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GOP Rep. George Santos, N.Y., had dismissed calls to resign from his campaign staff after a routine background check revealed he fabricated parts of his background.

Santos’ staff had hired an opposition research firm in late 2021 to conduct a ‘vulnerability study’ on him, which found no evidence of the then-candidate’s purported degrees from Baruch College and New York University, according to The New York Times.

The firm also found records of his evictions, a suspended Florida driver’s license, his involvement with a company accused of a Ponzi scheme and that Santos had been married to a woman despite claiming to be gay.

The findings prompted some members of Santos’ staff to demand he drop out of his congressional race, warning that he could otherwise be humiliated.

But Santos dismissed the background check results and decided to stay in the race, resulting in resignations from most of his campaign team. He then hired new campaign staff members by the spring of last year.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which works to elect Democrats to the House, compiled 87 pages of opposition research on Santos ahead of his race against Democrat Robert Zimmerman that discovered some of the findings the research firm found.

The DCCC found evidence of his evictions, a pet charity associated with him that was not registered with the IRS, his connections to the alleged Ponzi scheme and discrepancies in his financial disclosure forms. 

Yet, despite Zimmerman’s campaign having access to the DCCC report on Santos, the Democrat decided not to spend campaign funds on additional research into Santos’ background. Instead, Zimmerman’s campaign hit Santos over his views on abortion and the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot.

Santos ended up defeating Zimmerman in the election in November and a month later, The New York Times published a report detailing Santos’ lies.

During an interview with the New York Post, he subsequently admitted to fabricating his work and education history. He also acknowledged that he lied about owning 13 properties and that he had been married to a woman prior to his first congressional campaign in 2020, although he says he is now a happily married gay man.

Some Republican and Democratic members of Congress have called for Santos to resign over his fabrications. New York State Republicans have also urged the freshman lawmaker to step down. 

He is expected to be investigated by the House Ethics Committee and is currently being looked into at the local, state and federal level in connection to the funding of his House campaign.

And Brazilian authorities reopened an investigation into Santos over allegations of check fraud in connection with a 2008 incident tied to a stolen checkbook.

Santos said that he would resign this week if the 142,000 people who voted for him asked him to do so.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A Republican in the House of Representatives will be forming a new caucus to take on ‘wokeness’ across the country, which presents the ‘greatest domestic threat to America today,’ he said.

Rep. Jim Banks, R-Ind., announced Friday that he will be creating the ‘first-ever Anti-Woke Caucus’ to take on political correctness groups, which he said have formed a ‘tyranny’ that is vastly changing America through ‘indoctrination.’

He added: ‘The most toxic part of this tyranny is its doctrine — ’wokeness.’’

So, he’s taking action: ‘This Congress, I will create the first-ever Anti-Woke Caucus.’ 

‘Wokeness is especially prevalent and dangerous at universities and in primary schools because the Left recognized students as the most vulnerable and useful targets for indoctrination,’ Banks wrote in an op-ed for American Mind titled’Fighting the Woke Agenda in Congress.’ 

In the op-ed, he detailed what he believes America and Congress must do to reclaim its standards and practices from those who seek to erase them.

‘This utterly un-American doctrine would be comical were it not so powerful. And it is powerful because it is enforced not only by every major national institution. It is promoted and funded by the federal government itself,’ he said.

‘The Biden administration imposes these beliefs in schools, in the military, in government agencies and in the private sector. It not only wants us to hate each other. It is funding this hatred and fanning its flames. What do you think will be left of our nation once more and more people accept wokeness and act on its principles?’ the Republicans pondered.

Banks speculated in the op-ed that America has not yet seen how far the ‘public humiliation’ will go and what other facets of society could become their next targets. He also said this movement is not impeded by facts ‘but must be believed.’

‘The nation’s most powerful forces—our intelligence agencies, corporations, the press, our universities, and even our military—are all pressing further and further into uncharted territory from which it’s not clear America can return,’ he said.

‘Everyone has by now heard this word, but it means something very specific. It means that all the so-called oppressor groups must be punished for their past and present alleged sins. There are many steps to punishing them: inducing self-hatred through indoctrination, stripping away their rights by not enforcing the laws on their behalf, public humiliation, hatred, expropriation, and ultimately violence,’ the Indiana Republican wrote.

‘That’s what the Left has done so far. It’s not exactly clear yet how far this can go,’ he added.

Banks wrote, ‘And what does wokeness mean for the so-called oppressed? It means privileged status, exemption from certain laws and norms, and the public recognition that their views are unimpeachable—they cannot be contradicted by reason, they cannot be doubted, but must be believed.’

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In the op-ed, Banks suggested a movement to limit free speech, change America’s traditions, and rewrite her history — which the lawmaker called an ‘utterly un-American doctrine’ — would be ‘comical’ if it were not ‘so powerful.’

Republican governors, including Ron DeSantis of Florida and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, have announced they intend to push back on indoctrination in their respective states.

The Republican also compiled a list of actions Congress should take to oppose further ‘wokeness’ from permeating society.

‘The new House Republican majority can and will fight institutionalized wokeness. The path forward is clear so long as we act confidently, as our voters demand,’ he wrote.

‘First, House Republicans should pass legislation to rescind Executive Order 13985, Biden’s equity Executive Order that directed every single federal agency to produce an ‘Equity Action Plan,’’ the essay continued. ‘Chuck Schumer would certainly strike it down, but it’s important for Republicans to make a unified statement in opposition to the Left’s abandonment of equality under the law.’

Banks then plainly said: ‘Second, Congress must stop funding wokeness.’

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The Republican admitted his party was also at fault in approving funds geared towards empowering ‘woke institutions and activities.’

He said Congress approved more money to these groups in 2017 and 2018, when Republicans controlled Congress, than when Democrats retook the majority in 2019 and 2020. 

‘This Congress, we should aim to eliminate all such funding,’ he said.

Banks continued: ‘Third, we should use our oversight power to question woke federal officials and woke companies.’

And, ‘Finally, anti-woke House Republicans should organize.’

The Republican said his new caucus will ‘regularly host meetings with anti-woke legislators and subject-matter experts’ to understand better ‘the long tentacles of the wokeness regime, the laws, regulations, and funding sources which support it.’

Concluding the op-ed, Banks called the ‘woke’ movement the ‘greatest domestic threat to America today.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

After Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s office blasted the National Hockey League for hosting a ‘discriminatory’ job fair that only allows certain groups of people to attend, the league backtracked and said the event is open to all individuals over 18-years-old.

The event, titled ‘Pathway to Hockey Summit’ is scheduled for on Feb. 2 during the 2023 All Star Festivities in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and seeks to help ‘diverse job seekers who are pursuing careers in hockey.’

According to a now-deleted post by the NHL promoting the event on LinkedIn, the event is only open to certain groups of people.

‘Participants must be 18 years of age or older, based in the U.S., and identify as female, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic/Latino, Indigenous, LGBTQIA+, and/or a person with a disability. Veterans are also welcome and encouraged to attend,’ the event description states. 

In a statement, Bryan Griffin, press secretary for DeSantis, said that the event is discriminatory.

‘Discrimination of any sort is not welcome in the state of Florida, and we do not abide by the woke notion that discrimination should be overlooked if applied in a politically popular manner or against a politically unpopular demographic. We are fighting all discrimination in our schools and our workplaces, and we will fight it in publicly accessible places of meeting or activity,’ Griffin said.

Griffin also said that the NHL should ‘immediately remove and denounce the discriminatory prohibitions it has imposed on attendance to the 2023 ‘Pathway to Hockey’ summit.’

In a statement to Fox News Digital, the NHL said the ‘original wording of the LinkedIn post associated with the event was not accurate.’

‘The Pathway to Hockey Summit is an informational and networking event designed to encourage all individuals to consider a career in our game – and, in particular, alert those who might not be familiar with hockey to the opportunities it offers,’ the NHL spokesperson said.

The NHL deleted the event posting from its LinkedIn account on Friday night.

In a further clarification, the spokesperson said the event is open to anyone ages 18 and older.

Several hockey teams are sending representatives to the event, including the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Anaheim Ducks, Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken, Washington Capitals, and the Carolina Hurricanes.

‘The day will be filled with guest speakers and panelists, networking opportunities, and more!,’ the post says of the event.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

As the week ends, let’s use GoNoGo Charts to get a sense of market moves.

The chart below shows the $SPY with daily prices and the full suite of single security GoNoGo Indicators applied. As we can see, price has rallied this week and caused GoNoGo Trend to paint a string of amber “Go Fish” bars. In the lower panel, we see that GoNoGo Oscillator broke above the zero line, signaling that momentum had shifted away from the NoGo, and that led to the color change in price. We will look to see if GoNoGo Trend can move into “Go” bars if price goes higher.

As we zoom out and look at the weekly chart below, we see that there is the same uncertainty on the longer time frame chart. This week’s price action is causing GoNoGo Trend to paint an amber “Go Fish” bar here as well as the “NoGo” trend loses its steam. Of course, price could move lower and the indicator could revert to painting “NoGo” bars again, but we are seeing an inflection point as the market tries to set a higher low. The GoNoGo Oscillator shows that there is little directional momentum as the tug of war between buyers and sellers continues. With the oscillator stuck at the zero line, it will be important to note if this level becomes support, in which case we may see price move higher still.

Let’s turn to some GoNoGo RelMaps to understand where the performance is coming from, as we see the signs of a market moving towards a more risk-on environment. Below, we have a GoNoGo RelMap showing the Morningstar 9 style boxes. These tickers can be easily found on StockCharts. What is clear is that the outperformance of late has been from Value stocks, mostly large- and mid-cap. The top three panels here are large-, mid-, and small-cap value. The bottom three panels here are the three growth styles, again large-, mid-, and small-cap. We can see how, generally speaking, these growth styles have underperformed.

Finally, the GoNoGo Sector RelMap confirms the above, in that we can see a defensive picture in terms of the sectors within the S&P 500 that are outperforming. The growth sectors $XLK, $XLY, and $XLC are the top three panels, in that order, and you can see the “NoGo” colors mostly prevailing.  The middle of the chart shows the more defensive, value, and industrial sectors such as $XLI, $XLB, $XLE, and $XLF, all painting blue “Go” bars, as well as $XLU and $XLRE. Let’s see what next week brings!

Better Charts. Better Decisions.

Alex Cole

South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem said Thursday the Biden administration has blocked the state from hosting July 4th fireworks at Mt. Rushmore for a third straight year.

‘The best way to celebrate America’s Birthday is with fireworks at Mount Rushmore,’ Noem tweeted. ‘Today, the Biden Administration rejected them. Again.’

2023 marks the third straight year that Noem’s application to host Independence Day fireworks at Mt. Rushmore has been rejected by the National Park Service.

In 2021, the NPS cited reasons relating to the coronavirus, environmental concerns, wildfire risks, and ongoing construction as its reason to deny the permit request to host fireworks at the federal landmark.

The permit request for fireworks was again rejected in 2022, as a letter from the U.S. Department of Interior, Mount Rushmore National Memorial Superintendent Michelle Wheatley stated that wildfire conditions could create a high likelihood of a fire, also citing opposition from Native American tribes.

‘There is ample documented opposition for the Tribes to the 2020 event, and we understand from ongoing meetings with the Tribes that these concerns have not diminished,’ Wheatley wrote in the letter.

Noem sued the Biden administration in April 2021, arguing that the Biden administration has ‘departed from longstanding precedent and reneged on this agreement without any meaningful explanation.’

‘We are asking the court to enjoin the Department of Interior’s (DOI) denial of the fireworks permit and order it to issue a permit for the event expeditiously,’ Noem said.

The lawsuit was tossed by a federal judge, who argued that federal officials had the right to block the fireworks from taking place.

During the summer of 2020, under former President Trump, the fireworks were allowed to take place for the first time since 2009.

Fox News’ David Aaro, Brooke Singman, and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Position for the most probable scenario, but plan for alternative scenarios.

Why is this a sentence that should be printed out and taped to your monitor, now if not sooner? Because, as investors we often become very tied to a particular narrative. 

The Fed is wrapping up its tightening cycle and then it’s off to the races!

This recession is going to be way worse than anyone expects.

Earnings are going to solid this quarter, and the market will pound higher.

There’s no way we break above the August high.

There’s no way we go below the October low.

Market history is filled with events that wise and experienced investors never thought would happen. So how do we combat this reality of the financial markets?

Well first, we need to consider different scenarios. If you’re bullish here, think through the bearish argument. If you’re all bearish with a portfolio full of short positions, list out the reasons why the market could go higher and think through those possibilities.

A novice investor becomes married to an investment thesis, goes all in with their positioning, and assumes they’ll be right. An experienced investor thinks through alternative scenarios, positions their portfolio to profit from the most likely scenario, but also develops a good game plan in case their alternate hypothesis become reality.

Let’s review the current chart of the S&P 500 index.

This is one of those times where we can draw a trendline that almost perfectly tracks the downtrend channel displayed by the SPX over the last 12 months. And the first question in any scenario is, “Do we break above trendline resistance?”

After that, we need to consider key levels of support and resistance. What would it take for the S&P to break above 4100? What about the August 2022 high around 4300? On the downside, we have 3800 level which was tested in December, along with the June and October lows at 3650 and 3500.

Here is a chart summarizing four scenarios, followed by a description of each of the four potential outcomes. Which do you see as the most likely, and why?

1. The Uber-Bullish Scenario

This week, I talked with Jeff Hirsch about the Presidential cycle so brilliantly laid out in this year’s Stock Trader’s Almanac. He shared that the pre-election year is usually quite strong in the first half and tends to have a much less bullish average second-half performance.

So, in this first scenario, the S&P blows right through trendline resistance and leaves the 200-day moving average in the dust. Not only that, it powers right through 4100 and also breaks out above 4300, which is the August 2022 high.

What would have to happen for this series of events to play out? Well, the Fed would need to near the end of the tightening cycle. Inflation data would need to show further evidence of an economic slowdown. And interest rates would most likely need to remain lower to give growth stocks an opportunity to rally much further than they have so far.

2. The Mildly Bullish Scenario

In this somewhat less euphoric option, the S&P 500 still breaks above the trendline and moving average resistance, but doesn’t make much headway beyond 4100. Perhaps we retest the August high at 4300, but, by then, the optimism that we have experienced since the October low begins to dissipate.

If the bearish macro headwinds remain in spite of stock market strength, this could be the scenario that plays out. There’s enough upside momentum to push stocks a bit higher, but not enough to make it an obvious raging bull market environment.

Quite simply, the prospects of expected macro headwinds minimize the upside for risk assets.

3. The Mildly Bearish Scenario

Now we’re thinking through a scenario where the market fails to eclipse key resistance, fails to overcome the thick green trendline and fails again to break out above the 200-day moving average.

Perhaps the Fed tightening cycle continues a little longer than expected, or maybe we get some bullish economic indication showing that the economy is not slowing enough, or it could be that this earnings season takes a dark turn as companies project major league headwinds for their businesses in 2023.

For whatever reason, the rally from the October low ends up being just another bear market rally, and the downtrend that began in January 2022 is not yet complete. But in this mildly bearish scenario, we don’t get below the June 2022 low around 3650, and instead we continue this “backing and filling” process that has played out since last May.

4. The Uber-Bearish Scenario

This brings us to the real down, the outcome where things just get really bad really quickly. The market fails to breakout, but then the downtrend is re-initiated and the S&P and Nasdaq retest their 2022 lows. Either or both of these benchmarks probably make a new low for the cycle, and stocks that have seen solid performance in the last 2-3 months stall out and rotate back to a pattern of distribution.

