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Las Vegas Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels and quarterback Tom Brady may be planning to reunite. The Raiders are reported to be ‘aggressively pursuing’ Brady, according to CBS Sports’ Jonathan Jones.

Brady and McDaniels have a long history that dates back to New England, where they won six Super Bowls together.

As of right now, both men are on total opposite ends of the spectrum. McDaniels’ Raiders just ended their season after missing the playoffs, while Brady and the Buccaneers are preparing for a Monday night wild-card game against the Dallas Cowboys.

‘The Las Vegas Raiders plan to be very aggressive,’ Jones wrote, ‘in their pursuit of quarterback Tom Brady this offseason, according to multiple sources.’

Follow every game: Latest NFL Scores and Schedules

The Raiders hope to find a trade partner for long-time starting quarterback Derek Carr within the next four weeks, and then they can continue the business of trying to land the 45-year-old legend in the offseason.

The prevailing belief around the league is that Brady will likely continue playing in 2023, and his next stop will be outside of Tampa Bay.

The quarterback position is in flux for the Raiders at the moment. There’s likely no going back to Derek Carr after he was benched and said his goodbyes on social media.

A reunion with Brady may be what McDaniels needs to help get Las Vegas back on track.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY

New York City Mayor Eric Adams headed to El Paso this weekend to visit the U.S.-Mexico border as his city has become overwhelmed with thousands of migrants that have been bused north in recent months, straining public resources to their limits. 

After arriving in El Paso Saturday evening, Mayor Adams called the surge of migrants a ‘national crisis’ that demands a national solution.

Adams said that he and El Paso Mayor Oscar Leeser were ‘on the front lines, and we need federal support.’ 

The visit came after the city submitted an emergency mutual aid request to New York State for help to shelter arriving asylum seekers. 

‘We are now seeing more people arrive than we have ever seen – averaging over 400 people each day this last week, with 835 asylum seekers arriving on one single day alone, the largest single-day arrival we’ve seen to date,’ Adams said in a statement. ‘All this is pushing New York City to the brink.’ 

The city reportedly received more than 3,100 asylum seekers in the past week, with 835 arriving last Thursday alone. 

Since the spring of 2022, Adams noted that the city had taken in around 40,000 asylum seekers, opening 74 emergency shelters and four humanitarian relief centers. 

Mayor Adams told Caribbean Power Jam Radio on Friday he expected the influx of migrants to cost the city as much as $2 billion. 

Adams’ press secretary said Friday the mayor’s trip to El Paso will include ‘multiple stops at and near the U.S. southern border’ as the city ‘continues to face an unprecedented influx’ of asylum-seekers. 

Levy said Adams visited the Office of New Americans-El Pasto County, Texas ‘to learn about what they are hearing from arriving seekers.’ 

‘The reality of the situation is these migrants are being promised things before they cross the border that are just not available,’ Levy said. 

Levy said the mayor arrived in El Paso Saturday night. A post shows Adams and Leeser taking an ‘impromptu visit to an area where asylum seekers have been known to cross the border, as well as an area where many asylum seekers are sleeping.’ 

Levy also shared a video of Mayors Adam and Leeser stopping by El Paso’s Healing Garden and the memorial at Walmart to pay respects to the nearly two dozen migrants murdered in 2019 ‘in a racist, anti-immigrant shooting.’ 

Another video from Levy shows Adams speaking with asylum seekers outside Sacred Heart Church. Levy said the migrants ‘overwhelmingly’ raised their hands to tell the mayor they want to work. 

A few reportedly told The New York Post they wanted the mayor to ‘take me with you’ back to New York when asked what their message to Adams would be. 

The mayor’s visit has drawn comparisons to President Biden’s brief visit to El Paso to see the U.S.-Mexico border. In the span of about four hours, the president walked a stretch of the border and inspected a busy port of entry where border officers demonstrated how they search vehicles for drugs, money, and other contraband. Still, many critics chided the president for not visiting areas most impacted by illegal border crossings. 

Fox News’ Julia Musto contributed to this report.  

