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The Pentagon will give the full Senate a briefing on the Chinese surveillance balloon that was shot down off the coast of South Carolina on Saturday after traversing the continental United States, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said on Sunday. 

The Gang of Eight, which consists of eight Republican and Democrat leaders from both chambers of congress, will be briefed as soon as Tuesday. 

The Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment will conduct the briefing for the full Senate on Feb. 15. 

‘The briefing involves where we stand with respect to China on everything from surveillance capabilities to research and development, to advanced weapons systems and other critical platforms,’ Sen. Schumer said at a press conference on Sunday. 

‘It will determine which side, China or the United States, has the upper hand in toe-to-toe conflicts, both economic and geo-military.’

An F-22 fighter jet fired a missile at the balloon when it was several nautical miles off the Carolina coast on Saturday afternoon. It had first entered U.S. airspace north of Alaska’s Aleutian Islands on Jan. 28 and was spotted on Wednesday above Montana, which has fields of nuclear missile silos at Malmstrom Air Force Base. 

Republicans have pilloried President Biden for waiting several days until the balloon was over the ocean to shoot it down. 

‘I think more damaging than any surveillance is assessing our response,’ Sen. Rand Paul, R-K.Y., told Fox News’ Maria Bartiromo on ‘Sunday Morning Futures.’ 

‘Since we’ve entered into a nuclear age, there are responses that have to occur in seconds to minutes, and the fact that this administration would dither for days over a balloon I think gives pause to us about how well we’re protected and whether or not they have the ability to make decisions that would have to be made in seconds or minutes.’

Schumer hit back at that criticism on Sunday, accusing Republicans of ‘playing politics with U.S. intelligence.’

‘We sent a clear message to China that this is not acceptable. We protected civilians. We gained more intelligence while protecting our own sensitive information,’ Schumer said. ‘The bottom line here is that shooting down this surveillance balloon over water wasn’t just the safest option, but it was the one that maximized our intelligence payload.’

President Biden said that he wanted to shoot the balloon down on Wednesday, but intelligence officials wanted to wait until it was safe to do so. 

This may not have been the first time that China attempted to spy on the U.S. with a balloon. A senior administration official told Fox News Digital on Sunday that U.S. intelligence assesses that Chinese surveillance balloons ‘transited the continental U.S. briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time.’

Former President Trump and national security officials from his administration, meanwhile, denied that any balloons were detected over the U.S. while he was in office. 

‘This never happened. It would have never happened,’ Trump told Fox News Digital on Sunday.

‘It never happened with us under the Trump administration and if it did, we would have shot it down immediately.’ 

Fox News’ Brooke Singman and Lucas Tomlinson contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Information suggesting that Chinese spy balloons traveled over the continental United States during the Trump administration was ‘discovered after’ former President Donald Trump left office, a senior administration official told Fox News.

A defense official on Saturday said Chinese spy balloons briefly traveled over the United States at least three times during the Trump administration.

Trump and a number of his top national security and defense officials refuted the claim, telling Fox News Digital that it ‘never happened.’

But on Sunday, a senior administration official told Fox News Digital that ‘U.S. intelligence, not the Biden administration’ assesses that ‘PRC (People’s Republic of China) government surveillance balloons transited the continental U.S. briefly at least three times during the prior administration and once that we know of at the beginning of this administration, but never for this duration of time.’

The official told Fox News that ‘this information was discovered after the [Trump] administration left.’

‘They went undetected,’ the official told Fox News Digital.

The official explained that Chinese surveillance balloons are ‘part of a larger pattern.’

‘These balloons are all part of a PRC fleet of balloons developed to conduct surveillance operations, which have also violated the sovereignty of other countries,’ the official explained, adding that these activities are ‘often undertaken at the direction of the People’s Liberation Army.’

The official said that over the past several years, Chinese balloons have been spotted over countries across five continents, including in East Asia, South Asia and Europe.

