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In this episode of StockCharts TV’s Sector Spotlight, I look at the current state of sector rotation, then walk through all 11 sector charts to make an assessment on their individual (relative) trends and their near-term support and resistance levels. Next, I use all this information to “reverse engineer” support and resistance levels and a price target for SPY.

This video was originally broadcast on January 10, 2023. Click anywhere on the Sector Spotlight logo above to view on our dedicated Sector Spotlight page, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also check out the video on the StockCharts TV on-demand website StockChartsTV.com, or on the associated app on mobile platforms like iOS and Android, or TV platforms like Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV and Chromecast.

Sector Spotlight airs weekly on Tuesdays at 10:30-11:00am ET. Past episodes can be found here.

#StaySafe, -Julius

Southwest Airlines is looking at all options to ensure the operational meltdown it suffered last month is not repeated, Chief Executive Bob Jordan said on Thursday.

The Dallas-based carrier has been dealing with customer outrage and regulatory scrutiny after a systems meltdown last month left thousands of passengers stranded.

Southwest has hired consultancy Oliver Wyman to investigate the disruption, Jordan told Reuters in an interview.

“I have put everything on the table here because it just can’t happen again,” he said.

A severe winter storm right before Christmas, coupled with Southwest’s dated technology, led to the cancellation of more than 16,000 flights. The airline had long cultivated a reputation for reliable customer service, humorous flight crews and low-cost flights.

Southwest’s board has set up a new Operations Review Committee to oversee management following last month’s systems collapse, Jordan said.

Asked about his job security, he said: “I’m not focused on that one bit, and at the end of the day, that’s not up to me in any case.”

“There are a lot of reasons that this happened, but it’s on me at the end of the day,” Jordan said. “It’s on me to not let this happen again and to rebuild trust with our employees and rebuild trust with our customers, and we will do exactly that.”

Jordan, who took the airline’s helm last February, is under pressure from investors to win over customers. To mollify them, the carrier has awarded customers affected by the meltdown 25,000 Rapid Rewards points, equivalent to more than $300, as a goodwill gesture, and has also launched a fare sale.

Jordan said New York-based Oliver Wyman is interviewing company staff and union members to reconstruct the recent debacle in order to identify gaps in the carrier’s operations.

Meanwhile, the company has put in interim measures to avoid a repeat, he said. General Electric Co (GE.N) is updating the company’s software, which will automate its crew scheduling systems, he said.

GE said the current software Southwest uses “performed as designed” during the problems last month. “We are working with them to define new functionality as they improve their crew rescheduling capability,” it said in a statement.

Southwest has also put together a new team of trained employees who can be cross-utilized to manage rescheduling crew during a disruption that requires significant schedule changes. Jordan said the company activated this group during the Federal Aviation Administration nationwide ground stop on Wednesday.

The airline is processing tens of thousands of customer reimbursements a day, he added. With the exception of 1% of bags, the airline has delivered to customer all the luggage that went missing.

Jordan defended the airline’s point-to-point business model, which allows customers to fly directly from smaller cities without having to stop and change planes at major hubs like Chicago and New York. He said last month’s disruption was not due to the structure, but said the airline could set up more crew bases if Oliver Wyman recommends that.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said Friday that the bank is preparing for a potential recession in 2023, including a scenario where unemployment rises rapidly.

“Our baseline scenario contemplates a mild recession. … But we also add to that a downside scenario, and what this results in is 95% of our reserve methodology is weighted toward a recessionary environment in 2023,” Moynihan said on a call with investors.

That pessimistic case, which is more negative than it was last quarter, calls for unemployment to rise to 5.5% early this year and remain at 5% or above through the end of 2024, Moynihan said.

The CEO’s statement mirrors the earnings report for JPMorgan Chase, whose economic outlook calls for “a mild recession in the central case.”

Bank of America beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its fourth quarter, but its $1.1 billion provision for credit losses was a sharp reversal from a negative number in that metric a year ago.

While the bank said net credit charge offs are still below pre-pandemic levels, outstanding balances on credit cards are up 14% year over year, and Moynihan said delinquencies are rising from their unusually low pandemic levels.

Shares of Bank of America were up less than 1% on Friday.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Price growth in the United States cooled in December as the economy continued to show signs of weakening. Inflation landed at 6.5% compared to the 12 months prior.

That figure was in line with analysts’ expectations, and a decrease from the 7.1% seen in November. On a month-to-month basis, inflation fell by 0.1% in December, in line with expectations.

The slowing rate of inflation is likely to signal to the Federal Reserve that its interest-rate hikes are working but, so far, Chair Jerome Powell has not indicated any near-term plan to significantly pull back from those increases until inflation gets closer to 2%.

The economy continues to be buoyed by a strong labor market. Last week, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the unemployment rate had hit a 53-year low, falling to 3.5%, but the difficulty that companies are experiencing when it comes to finding workers can still be seen in the 10.5 million job openings it reported.

While that number has fallen from its post-pandemic highs, it’s causing many employers to increase wages. That’s good news for workers, but some Federal Reserve officials say they believe those pay increases are most likely translating into higher prices for customers.

“To be clear, strong wage growth is a good thing,” Powell said at a conference in November. “But for wage growth to be sustainable, it needs to be consistent with 2% inflation,” he added.

A shopper waits to check out in a grocery store in San Francisco last May.David Paul Morris / Bloomberg via Getty Images file

Where in the U.S. economy have prices fallen?

In December, the cost of gasoline fell to levels last seen before the war in Ukraine began, to roughly $3.10 per gallon.

BLS data Thursday showed a 9.4% monthly drop for gasoline prices in December.

An index that tracks prices among small businesses has also stopped its breakneck pace of growth, though it remains well above pre-pandemic levels.

Prices for goods and services bought online in December were 1.6% lower than they were a year earlier — the fourth-consecutive month of annual price declines, according to data from Adobe Analytics. It said holiday discounts drove down prices of appliances, electronics, toys, computers and sporting goods, while price increases cooled off in categories like personal care.

The cost of food has proven to be more stubborn, thanks in part to extreme weather events, bird flu and labor shortages that have affected the cost of growing crops and delivering groceries.

Thursday’s BLS data showed food prices advanced 0.3% on a monthly basis in December.

But Wednesday, the food giant Conagra, which produces the Healthy Choice, Birds Eye and Chef Boyardee brands, told Reuters it plans to pause price hikes on snacks and frozen foods after the current quarter.

Economists at Bank of America say Thursday’s inflation report is unlikely to cause Fed officials to abandon their plan to aggressively slow the economy through interest rate hikes.

‘While there are growing signs that inflation has peaked, the Fed is worried about the overheating labor market,’ they said in a report this week. ‘Our outlook for the December [inflation] report is unlikely to quell those concerns.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A former CVS Health nurse practitioner is suing the pharmacy chain for firing her after she refused to prescribe birth control, citing her religious beliefs.

Texas resident J. Robyn Strader said in the suit that her Baptist Christian faith prevents her from prescribing contraceptive and abortion-inducing drugs. She said that for six and a half years, CVS granted her a religious accommodation to forego having to prescribe the drugs at the CVS MinuteClinic where she worked. When a customer needed the prescription, she would refer them to a colleague or another CVS MinuteClinic.

But in August 2021, CVS said it was revoking all religious accommodations. That’s illegal, Strader and her attorneys argue, citing Title VII of the Civil Rights Act, which states employers cannot “avoid accommodating a religious practice that it could accommodate without undue hardship,’ and another court decision that states religious accommodation requests must be considered on an individual-employee basis.

CVS spokesperson Mike DeAngeles said in an email that “educating and treating patients regarding sexual health matters — including pregnancy prevention” had become “essential” as the company had expanded its clinic services, and that it could not grant a religious accommodation excusing employees from them.

