The penultimate week of the NFL regular season featured a Saturday tripleheader that showcased the Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots, Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals and ended with the Arizona Cardinals at the Los Angeles Rams in the finale.

Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert and the Chargers earned a playoff berth with a win. The Bengals kept their playoff hopes alive by beating the Broncos in overtime. And the Rams are on the cusp of an NFC West title after winning in front for their home fans at SoFi Stadium.

USA TODAY Sport assesses the winners and losers from Saturday’s three NFL games:

WINNERS

Justin Herbert

Herbert threw for 281 yards and a season-high three touchdowns in a 40-7 demolition of the Patriots.

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During the contest, Herbert surpassed Hall of Fame QB Peyton Manning to become the NFL player with the most passing yards through five seasons. The Chargers quarterback has amassed 20,747 passing yards in his five-year career.

Saturday’s win earned Herbert his second career playoff appearance (he’s 0-1).

Jim Harbaugh

Harbaugh’s turned around programs at all his coaching stops. The head coach guided Stanford out of college football purgatory, turning the Cardinal into a Pac-10 power. He led the 49ers to a 44-19-1 record during four regular seasons and made one Super Bowl appearance. Then he turned Michigan’s football program around and helped the Wolverines win the 2023 national championship. Now, he’s led the Chargers to a playoff appearance in his first year at the helm.

Harbaugh’s Chargers punished the Patriots to advance to the postseason for just the fourth time since 2010. Fans at Gillette Stadium booed the Patriots as time expired.

It’ll be Harbaugh’s fourth time in the NFL playoffs. He went to the playoffs three times as the 49ers’ head coach, reaching the NFC title game every time.

Tee Higgins

Higgins, a free agent-to-be playing on the franchise tag, proved he’s worth top wide receiver money.

The Bengals wide receiver had his way with the Broncos’ secondary, picking them apart on a variety of intermediate routes. He tallied a career-high three touchdowns, doing most of his damage against helpless Broncos cornerback Riley Moss.

Higgins hauled in a 31-yard reception on a go-route in overtime to put the Bengals on Denver’s 3-yard line. On the ensuing play, Higgins caught the game-winning touchdown on an out route.

He produced 11 catches, 131 yards and a touchdown hat trick in the overtime win. He was the player of Saturday.

Higgins, Ja’Marr Chase and Mike Gesicki combined for 30 catches and 319 of Joe Burrow’s 412 passing yards.

Bengals’ playoff hopes

A four-game winning streak kept the Bengals’ slim playoff hopes alive. Cincinnati needs the Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins to lose; they need to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh next week; and need the Broncos to fall versus the Kansas City Chiefs next week.

The Bengals are the most dangerous team currently outside of the playoffs … yet they need the most help to get in.

Ahkello Witherspoon

The Rams cornerback caught the game-sealing interception with under 45 seconds remaining.

Kyler Murray’s pass deflected off tight end Trey McBride in the end zone. The ball hung in the air seemingly forever, and Witherspoon dove and got it.

Witherspoon also added six tackles and two pass deflections.

LOSERS

Patriots’ trick play

The Patriots tried to get cute midway through the second quarter and ran a toss reverse sweep. The timing of the play was awful. Drake Maye’s toss landed on the ground, and it was scooped up by Chargers safety Derwin James.

Los Angeles’ offense scored a touchdown off the turnover.

New England came into Week 17 with a minus-9 turnover differential, which ranked 27th in the NFL. The Patriots lost the turnover battle 1-0 against the Chargers.

The Patriots were also 0-for-3 on fourth downs.

Riley Moss

Moss had a game-high 14 tackles versus the Bengals, but that’s because Cincinnati picked on him all game.  

The Broncos cornerback couldn’t cover Higgins at all. Per Next Gen Stats, Moss allowed seven catches for 101 yards and two touchdowns on 25 coverage snaps against Higgins, including the game-winning touchdown.

Broncos’ overtime offense

Bo Nix and Marvin Mims Jr. connected on a spectacular touchdown to force overtime. Denver’s overtime performance, however, was the antithesis of spectacular.

Nix and the Broncos’ offense couldn’t take advantage of a missed 33-yard field goal by Bengals kicker Cade York, going three-and-out for the second consecutive series.

Nix missed a couple of passes he should’ve completed and the Broncos couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Denver gained 6 yards on six plays in overtime.

Denver’s inability to move the football in OT cost it the game.

Seahawks

The Rams have a good chance to clinch the NFC West upon the conclusion of Week 17 due to the strength of victory tiebreaker. They’ll be rooting for the Bills, Browns, Vikings, Commanders and 49ers this weekend.

Next week’s game versus Seattle is meaningless if the Rams clinch via the strength of victory tiebreaker.

The Los Angeles Rams began the season slowly, jumping out to just a 1-4 record over the first five weeks.

The Rams are in control of their own destiny heading into Week 18, but they may not even need to win their final game to clinch the division. Depending on the results of the rest of the Week 17 games, Los Angeles may already be guaranteed passage to the NFL playoffs as the NFC West champions.

What do the Rams need to have happen to win the NFC West? Here’s what to know about their playoff chances after their win over the Cardinals.

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Rams playoff chances

The Rams have better than a 99% chance to make the playoffs after their win over the Cardinals, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. They also have a 99% chance to win the NFC West over the Seattle Seahawks.

Rams playoff odds

Oddsmakers agree with The Athletic’s assessment of the Rams’ postseason chances. Sportsbooks are not listing Los Angeles’ postseason odds or odds to win the NFC West entering Week 17’s Sunday action.

That means the books recognize the Rams are nearly locked into a playoff spot – and likely the NFC West title.

What needs to happen for Rams to make playoffs?

The Rams can make it into the playoffs in Week 17 if they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Seahawks. That would require three of the following teams to win their games:

Buffalo Bills
Cleveland Browns
Minnesota Vikings
San Francisco 49ers
Washington Commanders

The Rams can also clinch the NFC West if two of the above teams win and one tie.

If the Rams fail to clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can clinch the division in Week 18 with any of the following results:

Rams win over Seahawks;
Rams tie with Seahawks;
Rams lose to Seahawks, win strength of victory tiebreaker based on Week 18 results.

Given this, the Rams will likely clinch the NFC West, whether in Week 17 or Week 18.

What is the strength of victory tiebreaker?

The NFL’s strength of victory tiebreaker represents the combined record of the opponents a team has beaten. It is the fifth tiebreaker used by the league, behind head-to-head record, division games, common games and conference games.

This matters because the Rams and Seahawks would see all their first four tiebreakers even if Seattle beats Los Angeles in Week 18. However, if the Rams clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker, they will be guaranteed to finish ahead of the Seahawks regardless of the Week 18 result, as Los Angeles will finish with a record that is as good as or better than Seattle’s.

Below is a look at the Rams and Seahawks’ strength of victory entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29:

Rams: .444
Seahawks: .393

Rams remaining schedule

If the Rams don’t clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can render it meaningless in Week 18 by beating the Seahawks head-to-head. The division rivals are facing off in Week 18.

Los Angeles beat Seattle 26-20 in overtime in their first meeting of the season in Week 9.

Below is the Rams’ remaining schedule:

Week 18: vs. Seattle Seahawks (9-7)

Rams potential playoff opponents

If the Rams win the NFC West, they will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC. That will line them up with a tough matchup with one of the following opponents:

Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders

The Rams have the inside track to the No. 3 seed and can wrap it up with a win. That would line them up to face the No. 6 seed, which projects to be the Packers entering Week 17.

NFL playoff picture Week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

The ‘Dirty Birds’ hope to soar to a postseason spot in 2024.

Will the Falcons be successful in their quest to extend their season or will their wings be clipped with a rookie quarterback, Michael Penix Jr., under center?

Atlanta has spiraled for a good portion of the season, plagued by an aging Kirk Cousins, who hasn’t regained his footing following an Achilles injury last year. Eventually benched for Penix, the Falcons remain one of the NFL’s biggest mysteries.

They have a talented offense but are an average unit. Despite their issues, they are two weeks away from possibly making the postseason in 2024.

Here’s a look at how the Falcons can go dancing, NFL style, in 2024.

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Falcons playoff chances

The Falcons have a 45% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That puts them behind the division rival Buccaneers, who enter Week 17 with a 60% chance of making the playoffs and a 55% chance of winning the NFC South.

Falcons playoff odds

Despite the models projecting Atlanta as postseason underdogs, BetMGM says otherwise. They list the Falcons as -140 favorites to win the NFC South, probably largely thanks to their tiebreaker advantage over Tampa. Those odds translate to a 58.3% implied probability, creating some value on the Buccaneers at +115 considering how the models view them.

The Falcons’ only path to the playoffs is by winning the division. They control their own destiny, but they face a massive Week 17 game that could determine whether Atlanta can extend its season.

What needs to happen for Falcons to make playoffs?

The Falcons have a fairly simple task ahead of them because they control their destiny. Here’s how Atlanta can get to the playoffs.

Clinch playoff spot in Week 17 with win (at Commanders) and Buccaneers’ loss (vs. Panthers)
Win their last two games (if Buccaneers win in Week 17)

Week 17: at Commanders
Week 18: vs. Panthers

However, things get dicey with a Falcons loss in Week 17. If the Bucs were to win over the Panthers, Atlanta would hand control of the division back to Tampa with one week to go. Under that scenario, here is how Atlanta can make the postseason in Week 18:

Week 18: Falcons win (vs. Panthers) and Buccaneers loss (vs. Saints)

The Falcons cannot make the playoffs as a wild card team.

Falcons remaining schedule

The Falcons’ path to the playoffs is clear but tough. They face a Commanders team that has yet to clinch a playoff spot, so they have no incentive to take it easy in Week 17. If Atlanta can notch a win on Sunday night, they’ll be in prime position to clinch next week.

However, things could be complicated with Penix making his second and third career starts over the next two weeks. Here’s how the Falcons schedule lines up:

Week 17: at Washington Commanders (10-5)
Week 18: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-11)

Buccaneers remaining schedule

After handing over control of the division with a loss last week, the Buccaneers don’t have to worry about a major challenge in the last two games. Division games can be tricky, but both matchups are winnable at home against the Panthers and Saints.

The simplest path would be for Tampa to win out and Atlanta to drop one game. Here’s how the schedule looks:

Week 17: vs. Carolina Panthers (4-11)
Week 18: vs. New Orleans Saints (5-10)

Falcons potential playoff opponents

The Falcons can be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the 2024 NFL playoffs. That leaves them with a few possible opponents for the postseason, depending on how the results shake out. Here’s who they could face:

Minnesota Vikings
Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers
Washington Commanders

NFL playoff picture Week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

For the Cincinnati Bengals, it’s simply Tee little, Tee late.

The Stripes ran their winning streak to four Saturday, surviving the fading Denver Broncos 30-24 – thanks to three touchdown catches by blossoming wideout Tee Higgins, including a 3-yarder with 67 seconds left in overtime – in a game that was both wildly entertaining and vexing at times to watch from a strategic standpoint. Quarterback Joe Burrow’s brilliance – burnished by the heroics of Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, the league’s premier wideout tandem – was a reminder that, for football fans, seeing Cincy qualify for the playoffs a third time in four seasons would be a treat.

‘I don’t know that anybody can stand on the field and watch Joe Burrow and say he’s not the best player in the world,” Bengals coach Zac Taylor said after Saturday’s victory, when his superstar QB passed for 412 yards and three TDs.

“The clearest thing I can say is, I would not trade Joe Burrow for any player in the universe.”

That might be exactly why other NFL teams – and certainly those that remain Super Bowl-viable – don’t want to see Burrow and Co. get a shot at the Lombardi Trophy this season, which is why Saturday’s drama almost certainly did nothing more than deprive Cincinnati of postseason euthanasia.

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Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have a 13% chance to snatch the AFC’s final wild-card berth. But these five reasons suggest that analytical assessment might be overly optimistic and that this might be a fairy tale contained to December:

The Bengals still have to beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh

The only component remaining in Cincinnati’s narrow playoff path that it can control is winning at Acrisure Stadium in Week 18. The Steelers have beaten the Bengals three straight and four of the past five. They’ve also taken six of the past eight in Pittsburgh. Russell Wilson looked like a man in his prime while passing for 414 yards and three touchdowns in the Steelers’ 44-38 triumph at Paycor Stadium four weeks ago.

And it’s not like Pittsburgh, which has already punched its playoff ticket, can afford to mail it in during the regular-season finale – the team is still trying to win the AFC North and the privilege of hosting a postseason game at the confluence of the Three Rivers. The Steelers have lost three in a row but will have had 11 days to prepare for Cincinnati while trying to get back into coach Mike Tomlin’s good graces after he lamented a “junior varsity” effort that “sucked” during his team’s 29-10 Christmas Day defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Sure, the Bengals are certainly capable of clubbing their division rivals on the road. But it’s a semi-high bar and, unfortunately for them, only part of the formula they need to advance.

“We know we can hang with anybody, we’ve proven that this year,” Burrow said Saturday, his game-winning shot to Higgins the quarterback’s league-leading 42nd TD pass.

“We’ve played every single team close – it’s just about making the plays down the stretch to win those games. Today we did, last four weeks we have, and we’ve got to continue to do it.”

The Colts have to lose at least once

Based on opposition winning percentage, Indianapolis owns the league’s easiest remaining schedule (Giants, Jaguars). But maybe the Bengals have already caught a break now that Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has been ruled out of Sunday’s game at New York. Still … it’s the Giants.

The Dolphins have to lose at least once

Based on opposition winning percentage, Miami owns the league’s sixth-easiest remaining schedule (Browns, Jets). But maybe the Bengals have already caught a break now that Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday’s game at Cleveland. Still … it’s the Browns.

NFL PLAYOFF PICTURE: Where things stand for Cincinnati

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Cincinnati’s internal issues

Taylor lauded his defense’s two stops against the Broncos in overtime. But this is a unit that began the day having surrendered the fifth-most points and fifth-most yards in the league, allowed Denver rookie Bo Nix to complete two game-tying fourth-quarter touchdown passes and has consistently undermined what Burrow deemed as the league’s best offense.

And there are issues there, too – Burrow sacked seven times Saturday, starting running back Chase Brown suffering a fourth-quarter ankle injury, and Taylor’s clock management at the end of regulation leaving something to be desired.

Talented as this team is, it’s always found ways to remain without a championship 56 years into its existence.

The Broncos have to lose at Kansas City

This might be the real kicker … and I don’t mean Cade York.

Denver hosts the reigning champs in Week 18 and needs a win or tie to reach postseason for the first time since Peyton Manning retired as a champion nine years ago following Super Bowl 50. These are also the same Chiefs who needed a blocked field goal on the final play at Arrowhead in Week 10 to outlast the Broncos 16-14.

Sort of.

After blast-furnacing the Steelers, K.C. already owns the No. 1 seed. There’s virtually no incentive for them to play Patrick Mahomes or Travis Kelce or Chris Jones or DeAndre Hopkins – the list goes on. Not only that, but few teams have given Mahomes trouble the way the Bengals have over the years, most notably an overtime win at Kansas City in the 2021 AFC championship game. The Chiefs don’t need that kind of thorn in their playoff bracket – especially since they’d host Cincinnati in their postseason opener if the now-scalding Bengals get into the field and win their wild-card matchup (which would probably be against the Bills in Buffalo).

If only the Bengals hadn’t somehow managed to lose to the Jacoby Brissett-led New England Patriots on opening day amid a 1-4 start that could otherwise be explained away to some degree. If only Higgins, their franchise player in 2024 and a man who’s likely to get a much larger payday in 2025 – he has 10 touchdowns in the past nine games –hadn’t missed five weeks while injured.

“We’ve known we’ve had a good football team all along, and those games are disappointing that we came up short. It didn’t change our process. It didn’t change what our guys believed in,” Taylor said Saturday.

“We still believed in what we were doing.”

Just hard to believe now that it will ultimately be sufficient for a team that might finally be playing well enough to win it all – if Tee late to matter.

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable.)

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat makes it increasingly likely the Lions and Vikings will be playing for all the important regular-season marbles in Week 18. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco on Monday night combined with a Minnesota loss to Green Bay. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings

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x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: In Week 16, they lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage. Also, concussed QB Jalen Hurts won’t play this Sunday. But the Eagles are still just one win or Commanders loss from locking up the division and at least the No. 2 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West leaders: Saturday night’s escape from Arizona could mean a division title if the strength-of-victory tiebreaker unfolds LA’s way Sunday. ‘Honestly, I have no idea,’ WR Puka Nacua said of the clinching scenario when asked on NFL Network after the triumph. ‘They said we had a game at SoFi Stadium Saturday night, so that’s what I showed up for.’ Barring that, there’s a Week 18 meeting against Seattle that could still decide matters. Neither the Rams nor Seahawks have a pathway to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came when the Bucs – they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta – lost at Dallas in Week 16. The Falcons can win the division this Sunday with another victory and another Tampa Bay loss. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their own potentially high-yield fate – win out, and the NFC North and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions

x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … though Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But given Packers are guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key starters over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: Despite beating the Eagles, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth in Week 16 – but did remain alive in the NFC East. A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance. A loss could be highly problematic in the tiebreaker space as it would open an alternate avenue for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), in the hunt: If they and the Rams wind up 10-7, which would require a Seahawks win at LA in Week 18, the undetermined strength-of-victory tiebreaker will prove pivotal, likely in LA’s favor. But that assumes the Seahawks are not eliminated Sunday first after the Rams prevailed over the Cardinals. Remaining schedule: at Rams

9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the hunt: The Bucs could see their aspirations to keep the NFC South throne die this weekend. However, if Atlanta beats Washington, then Tampa Bay has a more favorable shot at the NFC’s final wild-card slot. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

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AFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and really two-plus weeks off in actuality depending on whom they want to play in what’s now a meaningless Week 18 contest for the champs. Remaining schedule: at Broncos, BYE

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East champions: Now out of the running for the No. 1 seed, finishing second in the conference should still have meaning given the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. A win would also ensure Buffalo wouldn’t have to go on the road for a playoff game unless the AFC championship is staged in Kansas City. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Patriots

x – 3. Baltimore Ravens (11-5), AFC North leaders: Catching fire? Probably an understatement. The Steelers’ loss before Baltimore’s Christmas kickoff vaulted the Ravens atop the division, and their dominant win over Houston keeps them there. A win or tie in Week 18 clinches it. Remaining schedule: vs. Browns

y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year, however Wednesday’s loss locked them into the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston, against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: at Titans

x – 5. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6), wild card No. 1: That’s three losses in a row, Wednesday’s flat performance against K.C. costing them first place in the AFC North. However they can capture the divisional title by winning in Week 18 if Baltimore also loses to Cleveland. Remaining schedule: vs. Bengals

x – 6. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card No. 2: Saturday’s rout of the Patriots locked Bolts into the field and ensures Jim Harbaugh has been a playoff participant in four of his five NFL seasons as a head coach. Yet, having lost to the Ravens and Steelers earlier this season, the Chargers will most likely be the sixth seed – and probably head to Baltimore or Pittsburgh for a rematch. Remaining schedule: at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve had win-and-in scenarios in their past two games and lost both times. Still, one more victory – or tie – will advance Denver to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs – which could be a real advantage for Denver, which can do no better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs

8. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), in the hunt: Still alive thanks to a four-game winning streak, including Saturday’s overtime thriller against Denver. Though they appear like the best team outside the postseason field, the Bengals still need the most help to get in, including at least one loss by both the Colts and Dolphins. Cincinnati must also beat Pittsburgh in Week 18 and hope Denver loses again. Though the Bengals jumped Indy and Miami on Saturday, both hold tiebreakers that would move them past Cincinnati if they continue winning. Remaining schedule: at Steelers

9. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning in Week 16 and with a soft schedule on the way out. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) and Cincinnati’s (5-6). Indianapolis clinches if it winds up in a three- or four-way tie with teams all possessing 9-8 records. A two-way tie with Denver would mean the Broncos advance due to their Week 15 win over the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars

10. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning in Week 16 and with a soft schedule on the way out. They advance if tied with any combination of 9-8 teams that does not include the Colts. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17

Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:

Win + Minnesota loss

Atlanta clinches NFC South with:

Win + Tampa Bay loss

Philadelphia clinches NFC East with:

Win or tie
Washington loss or tie

Los Angeles Rams clinch NFC West with:

Must clinch strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle on Sunday

(Note: Rams secure strength-of-victory tiebreaker with 2½ or more wins from the following teams: Buffalo, Cleveland, Minnesota, San Francisco and Washington. A tie equates to a half-win in this formula.)

Washington clinches playoff berth with:

Win or tie
Tampa Bay loss or tie

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18 (incomplete)

Baltimore clinches AFC North with:

Win or tie

Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:

Win + Baltimore loss

Denver clinches playoff berth with:

Win or tie

NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2024

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division

z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye

***

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis

The Miami Dolphins have had to battle through injuries to their star quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, all season long, and another potential injury could have him miss his fifth game of the season.

Tagovailoa’s status for today’s game against the Cleveland Browns has yet to be determined. Speculation has run rampant about the quarterback’s hip injury.

Here’s the latest on Tua before Sunday’s kickoff against the Browns.

All things Dolphins: Latest Miami Dolphins news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

Tua Tagovailoa injury update

He had been a limited participant in practice all week before Miami downgraded him to doubtful for Sunday’s clash with the Browns. He had previously held a questionable designation before Saturday’s downgrade.

Dolphins QB depth chart

Miami’s depth on offense has been tested all season. Here’s a look at how the quarterback room breaks down if Tua is out:

Tyler Huntley
Skylar Thompson

The veteran Huntley will assume the QB1 spot.

Tua missed four games earlier this season due to a concussion he suffered in Week 2. The Dolphins went 1-3 in those games and are 6-5 in games with their starting quarterback.

Dolphins remaining schedule

Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:

Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)

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This story has been updated with new information

The Indianapolis Colts have endured an up-and-down second season under coach Shane Steichen’s leadership, but they enter Week 17 with a legitimate chance to make a playoff run.

Such a run seemed unlikely when the Colts lost head-to-head to the Denver Broncos in a critical Week 15 matchup, dropping Indianapolis to 6-8. However, an easier end-of-season schedule has positioned the Colts among the top challengers for the AFC’s No. 7 seed.

The Colts have little room for error in their quest for the playoffs. They also need help to make it to the postseason for the first time since 2020.

Just how narrow is Indianapolis’ path to the postseason? Here’s a look at the Colts’ playoff chances entering their Week 17 contest.

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Colts playoff chances

The Colts have an 18% chance to make the playoffs before Sunday of Week 17, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the highest chance among the three teams positioned to battle the Broncos for the AFC’s No. 7 seed (the Miami Dolphins and Cincinnati Bengals have 16% and 7% chances respectively).

Colts playoff odds

Oddsmakers are slightly more pessimistic about the Colts’ postseason chances. DraftKings Sportsbook lists Indianapolis with +650 odds to make the postseason entering Week 17’s Sunday action. That gives the Colts an implied probability of 13.33% to qualify for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for Colts to make playoffs?

The Colts need two things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

The Colts must win their final two games.
The Dolphins to win their final two games (at Browns, at Jets) and/or the Bengals to win in Week 18 (at Steelers).
The Broncos must lose in Week 18 to the Kansas City Chiefs.

That represents the Colts’ only path to postseason contention, as the Houston Texans already wrapped up the AFC South by virtue of their nine wins and two head-to-head victories over the Colts.

The Colts cannot overtake the Broncos unless there is at least three-way tie for the No. 7 seed in the AFC, as Denver beat Indianapolis head-to-head in Week 15. As such, Indianapolis needs either the Dolphins or Bengals to win out to create the three- or four-way tie that would allow the Colts into the playoffs.

Colts remaining schedule

The good news for Colts fans? Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL, per Tankathon. They are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the season’s final two weeks.

The Colts will be favored in both of those games. That will give them a chance to win out and put pressure on the Broncos to win in a tough Week 18 matchup.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:

Week 17: at New York Giants (2-13)
Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Indianapolis faithful is that the Broncos have a difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are facing the 15-1 Chiefs in the final week of the season. Sean Payton’s squad will have to bring its A-game to knock off Kansas City after failing to clinch a playoff berth in a 30-24 Week 17 loss to the Bengals.

That said, the Chiefs have already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and could rest their starters in that game. If Patrick Mahomes and Co. don’t play in that contest or only play in part, that could allow Denver an easier path toward clinching the AFC’s No. 7 seed.

Will Andy Reid prioritize rest or view Week 18 as a chance to knock a divisional rival out of the playoffs? The answer to that question may determine whether the Colts have a legitimate chance to make the postseason.

Below is a full look at Denver’s schedule:

Week 18: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the season’s final two weeks. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide, entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.

Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:

Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)

Bengals remaining schedule

The Bengals already won their Week 17 game against the Broncos. They need to beat another potential playoff team, the Steelers, in Week 18 to open the door for the Colts to get into the playoffs.

Below is a full look at Cincinnati’s schedule:

Week 18: at Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

Colts potential playoff opponents

If the Colts make the NFL playoffs, they can only be the No. 7 seed. That leaves them with two potential first-round opponents. They are as follows:

Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens

The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the New York Jets.

AFC playoff picture Week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

However, the Dolphins have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to emerge as a potential wild-card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason isn’t easy, but if Mike McDaniel’s squad can keep winning, it might have a chance to go to the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Miami isn’t in control of its own destiny. To make the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win out and receive help from several teams.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their postseason chances as the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season unfold.

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Dolphins playoff chances

The Dolphins have a 16% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the second-lowest chance among the four AFC teams vying for the conference’s No. 7 seed.

Dolphins playoff odds

The Athletic’s model is much more optimistic about the Dolphins’ chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami with +1600 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Dolphins an implied probability of just 5.88% to qualify for the playoffs.

What needs to happen for Dolphins to make playoffs?

The Dolphins need three things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

The Dolphins must win their final two games;
The Denver Broncos must lose to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18;
The Indianapolis Colts must lose or tie one of their final two games;

That represents the Dolphins’ only path to a postseason appearance.

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the final two weeks of the season. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.

However, both of Miami’s games are on the road in outdoor stadiums. That could hurt the team’s chances of winning if the weather is inclement.

The team is also expected to be without Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, so the team will need backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to guide it to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race.

Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:

Week 17: at Cleveland Browns (3-12)
Week 18: at New York Jets (4-11)

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to close out the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a tightly contested 16-14 Week 10 matchup.

That said, it isn’t clear whether the Chiefs – who clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers – will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver’s path to a playoff-clinching win a bit easier.

As such, Miami’s postseason fate may ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Below is a look at Denver’s schedule:

Week 18: vs. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1)

Colts remaining schedule

Here’s where things get problematic for the Dolphins. They need the Colts to lose, but Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

The Colts are playing against the New York Giants and Jacksonville Jaguars, who have a combined 5-25 record, over the final two weeks of the season. They will be favored in both of those games despite having to start backup quarterback Joe Flacco against the Giants with Anthony Richardson (back, foot) injured.

So, unless the Colts lose to one of the NFL’s worst teams, the Dolphins won’t be able to make it into the postseason, even if the Broncos stumble.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule:

Week 17: at New York Giants (2-13)
Week 18: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-12)

Dolphins potential playoff opponents

The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything breaks right for them. That leaves Miami with only two possible opponents to face. They are as follows:

Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens

The Bills have the inside track to the No. 2 seed in the postseason and can wrap it up with a Week 17 win over the Jets. The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing by a combined score of 61-37.

AFC playoff picture Week 17

AFC

Kansas City Chiefs (15-1, AFC West winners, No. 1 seed)*
Buffalo Bills (12-3, AFC East winners)*
Baltimore Ravens (11-5, AFC North leaders)*
Houston Texans (9-7, AFC South winners)*
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6, wild card No. 1)*
Los Angeles Chargers (10-6, wild card No. 2)*
Denver Broncos (9-7, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Cincinnati Bengals (8-8), Indianapolis Colts (7-8), Miami Dolphins (7-8).

NFC

Detroit Lions (13-2, NFC North leaders)*
Philadelphia Eagles (12-3, NFC East leaders)*
Los Angeles Rams (10-6, NFC West leaders)
Atlanta Falcons (8-7, NFC South leaders)
Minnesota Vikings (13-2, wild card No. 1)*
Green Bay Packers (11-4, wild card No. 2)
Washington Commanders (10-5, wild card No. 3)

In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (8-7), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7)

An asterisk (*) denotes teams that have clinched a playoff spot. Teams that have clinched division titles are noted accordingly.

Dallas Mavericks star Luka Doncic’s calf injury will likely keep him sidelined for at least a month.

The Mavericks announced that the left calf strain Doncic suffered in the team’s 105-99 Christmas Day loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves will be ‘reevaluated within one month.’ ‘Wishing @luka7doncic a speedy recovery. We know you will come back stronger than ever,’ the Mavericks added in a health update shared on social media on Saturday.

The incident happened on Wednesday with the Mavericks trailing 48-38 with 2:55 remaining in the first half. Doncic appeared to suffer a non-contact leg injury. He limped to the sideline as play continued and headed back to the locker room. The Mavericks ruled him out for the remainder of the contest with a left calf strain.

LUKA DONCIC: Mavericks star’s Dallas home burglarized

‘An injury is an injury. He’s had a couple of them this year and we’ve played without him,’ head coach Jason Kidd said on Friday. ‘Next man up mentality. That’s what we’re facing right now… The depth of our team is being tested and those guys in the locker room are up for the test.’

All things Mavs: Latest Dallas Mavericks news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

Doncic missed a game on Nov. 17 with a right knee contusion. He later missed five consecutive games in late November after exiting the Mavericks’ 132-91 win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Nov. 21 with a right wrist sprain. Doncic was sidelined on Dec. 19 and Dec. 21 with a left heel contusion before straining his left calf on Christmas Day.

Doncic is averaging 28.1 points, 8.3 rebounds, 7.8 assists and 35.7 minutes in 22 games this season.

The Mavericks will also be without forward Naji Marshall for several games after he received a four-game suspension for his involvement in a brawl with Phoenix Suns center Jusuf Nurkić on Friday. P.J. Washington served a one game suspension in the Mavericks’ game against the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday.

All things Mavs: Latest Dallas Mavericks news, schedule, roster, stats, injury updates and more.

This story was updated with new information.

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