‘Two things can be true at once: this happened, and it wasn’t detected,’ the official told Fox News Digital.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials told Fox News on Sunday that a Chinese spy balloon crashed into the Pacific off the coast of Hawaii four months ago. Those officials said that at least one Chinese spy balloon flew over portions of Texas and Florida during the Trump administration.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Environmental groups that have led litigation targeting the lobster fishing industry have been heavily funded by various liberal dark money groups that don’t disclose their individual donors, a Fox News Digital review of tax filings found. 

The organizations — the Center For Biological Diversity, Conservation Law Foundation (CLF) and Defenders Of Wildlife — first filed a joint federal lawsuit against the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) in 2018, arguing a rule issued by the agency years earlier failed to properly protect the endangered North Atlantic right whales from lobster fishing equipment. In April 2020, a federal judge ruled in favor of the groups, ordering the NMFS to issue tighter restrictions.

‘Right whales have been getting tangled up and killed in lobster gear for far too long,’ Kristen Monsell, the oceans program litigation director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said at the time. ‘This decision sends a clear signal that federal officials must protect these desperately endangered animals from more painful and deadly entanglements before it’s too late.’

As a result of the decision, the Biden administration moved forward with new regulations on lobster fishing equipment in May 2021. The coalition of environmental groups then filed another lawsuit challenging the new rule and, in July 2022, again received a favorable judgment from a federal court. CLF senior attorney Arica Fuller applauded the ruling, saying it made clear that ‘fishery managers must do more to protect’ right whales.

However, as a result of the litigation and tighter rules, Maine lawmakers and business leaders have argued that thousands of lobster fishing jobs are at risk. The updated NMFS restrictions stated that fixed gear fisheries like the Maine lobster fishery must reduce their risk to whales by a staggering 98%. The first restrictions were rolled out in May and more restrictions are planned for December 2024 and 2030.

‘Friendship, Maine, is the name of the town that I grew up in and that I live in now and where all the previous generations in my family fished and operated from,’ Dustin Delano, a fourth-generation lobsterman, told FOX Business in December. ‘Basically, the lobster industry is the backbone — that’s what everything was built around and that’s pretty much the only option we have here. Without it, I don’t think there would be much left.’

Overall, Maine’s lobster industry — which by state law is made up entirely of small business operators — provides the U.S. with about 90% of the nation’s lobster supply, making the industry a top economic driver in the state, and boosting other related industries as well. In 2021, Maine’s lobster fishery generated $724.9 million of revenue, the largest amount in state history.

The three groups that have led litigation pushing for greater restrictions on the industry have a long history accepting funding from left-wing groups with unknown wealthy donors, according to a Fox News Digital review of tax filings.

For example, the Center For Biological Diversity has received millions of dollars from left-wing dark money groups including the Rockefeller Family Fund, the Patagonia Fund and Pew Charitable Trusts. The center has been the recipient of grants worth nearly $8 million from the Sandler Foundation, $1 million from the Wilburforce Foundation, $850,000 from Environment Now and another $815,000 from the Frankel Family Foundation, according to Influence Watch.

One of the Center for Biological Diversity’s earliest benefactors was the Wyss Foundation, an organization founded by liberal Swiss billionaire donor Hansjorg Wyss. The foundation has wired hundreds of thousands of dollars to the group and Wyss has pledged $10 million to it, The New York Times reported.

Over the last decade alone, the group’s annual revenue, which is mainy comprised of grants and contributions, has surged more than 300% to $27.3 million.

The CLF, meanwhile, has been awarded grants from the Rockefeller Family Fund, the Walton Family Foundation and dozens of other foundations. The Boston-based group has also accepted money from businesses and other organizations including Facebook, the Schwab Charitable Fund and the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Foundation.

In 2017, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation gave the CLF $4.3 million.

And the Defenders Of Wildlife has received funding from the Wyss Foundation and George Soros’ Open Society Foundation. In 2018, the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation gave the group a $4 Million grant.

In addition, Defenders of Wildlife received $1.3 million from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation which earmarked the grants for projects protected endangered species and pushing a moratorium on offshore fossil fuel drilling. 