CVS is facing at least two other lawsuits in federal court brought by former nurse practitioners in Kansas and Virginia who say they were fired over the policy.

CVS’ biggest competitor, Walgreens, has previously come under scrutiny for its policy allowing employees to refuse to carry out some transactions, including dispensing contraceptives, that go against their religious beliefs. The company has said in such instances, the employee can refer the customer to another colleague.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Chickens may not be able to fly very far, but the price of eggs is soaring.

A lingering bird flu outbreak, combined with soaring feed, fuel and labor costs, has led to U.S. egg prices more than doubling over the past year, and hatched a lot of sticker shock on grocery aisles.

The national average price for a dozen eggs hit $3.59 in November, up from $1.72 a year earlier, according to the latest government data. That’s putting stress on consumer budgets and the bottom lines of restaurants, bakeries and other food producers that rely heavily on eggs.

Grocery prices that were up 12% in November are driving inflation higher, even though the overall pace of price increases slowed a bit through the fall as gas prices eased.

But egg prices are up significantly more than other foods — even more than chicken or turkey — because egg farmers were hit harder by the bird flu. More than 43 million of the 58 million birds slaughtered over the past year to control the virus have been egg-laying chickens, including some farms with more than a million birds apiece in major egg-producing states like Iowa.

Everyone who approaches the egg case a Hy-Vee grocery store in Omaha, “has a sour face,” said shopper Nancy Stom.

But even with the cost increases, eggs remain relatively cheap compared to the price of other proteins like chicken or beef, with a pound of chicken breasts going for $4.42 on average in November and a pound of ground beef selling for $4.85, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“It’s still an inexpensive meal,” Stom said. But the 70-year-old said that at these prices, she’ll watch her eggs more closely in the fridge and try not to let them go bad before they get used.

If prices remain this high, Kelly Fischer said she will start thinking more seriously about building a backyard chicken coop in Chicago because everyone in her family eats eggs.

“We (with neighbors) are contemplating building a chicken coop behind our houses, so eventually I hope not to buy them and have my own eggs and I think the cost comes into that somewhat,” the 46-year-old public school teacher said while shopping at HarvesTime Foods on the city’s North Side. “For me, it’s more of the environmental impact and trying to purchase locally.”

In some places, it can even be hard to find eggs on the shelves. But egg supplies overall are holding up because the total flock is only down about 5% from from its normal size of around 320 million hens. Farmers have been working to replace their flocks as soon as they can after an outbreak.

Jakob Werner, 18, said he tries to find the cheapest eggs he can because he eats five or six of them a day while he’s trying to gain weight and build muscle.

“For a while, I just stopped eating eggs as they got more expensive. But since they’re my favorite food, I came back to them in the end,” said Werner, who lives in Chicago. “So I think for like a few months I just stopped eating eggs, waited for the price to come down. It never did. So now I’m buying again.”

A customer checks for broken eggs before purchasing at a supermarket in Los Angeles on Jan. 8, 2023.I RYU / VCG via Getty VCG via Getty Images

Purdue University agricultural economist Jayson Lusk said he believes the bird flu outbreak is the biggest driver in the price increases. Unlike past years, the virus lingered throughout the summer and made a resurgence last fall infecting egg and poultry farms.

But she said bird flu remains a wildcard that could still drive prices higher if there are more sizeable outbreaks at egg farms.

Farmers are doing all they can to limit the spread, but the disease is easily spread by migrating wild birds and the virus can be picked up on clothing or vehicles.

“But there are some things that are just outside of our control,” Thompson said. “You can’t control nature sometimes.”

Food producers and restaurants are hurting because it’s hard to find a good substitute for eggs in their recipes.

