In former Duke coach Mike Elko, Texas A&M made a hire that checks three important boxes:

Familiarity with the program. Elko was the defensive coordinator for the school’s best seasons under former coach Jimbo Fisher, including a 9-1 finish during the COVID-abbreviated 2020 season that saw the Aggies come up just short of an appearance in the College Football Playoff.

Power Five experience. Elko won nine games in his debut season at Duke and had this year’s team in the Top 25 before injuries took their toll in the second half. The only other modern-era Duke coach to spend fewer than four years with the program was Steve Spurrier, who led the Blue Devils for three seasons before being hired at Florida.

A defensive focus. Elko’s blue-collar approach stands in contrast to his four immediate predecessors at A&M. Failed hires Dennis Franchione, Mike Sherman, Kevin Sumlin and Jimbo Fisher brought backgrounds on offense to College Station.

Given the roster in place and the resources at hand, Elko has the chance to perform a similarly quick turnaround and bring the Aggies back into contention in the obscenely deep SEC.

Here’s what the new hire means and what to expect:

A high-floor hire

Elko represents a safe, substance-over-style hire even if he lacks the same name value or national reputation as Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Washington’s Kalen DeBoer or even Kentucky’s Mark Stoops, who seemed on the verge of leaving the Wildcats late on Saturday night before deciding to stay in Lexington.

This isn’t a bad thing: Jimbo Fisher brought a national championship and a Texas-size ego to A&M, and we’re aware of how his inability to adapt and evolve contributed to one of the most disappointing coaching tenures in recent SEC history.

Elko will stress defense and player development as a starting point. As a coach, one thing you learn at Duke − or don’t learn, and then lose a bunch before getting fired − is that little things matter. How you practice matter. How you develop your depth chart matters. There’s so little room for error that success demands perfection, or somewhere close.

In that sense, Elko’s experience at Duke should translate well to the new tools and resources at his disposal. Even if the program doesn’t land recruiting classes as highly ranked as those Fisher brought on campus, the combination of the Aggies’ recruiting base and a deeper commitment to the details of winning football make this an extremely intriguing fit.

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Setting realistic expectations

Athletics director Ross Bjork has already said that A&M is not an eight-win job and that the school will pay a coach a national-championship salary.

In return, of course, the Aggies will expect a national championship.

Elko’s six-year deal has a base payment of $7 million per season with major incentives: $1 million for making the playoff, $1.5 million for reaching the quarterfinals of the 12-team playoff or winning the SEC championship, $2 million for reaching the playoff semifinals, $2.5 million for reaching the championship game and $3.5 million for winning the national championship.

Good luck with all that.

It’s not just that getting this program from the current standard of eight wins to the top of the Bowl Subdivision is unrealistic given the number of teams in the Aggies’ way. There’s also history to consider: A&M has just one double-digit win season since 1998, never finished higher than second in the SEC West since joining the conference in 2012 and hasn’t won a national title since 1939.

Realistically, Elko should be expected to reach the eight-win threshold from the start. He should be expected to lead a team that competes with the best of the best in the SEC, doesn’t flop in marquee games, avoids letdowns against inferior competition and, of course, beats old-and-new conference rival Texas more often than not.

But all the championship-or-bust chatter is nonsense that will only serve to diminish any achievements by the new staff and create an environment unconducive to sustainable, long-term success.

What will Mike Elko want from the offense?

His best hire at Duke was offensive coordinator Kevin Johns, an experienced play-caller who did his best work this past season with a group depleted by several costly injuries, most notably to starting quarterback Riley Leonard.

Johns has extensive experience, including previous stints as a Power Five coordinator at Indiana and Texas Tech. He’s an option to follow Elko to A&M.

But the checkbook is open. That Elko will be able to spend millions on his hires makes you wonder: Will he stick with continuity and bring along most of his offensive assistants with the Blue Devils or opt to strike out in a new direction?

If he does put this job on the open market, A&M will be in the mix for every high-profile offensive coordinator looking to add a few zeroes to his bank account under the freedom typically afforded by working under a defense-first head coach.

One huge key: Keeping the roster as intact as possible

The program’s player development was lousy and player accountability even worse under Fisher, making it easy to pinpoint these failures as two of the biggest keys behind his bellyflopped tenure.

But to be clear: A&M does not have a talent issue.

There is no shortage of elite, game-changing personnel on the Aggies’ roster. According to the team-talent calculator from 247Sports.com, A&M has the fourth-most talent of any program in the FBS, trailing only Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State. (Those three are currently 34-2.)

Keeping this talent on campus will go a long way toward determining whether or not Elko can hit the ground running.

In this case, that Elko was on campus as recently as 2021 and is a known commodity to a big chunk of the roster − and even helped recruit a good number of returnees − should limit the exodus of talent and give him a very strong roster at his disposal next season.

It’s officially crunch time for fantasy football managers. With only two more weeks remaining in most leagues’ regular seasons, we have six teams on bye in Week 13. That means lineup decisions will be as difficult as they’ve been all year – at a time when playoff berths could be hanging in the balance.

So yeah, no pressure at all to make the right calls.

So let’s get a jump on some of the factors that need to be considered for those fantasy managers who find themselves in must-win situations.

Here’s who to start (and who to sit) for Week 13 NFL fantasy football.

Fantasy football quarterbacks to start in Week 13

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

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The Niners’ offense is firing on all cylinders, averaging more than 30 points over their past three games. Purdy has been highly efficient, completing at least 70% of his passes in five consecutive outings. Touchdown passes, however, have been sporadic – with only one last week in a blowout win over the Seahawks.

That should change in what looks like a shootout in Philadelphia. The Eagles give up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and were just torched by Buffalo’s Josh Allen.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Going out on a limb a bit here, but Murray seems to be getting comfortable in the Arizona offense after missing the first nine games with a knee injury. He’s thrown for at least 200 yards in all three of his starts and has a rushing touchdown in every game.

The Pittsburgh Steelers can be tough, especially at home, but Murray’s scrambling ability will help counter the pressure T.J. Watt and Co. generate. Only seven defenses give up more yards per game than the Steelers do, so look for Murray to exploit their weaknesses through the air or on the ground.

Fantasy football quarterbacks to sit in Week 13

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford is coming off his best game of the season, tossing four touchdown passes in a blowout win over the Cardinals. However, none of those TDs were caught by a wide receiver as Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua have been dealing with a variety of nagging injuries.

This week, the Rams face a staunch Cleveland Browns defense that gives up the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks in the entire league. The immobile Stafford needs time to throw, something he’s unlikely to get with Myles Garrett bearing down on him. Look for L.A. to rely on the ground game with Kyren Williams finally back to 100%.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Stroud has been a must-start every week so there’s little chance you’d actually bench him in favor of someone else at such a crucial time. However … the Denver Broncos have been on a serious roll ever since giving up 70 points to the Dolphins in Week 3.

Vance Joseph’s defense has held the likes of Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes in check during Denver’s current five-game winning streak, so don’t be surprised if Stroud’s recent run of success hits a speed bump this week.

Fantasy football running backs to start in Week 13

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

White recorded his first 100-yard rushing game of the season last week in Indianapolis, though he didn’t get into the end zone. That could change against the lowly Carolina Panthers, who are in disarray after firing head coach Frank Reich and several assistants.

White has also been effective as a pass-catcher out of the backfield, ranking second to Christian McCaffrey this season in receiving yards by a running back. He’ll be a serious double-threat against a defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points per game to the position.

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris is admittedly a high-risk pick, but it’s one that could pay dividends against a porous Cardinals defense that ranks just behind the Panthers in friendliness to running backs. The Steelers seemed to turn a corner after dismissing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, generating over 400 yards of offense for the first time in 59 games.

Harris was a major part of that resurgence, rushing for 99 yards and a touchdown at Cincinnati. While he’ll continue to split time with Jaylen Warren, Harris did see more total snaps last week and scored for the fourth time in six games.

Fantasy football running backs to sit in Week 13

Breece Hall, New York Jets

The one bright spot on the Jets offense, Hall has been asked to shoulder an even larger share of the workload in recent weeks. He’s salvaged his fantasy value by being a frequent target on short dump-off passes that have become more common with Tim Boyle under center.

However, Hall could have more trouble than usual against the Atlanta Falcons, who rank near the bottom of the league in receptions allowed to running backs and allow the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

A borderline first-round pick this summer, Mixon has seen his fantasy potential crater with the loss of QB Joe Burrow. He recorded season lows of 27 snaps and eight carries last week in a low-scoring affair vs. Pittsburgh.

The Bengals will face a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has allowed 7.2 receptions per game to running backs on the season, more than any other team. Mixon hasn’t been a huge factor in the passing game so far, but he’ll need to be to have a productive fantasy day.

Fantasy football wide receivers to start in Week 13

Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins

It’s always a good idea to start wide receivers against the Commanders. While Tyreek Hill should have a banner day against the troubled Washington secondary, there’s still ample opportunity for Waddle to enjoy some success of his own.

While he’s had a disappointing season compared to a year ago, Waddle did record his second 100-yard receiving day of 2023 last week against the Jets. Now, he goes from facing one of the NFL’s best pass defenses to one of the worst.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

Downs made good use of the Colts’ Week 11 bye to recover from a knee injury that had limited him for the previous two games. His timing may have been a little off against the Buccaneers, but he did see a season-high 13 targets from QB Gardner Minshew.

If you’re looking for a solid wideout to fill a bye-week vacancy, the rookie third-rounder could very well be your man. The Tennessee Titans rank sixth in most fantasy points per game allowed to wide receivers. With word that RB Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a thumb injury, Downs and fellow wideout Michael Pittman Jr. could be in for big days.

Fantasy football wide receivers to sit in Week 13

DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks

Metcalf’s wildly inconsistent season may have hit a new low last week when he hauled in only three of his nine targets for 32 yards against the 49ers. Normally one of the more sure-handed receivers in the league, Metcalf has only caught 53.8% of his targets this year.

Part of that has to do with QB Geno Smith’s struggles, especially when facing top-tier pass defenses. Unfortunately, he’ll see one of the best this week in the Dallas Cowboys. Whether he’s matched up against DaRon Bland or Stephon Gilmore, Metcalf will have his hands full.

Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns

Inconsistent quarterback play is an even bigger problem in Cleveland, where PJ Walker could get the start Sunday if Dorian Thompson-Robinson doesn’t clear the NFL’s concussion protocol. Either way, it’s not great news for Cooper, who’s battling a rib injury that forced him to exit Sunday’s loss at Denver in the second half with only two catches for 16 yards.  

Although X-rays came back negative, Cooper still has a moderately difficult matchup coming up against the Rams. Expect a lot of heat on whoever’s playing quarterback for the Browns, leading to more short passes to running backs and TE David Njoku – not the big chunk plays on which Cooper thrives.

Fantasy football tight ends to start in Week 13

Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh Steelers

While it may take some guts to start teammate Najee Harris this week, Freiermuth is one of the biggest no-brainers of the week at tight end. The changes implemented by the Steelers’ new offensive brain trust resulted in a career-high 120 receiving yards for Freiermuth vs. the Bengals. Additionally, his nine catches equaled his entire total over the first 10 games.

The Cardinals have been one of the better defenses against tight ends this year, but that may not matter with the ‘Muth seemingly 100% recovered from the hamstring injury that forced him to miss five games earlier in the season.

Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

Ferguson played his second-fewest snaps of the season on Thanksgiving Day, but that was partly due to a blowout win over Washington. QB Dak Prescott still looked for his tight end in the red zone, which led to a TD catch for backup Luke Schoonmaker.

In what should be a more competitive game this week vs. Seattle, Ferguson should see more than the three passes that came his way last time out. He’s been a borderline TE1 because of his position-high 19 targets in the red zone. Look for more of those and a possible touchdown against the Seahawks.

Fantasy football tight end to sit in Week 13

Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers

Back in the lineup after missing Week 11 with a chest injury, Everett caught all four of his targets for 43 yards and a touchdown on Sunday night. He might be an enticing start against the 2-9 Patriots, but defense hasn’t really been the problem in New England. The Pats have allowed a mere 10 points in back-to-back games – and they’re particularly stingy against tight ends. The Chargers can find other weaknesses to exploit.

Two runners who had heart attacks at a half-marathon in California in 2022 finished the same race this year — right next to the man who saved them.

Gregory Gonzales collapsed around 3 miles into the Monterey Bay Half Marathon last year. Dr. Steve Lome, a cardiologist who was also competing in the 13.1-mile course, happened to be running right behind him. Lome performed CPR on Gonzales, who was 67 at the time. After paramedics arrived, Lome continued the race.

But as soon as the doctor crossed the finish line, another runner, Michael Heilemann, also had a heart attack a few steps in front of him. Lome again found himself performing CPR, this time on 56-year-old Heilemann.

READ: Runner performed life-saving CPR during half-marathon. Then he finished the race and did it againWATCH: Cardiologist performs CPR on two racers who happened to be running in front of him

Only about 10 percent of people who suffer a cardiac arrest outside a hospital survive, according to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Both runners recovered and credit Lome with saving their lives.

A year after the ordeal, Lome, Heilemann and Gonzales decided to run the same half-marathon all together.

Watch the jubilant moment in the video above when a doctor and the two runners he saved a year prior cross the finish line.

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Forget about upgrading your starting rotation. Most Major League Baseball clubs would do well simply to tread water this winter.

Although free agency has barely begun, dueling market forces – including a weak free agent class and an inordinate number of teams aiming for contention – will create significant challenges for clubs seeking increasingly elusive reliable starting pitching.

And an analysis of major league rosters indicates demand is outkicking supply by a roughly 2-to-1 margin.

As the off-season gears up in the week preceding the winter meetings, an estimated 41 rotation openings exist, according to a USA TODAY Sports analysis of team depth charts via MLB.com and Roster Resource.

Yet just 19 starting pitchers remain from USA TODAY Sports’ list of the top 89 free agents entering this winter.

HOT STOVE UPDATES: MLB free agency: Ranking and tracking the top players available.

Certainly, there are other arms available; that list was a collection of players highly expected to receive major league contracts. Other pitchers will become available via trade. Many who in other years might have expected to receive a minor-league contract will find themselves in line for a guaranteed major league deal. Others still – such as Japanese right-hander Shoto Imanaga – have since been posted or made available.

And teams failing to add will simply have to trust an unproven young arm or cross their fingers a middling veteran improves.

But even by the rosiest computations – adding every last Dylan Cease or Logan Gilbert trade chip, a Luis Severino or a Chase Anderson or a Tommy John-recovering Tyler Mahle, the shortfall is significant.

It’s also exacerbated by a dearth of young arms ready to step in. According to MLB Pipeline, two of the game’s top 20 prospects and nine of the top 50 are starting pitchers.

While roughly 11 of the top 100 can harbor dreams of reaching the bigs in 2024, just two – Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison and Pirates right-hander Paul Skenes, the reigning No. 1 overall pick – are reasonably positioned to start the year in the majors, or shortly thereafter.

Of course, necessity will be the mother of invention. Many teams will go without a fifth – heck, perhaps even a fourth – starter, opting for bullpen games or piggyback situations. But those practices are not necessarily sustainable over 162 games, especially for teams shooting for a berth in the expanded playoffs.

And in 2024, that will be roughly 25 of the 30 teams, with only the White Sox, Royals, Nationals, Pirates and Rockies not expected to aim for championship-caliber rosters.

Perhaps we’ll look back and laud the St. Louis Cardinals, who doled out eight-figure guarantees to veteran innings-eaters Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn before the Thanksgiving table was set, and then added All-Star Sonny Gray on a three-year, $75 million deal.

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For now, a look at the 30 major league rotations and their sure things, their maybes and their biggest needs in an increasingly barren marketplace, with their starter shortfall in parentheses:

American League

Baltimore Orioles (1)

Locked in: RH Kyle Bradish, RH Grayson Rodriguez, LH John Means, RH Dean Kremer

Maybe: RH Tyler Wells, LH Cole Irvin, LH DL Hall

Outlook: Baltimore must replace Gibson, who threw a team-high 192 innings, not just due to production but in signaling intent. The Orioles won 100 games last year with Gibson’s $10 million contract their largest salary; now, their staff could use another, bigger commitment to reward a core that produced the AL’s best record on a shoe-string budget. The key question: If they fail to add a premium reliever in Felix Bautista’s absence, will Wells be forced to fill a high-leverage relief role? That may impact the staff makeup significantly.

Boston Red Sox (2)

Locked in: LH Chris Sale, RH Nick Pivetta, RH Brayan Bello

Maybe: RH Tanner Houck, RH Kutter Crawford, RH Garrett Whitlock

Outlook: Subject to change – perhaps significantly, with the Red Sox linked early to Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The club has both short- and long-term ramifications to consider, with Sale and Pivetta both free agents next season. Anything from a patchwork six-man rotation to a star-studded front end remains in play.

Chicago White Sox (1)

Locked in: RH Dylan Cease, RH Michael Kopech, RH Touki Touissant, LH Jared Shuster

Maybe: RH Michael Soroka, LH Jake Eder

Outlook: A new GM, an erstwhile ace with trade value. Yep, all this will change. Cease’s ERA was below league average in 2023 but his dominant track record will fetch a decent trade package. With Cease heading out and Soroka having pitched in just 10 games since 2019, the club can use a quasi-reliable veteran to chew up innings. Otherwise, it’s open auditions on the South Side.

Cleveland Guardians (0)

Locked in: RH Shane Bieber, RH Tanner Bibee, LH Logan Allen, RH Triston McKenzie, RH Gavin Williams

Maybe: RH Hunter Gaddis, RH Xzavion Curry

Outlook: A rare clean sheet as the offseason begins − including four guys with ERAs far superior than league average. Bieber might find his name in trade talks and health questions surround him and McKenzie. But unless there’s a significant desire to lengthen the lineup at the expense of the rotation, these guys won’t be expected to hit the market hard.

Detroit Tigers (1)

Locked in: LH Tarik Skubal, RH Kenta Maeda, RH Reese Olson

Maybe: RH Matt Manning, RH Casey Mize, RH Sawyer Gipson-Long, RH Alex Faedo

Outlook: At long last, the Tigers have options – not the least of which is money to burn with Miguel Cabrera’s onerous contract off the books and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez opting out of his deal. Luring Maeda for $24 million over two years leaves payroll room for a higher-profile arm; the numerous internal options should cover at least one slot.

Houston Astros (1)

Locked in: RH Justin Verlander, LH Framber Valdez, RH Cristian Javier, RH Hunter Brown

Maybe: RH J.P. France

Outlook: Somewhat remarkably this club finished one win shy of the World Series given its rotation’s underperformance and health woes. And improved years from Valdez, Javier and Brown will have the biggest impact if the Astros are to keep pace with the World Series champion Rangers. Yet with Luis Garcia still shelved for most of the year, the club needs at least one reinforcement.

Kansas City Royals (1)

Locked in: LH Cole Ragans, RH Brady Singer, RH Jordan Lyles

Maybe: RH Daniel Lynch, LH Angel Zerpa

Outlook: What a find: Ragans posted a 2.64 ERA in 12 starts after his acquisition from Texas in the Aroldis Chapman trade. Beyond that, goodness. Lyles is back after he did what was asked – pitch 177 innings – and a few things the Royals wouldn’t have preferred (a majors-worst 17 losses and 6.28 ERA). Beyond that, well, figure on a depth arm coming in, though probably not one that will have rival clubs cursing that they missed out.

Los Angeles Angels (1)

Locked in: LH Patrick Sandoval, RH Griffin Canning, LH Reid Detmers, LH Tyler Anderson

Maybe: LH Chase Silseth

Outlook: The option very much exists to run it back with the guts of a rotation that produced a 73-win season – and that will now be minus the great Shohei Ohtani. Yeah. Anderson (5.43 ERA) is still under contract for two more years and holdovers like Sandoval either regressed or failed to take significant steps forward. How motivated are the Angels to shake things up? Anyone?

Minnesota Twins (1)

Locked in: RH Pablo Lopez, RH Joe Ryan, RH Bailey Ober, RH Chris Paddack

Maybe: RH Louis Varland, LH Brent Headrick, RH Simeon Woods Richardson

Outlook: The Twins say they have to cut costs – and rival teams are too happy to oblige, with Maeda a Tiger and All-Star Gray on his way to St. Louis. Backfilling one of those spots is key insurance – especially with Paddack getting set for his first full season after Tommy John recovery.

New York Yankees (2)

Locked in: RH Gerrit Cole, LH Carlos Rodon, RH Michael King

Maybe: RH Clarke Schmidt, LH Nestor Cortes

Outlook: Given Rodon’s injury history, ‘locked in’ is relative here. The Yankees may not let themselves get outbid for Yamamoto, but they really need two big arms to back up GM Brian Cashman’s expletive-laced meanderings.

Athletics (0)

Locked in: RH Paul Blackburn, LH JP Sears, RH Luis Medina, LH Ken Waldichuk, RH Mason Miller

Maybe: RH Osvaldo Bido, RH Hogan Harris

Outlook: That number in parentheses could be ‘5’ if the A’s were serious about contending, but until there’s some sign this is anything but a ghost franchise, we’ll figure on perhaps a few fungible arms added via minor-league contract.

Seattle Mariners (1)

Locked in: RH Luis Castillo, RH George Kirby, RH Logan Gilbert, RH Bryce Miller

Maybe: RH Bryan Woo, LH Marco Gonzales, RH Emerson Hancock

Outlook: Not much room at the inn here, and perhaps that’s worth keeping an eye on. Trade-happy GM Jerry Dipoto may want to deal from his surplus of arms to add offense – hard to find on this open market – and backfill with another arm, particularly with Robbie Ray still out after Tommy John surgery.

Tampa Bay Rays (1)

Locked in: RH Tyler Glasnow, RH Zach Eflin, RH Shane Baz, RH Aaron Civale

Maybe: RH Zack Littell, RH Taj Bradley

Outlook: Easy to imagine the Rays dealing Glasnow’s franchise-record $25 million salary to help in other areas, especially given the prices out there. But this club won 99 games in 2023, and perhaps its win curve won’t be this high for quite a while. If they’re all in, best to grab one more arm with Baz coming back from Tommy John surgery.

Texas Rangers (2)

Locked in: RH Nathan Eovaldi, RH Max Scherzer, RH Jon Gray

Maybe: RH Dane Dunning, LH Andrew Heaney

Outlook: Retaining playoff hero Jordan Montgomery is a priority, but let’s take it a step further: They lost Montgomery this offseason and figure to lose Eovaldi – whose 2025 option is a 50-50-shot to vest − Scherzer and Heaney next winter. So why bring back Montgomery and another arm, creating enviable depth for a title defense with Dunning and Heaney at the ready while lessening the reliance on Jacob deGrom in 2025.

Toronto Blue Jays (1)

Locked in: RH Kevin Gausman, RH José Berríos, RH Chris Bassitt, LH Yusei Kikuchi

Maybe: RH Alek Manoah, RH Mitch White

Outlook: An Ohtani X factor team, with Manoah’s struggles adding another layer of intrigue. It seems unlikely the club will want to depend on his resurgence when so many other pieces are in place with a crucial year coming up.

National League

Arizona Diamondbacks (2)

Locked in: RH Zac Gallen, RH Merrill Kelly, RH Brandon Pfaadt

Maybe: RH Ryne Nelson, LH Tommy Henry

Outlook: Nelson shined in a lengthy World Series relief appearance but couldn’t hold down a starting gig entering October. With the club trending upward, expect them to opt for more certainty.

Atlanta Braves (1)

Locked in: RH Spencer Strider, RH Charlie Morton, LH Max Fried, RH Bryce Elder

Maybe: RH Huascar Ynoa, RH A.J. Smith-Shawver

Outlook: Don’t let the certainty fool you: GM Alex Anthopoulos seems determined to upgrade the rotation, perhaps via trade. Yes, teams with actual starter depth can thin the pool, too.

Chicago Cubs (2)

Locked in: LH Justin Steele, RH Jameson Taillon, RH Kyle Hendricks

Maybe: LH Jordan Wicks, RH Javier Assad

Outlook: A huge X factor here, since their interest in Ohtani and perhaps retaining free agent Cody Bellinger could get spendy even before addressing this year’s rotation. Prospect Ben Brown may arrive sometime in ’24, but manager Craig Counsell’s hiring says they’ll hit the ground with a contention-ready team.

Cincinnati Reds (1)

Locked in: RH Hunter Greene, LH Andrew Abbott, LH Nick Lodolo, RH Graham Ashcraft

Maybe: LH Brandon Williamson

Outlook: They could break camp today with a passable starting rotation, but dig into the innings counts, injury histories and peripherals and the Reds need some help. Not likely to shop in the high-rent district, but they may need to act soon to add reliable innings coverage.

Colorado Rockies (1)

Locked in: LH Kyle Freeland, RH Cal Quantrill, LH Austin Gomber

Maybe: RH Ryan Feltner, LH Jalen Beeks, RH Connor Seabold, RH Peter Lambert

Outlook: With German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela still recovering from Tommy John surgeries, a high-ERA group remains. They may just cobble from within, and any free agent willing to take their talents to Denver likely won’t leave contenders kicking themselves.

Los Angeles Dodgers (3)

Locked in: RH Walker Buehler, RH Bobby Miller

Maybe: RH Ryan Pepiot, RH Emmet Sheehan, LH Ryan Yarbrough, RH Gavin Stone, RH Michael Grove, RH Nick Frasso

Outlook: Let’s get weird, folks! So many questions surrounding a team with so much money and perennially high expectations. What might they expect out of Buehler coming off a long Tommy John surgery? Will they sign Ohtani – and if so, do they want to spend huge dollars both to make up for his ’24 pitching absence and give him a future co-pilot? Will Clayton Kershaw figure into this year? How much do they trust their young pitchers after an early playoff flameout? The wildest winter in recent memory for a club coming off 100 wins is in the offing.

Miami Marlins (0)

Locked in: LH Jesús Luzardo, LH Braxton Garrett, RH Eury Perez, RH Edward Cabrera, LH Trevor Rogers

Maybe: RH Sixto Sánchez, LH Ryan Weathers

Outlook: Once again, very subject to change. New GM Peter Bendix is an unknown quantity but, given his Rays lineage, will be aggressive. And the Marlins have a modicum of pitching depth even as Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer are shelved with Tommy John surgeries − so, a trade to add hitting could send one of the above out.

Milwaukee Brewers (2)

Locked in: RH Corbin Burnes, RH Freddy Peralta, RH Adrian Houser

Maybe: RH Colin Rea, LH Robert Gasser

Outlook: Brandon Woodruff is gone, Counsell is gone and the Brewers hold one of the biggest offseason trade chips in Burnes. Hold and try to capture 88 wins again? Trade Burnes and maybe others, too, for a full-fledged reset? Milwaukee’s direction(s) will have a big impact on the market.

New York Mets (3)

Locked in: LH Jose Quintana, RH Kodai Senga

Maybe: RH Tylor Megill, LH Joey Lucchesi, RH José Butto, LH David Peterson

Outlook: Just because they’ve kicked the $43 million starter habit doesn’t mean the Mets will roll out half the Syracuse Chiefs’ projected rotation. No, owner Steve Cohen almost certainly will swipe a big-money name off the top of the free agent board and new GM David Stearns likely won’t stop there.

Philadelphia Phillies (0)

Locked in: RH Zack Wheeler, RH Aaron Nola, LH Ranger Suárez, RH Taijuan Walker, LH Cristopher Sanchez

Maybe: RH Mick Abel

Outlook: Might want some sixth-starter insurance, but after signing Nola to a $172 million deal to keep him off the market, this is as shovel-ready a group as they come. Don’t sleep too much, though: Wheeler is entering his walk year.

Pittsburgh Pirates (1)

Locked in: RH Mitch Keller, RH Luis Ortiz

Maybe: RH Quinn Priester, RH Roansy Contreras, RHP Paul Skenes, LH Bailey Falter

Outlook: Once again, Pittsburgh is left to decide what combo of veterans, prospects and bargain-bin reinforcements will comprise its rotation while pondering the two developments that really matter: When to promote No. 1 overall pick Skenes, and how aggressively they attempt to lock up Keller, who’s two seasons from free agency. Contreras (11 starts, 6.59 ERA) and Priester (eight starts, 7.74 ERA) took their lumps as rookies and for now have nothing in their way.

San Diego Padres (3)

Locked in: RH Yu Darvish, RH Joe Musgrove

Maybe: LH Ryan Carpenter, RH Matt Waldron, LH Adrian Morejon, LH Jay Groome, RH Pedro Avila

Outlook: GM A.J. Preller doesn’t deal in ‘maybes.’ So watching him backfill rotation holes left by free agents Blake Snell, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha while the club reportedly must cut costs will be fascinating. Even if they trade slugger Juan Soto or scrimp around the edges, it makes little sense for the Padres to pair five nine-figure contracts with a rotation that has little chance at success. Get your popcorn.

San Francisco Giants (2)

Locked in: RH Logan Webb, RH Anthony DeSclafani, RH Ross Stripling

Maybe: LH Kyle Harrison, RH Alex Cobb, RH Keaton Winn, RH Tristan Beck

Outlook: Team Volatile, what with a new manager, pitching coach, a GM feeling the heat and a desire for someone, anyone to take their big free agent dollars. Ohtani? Snell? With All-Star Cobb out until around May with hip surgery, the club would love for top prospect Harrison to seize a rotation spot. But beyond that, they need something more to sell than holdovers Webb, DeSclafani and Stripling.

St. Louis Cardinals (1)

Locked in: RH Sonny Gray, RH Kyle Gibson, RH Miles Mikolas, RH Lance Lynn

Maybe: LH Steven Matz, LH Drew Rom, LH Matthew Liberatore

Outlook: They jumped the market like a cornerback sniffing out a wide receiver screen, adding Gray, Gibson and Lynn before your leftover turkey turned bad. And they still might not be done – that’s how bad Cardinals pitching was last season.

Washington Nationals (1)

Locked in: LH Patrick Corbin, RH Josiah Gray, LH MacKenzie Gore, RH Trevor Williams

Maybe: RH Jake Irvin

Outlook: It’s possible they simply roll with the five names above, but with Cade Cavalli not expected back until later in the year after Tommy John surgery, it’d be unrealistic to expect this group to hold up without some reinforcement.

The stiffest debate in this season’s penultimate College Football Playoff rankings will be over where to place a pair of one-loss teams in Ohio State and Oregon.

The Buckeyes should drop four spots to No. 6 after losing to Michigan for the third year in a row, falling behind the Ducks but staying ahead of Texas and Alabama. Oregon could come in as high as No. 4 despite the one loss and be ahead of unbeaten Florida State.

In the end, though, where Ohio State and Oregon rank on Tuesday night is immaterial.

The Buckeyes have a convoluted path to the playoff requiring a specific mix of five results this weekend, including upsets in the Big 12 and ACC. Oregon can only focus on avenging this year’s regular-season loss to Washington and putting together the best résumé for the playoff selection committee. The Ducks are very likely in the field at 12-1 as long as Georgia beats Alabama in the SEC championship game.

We’re just days away from the finish of the regular season. Here’s where the committee will land in the second-to-last rankings of the year:

1. Georgia (12-0)

That there are still eight teams in the playoff mix with one week left to go could lead to a remarkable scenario: Two-time defending national champion Georgia left outside the top four after losing on a neutral field to the Crimson Tide. Given the expected results in other Power Five championship games, it’s very possible that this is how things unfold should the Bulldogs come up just short of another perfect regular season.

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2. Michigan (12-0)

The hard part is done for Michigan, which scored single-possession wins against Penn State and Ohio State in November to earn a matchup with Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. While elite on defense, the Hawkeyes’ offensive woes make it unlikely the Wolverines suffer the sort of upset that would bring total chaos to the final rankings.

3. Washington (12-0)

Washington moves up one spot after becoming the first team to go 12-0 in the 12-team Pac-12 era. (Better late than never.) Up next is Friday’s winner-take-all rematch with Oregon. The Huskies didn’t exactly cruise to an unbeaten record, with the past eight games decided by a grand total of 49 points with no game won by more than 10 points.

4. Florida State (12-0)

The committee can move Oregon ahead of Florida State based on the answer to this question: Who would win on a neutral field? But the Seminoles have the best win of the two (LSU) and another win (Clemson) against a team slated to be in Tuesday night’s rankings. Couple that with the Seminoles’ unbeaten record and there’s really no reason for the committee to move the Ducks into the top four barring the desire for unnecessary drama.

5. Oregon (11-1)

Oregon will score a ranked win via last weekend’s 31-7 handling of Oregon State. The Ducks might get a second such win through Utah, though the Utes probably won’t crack the Top 25 with so few openings on the back end of the rankings. Looking at things today, Oregon has one guaranteed ranked win to Florida State’s two and four wins against Power Five bowl teams to the Seminoles’ seven.

6. Ohio State (11-1)

The Buckeyes need a borderline miracle to land in the playoff. The likely postseason destination is the Orange Bowl against Louisville, should the Cardinals lose to FSU and the Seminoles finish in the top four.

7. Texas (11-1)

Texas can wrap up the Big 12 crown with a win against Oklahoma State and then start scoreboard watching. With Michigan heavily favored to beat Iowa, the best scenario for the Longhorns involves Oregon beating Washington, Louisville topping Florida State and Alabama getting past Georgia. The last one is especially meaningful: Alabama can’t get in the playoff without UT getting in the playoff due to this year’s non-conference win in Tuscaloosa.

8. Alabama (11-1)

No team in the history of the playoff format has moved into the four four from this far back with one week left in the regular season. But the roadmap is crystal clear for the Crimson Tide, who are in with a win against the Bulldogs but in a New Year’s Six bowl with a loss.

9. Missouri (10-2)

Missouri closed a breakthrough regular season under coach Eli Drinkwitz with a 48-14 laugher against Arkansas, likely sealing the deal for a New Year’s Six bid and giving the SEC three teams in the major bowls. Mississippi is also an option thanks to two strong wins against Tulane and LSU. The latter win against is important to keep in mind since Missouri lost a shootout to the Tigers in early October.

10. Penn State (10-2)

This has been a solid if somewhat predictable year for Penn State, which scored 10 wins by an average of 32.6 points per game but suffered single-digit losses to Michigan and Ohio State. While not the conference-championship type season some expected, the Nittany Lions will still reach a New Year’s Six bowl for the fifth time under James Franklin.