The Washington Commanders allowed the Dallas Cowboys to bury their chances of winning the NFC East with not one, but two kickoff return touchdowns in the fourth quarter of Sunday’s 34-26 loss.

A ho-hum divisional rivalry turned into a barn burner with 41 points scored in the final quarter between both teams, as the Cowboys broke their five-game losing skid while sending the Commanders to their third consecutive loss.

However, there’s still plenty of optimism for rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Killf Kingsbury during their first year together in Washington.

USA TODAY Sports’ NFL overreactions from Week 12 begin with the Commanders, who will still make the playoffs but are staring at an exit in the wild-card round.

The Commanders are in the seventh and final NFC playoff spot after Week 12, just ahead of the Arizona Cardinals (6-5) and trio of 5-6 teams in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers. They’ll face the Philadelphia Eagles and Cowboys again this season, and they’re good enough to beat the Tennessee Titans, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons left on their schedule to reach the postseason.

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But they’ll regret this Cowboys loss.

Any chance the Commanders had of winning the NFC East (and hosting a playoff game) evaporated with every touchdown the Cowboys scored late.

If the Detroit Lions hang onto the No. 1 seed and first-round bye, the Commanders could wind up facing the Eagles in the wild-card round of the playoffs.

While reaching the postseason would undoubtedly be an accomplishment for Washington, facing the likes of Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown and Saquan Barkley in the playoffs could be a bitter end for a transformational season.

Texans are suspect but will still reach postseason

While we’re handing out first-round playoff exits, the Houston Texans also appear as a team destined for an early postseason blunder.

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud stepped out of bounds for a safety, and threw two interceptions in Houston’s 32-27 loss to the Tennessee Titans on Sunday. It’s never great losing to a 2-8 (now 3-8) team. But Houston showed it’s deeply flawed heading into the final stretch of the season.

To make matters worse, the Texans have games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens within a four-day stretch during Christmas week that will ultimately decide their playoff fate.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins and Titans again on the schedule, the Texans must shore up their shortcomings to not only stay in the playoff mix, but make the most of this season with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins playing at high levels.

The Texans are still in great shape to win the NFC South, but they’ll likely wind up as the No. 4 seed in the playoffs. They’ll host the No. 5 seed, which could be the runner-up in the AFC North between the Pittsburgh Steelers or Ravens. And that would be a disappointing matchup for Houston in the postseason.

Just a matter of time before Giants regime is on the outs

Move over Robert Saleh and Joe Douglas. Brian Daboll and Joe Schoen could also be on a subway ride out of New York before the season is over.

While CBS Sports reported Giants owner John Mara will retain his coach, Daboll, and GM, Schoen, the Giants should cut ties with both after their latest 30-7 home loss to the Buccaneers on Sunday.

To make matters worse, the Giants face the Cowboys on Thanksgiving where another dreadful loss feels apparent.

Giants players have questioned leadership in recent weeks, including rookie receiver Malik Nabers after the Bucs game.

The Giants may have turned the page on former quarterback Daniel Jones, but Saquan Barkley’s resurgence in Philadelphia is a weekly stain on how Daboll and Schoen have set the franchise behind.

The Giants are in line for the No. 2 pick after Week 12, and should quickly join the market for coaches and general managers, like the Jets, and ensure they’re in play for the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft by season’s end.

INGLEWOOD, Calif. — The Philadelphia Eagles are flying high again after 12 weeks. They were in a similar position last season before going in a downward spiral. Is this year different?

Based on the way Saquon Barkley’s performing in his first season in Philly − it is.

“He’s a hell of a player… I know we’re fortunate to have him,” Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts said. “He’s playing his tail off, and he’s having fun… He added a new dimension for us.”

Barkley was the undisputed best player on the field during the Eagles’ 37-20 Sunday Night Football win over the Los Angeles Rams.

The versatile running back rushed for an astounding career-high 255 yards and two touchdowns. His 255 rushing yards set an Eagles franchise record and it’s the ninth highest single-game rushing total in NFL history. He produced 302 yards from scrimmage. He’s the 12th player in NFL history to top 300 yards, and the first Eagles player to achieve the mark, per NFL research. The Eagles had 481 total yards as a team.

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“When you have the type of quickness (and) lateral movement, that Saquon has, with the ability to accelerate and speed to finish, and the power to break through an arm tackle,” Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said. “He’s got everything you look for in a back. He’s been awesome and he was awesome tonight.”

Barkley had touchdown runs of 70 and 72 yards in the second half.