Any decrease in egg prices would be welcome at Patti Stobaugh’s two restaurants and two bakeries in Conway and Russelville, Arkansas, because all of her ingredients and supplies are more expensive these days. For some of her baked goods, Stobaugh has switched to a frozen egg product that’s not quite as pricey, but she’s still buying eggs for all the breakfasts she serves.

A case of 15 dozen eggs has gone from $36 to $86 over the last year, but flour, butter, chicken and everything else she buys is also more expensive. Stobaugh said that has her “hyper vigilant about every little item.”

She’s already increased her prices 8% in the past year, and she may have to soon increase them again. It’s a delicate balance of trying not to make it too expensive for people to eat out and hurting sales, but she doesn’t have much choice while trying to provide for her 175 employees.

“We have a lot of employees that work for us and we’re responsible for making payroll every week and supporting their families. We take that very seriously. But it certainly has been tough,” Stobaugh said.

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Fresh off telling investors last week that it may consider a bankruptcy filing, Bed Bath & Beyond has kicked off a fresh round of layoffs.

The company said in a statement Tuesday that it would be “necessary to right-size” the company as it seeks to turn its business around.

“Unfortunately, this has necessitated making the difficult decision to say goodbye to some of our colleagues,” it said.  

CNBC was first to report the layoffs after it obtained a company memo that told employees that the cuts would be “across our corporate, supply chain and store portfolio.” It did not give an exact number of layoffs.

Bed Bath & Beyond is also eliminating the role of chief transformation officer, CNBC reported.

Last Thursday, Bed Bath & Beyond issued a “going concern” warning as it faced the prospect of a critical cash shortfall. It said it would seek to address the crunch it by exploring options, including a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

Doing so would bookend a tumultuous post-pandemic period for the company that got it get caught up in the meme-stock frenzy, in which day traders and other amateur investors speculated on ostensibly troubled companies’ turning around. In the case of Bed Bath & Beyond, after they hit a pandemic low of about $4 in April 2020, company shares spiraled upward to as much as $35 in summer 2021.

Today, the company’s shares are worth about $2.

Bed Bath & Beyond has also faced tragedy in the death of its chief financial officer, Gustavo Arnal, in September, which was ruled a suicide.

On Tuesday, the company reported quarterly results that showed same-store sales had fallen by 32%.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

A technology issue at the Federal Aviation Administration temporarily grounded flights nationwide Wednesday.

It is territory infrequently traveled when it comes to the massive and complex U.S. flight system. Not since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, have all domestic flights been unable to take off.

So what should travelers do if their scheduled travel has been affected?

According to the U.S. Department of Transportation, ‘there are no federal laws requiring airlines to provide passengers with money or other compensation when their flights are delayed.’

Instead, each airline has its own policies about what it will do for delayed passengers. The DOT advises that, if a flight is significantly delayed, customers should ask airline staff if the carrier will pay for meals or a hotel room — but neither of these are guaranteed.

If a flight has been delayed for more than two hours, or canceled, many airlines have policies that will kick in that allow passengers to get a full refund for the unused portion of their ticket. Other airlines will offer vouchers for future flights.

But because the ground stop Wednesday could be classified as a force majeure event, also known as an act of God outside the airline’s control, each airline will ultimately decide what its passengers may be entitled to. The DOT’s new passenger rights dashboard only applies to events that were within an airline’s control.

United Airlines has activated a travel waiver for any customers who need to change their plans, including offering refunds for customers who no longer want to travel.

Southwest Airlines is rebooking customers on the next available Southwest flight with seats available to the customer’s ticketed destination at no additional cost. The airline said customers who choose not to travel due to a cancellation or significant delay can receive a refund of the unused portion of the Southwest ticket upon request.

From a practical standpoint in this scenario, there is not much that passengers can do, short of hitting the road in a vehicle or jumping on a bus to their next destination. If they do so, it is not guaranteed that an airline will reimburse them for that expense.

Scott Mayerowitz, the executive editor of The Points Guy travel website, said that at this point, all anyone who expects to fly Wednesday can do is have patience.

‘If the FAA can restart its system quickly, those passengers who are already at airports whose planes were waiting at gates and who have pilots and flight attendants should be on their way pretty quickly once the ground stop is lifted,’ he said.

‘For everybody else, unfortunately, it’s going to be a horrible day to fly.’

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Family grocery bills are on the rise with higher prices for most items, accentuated by significant increases in the cost of eggs. But unless shoppers are taking notes, it can be hard to really see which items are seeing the biggest spikes.

NBC News is monitoring the average point-of-sale prices and how much those prices have changed since January 2022 for six popular supermarket items: orange juice, eggs, chicken breasts, fresh ground beef, bacon and bread.

Readers can use this interactive chart to see how the price they have paid for groceries differs from the national average or from the prices shoppers paid in other major metro areas.

The goal is to track the impact of inflation on consumers’ wallets during the pandemic and as the economy reopens. The White House has said inflation is on the rise and here to stay.

The NBC News grocery price tracker is one measure of the outcomes of President Joe Biden’s economic policies for everyday people.

The Federal Reserve has said that prices have accelerated and that they are expected to keep rising. Input costs are up, especially for food and fuel, which pressures grocery prices. Supply chain disruptions and weather also play roles.

The data in the NBC News tracker, provided by NielsenIQ, is collected from real checkout prices paid nationwide at grocery stores, drugstores, mass merchandisers, selected dollar stores, selected warehouse clubs and military commissaries.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly consumer price index, which uses human data collectors and includes other food product categories, is another resource for average price data.

This story will be updated monthly.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Wednesday was another day to forget for U.S. airline passengers, as a technology issue at the Federal Aviation Administration grounded flights nationwide.

While all airlines were affected, one stood out as the grounding of domestic flights had a cascading effect on air travel: Southwest Airlines. According to the flight tracking company Flight Aware, Southwest had as many as 49% of its flights delayed as of noon Wednesday.

That compares with 48% for American Airlines, 40% for United, 38% for Delta, and 33% for JetBlue.

Anuvu, another site that tracks flights, showed just 7% of Southwest flights were departing on time, compared with 15% for American Airlines, 21% for United Airlines, and 33% for Delta Airlines.

Southwest is still reeling from the huge disruption it experienced over the Christmas holiday that saw an estimated 11,000 of its flights canceled. This week, it pinned the cost of the fiasco at upward of $800 million.

In a statement, Southwest said that while it was fully staffed and operating as many flights as possible on Wednesday, ‘we expect delays across our system on this day shortened by the FAA ground stop that pushed the departure of our first flights on the East Coast by two to three hours.’

The airline acknowledged it had also proactively canceled flights early before the ground stop was lifted.

‘There is no concern higher than safety and accurate, timely information from the FAA,’ it said.

The scale of transformation that Southwest must undergo to correct the issues that led to the holiday meltdown will require much more than a week to undertake, said Henry Harteveldt, president and travel industry analyst at the Atmosphere Research Group.

Still, he called the airline’s outsize delays Wednesday ‘troubling.’ He said Southwest’s ‘point-to-point’ flight routing process, which allows the airline to fly a greater volume of passengers but which can create a cascade of delays, could be to blame.

Southwest also operates a crew scheduling system that was not designed to handle its current daily volume of flights, said Michael Boyd, president of the Boyd Group International aviation consultancy.

‘When they were a simpler airline, you could make a phone call,’ Boyd said. ‘You can’t do that with 700 airplanes going across all of North America. … They’ve invested in a new customer reservation system, but [crew scheduling] is one area they haven’t gotten to.’

Southwest said Wednesday it would rebook customers on the next available Southwest flight with seats available to the customer’s ticketed destination, at no additional cost.

For customers who choose not to travel after a cancellation or significant delay, Southwest said it would issue a refund of the unused portion of the ticket upon request in accordance with its contract of carriage.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS