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Using Two Timeframes to Increase the Odds – Starting with the Strategic View

Chartists looking to increase their odds should consider two timeframes for their analysis. The longer timeframe sets the strategic tone, while the shorter timeframe defines the trading tactics. Strategically, I am interested in stocks with long-term uptrends. Tactically, I am looking for bullish continuation patterns to trade after a correction. Let’s look at an example using Northorp Grumman (NOC).   

The chart below shows weekly candlesticks extending back to summer 2021. NOC advanced from 350 to 550 (+60%) and hit a new high in October 2022. The stock then fell sharply at the beginning of 2023 and proceeded to drift lower into October 2023. Overall, a triangle of sorts took shape as the decline retraced around 61.8% of the prior advance. Also notice that NOC returned to the prior breakout zone. The retracement area and broken resistance created a support-reversal zone (red-green line). NOC broke out with a big surge in October (green arrows) and this move reversed the long-term downtrend.

The bottom window shows the percentage difference between the close and the 40-week SMA. The horizontal lines are at +5% and -5% to filter signals. A move above +5% signals an uptrend and remains until a move below -5%. Notice how the indicator moved below -5% in early 2023 and remained bearish until October 2023 when it surged above +5% (gray arrow). This indicator is also long-term bullish. This indicator is part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

With the long-term trend up and a breakout on the weekly chart, we can turn to the daily chart for tactical decisions. This section continues for TrendInvestorPro members. The Chart Trader offering at TrendInvestorPro provides broad market analysis and carefully curated trading setups for stocks and ETFs. We focus on bullish continuation patterns like the one above. Reports are published every Tuesday and Thursday before the open and each report includes a video. Click here to learn more.

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The Secret Sauce! Expert Investors Use This to Anticipate Market Moves

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson shows you how to dig deeper into the markets like a true veteran chartist and put price history to work for you using Seasonality Charts. These simple, yet powerful historical charts let you see past price performance data for any security, whether you’re following the indexes, digging into specific sectors, or researching an individual stock. By breaking down previous price history and bringing it into clear view, seasonality charts can help you contextualize what you’re seeing in the markets and anticipate future moves based on simple probabilities.

This video originally premiered on January 12, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of StockCharts in Focus at this link.

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Dramatic Bearish Bias Shift on Major Market Indexes This Week

(This is an excerpt from the subscriber-only DecisionPoint Alert on DecisionPoint.com)

This week, the markets experienced a dramatic bias shift. We measure the Intermediate-Term Bias using our Silver Cross Index (SCI). The SCI measures how many stocks within an index, sector, or industry group hold “silver crosses”, as in a 20-day EMA above the 50-day EMA.

When the SCI moves below its signal line, it shifts the Bias to BEARISH. This week, we saw every major market index we follow, with the exception of the Dow Industrials, move to Bearish Biases. We’ve also seen similar activity among the sectors and industry groups we follow.

To reiterate, the bias shift is due to a Silver Cross Index crossing down through its 10-day EMA, which means that some stocks within the given market index are experiencing 20/50-day EMA downside crossovers. When the 20-day EMA is below its 50-day EMA, the stock is, at the very least, in correction mode. The chart below is one that we use daily to track bias shifts. Clearly, most indexes still have a high percentage of stocks that still have a Silver Cross, but their bias is now bearish because of the shift below the moving average.

Conclusion: Based on the Silver Cross Indexes moving below their EMAs, we have new Bearish Biases on nearly every market index we follow. These Bear Shifts often precede longer declines. The weakness within these indexes implies a more concerted decline to follow.

Be sure to take advantage of our free trial if you want to know the Bias in all three timeframes daily. As a subscriber, you also have access to our exclusive ChartLists. Just use coupon code: DPTRIAL2 at checkout.

Learn more about DecisionPoint.com:

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Technical Analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. –Carl Swenlin

(c) Copyright 2024 DecisionPoint.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author, and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

DecisionPoint is not a registered investment advisor. Investment and trading decisions are solely your responsibility. DecisionPoint newsletters, blogs or website materials should NOT be interpreted as a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any security or to take any specific action.

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S&P 4300 by End of February?

We kicked off the new year of 2024 with an overheated stock market, excessively bullish breadth indicators, and euphoric sentiment levels. While the first week in January felt like a “wake-up call” pullback for awestruck bulls, this last week saw the S&P 500 push right back up to all-time highs.