“He’ll find a seam and, you know, he just has that ability to do dynamic things,” Eagles right tackle Lane Johnson said to USA TODAY Sports. “I was proud of him.”

Barkley now leads the NFL with a career single-season high 1,392 rushing yards, and the Eagles still have six more regular season games left on their schedule.

“To be honest, I’m not surprised. I didn’t know I’d have this much success,” Barkley said postgame. “I keep thinking that God’s been blessing me a lot, a ton to be honest. I’m thankful to be here and thankful for the fresh start.”

Barkley’s “fresh start” in Philadelphia has been everything the Eagles hoped for when the team signed him over the offseason. He’s helped the Eagles notched their seventh straight victory and build a comfortable lead in the NFC East.

The Eagles were 10-1 after Week 12 last season and collapsed down the stretch, losing six of their last seven games, including a wild card playoff loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The collapse led to a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

Chemistry issues ultimately caused the Eagles’ 2023 downfall. The Eagles’ Week 13 blowout loss to the San Francisco 49ers in 2023 was the turning point that precipitated their downward spiral.  

The Eagles haven’t forgotten last year. They say they’ve learned from the past.

“You saw last year what not to do. Couldn’t adjust,” Johnson said. “Remember where we were last year. You know, it’s not to scare, it’s just to bring awareness and to not let complacency grow.”

The biggest change from last year, though, is Barkley. MVP chants rained down on the running back after his record-setting performance at SoFi Stadium. The Eagles are a tough team to beat with an MVP candidate in the backfield.

“I think this is the spot where I can kind of rewrite my story,” Barkley said. “I feel like I can show everyone the type of player I feel like I can be and was meant to be, and it’s working out right now.”

As the college football season winds down, there is really only one thing that we know for sure. No matter how all the various conference races turn out, and no matter what the playoff committee’s final decisions are regarding participants and seeding, not everyone is going to be happy.

Another slew of chaotic results over the weekend produced the usual plethora of snap judgments and quick takes. Once again, our aim here is to attempt to provide some big-picture perspective.

Here are the top five overreactions to a wild Week 13.

Playoff expansion saved college football

On the one hand, we have a lot more teams involved in meaningful games this late in the campaign. The counterargument is maybe that isn’t such a good thing, as this is shaping up to be a year that would have had a fairly clear-cut foursome under the old format. Is more actually better when there might not be 12 teams truly worthy of a shot at a national championship?

It depends upon one’s definition of worthy. We probably won’t be able to give a definitive answer to that until we see how those first-round and quarterfinal games unfold. We do know that a couple of blockbuster showdowns from the past weekend that could have been staged in a playoff setting turned out to be colossal disappointments. But having said that, we’ll try to deal with the worthiness question for the remainder of this piece.

UP AND DOWN: Winners and losers from Week 13 in college football

TIEBREAKERS: Where Power Four conference races stand after Week 13

The SEC’s week wasn’t all that bad

Overall, it was probably a net loss of a team from the at-large pool for the league with Alabama and Ole Miss excusing themselves from the discussion. Texas A&M’s status didn’t actually change, as the Aggies almost certainly needed to go the automatic route to a berth, and that path is still available despite the loss at Auburn.

The beneficiary looks like Tennessee, back among of the queue among the league’s at-large hopefuls. The Volunteers were, counterintuitively, both helped and hurt by Alabama’s loss, now unable to reach the SEC title game under any tiebreaker scenario but seemingly well positioned to sit out that week and prepare for a round-of-12 contest. All that goes out the window, of course, should they lose to in-state rival Vanderbilt. As we’ve seen, conference optimization is off the table once competitors take the field.

The ACC will get multiple bids after all

So the question becomes, will the SEC’s net loss of an at-large team really benefit the ACC, as this week’s polls would suggest? The answer to that is a definite maybe, as the league’s trio of candidates still have work to do. SMU will be favored in its home finale against bowl-eligible California, and Miami will likewise be expected to handle its visit to Syracuse. Neither outcome is guaranteed, however, and should either come up short they’d find themselves in the crowded mix with other power conference runners-up.

Then there’s Clemson, whose Palmetto showdown with South Carolina won’t affect its ACC standing unless a loss by Hurricanes puts the Tigers in the championship game. But a win would provide a final statement to be an at-large possibility. Suffice it to say there will be a lot of interested parties watching those contests next week.

Hoosier State reckoning?

The state of Indiana is on the cusp of producing a pair of 11-1 finishers, both of which can only be in the at-large pool. In this corner, we have Notre Dame, with some nice wins including one at Texas A&M but one really bad loss at home against a mid-tier MAC team. And in this corner, we have Indiana, which can at least claim a couple of wins now against bowl teams but didn’t threaten Ohio State after intermission.

It isn’t out of the question that those two could find themselves pitted against each other in the round of 12 if things fall a certain way. Far be it from us here at Overreaction HQ to ask the committee to manipulate their data to make this happen. But we’d all watch, wouldn’t we?

The Group of – 6?

The Big 12 is officially in what can best be described as an absolute mess. Though the league is unquestionably deeper than the top conferences of the so-called Group of Five, its eventual champion might nevertheless find itself lumped in with the winners of the American Athletic and Mountain West for that all-important bye into the quarterfinal round. There are way too many permutations to get into here, but there will be a lot of discussion of where all the candidates from those conferences land in the next couple sets of preliminary playoff rankings. Then again, perhaps expecting any kind of consistency from the committee is the biggest overreaction of them all.

The hot-stove season has been frigid once again, unless you’re fascinated by minor-league signings, the non-tender deadline and reports about free agent Juan Soto’s favorite dining spots in Southern California.

The biggest free-agent signing until Yusei Kikuchi’s three-year, $63 million deal Monday with the Los Angeles Angels was the two-year, $12 million contract for part-time catcher Travis d’Arnaud signed, also with the Angels.

The biggest trade was the Cincinnati Reds-Kanas City Royals swap of infielder Jonathan India and outfielder Joey Wiemer for pitcher Brady Singer.

But in conversations and interviews with general managers, executives and agents the past week, they are boldly predicting that the hot stove is about to become enflamed after Thanksgiving, with a flurry of trades, and marquee free agent signings filling the days and nights at the annual baseball winter meetings beginning Dec. 8 in Dallas.

“It’s not going to be like a year ago when the winter meetings were an embarrassment,’ one prominent agent said. “Nothing happened… This year is different. Everyone is much more aggressive, or at least they’re acting like it.’

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The same mantra is being repeated by teams and executives, saying that all but perhaps just the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins have playoff dreams dancing in their heads. But there’s a question they are all asking among themselves.

“Who has the money, and who doesn’t?’ one GM said. “Everyone is talking a big game, but no one really knows for sure. We’re about to find out.’

Now that Thanksgiving is around the corner, and the the winter meetings on the horizon: here are the top nine swirling topics of conversation:

1.  Juan Soto free agent sweepstakes

Owners and general managers are convinced that Soto will sign his mega-contract perhaps no later than the conclusion of the winter meetings. This won’t be a repeat case of 2019 when Bryce Harper and Manny Machado patiently waited until their markets blossomed in spring training, or last winter when the money that was there in December evaporated in February.

There really are only four teams that are seriously in play for Soto: The Mets, the Yankees, the Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox.

The Los Angeles Dodgers just won a World Series without Soto, and it wasn’t much of an inconvenience to drive through traffic across town, and meet with Soto and agent Scott Boras. The meeting helps perhaps drives the price up for Soto, and even more important, puts a little pressure on outfielder Teoscar Hernandez into re-signing with them.

Oh, and after all of speculation that the Philadelphia Phillies are involved in the Soto sweepstakes?

They haven’t had a single conversation with Boras to express interest in Soto.

The Mets are the clear-cut favorite, executives say, simply because they don’t believe there’s a soul who will outbid owner Steve Cohen, while Yankees have a price in mind that they don’t want to exceed.

The Blue Jays could be the sleeper, but with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette eligible for free agency in a year, Toronto would have to dramatically beat the Mets’ offer to have a prayer.

2. Boston Red Sox talk a big game

No one is boasting about their plans to suddenly spend money and dive into the deepest end of the free-agent waters more than Red Sox.

They have missed the playoffs three consecutive years, finishing last five times since 2014, and now are shouting to the world that they want to spend with the big boys, and plan to be involved in the bidding for all of the top free agents.

This is why they met with Soto, told everyone how well it went, and informed agents that they not only want to sign one of the marquee free-agent pitchers in Corbin Burnes, Max Fried and Blake Snell, but actually want to sign two. They are adamant on signing at least one lefty between Fried and Snell.

The Red Sox also have strong interest in All-Star free-agent shortstop Willy Adames, who is willing to move to third base. They have scheduled an upcoming meeting and have internally discussed moving Rafael Devers off third base. They could also sign free agent Alex Bregman or trade for St. Louis Cardinals All-Star third baseman Nolan Arenado.

They would love to free up even more money by dumping outfielder Masataka Yoshida, but are finding limited demand with the three years, $55.6 million left on his contract.

“They have been so outspoken about their intentions,’ one GM said, “there’s no way you talk that way unless you’re absolutely sure you’re signing one of those guys. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them announce they’ve got one of those guys pretty soon. They’re pretty confident.’

3. Rōki Sasaki rumors

Where else can you find an elite 23-year-old pitcher, whose sheer talent reminds scouts of a healthy Jacob deGrom, that will cost you no more than an international signing bonus?

The Dodgers have been the heavy favorites to land Sasaki for the past year, where teams are convinced it’s almost a fait accompli. But with Sasaki’s agent Joel Wolfe, vehemently denying there is a deal in place – and Sasaki expected to wait until after the Jan. 15 posting period – maybe someone else has an actual chance.

The team that is quietly confident they have a realistic shot is the San Diego Padres with veteran starter Yu Darvish being a mentor and close friend of Sasaki’s.

Does Sasaki go to San Diego where he could become their ace and perhaps lead the Padres to their first World Series title in franchise history, or head to the riches of Los Angeles where he might be only the third most popular Japanese player on the team behind Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto?

4. San Diego Padres desperate to win now

Say hello to the Padres. San Diego shaved $90 million off its payroll last season yet finished one victory away from beating the Dodgers in the NLDS to perhaps become the World Series favorite.

They have have to win this year or it could soon turn ugly in America’s Finest City.

The Padres, who shoved in most of their prospect chips to go for it last year, now are faced with massive player raises and two of their top starters entering the final year of their contracts.

Dylan Cease and Michael King each are free agents after this season, and with all of the club’s other bloated contracts, San Diego may have little chance to keep the pitchers.

They need a deep October run, if not a World Series appearance, to provide an extra influx of cash after maxing out their revenue in ticket sales and TV.

Here’s what they’re facing going forward:

Manny Machado: He has nine years, $334 million left on his contract, earning $13 million this year, $21 million in 2026, and then $35 million in 2027-2033.

Fernando Tatis: He has 10 years, $306 million left on his contract, earning $20 million this year, $20 million in 2026, $25 million in 2027-208, and $36 million in 2029-2034.

Xander Bogaerts: He has nine years, $225 million left, earning $25 million a year through 2033.

“That’s scary to think about,’ one executive said. “They’ve got some big-time financial commitments. That could get real ugly.’

5.  Chicago Cubs: Driving agents crazy

The Cubs, whose 2016-era championship window closed abruptly, are a cash cow with one of the largest markets in baseball. Yet, instead of negotiating with any of the marquee free agents, they instead are focusing on the mid-market players. They’re probably out on Soto, Burnes, Fried and Snell.

The only thing that could change their plan is if they’re able to unload first baseman/outfielder Cody Bellinger.

The worst-kept secret at the GM meetings was the Cubs offering Bellinger to anyone and everyone. So far, no team has expressed strong interest.

“Come on,’ one GM said, “who’s going to touch that contract? The risk is just too great for the production.’

Bellinger, 29, hit .266 with 18 homers and 78 RBI last season with a .751 OPS. The trouble is that he’s owed $27.5 million this year – $1.5 million more than Bryce Harper – and has a $25 million or $5 million buyout if he opts out of his 2026 contract. So, he’s guaranteed a minimum of $32.5 million through 2025 and $52.5 million if he stays through 2026.

If the Cubs are able to move Bellinger, they likely would have to eat money in the deal or assume another similar contract.

6. Philadelphia Phillies: Contender could shake things up

The Phillies, who have reached the postseason three consecutive years, and improved their win total in a full season six years in a row, realize that something needs to change to reach their ultimate goal of their first World Series title since 2008.

Simply, their lineup is too easy for opposing pitchers to navigate, and the Phillies need to shake it up.

They have been shopping outfielder Nick Castellanos for nearly two years and now are making third baseman Alec Bohm available.

They have spoken about Bohm and outfield prospect Justin Crawford in extensive trade talks with the Chicago White Sox for starter Garrett Crochet, but the White Sox are concerned with Bohm’s struggles the second half, posting a .681 OPS with just four home runs.

If the Phillies trade Bohm, they are expected to make a strong play for Alex Bregman, whose talent and personality would fit in perfectly with the team, or perhaps sign Willy Adames and move him over to third base.

The Phillies are starting to age with their best and highest-paid players in their 30s and catcher J.T. Realmuto in the final season of his five-year, $115.5 million contract.

7.   Luis Robert Jr.: Biggest gamble on the trade market

The White Sox will definitely trade ace Garrett Crochet this winter, but before they move him, they’d love to unload Robert.

Robert, 27, is a huge talent that prompted the White Sox to give him a six-year, $50 million contract five years ago, but he has never lived up to the hype.

He simply can’t stay healthy. Robert has played more than 100 games in just one of his five seasons, and now will be earning $15 million in sixth and final season.

Yet, if you gamble on Robert, and win, you’ll have the option of picking up his club option of $20 million in 2026 and again in 2027.

“The guy is certainly intriguing,’ one GM said, “but they’ve got a really high price tag on him. You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects.’

8. Toronto Blue Jays: Most likely to overpay

The Blue Jays, the American League’s most underachieving team in recent years, reaching the postseason three times but failing to win a playoff game since 2016, have to win this year or heads could roll.

This is a critical year with president Mark Shapiro in the final year of his contract, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette in the final year before free agency.

They will have no choice but to overpay free agents with players well aware that Guerrero and Bichette could be gone. This is why no one believes Soto is coming their way unless they dramatically outbid the Mets.

They will have to make easily the highest offer if they’re successful in landing in Burnes or Fried, along with outfielder Anthony Santander, whom they badly covet.

The danger is avoiding being used by agents simply to drive up the price tag – as the San Francisco Giants found out in in recent years.

9. MLB rumors: What I’m hearing

– If the New York Yankees don’t re-sign Juan Soto, one back-up plan floating around is signing free-agent first baseman Christian Walker, sign either Willy Adames or Alex Bregman to play third, shift Jazz Chisholm to second base, trade for Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger, and then use the extra money to sign Burnes, Fried or Snell.

– The Houston Astros would love to have Alex Bregman back on a six-year deal worth about $156 million, but Bregman is seeking a deal worth at least $200 million.

– The St. Louis Cardinals are planning to reload – but not completely rebuild – with Nolan Arenado the only high-priced player they are shopping. Arenado has three years, $52 million remaining in his contract, but the Colorado Rockies are responsible for $4 million each of the final three seasons.

– The Baltimore Orioles, after being bounced out of the playoffs in the first round the past two seasons, are being much more aggressive in talks with agents and clubs after their passive trade deadline approach in 2024.

– The Milwaukee Brewers plan to hang onto closer Devin Williams until at least the All-Star break and will re-evaluate whether to keep him or trade him.

– The (Sacramento) Athletics plan to spend money, increasing their payroll to about $100 million, keeping owners and the players association off their back with the revenue sharing money they receive.

– The Brewers would love to find a way to get former Cardinals All-Star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt on their roster, and would have been all-in if first baseman Rhys Hoskins had opted out of his contract.

– Teams have been appalled at the high price tag for the second-tier free-agent market, with players seeking at least $20 million a year for multiyear deals..

– The Arizona Diamondbacks are shopping starter Jordan Montgomery, and listening to offers on outfielders Jake McCarthy and Alek Thomas.

– Teams believe that the Reds’ payroll will rise considering their investment in manager Terry Francona.

– The Dodgers, who won the World Series with only three healthy starters, are pursuing at least one top-tiered free agent starter even with Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Clayton Kershaw all expected to join Yamamoto in the rotation this year.

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Boston College football coach Bill O’Brien had some choice words when speaking on the benching of his former quarterback Thomas Castellanos to CBS Sports Network’s Andrea Kremer.

O’Brien benched Castellanos for Grayson James prior to the Eagles’ Nov. 16 loss to SMU, which prompted Castellanos to enter the transfer portal. It was an interesting case study for college football in the transfer portal era, as many suggested Castellanos quit on his team, given his midseason exit as BC still chased bowl eligibility.

‘He brought in Castellanos and told him he’s making him second team, and to view it as an opportunity to sit back, learn, improve, work hard and be ready,’ Kremer said O’Brien told her. ‘Bill O’Brien said (Castellanos) didn’t like it and he left the team.

‘I then asked (O’Brien), does this typify the issue with players transferring, and he said, ‘99% of our guys are tough and smart, he was an outlier at BC.’

According to Kremer, O’Brien called Castellanos an outlier, claiming the former quarterback was not tough and smart, based on what Kremer shared on CBS Sports Network. Not a great sign for Boston College.

Before his benching, Castellanos was 99 of 161 passing (61.5%) for 1,366 yards with 18 touchdowns to five interceptions, along with 93 rushes for 194 yards with a touchdown. His rushing total took a severe hit in 2024, as he ran for 1,113 yards with 13 touchdowns in his first season as the starter in 2023.

Regardless, Castellanos will likely get another shot as a starting quarterback for a different school. However, it appears Castellanos just wasn’t the right fit for O’Brien in 2024, whether O’Brien was right or wrong about his animated assessment via Kremer.