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College football’s best games to watch in Week 10 start with Ohio State-Penn State

All games matter in college football, but some are more equal than others. As always, we’re here to help you pick out the most important ones for your viewing enjoyment, and there’s no shortage of options as the calendar turns to November.

The Week 10 slate features two meetings of ranked opponents. One of them is a highly-anticipated battle of top-five contenders that has been on the radar since the campaign began, while the other is a completely unforeseen top-20 tilt in the ACC. A slew of other important contests in all the power conferences are on the menu as well. Let’s dive right in, shall we?

No. 4 Ohio State at No. 3 Penn State

Time/TV: noon ET, Fox.

Why watch: The clear headliner of the week features a pair of Big Ten contenders facing major questions. The Nittany Lions hope to slay the Ohio State dragon for the first time since 2016, but it’s a game the Buckeyes must have if they want to stay in the conference title hunt. The Buckeyes survived their first contest since the one-point loss at Oregon, but the result against Nebraska was anything but convincing as Ohio State was trailing in the fourth quarter and QB Will Howard and the offense struggled to find a rhythm. He still has a dazzling array of weapons like WRs Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka, but DB Jaylen Reed and the Penn State secondary are formidable. The big concern for the Nittany Lions is the health of QB Drew Allar, who left last week’s game at Wisconsin with a knee injury before halftime. His status will be a true game-time decision, but the fact that backup Beau Pribula successfully negotiated the second half will give the team confidence if he is needed again. Playmakers like RB Kaytron Allen and TE Tyler Warren will also be helpful, but they’re sure to receive added attention from Buckeyes DBs Sonny Styles and Caleb Downs.

Why it could disappoint: As we said, both teams have concerns. OSU’s inability to run the ball consistently could be a sign of trouble. On the other side, it’s fair to wonder if the Nittany Lions can do enough on offense if Allar isn’t available. From a neutral perspective that might mean we’re in for a defensive battle, but that could also translate into high tension down the stretch.

No. 17 Pittsburgh at No. 20 SMU

Time/TV: 8 p.m. ET, ACCN.

Why watch: A huge day in the ACC wraps up with this ranked showdown between two of the four teams yet to lose in league play. The Panthers arrive with a couple extra days of rest following last Thursday night’s demolition of Syracuse, while the Mustangs are happy to be back home after narrowly escaping a comedy of errors at Duke. SMU QB Kevin Jennings, if he’s able to go following an injury scare, will have to be a bit more judicious with the ball after his offense committed six turnovers a week ago. A repeat performance will almost certainly not bode well against the Panthers, who turned five interceptions into three pick-sixes in their last outing. When the Mustangs do get the ball into the proper hands, they often belong to RB Brashard Smith, who should become familiar with Pitt LB Kyle Louis. Panthers QB Eli Holstein didn’t have to do much against the Orange with the defense providing much of the scoring, but he is still putting up 258.3 yards a game through the air. He can expect to find Mustangs DB Isaiah Nwokobia around the ball wherever it goes.

Why it could disappoint: It shouldn’t. Pitt’s penchant for fourth-quarter heroics and the Mustangs’ scrappiness should keep things interesting, though SMU will need a successful early drive or two if QB Preston Stone is pressed into service.

WEEKEND FORECAST: Expert picks for every Top 25 game in Week 10

BOWL PROJECTIONS: Oregon now No. 1, two SEC teams join playoff

No. 11 Texas A&M at South Carolina

Time/TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

Why watch: The Aggies stand alone atop the SEC and have the inside track to the championship game. But this trip east might be more treacherous than it might appear, as the Gamecocks came within a single play of taking down both LSU and Alabama. Texas A&M coach Mike Elko could have a QB conundrum on his hands, though it seems likely that dual-threat Marcel Reed will be the primary option moving forward after leading last week’s rally against LSU in relief of Conner Weigman. DB Nick Emmanwori and the South Carolina defense figure to be better prepared to make option reads, but they must also keep tabs on workhorse Aggies RB Le’Veon Moss. The Gamecocks can also change things up at QB, though LaNorris Sellers takes the bulk of the snaps with veteran Robby Ashford subbing in when needed. They’ll be up against a swarming Aggies’ defense, backed by DB Dalton Brooks.

Why it could disappoint: It’s possible the Aggies will find an extra gear as they embrace their position as league leaders. But the evidence suggests the talent gap is not all that wide. If the Gamecocks make any noise at all early, they’ll be in it until the end.

No. 2 Georgia vs. Florida

Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC.

Why watch: The Cocktail Party wasn’t looking particularly attractive a few weeks ago given Florida’s early struggles. But the Gators have rallied to win three of their last four, with the lone loss coming in overtime at Tennessee. Florida also just manhandled the same Kentucky squad that nearly toppled the Bulldogs earlier this season, although Georgia has looked much stronger of late. Freshman QB DJ Lagway has provided a spark for the Gators since taking over for the injured Graham Mertz. But he’ll have his hands full contending with LB Jalon Walker and the Georgia pass rush, last seen making life miserable for the Texas offense a couple of weeks ago. Bulldogs QB Carson Beck has his own issues with ball security at times, and Florida DL Tyreak Sapp will lead the effort to induce mistakes.

