Usually playing against Mercer doesn’t result in a team improving its College Football Playoff seeding. But this week’s bowl projections see Alabama rise into the No. 2 spot in the field as the Crimson Tide are forecasted as the SEC champions.

The team Alabama replaces is Texas. While the Longhorns beat Arkansas, there are questions whether they can defeat both Texas A&M and the Crimson Tide away from home to secure the conference title. And the lack of quality wins on the Texas resume means its seeding slot should fall behind other contenders Georgia and Mississippi

The other big news in the projection sees Colorado enter the CFP field as the Big 12 champions. The Buffaloes are the hottest team in the league and need only two more wins to reach the title game. Meanwhile, BYU falls completely out of the field with little chance for an at-large berth should it not win out the rest of the way.

Heading into the final two weeks before championship weekend, there still could be some twists and turns. The Ohio State-Indiana showdown in the Big Ten should bring some clarity to that conference race. The SEC will be muddled until Week 14 results. The ACC and Big 12 also have some sorting out to do. But it feels like several of the at-large spots are set unless there are some major upsets.

CALM DOWN: The five biggest overreactions from Week 12

Note: Legacy Pac-12 schools in other conferences will fulfill existing Pac-12 bowl agreements through the 2025 season.

This should be a pretty easy night for the College Football Playoff selection committee.

While Tennessee and Brigham Young will drop after losses on Saturday, the top five of the playoff rankings will remain the same while three teams from the SEC move up to replace the Volunteers and Cougars.

But there are still some unanswered questions heading into Tuesday night. For one, we’ll see how the committee addresses the Big 12. How far will BYU fall? Will the top-ranked team from the Big 12 come in after Boise State, and if so, what does that tell us about the opening-round bye given to the top four conference champions in the Bowl Subdivision?

Where does Tennessee land among two-loss SEC teams? Look for the Volunteers to come in near the back of the line, behind Alabama, Georgia and Mississippi despite an earlier win against the Crimson Tide. That speaks to the slim path Tennessee now has for an at-large bid.

Another factor to keep in mind is how many teams from the SEC make the rankings. With so many teams from the conference in the mix for at-large bids, the committee will lean heavily on marquee wins against ranked competition to differentiate between contenders with identical records.

These questions and more loom large heading into Tuesday night:

What about Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia?

All three should move up two spots from a week ago. The one potential catch is Georgia’s win, which might lead the committee to reconsider the head-to-head results that governed last Tuesday’s rankings. Another factor in Georgia’s favor is a schedule that might be the toughest of any playoff contender. But doing so would ignore the way the Rebels dominated the Bulldogs two weeks ago. Here’s how the top four in the SEC should look: No. 3 Texas, No. 8 Alabama, No. 9 Georgia, No. 10 Mississippi.

Will Brigham Young come in behind Boise State?

Almost definitely. No. 6 last Tuesday, the Cougars should land no higher than No. 13, one spot or more behind Boise State, after losing 17-13 to Kansas. There are two main reasons to expect a significant drop. The first is a schedule that has just three wins against bowl teams. One of those wins, to Kansas State, has lust some luster with the Wildcats’ struggles in November. Another factor is the lack of game control in Big 12 wins against Oklahoma State and Utah, two teams ranked at the bottom of the conference standings.

CALM DOWN: The five biggest overreactions from Week 12

And does that mean a first-round bye for Boise?

It may look that way as of Tuesday night, but hanging onto that fourth spot among FBS conference champions won’t be easy. Boise State’s issue is the inability to add another marquee win before the end of the regular season. The Broncos face Wyoming and Oregon State to end this month and are currently slated to meet Colorado State for the Mountain West title. Getting UNLV instead of the Rams would help but wouldn’t be enough to fend off the Big 12 champion, especially if that’s BYU or Colorado.

Is the Big 12 looking like a one-bid league?

Barring unforeseeable chaos in the Big Ten and SEC, the Big 12 champion will be the league’s only playoff representative. Given that the Wildcats and Iowa State have dropped out of the picture, that was probably going to be the case even had BYU run the table; the loss to the Jayhawks only confirms that the conference championship game will be a winner-take-all matchup. The Cougars will reach the title game with a win this weekend against Arizona State. Colorado needs to get past KU and then beat Oklahoma State.

How many teams from the SEC?

There will be at least one fewer than the nine from a week ago after LSU lost to Florida. The number could be seven if the committee drops Missouri, which was No. 23 last Tuesday but lost in the final seconds to South Carolina. That sort of competitive loss to a ranked opponent typically doesn’t result in a big drop, however, so the Tigers should hold onto a spot somewhere around last week’s ranking. Another factor helping Missouri is the total lack of viable replacements from the rest of the Power Four.

The best bet is for there to be eight teams from the SEC in this order: the Longhorns, Tide, Bulldogs, Rebels, Tennessee, Texas A&M, the Gamecocks and Missouri.

It would appear the Dallas Cowboys have let the 2024 season get away from them, but Jerry Jones still feels there’s reason for optimism.

After their most recent loss, the Cowboys’ team owner, president and general manager did not promise any concrete changes but swore, ‘There are better days ahead.’

With their 34-10 loss to the Houston Texans on ‘Monday Night Football’ in Week 11, the Cowboys have lost five straight games to fall to 3-7. They’ve also lost six straight games at home, dating back to last year’s wild-card round defeat at the hands of the Green Bay Packers.

Yet despite how the season has gone so far, Jones didn’t indicate that any major or imminent changes were to come in the near future when he joined Dallas-Fort Worth radio station 105.3 The Fan on Tuesday morning.

Jones has already said he has no plans to make a change at head coach in the middle of the season. After last week’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, he confirmed that the team would stick with Mike McCarthy, at least for the remainder of the season.

All things Cowboys: Latest Dallas Cowboys news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

On Tuesday’s radio hit, he also shared that despite Tyler Guyton’s struggles, there are no plans to shake up the left tackle situation or change things up under center.

Cowboys sticking with Cooper Rush

Quarterback Cooper Rush made his second start of the season in the loss to Houston on Monday. Despite what the box score numbers said, his Week 11 performance – 32-of-55 (58.2%) with 354 yards, a touchdown and an interception – showed more areas of concern.

Rush took over as the Cowboys’ quarterback following Dak Prescott’s hamstring injury in the fourth quarter of a Week 9 clash with the Falcons. Since being inserted under center, Rush has had the worst efficiency numbers of any quarterback in the NFL over that same span.

Despite an expected completion percentage of 70.6% – the fifth-highest in the league between Weeks 9-11 per rbdsm.com – his actual completion rate is 57.4, the second-worst in that span. That leaves his completion percentage over expected (CPOE) at -13.2, the only mark below -10.

In addition, Rush is the third-worst quarterback by expected points added (EPA) per play over the last three weeks. Only Joe Flacco (-0.361) and Mac Jones (-0.342) have done less for their team’s scoring success than Rush (-0.287).

Yet despite that, and trading for quarterback Trey Lance before last season, Jones has squashed any discussion of making a change at quarterback. Instead, he gave Rush an extra vote of confidence on his Tuesday appearance on local sports radio.

‘I thought Rush actually had improvement last night from the game before (12-of-23 for 45 yards vs. Philadelphia),’ he said. ‘Frankly, there were times in that ballgame (vs. Houston) that I thought it was really coming to him. We know that we’ve got limited time to work with these quarterbacks at this particular time, and I would look for us to stay with the experience.’

Jones shot down the idea that the lack of playing time for Lance was an indication of a misevaluation of the former first-round pick. Instead, he noted that Lance had improved while continuing to point to Rush’s experience – and Lance’s lack thereof – as the real reason for the decision to stick with the more veteran option.

‘You’ve got to get out there, and you’ve got to play,’ Jones said. ‘We have thought it was just too important for us to have him at rookie quarterback in these last two ballgames because we need to win. (Note: Lance is in his fourth NFL season.)

‘We hadn’t gotten to the point that we were looking to evaluate Trey Lance at all. So that’s where we are.’

They were longtime rivals, but always remained friends as they both chased tennis immortality.

On Tuesday, with Rafael Nadal preparing to play in his final tournament before retiring, Swiss star Roger Federer paid tribute with a heartfelt post on social media to the man who won 22 Grand Slam singles titles – two more than Federer himself.

‘As you get ready to graduate from tennis, I’ve got a few things to share before I maybe get emotional,’ Federer said on X. ‘Let’s start with the obvious: you beat me – a lot. More than I managed to beat you. You challenged me in ways no one else could.’

To be fair, their head-to-head record was close – with Nadal winning 24 times to Federer’s 20 dating back to their first meeting at the 2004 Miami Open.

But their rivalry was also with history.

Nadal and Federer, along with Novak Djokovic (24 Grand Slam titles), had a stranglehold on major championships in men’s tennis for over two decades.

‘You made me reimagine my game – even going so far as to change the size of my racquet head, hoping for any edge,’ Federer continued. ‘I’m not a very superstitious person, but you took it to the next level. Your whole process. All those rituals.’

Federer went on to praise Nadal’s unrivaled dominance on clay: ‘What an incredible run you’ve had. Including 14 French Opens – historic! You made Spain proud … you made the whole tennis world proud.’

When Federer played his final match before retiring in 2022, Nadal was there on the court as they joined forces for Team Europe at the Laver Cup.

‘It meant everything to me that you were there by my side – not as my rival but as my doubles partner,’ Federer said. ‘Sharing the court with you that night, and sharing those tears, will forever be one of the most special moments of my career.’

Nadal will also conclude his career in a team event, as Spain takes on the Netherlands in the Davis Cup semifinals.

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Everything is bigger in Texas, including the Cowboys’ problems. That much was magnified in a 34-10 loss to the Texans on ‘Monday Night Football.’

The franchise quarterback, Dak Prescott, is out for the season. The tight end, Jake Ferguson, left the game with a concussion. The offense looks disjointed. The defense can’t stop the run. The punter is throwing fake punt passes like he’s warming up the infield with pop ups on the baseball diamond. The coach appears to be firmly in a lame duck session.

The sun shining through the windows is blinding players from catching potential touchdowns. The roof is dropping big pieces of metal on the field.

Half the roster includes names that seem like they were auto-generated in the fifth season of a Madden franchise. Needless to say, everything is bad for the Cowboys. As if it couldn’t get any worse, they were throttled by their neighbors from Houston on ‘Monday Night Football.’ From head slaps to turnovers and fights, this game had a little bit of everything.

The battle for Texas was anything but, as the Texans took care of business in Dallas. While Houston will be happy with the result that moves their record to 7-4, they walk away still in search of some answers. They were held without an offensive touchdown until there were three minutes remaining. The passing game was hit-and-miss, showing some flashes.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

As it’s been the case all year, Houston will have Joe Mixon to thank for lifting up the offense. The running back carried the ball 20 times for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns. He added two catches for 44 yards, adding to what’s been a dream first season in H-Town.

The Texans remain in firm control in the AFC South, while the Cowboys turn their attention to Tankathon, no matter how much they say otherwise.

USA TODAY Sports will provided live updates, highlights and more from the Texans vs. Cowboys tilt below:

Cowboys-Texans score: Joe Mixon hits pay dirt for TD No. 3

It’s the Joe Mixon show in Big D.

The Texans running back notched his third touchdown of the ‘Monday Night Football’ affair, sealing the game for Houston. Mix has 153 total yards on the night.

Cowboys’ Cooper Rush eats back-to-back sacks

If you were hoping for a Cowboys comeback, this update is not for you. The Texans are punishing Cooper Rush right now, dropping him for a sack on back-to-back plays. It results in another turnover on downs, but Dallas has to be hoping to speed up the clock here down the stretch.

Cowboys-Texans score: Texans force two fumbles on same play for scoop-and-score

Derek Barnett can’t keep his hands to himself, but this time he does it in a legal way. The former Eagle slaps the arm of Cooper Rush, jarring the ball loose. The mayhem ends with Barnett celebrating in the end zone, giving the Texans a 17-point lead in what should be the dagger for this anemic Cowboys’ offense as the remaining fans in attendance likely rush for the exits. Texans 27, Cowboys 10

What is the longest field goal in NFL history?

Brandon Aubrey’s 64-yard field goal was wiped off the board because of the head slap, but it still would’ve been two yards short of tying the NFL record.

Justin Tucker set the record in 2021 with a 66-yarder against the Detroit Lions and Aubrey is next in line with a 65-yarder that he made against the Ravens in Week 3 of the 2024 season.

Cowboys come up empty following head slap penalty

The Cowboys will be slapping themselves in the head after how that drive ended.

Dallas turns it over on downs as Cooper Rush is unable to connect with Jonathan Mingo for what would’ve been a touchdown on fourth-and-2. It takes three points off the board, which Dallas already did when they, rightfully, accepted the 15-yard personal foul for a head slap.

What is a head slap in the NFL? Texans defender called for rare penalty

Derek Barnett has reintroduced a penalty to the NFL world on this Monday night in November. The Texans’ defender was called for a head slap on a 64-yard field goal try from Brandon Aubrey, resulting in a 15-yard penalty.

The head slap is exactly what it sounds like: It’s when a player hits an opposing player in the head and was outlawed by the NFL in 1977.

Joe Mixon stats

While the Texans’ passing attack hasn’t lived up to the hype in 2024, it’s been Mixon that’s picked up the slack. That is no different tonight as the running back has carried the ball 12 times for 75 yards and two touchdowns. He’s also added a catch for 37 yards, bringing him over 100 yards from scrimmage for the sixth time in eight games.

Cowboys-Texans score: Another Fairbairn field goal furthers Texans lead

Joe Mixon drops what would’ve been a walk-in touchdown, forcing the Texans to settle for a field goal. Ka’imi Fairbairn knocks it through from 29 yards to stretch the lead back to 10.

Houston has been stuck in the mud since Mixon’s second touchdown in the first quarter, which might not hurt them this week, but could be an issue against better opponents down the stretch and into the postseason. Texans 20, Cowboys 10

How much does Cooper Rush make?

The 31-year-old Rush signed a two-year deal worth $5 million ahead of the 2023 season, which brings his career earnings to just under $9 million. The Cowboys will hope that Rush can lead them to some wins in a lost season while their franchise quarterback watches from a suite.

Cowboys sputter after halftime

Similar to the end of the first half, the second half begins without much incident. Mike McCarthy wanted his offense to put a drive together and they did exactly that – if the goal was to go three-and-out.

Halftime: Texans lead Cowboys in funky ‘MNF’ tilt

It’s halftime in Dallas after a funky first half from both sides. The Texans looked to be in control early, but the Cowboys responded, giving us a 17-10 score with 30 minutes to go.

Cooper Rush has been steady thus far, completing 15-of-27 passes for 172 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Houston’s rushing attack is the difference, as Joe Mixon turned in 71 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries. Dallas gets the ball to start the second half.

Brandon Aubrey misses first field goal at Cowboys home stadium

DOINK! Brandon Aubrey just gave us something you don’t see everyday – if ever. He slipped on a 40-yard field goal attempt with under a minute to go in the half, dinging it off the right upright. It’s the first time a Aubrey has missed a kick at AT&T Stadium.

That keeps the score at 17-10 and Jerry Jones might be forced to consider installing a new turf at halftime – after he gets the roof repaired, of course.

Cowboys-Texans score: Cowboys inch closer with Brandon Aubrey field goal

Maybe the Cowboys were onto something with Cooper Rush. Or maybe the Texans aren’t that good. You be the judge, but Dallas is hanging around in this one.

A 53-yard field goal from the automatic Brandon Aubrey cuts the Houston lead to seven once again with just under six minutes to go in the half. Texans 17, Cowboys 10

Brandon Aubrey longest field goal

Aubrey made the longest kick of his career during Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. On Dallas’ first possession, he attempted a 65-yarder in an effort to cut into the Baltimore Ravens’ 7-0 lead.

The kick split the uprights with room to spare.

Cowboys-Texans score: Texans settle for field goal

A long Texans’ drive ends in disappointing fashion as Houston settles for three from Ka’imi Fairbairn to stretch the lead to 10. He’s good from 33, but Houston will be kicking themselves after failing to get a touchdown following a nine-play drive that traveled 77 yards and took 5:38 off the clock. Texans 17, Cowboys 7

Cowboys-Texans score: KaVontae Turpin jets for touchdown

The Cowboys got some much-needed points on the board courtesy of KaVontae Turpin’s speed.

Cooper Rush hit Turpin on a slant route, and Turpin did the rest. The wide receiver took it 64 yards for the score, bringing Dallas to within a touchdown early in the second. Texas 14, Cowboys 7

Joe Mixon contract details 

Mixon is doing his best to buck the ‘running backs don’t matter’ trend. The former Cincinnati Bengal inked a three-year deal worth $25.5 million in the offseason and is proving to be worth every penny for the Texans. He’s gone over 100 yards rushing in 5 of 7 games and looks primed to make that 6 of 8 by the end of the night. Mixon’s nine rushing touchdowns are only four off from his career-high of 13, which came in 2021 with the Bengals.

Cowboys-Texans score: Joe Mixon scores second TD

Houston has added to their lead and it comes from a familiar face. Joe Mixon is into the end zone for his second touchdown of the game.

He’s already extended his scoring streak to six, but it’s been a big first quarter for the running back that was visibly frustrated last week. Dallas has no answers for the Houston running game thus far. Texans 14, Cowboys 0

Cooper Rush matches interception with one of his own

Cooper Rush has decided to get in on the turnover party.

CeeDee Lamb was running a slant but ran into a defender, allowing Derek Stingley Jr. with an opportunity to pad his stats, collecting an interception of his own. The teams trade turnovers and Houston takes over at their own 37.

CJ Stroud throws bad fourth-down interception

C.J. Stroud must’ve felt bad about the fake punt attempt because he just tossed one to Malik Hooker for an easy interception. Instead of settling for a field goal, Houston opted to go for it on fourth-and-3 from the Dallas 30-yard line. File that one away for later if the score stays close.

Cowboys fail fake punt

It’s time to cross Bryan Anger off the list of potential Cowboys’ starting QBs going forward.

Dallas attempts a fake punt, which ends about as miserably as expected. The list of follies continues to grow with each passing week.

Cowboys-Texans score: Joe Mixon scampers for early TD

The scoreboard reads 7-0 Texans, but it already feels like a 14-point lead.

Dallas’ defense has been sliced and diced in the early goings, first on a negated 77-yard touchdown to Nico Collins and now on a 45-yard run from Joe Mixon, that will stand. Texans 7, Cowboys 0

Nico Collins TD called back on penalty

Welcome back, Nico Collins. Kind of.

The first play from scrimmage for the Texans was a screen play to the returning wide receiver, and the wideout took it to the house for a TD. Unfortunately for the Texans – or fortunately for the Cowboys – the play was called back due to an ineligible man downfield penalty.

Cowboys vs. Texans start time

Start time: 8:15 p.m. ET (7:15 p.m. CT)
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Cowboys vs. Texans TV channel

TV channel: ABC | ESPN | ESPN2

ESPN again is the broadcast home of ‘Monday Night Football.’ The longtime team of Joe Buck (play-by-play) and Troy Aikman (color) will be on the call, with Lisa Salters adding reports from the sideline.

Viewers can also tune to ESPN2 for the ‘ManningCast’ featuring Peyton and Eli Manning.

Is CeeDee Lamb playing tonight?

Dallas’ executive vice president Stephen Jones told 105.3 The Fan on Monday that the Cowboys believe Lamb will be able to play on ‘Monday Night Football’ in Week 11.

Lamb popped up on the injury report with a back issue, but will play vs. the Texans.

Is Nico Collins playing tonight?

Collins is off the injury report and expected to take on a full workload tonight against the Cowboys.

The Texans designated Collins for return from injured reserve last Friday before their Week 10 game against the Detroit Lions on ‘Sunday Night Football,’ which marked the earliest Collins could return after being placed on IR.

Cowboys close stadium roof after metal sheets fall

The roof was supposed to open at AT&T Stadium for ‘Monday Night Football,’ but after a near accident, it will be closed.

The Dallas Cowboys are hosting the Houston Texans in the inter-state matchup on Monday night, and the home team decided to open the retractable roof of the stadium for the first time in more than two years. The social media account of the stadium even marked the occasion.

However, things went quickly south after the roof was opened. According to multiple reporters inside the stadium, not long after it was opened, a piece of sheet metal fell from the roof and onto the field. No one was hit by it, but reports said it came close to making contact with production staff on-site. — Jordan Mendoza

Why isn’t Trey Lance starting for the Cowboys? 

The Cowboys aren’t starting Trey Lance because they believe Cooper Rush gives them the best chance to stay competitive with Dak Prescott out. 

‘Cooper has shown that he has the capability to compete and win in games,’ Jones said in an interview on 105.3 The Fan after Week 10. ‘He does give us our best chance.’ 

Rush has largely been a winner in his limited reps as a starter. He entered the 2024 NFL season with a 5-1 record in six starts with the Cowboys. He won the first five starts of his career from 2021-22, becoming just the 14th quarterback – and first Cowboy – in NFL history to achieve that feat. – Jacob Camenker 

Cowboys vs. Texans live stream 

Live stream:  Fubo TV | ESPN+ 

For cord cutters looking for a live stream for the matchup, you can turn to Fubo TV. Fubo TV carries NBC, as well as CBS, FOX, NFL Network and the ESPN family of networks, meaning you can catch NFL action through the remainder of the season. 

ESPN+, the proprietary streaming service of ESPN, will also carry the game. 

Cowboys vs. Texans predictions, picks

Here’s how the USA TODAY Sports staff feels the Cowboys vs. Texans ‘Monday Night Football’ matchup will shake out:

Lorenzo Reyes: Texans 28, Cowboys 7
Tyler Dragon: Texans 27, Cowboys 21
Richard Morin: Texans 28, Cowboys 15
Jordan Mendoza: Texans 28, Cowboys 10

Cowboys vs. Texans odds, moneyline, over/under 

The Texans are favorites to defeat the Cowboys, according to the BetMGM NFL odds. Looking to wager? Check out the best mobile sports betting apps offering NFL betting promos in 2024 including the ESPN BET app and Fanatics Sportsbook promo code. 

Spread: Texans (-7.5) 
Moneyline: Texans (-375); Cowboys (+300) 
Over/under: 41.5

Not interested in this game? Our guide to NFL betting odds, picks and spreads has you covered with “Thursday Night Football” odds and “Sunday Night Football” odds. 

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Cowboys inactives vs. Texans

CB DaRon Bland
WR Jalen Brooks
ILB Damone Clark
DE KJ Henry
CB Jourdan Lewis
FB Hunter Luepke
OT Matt Waletzko

Texans inactives vs. Cowboys

CB Kamari Lassiter
DE Will Anderson Jr.
LB Jamal Hill
OT Blake Fisher
WR Steven Sims
DT Folorunso Fatukasi

Cowboys vs. Texans weather updates

The roof at AT&T Stadium was supposed to be open for Monday night’s game, but after a piece of sheet metal fell from the retractable roof and onto the field, the decision was made to close the roof for the game.

Game time temperatures are around 60 degrees in Arlington, Texas, according to AccuWeather. There is a 0% chance of precipitation during the game.

NFC East standings

Philadelphia Eagles: 8-2
Washington Commanders: 7-4
Dallas Cowboys: 3-6
New York Giants: 2-8

AFC South standings

Houston Texans: 6-4
Indianapolis Colts: 5-6
Tennessee Titans: 2-8
Jacksonville Jaguars: 2-9

Which NFL team has the most Super Bowl wins? 

The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the most Super Bowl wins with six. 

Pittsburgh and Dallas have the unique distinction of playing each other more than any other team combination in Super Bowl history with three matchups. 

The Dallas Cowboys have won five Super Bowls, with the team’s last Super Bowl appearance came during the 1995 season. The Texans are one of four teams that has never played in a Super Bowl.

NFL franchises with most Super Bowl wins:

New England Patriots — 6
Pittsburgh Steelers — 6
Dallas Cowboys — 5
San Francisco 49ers — 5
Green Bay Packers — 4
Kansas City Chiefs — 4
New York Giants — 4

Who is the highest-paid NFL player?  

The NFL’s top 18 players in average annual salary are all quarterbacks, according to OverTheCap.com. Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott became the league’s highest-paid player before the 2024 season, agreeing to a four-year, $240 million deal. Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson is the first non-quarterback on the highest-paid list after striking a four-year, $140 million contract extension this offseason.  

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Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable).

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday night, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 11 of the 2024 season complete:

AFC playoff picture

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-1), AFC West leaders: Their first loss of the year could be a significant one, the Bills now only needing to make up one more game on the reigning Super Bowl champs to take over the top spot. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Raiders, vs. Chargers, at Browns, vs. Texans, at Steelers, at Broncos

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

2. Buffalo Bills (9-2), AFC East leaders: They’ve won six straight after toppling K.C. and a fifth consecutive division title is practically a foregone conclusion. And, with that potentially pivotal head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, the Bills could soon steer the road to Super Bowl 59 through Western New York. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. 49ers, at Rams, at Lions, vs. Patriots, vs. Jets, at Patriots

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-2), AFC North leaders: Their defeat of the Ravens gives them breathing room atop the division and also makes them a viable threat to secure home-field advantage – Pittsburgh will assume the second seed with a win at Cleveland on Thursday. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Bengals, vs. Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

4. Houston Texans (7-4), AFC South leaders: They’ve still got a few issues to work through, primarily those that are injury related. But they should still cruise to a second straight division championship. Remaining schedule: vs. Titans, at Jaguars, BYE, vs. Dolphins, at Chiefs, vs. Ravens, at Titans

5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3), wild card No. 1: Their defense has been pretty tough. Their schedule has been anything but – though that began changing Sunday night. Still, the Bolts are starting to build a nice pad between themselves and the clubs chasing them – and even moved ahead of next week’s opponent, Baltimore. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Falcons, at Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, vs. Broncos, at Patriots, at Raiders

6. Baltimore Ravens (7-4), wild card No. 2: Good as they (usually) are, losses to the wrong teams could well mean no home playoff games this season. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Eagles, BYE, at Giants, vs. Steelers, at Texans, vs. Browns

7. Denver Broncos (6-5), wild card No. 3: They didn’t take their hooves off the gas against Atlanta and can’t do so in a larger sense as they try to hang onto this spot. Remaining schedule: at Raiders, vs. Browns, BYE, vs. Colts, at Chargers, at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (5-6), in the hunt: They’ll get key a shot at the Broncos down the road. Remaining schedule: vs. Lions, at Patriots, BYE, at Broncos, vs. Titans, at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Miami Dolphins (4-6), in the hunt: They’re building steam and jumped Cincy with Sunday’s win. An apparently forgiving schedule gives Fins a shot. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Packers, vs. Jets, at Texans, vs. 49ers, at Browns, at Jets

10. Cincinnati Bengals (4-7), in the hunt: Crushing losses the last two weeks might be too much to overcome. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Steelers, at Cowboys, at Titans, vs. Browns, vs. Broncos, at Steelers

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NFC playoff picture

1. Detroit Lions (9-1), NFC North leaders: After Sunday’s 52-6 walkover against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Lions’ biggest concern might be that they’re peaking too early. Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Packers, vs. Bills, at Bears, at 49ers, vs. Vikings

2. Philadelphia Eagles (8-2), NFC East leaders: Philly pulled away from Washington on Thursday night to solidify its hold on first place in the division – and might need that padding later in the process. However the Iggles are also now officially a clear and present danger to Detroit. Remaining schedule: at Rams, at Ravens, vs. Panthers, vs. Steelers, at Commanders, vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Arizona Cardinals (6-4), NFC West leaders: A bye week interrupted their four-game in streak. But Atlanta’s loss also moved Arizona up one spot in terms of seeding. The Cards’ 2-0 record in divisional games serves them well; their 3-3 mark in NFC games won’t help them in the tiebreaker department with Atlanta (6-2). Remaining schedule: at Seahawks, at Vikings, vs. Seahawks, vs. Patriots, at Panthers, at Rams, vs. 49ers

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-5), NFC South leaders: A season sweep of the Bucs effectively gives Atlanta a three-game lead in the division. The Falcons have no such edge on the suddenly surging Saints. Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Chargers, at Vikings, at Raiders, vs. Giants, at Commanders, vs. Panthers

5. Minnesota Vikings (8-2), wild card No. 1: They’ve won three in a row, all against AFC South competition, to maintain this spot – while staying a game back of Detroit in the NFC North. Remaining schedule: at Bears, vs. Cardinals, vs. Falcons, vs. Bears, at Seahawks, vs. Packers, at Lions

6. Green Bay Packers (7-3), wild card No. 2: They were fortunate to escape Chicago with a win … meaning they also remain relevant in the NFC North despite how dominant Detroit seems. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Dolphins, at Lions, at Seahawks, vs. Saints, at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (7-4), wild card No. 3: Thursday night’s loss to Philly hurts, costing Washington seeding for now, but should also be a learning experience. And the Commanders do seem to have an easier lineup than Philly to contend with the rest of the way, one that might keep them in contention for the NFC East throne. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Titans, BYE, at Saints, vs. Eagles, vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Los Angeles Rams (5-5), in the hunt: Wins over the 49ers and Seahawks give them a tenuous advantage among the conference’s currently .500 lot. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Saints, vs. Bills, at 49ers, at Jets, vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

9. Seattle Seahawks (5-5), in the hunt: They’re only 1-2 in the division, but that’s better than the Niners, whom Seattle just split its season series with. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Jets, at Cardinals, vs. Packers, vs. Vikings, at Bears, at Rams

10. San Francisco 49ers (5-5), in the hunt: They dropped to 1-3 in NFC West games, which pushed them down the conference table and could make it really tough to win the division if it continues to remain packed this tightly. Remaining schedule: at Packers, at Bills, vs. Bears, vs. Rams, at Dolphins, vs. Lions, at Cardinals

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-6), in the hunt: They actually made up a bit of ground on their week off. Now, if they can get key players like WR Mike Evans back, the opportunity is there to have a strong finishing kick. Remaining schedule: at Giants, at Panthers, vs. Raiders, at Chargers, at Cowboys, vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

12. Chicago Bears (4-6), in the hunt: A four-game skid suggests they might not be in the hunt much longer – especially given what they’re about to face. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings, at Lions, at 49ers, at Vikings, vs. Lions, vs. Seahawks, at Packers

13. New Orleans Saints (4-7), in the hunt: They’re 2-0 under interim HC Darren Rizzi. And given the way the NFC South is compressing … Remaining schedule: BYE, vs. Rams, at Giants, vs. Commanders, at Packers, vs. Raiders, at Buccaneers

14. Carolina Panthers (3-7), in the hunt: Hey, they’ve still got like a 1% shot to make the playoff field. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Cowboys, vs. Cardinals, at Buccaneers, at Falcons

15. Dallas Cowboys (3-7), in the hunt: Hey, they’ve still got like a 1% shot to make the playoff field following Monday’s latest embarrassing loss, their first of three games over an 11-day stretch. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Giants, vs. Bengals, at Panthers, vs. Buccaneers, at Eagles, vs. Commanders

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Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.