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Republican presidential candidate and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had a number of stand-out moments during her appearance at an Iowa town hall hosted by CNN on Thursday.

Haley addressed how she plans to overtake former President Trump, the clear front-runner in the race for the Republican nomination, as well as addressing recent controversial statements she made on the campaign trail regarding slavery and the Iowa caucuses.

When asked how she planned to overtake Trump, who continues to hold a commanding lead in the polls despite Haley’s recent surge in New Hampshire and Iowa, the former South Carolina governor pointed to how many of the same polls indicate she would triumph in a one-on-one matchup with President Biden.

‘I defeat Biden by 17 points,’ Haley said, referencing one recent poll and noting it showed she would perform better than Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another Republican candidate, in a hypothetical November contest against Biden. ‘If you win by double digits, you go into Washington with a mandate… It is time to move past President Trump.’

Haley argued that ‘chaos follows’ Trump and that she would be the generational leader ‘that leaves negativity and baggage behind.’ However, she later defended her intention to pardon Trump should he be convicted of any crime, and said some of the prosecutions the former president is currently facing in Georgia, Washington, D.C. and New York were ‘politically motivated.’

‘I used to tell him he’s his own worst enemy,’ Haley said, after stating that Trump would ‘have to answer’ for some of the charges he faces, but without specifying which ones.

When asked about the worsening crisis at the southern border, Haley called Biden’s handling of the situation was ‘truly a dereliction of duty,’ and slammed his administration’s efforts to combat Republican Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s actions to secure his state from the masses of migrants attempting to cross the Rio Grande.

‘Are you kidding me?’ she said in reaction to Biden’s efforts to remove razor wire placed at the border to prevent passage. 

Haley added that a Haley administration would implement a national e-verify program to ensure businesses weren’t hiring illegal immigrants, defund sanctuary cities, ‘once and for all,’ reinstate the remain in Mexico policy implemented by Trump, and ‘catch and deport’ rather than ‘catch and release.’

She went on to praise Abbott’s bussing migrants to sanctuary cities, but avoided giving DeSantis credit for doing the same despite being directly asked. 

Haley was later asked about how she declined to mention slavery as the reason for sparking the Civil War during a town hall event last month. She reiterated that she made a mistake by not mentioning it.

She explained that, as a southerner, she looks past the issue of slavery and race because of its prevalence in southern history and how southerners are exposed to it from an early age, but that she still should have mentioned slavery first.

Continuing on the discussion of race, she touted her handling of the shooting of an unarmed Black man by a police officer in South Carolina in 2015 while she was governor, and noted that riots like those in Ferguson, Missouri that same year didn’t take place because of the relationship building she did with police and the community.

Haley also defended her recent comments on the Iowa caucuses that although the state ‘starts’ the nominating process, New Hampshire will ‘correct it.’ The suggestion lead to sharp criticism from her Republican opponents.

‘We banter against each other… It’s what we do,’ Haley said. ‘I think the problem in politics now is it’s too serious and too dramatic.’ 

‘I have been coming here for months… You are going to see me fight until the very end of the last day in Iowa,’ she said. ‘If I didn’t love Iowa, I wouldn’t keep coming to Iowa.’ 

Said added that she would probably joke about New Hampshire while in Iowa in the coming days.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

EXCLUSIVE: The Republican National Committee this week launched websites in all 50 states and in more than a dozen different languages to encourage and educate GOP voters on how to vote by mail and vote early, Fox News Digital has learned.

Republicans last year launched its ‘Bank Your Vote’ initiative, which focuses on pre-Election Day voting to build on absentee returns and early in-person voting. The effort is expected to ‘encourage, educate and activate Republican voters on when, where and how to lock in their votes as early as possible’ through in-person voting, absentee voting and ballot harvesting where legal.

This week, the RNC rolled out websites in all 50 states and in 16 languages to continue the RNC’s investment and outreach to minority communities. The languages include Arabic, Assyrian, Burmese, Chinese, Chinese (traditional), Hebrew, Hindi, Hmong, Japanese, Korean, Navajo, Portuguese, Spanish, Tagalog, Vietnamese and Yiddish.

RNC officials said the websites would not only inform voters but also help them to request a ballot online or by mail, register to vote, check their registration, find their early voting location or even to find their polling place on Election Day.

Officials said that as the election year progresses, additional features will be added to the websites to ’empower’ voters to ‘bank their vote.’

‘When Republicans vote early, we win. ‘Bank Your Vote’ will be instrumental in getting Republicans to vote early or by mail to beat Biden and secure Republican victories up and down the ballot,’ RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel told Fox News Digital. ‘Every candidate, campaign and committee now has the ability to educate, empower and turn out Republican voters early to victory.’

Last year, the RNC rolled out a video to promote the ‘Bank Your Vote’ effort, featuring endorsements from some 2024 GOP candidates, including former President Trump, who leads the Republican primary by a massive margin.

Meanwhile, Fox News Digital has learned that ahead of the primaries, the RNC has hired political staff in 15 battleground states, including important House and Senate states, which they have identified as New York, California and Montana.

The RNC’s political team is focusing on a ‘data-driven ground game to grow’ the party through voter registration efforts and minority outreach and to turn out Republican voters through door knocks, phone calls and volunteer recruitment.

Additionally, the RNC has Election Integrity directors in 15 states. The RNC established a full-time Election Integrity Department as a permanent part of the RNC’s infrastructure.

‘We will continue to file key lawsuits, hire in-state election integrity directors and counsels in our target states, and continue to recruit and train tens of thousands of poll watchers and poll workers,’ an RNC official told Fox News Digital.

The RNC is currently engaged in more than 70 lawsuits in 20 states across the country, with 42 of those lawsuits focusing on safeguarding mail voting.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Four members of an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia group — including a high-ranking Iraqi militia commander — were killed in a drone strike in Baghdad on Thursday, according to reports by The Associated Press and Reuters.

A U.S. official has confirmed to Fox News that the U.S. was responsible for the strike, which targeted an Iraqi militia leader in Baghdad who is believed responsible for attacks on U.S. forces.

The official says this was a precision strike on a vehicle and not a hit on a whole facility as other outlets have reported. The strike targeted a leader of the Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, an Iraqi Shi’ite military group, the U.S. official said. 

‘The United States is continuing to take action to protect our forces in Iraq and Syria by addressing the threats they face,’ a statement from the U.S. military official read. 

Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba has links to Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a coalition of militias that is nominally under the control of the Iraqi military.

The PMF announced in a statement that its deputy head of operations in Baghdad, Mushtaq Taleb al-Saidi, or ‘Abu Taqwa,’ had been killed in the strike, which was ‘as a result of brutal American aggression,’ according to the AP.

Six others were wounded in the strike, according to Reuters.

Iraqi military spokesman Yehia Rasool said in a statement that the Iraqi army ‘holds the International Coalition Forces responsible for this unprovoked attack on an Iraqi security body operating in accordance with the powers granted to it by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces.’

Fox News Digital requested comments from the State Department and the White House but did not immediately receive a response. 

Thursday’s strike comes amid mounting regional tensions fueled by the Israel-Hamas war and fears that it could spill over into surrounding countries. It also coincides with a push by Iraqi officials for U.S.-led coalition forces to leave the country.

On Tuesday, Iraqi forces shot down an armed drone over the Erbil Airport in northern Iraq, where U.S. and other international forces are stationed, according to a report.

U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been attacked at least 115 times since Oct. 17, according to U.S. defense officials. The Pentagon does not count attacks on U.S. warships at sea in this number.

Fox News’ Lawrence Richard, The Associated Press and Reuters contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

You can’t blame the market for taking a breather after nine positive weeks.

The first trading week in January ended lower, which may have concerned investors. It’s understandable how jittery investors are when you view the market’s reaction to the December jobs report. The jobs data came in better than expected, which sent ripples through Wall Street. Right after the data was reported, equity futures fell, and Treasury yields ticked higher.

However, investors overcame the shock after digesting the info and looking more closely at the data. And the lower-than-expected ISM number, plus factoring in two major strikes and their impact on the jobs numbers, calmed investors for a short while. Equities turned higher, and Treasury yields dropped. The market continued to seesaw between gains and losses throughout the trading day.

Don’t be surprised if the market exhibits similar behavior next week, as investors await December CPI data and the start of earnings season. This doesn’t happen till the end of the week, so expect more of the same until Thursday.  

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of an interest rate cut in the March Fed meeting is at 64%, lower than before today’s data was released. 2024 is a 50-50 year, with elections and the Fed’s interest rate. Elections are going to take place in several countries around the world. And with over half the world’s population heading to the polls this year, it’s bound to bring some volatility to the stock market.

From a seasonal perspective for the US market, the first quarter of an election year tends to be volatile. There’s a chance that stocks could sell off ahead of the elections, but generally trend higher after the elections. And while 2023 performed as expected, seasonally, it doesn’t mean you should sit back and expect your portfolio to grow at the end of the year. Keep a watch on the broader market.

Given the S&P 500 index ($SPX) has been trending higher, trading above its 50-month simple moving average and showing a relatively steep uptrend since 2022 (see chart below), a correction shouldn’t be worrisome until the index nosedives below critical support levels.

CHART 1. MONTHLY CHART OF S&P 500. The index has been trending higher since 2012 and, except for a few instances, staying above its 50-month simple moving average. A break below the blue dashed uptrend line could be the first indication of a reversal.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

We have seen a rotation in leadership from Technology to Financials and Health Care, two sectors that struggled last year. The hope of lower interest rates likely boosted the Financials, which have seen a sharp upside rally since early November. The Health Care sector saw a similar move as Financials, though it pulled back a bit on Friday.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR SPDR ETF (XLF). After yields started falling, the Financials started recovering and rallied strongly.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

But that doesn’t mean the Magnificent Seven will lose their status symbol. Although it closed off its high, Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) showed signs of recovering today. NVDA’s stock still has a strong chart, maintaining support of its 50-day SMA. If the stock continues to rally in 2024, it could pull the rest of the market with it, especially the other six stocks that closely follow behind. So don’t lose faith in the mega-cap tech stocks just yet.

CHART 3. NVIDIA STOCK IS STILL BULLISH. Don’t give up on the Magnificent Seven stocks; they could still rally higher.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It’s not out of reach for Treasury yields to fall lower, as the Fed is expected to lower rates. Lower interest rates could see growth stocks pull back, but how much lower are interest rates likely to go?

As long as the economy keeps chugging along, the expectations the market has priced in will probably hold. But that doesn’t mean interest rates will fall close to zero; more likely, they will pull back, and then probably settle at around the 3% level. A lot has to do with the balance between interest rates and economic growth.

On a closing note, small-cap stocks could show strength as rates fall. Keep an eye on a chart of the small caps vs. large caps in 2024, such as the one below of iShares Russell 2000 ETF vs. the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (IWM:SPY).

CHART 4. SMALL CAPS VS. LARGE CAPS. If the small caps start outperforming the large caps and trend higher, you may want to put more weight on small-cap stocks.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If there’s a clear rotation and investors gravitate toward small-cap stocks, it may be worth adding more weight to this asset class.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

$SPX up 0.18% at 4697.24, $INDU up 0.07% at 37,466.11; $COMPQ up 0.09% at 14524.07$VIX down 5.52% at 13.35Best performing sector for the week: Health CareWorst performing sector for the week: TechnologyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Affirm Holdings (AFRM); USX-US Steel Group (X); Coinbase Global (COIN); PDD Holdings (PDD); Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX)

On the Radar Next Week

December CPIDecember PPIEarnings season kicks off with Bank of America (BAC), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C), Delta Airlines (DAL), and more.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson kicks off the New Year by hooking you up with every chart you could ever need, and you don’t have to create a single one yourself! In just a couple of clicks, you can discover a huge collection of prebuilt, professionally designed charts – ready to roll, ready for you to start using on StockCharts. Plus, this video provides you with a bonus in our Historical Chart Gallery!

This video originally premiered on January 5, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of StockCharts in Focus at this link.

On this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, TG highlights the continuing market pullback that started right around the turn of the new year. This is very much expected, since the November/December run was so intense. Most tickers have become overextended and are in need of coming down to find and test support, so waiting for that process to unfold will be critical, as TG explains.

This video originally premiered on January 5, 2024. Click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes premiere weekly. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

Last week, Growth stocks came under selling pressure, with the Nasdaq falling over 3% amid sharp declines in most of the Magnificent Seven names. These weren’t the only 2023 darlings that pulled back, as Semiconductor and Software stocks also underperformed. In turn, the Technology sector was the worst-performing for the week, with a 4.2% drop.

As you can see in the chart below, the Nasdaq posted a negative RSI on its daily chart last week, which is an event that also occurred 3 times last year, as highlighted. When coupled with a close below its 21-day moving average as marked by the rectangular boxes, further selling took place.

Daily Chart of Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)

While it’s unclear how much lower the Nasdaq may go, keeping your eye on interest rates will certainly be key. Similar to those periods of weakness last year, rates are ticking higher, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury now back above 4%. Growth stocks fare poorly in a rising rate environment. You’ll also want to examine the characteristics that marked the early November bottom in the Nasdaq, as this Index went on to regain its uptrend into year-end.

Also notable last week was a pronounced move into Value stocks led by Financials and Healthcare, which both outperformed. Next week, we’ll see clues into the fundamental state of Financials, with notable Bank stocks such as JP Morgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC) and Wells Fargo (WFC) due to report their 4th quarter results. Management’s guidance regarding growth prospects for this year will be equally important. Each of these companies has a bullish chart heading into their results.

While pullbacks can be painful, during a bull market phase such as now, they allow strong areas of the market to set up for another leg up. Subscribers to my MEM Edge Report were advised to stay with most of the Growth stocks on the report’s suggested holdings list when we issued our Midweek Report on Wednesday. My weekly report on Sunday will provide further insights into the broader markets, as well as industry groups and select stocks. You can use this link here to gain immediate access as well as a 4-week trial, all at a very nominal fee.

Happy New Year!

Mary Ellen McGonagle

On inflation

I like this quote-

“Goods deflation likely transitory as downward pressure on goods demand and input costs are fading. 1H24 global core inflation likely to settle near 3%, which won’t resolve the immaculate disinflation debate.”

And this quote does not include the steep rise in shipping costs of late.

Note the move in costs as of early December was at yearly lows. One month later, the costs are at yearly highs.

Super cycles don’t just fade away; they cycle with volatility and passion, just like the word super suggests. 40% up or down price moves in commodity related instruments is not unusual, and very much like we saw in the 1970s.

Commodities will flatline when inflation is over, just like they did for so years before 2020, We do not expect that to happen until mid-2025 to early 2026.

The issues for sticky inflation:

It’s globalThere are still shortages of basic raw materialsDemand not as weak as folks thoughtGeopoliticsWeather concernsFED might not lower rates, but they won’t raise them either. Furthermore, so far, many commodities are not concerned with the dollar or rates — any misstep by the Fed can send commodity pricing soaringRecent job and ISM reports are deceptive. There were significant drops in employment and new orders, while prices paid remain quite elevated showing that inflation remains sticky. Wages rose in December and are now back over 4%. Part of the strong labor numbers posted Friday is because the government hiring went up 5.2% this year

Disclaimer: There are no guarantees and of course, our Year of the Dragon might avoid any trips to Hell. But in case:

How will we know when inflation returns?

This could happen if:

Dollar does something more dramatic.Silver starts to outperform gold.Sugar (perfect example of a super cycle type volatility) heads back over 22 cents

We expect the next wave to occur in late spring/summer 2024.

Looking at the sugar chart of the March contract, in March 2021 sugar traded at $.15.5 a pound. (In 2020, the price was $.06 a pound.) Since then, sugar spent most of late 2021 and most of 2022 consolidating. Then in February 2023, it took off, finally peaking at $.28 in November 2023.

That dramatic drop is exactly my point. This is what happened in the mid to late 1970s.

Sugar is still 4 times higher in price than in 2020. Should we see this return over the 200-daily moving average (green line) or over $.22, I would think that my favorite barometer is telling us something — at least, something about becoming too complacent in a world full of powder kegs.

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“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Follow Mish on X @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish and Maggie Lake discuss inflation (given the wage component in the payroll report), Bitcoin (given the looming deadline for ETF news), the market outlook, small caps, and emerging markets on this video from Real Vision.

Mish covers war, energy, food and a pick of the day on Business First AM.

On the Tuesday, January 2 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar, Mish (starting at 22:21) talks small caps, retail, junk, and why all three matter in 2024 a lot.

In this appearance on BNN Bloomberg, Mish talks a particularly interesting chart, plus other places to invest in 2024.

In this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne, Mish talks with Cheryl Casone about Bitcoin’s volatility and why EVs may not be such a great place to invest in right now.

Recorded on December 28, Mish talks about themes for 2024 to look for, and tells you where to focus, what to buy, and what to avoid depending on economic and market conditions on Singapore Breakfast Bites.

Mish sits down with 2 other market experts to help you prepare for 2024 with predictions, picks, and technical analysis in StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward special.

Recorded December 27, Mish gives you a quick snippet of the overall macro prediction for 2024 on The Street with J.D. Durkin.

Coming Up:

January 22: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

January 24: Yahoo! Finance

Weekly: Business First AM, CMC Markets

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 480 all-time highs, 460 underlying support.Russell 2000 (IWM): 195 pivotal, 180 major support.Dow (DIA): Needs to hold 370.Nasdaq (QQQ): 390 major support with 408 resistance.Regional banks (KRE): 47 support, 55 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): 160 major support and 170 now resistance to clear.Transportation (IYT): Needs to hold 250.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 pivotal support.Retail (XRT): 70 now key and pivotal.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

S&P 500 earnings are in for 2023 Q3, and here is our valuation analysis.

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2024 Q3. Technically speaking, note that the value range has a negative divergence versus price.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through September 2024. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of December 29, 2023. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E is outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2024 Q2.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still very overvalued and the P/E is still above the normal range. Earnings have ticked up, are trending up, and are estimated to be higher for the next four quarters. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

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Bear Market Rules

PORTLAND, Ore. (AP) — Don Read, the former Montana football coach who retired after leading the Grizzlies to their first national title in 1995, died Wednesday, four days before the school plays for a third national title. He was 90.

Read’s son, Bruce, confirmed his father’s death to The Oregonian while not disclosing a cause.

“He was a great person who touched many hearts and lives in a positive way,” said Bruce Read, an assistant coach at Lewis & Clark College in Portland. “I can’t tell you how many people have reached out.”

Montana plays defending champion South Dakota State on Sunday in Frisco, Texas, for the FCS championship.

Read was Oregon’s head coach for three seasons, going 9-24 from 1974-76, and had two stints at Portland State (1968-71 and 1981-85) and also coached Oregon Tech (1977-80) before taking over at Montana for the 1986 season.

Read quickly built Montana into a Football Championship Subdivision powerhouse, running an exciting, pass-first offense. Montana drew capacity crowds to Washington-Grizzly Stadium, which opened in Read’s first season. Under Read, Montana was 85-36, won two Big Sky titles, never had a losing season and won all 10 of its games against rival Montana State.

“He was a great guy and great coach and he really got things going here,” Robin Selvig, Montana’s women’s basketball coach for 38 seasons, told 406mtsports.com. “He was really nice and obviously he had some exciting football to watch, the way they played.’

Read was the Division I-AA national coach of the year in 1995, when the Grizzlies — behind star quarterback Dave Dickenson — kicked a field goal with 39 seconds remaining to beat favored Marshall 22-20 in the title game of what is now known as the FCS.

Read’s 10-year tenure began a streak of 25 winning seasons for Montana football.

“He was authentic and cared more than the average person,” Dickenson, now the coach of the Canadian Football League’s Calgary Stampeders told 406mtsports.com. “He was very positive. To him, we were an extension of his family. The point of Don Read is that it wasn’t about the stars. It wasn’t about anything more than the team.”

Read wrote a book on quarterback development, “Complete Quarterbacking,” that was published in 2002. He was inducted into the Grizzly Sports Hall of Fame in 1998 and served as the university’s athletic director from May 2004 through July 2005.

Read was born Dec. 15, 1933, in Los Angeles. He played college football at Sacramento State.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY