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After Memphis police released video showing Tyre Nichols’ bloody encounter with five officers, some Democrats called the deadly incident an example of racism, despite all involved parties being of the same race.

Memphis officials released the bodycam video as well as nearby surveillance video on Friday night, showing several police officers beating Nichols multiple times.

Officials said that officers stopped Nichols on Jan. 7 for ‘reckless driving,’ adding that a ‘confrontation occurred during the stop,’ which then led to Nichols attempting to run away from the officers.

Five Memphis police officers, all Black, now face murder charges after the death of Tyre Nichols.

Van Jones, a CNN commentator, wrote in an op-ed that Nichols’ death may have been caused by Black police officers, but may have ‘still have been driven by racism.’

‘Black cops are often socialized in police departments that view certain neighborhoods as war zones. In those departments, few officers get disciplined for dishing out ‘street justice’ in certain precincts — often populated by Black, brown or low-income people — where there is a tacit understanding that the ‘rulebook’ simply doesn’t apply,’ Van Jones said. ‘Cops of all colors, including Black police officers, internalize those messages — and sometimes act on them.’

Jemele Hill, a writer for The Atlantic, tweeted that the ‘entire system’ of policing is based on White supremacy.

‘I need so many people to understand this regarding Tyre Nichols. Several of the police officers who murdered Freddie Gray were Black. The entire system of policing is based on white supremacist violence. We see people under the boot of oppression carry its water all the time,’ Hill wrote.

Rep. Maxwell Frost, D-Fla., said in a now-deleted tweet that Nichols’ death is a ‘result of white supremacy.’

‘Doesn’t matter what color those police officers are,’ Frost said. ‘The murder of Tyre Nichols is anti-Black and the result of white supremacy.’

Former Rep. Mondaire Jones, D-N.Y., also appeared to state that racism had a factor in Nichols’ death.

‘If you think the Memphis police officers had to be white in order to exhibit anti-Blackness, you need to take that AP African American Studies course Ron DeSantis just banned,’ Jones tweeted.

Filmmaker Bree Newsome said on Twitter that racism is embedded in policing.

‘Diversifying the police force doesn’t end racism because racism is inherent to the organization of the institution & its daily operation. Racism is what policing is,’ she said.

When officers caught up with Nichols, another confrontation occurred, according to officials, which left Nichols complaining about a shortness of breath.

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‘While attempting to take the suspect into custody, another confrontation occurred; however, the suspect was ultimately apprehended,’ MPD said. ‘Afterward the suspect complained of having shortness of breath, at which point an ambulance was called to the scene.’ 

Nichols was transported to St. Francis Hospital in critical condition, but died on Jan. 10, according to the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation.

‘I didn’t do anything,’ Nichols can be heard saying over the body camera video while officers yanked him out of the car during the traffic stop.

One body camera video released by police shows officers using pepper spray and another using a baton.

‘Watch out, I’ma baton the f— out you,’ one officer says.

Officers can be seen punching, kicking, and striking Nichols with the baton several times.

Fox News’ Michael Ruiz and Adam Shaw contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Members of Congress are guaranteed very little when voters send them to Washington.

Lawmakers score an office on Capitol Hill. A budget to run their office and pay staff. They are assured the right to vote. Voting is the most seminal responsibility for a Member of Congress. 

Other than that, there are few assurances on Capitol Hill. And that includes committee assignments.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., are now doling out committee assignments to their respective members.

This is especially important to freshmen.

It’s not a big news story that Rep. Jill Tokuda, D-Hawaii., scored a seat on the Armed Services Committee. Or that Rep. Glenn Ivey, D-Md., will sit on the Judiciary Committee.

Important to them, of course. And their constituents. But not terribly newsworthy.

However, committee assignments dictate much of the legislative traffic for lawmakers. It also consumes their time when there are major hearings and markup sessions to write legislation.

Committee assignments are kind of like fraternity and sorority rush on campus. Lawmakers want to make sure they get a ‘bid’ from the committee equivalents of Beta Theta Pi or Chi Omega during rush. Much like college students, lawmakers are despondent if they don’t make the cut.

SCHIFF, SWALWELL, OMAR RESPOND AFTER SPEAKER MCCARTHY KEEPS THEM OFF COMMITTEES: ‘POLITICAL VENGEANCE

Two Republican lawmakers are ecstatic that McCarthy reinstated them to their committees. And three Democrats may feel like they got turned down for rush.

McCarthy assigned Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., to the Homeland Security and Oversight Committees. Rep. Paul Gosar, R-Ariz., won spots on the Natural Resources and Oversight panels.

The Democratically-controlled House voted to strip Greene and Gosar of their committee assignments in 2021.

A bipartisan coalition of lawmakers bounced Greene from her committee assignments just one month into her first term. The House sanctioned Greene for promoting conspiracy theories and threatening violence. Greene told the House that she regretted her embrace of conspiracies in the past.

The House voted to axe Gosar from his committee assignments after he tweeted an anime video which appeared to suggest violence toward Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y. Gosar later removed the video and said he doesn’t back violence ‘towards anyone.’ 

McCarthy is now returning the favor.

The Speaker formally blocked the plan by Democrats to re-assign Reps. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Eric Swalwell, D-Calif., to the House Intelligence Committee.

McCarthy is empowered to intervene with the Intelligence panel because it’s a ‘select’ committee. Not a garden variety committee. Thus, the Speaker has a say over the appointment of members.

This is what happened in 2021 when former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi D-Calif., nixed two of McCarthy’s picks from serving on the panel investigating the Capitol riot. That panel was also a ‘select’ committee. Thus, Pelosi could dictate who was on or off that panel. McCarthy then withdrew all of his appointees to that committee. Pelosi filled the GOP slots with former Reps. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., and Liz Cheney, R-Wyo.

However, here’s the rub: Swalwell would have needed what’s called a ‘waiver’ to continue to serve on the Intelligence Committee in the 118th Congress.

Here’s why:

House Rule X, Clause 11 restricts members from specifically serving on the Intelligence panel for more than four Congresses within a window of six consecutive two-year Congresses.

Swalwell was out of time on the Intelligence Committee unless he was granted a waiver.

However, that provision would not apply to Schiff – if he were to be the ranking Democrat on the committee.

Schiff has either chaired or been the ranking Democrat on the Intelligence panel since 2015.

Schiff has now decided to run for the Senate in 2024. Sen Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., hasn’t said if she will seek re-election. However, she’s now 89.

‘If they want to run, run,’ said Feinstein. ‘For me, I just need a little bit more time.’

However, the committee assignment question is different if Republicans attempt to impede Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., from serving on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.

McCarthy promised to remove Omar from that panel because of controversial statements the Minnesota Democrat made about 9/11 and anti-Semitic remarks. But the Foreign Affairs panel is a ‘regular’ committee. McCarthy doesn’t control the membership there.

Democrats intend to place Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee. But it would take a full vote by the House to either block Omar or remove her.

Jeffries will likely send his slate of Foreign Affairs Committee members to the full House for approval. This is usually done via unanimous consent. If no one objects, the members are on the committee. But an objection would torpedo the entire slate of committee candidates for Foreign Affairs along with members for other panels.

So, unless someone objects, the House initially places Omar on the Foreign Affairs Committee.

It then takes a full vote by the House to remove Omar.

This is similar to what happened when the House stripped Greene and Gosar of their committee posts in 2021.

It would take a simple majority of the House to banish Omar from Foreign Affairs.

It comes down to the math.

McCarthy can only lose five members on his side and approve measures without Democratic support.

It’s far from clear if all Republicans would vote to remove Omar from Foreign Affairs. Reps. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., and Ken Buck, R-CO have all said they’re against ousting Omar. Democrats are trying to get Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Penn., and Chris Smith, R-N.J., to oppose Omar’s removal as well.

But Omar made some enemies on the Democratic side of the aisle for her comments. So, it’s unclear if Democrats would stick together and pluck off a few Republicans to keep Omar on Foreign Affairs. 

‘We haven’t had an internal conversation about it,’ said Jeffries. ‘We should be able to put forward a slate of committee assignments which includes Rep. Ilhan Omar on Foreign Affairs.’

Jeffries added that House Republicans should accept the Democratic picks ‘as opposed to a revenge tour as part of some deal that apparently was cut with the extreme MAGA, Republican wing, including the Congresswoman from Georgia.’

For her part, Greene said ‘there’s a big difference’ between Democrats stripping her of committee assignments in 2021 and the goal of Republicans now. Greene said Democrats bumped her from committees ‘for things that I had said or social media posts before I ever ran for Congress.’

Greene said ‘it’s the wrong stance for any Member of Congress having that type of attitude and statements towards our great ally Israel.’

McCarthy moved against Schiff and Swalwell and their committee assignments because he could. However, Omar’s fate isn’t as clear.

And Republicans will soon face a challenge on making good one of their pledges were they to secure the House majority.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Apprehensions of illegal immigrants crossing into Vermont along its border with Canada have more than doubled in a little more than three months compared to the last two years, a Customs and Border Protection official said. 

‘In less than four months, Swanton Sector’s apprehensions have surpassed the COMBINED two prior years (FY2021-2022),’ Robert Garcia, chief patrol agent for the Border Patrol’s Swanton Sector, tweeted last week. 

He continued, ‘In the face of this adversity, our #BorderPatrol Agents remain steadfast in their portrayal of our ideals: Vigilance, Integrity, & Service to Country. #HonorFirst.’

He added that the sector had a nearly 743% increase over the same prior-year period. 

In December, the Swanson Sector, which encompasses all of Vermont, captured a record 441 people crossing illegally from Canada, according to the Center Square. 

BIDEN ADMIN’S BORDER POLICIES NOW FACING BACKLASH FROM DEMOCRATS AS WELL AS REPUBLICANS 

Garcia said that illegal crossings into the state is more dangerous in the cold winter months. 

‘In freezing temperatures over uncertain terrain, families with children, from just a few months old, continue to illegally cross from Canada into the U.S,’ he tweeted. ‘The risk to human lives—including #BorderPatrol Agents—is increasing. Illegal & irresponsible.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A bill introduced in the North Carolina legislature would require sheriffs to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement as part of a move across the country by Republicans who want authorities at the state and local level to do more to arrest and deport illegal immigrants.

The bill would require sheriffs, when admitting any prisoner into their jails, to determine whether the prisoner is a legal resident of the U.S., and, if not, make contact with ICE. 

Additionally, if ICE has issued a detainer, a notification to request that a prisoner be transferred into ICE custody upon release from jail, the sheriffs must honor the request under the proposed law.

The Carolina Journal reported that the bill was introduced to counter a number of sheriffs who have refused to cooperate with immigration enforcement.

‘It’s sad that this small number of woke sheriffs are actively choosing to place politics above public safety,’ state Rep. Destin Hall told the outlet. ‘Cooperating with ICE about illegal aliens charged with serious crimes in our state should be common sense. Their decision to cut off communication with immigration officials only puts more innocent people and officers in harm’s way.’

Honoring detainers has become a major immigration issue amid the rise of ‘sanctuary’ jurisdictions, which refuse to cooperate with ICE and specifically refuse to honor detainers. 

ICE says it places detainers on those who have been arrested on criminal charges and who ICE has probable cause to believe are deportable under the Immigration and Nationality Act, and it does so to take custody of the immigrant in a safe setting.

But proponents of ‘sanctuary’ jurisdictions say such laws allow illegal immigrants to get the services they need without fear and encourage them to cooperate with law enforcement on other matters without fearing deportation. Opponents say it allows for the release of criminals to the streets who would otherwise be removed from the country and also acts as a magnet for more illegal migration.

Sanctuary cities were the source of a divisive political debate in 2022, when Texas and Arizona began bussing migrants entering the country at the southern border into sanctuary cities like New York City; Washington, D.C.; and Chicago.

ICE has been the subject of a legal battle over the Biden administration’s narrowed enforcement priorities, which limit the agency to focusing on recent border, crosser, ‘aggravated felon’ and national security threats.

The Biden administration has said the rules allow ICE to focus on more pressing threats to the American public given its limited resources. But Republicans pointed to a sharp drop in interior arrests and deportations, and states have sued over the priorities. A case is now being considered by the Supreme Court.

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Separately, Republican senators have written to the Department of Homeland Security about the destinations cited by illegal immigrants who are being processed and released into the U.S. amid concerns that those sanctuary cities are driving the ongoing migrant crisis.

‘We are deeply concerned that sanctuary jurisdictions are serving as a pull factor for illegal immigrants and for criminal aliens. This failure to comply with federal law creates an incentive for illegal immigrants to travel to the United States and avoid accountability by moving to sanctuary jurisdictions,’ they said.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Former President Donald Trump took aim at his potential rivals for the Republican presidential nomination as he kicked off a new phase of this 2024 White House campaign with a stop in the state that first launched him towards the presidency.

Pointing to his 2020 renomination as the sitting president, Trump on Saturday recollected during a speech in the first-in-the-nation presidential primary state of New Hampshire that he didn’t have much competition. 

Then, as he looked to a potential 2024 GOP primary field that might eventually include rivals such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, and other well known Republicans, Trump asserted that ‘I don’t think we have competition this time either to be honest.’

The former president also pushed back against recent criticism from political pundits that the first months of his third White House campaign have been anything but impressive.

‘They said he’s not campaigning… maybe he lost his step,’ Trump said as he imitated his critics. 

The former president then stressed that ‘I’m more committed now than I ever was.’

Trump made his comments as he gave the headline address to hundreds of party leaders, elected officials and activists attending the New Hampshire GOP’s annual meeting. 

New Hampshire, which for a century has held the first primary in the race for the White House, was the scene of Trump’s first election victory in 2016, igniting him towards the GOP presidential nomination and eventually the White House. 

Trump’s visit to New Hampshire — first reported by Fox News earlier this week — was his first stop of the day. He later headed for South Carolina, another crucial early voting state that holds the third contest in the GOP’s presidential nominating calendar, directly after New Hampshire.

The Saturday afternoon gathering South Carolina’s state capitol building — where he is expected to announce his leadership team in the Palmetto State with Sen. Lindsey Graham and Gov. Henry McMaster on hand — will be Trump’s first 2024 campaign event since announcing his candidacy in mid-November at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach, Florida.

As he builds his leadership teams in the early voting states, the former president announced that Steve Stepanek is ‘coming on board as the senior adviser for my New Hampshire campaign’  

Stepanek, a former state lawmaker and businessman who co-chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in the Granite State, on Saturday finished up four years steering the state party committee.

The former president received a very warm welcome from the crowd in New Hampshire, as Trump supporters and allies have expanded their grip over the state party in recent years.

‘We’re starting right here as a candidate for president…. This is just the beginning of our agenda. I look forward to returning many times,’ Trump touted.

And he predicted that ‘one year from now we will win the New Hampshire primary and the with the help of the good people of this state… we’ll take back the White House.’ 

While Trump’s the only major Republican to date to launch a 2024 presidential campaign, and while he remains the most popular and influential politician in the GOP and the party’s most ferocious fundraiser when it comes to energizing the grassroots.

But political pundits from both the left and the right torched his campaign launch, and he’s been criticized by Democrats and some Republicans for controversial actions and comments he’s made during the past two months. Plus, in the wake of a lackluster performance by the GOP in the midterm elections — when the party underperformed in what may expected to be a red wave election — Trump has also been blamed for elevating polarizing Republican nominees who ended up losing in November. 

While he didn’t take sides in New Hampshire’s combustible GOP primaries in September, the MAGA-style candidates who won the U.S. Senate and both congressional nominations went down in flames in November’s general election.

Two days before the former president’s arrival in the Granite State, a new public opinion poll by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center suggested that Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida held a double-digit lead over Trump in a hypothetical 2024 GOP presidential nomination matchup in the first primary state.

DeSantis, whom pundits expect will declare his candidacy for president later this year but who has yet to say if he’ll launch a campaign, stood at 42% support in the survey of likely GOP presidential primary voters in New Hampshire, with Trump at 30%. The poll is energizing DeSantis supporters — including two outside political groups with no ties to governor, one national and one New Hampshire based — which are trying to convince the Florida governor to run for president. Both groups set up booths at the NHGOP meeting in Salem.

Until recently, Trump was the clear and overwhelming front-runner in the early 2024 GOP presidential nomination polls. But in a handful of national surveys released last month, Trump trailed DeSantis, whose standing with conservatives across the country has soared over the past three years. DeSantis was overwhelmingly re-elected in November for a second term leading Florida, a one-time battleground state that’s turned increasingly red the past two cycles.

Trump allies and supporters highlight that public opinion polling has long undercounted the former president’s support, dating back to his first campaign for the White House in 2016.

And Trump, during his comments in New Hampshire, touted his poll position in numerous surveys, claiming that ‘we are so far ahead in the polls.’

The former president took aim at his successor in the White House, criticizing President Biden on multiple fronts, including the current president’s proposal to move New Hampshire down a notch in the Democratic Party’s nominating calendar, which has infuriated both Democrats and Republicans in the Granite State.

Republicans are not altering their nominating calendar, keeping New Hampshire second in their schedule after the Iowa caucuses.

‘I make this solemn pledge — when I’m back in the White House I will ensure that New Hampshire remains the home of the first in the nation Republican primary for many, many years to come,’ Trump highlighted.

Trump’s stops in New Hampshire and South Carolina appear to be a move to plant a flag as his campaign starts to move into a higher gear.

‘It’s going to be the first of many trips,’ Trump campaign senior adviser Chris LaCivita told Fox News. ‘It’s something we’ve been looking forward to do. The early bird gets the worm. It’s all about getting out, organizing, getting your people together, getting them motivated, getting them excited.’

LaCivita emphasized that ‘we’re starting early and starting aggressive and putting this organization together, I think bodes well for the future.’

While Trump was the first candidate to announce, the field for the GOP presidential nomination will likely soon grow. Some of the likely or potential contenders hail from the two states Trump was stopping in on Saturday. Former two-term South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations during the Trump administration and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina appear to moving towards launching possible campaigns. And in New Hampshire, Republican Gov. Chris Sununu is also mulling a bid.

‘New Hampshire is full of tire kickers. We love to put candidates through their paces and Donald Trump is no exception to that. He’s going to have to work just like any other candidate who wants to win New Hampshire. He’s certainly shown he can do that. He did that in 2016 pretty handily. And he has without question the best infrastructure of any candidate, so he’s well positioned,’ veteran New Hampshire conservative activist Greg Moore told Fox News. 

But Moore, the longtime state director for Americans for Prosperity, emphasized that Trump is ‘still going to have to prove himself to New Hampshire voter just like every other candidate.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Nearly 300,000 illegal immigrants are known to have slipped past overwhelmed Border Patrol agents since the beginning of fiscal 2023, which began in October, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) sources tell Fox News.

Sources said there have been 293,993 known ‘gotaways’ who have evaded agents but have been spotted through another form of surveillance since Oct. 1.

That averages out to 2,450 a day in the last 120 days. Sources told Fox News the gotaways are now on pace for unprecedented numbers. And border officials are worried because they don’t know who these people are, where they are from or where they are trying to get to within the U.S. interior.

In fiscal 2022, there were nearly 600,000 gotaways. There were 389,155 gotaways at the border in fiscal 2021, and fiscal 2023 is on track to easily outpace those numbers. Last week, agents told Fox News there have been more than 1.2 million gotaways during the Biden administration.

Tom Homan, a former acting Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) director, told Fox News the number should ‘scare the hell out of every American’ and said there was a reason these migrants are not turning themselves in to Border Patrol to be processed and released into the U.S.

‘Why would they not take advantage of the program? Because they don’t want to be fingerprinted, and there’s a reason for that.

‘These are gang members. These are going to be sexual predators. These are going to be criminals. These are going to be people carrying fentanyl. Not all of them. But there’s a reason they didn’t turn themselves in to take advantage of the giveaway program of the Biden administration,’ he said.

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Those numbers come amid historic migrant encounter numbers at the U.S. border, with over 250,000 encounters in December alone, a new record.

The Biden administration has pointed to the unveiling of a new set of border security measures, including a humanitarian parole program for four nationalities combined with expanded Title 42 expulsions and a rule that would make migrants ineligible for asylum if they had passed through a third country but did not claim asylum there.

That program has gotten heat from both Republicans and Democrats. Democrats and left-wing groups have blasted the asylum ineligibility and Title 42 expansions as eroding the right to asylum.

Twenty Republican states have sued over the parole program, saying it is in breach of the Administrative Procedure Act and goes beyond congressional direction that limits parole to case-by-case situations. They say the 30,000-a-month limit placed on the program by the administration is in violation of those regulations.

The Biden administration is claiming that the program is working and that encounters of those nationalities have dropped 97% and that January’s encounters are on track to be the lowest since the beginning of the crisis in February 2021.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

It was one week ago that I wrote about Wayfair’s (W) big breakout in the Don’t Ignore This Chart blog. It had just broken above key resistance and volume accelerated to its highest level EVER! And EVER is a very long time! 22 million shares traded on Friday, January 20th as W gained 20.25% and short sellers suddenly found themselves in a box. Either BUY on Monday and end the pain or take a chance on massive unlimited losses as the strength continued. The smart ones ended their pain. For others, it’s become possibly the worst migraine imaginable! I said it would be an interesting week and it sure was as W gained another 36% last week. The bad news for the short sellers is that I don’t think the pain will subside next week either. Here’s the chart, showing yet another closing breakout on Friday’s close:

The volume last Monday set another record as 27.5 million shares changed hands. Many short sellers heeded the breakout and ended their misery after taking a big loss. Others stubbornly refused to give in and they are likely to face much more pain in the week ahead.

Did you miss this exciting opportunity on W on the long side? Well, I believe we have another stock that looks almost identical to Wayfair and it just broke out on Friday on more than triple its normal volume. There’s an increasing chance that we see an explosion higher next week. I’m featuring it on Monday morning in our FREE EB Digest newsletter. If you haven’t already subscribed, simply CLICK HERE and enter your name and email address. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

It was an immensely volatile and eventful week for the Markets as they headed towards the last weekly close before the Union Budget. The last three sessions, more particularly, the last two sessions remained marred by the severely bearish reactions to Hindenburg Research’s report on the Adani Group stocks. Hindenburg Research is a “forensic financial research” that specializes in spotting companies around the globe that are engaged in wrongdoings and frauds and they have accused Agani Group of brazen stock manipulation and running an accounting fraud scheme for decades.

The NIFTY, which was seen taking support on the 20-Week MA for five weeks in a row, suffered a strong bearish move on the downside; it violated crucial support levels and dragged resistance levels lower. The index saw a wide trading range of 707.70 points over the previous week. It eventually ended with a net loss of 423.30 points (-2.35%); from the intra-week high point, the NIFTY came off by 600-odd points. Volatility spiked; INDIAVIX rose sharply by 25.65% to 17.32.

The damage that the past sessions have inflicted on the markets has been significant from a technical perspective. More so when we head into the Union Budget this coming week. The NIFTY has violated the 20-Week MA on the weekly charts stands at 17896 and also the 100-DMA which is currently placed at 17950. In the process, the index has dragged its resistance points lower. The coming week has strong resistance at 17750 and 17860 levels. Supports come in at 17400 and 17250 levels.

The weekly RSI is at 47.95; it has marked a new 14-period low which is bearish. It stays natural and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and trades below the signal line.

A large Engulfing candle has emerged; its emergence while violating important support makes it even more potent in nature.

The pattern analysis shows that the NIFTY has ended up violating two important support levels on different timeframes of charts. It has breached the 20-Week MA which is at 17896 and has also ended up violating the 100-DMA which stands at 17950. This price action has dragged the resistance points for NIFTY quite lower. It also means that all technical pullbacks will find strong resistance at this point and may meet with selling pressure unless the zone of 17900-17950 is taken out convincingly.

We head into Union Budget this week; Union Budget is scheduled to be tabled on Thursday, February 02. This is set to infuse a lot of volatility over the coming days. On one side, the markets are yet to finish their reaction to Hindenburg Report where the allegations leveled are absolutely serious in nature; on the other hand, it is also set to react to Budget proposals that will be presented.

While the markets face the double-edged sword of volatility, the best way to navigate such an uncertain environment is to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels. Besides this, it would be best to stay invested in sectors like PSE, IT, FMCG, Pharma, etc., which are showing good improvement in the relative strength against the broader markets, or stay invested in low beta sectors that will stay less volatile than the markets in general. From a technical standpoint, NIFTY will not show any meaningful and sustainable up move so long as it stays below 17950. Overall, a highly cautious approach is advised for the coming week.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed

The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows some visible changes in the overall sectoral setup as compared to the previous week. NIFTY PSE, Metal, Infrastructure, PSU Bank, and commodities are placed inside the leading quadrant. Out of this, PSE is the only sector that is seen firmly rotating inside this quadrant. The others are showing paring of relative momentum against the broader markets.

Banknifty, Nifty Services Sector, and Financial Services Sector index have rolled inside the weakening quadrant. They may continue to perform individually but may not perform well on relative terms.

NIFTY Realty and Media Sector indexes are seen languishing inside the lagging quadrant. However, apart from this, Auto, Consumption, Midcap 100, and FMCG indices are inside the lagging quadrant but they are seen sharply improving on their relative momentum.

The pharma index has rolled inside the improving quadrant and is firmly placed along with the IT Index. The Energy Sector index is also inside the improving quadrant but it is seen slightly giving up on its relative momentum.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum for a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

We typically have a song or two in my head. After all, watching ticks is musical and has a lot of different beats.

And typically, those songs turn into parodies.

For this past week, the first song was sealed in our brains after Tesla’s extraordinary run. And then again after Friday’s PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) numbers were released. Core PCE excludes food and energy. PCE includes health care, education, haircuts, hospitality and more, accounts for about 50% of consumption. Powell has called it “the most important category for understanding the future evolution of core inflation.”

The first song? Reasons to be Cheerful 1,2,3 by Ian Dury and The Blockheads.

So, we got 1 (Tesla) and 2 (Softer Inflation) — what is 3?

Click here to read more about the lure of softer inflation, plus receive actionable information of key ETF indices and sectors.

Reason 3: Note on the chart that the Fed Funds rate is now inline with the Core PCE rate.

Powell should be doing a happy dance as this gives him the ammo to…. direct us to the next song, When Doves Cry by Prince. 

However, as doves fly, so will inflation….the ultimate conundrum we have been writing about (see the Outlook 2023).

Pretty significant bounce in lumber prices. You see our dear readers, as rates soften, as Fed pauses, as markets rally, as consumers spend money, as as as… 

Commodities wake up. It’s a vicious cycle. A simple economic formula of supply and demand.

Our Big View tool is invaluable in showing you the ratios among all the commodities and inflation ratios. Many raw materials remain in low supply. Copper, lithium, sugar, steel, to name a few. And speaking of sugar, on Friday, the price closed above 21 cents a pound. CANE, the Sugar Fund ETF closed on a new yearly high.

In 1972, supply shortfalls and rising demand, along with the devaluation of the dollar, all contributed to a large increase in the price of sugar. By February of 1974, with rising inflation, rising demand, and the perception of imminent shortages, sugar prices spiked to over 65¢ in November.

Now in 2023, there is speculation that smaller sugar output in India will force the country not to allow additional sugar exports. Furthermore, reduced sugar production in Europe may force European sugar and food manufacturers to import sugar, leading to tighter global supplies. 

If sugar is a barometer and mirror of the 1970’s, well here’s a bonus song for you all — 1979 by Smashing Pumpkins. “That we don’t even care as restless as we are..”

Recent Dailys, along with the Outlook for 2023 go deeper into precious metals and other trading tips.

Mish’s Picks are already up 10-20% outperforming the SPY!

Want to take advantage of her stellar track record and ensure a profitable trading year? For more detailed trading information, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more about Mish’s Premium trading service.

You don’t want to miss Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook, E-available now!

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“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

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Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Jon and Mish discuss how the market (still rangebound) is counting on a dovish Fed in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg.

Mish discusses price and what indices must do now in this appearance on Making Money with Charles Payne.

In this appearance on CMC Markets, Mish digs into her favourite commodity trades for the week and gives her technical take on where the trading opportunities for Gold, oil, copper, silver and sugar are.

Mish gives her thoughts on the big NYSE glitch on Tuesday, January 24 on this appearance for BNN Bloomberg!

Mish discusses the continued bull case for commodities and why the SPY will remain in a trading range in this appearance on Business First AM.

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): SPY has crossed the 200-DMA and is now slightly above it, but is still a very narrow price range below to 50-DMA. Held pivotal support, and now what was resistance is support at the 200-DMA and resistance is no longer 405, but 408 overhead.Russell 2000 (IWM): Filled the gap and continued to hold the 200-DMA and overhead resistance at 189 still. Closed at 189.58 resistance, now 190.66.Dow (DIA): Back over the 50-DMA and holding support at the 50-DMA; 341 is resistance still.Nasdaq (QQQ): Crossed the 50-DMA last Friday and closed above the 200-DMA and 50-DMA this Friday. First level of resistance is 299 at the 200-DMA; 200-DMA is support.Regional Banks (KRE): First level of support is 50-DMA now; it closed slightly above.Semiconductors (SMH): Still holding key support easily at the 50-WMA and 200-WMA. 237 is still support, 243 resistance.Transportation (IYT): First level of support, holding 227 with resistance at 231. Biotechnology (IBB): Still best sector, with 132 key support still holding and holding first level of support at 134 now, with 139 still resistance.Retail (XRT): Holding pivotal support at 63. First level of support at 66 resistance is still 70.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

How much weight should we put on the fact that the S&P 500 index powered above its 200-day moving average this week? If history is any indication, then this is actually a fairly momentous occasion. Unless it’s a repeat of March 2022, in which case we’re obviously poised for a push to new lows any minute now.

To be clear, any signal considered bullish or bearish is based on the average reaction back through the history of the financial markets. So, instead of a signal always being 100% bullish or 100% bearish, I tend to think in terms of tendencies. In short, we should ask ourselves, “What tends to happen after this signal has occurred?”

Today, we’ll dig into a brief history of the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average.

The 200-Day as a Market Barometer

One of my mentors used to say, “Nothing good happens below the 200-day moving average.” To rephrase, it pays to be patient for a move above the 200-day moving average, because, until then, it’s at best a bear market rally.

Way back in 2021 (actually not that long ago!), the SPX stayed well above its 200-day moving average. In fact, it often tested the 50-day moving average, and pretty much every one of those tests ended up being a decent buying opportunity.

In January 2022, when the S&P 500 broke below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, it certainly suggested that something was different. This is the sort of “change of character” that I hope to identify in my daily and weekly market analysis routines. Attempts to break out above the 200-day in August and November 2022 failed to see any upside follow through. So, when I see the price break above this moving average earlier this month, then the subsequent followthrough with higher swing highs over the last five trading days, I have to consider that a bullish tell.

Going into next week, I’d love to see a confirmed break above the 4100 level, which, I believe, would open the way to a retest of the August 2022 high around 4300. But let’s continue our analysis of market history and consider some alternative approaches to the 200-day moving average.

The Moving Average Crossover Technique

While there is often plenty of noise produced when we achieve a “golden cross” or “death cross” on the major averages, I have found them to not be the most effective ways to determine uptrends and downtrends. However, while the timing may not be perfect on these signals, I would admit that the occurrence of a golden cross next week (which seems highly likely if we rally further around the Fed meeting) would confirm even more strength in equities off the October low.

You’ll notice on this chart that, when the 50-day moving average (blue) crosses above the 200-day (red), it’s often way after the bottom. And that makes sense for a trend-following indicator! The most recent buy signals were in July 2020 (well after the March low) and April 2019 (after a big rally off the December 2018 low).

So while waiting for the golden cross may not feel like the best timing signal ever created, the fact remains that, in a secular bull market phase (which we are arguably still in), these signals often lead to much stronger gains.

We could also strip out the 50-day moving average and just look at the slope of the 200-day moving average. On The Final Bar this week, my guest Willie Delwiche did a great job explaining why the slope of the 200-day can be an important data point.

You can easily see the relationship between the slope of the 200-day moving average (in purple on this chart) and the trend of highs and lows in the raw price data (in light gray). So when the 200-day has been sloping lower and then turns higher, this could be a better indication of an upside follow-through than some of the other techniques we’ve discussed.

Putting It All Together With Other Indicators

You have to remember, however, that moving averages don’t just happen in a vacuum. There are other indicators we can use to confirm or deny the signals we’re finding in a simple analysis of the moving average patterns.

Let’s add the PPO and RSI on the weekly S&P 500 chart and see how the current configuration relates to other market declines. Now that we’re using a weekly chart, I’m showing the 40-week moving average (similar to the 200-day moving average and shown in red) as well as the 150-week moving average in green.

If you look at 2022-2023 and compare it to 2015-2016 and 2007-2008, you’ll notice that these factors are all the same for the S&P 500 index:

A new all-time high, followed by a lower high and a failure to hold the 40-week moving average, which then turns lowerA retest of the 40-week moving average from below, then a break below the 150-week moving averageThe PPO gives a buy signal, followed soon after by another sell signalThe RSI shows a bullish momentum divergence

But then the patterns start to diverge a bit. In 2008, the S&P failed to get back above the 40-week moving average. There was no additional buy signal from the PPO, and the RSI plunged into the oversold territory as the SPX accelerated lower for the next six months.

In 2016, however, the S&P briefly dipped below the 150-week moving average before powering back above this long-term barometer. The index then moved above its 40-week moving average, the RSI pushed above 50, and the PPO generated a new buy signal.

Now look at the current configuration, and you’ll notice that it matches much more closely to 2016 than 2008. The conclusion? This may be just the beginning of a bullish recovery as positive momentum builds for stocks.

Want to digest this article in video format? You can find it over at my YouTube channel.

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my YouTube channel!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.   Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.