might think!

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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Business

OpenAI is done with Shipmas and staring down daunting challenges for 2025

OpenAI’s “12 Days of Shipmas,” which wrapped up on Friday, brought a sense of levity to end the year. The marketing blitz served as a way for the high-profile and controversial AI startup to show it can release an extensive roster of new features and tools while also having some fun.

But when the calendar turns, the company faces some serious challenges. Most notably, there’s co-founder Elon Musk, who now runs rival startup xAI, and is in the midst of a heated legal battle with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman that could have a big impact on the company’s future.

The threat Musk poses to OpenAI is even more significant considering the hefty amount of influence the world’s richest person is poised to assume as part of the incoming Trump administration.

In recent months, Musk has sued Microsoft-backed OpenAI and asked a court to stop the company from converting to a for-profit corporation from a nonprofit. In posts on X, he described that effort as a “total scam” and claimed that “OpenAI is evil.” At The New York Times’ DealBook Summit earlier this month, Altman said he views xAI as a “fierce competitor.”

The pressure on OpenAI is tied in large part to its $157 billion valuation, achieved in the two years since the company launched its viral chatbot, ChatGPT, and kicked off the boom in generative AI. OpenAI closed its latest $6.6 billion round in October, gearing up to aggressively compete with xAI as well as Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Anthropic in a market that’s predicted to top $1 trillion in revenue within a decade.

Alongside the drama swirling around OpenAI and Altman, the Shipmas shtick served as a way for the company to shift the focus to its technology and generate buzz for its products.

The most significant release over the 12 days was the public launch of Sora, OpenAI’s much-hyped video-generation tool, on Dec. 9.

Using Sora, which OpenAI first announced in February, is relatively simple: A user types out a desired scene, and the engine will return a high-definition video clip. Sora can also create clips inspired by still images and extend existing videos or fill in missing frames. While other AI video tools are available, Sora has been by far the most anticipated because of the power of OpenAI’s large language models.

On Wednesday, OpenAI gave users a new way to talk to its viral chatbot: 1-800-CHATGPT. Those in the U.S. can dial the number (1-800-242-8478) for 15 minutes free per month, OpenAI said, and WhatsApp users globally can message the chatbot at the same number.

Other announcements included the full release of OpenAI’s new o1 AI model focused on reasoning, a demo of video and screen-sharing options in ChatGPT’s Advanced Voice Mode, the ability to organize work into “Projects” within ChatGPT, a wider rollout of ChatGPT Search and new developer tools. The company also used the marketing push to talk about its integration with Apple for the iPhone, iPad and macOS.

OpenAI closed out its 12-day run of releases on Friday by announcing its newest frontier model, o3, as well as o3 mini. On a livestream, Altman said the company would not publicly launch the models Friday but would make them immediately available for public safety testing.

The company launched o1 in September, and in skipping straight to o3, Altman said he’s continuing “the grand tradition of OpenAI being really, truly bad at names.”

The campaign was celebrated in some corners for the company’s ability to make a strong year-end push, and criticized by others as significantly more hype than substance. Either way, OpenAI is well aware that competition is heating up — and quickly.

One of its chief rivals, Amazon-backed Anthropic, was founded by early OpenAI researchers and has been attracting top talent. In May, OpenAI safety leader Jan Leike left OpenAI for Anthropic, and in August, OpenAI co-founder John Schulman announced he was leaving to join the rival startup. They were part of a wave of departures that culminated in September, when three top leaders, most notably technology chief Mira Murati, announced their exits on the same day.

A recent report by Anthropic investor Menlo Ventures found that OpenAI ceded market share this year in enterprise AI, declining from 50% to 34%, while Anthropic doubled its market share from 12% to 24%. The results came from a survey of 600 enterprise IT decision-makers from companies with 50 or more employees, according to the report.

One key area where the two companies appear poised to go head-to-head is in defense, as AI companies walk back earlier bans on military use of their products and enter into partnerships with big players in the industry and the U.S. Department of Defense.

The day before OpenAI’s Shipmas event began, the company announced a partnership with Anduril, allowing the defense tech provider to deploy advanced AI systems for “national security missions.” Last month, Anthropic and defense software vendor Palantir announced a partnership with Amazon Web Services to “provide U.S. intelligence and defense agencies access” to Anthropic’s AI systems.

The primary battle, though, is still for users. Altman said publicly earlier this month that OpenAI now has 300 million weekly active users. Over the next year, the company is reportedly targeting 1 billion.

That level of growth will likely require a pricey marketing push and fast-tracked feature launches, as the company advances in its two-year timeline for transitioning from a nonprofit into a fully for-profit company. Earlier this month, OpenAI announced it had hired its first chief marketing officer, nabbing Kate Rouch from crypto company Coinbase.

Then there’s the increasingly complicated relationship with Microsoft, OpenAI’s lead investor and key cloud provider. While both companies continue to tout the value of their close partnership, there are increasing signs of tension.

Following Altman’s abrupt but short-lived ouster from OpenAI late last year, reports surfaced that Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was not briefed beforehand. After Altman was quickly reinstated, OpenAI gave Microsoft a non-voting board seat. Microsoft relinquished the position in July.

In March, Nadella brought on Mustafa Suleyman, who had co-founded AI research company DeepMind and sold it to Google in 2014. Suleyman, later co-founded and led startup Inflection AI, and was effectively acquihired by Microsoft.

In its annual report published in July, Microsoft named OpenAI as a competitor, adding the company to a roster that for years has included megacap peers Amazon, Apple, Google and Meta. And in October, OpenAI debuted a search feature within ChatGPT that positions it to better compete with search engines like Google and Microsoft’s Bing.

But the thorniest issue heading into the new year likely involves Musk, who has been a fixture at President-elect Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida since the election.

Trump has said in the past that he would repeal President Joe Biden’s AI executive order, issued in October 2023, which introduced new safety assessments, equity and civil rights guidance and research on AI’s impact on the labor market.

Musk is set to to lead the Trump administration’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which is expected to function as an advisory office, alongside onetime Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy. His new role could give Musk, who also runs Tesla and SpaceX and owns social media company X, influence over federal agencies’ budgets, staffing and regulations in ways that favor his companies.

“Starting to feel like The @DOGE has real potential,” Musk posted on X last month.

OpenAI did not provide a comment for the story, and Musk didn’t respond to a request for comment.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Starbucks union announces strike to last through Christmas Eve in 3 major cities

Love Starbucks holiday drinks? This week, you may not get them.

Starbucks Workers United announced baristas will strike starting Friday in three key markets — Seattle, Los Angeles and Chicago. 

The union said the move is in response to the coffee chain’s “failure to bring viable economic proposals to the bargaining table” and “to resolve hundreds of outstanding unfair labor practice charges.”

The union, which started organizing in 2021, represents 525 union stores and over 10,500 union workers, according to its website. Starbucks has nearly 10,000 company-owned U.S. stores, The Associated Press reports.

“Since February, Starbucks has repeatedly pledged publicly that they intended to reach contracts by the end of the year — but they’ve yet to present workers with a serious economic proposal,” the group wrote on X. “This week, less than two weeks before their end-of-year deadline, Starbucks proposed no immediate wage increase for union baristas, and a guarantee of only 1.5% wage increases in future years.”

The group said baristas starting Friday morning will embark on five days of escalating strikes that could spread to other cities through Christmas Eve “unless Starbucks honors our commitment to work towards a foundational framework.”

Starbucks, which is headquartered in Seattle, Washington, told NBC News there has been “no significant impact” to its store operations. 

“We are aware of disruption at a small handful of stores, but the overwhelming majority of our US stores remain open and serving customers as normal,” the company said.

In a Tuesday press release the union said it and Starbucks had announced a path forward earlier this year and have advanced dozens of tentative agreements at the table, but “Starbucks has yet to bring a comprehensive economic package to the bargaining table.”

“Starbucks can’t get back on track as a company until it finalizes a fair contract that invests in its workforce. Right now, I’m making $16.50 an hour. Meanwhile, Brian Niccol’s compensation package is worth $57,000 an hour,” Silvia Baldwin, a Philadelphia barista and bargaining delegate, said in a statement referring to Starbucks’ CEO.

“The company just announced I’m only getting a 2.5% raise next year, $0.40 an hour, which is hardly anything. It’s one Starbucks drink per week. Starbucks needs to invest in the baristas who make Starbucks run,” she added.

A Starbucks spokesperson said Workers United delegates “prematurely ended our bargaining session this week.”

Starbucks argued that it offers a “competitive average pay of over $18 per hour, and best-in-class benefits” such as health care, college tuition, paid family leave, and company stock grants.

“Workers United proposals call for an immediate increase in the minimum wage of hourly partners by 64%, and by 77% over the life of a three-year year contract. This is not sustainable,” the company said.

Starbucks said it is ready to continue negotiations.

It comes as the Teamsters union announced Thursday strikes at several Amazon delivery facilities, amid the peak holiday delivery rush.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Sports

Jim Harbaugh on fair-catch kick: ‘It’s my favorite rule in football’

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — Jim Harbaugh received an early Christmas present Thursday night during the Los Angeles Chargers’ 34-27 win over the Denver Broncos.

Harbaugh got an opportunity to utilize what he called his favorite rule in football: The fair-catch kick.

Harbaugh’s Chargers got a chance to take advantage of the rule when the Broncos were penalized for fair catch interference with under 10 seconds remaining in the first half. The 15-yard penalty gave Los Angeles the football on Denver’s 47-yard line. After the two teams exchanged timeouts, the Chargers trotted out Cameron Dicker for the 57-yard, fair-catch kick.

Dicker knocked the football through the uprights for the first successful fair-catch kick since 1976, and the longest converted fair-catch kick in NFL history.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

“It was awesome. It was fun to go out there,” Dicker said. “It was funny to be in that scenario, and just be like, ‘huh, there’s no line out there, this looks a little weird.’ But it was really cool to be out there and be able to execute.”

It was the first fair-catch kick attempt in the NFL since 2019.

“It’s my favorite rule in football, and just been trying to get one of those, like every game,” Harbaugh said with a smile postgame.

Harbaugh admitted he was keenly aware of the seldom-used NFL rule. He actually tried one when he was the head coach of the San Francisco 49ers in 2013. But kicker Phil Dawson missed the 71-yard kick against the St. Louis Rams.

“There was Cam Dicker. (He) stepped up and nailed it,” Harbaugh said. “I thought that was huge, good momentum.”

Momentum it was.

The kick cut the Chargers’ deficit to 21-13 at halftime. Los Angeles proceeded to rally in the second half by outscoring the Broncos 21-6, which was highlighted by three touchdown drives engineered by quarterback Justin Herbert and a defense that held Denver’s offense to 2-for-8 on third downs.

“I was expecting to go out there and throw (a) Hail Mary. That’s why we have coaches and people up in the box, you know, making that call,” Herbert said. “For Cam (Dicker) to go out there and nail that kick, like, that was a huge momentum boost for us.”

The momentum-boosting, fair-catch kick could be the catalyst that gets the Chargers back into the playoffs. The win vaulted Los Angeles to the sixth seed in the AFC, one spot above the Broncos. Plus, the Chargers have now swept the season series against their AFC West rival. According to Next Gen Stats, the Chargers have a 97% chance to reach the postseason and could even clinch a playoff berth by the end of Sunday.

An early Christmas present in the form of a successful fair-catch kick that could help the Chargers clinch a playoff berth in Harbaugh’s first year in Los Angeles.

“Christmas is my favorite holiday,” Harbaugh said. “A lot of great memories.”

Harbaugh’s got another Christmas memory to add, for sure.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Sports

What’s the future of college football’s bowl system? It’s complicated.

Over a casual dinner earlier this fall where all the topics roiling college sports were batted around, one of the game’s venerable power brokers turned the tables on the person who’s supposed to be asking the questions. 

“What would you do with the rest of the college football postseason?” this person asked, sparking a conversation that opened my eyes to an idea I hadn’t previously considered. 

For an industry that has gone out of its way over many decades to accommodate the bowl industry, even cutting them in on the spoils of the College Football Playoff, there’s been a disturbance in the force.  

Though everyone knew a decade ago that creating the CFP would change the nature of and interest in college football’s larger postseason, the bowls were still considered untouchable. Despite a financial model that ensured most schools lost money on bowls, schools and conferences dutifully participated in them, believing in their necessity as a reward for players, a vehicle for coaches to squeeze in extra practices and a marketing tool for the university. 

“But it’s getting to be a tough business,” my dinner companion said with a request for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject, noting the increasing number of players opting out of bowls or exiting the program via the transfer portal, leading to decreased enthusiasm from fans. “It’s not sustainable. Is it really a reward when people don’t want to play? The obvious answer might be just don’t do them. I know there’s a lot of tradition there, and I’m a traditional (person). I just don’t see how it’s going to work.”

My jaw was on the floor. Never had I heard someone with so much skin in the game broach the idea of such a radical upheaval in college football’s postseason.

Could you really do away with bowl games completely? What about an NIT-style tournament in December for a group of teams that didn’t make the CFP? What if you took the current bowl games and converted them into exhibitions or scrimmages that took place after spring practice?

POSTSEASON LINEUP: The complete college football bowl schedule

ON THE MOVE: Ranking the top quarterbacks in the transfer portal

These ideas and a bunch more should all be up for discussion, the person said. With the playoff expanded to 12 and perhaps beyond, further diminishing the prestige of non-CFP bowls, status quo simply isn’t the answer. 

The conversation over reimagining bowl season took on newfound urgency last weekend when Marshall, the Sun Belt champion, withdrew from its Dec. 28 Independence Bowl matchup against Army citing fewer than 50 players available after head coach Charles Huff left for Southern Mississippi and the portal exodus that occurred as a result. 

“At this moment, our football program’s participation numbers create a major concern for the health and safety of our current student athletes to compete in a safe, viable manner,” school officials said in a release. 

Though 5-7 Louisiana Tech agreed to take Marshall’s spot, administrators at Army and the American Athletic Conference were incensed. And there’s little doubt that when conference commissioners meet in January before the national championship game, there’s going to be an appetite to discuss how to reform the system.

“Let’s look at the whole thing and just figure out, is there another way? Is there a better way?” said one of them, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because formal talks had not taken place. 

The timing is good to think about changes. In 2026, when all the current agreements expire, the College Football Playoff is likely to expand to 14 teams. That will undoubtedly have a downstream impact on the bowls, of which there are currently 35 outside of those tied to the playoff.

The reality check here is bowl season, for all its problems, is inexorably linked to ESPN’s December programming schedule. In fact, ESPN owns and operates 17 of those games itself and has broadcast agreements with nearly all of the others. Good luck convincing college football’s most important business partner that bowl games are no longer worthwhile when they’re filling television windows over the holidays that generate more viewers than the NBA, college basketball or NHL regular season games that would likely take their place. 

“I think the changes will need to be below the surface,” said Nick Carparelli, the executive director of Bowl Season, an organization that coordinates various business operations among the bowl operators. “There are solutions to be had. It’s just a matter of people’s willingness to think differently and do what’s in the best interest of the sport versus allowing the status quo, which just simply is not working right now.” 

What are those solutions? In Carparelli’s mind, these are potentially items like changing the timing of the transfer portal, tying players’ revenue sharing compensation to postseason participation, bowl payouts fluctuating based on player availability and making it punitive for a school to pull out of a bowl after to agreeing to play. It could also mean creating more flexibility to foster matchups that make more sense rather than the current selection system which is based on a specific conference contractually filling a spot in a specific game. 

“People love bowl games and the bowl system,” Carparelli said. “The problem is not with bowl games, it’s with the infrastructure surrounding college football right now that’s negatively impacting the sport at every level.

‘We need to stop making excuses and stop pointing out reasons why we can’t make changes that are good for the sport and take some bold steps to fix it. We’re beyond the point where we can expect to find a square solution that goes into a square hole. We have to make some tough decisions that are in the best interest of the sport, even if they aren’t popular.”

Here’s where it gets sticky, though. Carparelli’s primary job is advocating for the bowls. For decades, that was relatively easy work because the sport’s stakeholders believed the system was worthwhile and made all kinds of concessions to prop it up and expand it. They even made accommodations for six bowl games to be part of the CFP structure when it would probably have been more efficient to cut them out. But nobody wanted to be the bad guy who let the Rose Bowl die on the vine. 

Now, the thinking across the industry is a bit different. Athletics directors are facing huge budget pressures at the moment from the House vs. NCAA settlement and athlete revenue sharing provisions that will cost them tens of millions of dollars. Fans are being asked to give, give and give some more to support name, image and likeness efforts. 

Is it worth losing money on a bowl game — which, again, most schools do because they are required to buy huge blocks of tickets when they sign the contract to participate — when you’re not part of the playoff, your fans don’t really care and half your starters have opted out? 

“We just keep adding bowl games, but we’ve diluted the value of the entire postseason by just adding events,” one person close to the process told USA TODAY Sports on the condition of anonymity, citing the sensitivity of these partnerships. “And the bowls don’t lose money because they’ve passed all the risk on to the schools. We need to generate more value (to keep them viable).”

The push and pull between the bowl system lobbying for NCAA-led changes that lock players into participation and schools/conferences looking for reforms that might decrease the number of bowl games or make the financial arrangements more favorable will be fascinating to watch as 2025 unfolds. 

And it’s clear administrators are at least open to a world that looks very different for postseason games outside of the playoff. No longer do the bowls have a vice grip on the hearts and minds of those making the decisions. One way or the other, change is coming. 

“Any change requires a little bit of give and take,” Carparelli said. “But there’s a system to be had where nobody’s losing opportunities.” 

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Biden missing in action as Turkey inches closer to full-blown war against US-allied Kurds in Syria

JERUSALEM — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could be on the brink of engulfing Syria in a new war with his slated invasion of the country’s north in an effort to decimate the U.S.-allied Syrian Kurds who helped President-elect Trump defeat the Islamic State in 2019.

The White House-brokered cease-fire between Turkey and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) has been largely ignored by pro-Turkey forces and Erdoğan, according to Fox News information from northern Syria. The SDF, which lost 12,000 fighters in its campaign to aid the U.S. in the victory over the Islamic State, is faced with an existential crisis.

An SDF source in northern Syria told Fox News Digital that the Syrian Opposition and the Syrian National Army, both of whom are aligned with Erdoğan’s government, ‘are building up around Kobani from the east and west directions. Assaults on the Tishreen Dam are still taking place intermittently. SDF confront them and push them back continuously. Additionally, the Kobani frontlines are subjected constantly to Turkish armed drones and artillery targeting. No support from any nation. Just the U.S. helping with mediation between us and the Turks aims to have a permanent cease-fire.’

According to the SDF source, ‘The main attackers are called SNA, which constitute the Al Hamza division and Sultan Suliman Shah division, who are loyal to the Turkish MHP party leader Dewlet Bahçelî.’ Erdoğan is aligned with the extremist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP).

Simone Ledeen, a former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, told Fox News Digital, ‘The U.S. must reinforce support for the SDF — using all available tools to ensure they remain capable on the ground — while addressing the reality that Turkey, our NATO ally, is enabling a rapidly expanding jihadist threat.’ 

When approached by Fox News Digital, a U.S. State Department spokesperson said, ‘Syria is in a fragile state right now. We don’t want to see any party take an action to pursue their own unilateral interests over the broader interests of the Syrian people. We continue to talk to the Government of Türkiye and others in the region about a path forward that de-escalates tensions, not one that escalates them. This is a time to increase stability, not to further devolve into fighting.’

The spokesperson added, ‘Our focus is on promoting a Syrian-led political process in the spirit of U.N. Security Council resolution 2254, while ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS. Given that we know ISIS exploits instability, it’s incumbent on all countries with influence on the ground — including Türkiye — to promote stability, dialogue, and restraint. The United States supports Syria’s territorial integrity.’

The Biden administration’s alleged failure to rope in Erdoğan aggression could mean the escape of 10,000 Islamic State terrorists held in SDS-run prisons. The SDF has had to redeploy its forces to counter Turkey’s campaign to depopulate northern Syria of SDS fighters. The reemergence of the Islamic State in Syria could adversely affect American security, argue counter-terrorism experts.

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., declared repeatedly in an address to Erdoğan in Congress, ‘Leave the Kurds alone.’ He added, ‘The Kurds are America’s friends… The people most responsible for helping us, most responsible for destroying ISIS, were the Kurds.’

Kennedy warned Erdoğan, ‘If you invade Syria and touch a hair on the head of the Kurds, I’m going to ask this United States Congress to do something,’ noting, ‘Our sanctions are not going to help the economy of Turkey.’

Turkey’s economy is wobbly, and potent U.S. economic sanctions could destabilize Erdoğan’s government.

When asked about the reports of Turkish-aligned forces attacking Syrian Kurds, a spokesman for Turkey’s Foreign Ministry told Fox News Digital, ‘The mentioned reports are groundless. Türkiye never had a problem with the Syrian Kurds — to the contrary, embraced them and supported them to become part of a unified Syria. The clear distinction should be made between the Syrian Kurds and the ones associated with the terrorist organizations.’

The spokesman added, ‘The continued dedication and sacrifices of Türkiye in the fight against Daesh (ISIS) should not be overlooked. At the end of the day, Türkiye remains as the most credible and capable actor in the region in the fight against Daesh.’ 

Turkey’s government uses Daesh, the transliteration of the Arabic acronym Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), to designate the Sunni Jihadi terrorist movement. 

When confronted with the SDF statement that the U.S.-led mediation efforts collapsed because Turkey failed to accept key points, ‘including the transfer of remaining Manbij Military Council fighters and civilians wishing to move to safer areas within north and eastern Syria, as well as the resolution of the issue concerning the transfer of Suleiman Shah’s remains to their former location,’ the Turkish Foreign Ministry spokesman said, ‘It is not Türkiye escalating the situation on the ground, it is the determination of Syrian people to act against the terrorist organization.’

He added, ‘The Syrian people, empowered by the confidence gained from overthrowing the Ba’ath regime, are striving to expel the PKK/YPG/’SDF’ terrorist organization, which has long occupied their territories and subjected them to violence and oppression. They have successfully removed the organization from Manbij and Deir ez-Zor, and are on the verge of doing so in Raqqa. At the end of the day, this is merely the reflection of the will of the Syrian people.’

PKK is an abbreviation for the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, an organization classified by the U.S. and the EU as a terrorist entity. The U.S. has a long-standing military alliance with the Syrian Kurdish military organization, The People’s Defense Units (YPG), in Syria. The YPG is part of a broader organization known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and played a key role in dismantling the Islamic State in Syria.

In a growing act of bi-partisan congressional support for the Syrian Kurds, lawmakers are sending messages to the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration. 

On Wednesday, Sens. Chris Van Hollen, D-Md., and Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., threatened to impose sanctions on Erdoğan. The senators wrote in a joint statement, ‘While Turkey has some legitimate security concerns that can be addressed, these developments are undermining regional security, and the United States cannot sit idly by.’

‘In the wake of the Assad regime’s fall, Turkish-backed forces have ramped up attacks against our Syrian Kurdish partners, once again threatening the vital mission of preventing the resurgence of ISIS,’ they said.

Several requests for comment from Fox News Digital to President-elect Trump’s spokespeople and his incoming National Security Council adviser, Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Fla., were not immediately returned.

Shukriya Bradost, an expert on the Kurds, who was born and raised in the Kurdistan region of Iran, told Fox News Digital, ‘Turkey’s most pragmatic option is to engage in dialogue with the Kurdish administration in Syria, facilitated by the United States. A cooperative relationship could serve both Turkish and Kurdish interests, stabilizing the region while addressing Turkey’s security concerns and the experience that Turkey already has with the Kurdistan Region of Government in Iraq (KRG).’ 

She added, ‘Turkey has already shown that it can cooperate with a Kurdish administration in Syria. In the past, oil from northern Syria flowed through KRG into Turkey, demonstrating the potential for economic and political collaboration. This precedent proves that mutual interests can override historical hostilities.’

Bradost recommended that Washington ‘broker a historic agreement that addresses Turkey’s security concerns without dismantling Kurdish autonomy in Syria. Much like the Abraham Accords brought unprecedented diplomatic breakthroughs in the Middle East, a U.S.-facilitated deal between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds could offer a transformative path forward.’

On Friday, the State Department’s top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, met with representatives of the U.S.-designated terrorist organization Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in Damascus. HTS and its Islamist allies ousted the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar Assad less than two weeks ago. 

Leaf told reporters after the meeting that there is a cease-fire around Manbij and there are concerns about ‘the effects of fighting near the Tishreen Dam and damage to that dam, especially if it were significant structural damage.’ She added the U.S. is working with Turkish authorities and the SDF for a cease-fire around Kobani. 

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White House pressed on Biden refusing to speak publicly ahead of shutdown

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre volleyed away reporters’ questions on Friday about President Biden’s lack of public appearances amid the ongoing government funding fight as a partial shutdown looms. 

Jean-Pierre refused to answer why the president has not spoken to the American public about his position, and she instead blamed Republicans, President-elect Trump, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and their ‘billionaire friends’ like Elon Musk for the chaos on Capitol Hill. 

‘Why hasn’t President Biden said anything in the public about this? Don’t the American people deserve to know why millions of federal workers could enter this holiday period without a paycheck?’ Jean-Pierre was asked during her daily press briefing. 

‘All Americans need to know that Republicans are getting in the way here and they are the ones who have created this mess. That’s the reality. That’s the fact,’ she responded. ‘This is not the first time we’ve been here. And the president has had this approach before. He understands how Congress works. He’s been around for some time. He understands what strategy works here to get this done.’

Jean-Pierre said Friday that Biden has held phone calls with Democratic leaders in Congress — Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y. — but would not say if the president has spoken to the House speaker with regard to the ongoing discussions. 

‘He has been getting regular updates from his team. His team has been in touch with congressional members from both sides of the aisle,’ she said. 

A streamlined version of a bill backed by Trump to avert a partial government shutdown failed to pass the House of Representatives on Thursday night.

The bill, which needed two-thirds of the House chamber to pass, failed by a vote of 174 to 235. The national debt has soared to over $36 trillion, and the national deficit is over $1.8 trillion.

Jean-Pierre said Republicans went back on their word and ‘blew up this deal.’

‘Republicans need to stop playing politics with a government shutdown. And they are doing the bidding. They’re doing the bidding of their billionaire friends. That’s what we’re seeing at the expense of hard-working Americans,’ she said. 

‘There is a bipartisan agreement that Republicans tanked because of what they were directed to do by Elon Musk and President-elect Trump. That’s what happened. That is the reality that we’re in now.’

Musk, an outspoken critic of government waste, has weighed in on the spending bill debate and led a conservative revolt against the first 1,547-page bill due to its bloated spending provisions, calling for lawmakers who supported the bill to lose their seats.

He supported the newer, slimmer version, which was ultimately rejected by House members. 

Reporters tried several different ways to try and get Jean-Pierre to comment on the president’s role in the matter, but she continued to sidestep.

‘The president is the President of the United States, and he is leading,’ she told a reporter, to which he responded: ‘To be clear, the strategy is he is leading by staying in the background?’

‘The strategy is that Congress, Republicans in particular, need to do their jobs and get out of their own way and focus on the American people, not their billionaire friends. That is what needs to happen. And that’s what the president wants to see,’ she replied.

Jean-Pierre also warned that a shutdown could disrupt the presidential transition process for the incoming administration.

‘If there is a shutdown — and I don’t want to get too much into hypotheticals — but this is the reality, transition activities will be restricted with limited exceptions, obviously, such as to prevent imminent threats to the safety of human life or the protection of property,’ she said.

Meanwhile, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., said Friday that Republicans have a ‘good plan’ to avoid a partial government shutdown. 

Rep. Stephanie Bice, R-Okla., added: ‘I think you come to an agreement, then you get together and sit down and figure out, you know, if we can get across the finish line. And that’s probably what we’re about to do now.’

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