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Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., is not ruling out the possibility that national security may have been jeopardized by President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents. 

Schiff appeared on ABC’s ‘This Week’ Sunday, after a third batch of classified documents was found at President Biden’s residence in Wilmington, Delaware. 

ABC’s Jonathan Karl asked Schiff whether it was possible national security had been jeopardized – an assessment Schiff made after the FBI seized classified documents from former President Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in August. 

‘I don’t think we can exclude the possibility without knowing more of the facts,’ Schiff replied. ‘We have asked for an assessment in the intelligence community of the Mar-a-Lago documents. I think we ought to get that same assessment of the documents found in the [Penn Biden Center], as well as the home of President Biden.’ 

White House lawyer Richard Sauber said Saturday that six pages of classified documents were found during a search of Biden’s private library. That announcement came after the discovery of documents found in December in Biden’s garage and in November at his former offices at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, from his time as vice president. 

The apparent mishandling of classified documents and official records from the Obama administration is under investigation by a former U.S. attorney, Robert Hur, who was appointed as a special counsel on Thursday by Attorney General Merrick Garland.

‘I’d like to know what these documents were. I’d like to know what the [special counsel’s] assessment is, whether there was any risk of exposure and what the harm would be and whether any mitigation needs to be done,’ Schiff said. ‘I think that would be appropriate and consistent with what we requested in the case of Mar-a-Lago.’ 

Sauber has previously said that the White House was ‘confident that a thorough review will show that these documents were inadvertently misplaced, and the president and his lawyers acted promptly upon discovery of this mistake.’

Sauber’s statement did not explain why the White House waited two days to provide an updated accounting of the number of classified records. The White House is already facing scrutiny for waiting more than two months to acknowledge the discovery of the initial group of documents at the Biden office.

Schiff said he would ‘reserve judgment’ when asked whether the Biden administration should have revealed the discovery of the documents sooner.

He added: ‘I think it’s important to point out that the Biden approach was very different in the sense that it looks – as far as we can tell – that it was inadvertent that these documents were in these locations.’ 

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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In his remarks celebrating the birthday of the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr., President Biden repeated the questionable claim that he frequented a Black church during the civil rights movement.

Biden gave a speech at King’s historic Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta Sunday on what would have been the slain civil rights icon’s 94th birthday. The president opened his remarks by repeating a claim – connecting himself to the civil rights movement – that has been disputed repeatedly in the past.

‘Let’s lay one thing to rest. I may be a practicing Catholic, but used to go to 7:30 Mass every morning in high school and then in college, before I went to the Black church,’ Biden said. ‘Not a joke. Andy knows this.’

‘Andy, it’s so great to see you, man,’ the president continued, addressing former U.N. Ambassador and former Southern Christian Leadership Conference executive director Andrew Young. ‘You’re one of the greatest we’ve ever had. Andy and I took on apartheid in South Africa and a whole lot else. They didn’t want to see him coming. But we used to – that’s when we would organize to march and to desegregate the city.’

During his 2020 presidential campaign, Biden frequently mentioned how he would help organize anti-segregation protests at Union Baptist Church, a prominent Black church led by the late Rev. Otis Herring in Wilmington, Delaware.

‘When I was a teenager in Delaware, for real, I got involved in the civil rights movement,’ Biden said at the Bethlehem Baptist Church in South Carolina in January 2020. ‘I’d go to 8 o’clock Mass, then I’d go to Rev. Herring’s church where we’d meet in order to organize and figure where we were going to go, whether we were going to desegregate the Rialto movie theater or what we were going to do.’

While Richard ‘Mouse’ Smith, the former president of the Delaware NAACP, defended Biden in a 2019 op-ed, claiming, ‘We know Joe as the ally who was there beside us to protest the Rialto Theater’s discriminatory policy to segregate moviegoers based on race,’ his claim about attending Herring’s church was disputed.

Longtime congregants told the Washington Free Beacon at the time that they didn’t recall Biden attending the church. The revelation came about the same time Biden was forced to admit his repeated claims about being arrested with Young in apartheid-era South Africa were untrue.

