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In this edition of StockCharts TV‘s The Final Bar, Tony Dwyer of Canaccord Genuity shares insights on today’s Fed meeting and what data he’s following to anticipate rate cuts through 2024. Dave tracks mega cap growth stocks, including MSFT and GOOGL, which are in pullback mode after earnings.

This video originally premiered on January 31, 2024. Watch on our dedicated Final Bar page on StockCharts TV!

New episodes of The Final Bar premiere every weekday afternoon. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Will the Fed cut interest rates at their March meeting? Investors were looking for an answer from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell when he took the podium today. Alas, Powell was noncommittal to that, which wasn’t what the stock market wanted to hear.

The broad stock market indexes—the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU), S&P 500 ($SPX), and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ)—fell even further after Powell took the podium. All three indexes closed lower today—the S&P 500 down 1.61%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.82%, and the Nasdaq Composite down by 2.23%. Communication Services and Technology sectors were the worst-performing sectors today. 

The daily chart of the S&P 500 below shows that, in spite of today’s decline, the index is still in an uptrend. The Fibonacci retracement level annotation from the January 4, 2022 high to the October 13, 2022 low shows the 100% retracement level coinciding with the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA). This could be the first support level to watch for. If the S&P 500 continues lower and hits its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), the uptrend would no longer be valid, and you’d have to look for price action at the next support level. As it stands now, it could be the 50-day SMA, but that could change.

CHART 1. S&P 500 INDEX CLOSE TO ITS FIRST SUPPORT LEVEL. The 21-day exponential moving and the 100% Fibonacci retracement level coincide at around 4825. The S&P 500 closed at 4845.65 on Wednesday. Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Fed Speak

Today’s price action indicates how heavily the stock market had priced in a March rate cut. Prior to today’s presser, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool, there was about a 50% probability of a rate cut in March. But since then, the likelihood of a rate cut has dropped to around 36%.

Even though Chairman Powell stated that the economy has made good progress, the supply and demand conditions in the labor market have come into better balance, and inflation has eased, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) needs greater confidence that inflation is moving toward their 2% target.

Powell stated that the Fed is in “risk management” mode, and the timing of rate cuts is critical. Too soon may reverse the progress made so far. As a result, the Fed is prepared to hold the interest rate steady for longer if needed. The decision, as always, is data-dependent.

One point Powell brought up several times is the labor market’s strength. That area is strong, but wants to see the supply and demand forces come into balance. Today’s ADP private-sector jobs report showed lower-than-expected new jobs. Let’s see what Friday’s January jobs report reveals, as, after hearing from Powell today, investors will pay close attention to Friday’s data. One more month of encouraging data is a move toward interest rate cuts, maybe not in March, but possibly in May. But if the labor market keeps getting stronger, expect further selling to take place.

Another point Powell brought up is the Fed continues to be committed to bringing inflation down to 2%. The risk is that inflation could stabilize above 2%, so the FOMC is not rushing to cut rates.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Yield Index ($TNX) fell on Wednesday (see chart below), closing at 3.97%, near its January 12 close.

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF 10-YEAR US TREASURY YIELD INDEX. A fall in yields is related to the government’s funding plan. How much further can the 10-year yield fall?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

On another note, shares of Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) all fell after the companies reported their quarterly earnings after Tuesday’s close. 

Does today’s decline mean we’ll see a correction? One day doesn’t make a trend, so watch the support area on the S&P 500 and other indexes. The economy is still strong and, for as long as that’s the case, it’s likely stocks will hit a support level and rebound.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The Federal Reserve announced Wednesday it was keeping interest rates at their current levels amid improving consumer confidence and a declining inflation rate.

In the run-up to Wednesday’s announcement, some Fed officials have been signaling that the current rate has been enough to knock inflation down toward the central bank’s 2% target.

The federal funds target rate has remained at 5.25% to 5.5% since last summer, following 11 increases that began in March 2022. The rate sets a benchmark for other interest rates throughout the economy — everything from credit cards to mortgages, and business and auto loans.

Some economists believe these higher rates have helped pull down inflation.

In December, the main measure of consumer-focused inflation, the 12-month consumer price index, came in at at 3.3% — little changed from the previous month’s 3.1% measurement.

And the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, came in even lower, at 2.6%.

In remarks this month, Fed governor Christopher Waller said that slowing inflation, combined with continued steady employment gains had led to an economic landscape that was “almost as good as it gets.”

“The progress I have noted on inflation, combined with the data in hand on economic and financial conditions and my outlook has made me more confident than I have been since 2021 that inflation is on a path to 2%,” he said in written remarks to the Brookings Institution, according to The Associated Press.

Meanwhile, two gauges of consumer confidence show that Americans are starting to feel more upbeat about the economy. On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index reached a two-year high on what the business group said was ‘surging views of current conditions’ and ‘declining pessimism about [the] future.’

That followed a reading earlier this month from the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey that reached its highest level since 2021.

Yet, there are already some signals that post-pandemic economic growth has peaked. On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department reported that fewer Americans quit their jobs last year compared with 2022, while the seasonally adjusted level in December fell to the lowest monthly level in nearly three years.

Economists believe that workers are more inclined to leave their jobs if they believe a better opportunity awaits them.

‘On balance, the different labor market indicators show that the labor market is holding up well, but there are signs of weakness such as lower hiring rates and rising unemployment rate,’ analysts with Citibank said in a note to clients Tuesday. ‘We will continue to watch jobless claims data as one of the more timely indicators for the labor market.’

At 3.7%, the unemployment rate is now back to pre-pandemic levels, though it has crept higher from the post-pandemic low of 3.4% seen in January 2023. The four-month moving average of weekly initial jobless claims has not seen a meaningful increase in the entire post-pandemic era.

But January has seen a slew of layoff announcements, especially in more white-collar industries such as tech and media.

‘Increasing reports of localized layoffs confirm that labor market conditions are not as strong as they were a year ago and that some pockets of weakness have emerged,’ Lydia Boussour, senior economist at the consulting firm EY, said in a note to clients Tuesday.

Still, traders believe the economy remains strong enough that they have estimated the probability of the Fed’s first rate cut happening in March at 61.5% — down from a 73% likelihood a month ago. If the Fed does indeed reduce interest rates in March, it will have been two years since it first began raising them to fight inflation.

Not everyone is that optimistic about an imminent rate cut.

‘We think markets are overly optimistic that we’ll see a Fed interest rate cut in March,’ Vanguard chief global economist Joe Davis said in a note to clients Tuesday.

‘It likely will be midyear before policymakers are confident that they have reined in inflation sufficiently to start cutting their target for short-term interest rates.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A district court judge in Florida on Wednesday dismissed Disney’s lawsuit against Gov. Ron DeSantis over the loss of a long-standing planning district, ruling that Disney lacked standing to bring the suit.

Judge Allen Winsor of the Northern District Court of Florida said Disney’s claims of injury resulting from the appointment of board members to a new district created by Florida lawmakers was ‘in the past.’

Disney also failed to show damages from specific actions the new board has taken or will take because of the governor’s alleged control of it, the judge wrote.

‘In fact, Disney has not alleged any specific injury from any board action,’ Winsor said.

Winsor was nominated by then-President Donald Trump in 2018 and was sworn in in 2019.

A Disney spokesperson released a statement following the ruling:

“This is an important case with serious implications for the rule of law, and it will not end here. If left unchallenged, this would set a dangerous precedent and give license to states to weaponize their official powers to punish the expression of political viewpoints they disagree with. We are determined to press forward with our case.”

A spokesperson for DeSantis released the following statement:

‘As stated by Governor DeSantis when he signed HB 9-B, the Corporate Kingdom is over. The days of Disney controlling its own government and being placed above the law are long gone. The federal court’s decision made it clear that Governor DeSantis was correct: Disney is still just one of many corporations in the state, and they do not have a right to their own special government. In short — as long predicted, case dismissed.’

The origins of the suit lie in the battle over the passage of a bill, signed into law by DeSantis in the summer of 2022, that limited discussion of gender and sexuality in schools. Dubbed the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill by opponents, the bill restricted teaching those subjects to fourth grade and above.

Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.Joe Burbank / Tribune News Service via Getty Images file

Former Disney CEO Bob Chapek came out against the bill following vocal opposition on social media from Disney employees.

In response, Florida state lawmakers began taking steps to dismantle what was then known as Disney’s Reedy Creek Improvement District, the planning area it had maintained de facto control over since the late-1960s. That control allowed the company to make building and infrastructure changes in and around Walt Disney World.

In Feb. 2023, the legislature effectively stripped away Disney’s control over Reedy Creek, renaming it the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and appointing five officials backed by DeSantis to serve on a newly created board.

Disney subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming DeSantis and the legislature had dissolved Reedy Creek in retaliation for and in violation of the company’s First Amendment rights. A separate lawsuit filed by Disney alleged the new Oversight District was failing to properly preserve records.

In December, the Associated Press reported that about 50 out of some 370 employees had left the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District since it its takeover, ‘raising concerns that decades of institutional knowledge are departing with them, along with a reputation for a well-run government.’

CORRECTION (Jan. 31, 2024, 5:40 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated what grades are covered by the law limiting discussion of gender and sexuality in schools. It restricts teaching those subjects to fourth grade and above, not third grade.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A district court judge in Florida on Wednesday dismissed Disney’s lawsuit against Gov. Ron DeSantis over the loss of a long-standing planning district, ruling that Disney lacked standing to bring the suit.

Judge Allen Winsor of the Northern District Court of Florida said Disney’s claims of injury resulting from the appointment of board members to a new district created by Florida lawmakers was ‘in the past.’

Disney also failed to show damages from specific actions the new board has taken or will take because of the governor’s alleged control of it, the judge wrote.

‘In fact, Disney has not alleged any specific injury from any board action,’ Winsor said.

Winsor was nominated by then-President Donald Trump in 2018 and was sworn in in 2019.

A Disney spokesperson released a statement following the ruling:

“This is an important case with serious implications for the rule of law, and it will not end here. If left unchallenged, this would set a dangerous precedent and give license to states to weaponize their official powers to punish the expression of political viewpoints they disagree with. We are determined to press forward with our case.”

A spokesperson for DeSantis released the following statement:

‘As stated by Governor DeSantis when he signed HB 9-B, the Corporate Kingdom is over. The days of Disney controlling its own government and being placed above the law are long gone. The federal court’s decision made it clear that Governor DeSantis was correct: Disney is still just one of many corporations in the state, and they do not have a right to their own special government. In short — as long predicted, case dismissed.’

The origins of the suit lie in the battle over the passage of a bill, signed into law by DeSantis in the summer of 2022, that limited discussion of gender and sexuality in schools. Dubbed the ‘Don’t Say Gay’ bill by opponents, the bill restricted teaching those subjects to fourth grade and above.

Walt Disney World in Lake Buena Vista, Fla.Joe Burbank / Tribune News Service via Getty Images file

Former Disney CEO Bob Chapek came out against the bill following vocal opposition on social media from Disney employees.

In response, Florida state lawmakers began taking steps to dismantle what was then known as Disney’s Reedy Creek Improvement District, the planning area it had maintained de facto control over since the late-1960s. That control allowed the company to make building and infrastructure changes in and around Walt Disney World.

In Feb. 2023, the legislature effectively stripped away Disney’s control over Reedy Creek, renaming it the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District and appointing five officials backed by DeSantis to serve on a newly created board.

Disney subsequently filed a lawsuit claiming DeSantis and the legislature had dissolved Reedy Creek in retaliation for and in violation of the company’s First Amendment rights. A separate lawsuit filed by Disney alleged the new Oversight District was failing to properly preserve records.

In December, the Associated Press reported that about 50 out of some 370 employees had left the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District since it its takeover, ‘raising concerns that decades of institutional knowledge are departing with them, along with a reputation for a well-run government.’

CORRECTION (Jan. 31, 2024, 5:40 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article misstated what grades are covered by the law limiting discussion of gender and sexuality in schools. It restricts teaching those subjects to fourth grade and above, not third grade.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

U.S. colleges and universities won’t receive students’ applications for financial aid until at least early March, the Education Department said Tuesday.

The delay is the result of the department’s decision to fix an error in how students’ aid eligibility is calculated. The fix is intended to cover students entering college for the 2024-25 academic year.

Normally, schools receive student data from the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, in late fall or early winter, soon after students start receiving the applications themselves starting in October.

But a bumpy rollout of a new, simplified FAFSA form mandated by Congress in 2020 led to current students’ being unable to fully access applications until the first week of 2024, signaling that delays in getting financial aid offers from schools for the coming academic year would be inevitable.

Then, the department confirmed this month that it had failed to update the tables used to calculate students’ families’ eligibility based on inflation.

The series of mishaps ultimately led to Tuesday’s announcement.

“On the very day that schools were expecting FAFSA applicant information, they were instead notified by the U.S. Department of Education that they shouldn’t expect to receive that data until March, at the earliest,’ Justin Draeger, the president of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators, said in a statement Tuesday.

‘These continued delays, communicated at the last minute, threaten to harm the very students and families that federal student aid is intended to help,’ Draeger said.

In its statement announcing the latest delay, the department also acknowledged that students can’t currently make corrections to their forms and wouldn’t be able to do so until the first half of March.

‘With this last-minute news, our nation’s colleges are once again left scrambling as they determine how best to work within these new timelines to issue aid offers as soon as possible,’ Draeger said, adding that financially vulnerable students shouldn’t be the ones to ‘pay the price for these missteps.”

An Education Department website lists a host of other issues on the new form that are affecting applicants, including the inability of students whose parents who may lack Social Security numbers to apply.

In its latest statement, the department said 3.1 million FAFSA forms have been successfully submitted since the redesigned application went live. A spokesperson didn’t have additional comment beyond today’s statement.

“The Better FAFSA makes it as simple and easy as possible for families to get help paying for college, and updating our tables will help even more students get the help they need,” Undersecretary of Education James Kvaal said in the statement.

“Updating our calculations will help students qualify for as much financial aid as possible. Thank you to the financial aid advisers, college counselors, and many others helping us put students first.” 

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

High-performing Walmart managers now have the ability to earn more than $400,000 a year after the retail giant announced it is offering the ability for some managers to earn $20,000 worth of stock grants starting in April.

In a video posted Monday on LinkedIn, Walmart U.S. President and CEO Brian Furner said the amount of the stock grant rewards would be based on the store formats where the managers are employed. Walmart Supercenter managers are eligible to receive the $20,000 limit.

Combined with a previously announced new average salary of $128,000 and the ability to earn up to 200% of that salary in bonuses, a Walmart manager could earn as much as $404,000 a year.

“A Walmart store manager is running a multimillion-dollar business and managing hundreds of people, and it’s a far more complex job today than when I managed a store,” Furner said. “And we ask our managers to own their roles and act like owners. And now, they’ll literally be owners.’

A Walmart spokesperson has told NBC News there are about 4,600 Walmart stores, including more than 3,500 Supercenters.

The company has estimated that 75% of Walmart managers started out as hourly workers, suggesting many never graduated from college.

However, Walmart has more recently begun to look to college grads to help fill a reported slowing pipeline of managerial talent: In 2022, it launched a program for recent college graduates and current college students who are within 12 months of graduating. The program, for which Walmart associates are also eligible, allows the employees to ‘learn the ins and outs of Walmart’ and train to be salaried members of management at local stores.

Walmart also announced this month that the average hourly pay for U.S. workers was set to rise to $18 an hour.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

U.S. colleges and universities won’t receive students’ applications for financial aid until at least early March, the Education Department said Tuesday.

The delay is the result of the department’s decision to fix an error in how students’ aid eligibility is calculated. The fix is intended to cover students entering college for the 2024-25 academic year.

Normally, schools receive student data from the Free Application for Federal Student Aid, or FAFSA, in late fall or early winter, soon after students start receiving the applications themselves starting in October.

But a bumpy rollout of a new, simplified FAFSA form mandated by Congress in 2020 led to current students’ being unable to fully access applications until the first week of 2024, signaling that delays in getting financial aid offers from schools for the coming academic year would be inevitable.

Then, the department confirmed this month that it had failed to update the tables used to calculate students’ families’ eligibility based on inflation.

The series of mishaps ultimately led to Tuesday’s announcement.

“On the very day that schools were expecting FAFSA applicant information, they were instead notified by the U.S. Department of Education that they shouldn’t expect to receive that data until March, at the earliest,’ Justin Draeger, the president of the National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators, said in a statement Tuesday.

‘These continued delays, communicated at the last minute, threaten to harm the very students and families that federal student aid is intended to help,’ Draeger said.

In its statement announcing the latest delay, the department also acknowledged that students can’t currently make corrections to their forms and wouldn’t be able to do so until the first half of March.

‘With this last-minute news, our nation’s colleges are once again left scrambling as they determine how best to work within these new timelines to issue aid offers as soon as possible,’ Draeger said, adding that financially vulnerable students shouldn’t be the ones to ‘pay the price for these missteps.”

An Education Department website lists a host of other issues on the new form that are affecting applicants, including the inability of students whose parents who may lack Social Security numbers to apply.

In its latest statement, the department said 3.1 million FAFSA forms have been successfully submitted since the redesigned application went live. A spokesperson didn’t have additional comment beyond today’s statement.

“The Better FAFSA makes it as simple and easy as possible for families to get help paying for college, and updating our tables will help even more students get the help they need,” Undersecretary of Education James Kvaal said in the statement.

“Updating our calculations will help students qualify for as much financial aid as possible. Thank you to the financial aid advisers, college counselors, and many others helping us put students first.” 

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

High-performing Walmart managers now have the ability to earn more than $400,000 a year after the retail giant announced it is offering the ability for some managers to earn $20,000 worth of stock grants starting in April.

In a video posted Monday on LinkedIn, Walmart U.S. President and CEO Brian Furner said the amount of the stock grant rewards would be based on the store formats where the managers are employed. Walmart Supercenter managers are eligible to receive the $20,000 limit.

Combined with a previously announced new average salary of $128,000 and the ability to earn up to 200% of that salary in bonuses, a Walmart manager could earn as much as $404,000 a year.

“A Walmart store manager is running a multimillion-dollar business and managing hundreds of people, and it’s a far more complex job today than when I managed a store,” Furner said. “And we ask our managers to own their roles and act like owners. And now, they’ll literally be owners.’

A Walmart spokesperson has told NBC News there are about 4,600 Walmart stores, including more than 3,500 Supercenters.

The company has estimated that 75% of Walmart managers started out as hourly workers, suggesting many never graduated from college.

However, Walmart has more recently begun to look to college grads to help fill a reported slowing pipeline of managerial talent: In 2022, it launched a program for recent college graduates and current college students who are within 12 months of graduating. The program, for which Walmart associates are also eligible, allows the employees to ‘learn the ins and outs of Walmart’ and train to be salaried members of management at local stores.

Walmart also announced this month that the average hourly pay for U.S. workers was set to rise to $18 an hour.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

High-performing Walmart managers now have the ability to earn more than $400,000 a year after the retail giant announced it is offering the ability for some managers to earn $20,000 worth of stock grants starting in April.

In a video posted Monday on LinkedIn, Walmart U.S. President and CEO Brian Furner said the amount of the stock grant rewards would be based on the store formats where the managers are employed. Walmart Supercenter managers are eligible to receive the $20,000 limit.

Combined with a previously announced new average salary of $128,000 and the ability to earn up to 200% of that salary in bonuses, a Walmart manager could earn as much as $404,000 a year.

“A Walmart store manager is running a multimillion-dollar business and managing hundreds of people, and it’s a far more complex job today than when I managed a store,” Furner said. “And we ask our managers to own their roles and act like owners. And now, they’ll literally be owners.’

A Walmart spokesperson has told NBC News there are about 4,600 Walmart stores, including more than 3,500 Supercenters.

The company has estimated that 75% of Walmart managers started out as hourly workers, suggesting many never graduated from college.

However, Walmart has more recently begun to look to college grads to help fill a reported slowing pipeline of managerial talent: In 2022, it launched a program for recent college graduates and current college students who are within 12 months of graduating. The program, for which Walmart associates are also eligible, allows the employees to ‘learn the ins and outs of Walmart’ and train to be salaried members of management at local stores.

Walmart also announced this month that the average hourly pay for U.S. workers was set to rise to $18 an hour.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS