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Grayson kicks off earnings week in a big way on this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus! He explores one of the latest new tools and features on StockCharts: our earnings calendar – with reported results and upcoming announcement dates to help you use the right tool!

This video was originally broadcast on January 13, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of StockCharts in Focus air Fridays at 3pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

Welcome to the new year and the new January reset!

The January 6-month calendar range could be even more influential than usual. Let me explain before showing you the S&P 500 (SPY) price chart…

After the first 10-trading days in January, a range is established. That range becomes a guideline for the next 6 months until it resets in July. Should an instrument clear the top of the range by the end of the 10-days, the statistical chance of follow through to the upside is more significant. Conversely, should an instrument break the bottom of the range by the end of the 10-days, the statistical chance of follow through to the downside is more significant. Should the instrument remain within the trading range, then one would expect more chop until the range resolves one way or another.

We at MarketGauge are particularly focused on this upcoming calendar range because of how seamlessly it corresponds with resistance both in price and the moving averages.

Here is a chart of SPY on a daily timeframe. And for fun, we use Gold (GLD) as our benchmark, straight from our ACP Plug-in and Triple Play Leadership Indicator.

We have completed the first 9 days of trading, which means by Thursday the 19th, the January 6-month calendar range will be set. The price and, very likely, the top of the full 10 days of the trading range corresponds beautifully with the 200-day moving average (green line). And the price and very likely the bottom of the full 10 days of trading range corresponds beautifully with the 50 and 10-day moving averages (blue and cyan lines). How clean is that?

A break above the price range will also take the SPY into an accumulation phase clearing the 200-DMA, most likely yielding more upside. Conversely, a break below the price range will also take the SPY into a bearish phase below the 50 and 10-DMAs, most likely yielding more downside.

Look how SPY is underperforming gold. Inflation peaked you say? Gold versus the SPY says otherwise. Also note that our other ACP Plug-In from Triple Play or Real Motion (momentum indicator), is stronger, above both the positively sloped and stacked 50 and 200 moving averages. However, the RM indicator is also into resistance at the Bollinger Band, which could suggest an overbought SPY with a mean reversion on the horizon.

Regardless, we are ready and excitedly waiting to see which way the January calendar range resolves.

Of course, there are other factors to watch along with the calendar ranges. And every instrument will create a range. So, keep a big eye on what happens once the 6-month range is established. At that point, you will have another reliable indicator to follow, which should help you eliminate the noise of the talking heads.

You don’t want to miss Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook, E-available now!

Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

Mish’s Picks are already up 10-20% outperforming the SPY!

Want to take advantage of her stellar track record and ensure a profitable trading year? For more detailed trading information, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more about Mish’s Premium trading service.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In StockCharts TV’s Charting Forward 2023, Mish sits down with a round table panel of experts for an open discussion about the things they are seeing in, and hearing about, the markets.

Mish presents her 2023 Outlook and gives you 6 trading ideas from Macro to Micro on the Thursday, January 12 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five.

Mish and John discuss how equities and commodities can rally together, up to a point, in this appearance on Bloomberg BNN.

Mish and the team discuss her outlook and why inflation will persist, with a focus on gold, in this appearance on Benzinga.

While the weekly charts still say bear market rally, Mish and and host Dave Keller discuss the promise of the daily charts on the Tuesday, January 10 edition of The Final Bar (full video here).

In this appearance on Business First AM, Mish discusses the worldwide inflation worries.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): Closed above the 200-DMA, now has to stay above and clear 400.Russell 2000 (IWM): Can this get through 190? A gamechanger if it does.Dow (DIA): Dec high 348.22 now looms.Nasdaq (QQQ): Confirmed recuperation phase and right at the 200-WMA resistance of 281.Regional Banks (KRE): Still the most concerning sector, with 60 pivotal and under 57 lights out. Needs to clear 65 to stay in the game.Semiconductors (SMH): Another nail-biter, stopping right at the 50-WMA or 226.Transportation (IYT): Also stopped at the 50-WMA or 231.50.Biotechnology (IBB): 138.74 December high the place to clear, with 130 key support.Retail (XRT): Amazing how the Jan 6-month range and these 50-WMAs line up in the Economic Modern Family. 66.70 to clear and hold if good.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

President Biden has hired Bob Bauer, a former Obama administration figure and husband of a senior White House adviser, as his personal lawyer as the Justice Department probes the storage of classified documents.

The White House on Friday confirmed to Fox News that Bauer will represent Biden personally as the special counsel investigates the storage of classified documents at the president’s Wilmington, Delaware, home and his office at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, D.C. 

Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Robert Hur to investigate the classified documents — which date back to Biden’s time as vice president — that Biden’s lawyers had discovered in a private office in D.C. as well as the president’s home and garage.

In his announcement Thursday, Garland said: ‘This morning, President Biden’s personal counsel called [U.S. Attorney John Lausch] and stated that an additional document bearing classification markings was identified at the President’s personal residence in Wilmington, Delaware.’

Bauer is an entrenched figure in Washington, D.C., and Democratic Party politics, having served under multiple presidents and previously worked with the prestigious law firm Perkins Coie LLP. His former clients and bosses include former President Barack Obama and the Democratic National Committee (DNC).

He was named White House counsel for Obama in 2009, and general counsel for the former president’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns. He was also co-counsel to the New Hampshire State Senate in the trial of Chief Justice David Brock in 2000, and counsel to the Democratic leader in the impeachment trial of former President Bill Clinton in 1999.

Bauer returned to private practice in 2011. In 2013, Obama named him to be co-chair of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration.

Bauer and Perkins Coie represented both the DNC and Obama personally, before he was tapped as Obama’s counsel at the White House. Bauer received a waiver from the Obama administration’s ethics pledge in 2010 when he left Perkins Coie and took the White House counsel post, given that he had previously represented the president and DNC. 

Bauer left the White House counsel spot in 2011 and returned to Perkins Coie, where he advised Obama’s 2012 re-election bid.

‘[Bauer] has exceptional judgment, wisdom, and intellect, and he will continue to be one of my close advisers,’ Obama said in a statement announcing Bauer’s departure.

During Obama’s second term, Bauer was appointed to the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 

Bauer is a professor at the New York University School of Law, a contributing editor of legal blog Lawfare and frequent contributor of opinion pieces for national publications. During Biden’s 2020 campaign, Bauer played the role of former President Donald Trump in mock debates, Fox News reported at the time.

In the Biden administration, Bauer served as co-chair into the president’s commission looking into potential reforms of the Supreme Court after Democrats began calling for court packing to limit the power of justices appointed under Republicans.

Baur’s wife, Anita Dunn, currently serves as a senior adviser to Biden, assisting ‘in advancing the President’s policy and communications objectives,’ according to the White House. Dunn was also a key fixture of the Obama White House, serving as communications director.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Friday signed into law sweeping reproductive health care legislation to protect out-of-state abortion seekers, adding Illinois to the list of states that have placed legal reinforcements around the procedure after the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.

In addition to shielding reproductive and gender-affirming health care patients and providers from legal action originating across state lines, the act will also protect the Illinois licenses of health care providers licensed in multiple states who provide treatment legal in Illinois but may cost them their license in a state where it’s not. The measure also prevents insurers from charging more for out-of-network care when in-network providers object to treatment on moral grounds.

‘Here in Illinois, we know that reproductive care is health care,’ Pritzker said. ‘A medical decision should be made between a patient and their health care provider.’

Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision in June left abortion legalization up to the states, Planned Parenthood of Illinois has seen people seeking treatment from 33 states, compared with 10 to 15 before the ruling. Planned Parenthood spokesperson Mary Jane Maharry said roughly 30% of its patients are from outside of Illinois, compared to about 6% pre-Dobbs.

Following the high court’s decree, many Illinois lawmakers and advocacy groups urged Pritzker to call a special legislative session to bolster Illinois’ protections. Instead, House Speaker Emanuel ‘Chris’ Welch formed working groups on abortion and other top priorities, including one which led to a ban on semiautomatic weapons Pritzker signed into law Tuesday.

The so-called Dobbs Decision working group was led by Chicago Democratic Rep. Kelly Cassidy. Speaking before a dozen lawmakers and advocates at Pritzker’s Chicago news conference, she proclaimed the law just the beginning.

‘We will have to respond to the new ways that bully states will come up with to attack patients and providers,’ Cassidy said. ‘Our mission is clear: If you want to come after people seeking care or their providers, if your mission is to torment trans kids and their families, you’re going to have to get through all of us first.’

Mary Kate Zander, head of anti-abortion organization Illinois Right to Life, said the governor’s ‘pro-abortion legacy is, in practice, harming women and depriving unborn children of an opportunity at life. This may be politically expedient for Gov. Pritzker today, but it won’t age well.’

But the measure’s Senate sponsor, Democratic Sen. Celina Villanueva of Chicago, said such sensitive decisions should be left to individuals.

‘This legislation consolidates Illinois as an island that protects reproductive and gender-affirming rights in the Midwest,’ Villaneuva said. ‘It places our state at the forefront of a nation for granting people the freedom to make their life decisions.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Republicans have officially opened an investigation into the Biden administration’s chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2021.

Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Michael McCaul renewed a request for documents related to the withdrawal on Thursday in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken, saying that past requests have gone unanswered for over a year. 

‘It is absurd and disgraceful that the Biden administration has repeatedly denied our longstanding oversight requests and continues to withhold information related to the withdrawal,’ McCaul said in a statement. 

‘In the event of continued noncompliance, the Committee will use the authorities available to it to enforce these requests as necessary, including through a compulsory process,’ he added. 

UN CONDEMNS TALIBAN BANS ON WOMEN, THREATENS TO SUSPEND CRITICAL AID 

McCaul continued that as chairman of the committee he takes ‘this obligation very seriously and will pursue this investigation until all our questions are answered and all parties responsible are held accountable. We owe this to the American people, especially our service members and veterans.’ 

The State Department told The Hill it had responded to thousands of requests for information on the withdrawal, had provided more than 150 bipartisan briefings to congress members and was committed to working with the committee.

The State Department didn’t immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment. 

As the U.S. military worked to get Americans out of Afghanistan, 13 U.S. service members were killed in a terrorist bombing at the Kabul airport on August 26, 2021. More than 100 Afghans were also killed. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

In this week’s edition of Moxie Indicator Minutes, volatility products, breadth indicators, and individual tickers are showing TG that there is strength coming into the market. Is it the end of the Bear? We can’t yet say, but there are trades setting up that you should be ready for. Lets dive in!

This video was originally broadcast on January 13, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, iOS, Chromecast, Android, and more!

New episodes of Moxie Indicator Minutes air Fridays at 12pm ET on StockCharts TV. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link.

Chickens may not be able to fly very far, but the price of eggs is soaring.

A lingering bird flu outbreak, combined with soaring feed, fuel and labor costs, has led to U.S. egg prices more than doubling over the past year, and hatched a lot of sticker shock on grocery aisles.

The national average price for a dozen eggs hit $3.59 in November, up from $1.72 a year earlier, according to the latest government data. That’s putting stress on consumer budgets and the bottom lines of restaurants, bakeries and other food producers that rely heavily on eggs.

Grocery prices that were up 12% in November are driving inflation higher, even though the overall pace of price increases slowed a bit through the fall as gas prices eased.

But egg prices are up significantly more than other foods — even more than chicken or turkey — because egg farmers were hit harder by the bird flu. More than 43 million of the 58 million birds slaughtered over the past year to control the virus have been egg-laying chickens, including some farms with more than a million birds apiece in major egg-producing states like Iowa.

Everyone who approaches the egg case a Hy-Vee grocery store in Omaha, “has a sour face,” said shopper Nancy Stom.

But even with the cost increases, eggs remain relatively cheap compared to the price of other proteins like chicken or beef, with a pound of chicken breasts going for $4.42 on average in November and a pound of ground beef selling for $4.85, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It’s still an inexpensive meal,” Stom said. But the 70-year-old said that at these prices, she’ll watch her eggs more closely in the fridge and try not to let them go bad before they get used.

If prices remain this high, Kelly Fischer said she will start thinking more seriously about building a backyard chicken coop in Chicago because everyone in her family eats eggs.

“We (with neighbors) are contemplating building a chicken coop behind our houses, so eventually I hope not to buy them and have my own eggs and I think the cost comes into that somewhat,” the 46-year-old public school teacher said while shopping at HarvesTime Foods on the city’s North Side. “For me, it’s more of the environmental impact and trying to purchase locally.”

In some places, it can even be hard to find eggs on the shelves. But egg supplies overall are holding up because the total flock is only down about 5% from from its normal size of around 320 million hens. Farmers have been working to replace their flocks as soon as they can after an outbreak.

Jakob Werner, 18, said he tries to find the cheapest eggs he can because he eats five or six of them a day while he’s trying to gain weight and build muscle.

“For a while, I just stopped eating eggs as they got more expensive. But since they’re my favorite food, I came back to them in the end,” said Werner, who lives in Chicago. “So I think for like a few months I just stopped eating eggs, waited for the price to come down. It never did. So now I’m buying again.”

A customer checks for broken eggs before purchasing at a supermarket in Los Angeles on Sunday.I RYU / VCG via Getty VCG via Getty Images

Purdue University agricultural economist Jayson Lusk said he believes the bird flu outbreak is the biggest driver in the price increases. Unlike past years, the virus lingered throughout the summer and made a resurgence last fall infecting egg and poultry farms.

But she said bird flu remains a wildcard that could still drive prices higher if there are more sizeable outbreaks at egg farms.

Farmers are doing all they can to limit the spread, but the disease is easily spread by migrating wild birds and the virus can be picked up on clothing or vehicles.

“But there are some things that are just outside of our control,” Thompson said. “You can’t control nature sometimes.”

Food producers and restaurants are hurting because it’s hard to find a good substitute for eggs in their recipes.

Any decrease in egg prices would be welcome at Patti Stobaugh’s two restaurants and two bakeries in Conway and Russelville, Arkansas, because all of her ingredients and supplies are more expensive these days. For some of her baked goods, Stobaugh has switched to a frozen egg product that’s not quite as pricey, but she’s still buying eggs for all the breakfasts she serves.

A case of 15 dozen eggs has gone from $36 to $86 over the last year, but flour, butter, chicken and everything else she buys is also more expensive. Stobaugh said that has her “hyper vigilant about every little item.”

She’s already increased her prices 8% in the past year, and she may have to soon increase them again. It’s a delicate balance of trying not to make it too expensive for people to eat out and hurting sales, but she doesn’t have much choice while trying to provide for her 175 employees.

“We have a lot of employees that work for us and we’re responsible for making payroll every week and supporting their families. We take that very seriously. But it certainly has been tough,” Stobaugh said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Southwest Airlines is looking at all options to ensure the operational meltdown it suffered last month is not repeated, Chief Executive Bob Jordan said on Thursday.

The Dallas-based carrier has been dealing with customer outrage and regulatory scrutiny after a systems meltdown last month left thousands of passengers stranded.

Southwest has hired consultancy Oliver Wyman to investigate the disruption, Jordan told Reuters in an interview.

“I have put everything on the table here because it just can’t happen again,” he said.

A severe winter storm right before Christmas, coupled with Southwest’s dated technology, led to the cancellation of more than 16,000 flights. The airline had long cultivated a reputation for reliable customer service, humorous flight crews and low-cost flights.

Southwest’s board has set up a new Operations Review Committee to oversee management following last month’s systems collapse, Jordan said.

Asked about his job security, he said: “I’m not focused on that one bit, and at the end of the day, that’s not up to me in any case.”

“There are a lot of reasons that this happened, but it’s on me at the end of the day,” Jordan said. “It’s on me to not let this happen again and to rebuild trust with our employees and rebuild trust with our customers, and we will do exactly that.”

Jordan, who took the airline’s helm last February, is under pressure from investors to win over customers. To mollify them, the carrier has awarded customers affected by the meltdown 25,000 Rapid Rewards points, equivalent to more than $300, as a goodwill gesture, and has also launched a fare sale.

Jordan said New York-based Oliver Wyman is interviewing company staff and union members to reconstruct the recent debacle in order to identify gaps in the carrier’s operations.

Meanwhile, the company has put in interim measures to avoid a repeat, he said. General Electric Co (GE.N) is updating the company’s software, which will automate its crew scheduling systems, he said.

GE said the current software Southwest uses “performed as designed” during the problems last month. “We are working with them to define new functionality as they improve their crew rescheduling capability,” it said in a statement.

Southwest has also put together a new team of trained employees who can be cross-utilized to manage rescheduling crew during a disruption that requires significant schedule changes. Jordan said the company activated this group during the Federal Aviation Administration nationwide ground stop on Wednesday.

The airline is processing tens of thousands of customer reimbursements a day, he added. With the exception of 1% of bags, the airline has delivered to customer all the luggage that went missing.

Jordan defended the airline’s point-to-point business model, which allows customers to fly directly from smaller cities without having to stop and change planes at major hubs like Chicago and New York. He said last month’s disruption was not due to the structure, but said the airline could set up more crew bases if Oliver Wyman recommends that.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Friday that the bank is preparing for a potential recession in 2023, including a scenario where unemployment rises rapidly.

“Our baseline scenario contemplates a mild recession. … But we also add to that a downside scenario, and what this results in is 95% of our reserve methodology is weighted toward a recessionary environment in 2023,” Moynihan said on a call with investors.

That pessimistic case, which is more negative than it was last quarter, calls for unemployment to rise to 5.5% early this year and remain at 5% or above through the end of 2024, Moynihan said.

The CEO’s statement mirrors the earnings report for JPMorgan Chase, whose economic outlook calls for “a mild recession in the central case.”

Bank of America beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its fourth quarter, but its $1.1 billion provision for credit losses was a sharp reversal from a negative number in that metric a year ago.

While the bank said net credit charge offs are still below pre-pandemic levels, outstanding balances on credit cards are up 14% year over year, and Moynihan said delinquencies are rising from their unusually low pandemic levels.

Shares of Bank of America were up less than 1% on Friday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

During Tony Dungy’s first interview with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1996, he was asked why he thought he had interviewed for so many NFL head coaching jobs and never gotten one.  

Dungy, then 40, was exasperated. In the previous decade, he had interviewed just four times. And during two of those interviews, he had been told by team brass that their ideal head coaching candidate had a completely different skillset than his own — offensive expertise, for example, or previous head coaching experience.

‘I had four, and two of them for sure I wasn’t going to get, because I wasn’t what they were looking for,’ Dungy recalled.

Now an analyst with NBC Sports, he brings up his early interviews not because he holds any ill will toward the teams or executives involved, but because the experience illustrates a frustrating catch-22 that is still present in the NFL coaching world — especially for coaches of color. 

‘When you interview minority candidates, if you really don’t have an interest in hiring them, then it becomes a stain on (their) resume,’ Dungy explained. ‘You’ve interviewed 10 times and didn’t get selected, so something must be wrong.’

Follow every game: Latest NFL Scores and Schedules

With this year’s NFL coaching carousel now in full swing, USA TODAY Sports set out to examine this issue and others by compiling data on head coaching hires in the two decades since the 2003 implementation of the Rooney Rule, which requires NFL teams to interview minority candidates for top positions. USA TODAY Sports also tracked head-coaching interviews over the same time period, using contemporaneous news reports and team announcements. 

The data shows that, from 2003 to 2022, interview opportunities for coaches of color were concentrated among a relatively small group of candidates — familiar faces who were interviewed over and over again for head-coaching roles and, in a majority of cases, not hired. 

USA TODAY Sports found that a group of just four Black coaches — Eric Bieniemy, Todd Bowles, Jim Caldwell and Leslie Frazier — accounted for nearly 25% of the publicly-reported interview opportunities given to non-white coaches since the implementation of the Rooney Rule.

Bieniemy, the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive coordinator, has interviewed for at least 15 jobs and not been hired as a head coach.

‘Obviously, the Rooney Rule isn’t working,’ said Michael Locksley, the president and founder of the National Coalition of Minority Football Coaches and head coach at the University of Maryland. ‘It came from a good place, but obviously because of the numbers, it hasn’t created the opportunities that we all thought it would create.

‘… You see the same guys being recycled, the same guys interviewing. It’s not that they’re not qualified. Some of them are just being interviewed to basically fulfill a requirement. And we’re not for that.’

NFL representatives have said they are taking numerous steps to foster diverse hiring practices across the organization. Over the past three years, the league has expanded the Rooney Rule to require two minority candidates interview for head-coaching jobs, and broadened it to apply to coordinator and quarterback coach positions. 

Thanks at least in part to those efforts, USA TODAY Sports found non-white coaches have received a significantly larger share of interview opportunities in recent years — including about 40% of all head coach interviews from 2019 to 2022. 

Those additional interviews, however, have not led to a noticeable uptick in hires. Only six of the 29 vacancies during that four-year period (~21%) went to non-white coaches.

‘That was one of the anticipated outcomes that I think we all believed when the Rooney Rule was put in place — that more opportunities to interview would lead to more job hirings of minorities,’ said Rod Graves, executive director of the Fritz Pollard Alliance. ‘And that hasn’t necessarily been the case.’

IN DEPTH REPORTING: Read more of USA TODAY’s NFL Coaches Project

‘No rhyme or reason for it’

According to USA TODAY Sports research, no coach has interviewed more frequently over the past two decades than Bowles, the current head coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 59-year-old, who is Black, has been up for at least 19 head coaching jobs over eight hiring cycles and been hired twice, most recently last year as the internal successor to Bruce Arians.

Five other Black coaches have interviewed for 10 jobs or more since 2003. Two have yet to be hired: Bieniemy and Pittsburgh Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin (10). Spokespeople for their respective teams declined to make them available for interviews, and their agents did not respond to messages seeking comment.

‘You can’t say for sure (if race was a factor),’ Austin told The Associated Press in 2021, of why he has yet to be hired. ‘Maybe I’m not what the owners see when they look in the mirror and they see leadership positions.’

Josh McDaniels (16 interviews) and Adam Gase (12 interviews) have been among the most frequently interviewed white coaches. Each has been hired twice.

Among the other findings in USA TODAY Sports’ data:

► From 2003 to 2022, a total of 57 coaches of color interviewed for at least one NFL head coaching job, compared to 159 white coaches. That’s about three white candidates for every candidate of color.

► The coaches of color in that candidate pool, however, received more interviews on average (4.5 interviews per coach) than their white counterparts (3.2).

► Coaches of color received about 33% of the 769 publicly-reported interviews for head coach positions from 2003 to 2022. They were hired to fill 19.5% of those vacancies.

► Of the nine coaches who have interviewed for the most jobs since 2003 without being hired as a head coach, seven of them are Black. (Darrell Bevell and Russ Grimm are the others.)

USA TODAY Sports’ data does not include clandestine interviews, nor reflect multiple interviews conducted with the same team during the same coaching search — i.e., second-round and finalist interviews.

It also excludes three hires made as part of internal succession plans, and a fourth — the Chiefs’ hiring of Todd Haley in 2009 — for which no public information is available.

‘Watching this thing unfold for 35 years, it’s better — the league is much better. But the hiring process is always a mystery,’ former NFL coach and ESPN analyst Herm Edwards said. 

‘It’s not anybody’s fault. I’m not blaming any coach who got hired over another coach. But there’s no rhyme or reason for it, with how people do things.’

Hurting your chances by interviewing too much

Dungy got his first interview for a head-coaching job with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1986. He was just 30 years old. ‘I didn’t know what I was doing,’ he said.

Over the next few years, he was frequently mentioned as one of the premier head-coaching candidates in the NFL — a safe bet to become one of the first Black coaches to get a top job. But in nine years, he only received three more interviews, two of which left him convinced he never had a realistic shot in the first place.

In 1988, at the end of his interview with Green Bay Packers executive Tom Braatz, Dungy said he asked Braatz to describe his ideal candidate for the team’s head-coaching vacancy. Braatz told him it would be an offensive-minded coach who had previous head-coaching experience. Dungy was neither.

Then, in 1994, Dungy said he wrapped up an interview with new Jacksonville Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver by asking the same question. This time, Dungy was told the Jaguars wanted a head coach who could also be the general manager. He had no interest or experience in holding both roles.

‘You’re a little frustrated. You think, ‘Gosh, I didn’t really have a chance at this,” Dungy said. ‘Can you really blow the owner away and get the job, or is it just a quick perfunctory thing so I can say I filled out the requirement of the rule?’

Dungy said his fourth interview of that stretch, which was again with the Eagles, illustrates the complexity of that question. When owner Jeffrey Lurie described his ideal candidate, Dungy thought he sounded like a perfect fit. He said he called his wife, convinced he would ultimately get the job. Instead, Lurie diverged from his plan and hired Ray Rhodes, who is also Black.

‘I don’t think Ray Rhodes was necessarily what Jeff Lurie was looking for,’ Dungy said. ‘Ray kind of blew Jeff away.’

Arizona State athletic director Ray Anderson, who was Dungy’s agent at the time, said he doesn’t remember the specifics of those early interviews. But he knows there were plenty of teams at the time who interviewed Black coaches just to check a box — ‘(more) than will ever be known publicly,’ he said.

As an agent representing Black coaches, Anderson said he often cautioned his clients to be strategic about which — and how many — interview offers to accept, even for head-coaching roles. Pass on a legitimate opportunity and it might mean losing out on a dream job, but take too many illegitimate ones and it could hurt you. 

‘If you’re not hired, then you run the risk of one of the 32 owners saying, ‘I don’t want to hire a coach who, very frankly, was rejected by three or four other teams already,’ ‘ said Anderson, who later served on the working committee that helped develop the Rooney Rule during his time as an executive with the Atlanta Falcons.

‘That’s the real dilemma, when you have so few opportunities.’

No blueprint for hiring a head coach

For Dungy, this issue gets at the heart of the Rooney Rule — and the late Dan Rooney’s intentions when helping to craft it.

The assumption was that NFL owners, like Rooney, would have a blueprint or set of qualifications they were looking for in a head coach when embarking on a search. If a rule required them to interview a coach of color, the idea went, they would naturally interview a coach who fit that blueprint — and maybe it would lead to them getting hired.

In reality, Dungy said, many owners have no idea what sort of tangible characteristics they want in a head coach.

Others have a clear blueprint, then turn around and interview coaches who don’t fit it.

The Hall of Fame coach mentioned a conversation he had with one executive during the 2021 hiring cycle, who said his team’s owner was set on hiring a young coach with offensive expertise who could help develop their quarterback. Dungy later saw the team interviewed Bowles, a veteran coach who specializes in defense.

N. Jeremi Duru, the author of ‘Advancing the Ball: Race, Reformation, and the Quest for Equal Coaching Opportunity in the NFL,’ said the small pool of frequently-interviewed minority coaches reflects a broader theme — that owners want to feel comfortable around the men they interview and hire.

‘Generally speaking (among) club owners — an almost racially homogenous group — there tends to be less comfort with candidates of color. And among candidates of color, I think there’s often less comfort with new candidates,’ said Duru, a law professor at American University.

‘I think there may be comfort around some candidates and, as a consequence, they get recycled for multiple interviews. Other candidates have a harder time getting them.’

Graves said he generally views an uptick in minority interviews, even among a small group, as a step in the right direction because it means they are getting more exposure.

But he acknowledged it can become problematic in cases like Bieniemy’s, where a coach is interviewed over and over again without getting a job — raising questions about preparedness, or creating a stigma that the coach doesn’t interview well.

‘How many white candidates have been in the same position, where we’ve seen them take six, seven interviews or more and never have gotten a job?’ Graves asked. ‘And are they treated differently, in terms of their perception about their preparedness and ability to coach at a higher level?’

Trying to eliminate so-called sham interviews

In a wide-ranging conversation with USA TODAY Sports in September, NFL officials pointed to a number of policies they have implemented in recent years in an effort to bolster hiring practices in the league.

In addition to expanding the Rooney Rule, the league now requires inclusive hiring training for team personnel who are involved in the interview and hiring processes. It’s created networking events and an ‘accelerator’ program to help non-white coaches get face time with team owners. And every year, its football operations team compiles a ‘ready list,’ with data and information on top minority coaching candidates.

NFL executive vice president and chief administrative officer Dasha Smith also said the league carefully monitors the head coach interview process, doing what it can to identify and eliminate so-called sham interviews. She acknowledged, however, it is often ‘very difficult to know’ which ones are illegitimate.

‘We try to put everything in place so we can look at some objective metrics to try to ensure that it’s not perfunctory, if you will,’ Smith said in September. ‘So that is: Who’s in the room? How long are the interviews? Are they in-person, are they (via) Zoom? … And then we also reach out to the candidates who’ve been part of the process and ask them how they felt about the interview.’

Sham interviews are at the crux of the discrimination lawsuit that a trio of Black coaches — Brian Flores, Ray Horton and Steve Wilks — filed against the NFL and some of its teams last year.

Flores alleged in the lawsuit that the New York Giants had already decided to hire Brian Daboll when they interviewed him for their head-coaching vacancy last year. The Giants denied the claim, saying Flores ‘was in the conversation to be our head coach until the eleventh hour’ but they felt Daboll was the better fit.

Flores has interviewed for at least nine jobs over three hiring cycles, according to USA TODAY Sports research, and he’s been hired once — as head coach of the Miami Dolphins in 2019. The team fired him after 2021, and he spent this season with the Steelers. It is unclear if he will receive consideration for open head-coaching jobs during the current hiring cycle.

Dungy said his hope, this year and beyond, is not just that well-known coaches like Flores will get more legitimate interviews and head-coaching opportunities. It’s also that young Black assistants, who have never interviewed for a head job, will be included in the candidate pool and given a chance to wow owners.

As a comparison, Dungy mentioned Zac Taylor, a white coach who was a relative unknown before the Cincinnati Bengals hired him in 2019.

‘There’s some Black Zac Taylors out there, but they’re not going to get those opportunities — or they haven’t,’ he said.

‘How do you get the young, up-and-coming, unknown Black assistants interviews? That to me is where we can make progress.’

Contact Tom Schad at tschad@usatoday.com or on Twitter @Tom_Schad.

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