‘I was never arrested and I don’t think [Biden] was, either,’ Young said at the time.

‘I guess I wasn’t arrested, I was stopped,’ Biden admitted.

Biden also acknowledged in the 1980s that he was not a civil rights activist and never marched during the movement.

‘During the ’60s, I was, in fact, very concerned about the civil rights movement,’ Biden, who was running for president at the time, said during a speech in 1987. ‘I was not an activist. I worked at an all-Black swimming pool in the east side of Wilmington, Delaware. I was involved in what they were thinking, in what they were feeling.’

‘But I was not out marching, I was not down in Selma,’ he continued. ‘I was not anywhere else.’

Biden’s speech Sunday at Ebenezer comes as he is embroiled in controversy over the alleged mishandling of Obama-era classified documents.

Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday announced the appointment of a special counsel to investigate how the president handled classified documents after leaving the vice presidency in 2017. The White House on Saturday revealed that five additional classified records were found at Biden’s home in Wilmington.

Biden was invited to Ebenezer by Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock, the senior pastor.

The White House did not respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.

Fox News’ Thomas Catenacci and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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Bearish stock traders are suddenly in a tough spot as major technical indicators flash potential buy signals. In addition, liquidity has stabilized, and money flows have suddenly turned positive for stocks. This combination of factors suggests that this rally has the potential to be a game changer. Get the full details below.

The December CPI was good enough to make stocks jump and bond yields fall precipitously, as the new consensus is that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on February 1, and that it may be its last rate hike. We’ll see what happens when the Fed actually makes its next move. 

The U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) broke below the crucial 3.5% support level, temporarily, and the S&P 500 (SPX) and the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) both moved above their respective 200-day moving averages. Get more details on both below.

When taken together, unless there is a meaningful reversal in the not-too-distant future, these indicators are close to flashing an all-out buy signal, which, if it materializes, could mean that this bear market may be over. Of course, that remains to be seen. We’ve been here before twice already in this bear market (the summer rally and the failed Santa Rally), but maybe the third time will be a charm.

Last week, in this space, I noted, “Bond yields are well off of their recent highs. That’s because there is a growing body of private macro data, especially recent PMI and ISM numbers, that suggest that the U.S. economy has been slowing for months and that perhaps that slowing is accelerating.” Specifically, data inside those surveys pointed to a slowing in inflation as well as a slowing in the job market. On the other hand, the December jobs report was not overtly bearish, unless you consider that the ratio of full-time-to-part-time workers continues to suggest that many Americans are either solely working part-time or supplementing their main employment via a second job.

That said, perhaps the silver lining is the slowing in wages, which may be the indicator that gives the Fed wiggle room to slow the pace of its interest rate increases or stop altogether. And that may be good enough for now to push stocks higher.

Bullish Developments: Yes. Total Bullishness: Not Yet.

For the past several months, in my weekly portfolio update to subscribers, I’ve noted that, when the following conditions are met, I would turn bullish. Here they are:

The NYAD needs to move well above its 200-day moving average;There needs to be a rally in XED, which would mean liquidity has improved; VIX must trade near its lows for a long time, which would mean that put buyers have mostly gone away, leaving the market makers no choice but to buy calls and index futures in order to hedge their bets;There must be clear sign from the Fed that the interest rate hike cycle is not just slowing, but coming to an end.  

So here is where we stand at the moment. NYAD and VIX have made positive moves. XED is moving sideways, which is better than falling. And the Fed is hinting that it’s going to slow its rate hikes, but has not signaled the end yet.

Putting it all together, the environment for stocks has improved, but is not totally calling for an all-out bullish stance. What that means is that sticking with what’s working is the way to make money in this market.

Check out what’s working with a Free trial to my service. Click here for more.

Expect Buyer Frenzy as Mortgage Rates Resume Down Trend

It’s time to watch the housing market, including both existing homes and homebuilder data over the next couple of weeks. That’s because a good enough CPI, plus the precipitous drop in bond yields, has reshaped the entire forward-looking interest rate structure.

That means that any potential buyer who has been waiting for a drop in rates might decide that their opportunity has arrived. And if I’m right, the rush to close will be fairly aggressive, as buyers will put plans to work in fear of a rate reversal, which could certainly materialize.

The market is certainly betting on this, as shares of online realtor Redfin (RDFN), whose stock was recently trading under $5 (making it a penny stock), moved decidedly higher on the CPI news. Moreover, bottom fishers had been moving in over the past few weeks, correctly anticipating some type of good news.

On the other hand, the resurgent D.R. Horton (DI), which has been featured in our Rainy Day Portfolio for several months continues its steady climb.  

I own shares in DHI.

The Fed’s Got a Fine Line to Walk

Familiar readers know that I’ve focused on the population shift to the sunbelt over the last year as a dominant macro trend. In fact, this is likely the most important economic issue of the moment. And it’s directly related to both the employment and CPI data in the future.

That’s because, even though the rate of rise in CPI has flattened out, service inflation and shelter costs remain stubbornly high. This is important because there is low housing supply and a potentially tight job market in the sunbelt, which sets up the potential for those two categories of CPI to remain higher than others, which in turn could skew the data in a way that it pushes the Fed to indeed “keep rates higher for longer.”

Now, since the housing sector accounts for some 16% of GDP, as the migration picks up speed — which, based on the suddenly rising numbers of out of state license plates I’m seeing in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW), and hard data, is already well under way — I am expecting a resurgence in the housing market here before too long. And that means a pickup in not just construction jobs, but also in other areas of employment. 

This is due to the fact that more corporations are moving to DFW and other areas of Texas. Apple (AAPL) is expanding its Austin, TX headquarters, while Goldman Sachs (GS) has already quietly moved a large chunk of its operations to Richardson, a suburb of Dallas. Goldman is also planning to move 5000 employees to a new headquarters north of Downtown Dallas, while leasing even more space prior to the construction of its new headquarters. News just broke yesterday that Tesla (TSLA) is expanding its operations in Houston.

If I’m right, based on what I’m seeing at the moment, this activity will work its way beyond just housing data and into GDP. In other words, some areas of the country may face significant economic slowing, but the data may not truly reflect this as the sunbelt’s activity more than makes up for the lack thereof elsewhere.

NYAD Breaks Above 200-Day Moving Average

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) broke above its 50-day moving average on 1/6/23 and followed through, breaking above its 200-day moving average a week later. A sustained move above the 200-day average would be a very bullish development.

Note that all counter trend rallies in this bear market have failed at the 200-day moving average. That means that, if this break above this key line holds, the odds of a new bull market will increase.

For its part, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) recently made new lows. This is also bullish. When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying. 

Liquidity has remained surprisingly stable, despite the Fed’s QT maneuvers, as the Eurodollar Index (XED) has been trending sideways to slightly higher for the past few weeks.

The S&P 500 (SPX) found support at 3800 and is now testing its 20-, 50-, and 200-day moving averages, as well as the 4000 area.  

But here is the great news. Accumulation/Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) have both turned up. That means that there is now net buying in stocks.

The Nasdaq 100 index (NDX) continues to lag SPX badly. It is still possible that it may have made a triple bottom, with the 10,500-10,700 price area bringing in some short-covering. The problem is that the 12,000 area and the 200-day moving average, together, form a sizeable resistance band.

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Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders said the United States would be better off with former President Trump in office instead of President Biden, but failed to give a definitive answer of whether she will support Trump in the 2024 elections. 

‘I love the President, have a great relationship with him. I know our country would be infinitely better off if he was in office right now instead of Joe Biden but right now my focus isn’t 2024,’ Sanders told Fox News Sunday host Shannon Bream.

During her first Sunday show appearance as governor, Sanders told Bream her focus had been on winning the 2022 election and taking office this past week. The governor did not confirm whether she is waiting for additional candidates to join the race for her to announce her presidential endorsement. 

‘I’m not really focused on that at all, but focused on what we can do to impact change and deliver on the promises we made during the campaign season here in Arkansas,’ Sanders said. 

Sanders also stated she is ‘feeling the pressure’ of delivering on her campaign promises as the legislative session takes off. Sanders did say she expects to serve the people of Arkansas for two terms if voted to remain in office by her constituents. 

‘I’m incredibly excited about what I think we have in front of us and that’s the only thing I’m spending my time focused on right now,’ Sanders told Bream, staying away from speculation over whether she could be a potential 2024 vice presidential candidate.

Sanders, who previously served as White House press secretary during the Trump administration, became the first female governor of Arkansas Tuesday after Trump prompted her to run in 2019. Sanders has aligned herself with Trump on a number of issues since leaving the White House, coining herself a ‘trusted confidant of the President.’

Sanders took swift moves in issuing a number of executive orders during her first week in office, including banning critical race theory in schools, ordering a report on cybersecurity in state government, and having agencies drop the term ‘Latinx’ from official government documents.  

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Rep. John Garamendi, D-Calif., on Sunday responded to the discovery of President Biden’s classified documents by saying this was an ’embarrassment.’

The California Democrat appeared on ‘Fox News Sunday,’ where he was asked to weigh in on whether he understands why so many Americans have the perception that the Department of Justice has a two-tier justice system and what he believes the DOJ can do to reassure Americans.

‘Well, doing exactly what they are doing now. We have a special counsel in place. The documents and the whole issue is before the special counsel and the investigations will go forward with regard to these classified documents that were found,’ Garamendi said. ‘I can only – in fact, I don’t need to imagine I know exactly what President Biden said when he was informed that these documents were found in his office in his office in Washington, and that was an ‘Oh,’ followed by a four-letter expletive.’

‘And it’s an embarrassment, no doubt about it.,’ Garamendi added. ‘Is there more to it? I doubt it, but we’ll find out from the special counsel as he goes about his business.’

Garamendi’s comments come one day after a third batch of classified documents from Biden’s tenure as vice president were found at his Wilmington, Delaware residence. 

Special counsel to the president Richard Sauber disclosed in a statement that five additional pages of documents with classified markings were found at Biden’s home Thursday evening, making a total of six classified documents retrieved from there.

Sauber explained that when Biden’s personal attorneys identified one classified document at Biden’s home on Wednesday, they ‘immediately’ stopped searching for additional documents because they lacked the security clearances necessary to view those materials. 

‘Because I have a security clearance, I went to Wilmington Thursday evening to facilitate providing the document the President’s personal counsel found on Wednesday to the Justice Department,’ Sauber said. ‘While I was transferring it to the DOJ officials who accompanied me, five additional pages with classification markings were discovered among the material with it, for a total of six pages. The DOJ officials with me immediately took possession of them.’

The discovery of these five additional classified documents follow reporting on classified documents being found in Biden’s garage and at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, D.C. On Monday, the Biden White House revealed for the first time that on Nov. 2, 2022, the president’s personal lawyers were packing files from his old office at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global engagement, a think tank founded in 2018 by the University of Pennsylvania, when they discovered documents with classified markings in a ‘locked closet’ dated from the time Biden served as vice-president under President Barack Obama. The classified materials were immediately turned over to the National Archives, the White House said. 

Attorney General Merrick Garland announced on Thursday that he was appointing Robert K. Hur, a former U.S. attorney, to serve as special counsel to investigate Biden’s handling of classified materials.

‘I am confident that Mr. Hur will carry out his responsibility in an even-handed and urgent manner and in accordance with the highest traditions of this department,’ Garland stated.

Garamendi is not the only California Democrat to weigh in on the scandal. Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., on Sunday said Attorney General Merrick Garland made the ‘right move’ by appointing a special counsel, saying, ‘The attorney general has to make sure that not only is justice evenly applied, but the appearances of justice are also satisfactory to the public. And here I don’t think he had any choice but to appoint a special counsel.’

Fox News’s Chris Pandolfo and Kelly Laco contributed to this report.

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A George Soros-backed immigration non-profit advocating for open borders and suing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for flying migrants to Martha’s Vineyard has reportedly violated federal disclosure law. 

The Washington Examiner reported that Alianza Americas, which had garnered more than $1.5 million from Soros’ Open Society Foundations, violated IRS law by not producing its 2021 990 Form within 30 days of a written request. The Examiner sent the first written request for Alianza’s tax forms on Nov. 28 and followed up with a second and third request on Dec. 23 and Dec. 27 respectively. 

The publication said it sought the records to verify whether Alianza participated in lobbying in 2021. 

Paul Kamenar, counsel to the National Legal and Policy Center, a conservative watchdog group, told the Examiner that Alianza could be fined up to $10,000 a day and a personal penalty of $1,000. 

The Chicago GOP twice in December visited the address listed on Alianza’s latest public tax forms, but on both instances, neighbors said the organization’s staff no longer visits the office. 

‘I guess it’s not surprising that they operate like a shadow organization, when it would seem that they are repeatedly disregarding the rules, evading investigation, while likely breaching a series of laws designed to maintain the sovereignty of the United States,’ Chicago GOP spokesman Jeff Fielder said. 

Records show Alianza received $8.5 million from the Department of Health and Human Services in 2021, prompting concerns the organization could have illegally used the grant money for lobbying purposes. 

In a lawsuit filed in September, Alianza sued DeSantis and the Florida Department of Transportation Secretary Jared Perdue for sending Venezuelan migrants from the U.S.-Mexico border to the upscale Massachusetts enclave of Martha’s Vineyard. Despite the wealthy community’s pro-sanctuary stance, islanders quickly claimed they did not have the resources to support the influx of migrants, who were transported to a military installation at Cape Cod within a matter of days. 

Fox News Digital reached out to Alianza Americas on Sunday seeking comment on the Examiner’s reporting. 

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Quarterly earnings is a time when management teams announce whether they’ve kept all their promises that were made over the prior 90 days. These quarterly earnings announcements should not be shockers. Wall Street despises big surprises, especially when companies fall short of their consensus estimates. Wall Street firms use future earnings estimates and projected growth rates to help them determine what the inherent values of businesses are. When management teams can’t meet or beat current estimates, how can their future estimates be trusted? And once Wall Street loses trust in management, it’s over. It can take a long, long time to restore that confidence.

I have a “go to” in terms of an earnings indicator and you’ve likely heard me talk about it often. It’s relative strength. Using a school analogy, teachers separate their best students from their worst students using grades. Students that routinely make A’s are considered excellent students, while C students are considered average, and those making F’s are failing, unable to keep up with the better-performing students. The stock market isn’t much different. The big Wall Street firms break down all the companies in a given industry and much of their “grade” for each company is based on expected quarterly earnings and a company’s history of beating estimates. As a trader or investor, we can get clues as to what we might expect from quarterly earnings by how various companies’ stocks trade relate to others within their industry group. In other words, are they the A students or the F students, or somewhere in the middle?

Here are two perfect examples of stocks that just reported this past week, one with excellent relative strength and the other much weaker:

JP Morgan (JPM)

Quarterly revenues: $34.55 billion (actual) vs. $33.95 billion (estimate)Quarterly earnings: $3.57 (actual) vs. $3.11 (estimate)

Simply put, JPM crushed it. And Wall Street was expecting them to crush it. How do I know that? Well, money has been pouring into JPM relative to its banking peers for the past few months. Check this out:

This is absolute textbook TA, in my opinion. JPM was obviously a favorite among the big Wall Street firms, showing tremendous strength, both absolute and relative, from the October low through early December. But note the negative divergence that developed as bullish momentum appeared to be waning. Then, on the first trading day of December, JPM printed a bearish engulfing candle, which is a reversing candlestick. Reversing candlesticks, combined with negative divergences, are signals that I do not ignore. I expect to see PPO centerline “resets” and/or 50-day SMA tests after those bearish technical signals surface. The two pink arrows mark the PPO centerline reset and the 50-day SMA test, ending the 3-week period of profit taking/weakness. Since that time, JPM has resumed its prior uptrend and has a strengthening PPO – very bullish technical behavior. Strengthening PPOs typically result in 20-day EMAs acting as solid support on pullbacks. After JPM’s quarterly results Friday, a “sell on the news” mentality kicked in and banks were very weak Friday morning. JPM fell back initially to test that rising 20-day EMA, then bounced beautifully, closing back at its highest level since February 2022.

Excellent relative strength was the earnings indicator that suggested we’d see solid quarterly earnings and it was wise to listen.

KB Home (KBH)

Quarterly revenues: $1.94 billion (actual) vs. $1.99 billion (estimate)Quarterly earnings: $2.47 (actual) vs. $2.85 (estimate)

Some might say, “how could you see this coming?” Well, one look at relative strength and you’d have to at least consider the possibility that quarterly earnings were not going to be good:

It would be easy to look at the recent price breakout and assume that quarterly earnings would be strong. But I believe KBH is nothing more than a beneficiary of a very strong home construction group ($DJUSHB). Money has rotated strongly into homebuilders and KBH, despite being a relative laggard, has benefited from that inflow. This has been a case of a strong group masking a weak component stock. The relative strength of KBH has been very poor for a long time and this earnings indicator nailed another prediction beautifully as KBH missed on both its revenues and EPS.

I’m hosting a FREE “Q4 Earnings: Sneak Preview” webinar on Monday at 4:30pm ET where I’ll be providing several upcoming earnings predictions based on relative strength. Results from last quarter were fantastic! If you’d like to join me, it only requires a FREE EB Digest newsletter subscription. We’ll be sending out room instructions to all of our EB Digest subscribers on Monday. CLICK HERE to enter your name and email address and join me, if you’re not already an EB Digest subscriber. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

The Justice Department saw the first acquittal of a Jan. 6 rioter on the felony obstruction charge.  

Joshua Black, of Alabama, was shot in the face by a police projectile while breaching the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Court documents show him with blood on the side of his face while in the Senate chamber. Afterward, he also allegedly recorded YouTube videos with blood still on his cheek, recounting what happened. 

‘I had accomplished my goal. I pled the blood of Jesus on the Senate floor. You know, I praised the name of Jesus on the Senate floor,’ Black said in a video, according to an FBI affidavit. ‘That was my goal. I think that was God’s goal.’ 

Following a week-long bench trial, Black was ultimately found not guilty of the charge of obstruction of an official proceeding – a felony that carries a maximum sentence of 20 years, Politico reported.  U.S. District Court Judge Amy Berman Jackson ruled Black had a ‘unique stew in his mind,’ making it difficult to determine whether he knew he was breaking the law. 

The judge said prosecutors failed to prove Black’s intent was to disrupt Congress – or even whether Black was familiar with the congressional proceedings occurring that day to certify Joe Biden’s victory over Donald Trump. Jackson argued that some evidence even suggested Black thought the election certification ended by the time he reached the Capitol. 

Black was convicted of other charges over the Jan. 6 riot, including disorderly conduct in a restricted building while carrying a dangerous weapon. That’s a felony that carries a maximum 10-year sentence. Court documents say Black admitted in a YouTube video to carrying a knife that day. ‘I wasn’t planning on pulling it. I just carry a knife because I do. I work outside, and you need knives, you know. I just, you’re not allowed to carry guns in DC, and I don’t like being defenseless,’ he said. 

Axios reported that Black is the first Jan. 6 defendant who reached the Senate floor to be acquitted of obstruction of justice. His sentencing on the other charges is set for May 5. 

As of Jan. 3, 2023, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland said more than 950 defendants have been arrested in nearly all 50 states and the District of Columbia in connection to the Jan. 6. riot at the U.S. Capitol. That includes more than 284 defendants who have been charged with assaulting, resisting, or impeding officers or employees. 

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