Why it could disappoint: Not unlike Ohio State, Georgia hasn’t been able to dominate on the ground as title teams of recent vintage could. If that should change, there’s probably nothing the Gators can do. But if the Florida run defense holds up, things might be tighter than Bulldogs’ fans would like.

No. 1 Oregon at Michigan

Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

Why watch: The defending Big Ten and national champion Wolverines can only play spoiler the rest of the way as they embark on a brutal November closing stretch. Up first are the top-ranked Ducks, who have been nothing but dominant since slipping past Ohio State to grab the mantle of league favorite. The Oregon backfield tandem of QB Dillon Gabriel and RB Jordan James can be all but unstoppable when their blockers get rolling, but LB Ernest Hausmann and the Michigan defensive front could at least slow them down for stretches. The offensive side remains a work in progress for the Wolverines, with Davis Warren and Alex Orji back to alternating at QB. The downfield passing threat is limited, however, which should enable DBs Tysheem Johnson and Kobe Savage to assist in run support.

Why it could disappoint: To be honest, it will be a pleasant surprise if it doesn’t. The Wolverines’ defense is sound but it can’t hold up all day. Once the Ducks gain a multi-score advantage, it will be time to turn out the lights.

Duke at No. 5 Miami (Fla.)

Time/TV: noon ET, ABC.

Why watch: The busy ACC slate kicks off with this clash in the Sunshine State as Duke coach Manny Diaz takes on his former school. It nearly became a showdown for a piece of the conference lead, but the Blue Devils came up a point short against SMU last week. The Hurricanes have endured their share of close finishes themselves but handled reeling Florida State with little drama in their most recent outing. Miami QB Cam Ward is front and center in the Heisman discussion with his passing numbers, over 343 yards a game with 24 TD throws. He does take risks, however, and Duke DB Chandler Rivers can make him pay if he tries to force the ball to his favorite WR Xavier Restrepo. Blue Devils QB Maalik Murphy isn’t quite as prolific in the aerial game but gets good ground support from RB Star Thomas. DL Simeon Barrow will lead the charge for the Miami defense that averages over three sacks a game.

Why it could disappoint: Duke’s inability to cash in on all those takeaways stemmed in part from issues in the kicking game. That isn’t all on Todd Pelino, as there are protection issues as well. But the Blue Devils quite simply can’t afford to leave points on the field again. Ward has done better with ball security of late, so Duke shouldn’t count on another spate of turnovers.

Texas Tech at No. 10 Iowa State

Time/TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

Why watch: We’ll wrap up the preview with a look at the Big 12, where the Cyclones have a clear path to the title game but get no weeks off during a long November. It begins with this home date with the Red Raiders, who were in the conference mix themselves a few weeks ago but now come to Ames on a two-game skid. Iowa State QB Rocco Becht was last seen leading the game-winning drive against Central Florida two weeks ago. He’ll look to take advantage of a leaky TTU defense that is allowing 6.6 yards per snap. The offense keeps the Red Raiders in most games, with QB Behren Morton at the controls. But his job figures to be harder against the Big 12’s stingiest pass defense, anchored by Cyclones DB Malik Verdon.

Why it could disappoint: Texas Tech will probably have to make it a track meet. We have seen that happen where Iowa State is involved, but the Cyclones seem better equipped to protect the lead. If Iowa State’s ground game is working, the Red Raiders might not have any answers.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Sports

Way-too-early MLB 2025 favorites, ranked: Does your team have a shot?

The 2024 World Series is in the books, which means it’s time to start consternating about 2025.

One of the favorites entering 2024 after signing Shohei Ohtani to a $700 million deal, the Los Angeles Dodgers earned their eighth title in franchise history with a five-game conquest over the New York Yankees, another top contender entering the season.

Follow every MLB game: Latest MLB scores, stats, schedules and standings.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Politics

Key House projection spells trouble for two Republican lawmakers

Two House Republican lawmakers are in political trouble with Election Day just four days away, according to a new analysis.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report issued a ratings update late Friday morning projecting races for Reps. Don Bacon, R-Neb., and Anthony D’Esposito, R-N.Y., to ‘lean Democrat.’

They were both previously classified as ‘toss-up’ races, meaning it was anyone’s game ahead of Nov. 5.

Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of the House of Representatives, which is currently held by the GOP with a slim four-vote margin.

Bacon and D’Esposito were widely considered two of the most vulnerable Republicans on the congressional map. They’re two of 16 House GOP lawmakers in seats that President Biden won in the 2020 race.

Both also won their seats by defeating Democrats – Bacon winning against a Democratic incumbent in 2016 and D’Esposito scoring an open seat previously held by a liberal in 2022.

D’Esposito’s district sits on the New York City suburb of Long Island. His victory was part of a wider backlash against the city’s progressive crime policies that was credited with delivering Republicans the House majority that year.

But with the presidential race at stake this time, Democrats have worked to tie D’Esposito to former President Donald Trump, who D’Esposito endorsed for re-election but is still a divisive figure among suburban swing voters.

House Democrats and aligned groups have also poured significant resources into Laura Gillen, who D’Esposito defeated in 2022.

Democrats also see opportunity in Bacon’s Omaha-anchored district, considered by Cook to be the least Republican of ruby-red Nebraska’s congressional seats.

Bacon, a retired Air Force brigadier general, has won every re-election battle since his 2016 race by less than 3%. 

But he’s facing what could be his toughest race yet in Nebraska state legislator Tony Vargas – to whom House Democrats have also given enormous time, money and resources.

Fox News Digital reached out to both GOP campaigns for comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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DAVID MARCUS: Trump vs. Harris: Here’s what I know about those who haven’t voted…yet

Over the next few days, minutes will seem like hours, hours like days, as Americans await the outcome of the presidential election that millions believe is all but existential for our nation.

But most of those people already voted, or cannot be swayed by Tuesday.

To fill the monotony, we will be treated, (or tricked) to countless graphs and charts, percentages of which demographics have already voted the most, which party is cannibalizing its votes, but who are these people left to sway?

I found two primary types of Americans, in my hundreds of interviews across America, who told me they were more likely to wait until the last minute to cast a ballot, if they would at all, and that brings us to type 1, possible non-voters. 

By far, the richest potential vein of voters for both campaigns to mine are people who aren’t sure they will even vote, but who would ultimately side with their candidate if they do.

Back in mid-September, I visited a bar in Morgantown, West Virginia in which basically nobody I spoke with was planning to vote, but most of them, when really pressed, leaned heavily in favor of Donald Trump. 

It was a kind of could-be-voter I met in many places across the Rust Belt, and they could determine the outcome of this election all by themselves.

What they were looking for, and what many may still be looking for this weekend, was to be convinced, presumably by Trump, that it really matters one way or the other, if they fill in their little ballot bubble.

If these Doubting Thomases can see proof that something Trump and Vance are planning to do will have a sincere and quick impact on their wellbeing, there is a chance to get them to the polls. What won’t sway them are attacks on Harris or far-left Democrats, because they are past the point of who is worse, they need to believe someone is meaningfully better.

The Harris version of the could be non-voter most often is a person, such as Gregg, in Philly, who I wrote about last week, and others like him in places like North Carolina, who don’t view Harris as sufficiently left wing.

These are typically people who abhor Trump, but view Harris as a tool of an only slightly more preferable political machine that ignores everyday people, and the idea that she is no more to the left than Joe Biden is a huge turn-off for them.

This explains the last week or so of calling Trump a fascist or rolling out Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-NY, on television to shore up the left flank. It also explains why Harris has not been able to effectively move to the center in this campaign.

These voters want red meat, expect the Harris campaign to give it to them.

The second group that holds out until the final day are traditionalists. These are people who never thought voting on Election Day was a problem, and so see no need to fix it by voting early. Some even see a real downside to it.

‘What if that Biden-Trump debate happened last week, after millions had voted,’ a woman in Pennsylvania mentioned to me recently,’and she has a point. 

We know that in the past day of voters have tended to swing Republican. Many traditionalists lean right, after all, but there are Democrats in this group, and crucially, undecided voters – in small numbers, yes, but out there.

We could also call these ‘closing argument voters’ and they very well could be affected by last-minute developments, a November surprise, if you will.

One such development is the abysmal Friday jobs report that showed just 12,000 thousand jobs created in October. That’s like one fifth of a football stadium’s capacity, and could make some of these last minute deciders say, ‘OK, that’s it.’

On the other hand, Harris certainly hopes that accusations of anti-Puerto Rican racism or lies about Trump saying he wants to use the Army against ordinary citizens, will have a similar effect, a final straw for those on the fence. 

Democrats dream of that long-awaited moment when enough voters say, ‘I’ve had it, Trump is flat out unacceptable,’ but Lucy has placed that football on the ground many times in the age of Donald Trump.

These are the voters who are left to sway. There may not be many of them but they may be able to decide the election. Both camps must now fight for them hour by hour, minute by minute, as the final clock runs down. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Discovery of ‘fraudulent’ voter applications prompts PA probe of Arizona company’s potential involvement

A Pennsylvania prosecutor is investigating roughly 30 voter registration applications and mail-in ballot applications that were identified as ‘fraudulent’ – including several that officials linked to an Arizona-based group that is working in the county.

The registration forms were spotted by the county’s board of elections officials, who then separated the forms and referred the matter for further investigation, Monroe County District Attorney Mike Mancuso said in a statement.

At least some of the forms were submitted by ‘Field and Media Corps,’ an apparent subsidiary of Fieldcorp, an Arizona-based organization working in Lancaster County, according to Mancuso.

‘The broader investigation continues with reference to Fieldcorp’s involvement,’ he said. 

Mancuso urged residents to remain calm, noting that his office ‘is in regular contact and working with investigators from the Attorney General’s Office as well as others.’

‘A further update will be made in the next day or so,’ he said.

Monroe County did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

The news comes after election officials in Lancaster County reported receiving two separate batches of apparently fraudulent or incomplete voter registration forms earlier this month. 

The 2,500 forms marked as suspicious either had false names, duplicative handwriting, or unverifiable or incorrect identifying information, officials said. The issues prompted county election officials to notify both the Pennsylvania Department of State and the state attorney general’s office to open a criminal investigation. 

The applications reportedly were not limited to a single party, and were collected in various spots across the county.

Pennsylvania Attorney General Michelle Henry sought to reassure voters in the Keystone State, noting in a press release late Thursday that her office has been working with respective counties on the apparent attempts to submit fraudulent ballots and investigate any organizations that may be responsible. 

‘While we will not be divulging sensitive information about these investigations, we want to clarify that the investigations regard voter registration forms, not ballots,’ Henry said. ‘These attempts have been thwarted by the safeguards in place in Pennsylvania. We are working every day with our partners to ensure a fair, free, and safe election.’

She added: ‘The investigations are ongoing, and offenders who perpetrated acts of fraud will be held accountable under the law.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Stocks

Market Rotation Fueled by Large Cap Growth (again)

Following the recent market fluctuations, with a sharp decline and a subsequent rally, it’s crucial to examine these movements’ underlying factors.

Utilizing relative rotation graphs (RRGs), we can gain insights into the current trends between growth and value stocks and their performance across different size segments.

Growth vs Value on Daily RRG

The daily RRG clearly prefers growth stocks over value stocks. The Dow Jones US Growth Index is advancing into the leading quadrant, indicating strong momentum, while the Dow Jones US Value Index is retreating into the lagging quadrant.

This rotation shows the recent shift towards growth stocks.

Large Cap Leads the Way

When we dissect the market by size rather than growth or value, we observe that large-cap stocks are positioned within the leading quadrant, albeit with a moderate trajectory.

Conversely, mid-and small-cap stocks are lagging, with mid-caps experiencing the most unfavorable rotation. This pattern indicates that large-cap stocks are currently outperforming their smaller counterparts.

A Closer Look at Growth and Value Across Sizes

The third RRG offers a detailed view of growth and value stocks by size.

Here, large-cap growth stocks stand out as they ascend within the leading quadrant. Mid-cap growth stocks show signs of recovery in the weakening quadrant, and small-cap growth stocks are gaining momentum in the lagging quadrant.

However, all value stocks, regardless of size, are declining, with large-cap value stocks also moving toward the lagging quadrant.

This separation underscores the near-term dominance of large-cap growth stocks.

The Influence of Large Cap Growth Stocks

Using the New York FANG index as a proxy for large-cap growth stocks further illustrates where the market’s strength lies.

A cluster of these stocks, including Tesla, Google, Amazon, and Netflix, are positioned in the leading quadrant, with Tesla exhibiting particularly high momentum. Microsoft is on the cusp of joining the leading quadrant, while Meta rebounds from the lagging quadrant.

Apple and NVIDIA, despite weaker tails, remain strong in relative strength, and AMD and Snowflake are also noteworthy, though they are currently lagging.

This concentration of a few stocks driving the market suggests a narrow foundation, which is a recurring theme for the US stock market.

Examining the charts of four significant market influencers—Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, and AMD—reveals potential risks.

NVDA

After surpassing its June high, NVIDIA is now struggling to advance, as indicated by a negative divergence in the RSI and price.

A break below the support level of 130 could trigger further declines.

AMD

AMD’s chart shows a series of lower highs and lower lows, with a potential break in raw relative strength on the horizon.

If the price downtrend continues, it will very likely trigger the start of a new down leg in an already established relative downtrend.

TSLA

Tesla’s inability to overcome resistance between 270 and 275, coupled with a negative RSI divergence, suggests limited upside potential.

AAPL

Apple, which peaked in mid-July, has since experienced a downward trend.

A break below the crucial support level around 213 could lead to further losses and trigger a continued weakness in its relative strength.

Conclusion: The Market’s Narrow Foundation

The market is back at a narrow foundation as we have seen it before.

The risk remains high, especially if these four stocks fail to advance and begin to decline, and when the observed divergences come into play.

Such a scenario would undoubtedly challenge the S&P 500’s ability to climb higher.

#StayAlert and have a great weekend, –Julius

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Business

Super Micro’s $50 billion stock collapse underscores risk of AI hype

In March, Super Micro Computer was added to the S&P 500 after an epic run that lifted the stock by more than 2,000% in two years, dwarfing even Nvidia’s gains.

As it turned out, S&P was calling the top.

Less than two weeks after the index changes were announced, Super Micro reached its closing high of $118.81 and had a market cap of almost $70 billion. The stock is down 72% since then, pushing the valuation to under $20 billion, the first major sign in the public markets that the hype around artificial intelligence may not all be justified.

Super Micro is one of the primary vendors for building out Nvidia-based clusters of servers for training and deploying AI models.

The stock plunged 33% on Wednesday, after the company disclosed that its auditor, Ernst & Young, had resigned, saying it was “unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management.” It was down another 16% on Thursday.

Super Micro is now at risk of being delisted from the Nasdaq, and has until Nov. 16 to regain compliance with the stock exchange.

“We see higher delisting risk in the absence of an auditor and the potential challenge to getting a new one,” analysts at Mizuho, who have the equivalent of a hold rating on the stock, wrote in a report Wednesday.

Ernst & Young was new to the job, having just replaced Deloitte & Touche as Super Micro’s accounting firm in March 2023.

A Super Micro spokesperson told CNBC in a statement that the company “disagrees with E&Y’s decision to resign, and we are working diligently to select new auditors.”

Representatives for Ernst & Young and Deloitte didn’t respond to requests for comment.

For much of Super Micro’s three decades in business, the company existed well below the radar, plodding along as a relatively obscure Silicon Valley data center company.

That all changed in late 2022 after OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT set off a historic wave of investment in AI processors, largely supplied by Nvidia. Along with Dell, Super Micro has been among the big tangential winners in the Nvidia boom, packaging up the powerful graphics processing units (GPUs) inside customized servers.

Super Micro’s revenue has at least doubled in each of the prior three quarters, though the company hasn’t filed official financial disclosures with the SEC since May.

Wall Street’s mood on the company has shifted dramatically.

Since the S&P’s announced index changes in March, Super Micro’s stock has dropped at least 10% on several separate occasions. The most concerning slide, prior to Wednesday, came on Aug. 28, when the shares sank 19% after Super Micro said it wouldn’t file its annual report with the SEC on time.

“Additional time is needed for SMCI’s management to complete its assessment of the design and operating effectiveness of its internal controls over financial reporting as of June 30, 2024,” the company said.

Noted short seller Hindenburg Research then disclosed a short position in the company, and said in a report that it identified “fresh evidence of accounting manipulation.” The Wall Street Journal later reported that the Department of Justice was at the early stages of a probe into the company.

The month after announcing its report delay, Super Micro said it had received a notification from the Nasdaq, indicating that the delay in the filing of its annual report meant the company wasn’t in compliance with the exchange’s listing rules. Super Micro said the Nasdaq’s rules allowed the company 60 days to file its report or submit a plan to regain compliance. Based on that timeframe, the deadline would be mid-November.

It wouldn’t be the first for Super Micro. The company was previously delisted by the Nasdaq in 2018.

Wedbush analysts see reason for worry.

“With SMCI having missed the deadline to file its 10K and the clock ticking for SMCI to remedy this issue, we see this development as a significant hurdle standing in the way of SMCI’s path to filing in time to avoid delisting,” the analysts, who recommend holding the stock, wrote in a report.

As Super Micro’s stock was in the midst of its steepest sell-off since 2018 on Wednesday, the company put out a press release announcing that it would “provide a first quarter fiscal 2025 business update” on Tuesday, Nov. 5.

That’s Election Day in the U.S.

Super Micro’s spokesperson told CNBC that the company doesn’t expect matters raised by Ernst & Young to “result in any restatements of its quarterly financial results for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, or for prior fiscal years.”

The selloff continued on Thursday, with the stock falling to its lowest level since January. Analysts at Gordon Haskett called the Ernst & Young news a “backbreaker,” while Argus Research downgraded the stock, in the intermediate firm, to a hold, citing the Hindenburg note, report of the Justice Department investigation and the departure of Super Micro’s accounting firm.

“The company’s loss of its auditing firm and the DoJ investigation mean that the stock no longer trades on fundamentals,” Argus analyst Jim Kelleher wrote.

Beyond Super Micro, the evolving incident is a potential black eye for S&P Dow Jones. Since Super Micro replaced Whirlpool in the S&P 500, shares of the home appliance company are down about 3%, underperforming the broader market but holding up much better than the stock that took its place.

Inclusion in the S&P 500 often causes a stock to rise, because money managers tracking the index have to buy shares to reflect the changes. That means pension and retirement funds have more exposure to the index’s members. Super Micro shot up 19% on March 4, the first trading day after the announcement.

A spokesperson for S&P Global said the company doesn’t comment on individual constituents or index changes, and pointed to its methodology document for general rules. The primary requirements for inclusion are positive GAAP earnings over the four latest quarters and a market cap of at least $18 billion.

S&P is able to make unscheduled changes to its indexes at any time “in response to corporate actions and market developments.”

Kevin Barry, chief investment officer at Cantata Wealth, says greater consideration should be given to a stock’s volatility when additions are made to such a heavily tracked index, especially given that tech already accounts for about 30% of its weighting.

“The chances of a stock going up 10 or 20 times in a year or two and then having an indigestion moment is extremely high,” said Barry, who co-founded Cantata this year. “You’re moving out of a low-volatility stock into a higher-volatility stock, when tech already represents the largest sector by far in the index.”

— CNBC’s Rohan Goswami and Kif Leswing contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Can Kalen DeBoer’s Alabama be resurrected? LSU gets the last word

To live up to his own expectations, Kalen DeBoer and Alabama must beat LSU.
Alabama and LSU remain College Football Playoff contenders, but only one will remain so on Nov. 10.
CFP will strongly consider strength of schedule, but where’s the transparency?

No, I didn’t predict he’d lose to Vanderbilt. Only folks with an anchor tattooed to their chest might have figured that. And I also didn’t think Alabama would blitz Georgia.

Here’s what I did expect, though: Alabama would need to beat either Tennessee or LSU to make the playoff in DeBoer’s first season.

The Crimson Tide lost to Tennessee, so their season rides on beating LSU on Nov. 9.

I’ll state it cleanly: If Alabama makes the College Football Playoff in DeBoer’s first season, he’s been a Year 1 success. Yes, he lost to Vanderbilt, but if he makes the playoff, so what? Nick Saban lost to Louisiana-Monroe in his first season, and that worked out OK in the long run. Pile up enough victories, and a black eye fades.

If Alabama loses to LSU (or a subsequent game) and misses the playoff, then DeBoer’s first season becomes a bust.

Don’t just take it from me. Let me remind you what DeBoer said before the season when I asked him whether he considered making the CFP in his first season a reasonable expectation.

‘That’s the expectation,’ DeBoer told me in June.

So, playoff or bust. That’s the standard, straight from the coach’s mouth.

After Alabama lost to Tennessee, I grabbed the shovel and prepared to start scooping dirt on the idea of the Tide as a playoff team. It wasn’t just that the Vols beat the Tide 24-17. It’s how they lost.

All slop, no sizzle.

Quarterback Jalen Milroe, a Heisman contender after September, regressed into a slump. Alabama played as undisciplined as ever and became a walking, talking penalty.

Jim Mora voice …

Playoffs?! Don’t talk about playoffs. You kidding me? Playoffs?!

Now, though, after Alabama trounced Missouri in what could become a get-right game, I’ve put down the shovel, but I’m keeping it close at hand. It will be needed Nov. 9, after Alabama plays LSU.

Two playoff contenders will step into Tiger Stadium. Only one will emerge with playoff hopes intact.

Alabama and LSU are open this week, giving the teams two weeks to prepare for their rival. Each team is capable of exploiting the other’s weakness.

LSU looked inept at defending the read-option in last weekend’s loss at Texas A&M, so much so that coach Brian Kelly suggested that future opponents would be foolish not to run the quarterback against LSU.

That’s a dream for Alabama. Milroe’s legs are an asset.

Alabama’s defense gets squishy, too, and it doesn’t consistently pressure the passer. When LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier gets time to let it rip, he’s as good as any SEC quarterback.

Neither Alabama nor LSU would be assured an at-large playoff bid with a 10-2 record, but either will tout a strong strength of schedule that would become difficult for the CFP committee to ignore. Schedule strength will be a core selection criterion.

‘Record matters,’ CFP executive director Rich Clark said, ‘but we’re not trying to pick the most deserving teams. We’re trying to pick the best teams. This committee has got to look at (a team’s) entire body of work.’

Alabama’s subsequent games come against Oklahoma, Mercer and Auburn to form about as enviable of a closing draw as it could hope for, but that’ll be moot if the Tide loses to LSU.

Even with a loss to Vanderbilt, a 10-win Alabama with victories against Georgia, LSU and Missouri would tout a healthy body of work.

So, while one SEC power will be buried Nov. 9, the other will resurrect its playoff bid.

Here’s what else I’m eyeing in this view from the ‘Topp Rope’:

CFP process needs more transparency

Clark, the CFP executive director, mentioned these factors as criteria the selection committee will consider when ranking teams: Win-loss record, strength of schedule, head-to-head outcomes, performance against common opponents and the subjective eye test.

That all sounds reasonable enough, but the committee’s persistent lack of transparency remains an issue.

For example, the selection committee will use strength of schedule ratings compiled by SportSource Analytics. That SportSource strength of schedule data won’t be available to the public.

“That strength of schedule metric is really sophisticated,” Clark said. “It not only looks at what your opponents’ records are, but it looks at what your opponents’ opponents records are, so that it can come up with a way to evaluate the actual strength of schedule.”

We’ll have to take his word for it, because we won’t see the data or what goes into compiling it.

Emails of the week

DJ writes: Disclosure: I’m a Notre Dame fan. I enjoyed your article on Texas A&M immensely.  I feel you better described the situation in College Station better than anyone. It was so well-written.

My response: What flattery. Notre Dame fans have become the Aggies’ biggest ally. A win for Texas A&M is a win for Notre Dame, considering the Irish’s Week 1 victory in College Station.

Mike writes: Is there any other profession on earth (other than coaching) where you are wildly financially rewarded for failing?

My response: Elected official comes to mind. A U.S. Senator can spend six years achieving very little in office, then get re-elected to another term, and the salary is not half bad. Then comes the book deal.

Three and out

1. We appear to be headed toward a logjam of one- and two-loss teams seeking an at-large playoff bid. With that in mind, Ohio State could find itself on the wrong side of the bubble if it suffers its second loss Saturday against Penn State. Road games at Oregon and Penn State were a tough draw for the Buckeyes, but if they lose to both, there’s not much on the résumé to prop them up. Their best win came against Iowa. While it’s hard to envision a team as talented as OSU not making the playoff, a 10-2 record would put it in a vulnerable spot.

2. Two weeks ago, I omitted Notre Dame from my list of national championship contenders. I cannot unsee its loss to Northern Illinois. However, Irish quarterback Riley Leonard is playing much better, the defense is dependable, and that Week 1 win at Texas A&M looks better and better. The Irish are clearly a playoff contender, and I’ve nearly seen enough to elevate them to national title contender.

3. Texas A&M came within a mosquito’s whisker of hiring Kentucky’s Mark Stoops to replace Jimbo Fisher. Word leaked. Fans balked and shot down the trial balloon. So many holes riddled that trial balloon it never again would take flight. So, Stoops, whether by his choice or the Aggies’ decision, depending on who tells the story, stayed at Kentucky. Texas A&M hired Mike Elko. Fast forward 11 months, and Stoops looks past his peak, while Elko positioned the Aggies atop the SEC standings. God bless fan revolts, eh?  

The ‘Topp Rope’ is his football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. 

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What to know for WWE Crown Jewel 2024: Time, match card, more

Titles on the line, champions facing champions and the next chapter of rivalries are just some of the things in store for the 2024 edition of WWE Crown Jewel.

An annual premium live event hosted in Saudi Arabia, the sixth edition of Crown Jewel will have seven matches, four of which are for titles. There will be inter-brand matchups between Undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes and World Heavyweight Champion Gunther, as well as Women’s Champion Nia Jax vs. Women’s World Champion Liv Morgan, and the winner of each match will win a newly unveiled Crown Jewel title. The United States and Women’s Tag Team Championships will also be defended. The other three matches will feature some heated feuds that should excite, including the old Bloodline facing the new version.

Here is what to know for this year’s Crown Jewel:

When is Crown Jewel 2024?

Bad Blood 2024 is Saturday, Nov. 2 at 1 p.m. ET.

Where is Crown Jewel 2024?

Crown Jewel 2024 is taking place at Mohammed Abdo Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

How to watch Crown Jewel 2024: TV channel, streaming

The event can be streamed on Peacock, but you must have their premium or premium-plus subscription to watch. Internationally, it will be available on WWE Network.

Is there a Crown Jewel 2024 preshow?

WWE has not announced a preshow will air ahead of Crown Jewel.

Crown Jewel 2024 match card

Matches not in order

WWE Crown Jewel Championship match: Undisputed WWE Champion Cody Rhodes vs. World Heavyweight Champion Gunther
WWE Women’s Crown Jewel Championship match: WWE Women’s Champion Nia Jax vs. Women’s World Champion Liv Morgan
Triple threat match for United States Championship: LA Knight (c) vs. Andrade vs. Carmelo Hayes
Fatal-four way tag team match for WWE Women’s Tag Team Championship: Jade Cargill and Bianca Belair (c) vs. Kairi Sane and Iyo Sky vs. Lash Legend and Jakara Jackson vs. Chelsea Green and Piper Niven
Roman Reigns, Jey Uso and Jimmy Uso vs. The Bloodline (Solo Sikoa, Tama, Tonga Loa and Jacob Fatu)
Seth Rollins vs. Bronson Reed
Randy Orton vs. Kevin Owens

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How an offense like a DQ Blizzard hopes to lead Penn State past Ohio State

After two years as the offensive coordinator at the University of Mary, a Division II program in Bismarck, North Dakota, the chance to take the same position at Division III powerhouse Wisconsin-Whitewater represented a major step up the coaching ladder for Andy Kotelnicki.

He’d played offensive line at Division III Wisconsin-River Falls and spent five seasons as the school’s offensive coordinator before being hired by former Mary coach Myron Schulz. Winners of five of the previous six national championships when Kotelnicki was approached by former Whitewater coach Lance Leipold following the 2012 season, the Warhawks presented a larger platform, a bigger stage and the chance to prove something: That his offensive scheme and philosophy would travel across different levels of competition.

I want to go to a place where I know it’s me or it’s not me, Kotelnicki told Schulz, meaning a program that was on par in terms of talent and resources with teams in the same orbit.

“I respected him for that,” Schulz said.

After helping Whitewater go back-to-back as unbeaten national champions in 2013 and 2014, Kotelnicki would follow Leipold to Buffalo and then to Kansas, where he was instrumental in the Jayhawks’ rapid and remarkable climb from the bottom rung of the Bowl Subdivision.

But there are few programs bigger than Penn State, where Kotelnicki is in his first season, and few games bigger than the No. 3 Nittany Lions’ matchup on Saturday against No. 4 Ohio State. With Kotelnicki at the controls, a unique and constantly evolving offense has driven an unbeaten push into November and raised hopes that this is the year PSU makes the leap to the top of the Big Ten.

“We kind of started to look at who are the coordinators and who are the teams that are producing explosive plays, and not just because their genetics are better,” Penn State coach James Franklin said. “Where are the explosive plays coming from? How are they being created? Are they happening on a consistent basis? Also, are they doing it against their biggest competition? When you kind of looked at those types of things, the list narrowed down pretty quickly.”

Kotelnicki’s ‘fusion,’ ‘Blizzard’ offense

The scheme Kotelnicki brought to Penn State is a study in contrasts: wordy but not necessarily complex, impossible to pigeonhole into one specific style, quarterback-driven but not pass-happy.

The defining characteristic is an ability to engineer tentativeness and confusion with pre-snap motions and shifts. In his own words, the system is like a Dairy Queen Blizzard — a mixed-up, stirred-together hodgepodge of this, that and the other that is still, at its base level, almost entirely vanilla ice cream.

“The Blizzard, in itself, is a wonderful dessert,” Kotelnicki said in August. “It looks complicated because it’s messy inside, right, and the person working there puts that in the machine with the ice cream. But fundamentally, it’s mostly made up of what, vanilla ice cream? That’s what we talk about, is simplicity versus complexion. It’s going to look really complex, but all it is, is two ingredients mixed together.”

Kotelnicki developed the scheme by taking bits of pieces of the coaches and offenses he’s worked for and with along the way, with these influences eventually blending together to form what has been one of the most creative offenses in the Power Four.

“He’s very analytic, very intelligent, but he’s really good at what I’d call ‘fusion,’ like in the food sense,” said Shulz. “Where you take two types of cultures and you fuse them together. He gets ideas and he fuses them into one thing.”

What has made the system so difficult to defend is the window dressing that occurs in the interlude between when the offense breaks the huddle — often in a flash, which Kotelnicki calls “Sugar Huddles” — and the snap. What unfolds is a dance that keeps defenses off balance and uncomfortable: skill players will be sent in motion, shifted on and off the line of scrimmage, and often placed in disorienting alignment — such as a wide receiver originally lined up in the backfield — before being flexed into a more traditional formation.

“Every defensive system is going to have its weakness,” said former Wisconsin-River Falls coach John O’Grady, “and it seems like he really understands that well and can exploit it. He really studies defenses and he’s able to exploit them.”

The end goal is to wobble defenses and disrupt timing, leaving defenders one beat late as they attempt to run through pre-snap diagnoses and guess what will happen next.

“His goal was always to put the defense in some form of stress,” Shulz said. “And that’s either by playing fast, that’s either with checks or that’s with a bunch of window dressing with formation shifts and motions. They can’t just put their cleats in the ground and be lined up and ready to play. They’ve always got to be thinking and checking.”

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Small-school roots lead to Penn State

Kotelnicki started coaching partway through his senior year at River Falls, when a broken ankle ended his season and led him to ask O’Grady: Can I help you guys coach?

“Andy jumped right into it,” O’Grady said. “You could tell, this was not just going to be a hobby for him. This was going to be a lifestyle. When that injury occurred and he started coaching, it became apparent immediately that this guy wanted to coach and he was going to be really good at it.”

Kotelnicki’s path to Penn State from the bottom rungs of college football has helped to shape his career and his coaching worldview, according to those who worked with him on the Division II and III levels.

The dramatically smaller staff sizes on these levels compared to the Bowl Subdivision often force coaches to wear multiple hats. At River Falls, for example, where there were only three full-time assistants on staff, Kotelnicki helped coach the secondary.

The same programs are so limited compared to the bells and whistles found at programs such as Kansas and Penn State that coaches “learn to do more with less,” said Schulz.

“Plus you’re a jack of all trades, plus you have to learn how to coach all positions. I think you really learn how to coach and how to coach everything. You don’t get siloed into a certain position.”

The most remarkable aspect of Kotelnicki’s rise to Penn State is that it happened at all. The wide majority of FBS head coaches and coordinators don’t start at the very bottom of college football, though current success stories such as Leipold, Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer and Kansas State’s Chris Klieman have bucked that trend.

“It’s hard to get to the upper levels when you’re from a Division III school. It’s extremely difficult,” O’Grady said. “The high-level coaching communities, it’s extremely difficult to get there. I’m not surprised by what he’s done, but it’s surprising that he’s been able to make it as far as he has. Because that’s tough.

“Did I ever think he would reach this level? Probably not. Because I probably didn’t think he had much of a chance. Did I think he had developed himself as a coach to coach pretty much anywhere? Yeah, no question about it.”

Penn State’s huge offensive improvement

Kotelnicki’s impact on Penn State can be seen in its unbeaten record and the profound improvement of an offense that has spent a good chunk of the Franklin era as a hit-or-miss frustration.

A year ago, the Nittany Lions finished 55th nationally in yards per game and 75th in yards per play, dropping to 100th nationally in yards per snap in conference play. While effective at avoiding turnovers, Penn State’s passing game ranked tied for 90th in the FBS in yards per pass attempt and 57th in efficiency rating.

Through eight games, this year’s team is up to 13th in yards per game, increasing that total by more than 60 yards per game, and has soared to fifth among Power Four teams in yards per play.

The improvement through the air has been almost remarkable: the Nittany Lions rank 29th in the FBS in passing yards per game despite being 115th nationally in total attempts. The Nittany Lions are sixth in yards per pass and fifth efficiency rating.

But this increase in production has come against a schedule featuring no team currently ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll and just two opponents, Illinois and Wisconsin, currently with a winning record. Ohio State’s defense will provide a different sort of test.

It’s also a key marker for how far this offense has come under Kotelnicki. A year ago, the Nittany Lions scored a combined 27 points and averaged only 3.7 yards per play in losses to the Buckeyes and Michigan. Across 12 games against ranked competition from 2021-23, Penn State completed 55.8% of pass attempts on 6.3 yards per throw. But the offense helping beat Ohio State for just the second time in James Franklin’s 11-season tenure is the ultimate litmus test.

“We’re going to be challenged this week and we need to step up to the plate,” said left tackle Drew Shelton.

Last weekend’s win against the Badgers showed the Nittany Lions’ adaptability. With starting quarterback Drew Allar injured late in the first half, they turned to backup Drew Pribula, who completed 11 of 13 attempts for 98 yards and a touchdown with another 28 rushing yards to key the 28-13 win. Last season at Kansas, the Jayhawks lost starting quarterback Jalon Daniels after just three games but rallied behind backup Jason Bean to win nine games and finish in the Top 25 for the first time since 2007.

That’s the Kotelnicki system in action: Like a Blizzard, the pieces within the offense can be mixed and matched to provide subtle changes to the larger formula.

“What’s nice about us, and it was a big reason in bringing Andy here,” Franklin said, “is we do enough things and we have enough diversity within our playbook that we are able to focus on the strengths of the players that are in there.”

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