The dreaded “R” word (RECESSION!) came up in my discussion with Tony Dwyer this week, who pointed out that his long-term analysis of yield curve inversions and recessionary periods suggests that the bear market phase is just not over yet. So this fourth scenario means the worst-case outcomes indeed play out, the Fed continues a tightening cycle into mid-2023, and inflation remains a central theme for risk assets.

In this probabilistic analysis, the point is not just to vote on which scenario is most likely (although please head over to my YouTube channel and let me know what you think!) but more about forcing yourself to think through these different outcomes. To have proper risk management, you need to be able to think through potential risks and visualize how they may play out. Only then will you be truly prepared for whatever lies ahead.

Position for the most probable scenario, but plan for alternative scenarios!

More of a video person? You can experience this article in video format over at my YouTube channel.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my YouTube channel!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.   Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

It was a solid week for the markets, with the S&P 500 advancing above its key 200-day moving average, a major area of possible upside resistance. With a positive RSI and Stochastics, the markets are poised to advance further as we enter an earnings season that’s been marked by results being rewarded, despite not being particularly strong.

DAILY CHART OF S&P 500 INDEX

The Consumer Discretionary sector was the top performer, helped by a double-digit rally in retailer Amazon (AMZN), which remains 43% below its 52-week high despite the sharp gain. The stock was upgraded after news that every company can participate in the once-exclusive free, 2-day Prime delivery program.

Other Retail stocks also rallied, as hints of lower inflation, coupled with a Consumer Confidence report that put the number at a 10-month high, pushed the S&P Retail ETF (XRT) into positive territory. The longer-term weekly chart shows the RSI now in positive territory, with the MACD poised to turn positive as well.

WEEKLY CHART OF S&P RETAIL ETF (XRT)

One standout area has been Specialty Retailers that manufacture or sell comfortable footwear. This would include companies such as Crocs Inc. (CROX), which manufactures shoes made with a proprietary plastic material and was one of 2022’s fastest growing brands.

Subscribers to my MEM Edge Report were alerted to the stock in early December, after it was added to our Suggested Holdings List.  Since then, CROX has gained over 20% as analysts continue to raise estimates. Despite healthy gains, the stock trades at only 12 times trailing 4 quarter earnings, which is well below its peers.

DAILY CHART OF CROCS, INC. (CROX)

The running category has been another success story among the footwear industry, as a staggering number of people headed outdoors as gyms closed amid the pandemic. Companies such as Deckers Outdoor (DECK) saw their Hoka brand of sneakers hit the one-billion mark over the past 12 months, in a move that rivals sales in Deckers’ already popular Ugg footwear.

DAILY CHART OF DECKERS OUTDOOR CORP. (DECK)

Well-known footwear company Nike (NKE) is also in a confirmed uptrend, after gapping up in price on the heels of crushing earnings estimates in late December. Management guided growth estimates higher going forward as well, amid increased digital sales and inventory control measures. NKE is approaching an overbought condition at this time.

While each of these Retailers are poised for further upside over time, newer areas within the markets have just begun their ascent, as a rotation int0 Basic Materials and areas of Industrials is pushing select stocks into the beginning stages of an uptrend. If you’d like access to those stocks, use this link here to access a 4-week trial of my twice weekly MEM Edge Report for a nominal fee. You’ll also be alerted to signals that the current bear market rally is reversing so that you can preserve capital ahead of the true market bottom.

Be sure and take advantage of this special offer ahead of next week’s critical economic data and other possible headwinds.

Warmly,

Mary Ellen McGonagle, MEM Investment Research

The Missouri’s House of Representatives kicked off its new session by tightening its dress code and requiring female lawmakers to cover their arms and wear blazers while in the state’s capitol-much to the dismay and outrage of House Democrats. 

Lawmakers met on Wednesday to debate changes to the House rules, as is customary at the start of a new General Assembly every two years. The existing dress code, which was last updated in 2021, states that women are required to wear a ‘dress or skirts or slacks worn with a blazer or sweater and appropriate dress shoes or boots.’ 

Republican state Rep. Ann Kelley proposed an amendment that would require women to wear jackets, defined as both blazers and knit blazers, with dresses, skirts, or slacks, and dress shoes or boots. Kelley stated that the update is necessary because ‘it is essential to always maintain a formal and professional atmosphere.’

She was met by swift opposition from Democrats who called it ‘ridiculous.’

The state House eventually approved a modified version of Kelley’s proposal, which allows for cardigans as well as jackets, but still requires women’s arms to be concealed.

The move was decried as sexist as the men’s dress code was left unchanged. Men also must adhere to a dress code in the Chambers with male lawmakers required to wear ‘business attire, including coat, tie, dress trousers, and dress shoes or boots.’

Among those critics was state Rep. Pete Merideth (D), who called out his Republican colleagues for hypocrisy over how they handled health and safety guidelines when it came to wearing a mask to help prevent the spread of COVID-19.

‘The caucus that lost their minds over the suggestion that they should wear masks during a pandemic to respect the safety of others is now spending its time focusing on the fine details of what women have to wear (and specifically how many layers must cover their arms) to show respect in this chamber,’ Merideth tweeted.

‘Do you know what it feels like to have a bunch of men in this room looking at your top trying to decide whether it’s appropriate or not?’ state Rep. Ashley Aune (D) said on the state House floor, adding that the update motion was ‘ridiculous.’

Rep. Brenda Shields, a Republican, defended Kelley’s proposal as an effort to clarify the rules that were already in place and suggested adjusting the language to let cardigans count as jackets.

In a Facebook post, Rep. Kelley shared that she has received ‘lots of hateful calls emails, and messages regarding this amendment, which is funny because we already have a dress code all I was doing was fixing the errors and clarifying the rule.’

She added that she brought the amendment to the floor because the House’s chief clerk had ‘requested for many years to get [this] fixed in our rules.’ And she denied wasting anyone’s time, saying her speech had only taken five minutes and blamed Missouri Democrats for prolonging the debate.

‘How is encouraging professionalism wrong?’ Kelley added. ‘If there is ever a time to honor traditions and be professional it is on the House Chamber Floor in the Missouri House of Representatives; I will not apologize for standing up for these things.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s office blasted the National Hockey League for hosting a ‘discriminatory’ job fair that only allows certain groups of people to attend.

The event, titled ‘Pathway to Hockey Summit’ is scheduled for on Feb. 2 during the 2023 All Star Festivities in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, and seeks to help ‘diverse job seekers who are pursuing careers in hockey.’

According to a post by the NHL promoting the event on LinkedIn, the event is only open to certain groups of people.

‘Participants must be 18 years of age or older, based in the U.S., and identify as female, Black, Asian/Pacific Islander, Hispanic/Latino, Indigenous, LGBTQIA+, and/or a person with a disability. Veterans are also welcome and encouraged to attend,’ the event description states. 

In a statement, Bryan Griffin, press secretary for DeSantis, said that the event is discriminatory.

‘Discrimination of any sort is not welcome in the state of Florida, and we do not abide by the woke notion that discrimination should be overlooked if applied in a politically popular manner or against a politically unpopular demographic. We are fighting all discrimination in our schools and our workplaces, and we will fight it in publicly accessible places of meeting or activity,’ Griffin said.

Griffin also said that the NHL should ‘immediately remove and denounce the discriminatory prohibitions it has imposed on attendance to the 2023 ‘Pathway to Hockey’ summit.’

Several hockey teams are sending representatives to the event, including the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning, San Jose Sharks, Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, Anaheim Ducks, Nashville Predators, Seattle Kraken, Washington Capitals, and the Carolina Hurricanes.

‘The day will be filled with guest speakers and panelists, networking opportunities, and more!,’ the post says of the event.

Fox News Digital has reached out to the NHL for comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the sector rotation taking place amid bullish price action in the markets. She also shares areas of strength that are poised to trade higher.

This video was originally broadcast on January 13, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of The MEM Edge air Fridays at 5pm PT on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.