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In a trade that alleviates a financial burden for one club while extending roster flexibility to another, the San Francisco Giants acquired left-hander Robbie Ray from the Seattle Mariners on Friday in exchange for right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani, outfielder Mitch Haniger and cash.

With the Giants striking out in pursuit of nine-figure free agents Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, dealing for Ray gives them a former Cy Young Award winner who is recovering from Tommy John surgery in May 2023.

While Ray, 32, entering the third year of a five-year, $115 million contract, won’t be ready for a full campaign until 2025, dealing Haniger and DeSclafani opens up other, more current avenues.

Haniger, 33, returns to Seattle where he spent five seasons and made one All-Star team before health woes curtailed the end of his stint. After failing to land Aaron Judge one winter ago, the Giants gave him a two-year, $28 million deal, but injuries limited him to just 61 games.

Now, dealing Haniger and DeSclafani – entering the final season of a three-year, $36 million pact – gives the Giants flexibility to take one more crack at a free agent market that still includes All-Star outfielder Cody Bellinger and reigning Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell.

HOT STOVE UPDATES: MLB free agency: Ranking and tracking the top players available.

In a sense, the trade partially corrects two wrongs under baseball operations president Farhan Zaidi. He let former ace Kevin Gausman walk to the Toronto Blue Jays for a five-year, $110 million deal after the 2021 season – nearly the identical deal Ray signed with Seattle that winter.

Zaidi never adequately replaced Gausman and exacerbated the Giants’ plunge with mid-range deals like the ones bestowed upon DeSclafani and Haniger. Now, both are gone and Ray at least offers the hope that he may regain much of the form with which he struck out a major league-high 248 batters in 193 innings in 2021.

Ray, baseball operations president Jerry Dipoto esitmated in October, should be ready to return by the 2024 All-Star break.

For the Mariners, the deal marks another grim turn in their fortunes – quite literally.

The club is anticipating reduced revenue from local television revenue with their regional sports network getting moved to a higher cable tier that is expected to cost them thousands of subscribers and likely millions of dollars in revenue.

Haniger was with the Mariners from 2017-2022, earning an All-Star nod in 2018 and then had career-highs of 39 home runs and 100 RBI in 2021.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) — Mario Zagallo, who reached the World Cup final a record five times, winning four, as a player and then a coach with Brazil, has died. He was 92.

The first person to win the World Cup both as a player and a manager, Zagallo is for many Brazilian soccer fans a synonym of patriotism, grit and glory.

Brazilian soccer confederation president Ednaldo Rodrigues said in a statement in the early hours of Saturday confirming Zagallo’s death that Zagallo “is one of the biggest legends” of the sport.

“We offer solidarity to his family members and fans in this moment of grief for the departure of this great hero of our soccer,” Rodrigues said. Several Brazilian clubs where Zagallo played and coached also expressed their sorrow for his death.

Zagallo’s social media channels called him “a dedicated father, a loving grandfather, a caring father-in-law, a loyal friend, a victorious professional and a great human being.”

“A gigantic hero. A patriot that leaves us a legacy of great achievements,” the text added, without giving more details about Zagallo’s death.

One of the most charismatic and superstitious figures in Brazilian football, he also was known for his fondness of the No. 13 and constant use of the phrase “You will have to put up with me” — voiced loudly at critics.

He said 13 was his lucky number because it carries the last two digits of his birth year: 1931. He always highlighted any link, however coincidental, between 13 and his football successes.

Zagallo played a role in nearly every major chapter in Brazilian football history, from its first World Cup title in 1958 to the tournament it hosted in 2014. Former Brazil coach Tite visited him to hear his advice before taking the team to the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

He was Brazil’s forward when it won the World Cup in 1958 in Sweden and 1962 in Chile, and one of the first players to act as a false winger, playing between midfielders and strikers.

Zagallo stopped playing professionally in 1965 and began his coaching career with Rio de Janeiro club Botafogo the following year.

Named national team coach in 1970, just before the World Cup in Mexico, he inherited a squad that included Pelé, Jairzinho, Gerson, Roberto Rivellino and Tostão. Brazil crushed Italy 4-1 in the final, becoming the first three-time champion.

He also coached Brazil in 1974, but without Pelé, the team finished in fourth place.

Zagallo was assistant coach to Carlos Alberto Parreira when Brazil won the 1994 World Cup in the United States, again beating Italy in the final.

And he was back at the helm four years later for the World Cup in France, when Brazil lost 3-0 to the hosts in a final marked by striker Ronaldo’s unexplained convulsions before the game. Zagallo was criticized for letting Ronaldo play.

“He was cleared to play by the doctors,” Zagallo said. “Anyone in my position would have done the same thing. I wasn’t going to be the one keeping him from playing in a World Cup final.”

His final coaching role with the national team was as Parreira’s assistant in 2006. Brazil was a pre-tournament favorite to win its sixth World Cup title in Germany. But the squad led by Ronaldinho, Kaká, Ronaldo and Adriano fell to France in the quarterfinals.

Zagallo was one of the few coaches who had successful coaching stints with all four traditional Rio clubs — Flamengo, Fluminense, Botafogo and Vasco da Gama.

He began his career as a striker with Rio’s America and later also played for Flamengo and Botafogo, one of the few Brazilian clubs which rivaled Pele’s Santos in the 1960s.

Zagallo was hospitalized for more than a month in 2005 after undergoing stomach surgery.

Four years earlier he was placed under medical care for an irregular heartbeat while coaching Flamengo.

He spent 12 days in a hospital just before the 2014 World Cup because of a back infection, released just in time to watch the opening match. He served in an ambassadorial role for that tournament.

Zagallo was hospitalized for 22 days in August of last year due to a urinary infection. Upon his return to his home in Rio, he was filmed in a wheelchair.

“We are stronger than ever!,” he said then in a posting on his social media channels, which ended in his career motto. “You will have to put up with me!”

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

The Detroit Lions upset the Kansas City Chiefs in the season opener. Aaron Rodgers’ season ended just four snaps into his Jets debut. It was clear that the 2023-24 season wouldn’t be what we expected.

From Week 1 to Week 18, USA TODAY’s power rankings track the ups and downs of the NFL’s 32 teams. As the final week of season opens Saturday, it’s interesting to look back at how the landscape has shifted since September.

How each NFL team’s power ranking has changed this season

The lines in the chart below show USA TODAY’s highest and lowest power rankings for each team this season.

Which teams surprised and which didn’t

On average, each team’s power ranking swung about 14 spots this season. Our opinions of a couple top teams were little changed after the first 16 games, while a handful of others swung wildly.

Teams that changed the least: The San Francisco 49ers shifted just four slots on their way to a 12-4 record and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Chiefs haven’t been as dominant this season. But they fell just a few slots and claimed the AFC West again with 10 wins.

Teams that changed the most: Quarterback injuries toppled expectations for both the Jets and the Cincinnati Bengals. Our rankings put them among the top six as the season opened. Both are in the bottom third now. That’s where rookie QB C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans started the season. They’re now eighth in our rankings with a 9-7 record and in the hunt this weekend for a playoff berth.

Which teams had the wildest rides

The highs and lows of some teams’ seasons can be better appreciated by looking at their actual ups and downs. The Los Angeles Rams maybe the best example. Expectations were low for the Rams after they struggled last season. This season, they found a winding path up our power rankings on their way to a 9-7 record and another playoff run.

When Week 18’s games are scheduled

Compare NFL power rankings for Week 18 and rest of 2023 season

Click on a logo below to see the changes in a single team’s power ranking this season. Click on additional logos to see how they compare.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Survey the NBA landscape, and there are teams who need to make a move ahead of the Feb. 8 trade deadline.

Sometimes those moves are for the short term and sometimes for the long term.

There are teams that are buyers and teams that are sellers.

And there are teams like the Oklahoma City Thunder that are in a fortunate position: they have the ability to buy and sell at the trade deadline.

Earlier this week, we took a look at players who could be on the move. Now, let’s take a look at teams that could be buyers and sellers ahead of the NBA trade deadline:

NBA trade deadline buyers

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have a great starting five (No. 2 offense and No. 2 net rating for the starters) and an OK bench (No. 3 net rating), but they could use depth, especially in the frontcourt. They have first-round draft picks to offer, if necessary, and president of basketball operations Brad Stevens has proven himself an aggressive front-office executive. Now, the Celtics are already headed for a luxury tax payment. Are they willing to pay a bigger bill if that gets them closer to a title?

Philadelphia 76ers

This will be an interesting trade deadline for the Sixers who are getting another MVP-type season from Joel Embiid and All-Star play from Tyrese Maxey. Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey has decisions: make a move at the trade deadline with limited draft assets or ride it out with this group that is third in the East (just behind Milwaukee and Boston) and use Philadelphia’s significant salary cap space to bring in another All-Star-level player.

Miami Heat

The Heat’s organizational mantra is “We have enough.” But do they? This is a franchise that wants to win titles and looks for ways to improve the roster. But one thing to consider: the Heat, in general, are not a team that makes trade deadline deals, especially major ones. Their last significant trade at the deadline came in 2021.

Orlando Magic

The Magic are a young team on the rise and do not need to make drastic moves given their roster and trajectory. There’s no need to give up too much, especially first-round picks, right now. However, if they can find some shooting – they’re among the worst 3-point shooting teams in the league – at a decent price, they should go for it.

Sacramento Kings

The Kings are on the lookout for a roster upgrade, potentially another scorer (or solid two-way player) to go alongside De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Their 2024 first-round pick belongs to Atlanta (top-14 protected). At 20-13 and four games behind first place in the West, the Kings’ front office, led by Monte McNair, wants to be aggressive without being reckless.

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are close to being a really good team. But how good? They are in the middle of a nice stretch – 7-3 in their past 10 games, including four consecutive victories – and have moved into a tie with the Kings for fifth place, just a game behind the Los Angeles Clippers. The Pelicans have multiple first-round picks to trade, too, including the Los Angeles Lakers 2024 first-round pick. New Orleans is in position to make a move.

Denver Nuggets

If the Nuggets make moves before the deadline, they likely will be aimed at adding depth. Unless they’re packaging a big deal with players on the roster, the Nuggets don’t have the draft assets to make a blockbuster trade. And, the defending champions don’t need to with Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.

Dallas Mavericks

Health is a factor for the Mavericks who are on the lookout for defensive improvement. But Dallas also does not have significant draft assets to send in a big deal.

Los Angeles Lakers

NBA trade deadline sellers

Golden State Warriors

Is is time for the Golden State Warriors to move on from their dynasty? They are 16-18 and not a contender. Or do they wait and see what happens when Draymond Green returns from his suspension? Regardless, they have a $400 million payroll, which includes nearly $200 million in luxury taxes, and no owner wants to pay that much for a team that might not make the playoffs.

Chicago Bulls

At 15-21 and any kind of deep postseason run unlikely, the Bulls have players who could be moved at the deadline in exchange for draft picks. The Bulls tried a rebuild on the fly, but an injury to Lonzo Ball didn’t help and the Bulls don’t have much to show for getting Ball, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine and Alex Caruso. A roster reset might be the answer.

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets just ended an 11-game losing streak. They have players who could help other teams and should take advantage of that. Charlotte desperately needs more talent.

Washington Wizards

This looks like a long-term rebuild for the Wizards, and outside of Bilal Coulibaly, the No. 7 pick in the 2023 draft, no player on the roster should be untradeable. Oklahoma City executive vice president Sam Presti’s theory is to get as many first-round picks as possible with the idea that a couple of the right picks will elevate a team into contention. Wizards president Michael Winger and GM Will Dawkins both worked with Presti in Oklahoma City. They know the strategy.

Detroit Pistons

Like the Hornets, the Pistons should be trying to accumulate first-round picks. Pistons GM Troy Weaver worked for Presti in Oklahoma City.

NBA trade deadline buyers and sellers

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are in a fantastic place at 23-10. They have a great young core featuring MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the possibility of 15 first-round picks over the next seven years. The Thunder don’t have to make a trade now but they have the assets to do so. At some point – maybe not this season – Presti will make a deal.

Toronto Raptors

It appears the Raptors are trying to retool on the fly, evidenced by their deal that sent OG Anunoby, Precious Achiuwa and Malachi Flynn to New York for RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley and a second-round pick. If they can return an All-Star caliber player for soon-to-be free agent Pascal Siakam, it won’t be a surprise.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz got off to a slow start but have shown improvement, inching up the standings and putting themselves in play-in contention – just a game behind the Lakers for 10th place in the West. In terms of draft picks, the Jazz are right there with the Thunder with future first-round picks. The Jazz are holding approximately 15 first-round picks through the 2030 draft. You can be sure Jazz CEO Danny Ainge and GM Justin Zanik are plotting their next big moves.

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

It would be like playing the Super Bowl at Churchill Downs.

The Stanley Cup Finals at Fenway Park.

Running the Indianapolis 500 in the old Boston Garden.

The 2024 presidential campaign likely won’t unfold in all the old familiar places.

The presidential proving ground for former President Trump may be in various courthouses, ranging from New York to Atlanta.

But House Republicans hope the presidential validation field for President Biden in 2024 is in the halls of Congress.

House Republicans didn’t accomplish much in 2023. But in mid-December, House GOPers finally conjured up the votes to formalize an impeachment inquiry into President Biden. That dynamic — emerging in an election year — could expose whether voters buy the GOP narrative that Mr. Biden, Hunter Biden and his family have something to hide about overseas business entanglements and financial dealings.

Or, the maneuver could reveal whether Republicans came up with blanks.

There is also the risk that voters believe the GOP is just engineering a not-so-shadow campaign to knife President Biden politically in 2024.

Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., began inching toward a House impeachment inquiry in late June and early July. But McCarthy never had the votes to officially launch an inquiry. And we all know what happened to McCarthy.

There were two camps of Republicans in the House when it came to impeachment. Not so much on whether the House should impeach Mr. Biden, but on how long an impeachment investigation should take.

One cohort of GOPers argued last summer they could wrap up the investigation soon and determine by fall whether they should impeach President Biden. They fretted about dragging things out into an election year. The other group didn’t set a timetable. Lawmakers appeared determined to let any inquiry run its course. 

And so, here we are in 2024 — a presidential election year. Republicans burned valuable time through 2023 fighting over who should be Speaker of the House and potential rendezvous with government shutdowns and the debt ceiling. So is there any surprise impeachment drifted into 2024?

And therein lies possible trouble.

Of course, any impeachment investigation is dangerous for a sitting president. But historically, it has been just as dangerous for the party undertaking the impeachment investigation.

Consider for a moment: what political benefit has any party ever reaped from an impeachment? Ever? And that includes the impeachment of President Andrew Johnson.

What do Democrats have to show with their two impeachments of former President Trump? Few consequences. Mr. Trump roared back stronger than ever after the Capitol riot and is the presumptive Republican nominee.

CONGRESS’ FIGHT OVER IMMIGRATION REFORM COULD LAST A WHILE

What did House Republicans get from their impeachment of former President Clinton in 1998? Well, Republicans almost lost control of the House. And the Republicans of 1998 churned through two House Speakers. The Clinton impeachment signaled the end for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga. Gingrich’s intended successor — former Rep. Bob Livingston, R-La., never became Speaker. It was revealed the night before the House impeached former President Clinton for deeds related to his affair with Monica Lewinsky that Livingston had also had an affair. So Livingston stepped aside.

This is why impeachments are risky. They often backfire. And while there’s a lot of turmoil, they don’t shift the political landscape.

‘Without evidence, you simply cannot persuade those suburban voters who will sometimes vote Republican and sometimes vote Democratic, that the Republicans are doing the right thing in the House,’ said University of Mary Washington political scientist Stephen Farnsworth. ‘As much as the far right conservatives in the safe seats are going to want this impeachment inquiry to move forward, the reality is that doing so may very well cost the Republicans their majority.’

We have no idea how or if House Republicans will actually impeach President Biden.

It’s about the math.

Republicans begin 2024 with a 220-213 advantage in the House. The already meager GOP majority could dwindle further. Republicans cannot lose more than three votes on any roll call and still pass something without assistance from the other side. 

Rep. Bill Johnson, R-Ohio, will resign in mid-January. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., is out until February recovering from cancer treatment. That means that in late January, Republicans effectively will have 218 operational votes in a 432-member House. They can lose two votes on any given roll call. Otherwise, the Democrats will prevail.

So, it’s unclear if Republicans will ever have the votes to impeach President Biden.

That presents the worst case scenario for the GOP.

Here are three problems:

If Republicans fail to impeach President Biden, the conservative base will be apoplectic.

That’s because Republicans have talked and talked about impeachment since President Biden took office. They potentially raised the bar and failed to deliver. Their voters could turn tail on them.

Then you have this mid-December impeachment inquiry vote. The average voter doesn’t follow the grand details of ‘impeachment’ and the difference between an inquiry and actually impeaching the president. But all House Republicans — including those from battleground districts or the 18 districts President Biden won — are on the hook. That vote alone could be enough to torpedo many of those Republicans in the general election, regardless of how they try to finesse it.

Finally, imagine Republicans not impeaching President Biden, but keeping impeachment on the table with regular hearings and days of closed-door depositions. The public wonders why Republicans are dithering. Their base is displeased that they didn’t impeach the President. Skeptics ask what Republicans are spending all of their time on.

It could be a lose-lose-lose scenario.

Never mind that Republicans run headlong into a legislative jumble later this month and February with possible government shutdowns. And utterly nothing is figured out about securing the border despite weeks of talks. That hamstrings the release of potential aid to Ukraine and Israel. Republicans linked President Biden’s international assistance package to border security. That may work politically. But now it’s looking like it’s imperiling any way to get Ukraine and Israel the money they need.

This is why Republicans are now teeing up a potential impeachment inquiry against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. And Republicans are planning to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress for skipping out on a subpoena for a deposition last month.

A contempt of Congress citation cuts two ways.

Republicans will wail that Hunter Biden didn’t comply with a subpoena. But McCarthy, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, Scott Perry, R-Penn., and Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., all defied subpoenas in 2022 from the House committee investigation the Capitol riot.

That said, it is hard for the House to enforce a subpoena against a sitting member from one of its committees.

However, watch to see if the Justice Department prosecutes Hunter Biden if the House holds him in contempt. The DoJ prosecuted former Trump aides Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro for not complying with subpoenas. If the DoJ doesn’t prosecute, Republicans will argue that the Biden Justice Department is shielding the President’s son. Former President Trump will assert that he’s getting unfair treatment facing prosecution from Special Counsel Jack Smith.

Yes. States like Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona and New Hampshire could determine who is president.

But the battlefield is in the halls of Congress and courtrooms across the nation.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS
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Former President Donald Trump is back in Iowa this weekend, picking up his pace on the campaign trail with just over a week to go until the state’s Jan. 15 caucuses kick off the Republican presidential nominating calendar.

His message to his supporters: ‘We don’t want to sit back and rely on the polls.’

The former president’s the frontrunner for the GOP nomination as he makes his third straight White House run.

Trump made history earlier this year as the first former or current president to be indicted for a crime, but his four indictments, including charges he tried to overturn his 2020 presidential election loss, have only fueled his support among Republican voters.

In the latest polls in Iowa, he stands at or above 50% support, miles ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who are battling for a distant second place.

‘We’re leading by 30 to 40 points,’ Trump has told supporters.

But Trump, who skipped out on the first four GOP presidential primary debates and who until recently kept a light schedule on the campaign trail in Iowa and the early voting states, isn’t sitting back on his large lead.

‘The poll numbers are scary because we’re leading by so much,’ Trump told supporters at a rally in Waterloo, Iowa, just before Christmas.

‘We can put this to bed after Iowa. We’ve got to be sure that we put this thing away. … You gotta show up. Even if you think we’re going to win by a lot. You gotta show up.’

The Trump campaign shifted into higher gear a few weeks ago, training close to 2,000 caucus captains in precincts across the state. 

‘Their sole job is to run each individual caucus that takes place and making sure that the list of the targeted voters supporting President Trump show up,’ Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita told Fox News last month.

The Trump campaign’s ground game operation in Iowa is leagues ahead of his 2016 effort, when he narrowly lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. 

‘Ted Cruz won in 2016 because his ground game was fantastic,’ Iowa GOP Chair Jeff Kaufmann, who remains neutral in the Republican nomination race, told Fox News.

And pointing to the 2024 Trump campaign, Kaufmann emphasized ‘their ground game has increased immensely.’

Trump and his campaign team are aiming for an overwhelming victory in Iowa as part of their plan to wrap up the nomination race as quickly as possible and pivot to a general election rematch with President Biden.

Their major concern is complacency.

Iowa Attorney General Brenna Bird, a top Trump surrogate, told Fox News that she is a ‘caucus captain myself in Guthrie County. I will be there at the caucus helping rally votes for President Trump on caucus night. We have to stay focused, and our people have to show up. The support is strong, it’s there, but we have to show up.’

Another concern for Trump and his campaign is making sure they match or beat expectations, which may be inflated due to his commanding lead in the polls in Iowa and in national surveys.

Trump, aware of the expectations he faces, took aim at a familiar target — the media.

‘If we win in a massive number, but if it’s a little bit less than that, they’ll say, ‘Oh, he didn’t beat expectations,” Trump told his supporters.

Longtime Republican strategist David Kochel told Fox News last month Trump is ‘driving his own expectations up. … It’s all expectations, and Trump’s are sky-high.’

‘If he’s under 50%, it’s a problem for him given his poll average now is well over 50,’ argued Kochel, a veteran of numerous GOP presidential campaigns nationally and in Iowa.

Seasoned Iowa-based Republican strategist Jimmy Centers said if Trump ‘wins by more than 20 points, and he’s over 50%, my goodness, this thing is over before it even begun.’

‘But if it’s under 15 points, then I think we have a race if the field consolidates,’ added Centers, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns and gubernatorial and congressional campaigns. He served as communications director for former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad and current Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Trump isn’t the only candidate battling expectations.

DeSantis, who’s staked his shot at the nomination on a strong showing in Iowa, has predicted a victory in the Hawkeye State.

‘We’re going to win here in Iowa,’ he told Fox News Digital on the campaign trail in the eastern part of the state the week before Christmas.

And he predicted the caucuses ‘will be very clarifying in terms of who is a real deal and who’s not. So, we look forward to that.’

Asked if he’ll move on to New Hampshire, which votes second in the GOP calendar, regardless of his finish in Iowa, DeSantis quickly said, ‘Of course. Yeah, absolutely. Of course.’

Centers told Fox News that ‘to march on to New Hampshire and make a strong case, Gov. DeSantis needs to finish in second place.’

Haley, who has enjoyed plenty of momentum in recent weeks, catching up to DeSantis in Iowa and in national polls and narrowing the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, has been careful to temper expectations.

Asked where she needs to finish in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley reiterated in a Fox News Digital interview this week that ‘I need to be strong in Iowa, strong in New Hampshire, strong in South Carolina. That’s what I intend to do.’

But Republican Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, Haley’s top surrogate, the next day appeared to raise expectations.

‘We know Trump is going to win the caucus in Iowa,’ Sununu said at a Haley campaign event in Londonderry, New Hampshire. ‘But, again, Nikki coming in second place when nobody thought it could happen, that’s going to happen and give her even more momentum.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Okay, I literally tried to think of the most bearish headline possible. To be clear, though, I’m actually still bullish on the long-term structure of this market. I’ve learned that when my Market Trend Model is bullish on the long-term and medium-term time frames, the primary trend is still positive. And that’s not a judgment call; that’s a fact based on the trend as defined by the weekly moving averages.

But just before the holidays, I found myself less and less able to ignore the extremely euphoric breadth readings, which tend to coincide with meaningful market tops. Not necessarily “the world is ending” type of tops, but definitely the “I probably want to wait to see how this plays out” sort of tops.

2024 has thus far started with a whimper for stocks, with growth sectors giving back some of the gains from December.

Should we be surprised by this initial downswing in the new year? And what warning signs should we be preparing for to anticipate a deeper and more sustained correction?

Seasonal Trends Suggest Weakness in Q1

The reality is that this initial weakness in January is actually quite common in an election year. Jeff Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, addressed this seasonal pattern recently on my show. And the seasonal charts on StockCharts tell the same concerning story.

If you look at the last five election years, you’ll find that the first quarter is actually the weakest three-month period. The S&P 500 is down an average of about 1% in each of the first three months of the year, and each month has finished lower in two out of the last five observations.

Your eyes may also be drawn to the month of October, which is almost always a down month with an average return of -4.3%! But we’ll get to that later this year. Going back to the current market, we find an important sell signal that was registered this week.

Key Short-Term Breadth Indicator Turned Bearish

The McClellan Oscillator looks at the changes in advance-decline data to create a momentum indicator for breadth, sort of an RSI for the market breadth. And this week’s price deterioration pushed this indicator below the zero level.

I’ve shaded the chart green when the McClellan Oscillator is above zero, and red when the indicator has moved below zero. Note the general trend in the S&P 500 index (bottom panel) during the green- and red-shaded areas, and you’ll see why this recent sell signal leaves me thinking that further downside may be in store.

So now we have a weak seasonal pattern based on the average election year, as well as the confirmation of breadth conditions beginning to turn lower. So what chart could help us confirm that this is not just a brief one-week pullback but something more potentially sinister?

Volatility May Bring Confirmation

When markets move higher, you tend to see lower volatility. This is because investors usually don’t completely freak out and then buy aggressively; they tend to accumulate positions over time. But when things turn lower, panic takes control and we hit the sell button aggressively to try and assuage our fears. That’s why volatility spikes in a down market, and that’s why the VIX may be a good chart to follow in January.

This week’s selloff saw the VIX go from just above 12 to just above 14 in just five trading sessions. We’re coming off the lowest levels in years, as the rally off the October low was a classic slow-and-steady, low-volatility uptrend. So if and when the VIX pushes above 14 or 15, that would most likely confirm that the seasonal tendencies for election years are playing out right before our eyes.

I love following seasonal tendencies and other cycles, as they can provide a “base case” for the markets based on what usually happens. But will 2024 follow that normal seasonal pattern? Further drops in breadth indicators would validate that thesis, and a spike in volatility would suggest that risk-off may be the best option for investors in Q1.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

Not a great start to the year! In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen takes a look at where the broader markets closed, and sees we’re hovering around some rather critical areas. The sharp pullback in growth stocks drove last week’s rotation into value stocks – what are the best ways to participate? Mary Ellen also shares with you the importance of digging into numbers, such as where employment expanded, and uncovering the impact it may have on that given area.

This video originally premiered January 5, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in in 2024, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks for the upcoming year, so you can make informed investment decisions. With this report, you’ll be sure to make the most of your investment opportunities in the new year!

The release of a limited-edition pink version of the viral 40-ounce Stanley Quencher drinking cup designed with Starbucks led to chaos at multiple Target locations nationwide Wednesday.

Social media clips show customers in a frenzy as they tried to snatch up the products, which were released as part of the rollout of Starbucks’ new winter menu. The cups retail for $49.95 and were being sold exclusively from Starbucks stores at Target locations.

A Starbucks spokesperson said in an email that there had been an ‘enthusiastic’ response to the product, and that they will not be restocked once they’re sold out.

Judging by the reaction on social media, that could happen soon. Already, they are being resold for hundreds of dollars on eBay.

A spokesperson for the privately owned Stanley did not respond to a request for comment.

Stanley Quenchers have soared in popularity in recent years, thanks to a total rethink of the product, which was first released in 2016. In particular, the appointment of Terence Riley, who helped lead the revival of footwear maker Crocs, as Stanley president in 2020 led to the company deciding to release Quenchers in new color palettes geared toward women.

That made them especially popular among Instagram users, resulting in supercharged sales. According to figures shared with CNBC, Stanley’s annual sales for 2023 are projected to top $750 million. 

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Federal student loan borrowers are confronting some challenges in restarting their payments since a pandemic-era pause ended in October.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said Friday that borrowers are dealing with inaccurate and untimely billing statements and delays in processing, among other issues.

“Borrowers are encountering long hold times when trying to reach their student loan servicer, experiencing significant delays in application processing times for income-driven repayment plans, and receiving inaccurate billing statements and disclosures,” the federal agency said.

The CFPB released the “issue spotlight” as part of its oversight of student loan practices since payments were restarted in October for more than 22 million borrowers. 

Federal student loan borrowers had a reprieve in payments for more than three years as a pandemic-era repayment pause was extended multiple times since it instated in March 2020.

More than 45 million borrowers collectively owe approximately $1.6 trillion, according to the Biden administration, which tried to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt for tens of millions of eligible borrowers. The Supreme Court killed the program in June. 

“The resumption of student loan payments means that borrowers are making billions of dollars of payments each month,” Rohit Chopra, the bureau’s director said in the statement. “If student loan companies are cutting corners or sidestepping the law, this can pose serious risks to individuals and the economy.”

One of the “key concerns” identified by the agency was long hold times and abandoned phone calls. 

The report found that borrowers were frequently forced to wait on hold for more than an hour with their loan servicers and many of them gave up without receiving assistance.

“Many servicers were able to boost their financial performance by dramatically reducing staffing during the pandemic. However, servicers have not met the foreseeable borrower demand for help with their loans,” the agency said.

Federal student loan borrowers have been receiving “faulty and confusing bills” from servicers, including errors such as premature due dates and inflated monthly amounts due to outdated poverty guidelines, the agency said.

The bureau also found there were significant delays in the processing of repayment plan applications. The agency found that millions of income-driven repayment plan applications were submitted between August and October and that, as of late October, servicers reported more than 1.25 million pending applications, with more than 450,000 applications pending for more than 30 days. Some servicers have taken five times longer than others to process applications, the bureau said.

On Friday, the Education Department said it was withholding payments from three student loan service providers as part of its “continued efforts to strengthen protections for student loan borrowers and hold servicers accountable.”

The administration found that Aidvantage, EdFinancial and Nelnet “all failed to meet contractual obligations” to send timely billing statements to 758,000 borrowers.

Because of those errors, the department said it was withholding payment of $2 million from Aidvantage, $161,000 from EdFinancial and $13,000 from Nelnet. The department said it directed the servicers to place affected borrowers into forbearance until the issues were resolved.

“Today’s actions make clear that the Biden-Harris Administration will not give student loan servicers a free pass for poor performance and missteps that jeopardize borrowers,” Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement.

“As millions of Americans return to repayment, the Department of Education will continue to engage in aggressive oversight of student loan servicers and put the interests of borrowers first. When unacceptable errors are uncovered, servicers should expect to be held accountable and borrowers should count on this administration to hold them harmless.”

Nelnet said in a statement to NBC News that fewer than .04% of its 14.5 million borrowers had missing or late statements, “including some borrowers who moved their own due date up to better meet their situation.”

‘While we are confident the number of borrowers with Nelnet-caused billing statement errors is less than the number released we do take seriously our responsibility to borrowers and regret any mistakes made during the extraordinary circumstances of return to repayment,” the loan servicer said.

EdFinancial declined to give a statement and instead referred to the Education Department for questions regarding its announcement.

Eileen Cassidy Rivera, a spokesperson for Maximus, the company that oversees Aidvantage, said in a statement that “Our goal in service to the Department of Education and nearly nine million borrowers is to provide excellent service that respects and protects the rights of borrowers.”

“Upon our identification of this issue, we took immediate action to rectify the error and prevent any risk of future occurrence,” Rivera said. “We take all our contractual obligations seriously and are transparent and accountable for our performance.”

In October, the Education Department withheld $7.2 million in payment from the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority, known as MOHELA “for its failure to send timely billing statements to 2.5 million borrowers.” At the time, the department also directed MOHELA to place affected borrowers into forbearance until the issue was resolved.

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