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The first trading week in December started on a positive note, with the S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq Composite ($COMPQ) notching new all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) pulled back slightly. Despite the small upmoves for most days, it wasn’t a quiet week.

Surprisingly, a flood of news from around the world didn’t impact equity performance much. The broader equity indexes continued their bullish trends despite South Korea briefly going under martial law, the collapse of the French government, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, and the higher-than-expected jobs number.

The stock market’s tone is bullish, and volatility is low. The Cboe Volatility Index ($VIX) is now below 13.

This StockCharts MarketCarpets snapshot below shows the S&P 500’s weekly performance. The heavily weighted mega-cap stocks fared well, but the best weekly performer was American Airlines (AAL), with a 19.83% gain.

FIGURE 1. STOCKCHARTS MARKETCARPETS TOOL FOR DECEMBER 6. Mega-cap stocks performed well this week. American Airlines was the top performer for the week.Image source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

One area to watch is the small caps. The S&P 600 Small Cap Index ($SML) broke above its trading range in early November. It then pulled back and bounced off its support level (see chart below).

FIGURE 2. DAILY CHART OF S&P 600 SMALL CAP INDEX ($SML). After breaking out of a trading range in early November, $SML pulled back and bounced off a support level. It then consolidated and broke below the consolidation range. Is it heading back to its support level?Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Since November 25, the index consolidated and broke below the consolidation pattern. $SML could be on its way back to the support level between 1440 and 1450. Generally, small caps start rising mid-December and continue into the next year. This is known as the “January Effect,” so it’s likely that $SML will bounce off that support and move higher. The market breadth indicators for $SML—percentage of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average and the advances vs. decliners are also declining. I’ll be carefully watching the price action in the next few weeks.

Solid Week For Crypto

This week was a big one for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin to US Dollar ($BTCUSD) closed above 100,000, a record close. The weekly chart below shows that $BTCUSD had a strong upward move after breaking out of its consolidation pattern from March to October.

FIGURE 3. BITCOIN SURGES. The cryptocurrency successfully closed above its 100,000 level on Friday.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) is very bullish. The rise in cryptocurrency prices shows investors’ risk appetite is pretty strong.

In Other News

The broader equity indexes may have been moving up in dribs and drabs, but some stocks saw significant gains, mainly due to earnings.

Shares of Docusign (DOCU) rose on much better-than-expected earnings. Docusign’s stock price closed up by 27.86% on Friday. Lululemon Athletica, Inc. (LULU) is another stock that saw a 15.90% rise in its stock price on stellar earnings. Other retail and software companies, such as Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), International Business Machines (IBM), American Express Co. (AXP), and Home Depot (HD), saw significant percentage gains in Friday’s trading.

Next week, we get earnings from Adobe Systems, Inc. (ADBE), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Oracle Corp. (ORCL), and Costco (COST). All these stocks saw healthy gains this week. Although a big chunk of earnings is behind us, there are some exciting ones on deck.

Bond Blues in Rear-View Mirror?

Treasury yields declined while bond prices rose a little. The weekly chart of the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) below shows TLT approaching its first resistance line. This happened before, which caught me off guard—a lesson learned. But now that bonds are creeping back up, I may give it another go.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF TLT. Bond prices are rising slowly but it may be a while before there are significant moves, given the low bond volatility.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

Bond volatility is low, as seen by the ICE MOVE Index in the lower panel. This suggests that bond price movement may be small, so this time, I might wait until the next resistance level, just above $102, before I go long.

Next week is light on economic data, but we will get the November CPI and PPI. There’s also the  December 18 Fed meeting. I’d wait for these events before making investment decisions on TLT.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed meeting is around 85%. It’s more important to hear what the Fed says about interest rate cuts for 2025. If it’s different from what the market has priced in, that will have more of an impact on the market.

End-of-Week Wrap-Up

S&P 500 up 0.96% for the week, at 6090.27, Dow Jones Industrial Average DOWN 0.60% for the week at 44,642.52; Nasdaq Composite up 3.34% for the week at 19,859.77$VIX down 5.48% for the week, closing at 12.77Best performing sector for the week: Consumer DiscretionaryWorst performing sector for the week: EnergyTop 5 Large Cap SCTR stocks: Applovin Corp. (APP); Palantir Technologies (PLTR); Reddit Inc. (RDDT); MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR); Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON)

On the Radar Next Week

November Consumer Price Index (CPI)November Producer Price Index (PPI)30-Year Mortgage RateEarnings from Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), Adobe (ADBE), Costco (COST)

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

TARRYTOWN, N.Y. – The New York Rangers found a taker for Jacob Trouba.

They’re shipping their captain to the Anaheim Ducks. In return, New York will receive defenseman Urho Vaakanainen and a 2025 fourth-round draft pick.

Most important, the Ducks will take on Trouba’s full $8 million salary cap charge for the rest of this season and the next. That jumps the Rangers’ available cap space to more than $8.5 million and puts them on pace to accrue over $27 million by the March 7 trade deadline, according to PuckPedia.

The deal was finalized Friday after the Blueshirts held the 30-year-old defenseman out of their morning skate in advance of their 7:30 p.m. home game against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

The situation had become increasingly untenable, with lingering awkwardness from when they attempted to trade Trouba over the summer. He knew his days in New York were numbered and he was unlikely to stick around for the final year of a seven-year contract he signed in 2019, with team president Chris Drury deciding to rip the band-aid off now.

All things Rangers: Latest New York Rangers news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

It’s believed that Trouba’s approval was required to complete a deal with the Ducks, who may have been on his 15-team no-trade list. Had he refused to do so, the Rangers likely would have placed him on waivers and thereby allowing any team to claim him.

Trouba’s hometown Detroit Red Wings were also involved in the trade talks, according to one person familiar with the situation who spoke on condition of anonymity, but they didn’t have the cap space to make it work unless the Rangers agreed to retain a portion of his salary.

Of course, the problems go well beyond one player. The sinking Rangers have lost six of their last seven games and are clinging to a wild-card spot by one point entering Friday, but their captain is the first to fall on the sword.

Coach Peter Laviolette said he and Drury ‘are together in our thoughts’ about moving on from Trouba.

‘It’s not meant to be a message,’ he said before the trade. ‘I think everybody’s understanding of where we’ve been for the last month and how we’ve played. We can’t continue down that road or we’ll find ourselves out of the playoffs. The best thing is we need to set a path that can move us back up in the standings.’

Trouba made his strong preference to stay in New York clear when trade talks were heating up over the summer, which multiple people in the league believe scared off some teams.

How Trouba being cast aside will play in a locker room that has felt increasingly fragile lately is a roll of the dice.

‘That’s a decision between the team and him, from what I’m understanding,’ center Mika Zibanejad said after the news that Trouba was being held out of the lineup. ‘As a player, as a teammate, as a friend and human being, we love him to death.’

Chris Kreider, who’s also been shopped by Drury in the last couple weeks, acknowledged that he has thoughts on the situation, but declined to comment.

‘Not today,’ he said. ‘We’ve got to focus on winning a hockey game.’

Others recognized it as a potential distraction but expressed their desire to try to block it out.

‘It’s hard not to react when you hear things,’ Zibanejad said. ‘But at the same time, I think a lot of us have been in the situation before where there’s been rumors and there’s been talks. There are really a lot of those things that are out of your control. The thing that we can control is our game, and the next game. And that’s what we have to do tonight.’

This story has been updated with new information.

Vincent Z. Mercogliano is the New York Rangers beat reporter for the USA TODAY Network.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Before Victor Wembanyama played a minute in the NBA last season, he was the preordained Rookie of the Year. Then, he proved it on the court. There wasn’t much debate last season about whom would win the award.

That’s not the case in 2024-25. The Rookie of the Year race is wide open, and that was predictable in June at the draft when the No. 1 pick wasn’t obvious. This season’s Rookie of the Year might not be a lottery pick and that would mark just the third time since 1985 that the Rookie of the Year was not a top-10 pick – Mark Jackson won the award in 1988 as the No. 18 pick and Malcolm Brogdon won it in 2017 as the 36th pick.

Early contenders this season, such as Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain (16th pick), Los Angeles Lakers forward Dalton Knecht (17th pick) and Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaylen Wells (39th pick), were not lottery picks.

USA TODAY’s NBA rookie power rankings:

NBA rookie rankings

(stats through Thursday, Dec. 5 games):

1. Philadelphia 76ers guard Jared McCain

McCain leads all rookies at 16.5 points per game and is doing so with decent efficiency at 46.8% from the field and 38.3% on 3-pointers. The Sixers have needed his production, too, with various injuries to Joel Embiid, Paul George and Tyrese Maxey. The No. 16 overall pick in the first round of the June draft, McCain also averages 2.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists and has two 30-point games, including 34 against Cleveland.

2. Los Angeles Lakers forward Dalton Knecht

There is value in taking a 23-year-old in the first round of the draft, and Knecht and the Lakers have found a mutually beneficial relationship. Knecht gets quality playing time, including nine starts, with a legitimate playoff contender. He averages 11.1 points and is proving himself a strong 3-point shooter, making 40.3% of his attempts from that distance (and 47.1% from the field). He scored a game-high 37 points (also the highest for a rookie this season) against Utah, making 9-of-12 3s.

3. Memphis Grizzlies forward Jaylen Wells

Wells played two years of Division II basketball at Sonoma State and one season at Washington State, and the Grizzlies selected him in the second round with the 39th overall pick. He has worked his way into the rotation at 24.9 minutes per game and is averaging 12.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists and shooting 45.7% from the field and 38.8% on 3s. He’s a necessary part of a 15-8 start for the Grizzlies, who are tied for second place in the West.

4. San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle

Though he has played mostly at the two-guard spot, Castle has also provided essential ball handling and play making ability to the roster. Castle has not been shy about slashing to the hoop and finishing. Yet, when defenses collapse, he has found Wembanyama and others. Castle trails only Bub Carrington (4.1) of the Wizards in assists per game (3.8) among rookies. He has started his last 15 games and is averaging 11.5 points over that span.

5. Atlanta Hawks forward Zaccharie Risacher

Risacher, 19, has become a far more consistent scorer over the last two weeks, thanks to a steadier 3-point shot. Through his first 14 games, Risacher hit just 22.4% of his 3s. Over his past nine games, he has made them at a 40% clip. Risacher is getting more comfortable on the defensive end, too. He ranks third, second and sixth among rookies in points (11.7), steals (0.9) and blocks (0.7) per game. He scored a season-best 33 points against New York on Nov. 6.

6. Memphis Grizzlies center Zach Edey

Edey is another valuable rookie contributor to the Grizzlies, and like Knecht, a player who spent at least four years playing college basketball. Per 36 minutes, Edey, who is sidelined with a sprained left ankle, averages 20.0 points, 12.4 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.5 steals and 1.4 assists and shoots 60% from the field, and though it’s limited attempts, he has made 60% on 3-pointers. With Edey on the court, the Grizzlies outscore opponents by 3.4 points.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Before George Pickens battles the Cleveland Browns and newest rival Greg Newsome II, he will have to overcome a hamstring injury first.

The Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver has thrived after the team made the quarterback change to Russell Wilson, playing some of the best football in his young career. Now as Pittsburgh marches toward the playoffs, Pickens has found himself on the injury report.

It was a surprise addition for the third-year receiver, something that will have fans and fantasy managers looking for answers heading into Sunday afternoon’s game.

Here is the latest on Pickens’ status ahead of Week 14:

NFL power rankings Week 14: Bills, Eagles, Lions make compelling case to be No. 1 team

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

George Pickens injury update

Pickens was a late addition to the injury report on Friday, listed as a limited participant with a hamstring injury. He is officially listed as questionable for Week 14.

Being added this late in the week is a cause for concern, especially when hamstring injuries are notoriously a pesky problem to navigate.

Pickens spoke to the media after practice and took the opportunity to renew his ongoing rivalry with Browns cornerback Newsome, who called Pickens a ‘fake tough guy’ following their Week 12 matchup on ‘Thursday Night Football.’

“I don’t even know who that is,” Pickens said when asked about Newsome on Friday.

Pickens’ status will be one to monitor. The Steelers will provide the ultimate clarity when the inactive reports drop 90 minutes before their 1 p.m. ET kickoff on Sunday.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers: Predictions, picks and odds for NFL Week 14 game

What is George Pickens’ injury?

Pickens has a hamstring injury. He was added to the team’s injury report on Friday and is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.

George Pickens stats

Pickens is primed to post his best season as a pro in his third year. The 23-year-old has caught 55 of 90 targets for 850 yards and three touchdowns in 12 games. In the six games since Wilson took over as starter, Pickens has seen a big boost in production. He’s averaging 4.8 catches and 81.2 yards per game, scoring all three of his touchdowns with Wilson under center.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

Conservatives on social media blasted former President Obama after his first speech since the presidential election in which he lamented polarization in politics. 

During a speech Thursday at the Obama Foundation’s Democracy Forum, Obama made the case that if ‘one side’ attempts to cement ‘a permanent grip on power’ through ‘suppressing votes,’ ‘politicizing’ the military or weaponizing the judiciary and criminal justice system to target opponents, ‘a line has been crossed.’

‘Pluralism is not about holding hands and singing ‘Kumbaya,’’ Obama said. ‘It is not about abandoning your convictions and folding when things get tough. It is about recognizing that, in a democracy, power comes from forging alliances and building coalitions and making room in those coalitions not only for the woke, but the waking.

‘Purity tests are not a recipe for long-term success.’

Obama’s speech quickly drew strong criticism from conservatives. 

‘It’s over for Obama,’ journalist Miranda Devine posted on X. ‘The spell is broken. Donald Trump vanquished him, Biden, Harris, the Bushes, the Cheneys. All of them, with a spring in his step.’

‘Ever since his last minute desperate smear of Trump with the ‘very fine people on both sides’ lie, Barack Obama has been slowing realizing his status as false prophet of the Democrat party is no more,’ conservative radio host Buck Sexton posted on X. 

‘Obama turned our politics into ‘if you disagree with me, you are a bad person,’’ Republican communicator Matt Whitlock posted on X. ‘Few people did more to pave the way for Trump. So he can take a seat.’

‘By voting in a democratic election, millions of people proved they hate democracy,’ author Jon Gabriel posted on X. ‘Yes, this Obama fellow is quite the intellect.’

‘Setting aside the unbelievable hypocrisy here, this is also the guy who’s launching a project to lessen our political divisions. Being the problem — way up on his high horse, looking down disappointedly at the unwashed masses — while publicly lamenting the problem is peak Obama,’ Fox News contributor Guy Benson posted on X.

Obama, in his remarks, insisted he is ‘convinced that if we want democracy as we understand it to survive,’ people must work for a renewed dedication to pluralist principles. 

‘Because the alternative is what we’ve seen here in the United States and in many democracies around the globe. Not just more gridlock. Not just public cynicism. But an increasing willingness’ among ‘politicians and their followers to violate democratic norms. To do anything they can to get their way. To use the power of the state to target critics and journalists and political rivals and to even resort to violence’ to obtain and retain power. 

Fox News Digital’s Alex Nitberg contributed to this report

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

President-elect Trump announced last week that he intends to nominate former White House aide and longtime ally Kash Patel to serve as FBI director, potentially making him the only U.S. president to have fired and installed two separate FBI directors in the middle of their 10-year terms. 

‘Kash is a brilliant lawyer, investigator, and ‘America First’ fighter who has spent his career exposing corruption, defending Justice, and protecting the American People,’ Trump said in a social media post announcing his intent to nominate Patel for FBI director. 

‘He played a pivotal role in uncovering the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, standing as an advocate for truth, accountability, and the Constitution.’

Patel is a close ally of the president-elect and served in the first Trump administration both as a deputy assistant and as the senior director for counterterrorism. He was endorsed on Friday by the National Police Association, which praised Patel’s record of ‘transparency’ and ‘accountability’ that it said makes him well-positioned to head up the nation’s sprawling law enforcement agency. 

Still, news of Trump’s plans to nominate Patel was met with criticism — if not shock — from others in the law enforcement community. 

That’s because replacing a sitting FBI director is a controversial move that breaks with the express purpose of the role, which, under post-Watergate laws, mandated that directors are nominated for 10-year terms: an express length of time designed to allow the directors — at least in theory — to operate outside political pressure or interference from a sitting president.

Trump sent shock waves through the law enforcement community in 2017 when he fired then-FBI Director James Comey, who at the time was less than four years into his 10-year term. Trump also personally selected current FBI Director Christopher Wray — whom he praised at the time as a ‘fierce guardian of the law and model of integrity’ — to replace him.

For Trump to install Patel as FBI director, two things must happen: Wray must exit the job, and Patel must earn Senate confirmation. 

How Wray will leave remains unclear. 

He could opt to voluntarily vacate the position on his own before Trump’s inauguration, though he has not yet said whether he plans to do so. If Wray does not voluntarily vacate his position, Trump could be the only president in U.S. history to have fired and installed two separate FBI directors.

Patel must also be confirmed by the Senate, though it is likely that the Republican-led chamber will move to approve him for the role.

Patel’s nomination has sparked early criticism from some Democrats ahead of his confirmation hearing, who have cited his previous vows to prosecute journalists and career officials at the Justice Department and FBI that he sees as being part of the ‘deep state.’ He has since attempted to clarify some of those remarks.

Only one other FBI director has been fired in U.S. history: William Sessions, a Reagan appointee who was widely disliked both for being an ineffective leader and for using his post to commandeer limousines and private government flights for personal business, among other things.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was bombarded with questions from reporters in the first televised press briefing since President Biden pardoned son Hunter Biden.

She also spoke to reporters earlier this week from Air Force One. 

‘The statement that he put out on Sunday when he made this decision to pardon his son, Hunter Biden, it’s in his own voice,’ Jean-Pierre said after she was asked about Hunter Biden’s pardon by an Associated Press reporter. 

‘I think it takes you through his thinking. And he did. He wrestled with this. He wrestled with this, and again, he said in his statement, in his own voice, that he made that decision this past weekend.’ 

The president and Jean-Pierre said unequivocally when asked over the summer that the president would not pardon his son. 

Jean-Pierre insisted ‘circumstances have changed.’

‘Republicans said they weren’t going to let up, weren’t going to stop,’ she said. ‘Recently announced Trump appointees for law enforcement have said on the campaign that they were out for retribution, and I think we should believe their words, right? We should believe what they say.’ 

She added that the president said in his statement that Hunter and the Biden family had been through ‘enough.’

‘And he wrestled with these circumstances, the change in circumstances, ultimately, and the combination of that … certainly led to the president changing his mind and issuing this pardon,’ she explained. 

But reporters continued to press her on the issue, asking whether the American people were owed an apology. Jean-Pierre appeared to evade the question, instead urging people to read the president’s statement. 

‘He wrestled with it,’ she reiterated. ‘He wrestled with it and made this decision. That’s what I can tell the American people.

‘I think the American people understand, and I think they understand how difficult this decision would be. And I would actually add, and I think it’s important to note here, as you’re asking me these questions — important questions to ask — that there was a poll, a U.S. Gov poll that came out that, some of you all reported on it.

‘And it said 64% of the American people agree with the pardon — 64% of the American people. So, we get a sense of where the American people are on this. Obviously, it’s one poll, but it gives you a little bit of insight. Sixty-four percent is nothing to sneeze at.’ 

She noted that some legal experts have said ‘no one would be criminally prosecuted with felony offenses with these facts,’ claiming Hunter Biden was politically targeted.

Hunter Biden was convicted on three felony charges related to illegally owning a gun while being a drug user. He also pleaded guilty in a federal tax case. 

She was also asked if the president has concerns about his credibility regarding the pardon and about allegations he ‘misled the public.’ 

‘Virtually no one would be criminally prosecuted with family offenses, with these facts. Whether it’s absent aggravated factors, similar charges are rarely brought,’ she said, again pointing to Biden’s statement.

One reporter also noted that Biden has received ‘swift criticism’ from members of his own party who call it a ‘setback,’ worrying that President-elect Trump and Republicans could use the pardon against them in the future. 

‘He’s going to focus on the American people,’ Jean-Pierre responded when asked if he felt the need to respond to Democratic criticism. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

“The market goes up the escalator and down the elevator.” This is a quote that one of my mentors, Ralph Acampora, shared with me when I visited him years ago at his farm in Minnesota. This market truism is based on the fact that volatility tends to remain low in bull market phases, and volatility tends to spike higher during bear phases.

Why does this tend to happen? Well, when everything is going well, and investors are optimistic, they tend to slowly accumulate positions on the way up. But when investors get nervous, do they calmly and rationally begin entering sell orders? They do not. Panic ensues, selling begets further selling, and what’s known as a “waterfall decline” quickly emerges on the charts.

A number of my recent podcast interviews have included discussions of the VIX and why volatility may be the most important metric to follow. My fellow StockCharts contributor Tom Bowley (a fan of the Carolina Panthers, a team with an equally painful record to my Cleveland Browns) told me it was at the top of the list of warning signs to watch for into early 2025.

Russell Rhoads, who literally wrote the book on trading the VIX, talked in detail about the relationship between the VIX and the S&P 500. In his experience, the key was to look for the SPX to rally on higher volatility, suggesting that panic was simmering under the surface.

Let’s review three charts to track the VIX to help us identify when this low-volatility uptrend may be nearing its final stages.

Low Volatility Implies Conditions are Favorable

Since popping to one of its highest levels in history back in August, the VIX spent September and October ranging between 15 and 23. In November, the VIX came off a short-term peak around 23 and progressed down into the low teens, where we find the VIX in early December.

Now we can see that the VIX is back down to where it spent the second half of 2023 through July 2024. A volatility reading in the low teens suggests the market is “going up the escalator” and indicates the most likely path remains higher. And based on my own experience, as well as conversations I highlighted above, a spike in volatility is usually a dangerous sign no matter what the S&P 500 itself is doing at that particular point.

Looking for some last minute gift ideas for investors on your holiday list? Our Recommended Reading List could help you provide the gift of more mindful investing techniques! For those on your list that are not big on the financial markets but also super important to you, check out the “Personal Development” section at the bottom!

Comparing Volatility Between Stocks and Bonds

While many investors are familiar with the VIX to track volatility in the equity markets, far fewer are aware of the ICE MOVE index which tracks volatility for bonds. Perhaps the bond markets are signaling uncertainty that is not yet reflected in the movement of equities?

We can see a generally positive correlation between these two data series, although October saw the MOVE surging much higher than the VIX. Post-election, however, both the MOVE and the VIX have dropped in a very similar fashion. For now, the two indexes reflect a low-volatility environment for their respective asset classes. This chart has a place of honor on my Market Misbehavior LIVE ChartList because I have often found the fixed income markets to serve as a leading indicator for stocks, especially when it comes to anticipating risk-off scenarios.

High Yield Spreads Remain Quite Narrow

We can also look at the high yield or “junk” bond market to determine how that particular area of the fixed income space is performing relative to stocks. I have found that high yield spreads, measuring the gap between yields on junk bonds versus risk-free Treasury bonds, often move in tandem with the VIX.

I have plotted the ICE BofA High Yield Index Option Adjusted Spread in the top panel using an inverted scale, followed by the VIX also on an inverted scale. The inverted scales are used here because of the traditional inverse relationship between these two data series and the S&P 500 index, shown at the bottom.

Note that high yield spreads are literally at their lowest levels in years, indicating that bond investors are perceiving a low-risk environment. So bond investors are saying low risk, equity investors are saying low risk, and that means this bull market is in great shape… for now.

While all three of these charts confirm the current low volatility uptrend phase for stocks, these charts will also likely provide us with clear signals when that low volatility bull phase is over. Using these charts as a guide, we can measure when the S&P 500 is perhaps ready to “take the elevator down” in a new correction phase!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

It usually doesn’t take too long into December for Major League Baseball squads to realize they’re not going to get what they want this holiday season.

And many clubs will come to this realization even before baseball’s Winter Meetings commence next week in Dallas.

Juan Soto’s looming decision on which half-billion dollar fortune to accept will leave a handful of losers in his place, and a set of dominos falling this week will prompt even more clubs with holes to fill, money to spend, perhaps prospect capital to burn into a greater sense of urgency.

And that’s when the trade market should truly start heating up.

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It’s not as easy as writing a check, though convincing a rival GM to love your prospects might be easier than convincing a superstar to take your money. With that, here are five players – four of them former All-Stars – whose names should soon be lighting up the text strings even more than they already have:

Alec Bohm, 3B, Phillies

Pretty wild ride in Philly for Bohm, who overcame significant second-year regression on both sides of the ball to improve his defense and eventually produce an All-Star first half in 2024, when he hit the break batting .295 with an .830 OPS.

Yet he declined to .251 and .681 in the second half, part of an overall Phillies regression, and was benched for a game of the National League Division Series. While Bohm has vacillated between inconsistent and occasionally dynamic, he’s also the most tradeable piece on a club with a half-dozen nine-figure contracts.

And the target only grew bigger with the feeling that Philadelphia, after backsliding from World Series runner-up to NLCS loser to NLDS exit, needs to shake things up.

Bohm holds promise for an acquiring team in that he has two years remaining before free agency, is still just 28 and is projected to earn not much more than $8 million next season.

And while pitching is always in demand, impact hitters are hardly plentiful, particularly ones that don’t come at a free agent premium. The Seattle Times reported that the Phillies requested one of the slugging-challenged Mariners’ All-Star starters, Logan Gilbert or George Kirby.

Nice try, although that starting point gives you an idea that the Phillies aren’t simply going to flip Bohm for the sake of doing so.

Crazy, but: Imagine Bohm and Alex Bregman simply switching places, with Philly, spurned by Soto, turning to the free agent third baseman for a fraction of the cost and shipping Bohm to Houston.

Garrett Crochet, LHP, White Sox

It’s time.

For all the Crochet discourse bandied about near the trade deadline, shipping off a dominant starter in his first full year in the role while coming off Tommy John surgery was too much of a storm in which to land this plane.

Yet the relative quiet of the off-season enables both buyer and seller to know what they’re getting: Two years of a 6-foot-6 lefty who averaged 13 strikeouts per nine innings last season and made 32 starts, though several were truncated to manage his innings increase.

The conditions are almost too perfect: With Chicago losing a record 121 games, the turnaround plan, to the extent that it exists, will take far longer than two years to execute. And the acquiring team will only have to pay Crochet an estimated $3 million this year plus whatever he’ll fetch in a final year of arbitration.

There’s so many upsides for the acquiring team: A two-year window with a frontline starter, the lack of commitment that comes with acquiring a big time free agent pitcher, and the first crack at signing Crochet long-term, if so inclined.

An impressive line of suitors that will begin with the losers of the Max Fried/Corbin Burnes derbies – think some combo of Boston, Baltimore, the New York clubs – along with perennial aggressive contenders should make for an excellent seller’s market.

Crazy, but: Would Baltimore move one of its theoretically untouchable young hitters for Crochet? It’s a tough convo worth having once the Orioles presumably miss out on the two elite free agent arms.

Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Cubs

Here’s the funny thing about Bellinger: He’s still a pretty good ballplayer!

Sure, it’s always a bad sign when a Scott Boras client opts into, rather than out of, a player option, as Bellinger did when he activated his $27.5 million salary for 2025. That’s largely the result of Bellinger’s WAR getting halved from 4.4 to 2.2 in 130 games, the same number of posts he made in 2023.

That the Cubs feel compelled to trade him is a Cubs Problem; a team with their revenues should not feel hamstrung to upgrade unless they rid themselves of Bellinger. They will pay their two best starting pitchers, Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele, around $20 million in 2025 and saved more than $6 million by non-tendering players like Patrick Wisdom and Mike Tauchman.

Yet a team that could seemingly bully its way to NL Central dominance through financial might is instead aiming for “flexibility” once again. Enter Bellinger, who rehabbed his career nicely in 2023, got caught up in the “Boras Four” game last spring but still represents only a maximum $52.5 million commitment, should he opt into his 2026 player option, too.

For that, an acquiring team would get a former MVP who still doesn’t turn 30 until July, can play all three outfield positions and first base at a Gold Glove level and, at least in 2023, provide 26 homers and 20 steals. You’d be acquiring Bellinger for his overall athleticism while hoping his hard-hit rate would improve from an icy 33% this past season.

Bellinger is well removed from his 2019 MVP season, but similarly detached from two ugly seasons in L.A. in which he battled back from a brutal combo of shoulder and calf injuries. At this stage in his career, his output does not move in linear fashion, and betting on an uptick – especially with the Cubs likely kicking in a few million dollars of salary relief – wouldn’t be a bad wager.

Crazy, but: Imagine Bellinger in the middle of Sacramento’s lineup, as the A’s feel compelled to take on salary in order to avoid recrimination from other franchises after years of stuffing revenue sharing into their pockets, er, stadium explorations.

Luis Arráez, INF, Padres

Already kind of insane that a three-time batting champion has played for three teams in three years. Hey, why not make it four in four?

The Padres took off after acquiring Arráez from Miami in May, playing .470 ball before his arrival and .602 thereafter to make the playoffs and nearly steal the NL West from L.A. Yet Arráez is due to make $14.6 million in arbitration, in his last season before free agency.

And San Diego still faces financial questions and roster imbalances not just in 2025 but going forward.

Determining Arráez’s worth on the market would be challenging. On one hand, he’s won three consecutive batting titles, never strikes out (29 whiffs last season, a 3.4% K rate) and provides a hitting ability that is far too rare in today’s game.

On the other hand, he’s limited defensively, making almost all his starts with the Padres at DH and first base, where his lack of power is a poor fit. As such, his WAR dropped from 4.9 in 2023 to 1.0.

Challenging fit, challenging trade. Yet there’s symbiosis out there, somewhere.

Crazy, but: Perhaps Seattle could reverse its offensive fortunes from punchless to potent by stacking Arráez in front of Julio Rodriguez, much like San Diego did.

Zack Littell, RHP, Rays

Oh, Littell doesn’t enter this winter as Pitcher Most Likely To Be Traded. That honor probably goes to Arizona left-hander Jordan Montgomery, who took a verbal broadside from owner Ken Kendrick that was thoroughly unwarranted.

Yet Littell and closer Pete Fairbanks are the lone Rays pitchers whose service time begins with a 5.-something, which historically means you may not be long for Tampa Bay. Lefty Shane McClanahan is back from Tommy John surgery, and Shane Baz returned from that procedure last year, with youngsters Ryan Pepiot and Taj Bradley likely nudging Littell toward a swingman role.

As teams aim to workshop short relievers into starters – with Clay Holmes and Jeff Hoffman the latest to potentially go through that transition – why not acquire a guy who’s already pulled it off?

Littell trucked through 29 starts last year, upping his innings count from 90 to 156 ⅓ while trimming his ERA from 4.10 to 3.63 and his FIP from 4.02 to 3.88. While Littell has the skill set to fill the sort of versatile and fungible role the Rays love to have on their staff, that may be exceeded only by their desire to backfill their 40-man roster with controllable talent by trading impending free agents.

Once again, there will be plenty of second runner-ups in the Fried-Burnes-Jack Flaherty races. But there’s no shortage of ways to fill out a rotation.

Crazy, but: Imagine a world where the Mets break all salary records to reel in Juan Soto – and make backfilling their rotation with guys like Littell an annual ritual.

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The College Football Playoff can do this the hard way or the easy way.

The selection committee is hoping for a paint-by-numbers Sunday that sees no changes from the penultimate rankings and, most critically, avoids any major outrage over the debut 12-team bracket.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday night, committee chairman Warde Manuel implied teams already in the clubhouse —such as Ohio State, Tennessee and Indiana — won’t be rearranged after conference championship weekend, though SMU could move up the rankings by beating Clemson to win the ACC.

But chaos is always lurking around the corner. While there are only so many scenarios that could unfold, the potential for a predictable bracket would be upended by one or more upsets on Friday and Saturday.

WEEKEND FORECAST: Our expert picks for Week 15 championship games

Here are five scenarios still on the table leading into the final rankings and playoff matchups:

Scenario No. 1: No upsets, no debates

The committee is given the gift of an all-chalk weekend that includes wins by Oregon, Texas, SMU, Arizona State and Boise State. In this case, the committee can cut and paste the names from Tuesday night’s projected bracket and be done in time for an early brunch on Sunday morning.

One notable change is Arizona State rising to No. 11 after beating Iowa State, bumping Alabama down to No. 12. Penn State’s loss drops the Nittany Lions one spot and swaps in Notre Dame as the No. 5 seed. Georgia stays at No. 7 despite losing to Texas since the Bulldogs convincingly won the regular-season matchup in Austin.

Overall, though, this is the same 12-team field as in the penultimate rankings.

Scenario No. 2: UNLV knocks off Boise State

UNLV would then become the Group of Five representative. The fallout from this upset would be seen in seeding, specifically in the four conference champions to receive an opening-round bye.

With the Broncos out, the Big 12 champion moves into the top four – we’ll say Arizona State for this example, though the same would apply if Iowa State wins on Saturday.

Scenario No. 3: Clemson beats SMU

This is the doomsday scenario for the committee, since a Clemson win would force a decision between two-loss SMU and three-loss Alabama. At this point, this is the only scenario that could keep the Crimson Tide out of the playoff.

The Mustangs argument rests on just two losses, both to ranked teams; a nine-game winning streak featuring six wins against bowl teams; only two Power Four wins decided by single digits; and being one of two Power Four teams, along with Oregon, to go unbeaten in conference play.

Alabama’s case rests on beating Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri and LSU. Being Alabama also helps.

While impossible to predict with any certainty, here’s guessing the 12-team committee continues a tradition set during the four-team era and gives the Crimson Tide the benefit of the doubt.

Scenario No. 4: Wins by Penn State and Georgia

This would shake up the playoff’s seating chart with a trickledown impact on which teams earn a home game in the opening round.

The Nittany Lions would vault to the No. 1 overall seed. There would be a debate between SMU and Georgia for the No. 2 seed; we’ll give that edge to Georgia based on the Bulldogs’ wins and overall strength of schedule.

Oregon would land at No. 5 and Texas at No. 6, bumping Notre Dame into an in-state matchup with No. 10 Indiana. Ohio State would continue to host Tennessee.

Scenario No. 5: Higher-ranked seeds go down

OK, let’s imagine that Penn State beats Oregon, Georgia beats Texas, Clemson beats SMU and UNLV tops Boise State. That would result in a top four of the Nittany Lions, Bulldogs, Tigers and Rebels.

The Ducks, Longhorns, Irish and Buckeyes would host the opening round. Oregon would play Alabama, Texas would face Arizona State and the Irish and Buckeyes would continue to match with the Hoosiers and Volunteers, respectively.

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