On that note, leading growth names like META are making new all-time highs. But will the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 follow suit, or is this the last gasp higher in a double top pattern for the major market averages?

Today, we’re going to revisit a concept called “probabilistic analysis”, where we lay out four different potential scenarios for the S&P 500. There are three things I hope you take away from this exercise.

It’s important to have a thesis as to what you think will come next for stocks. This should be based on a meaningful combination of four key pillars: fundamental, technical, macroeconomic, and behavioral. And your portfolio should be positioned to reflect what you see as the most likely outcome.It’s also important to consider alternative scenarios. What if the market is way more bearish than you’d expect? What if some five-standard-deviation event pops up, and stocks suddenly shoot higher? The best way to break out of your predetermined biases is to actively consider alternative points of view. This exercise forces you to do just that.It’s incredibly important to think about how you would adapt to one of those alternate scenarios. How would your portfolio perform in a risk-off environment in the coming months? Are you prepared for a sudden spike in risk assets, and at what point would you need to change your positions to match this new reality? By thinking through these potential outcomes now, you’ll be much better equipped to deal with what actually plays out.

I have found that the most successful investors don’t know all the answers, but they ask the best questions. So let’s broaden our horizons a bit, and consider four potential future paths for the S&P 500 over the next six to eight weeks. But first, we’ll highlight some key levels to watch in the coming weeks.

After a strong rally off the October 2023 low, the SPX has now settled into a short-term range between 4700 and 4800. Any time a market settles into a range like this, we know two things. First, a breakout is likely happening fairly soon. Second, whichever way the price breaks, there will most likely be some further move in that same direction.

If the S&P pushes out of this range to the upside, then we will have broken to a new all-time high, and that “big round number” of 5000 will finally be within our grasp. What’s striking about a bullish scenario here is that the S&P has followed the seasonal patterns incredibly well over the last 18 months. Further strength here would absolutely go against normal seasonal weakness in Q1 of an election year.

Author’s note: I did indeed promise to play the trumpet on my show, The Final Bar, if and when the S&P 500 breaks above 5000. I will uphold that promise — and have already pulled out the horn to polish it up a bit.

If the market turns lower in the coming weeks, then I’d be watching two key levels below short-term support around 4700. 4600 was the market peak in July 2023, and I would not be surprised if that market follows the technical analysis concept called “polarity”, where previous resistance becomes support. Below that, we have an important price gap around 4450. To me, this represents the “line in the sand” for bulls, and if the S&P 500 would fail to hold that level (see the Super Bearish scenario below), then we may be in for plenty of pain into Q2.

Let’s get to the four potential scenarios, and remember, the point of this exercise is threefold:

Consider all four potential future paths for the index, think about what would cause each scenario to unfold in terms of the macro drivers, and review what signals/patterns/indicators would confirm the scenario.Decide which scenario you feel is most likely, and why you think that’s the case. Don’t forget to drop me a comment and let me know your vote!Think about each of the four scenarios would impact your current portfolio. How would you manage risk in each case? How and when would you take action to adapt to this new reality?

Let’s start with the most optimistic scenario, involving new all-time highs as soon as next week.

Scenario #1: The Very Bullish Scenario

In this first potential outcome, the pullback in early January was just a brief reset. Buying power that we observed this week continues, leading names like META and NVDA push onward and ever upward, and it’s risk-on across the board.

The Fed meeting later this month, in this scenario, probably leaves investors with a dovish sense of comfort, as the goldilocks scenario championed by the Fed is priced in with a broad and powerful advance well above the 5000 level.

Scenario #2: The Mildly Bullish Scenario

Perhaps a break to new all-time highs is a little much for investors to digest, given the sky-high valuations we’re already experiencing and the excessive bullish breadth and sentiment readings we’ve observed.

The second scenario, then, means that any break above 4800 is short-lived, the uptrend fails to follow through as momentum wanes, and the SPX ends February between 4600 and 4800. This could also mean that the equity markets experience more of a time correction than a price correction, not losing much ground but retrenching in the current range.

Scenario #3: The Mildly Bearish Scenario

The bearish scenarios involve a push below that 4600 level we mentioned earlier, and the third scenario would mean we don’t lose much more than that. This would be more of a price correction than scenario #2, but the SPX would importantly remain above that price gap around 4450.

It’s worth noting that the normal seasonal playbook for an election year suggests weakness through March, with a likely market low in March providing a launching pad into a strong Q2. Scenario #3 would mean we follow that playbook pretty closely.

Scenario #4: The Super Bearish Scenario

Here’s where things get really interesting. The last scenario is the “doomsday scenario,” meaning the market takes on a big-time change of character. Breadth conditions begin to turn down quickly, and the VIX spikes way above 20 as anxiety spreads among investors.

Perhaps the Fed meeting and press conference end up focusing more on persistent inflationary pressures. Maybe this earnings season ends up being way more negative than investors expect. The US Dollar could push higher and resume its former role as a “wrecking ball for risk assets.” By late February, we’re discussing a retest of the October 2022 low around 4100.

Have you decided which of these four potential scenarios is most likely based on your own analysis? Head over to my YouTube channel and drop a comment with your vote and why you see that as the most likely outcome.

Also, we did a similar analysis on the S&P 500 back in September 2023. The “mildly bearish” scenario ended up matching the market action pretty closely. Which scenario did you vote for?

Only by expanding our thinking through probabilistic analysis can we be best prepared for whatever the future may hold!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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MEM TV: The Easy Way to Uncover Stocks Poised to Outperform

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen takes a look at some of the items that drove price action last week. Growth stocks came roaring back for week two of 2024, which is great news for those that were believers last year. They can renew their belief! Earnings season began this week, and so Mary Ellen shares some of the names that were reported today and what to be on the lookout for next week as earnings season begins to ramp up. She then takes a look beneath the sectors, as it is compelling to have a good sense of where that relative out-performance is, and where the money flows are shaping up.

This video originally premiered January 12, 2024. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

New episodes of The MEM Edge premiere weekly on Fridays. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

If you’re looking for stocks to invest in in 2024, be sure to check out the MEM Edge Report! This report gives you detailed information on the top sectors, industries and stocks for the upcoming year, so you can make informed investment decisions. With this report, you’ll be sure to make the most of your investment opportunities in the new year!

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Business

IRS has collected more than $520M in back taxes from delinquent millionaires so far

The IRS announced Friday that it has recently collected more than half a billion dollars from millionaire Americans who owed tax debt.

The agency credited the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act for its stepped-up ability to pursue ‘high-income, high-wealth individuals,’ as well as complex partnerships and large corporations, who are not paying overdue tax bills.

The IRA, pushed by President Joe Biden and approved in 2022, earmarked $80 billion over 10 years to step up the IRS’ enforcement capabilities. While $20 billion was ultimately clawed back in 2023 as part of the deal to head off a debt-ceiling crisis, the agency indicated it had already made use of its initial allotment.

Over the past year, the IRS said, enforcement officers had recouped approximately $520 million from the most well-off segments of society.

“The IRS continues to increase scrutiny on high-income taxpayers as we work to reverse the historic low audit rates and limited focus that the wealthiest individuals and organizations faced in the years that predated the Inflation Reduction Act,’ said IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel in a release. ‘We are adding staff and technology to ensure that the taxpayers with the highest income, including partnerships, large corporations and millionaires and billionaires, pay what is legally owed under federal law.’

The Biden administration previously pledged to freeze audit rates for filers with $400,000 or less.

In its announcement, the IRS said its latest efforts have been concentrated on taxpayers with more than $1 million in income and more than $250,000 in tax debt. After an initial round of audits of 175 high-income earners yielded $38 million, it expanded last fall to 1,600 new taxpayers in this category that owe hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes, ultimately collecting $482 million. 

The agency said it has also zeroed in on 76 of the largest corporate partnerships in the U.S., with more than $10 billion in assets, whose structure may indicate a compliance risk. The partnerships represent a cross-section of industries including hedge funds, real estate investment partnerships, publicly traded partnerships, large law firms and other industries, the agency said.  

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Citigroup to lay off 20,000 employees in CEO Jane Fraser’s corporate overhaul

Citigroup said it was cutting 10% of its workforce in a bid to help boost the embattled bank’s results and stock price.

About 20,000 employees will be let go over the “medium term,” New York-based Citigroup said Friday in a slideshow tied to fourth-quarter earnings. While it wasn’t immediately clear how long that is, the bank has previously used that term to denote a three- to five-year period.

Citigroup had roughly 200,000 workers at the end of 2023, excluding Mexican operations that are in the process of being spun out, according to the presentation.

Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser announced a sweeping overhaul of the third-largest U.S. bank by assets in September. The company has been left behind by peers since the 2008 financial crisis as Fraser’s predecessors couldn’t get a handle on expenses and is the lowest valued among the six biggest U.S. banks.

In November, CNBC reported that managers and consultants involved in the effort — known internally by the code name “Project Bora Bora” — discussed job cuts of 10% in several major businesses.

The company has since executed several waves of layoffs, beginning with the top layers of the bank, with another round of cuts set for Jan. 22, according to a person familiar with the matter. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment.

American banks have been trimming jobs all throughout the past year, led by Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs, to lower costs amid stagnant revenue. Citigroup had been a notable outlier, maintaining staffing levels at around 240,000 for all of 2023, including its Mexico operations.

Citigroup said Friday it booked a $780 million charge in the fourth quarter tied to Fraser’s restructuring project, and that it may post another $1 billion in severance and other expenses in 2024. The moves could help trim up to $2.5 billion in costs over time, the bank said.

In a footnote to its presentation, Citigroup said the 20,000 job cuts could be “slightly lower” if it chooses to use internal resources rather than outsource functions.

Given the outlook for thousands of more job cuts over the next few years, some Citigroup employees are using vacation time or mental health leave to search for their next position, said the person familiar with the matter, who declined to be identified speaking about personnel matters.

“People are looking aggressively,” the person said. “I know senior VPs who are on vacation now, but they’re never coming back.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Bill Belichick’s next job? Nine teams could be options for ex-Pats coach

Wow.

Just when you think the NFL “script” can’t take you in a completely unexpected direction – and, yes, Belichick’s divorce from the New England Patriots doesn’t come as a shock now (but just a few months ago?) – the league’s greatest modern coach is suddenly about to assess his employment options.

Many NFL observers, insiders and talking heads have suggested 31 teams should be lining up for BB’s services – OK, sure. It’d be fun to consider how good a fit he’d be for a third head coaching stint with the New York Jets – his two (ridiculously brief) previous tenures producing a 0-0 record – and maybe every club he’s never worked for.

But the league’s coaching carousel is in overdrive, so no time to waste on wholly unrealistic scenarios here. At present, these nine teams – listed alphabetically – seem like ones that could realistically vie for Belichick’s legendary services and perhaps even drastically change their current circumstances to do so:

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Atlanta Falcons

Some thought bubble paraphrasing, just for fun? “OK, Tom Brady, how about I move into your sad little division and see if I can double (or triple) the number of Lombardi Trophies you won here? Also – and, a thousand apologies, sir – but, dearest Mr. Blank, I feel like I owe you a Super Bowl or two after that regrettable episode in Houston seven years ago.” In all seriousness, money would be no object if team owner Arthur Blank puts on the full-court press to get Belichick. And though GM Terry Fontenot was retained following former HC Arthur Smith’s firing after midnight Monday, organizational control also isn’t likely to be much of an issue when it comes to an 81-year-old owner trying to bring a 58-year-old franchise its first championship. And it’s not like this is a team in tatters. Yes, the Falcons need a solution at quarterback, but the supporting cast appears to be quite upwardly mobile: TE Kyle Pitts, WR Drake London, RB Bijan Robinson, S Jessie Bates III, CB A.J. Terrell, K Younghoe Koo plus the makings of an elite offensive line led by RG Chris Lindstrom. Atlanta is also projected to have roughly $30 million in cap space to ameliorate other areas. With Belichick on the sideline, this might be a 10-win team even if it ran a 10-man offense.

Chicago Bears

Matt Eberflus is still in charge … a day after OC Luke Getsy and several offensive assistants were served up as sacrificial lambs. But several coaches around the league – certainly Eberflus among them – should be watching their backs when the greatest coach since Vince Lombardi is on the loose. And why wouldn’t a football historian like Belichick want a job, one of the two oldest in the NFL along with the Cardinals, that allows him to coach in the Soldier Field snow against those Green Bay Packers in the league’s longest-running rivalry? Oh yeah, there’s also the matter of choosing between ascending QB Justin Fields or replacing him, via the 2024 draft’s No. 1 pick, with Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Stick with Fields, and you’re probably getting a massive payoff to offload that draft selection and then building out a young roster that already took a huge step forward in 2023. And GM Ryan Poles, assuming he’d stick around in this scenario given the generally good work he’s already put in, could help apportion the $60+ million available this year for free agency, even after acquiring and extending DE Montez Sweat at the trade deadline. Your move, McCaskeys. Maybe.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Let’s acknowledge off the top that, among 29-year-old “expansion” franchises, the Carolina Panthers have a vacant HC position, not the Jags. But would you rather work for trigger-happy Carolina owner David Tepper and a team that just earned the No. 1 pick of the draft for the Bears? Or would you wonder if Jaguars owner Shad Khan, whose team just sacked its defensive staff, maybe sweeps out HC Doug Pederson and the rest after an 8-3 start (and presumed years of dominance over the AFC South) ended with a 9-8 finish and plenty of time to play on Duval County’s beautiful golf courses. Spending a few weeks a year in Old England might not entice Belichick if this job presented itself – but QB Trevor Lawrence, an array of offensive weaponry and a high-ceiling defense that obviously required better coaching would sure be alluring. So is a lovely new training facility and enough roster flexibility to lure more desired players into it. Speculative? Maybe. But among things we know, Khan can afford to make a switch and should consider it given the circumstances.

Las Vegas Raiders

A lot of work to be done here – a lot – which was also the case in Foxborough in 2000. But Belichick himself extolled the abilities of Davante Adams, Maxx Crosby, Josh Jacobs, AJ Cole and Daniel Carlson, among others, before playing the Raiders. And while the Silver and Black are one of the NFL’s proudest franchises, there’s an opportunity to revive their legacy in a new city and in a fancy new stadium off the Strip. Yet owner Mark Davis, who’s in the process of building a WNBA dynasty – one that stretches league rules like the Patriots often did under BB – would have to decide if he wants to try and replicate New England’s success after watching the “Patriot Way” fail so spectacularly five minutes ago, leading to the ouster of former Belichick lieutenants Josh McDaniels and Dave Ziegler. And Belichick would have to weigh how much he really wants to deal with Kansas City Chiefs HC Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes after becoming so accustomed to ruling the AFC East with an iron fist.

Los Angeles Chargers

The Chiefs issue obviously applies here, too. But one major consideration could trump all others: QB Justin Herbert, who’s about to enter his prime but has been challenged to approach his vast potential amid near-constant staff turnover. That might offset a talented but underachieving roster that’s almost surely going to be purged of some combination of stars (Keenan Allen? Joey Bosa? Khalil Mack? Mike Williams?) just to become cap-compliant. But owner Dean Spanos, who’s struggling to keep up with the Joneses (and Rams) in Hollywood, also has an open general manager’s chair that Belichick could either keep warm – much as he struggles in the role – or fill with a person of his choice. And those chairs are bound to be awfully comfy when the Bolts’ swanky new El Segundo headquarters open in a few months.

New York Giants

It’s a longish shot, especially for an organization that doesn’t operate capriciously. But Belichick’s affinity for the franchise that basically raised him is well known. And whether 2022 Coach of the Year Brian Daboll’s team overachieved in his first season or regressed in 2023, it’s not like there’s not ample room for improvement here. Given an unsettled quarterback position after Daniel Jones’ 2023 retrograde and core players like RB Saquon Barkley and S Xavier McKinney on the road to free agency, this still feels like a quasi-rebuild situation, even with at least $30 million in the player acquisition bank. But Belichick’s comfort level with the Mara family would theoretically go a long way … if the Giants were indeed willing to chart an unexpected course correction.

Philadelphia Eagles

Yes, it might be getting so bad in the City of Brotherly Shove that (more) massive changes could be considered, pending the outcome of Monday night’s wild-card game in Tampa for a Philly team that’s lost five of six. And this isn’t even to suggest HC Nick Sirianni and his staff deserve to be swept out less than a year after coming oh-so-close to winning Super Bowl 57. But this gets back to the premise that any owner – even Jeffrey Lurie – has to take stock of his operation when a mastermind of Belichick’s caliber, not he has a contemporary equal, becomes available. (And wouldn’t Lurie just delight in the notion of setting Belichick loose on Jerry Jones’ Dallas Cowboys twice a year?) And if Belichick was potentially open to working with EVP/GM Howie Roseman, who’s been on the Eagles’ payroll as long as Belichick was on New England’s, that could be a good way of threading the continuity needle while keeping personnel matters divorced from the coach’s plate. But if Belichick, 71, wants to win big now? And Lurie’s not convinced Sirianni can get this talented team over the Super Bowl hump? Far stranger things have happened in the NFL.

Seattle Seahawks

History suggests that good things happen when Belichick replaces Pete Carroll (which happened in New England 24 years ago for you youngsters). BB would have to be on the screws in a division where Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan are your counterparts, and the Arizona Cardinals seem poised to rise from the Phoenix ashes quickly. But Belichick never retreats from a challenge. And the facilities in the Pacific Northwest are A+, there’s another great general manager (John Schneider) in place to handle personnel, roster and cap issues – and, as Carroll noted after being kicked upstairs Wednesday, there’s plenty to work with on a team that’s gone 9-8 the past two seasons with Geno Smith behind center. Yes, probably a few costly veterans (Jamal Adams? Tyler Lockett? Quandre Diggs?) that need to be purged for cap – and maybe other – reasons. But the makings of a solid nucleus are present on both sides of the ball, and Smith is at least serviceable if not a long-term answer. Finally – and not for nothing, Bill – but we know you like boats. Seattle is basically one big, beautiful shipyard – and a good spot to upgrade your “VIII Rings” skiff to a “IX Rings” superyacht. Just saying.

Washington Commanders

If you’re Belichick, it’s a burgundy-and-golden opportunity to restore a once-proud franchise to relevance … even if it’s likely going to take a few years and require playing at a rickety stadium an hour from the team’s substandard suburban practice base of operations. And if you’re rookie owner Josh Harris, if you’re willing to pause and/or pivot from your current search for a football czar, you can offer a Brink’s truck worth of generational wealth, the No. 2 pick in the draft (one that theoretically stops the team’s quarterbacking merry-go-round), the most cap space in the league (approximately $75 million) to reboot this roster and, almost certainly, whatever level of organizational control is required to close the deal. And if that’s actually not quite enough? Buy a docking berth for “VIII Rings” in Annapolis, Md., so Belichick can get back to his beloved Naval Academy stomping grounds whenever time permits … which might not be until 2026 given the state of the Commanders at the moment.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter @ByNateDavis.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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NBA mock draft 3.0: France, G League Ignite, Kentucky dominate list

The men’s college basketball conference schedule is starting to heat up, and the international leagues are well into their seasons.

That means players have had opportunities to impress – or not impress – NBA executives and scouts.

One trend that has been spotted early in the season is the rise of international players, including France’s Alexandre Sarr, whose brother Olivier plays for the Oklahoma City Thunder, Serbia’s Nikola Topic and France’s Zaccharie Risacher.

The NBA’s G League Ignite has four projected first-round picks, including two lottery picks, and John Calipari continues to bring talent to Kentucky. The Wildcats also have four projected first-round picks on their roster.

Here’s a look at USA TODAY Sports’ NBA mock draft in early January:

2024 NBA mock draft

1. Alexandre Sarr, Perth (Australia) Wildcats

Forward-center, 7-feet-1, 216 pounds, 18 years old

2023-24 stats: 9.6 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 50.8% FG

2. Nikola Topic, KK Crvena Zvezda (Serbia)

Guard, 6-6, 200, 18

2023-24 stats: 18.6 ppg, 6.9 apg, 3.7 rpg, 52.4% FG (for KK Mega Basket before transfer)

3. Zaccharie Risacher, JL Bourg (France)

Forward, 6-9, 200, 18

2023-24 stats: 10.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg

4. Ron Holland, G League Ignite

2023-24 stats: 17.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.8 apg, 2.4 spg, 44.5% FG, 21.4% 3P, 75% FT

5. Isaiah Collier, Southern California

Guard, 6-5, 210, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 15.6 ppg, 4.6 apg, 4.1 rpg, 1.3 spg, 50.3% FG, 31.9% 3P, 67.1% FT

6. Ja’Kobe Walter, Baylor

Guard, 6-5, 195, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 15.3 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 1.6 apg, 42.7% FG, 40% 3P, 87.3% FT

7. Cody Williams, Colorado

Forward, 6-8, 190, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 14.0 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.0 apg, 62.3% FG, 60% 3P, 66.7% FT

8. Matas Buzelis, G League Ignite

Forward, 6-10, 209, 19

2023-24 stats: 11.8 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 1.6 apg, 1.4 bpg, 1.1 spg, 41.8% FG, 22.4% 3P, 78.3% FT

9. Rob Dillingham, Kentucky

Guard, 6-3, 176, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 14.4 ppg, 4.1 apg, 3.5 rpg, 1.5 spg, 48% FG, 44% 3P, 78% FT

10. Reed Sheppard, Kentucky

Guard, 6-3, 187, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.1 apg, 2.5 spg, 56% FG, 54% 3P, 87% FT

11. Kyle Filipowski, Duke

Center, 7-0, 248, sophomore, 20

2023-24 stats: 16.8 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 3.1 apg, 2.0 bpg, 1.3 spg, 50.3% FG, 31% 3P, 70.6% FT

12. Ryan Dunn, Virginia

Guard, 6-8, 216, sophomore, 21

2023-24 stats: 9.7 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 2.2 bpg, 2.1 spg, 53.2% FG, 59.6% FT

13. Tidjane Salaun, Cholet (France)

Forward, 6-9, 205, 18

2023-24 stats: 7.2 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 1.3 spg, 34.7% FG, 30.9% 3P, 73.7% FT

14. Donovan Clingan, UConn

Center, 7-2, 280, sophomore, 19

2023-24 stats: 13.9 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg, 1.3 apg, 63.2% FG, 53.2% FT

15. Stephon Castle, UConn

Guard, 6-6, 215, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 9.4 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 3.3 apg, 1.1 spg, 51.7% FG, 20% 3P, 75% FT

16. Kevin McCullar Jr., Kansas

Guard, 6-7, 212, graduate student, 22

2023-24 stats: 20.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.6 spg, 48.4% FG, 36.2% 3P, 83.9% FT

17. Tyler Smith, G League Ignite

Forward, 6-11, 224, 19

2023-24 stats: 13.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 1.5 apg, 1.0 bpg, 47% FG, 38.8% 3P, 68.2% FT

18. Yves Missi, Baylor

Center, 7-0, 235, freshman, 19

2023-24 stats: 10.1 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.8 bpg, 1.0 spg, 65.9% FG, 50.9% FT

19. Justin Edwards, Kentucky

Guard, 6-8, 203, freshman, 20

2023-24 stats: 9.1 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.0 spg, 56% FG, 24% 3P, 68% FT

20. Dalton Knecht, Tennessee

Guard, 6-6, 213, graduate student, 22

2023-24 stats: 15.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.6 apg, 45.3% FG, 36.1% 3P, 80.4% FT

21. Bobi Klintman, Cairns (Australia) Taipans

Forward, 6-8, 225, 20

2023-24 stats: 10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 45.5% FG, 36.1% 3P, 80.4% FT

22. Zach Edey, Purdue

Center, 7-4, 300, senior, 21

2023-24 stats: 21.8 ppg, 10.4 rpg, 2.3 bpg, 63.2% FG, 74.7% FT

23. Tyrese Proctor, Duke

Guard, 6-5, 183, sophomore, 19

2023-24 stats: 9.0 ppg, 4.3 apg, 2.6 rpg, 43.7% FG, 31.9% 3P, 77.3% FT

24. Kel’el Ware, Indiana

Center, 7-0, 242, sophomore, 19

2023-24 stats: 14.7 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 57.5% FG, 65.1% FT

25. Oso Ighodaro, Marquette

Center, 6-11, 235, senior, 21

2023-24 stats: 13.6 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.2 apg, 61.3% FG, 64.2% FT

26. Trevon Brazile, Arkansas

Forward, 6-10, 220, sophomore, 21

2023-24 stats: 9.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg, 50% FG, 38.6% 3P, 69.2% FT

27. Trista da Silva, Colorado

Forward, 6-9, 220, senior, 22

2023-24 stats: 15.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.0 spg, 52.4% FG, 36.8% 3P, 83% FT

28. Izan Almansa, G League Ignite

Forward, 6-10, 230, 18

2023-24 stats: 10.0 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.2 bpg, 54.5% FG

29. D.J. Wagner, Kentucky

Guard, 6-4, 192, freshman, 18

2023-24 stats: 12.4 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.1 rpg, 1.0 spg, 44% FG, 33% 3P, 73% FT

30. Trey Alexander, Creighton

Guard, 6-4, 190, junior, 20

2023-24 stats: 16.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.0 spg, 45.2% FG, 31.6% 3P, 77.6% FT

Follow NBA reporter Jeff Zillgitt on social media @JeffZillgitt

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Which NHL teams could be sellers with trade deadline approaching?

The official two-month countdown to the 3 p.m. ET March 8 NHL trade deadline got off to a great start with a Philadelphia Flyers-Anaheim Ducks deal early in the week.

Are more trades coming soon?

The Flyers sent prospect Cutter Gauthier to the Ducks for Jamie Drysdale and a 2025 second-round pick. The Flyers moved the forward because he said he wouldn’t sign with the team and his value was high after helping the United States win gold at the world junior championship. They get a young though often-injured defenseman who can help their struggling power play.

Because many contending teams are up against a tight salary cap, they likely will wait until closer until that day to build up the cap space to make their acquisitions. But recent years show that many moves are made before the final day.

Though things can change between now and then, here are some teams that could provide the talent that is moved for draft picks and prospects:

Calgary Flames

They lost Johnny Gaudreau for nothing when he went to the Columbus Blue Jackets in free agency in 2022, and traded Matthew Tkachuk that summer when it was clear he wouldn’t re-sign. Their pending unrestricted free agents include Elias Lindholm, a two-way center who was Selke Trophy runner-up in 2020-21, and defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev. If it’s clear they won’t sign, they could be moved. But the team is in the playoff hunt, so that decision could come closer to the deadline.

Chicago Blackhawks

Connor Bedard (broken jaw) is one of nine players on the injured list and Corey Perry had his contract terminated. This team isn’t going anywhere and is still rebuilding. Pending UFAs include Tyler Johnson, a two-time Stanley Cup winner. But the Blackhawks signed Nick Foligno to a two-year extension.

Montreal Canadiens

With Sam Montembeault signed to an extension, could goalie Jake Allen be available in a trade? He has another year in his contract after this season. Pending UFA Sean Monahan could also draw interest.

San Jose Sharks

They started terribly and are sliding again after a decent stretch. GM Mike Grier has moved Erik Karlsson and Timo Meier in the last year, so he’s aggressive. The Sharks’ pending UFAs include forward Anthony Duclair and goalie Kaapo Kahkonen. Grier has shown with the Karlsson deal that he’s willing to deal players with term remaining.

Anaheim Ducks

They started strong, then faded and Trevor Zegras and Pavel Mintyukov are out long-term. GM Pat Verbeek has dealt his pending UFAs before. This year’s group includes forwards Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg. Defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin, a penalty killer, was dealt last season at the deadline and could move again. The Drysdale deal showed Verbeek is willing to move a player with years left on his contract. Goalie John Gibson always seems to be in trade rumors, but he has a modified no-trade clause, and he has three years left after this season with a $6.4 million cap hit.

Nashville Predators

They’re in the playoff hunt, but defenseman Tyson Barrie has requested a trade. The pending UFA is out with an injury.

Philadelphia Flyers

They’re an interesting case because they’re in the playoff mix, but they’re also still in a rebuild. If they move out pending UFAs, defensemen Nick Seeler and Sean Walker could draw interest. Walker is a right-shot defenseman like Drysdale.

Carolina Hurricanes

They’ll be a buyer because they always could use more scoring. But they’re loaded on defense, and Brady Skjei, Brett Pesce, Tony DeAngelo and Jalen Chatfield are pending UFAs. One could be moved in a deal. DeAngelo has been a healthy scratch and can help a power play, so it might be him.

Ottawa Senators

They made a coaching change but haven’t received the usual bump. Plus, they need to clear out cap space to sign Shane Pinto when he finishes serving his 41-game gambling suspension. Vladimir Tarasenko, who moved before last season’s deadline, and Dominik Kubalik are among the team’s pending UFAs. Does the emergence of Jake Sanderson leave them room to move a defenseman?

Columbus Blue Jackets

The injuries are piling up again and they are near the bottom of the league. They don’t have a lot of pending UFAs (Columbus native Jack Roslovic is the only one among regulars), but moving out players with years left on their deals could help them long-term. A player to watch: Goalie Elvis Merzlikins expressed frustration Friday with his recent lack of playing time – ‘I believe that I am No. 1,’ he said – though he said he has not requested a trade.

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