The Center for Biological Diversity, CLF and Defenders of Wildlife didn’t respond to requests for comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

All eyes are on China and President Biden’s handling of the spy balloon from the Communist state that was shot down off the coast of South Carolina ahead of his State of the Union speech Tuesday.

Republicans are voicing concerns that the administration has ignored or downplayed the growing threat of the Chinese Communist Party after a Chinese surveillance balloon was allowed to drift across the continental U.S. for several days before being taken down by the U.S. military.

The president only mentioned China three times during his last address on March 1, arguing that his Bipartisan Infrastructure Law ‘put us on a path to win the economic competition of the 21st century that we face with the rest of the world, particularly China.’

‘But, folks, to compete for the jobs of the future, we also need to level the playing field with China and other competitors,’ he said at the time. ‘That’s why it’s so important to pass the bipartisan Innovation Act sitting in Congress that will make record investments in emerging technologies and American manufacturing. We used to invest almost 2% of our GDP in research and development.  We don’t now. Can’t — China is.’

News commentators have speculated that the president won’t mention the balloon incident, which many have criticized as a blunder, at all during his speech Tuesday evening. Whether he takes a tougher stance against China and Chinese President Xi Jinping, however, remains to be seen.

The Biden administration first announced on Thursday that it had been tracking the Chinese ballon after it first entered U.S. airspace in Alaska’s Aleutian Islands five days earlier.

Republicans have theorized that the Biden administration declined to tell the American public about the balloon’s existence sooner because they didn’t want it to interfere with Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s planned trip to Beijing. Some critics have suggested the administration wouldn’t haven mentioned it at all if the balloon hadn’t been spotted by civilians floating over Billings, Montana.

Blinken’s trip ended up being canceled anyway, while Republicans hammered Biden for failing to shoot down the balloon earlier.

The White House said that Biden followed the advice of the Pentagon and top military leaders not to shoot the craft down over the U.S. in case it caused civilian casualties and other collateral damage.

On Sunday, U.S. officials revealed that another Chinese spy balloon crashed into the Pacific off the coast of Hawaii four months ago, and at least one Chinese spy balloon flew over portions of Texas and Florida during the Trump administration, despite the former president’s insistence it never happened.

Former President Trump and a number of his top national security and defense officials pushed back against Biden admin claims that Chinese surveillance balloons briefly transited the continental United States during the Trump administration in statements to Fox News Digital.

Former Trump White House national security adviser John Bolton told Fox News Digital that he never heard of anything like this under his tenure.

‘I don’t know of any balloon flights by any power over the United States during my tenure, and I’d never heard of any of that occurring before I joined in 2018,’ Bolton said. ‘I haven’t heard of anything that occurred after I left either.’

Robert O’Brien, who served as White House national security adviser from 2019 to 2021, told Fox News Digital that he had no knowledge of anything like this occurring.

‘Unequivocally, I have never been briefed on the issue,’ O’Brien said, telling Fox News Digital that his team, which included Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser, and Allison Hooker, who served as senior adviser to Asia, also were not briefed on these activities.

Fox News’ Brooke Singman contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie traded barbs with former President Donald Trump on Sunday after the former president called him ‘sloppy’ and a ‘failed’ governor. 

‘I’m the target of Donald Trump’s new tantrum,’ Christie wrote on Twitter. ‘None of his lies about me today bothered him when he asked me to prep him for every general election debate or offered me 3 different cabinet posts.’

‘He’s the only man to lose to Biden outside Delaware,’ he added. ‘That loss to Joe still stings.’

Christie’s tweet was in response to a post by Trump on his social media website, Truth Social, that slammed the former Republican governor’s failed 2016 presidential bid as a ‘complete disaster.’

”Sloppy’ Chris Christie, the failed former Governor of New Jersey, spent almost his entire last year in office campaigning in New Hampshire for the Republican Nomination for President,’ Trump said. 

‘Much like his term in office, where he left with an Approval Rating of just 9%, his Presidential campaign was a complete disaster,’ he continued. ‘He endorsed me the following day, later recommended Chris Wray for the FBI (how did that work out?), went down in flames, and then was SALVAGED by ABC FAKE NEWS. I never wanted him!’

Trump’s post came after Christie indicated earlier Sunday that he didn’t believe the former president couldn’t beat Biden in a 2024 presidential rematch.

‘I don’t think so,’ Christie responded when asked on ABC’s ‘This Week’ by co-anchor Jonathan Karl whether Trump could defeat Biden.

So far, Trump is the only candidate to formally announce his 2024 presidential bid, as Biden is expected to announce sometime after his State of the Union address Tuesday.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Chinese spy balloon that traveled across the U.S. likely was able to send sensitive data to the Chinese Communist Party before it was shot down by the U.S. military Saturday, foreign policy experts told Fox News Digital.

Military officials decided to take out the balloon exactly one week after they first discovered it in Alaska. However, President Biden was not made aware of the balloon until Tuesday, when it was over Montana. Local news broke the story of its existence on Thursday. 

The Pentagon said Thursday it ‘acted immediately to protect against the collection of sensitive information’ from the balloon. But geopolitical experts said there is little reason to believe those efforts were successful, as the balloon almost certainly transferred surveillance data over to China as it flew over several military bases.

Brandon Weichert, author of Winning Space, said he believes China successfully gathered U.S. military and technological information through its spy balloon.

‘With all due respect to the Pentagon I think that’s B.S. — they’re saying that to protect their ego and image,’ Weichert told Fox News Digital. ‘This was a long-ranged surveillance mission prompted partly by comments from the Pentagon about the possibility of going to war.’

Gordon Chang, a senior fellow at the Gatestone Institute, said it is all but confirmed China’s mission was successful. The most scandalous aspect, he said, was that Biden was not briefed on the balloon until days after it was discovered by his military. 

‘If President Biden was not informed as he claims, then he has cause to dismiss the Secretary of Defense and Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff,’ Chang told Fox News Digital. ‘This failure could have grave consequences for the United States.’

The Pentagon said Saturday that three similar spy balloons from China flew over the U.S. under the Trump administration — a claim disputed by former Defense Secretary Mark Esper and former Secretary of Defense Mike Pompeo. A senior administration official told Fox News that the existence of the Chinese spy balloons over U.S. territory amid the Trump administration was not discovered until the Biden administration took over.

Rebekah Koffler, a former Defense Intelligence Agency officer specializing in foreign aerospace, said there is a ‘high probability that the Chinese government infiltrated sensitive US data’ through its spy balloon.

‘This brazen intelligence operation mounted by Beijing, targeting the US homeland, almost certainly enabled the Chinese military to glean critical insights into the Biden Administration’s policy and posture towards China, and President Biden’s ‘red lines,’ when it comes to foreign aerospace assets, breaching of US sovereign airspace,’ Koffler told Fox News Digital. ‘These insights are very useful for China in developing deterrence strategies for dissuading the United States from intervening in China’s future aggressive operations against Taiwan.’

The Pentagon said it waited to destroy the Chinese balloon over concerns the debris could harm civilians and destroy property. Weichert said there may be more at play, as Secretary of State Anthony Blinken was set to visit China on an official trip this week before it was suspended after media backlash over the balloon, leading to a public debacle that ‘made us look weak.’

‘This was a political decision — they didn’t want to upset China before the event,’ Weichert told Fox News Digital. ‘Biden is willing to sell out our national security to get a piece of paper with China on global warming.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

I’m a follower and believer of history when it comes to the stock market. After years of research, I understand that some aspects of U.S. equity performance are rather transparent and resulting technical signals generally can be relied upon. There were plenty of warning signals to open 2022 that suggested we were in short- to mid-term trouble and I wrote and talked about them throughout the first six months of 2022. But many of my signals changed in mid-June, leading me to call a bottom in June 2022. The risks of remaining short were too great, while the reward to risk on the long side had improved considerably. Those who transitioned back into the stock market last summer have been handsomely rewarded with the S&P 500 up 13% now off that low.

I was criticized for calling for a bear market before it started and later criticized when I suggested the bear market was over – well before anyone else suggested it. It takes thick skin to go against the masses, but I simply call what I see. It helps that I’m not brainwashed by all the negativity in the media. The lesson here is to keep StockCharts.com turned on and all the outside noise TUNED OUT!

The Fed and Inflation

On Wednesday, the Fed acknowledged it’s winning the war on inflation. We’ll probably see one more 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate, but beyond that, I see a much more dovish Fed. I believe rates will come down later in 2023 and, if the January jobs report was any indication, a very soft landing is entirely possible. Growth with falling rates is NIRVANA for equity prices. In 2022, we had two quarters of negative GDP with rising rates. That’s what the S&P 500 priced in during its 27% cyclical bear market drop. The NASDAQ fell closer to 40%. It was all baked in.

Bear Market: Cyclical vs. Secular

Many were, and some still are, calling for a secular bear market, which is a long-term bear market. The problem is that you can’t call a long-term bear market until it confirms. We’ve had 3 secular bear markets since 1950. 3!!!! If you’re counting them on your hand, you still have two fingers left. Put another way, they don’t happen very often, yet the Peter Schiffs of the world are granted way too much air time on CNBC to spew their nonsense. Think about it. Why would CNBC continue to cater to someone who has repeatedly missed the biggest bull markets in history and called the market wrong year after year after year? It’s the train-wreck approach to driving viewership, an embarrassment if you ask me.

The Big Picture

Anyone who has been to any of my market outlook webinars knows that I start off every one of them with a BIG PICTURE 100-year chart of the S&P 500. Here’s what it currently looks like:

Honestly, how can you look at this chart and continually be bearish U.S. equities? We are in another long-term period (secular BULL market) where U.S. equities are in favor. There will occasionally be short-term periods of weakness, especially after huge rallies like we had in 2020 and 2021. Those are cyclical bear markets that require patience. You need to recognize those periods BEFORE they happen, because swing trading strategies will no longer be rewarded and you can lose a lot of money quickly. That’s why I told EarningsBeats.com members at the beginning of 2022 that we needed to realize that conditions would change and swing trading wouldn’t work. You either need to move to cash or become more aggressive on the short side. In early February, I hosted a webinar, Anatomy of a Cyclical Bear Market, to help our members understand what we were going to be facing. If you simply stuck with what had been working, you’d be no better off than Cathie Wood, who managed her ARK funds into the ground over the past couple years. She never adjusted to the cyclical bear market at hand and her investors paid a ridiculously-hefty price. It should have been avoided.

But let’s get back to that chart above. I use it for perspective. And “perspective” is my word for 2023, replacing “patience” in 2022. This big picture view helps me weather markets like 2022, believing that we’ll come out of it stronger than ever, returning to all-time highs. But you have to exercise patience during the turmoil. During secular bear markets, the monthly PPO turns decidedly negative. That has yet to happen as the monthly PPO remains positive and looks as though it’s beginning to turn back up. Also, during secular bear markets, the monthly RSI dips well below 40. The monthly RSI has already bottomed above 40 and has moved back up into the 50s. You need technical confirmation of a secular bear market and we’re seeing none.

The Future Path

We’ve seen a very nice rally. January was one of the strongest on record, the 9th best January on the S&P 500 since 1950. Strong Januarys almost always result in very strong years. It’s not a perfect science and certainly not a guarantee, but there’s a lot of history that suggests the probabilities of a strong year increase substantially. Also, the biggest issue that we faced in 2022 was sentiment. It was way too bullish at the end of 2021 on the heels of the biggest 22-month increase in the S&P 500 since the 1930s. We badly needed sentiment to turn bearish and that only happens one way – a lengthy bear market where everyone’s psyche turns from ecstasy to despair. We needed all the YouTube experts (sarcasm) unanimously believing it was impossible to see a market bottom and that our only path was lower. That’s the type of mentality that marks bottoms.

Fortunately, after months of pain, we got to where we needed to get and the bottom formed. The October 2022 low will mark the 7th time in the last 14 bear markets (6 of 11 if we only look at cyclical bear markets) that the bear market bottom occurred in October. Because many investors do not recognize the end of bear markets, they also miss out on the huge market gains that typically follow. Below is a table of the 11 cyclical bear markets since 1950, showing the gains made in the following 6-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 5-year periods:

Look at those 1-year returns after cyclical bear markets ended. The worst 1-year return was 29.59%. If we apply that WORST return to the October 2022 low, then we should expect the S&P 500 to be at 4525 by October 2023. If we apply the AVERAGE 1-year return of 42.50%, then we’ll see the S&P 500 at 4975. All of a sudden, all-time highs don’t seem to be that far away.

Unfortunately, this is the type of research at EarningsBeats.com that CNBC and other media outlets could produce if they truly were interested in providing valuable educational content for their viewers. But it’s all about the mighty dollar. Education takes a back seat to profits. Their interests lie in advertising dollars and scaring viewers into watching with ridiculously-bearish headlines, and the quicker that everyone recognizes that, then the quicker they can walk away and focus on what’s truly important.

Please join my FREE EB Digest newsletter if you haven’t already. CLICK HERE to enter your name and email address. There’s no credit card required and you can unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

Are the major stock indexes under Accumulation? If so, we Wyckoffians would expect an important Markup (uptrend) to follow. Accumulation is the process of large interests (known as Composite Operators) stealthily Absorbing shares of stocks they expect to appreciate during the subsequent Markup Phase. Accumulation can take an indeterminant period of time to form. The C.O. will systematically Accumulate their ‘Line of Stock’ during this trendless price structure. Eventually a greater number of Institutional type investors will begin competing for the remaining supply of stock, which indicates that Absorption (and therefore Accumulation) is nearly complete. The Law of Supply and Demand is at work here. Demand is increasing and Supply has been largely Absorbed. This unbalanced condition will eventually throw stocks and the market into a new uptrend. 

The S&P 500 Index has been range-bound since May 2022. Now the Index is approaching the late-May peak, which we define as Resistance. The May Support and Resistance have largely contained trading as price has been unable to meaningfully escape this zone to initiate a new trend. Now the $SPX has rallied to the May ’22 Resistance level. Is Absorption nearly complete, which would allow the markup to proceed from here? Below is a chart study of $SPX:

S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Accumulation Study

Chart Notes:

Preliminary Support (PS) and Selling Climax (SC) stop the decline in May and June.Spring & Test in October arrives at the end of the 3rd quarter.Two stage rally carries to the Resistance Zone & fulfilled the swing trading PnF Objective.The Supply TrendLine has defined the 2022 Bear trend stride and has finally been exceeded in January.Positive breadth divergence or Green Shoots appear as Spring & Test develop.  

S&P 500 Index Point & Figure Case Study

PnF Chart Notes:

Range Bound since May. Is Accumulation forming? Swing PnF Count generated at 3rd Quarter Spring & Test.Minimum Swing Count objective has been met as the $SPX enters Resistance Zone.A Minor Sign of Strength (mSOS) developed as $SPX exceeded the December peak.The index accelerated into the mSoS, Resistance Zone and minimum PnF count simultaneously.Watch for a potential reaction with expanding volume to signal exhaustion of the rally.Price momentum could accelerate into the 4,350 PnF upper target zone. This would be a positive.Watch for a Major Sign of Strength (MSoS) above the August high (4,300).After a MSoS, a Last Point of Support (LPS) or Back Up (BU) would be expected next.Once a LPS or BU is identified, Accumulation can turn into a Markup.

Caution is warranted at the Resistance area of a trading range. Traders must respect the possibility of continuation of the downtrend in an ongoing bear market. The FED is on a campaign to raise interest rates which is a normal bear market backdrop. We have enjoyed a strong rally with expanding breadth from the 3rd quarter lows. PnF horizontal count technique has nicely targeted the price objective recently fulfilled. 

Wyckoffians are ‘tape readers’. Therefore, we will watch for the diminished spread and volume characteristics that accompany a reaction into a LPS or BU. These events would affirm late stage Accumulation and would be a juncture for positioning stocks for a more important Markup phase.

All the Best,

Bruce

@rdwyckoff 

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional. 

Power Charting Video

The most recent Power Charting video focuses on finding Industry Group leadership. In this case study the Semiconductor Group is profiled. A simple scan is used to identify stocks that are leading.

Finding Leadership in Semiconductors

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Americans may be grumbling about the new rules of tipping — whatever those are exactly — but they’re ponying up anyway.

Figures that the payment processor Square provided to NBC News show the frequency of gratuities at full-service restaurants grew 17% in the fourth quarter last year from the same period in 2021, while tip frequency at quick-service restaurants rose 16%. Restaurants deemed quick-service, like coffee shops and fast-food chains, typically do not offer wait service, the company said.

Square found those tipping increases came on top of gains in the third quarter for both types of establishment.

T.J. Horn, a 41-year-old construction laborer based in Boston, said a 20% tip has been his standard minimum since the lockdown era, even on a $3 cup of coffee.

“It’s just become a common expected thing in my brain,” said Horn, who added that having friends in the restaurant industry softened his outlook on tipping. “I see how much abuse they take on a daily basis.”

The jump in tipping frequency comes despite a period of record inflation that has whittled away many consumers’ discretionary income. And it coincides with a shift toward spending on services and experiences, like travel and dining out, during the recovery from the pandemic recession.

The past few years’ economic changes may have helped shape attitudes like Horn’s, consumer experts say.

“Big disruptive moments reset habits,” said Americus Reed, Whitney M. Young Jr. professor of marketing at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school.

“The big part is just a realization and appreciation for human contact. If we get really great service, and you have a really great connection with a service provider, it fills you with joy,” he said. “It’s almost like a chemical reaction — that you’re paying for that dopamine hit.”

But that doesn’t mean all patrons who’ve been tipping more often are doing so solely out of the kindness of their hearts.

The point-of-service, or POS, systems that restaurants increasingly use to process payments have made it easier than ever for customers to offer — and businesses to solicit — gratuities, experts said.

“People don’t like to expend cognitive resources,” said Deidre Popovich, associate professor of marketing at Texas Tech University. “These retail establishments have gotten better at providing us with those default choices to kind of prompt that tipping behavior.”

In a recent survey of restaurant executives by industry group Hospitality Technology, 71% of respondents said using data to “understand guest preferences and behavior” was their main reason for making POS upgrades. For 57%, enabling new payment options was paramount.

Those devices and software also give businesses more ways to calibrate tip amounts. For example, managers can set the tip percentages customers can choose from, and even include a certain selection in the subtotal by default.

Not everybody likes that, and some consumers have been complaining on social media about ‘tipflation.’

“This is your job. It’s getting way out of hand,” chirped one Twitter user who said they recently declined to tip on a Starbucks order.

“At the cafe pressing ‘no tip’ on the tiny iPad as I maintain eye contact with the barista,” another posted, as though narrating their defiance of what is sometimes an uncomfortable social interaction. 

So far, the rise in tipping frequency suggests resisters remain a minority faction. Even if some find the POS nudges irritating, many are likely adding a tip anyway.

I can help out where I can, but you don’t tip the clerk at CVS for taking the aspirin bottle and handing it to you.

Tyler Cooper

Tyler Cooper, 34, who lives in Oakland, Calif., and works as a tech marketer, said he’s noticed the default tip selection at quick-service shops “keeps increasing.” He said he adds gratuity for complicated orders but is frustrated with what he sees as a growing expectation to subsidize workers’ pay.

“I make a good living, so I can help out where I can,” he said, “but you don’t tip the clerk at CVS for taking the aspirin bottle and handing it to you.”

Consumers aren’t necessarily tipping more generously, though. POS operator Toast found the average tip of around 19% on its systems has remained basically flat for much of the past 12 months. Even quick-service restaurant tips have held steady, hovering at just under 17% in the second and third quarters last year as inflation surged.

“Tipping is still slightly up compared to the time right before the pandemic in 2019,” a Toast spokesperson added.

Hannah Mase. Shane DuBois

Hannah Mase, a 25-year-old barista at Lobos Coffee Roasters, an Orlando-based cafe, said a customer recently tipped 14 cents when prompted on the touchpad. Mase said that while she thinks American tipping culture is “kind of ridiculous” in the absence of more equitable wages, gratuity often comprises a substantial portion of her paycheck.

Of the $765 she earned during the last two-week pay period, with her base pay of $10.50 an hour, $263 came from pooled tips.

“We’re making you something not from thin air, but from all the ingredients that we have back here,” said Mase, who is also pursuing a recording arts degree at nearby Full Sail University. “It’s not exactly advertised how much somebody at a local coffee shop is making hourly, but those tips do go a long way.”

Many consumers described encountering tipping prompts sans wait service as “awkward.” Even patrons who are open to adding to their tabs said they’re unsure when to tip and how much.

Diane Gottsman, an etiquette expert and founder of the Protocol School of Texas, recommends gratuity in most situations but said consumers looking to deflate their anxiety at the register can ask themselves: Did they give me a reason to tip?

“Were they friendly? Do they know your name?” she said. “It’s not obligatory, but I do encourage you to be generous when possible.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

The U.S. is considering a plan to shoot down the Chinese spy balloon once it crosses over the Atlantic Ocean, where it could fall without causing harm to anyone below and potentially be recovered, a senior U.S. official told Fox News.

The Federal Aviation Administration ordered a ground stop at three airports and closed airspace in parts of North and South Carolina effective until 2:45 E.T., citing ‘national security initiatives’ in the area. 

Officials said it is unclear if President Biden has made a final decision on the plan, The Associated Press reported earlier. Biden addressed the balloon briefly Saturday in response to a reporter’s question, saying, ‘we’re going to take care of it.’ 

The surveillance balloon was most recently seen flying over the southeastern United States Saturday, spotted in parts of North and South Carolina as it made its way toward the Atlantic coast.

Biden was briefed on situation earlier this week and had asked for military options to take the balloon down. But Pentagon officials advised against shooting it down over the continental United States, cautioning that falling debris could put American civilians and infrastructure on the ground in danger.

Pentagon officials on Thursday disclosed that a surveillance balloon believed to be of Chinese origin had been tracked flying over Montana. China’s foreign ministry acknowledged the balloon was Chinese on Friday, claiming it was a civilian weather aircraft that had blown off course.

Senior State Department officials disputed that claim, identifying it as Chinese surveillance craft and calling its presence in U.S. airspace an ‘unacceptable’ violation of American sovereignty. Secretary of State Antony Blinken indefinitely postponed a planned trip to China to meet with President Xi Jinping because of the incident and called China’s actions ‘irresponsible’ in a phone call with his counterpart Wang Yi on Friday. 

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China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs downplayed Blinken’s decision to cancel the trip even as diplomatic relations have tensed after the incident.

‘In actuality, the U.S. and China have never announced any visit, the U.S. making any such announcement is their own business, and we respect that,’ China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement Saturday morning.

The Pentagon also acknowledged reports of a second balloon flying over Latin America. ‘We now assess it is another Chinese surveillance balloon,’ Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, Pentagon press secretary, said in a statement.

PRC officials have denied accusations of spying and asked the U.S. not to ‘smear’ it because of the balloon. 

Wang said China ‘has always strictly followed international law, we do not accept any groundless speculation and hype. Faced with unexpected situations, both parties need to keep calm, communicate in a timely manner, avoid misjudgments and manage differences.’

The Associated Press contributed to this report. 

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