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Real Problems in Real Estate

The correction in stock prices may be gathering steam, and the potential for a full-blown liquidity crisis seems to be rising. The reason may be that several big players in commercial real estate have recently defaulted on billions of dollars’ worth of loans.

Last week, in this space I wrote: “Something happened to the markets around Valentine’s Day which could reverse the recent uptrend.” Well, the trend is increasingly wobbly, and we are getting new information which may explain at least part of what’s happening.

Real Trouble in Real Estate

The hotter than expected PCE (Personal Consumption Deflator) data grabbed the headlines. But it seems that its arrival on the scene may be more of a catalyst for an already churning dynamic in the market than the cause for the renewed selling on 2/24/23.

Think commercial real estate defaults.

Over the last few weeks, in this space, I’ve reported that several major real estate investors have faced increasing difficulties. I’ve also noted that it is possible that these, along with other commercial property REITs that are having problems with foreclosures, may have been selling U.S. Treasury bonds in order to raise cash to fund operations as their cash flow dries up due to rising vacancies.

I’ve noted that Brookfield’s LA default (highlighted in prior link) has been well reported, while the even bigger Blackstone (BSX) is also having its share of problems along with Starwood (STWD). Brookfield’s (BAM) CEO Bruce Flatt is calling the L.A. default insignificant, while citing demand for premium space around the world, in places like Dubai, as more than enough to offset the L.A. issues for the company.

Nevertheless, the Toronto-based asset manager’s stock is rolling over along with the market for sure.

If there is a worsening of the situation the default, which we may look back upon as the one that broke the camel’s back, is that of Pimco’s $1.7 billion worth of mortgage notes tied to buildings owned by Pimco’s Columbia Property Trust in Los Angeles, Boston, New York and Jersey City, New Jersey.

Together, Pimco and Brookfield have defaulted on nearly $2.5 billion. But there seem to be more on the way, as The Real Deal.com website recently reported the Chetrit Group just defaulted on an $85 million loan in the tony New York City Hudson Yards property. If things don’t improve soon, and margin calls escalate, we could see a complete reversal of the recent rally in stocks.

Just in case, I’ve just added some new select hedges to my model portfolios. You can check them out here with a free trial to my service.

Bond Yields Test Crucial Resistance Levels as Liquidity Woes Continue. REITs are Heading Lower.

As I noted, above the commercial real estate market is facing serious headwinds. Moreover, if things don’t improve fairly quickly, the problems could spread to other areas of the market.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Ten Year note yield (TNX) has stubbornly remained above 3.8% and seems to be mounting an attack on the 4% area. This may be in response to selling by investors, who are having trouble making payments due to an increasingly restrictive Federal Reserve. A move above 4% would be a major negative for stocks, which could trigger very aggressive selling.

The rise in treasury bond yields has spawned a major reversal in mortgage rates, which is likely to dampen or at least slow the potential bottoming of the residential real estate market.

The homebuilder sector (SPHB) has been fairly steady in comparison to other areas of the stock market, but a move above 4% on TNX could send mortgage rates to levels near or above 7%. If that happens, it is likely to kill the housing market. Already, the homebuilder sector (SPHB) is threatening to break below its 50-day moving average.

Even more dire is the situation in commercial real estate, where the Dow Jones Real Estate Index (DJR) has just broken below its 50- and 200-day moving averages and could be headed significantly lower if there is no improvement in the market’s liquidity. Note the close inverse relationship between TNX and DJR and how they both reflect on the S&P 500 (SPX).

For a detailed explanation of how to manage your portfolio during a liquidity crisis, watch this Your Daily Five video.

Test of Key Market Support is Unfolding

The New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) broke below support at its 20-day moving average last week and is now on its way to a test of its 50-day moving average.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) easily sliced through the 4000 area and is now actively testing the key support band of 3950 and the 200-day moving average.

The Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) broke below the 12,200 and is now testing the support of the 200-day moving average.

For its part, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is still lagging the current bearish trend due to a larger focus by option traders on contracts which expire in short periods of time, while VIX measures the volatility of longer-term options. Still, VIX is showing signs that it wants to turn up in a hurry.

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures, raising the odds of higher stock prices.

Liquidity tried to stabilize on 2/25/23, but the Eurodollar Index (XED) still closed below 95, which had been a reliable support level. Note the market’s most recent rally, off of the October bottom, has corresponded to this flattening out in liquidity. Note how the continuous decline in XED corresponded to the bear trend in 2022 and how the current liquidity reduction has impacted the market negatively.

You can learn more about how to gauge the market’s liquidity in this Your Daily Five video.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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Stocks

Let The Charts Do The Talking

We are provided constant reminders that important company information is reflected in the absolute and relative performance of the company’s stock price. That may go against common sense in a few instances, especially when it comes to earnings. After all, the company is supposed to be delivering fresh new information for the stock market to digest. How could it already be priced in? Well, let’s simply call it Wall Street intuition. Of course, it’s much more than intuition. Wall Street firms have the ability to discuss key company metrics with management all the way through the end of the company’s fiscal quarter end. It doesn’t mean that company management is telling the absolute truth at all times. Occasionally, humans will “spin” information a bit, and we’ll see big market surprises when earnings are released. But at least in theory, Wall Street should already have a decent idea of what’s going to be announced when quarterly results are revealed. That’s why we organize companies with upcoming earnings reports into ChartLists that we share with our EarningsBeats.com community members. We streamline the process to help folks prepare for major upcoming earnings news.

Last week, we saw several more reminders why evaluating relative strength is so important leading up to earnings announcements. The best way to make better earnings-related decisions with stocks that you own is to constantly practice and review tendencies based on what the charts are saying. If a company is showing excellent relative strength vs. its industry peers and/or the benchmark S&P 500, there’s a decent chance that Wall Street is showing its confidence in the company before the actual earnings are released. If that’s the case, we should expect excellent results.

Let’s look at a few examples. First, let’s check out two companies that delivered excellent results last week:

Remitly Global (RELY)

One week ago, I wrote an article right here in my Trading Places blog, “This Industry Group Loves The Next 3 Months”, which focused on the specialty finance group ($DJUSSP). Remitly Global (RELY) is a specialty finance company that was trending higher relative to its peers and the S&P 500. When earnings were released, we found out why. RELY posted revenues and earnings per share (EPS) that both easily surpassed consensus estimates. Specialty finance had bottomed vs. the S&P 500 back in October, was trending higher, and moving into a strong seasonal period. RELY was showing leadership throughout this period. The chart was telling us to expect strong results:

The hard part about earnings reactions is that the market reaction doesn’t always equate to the actual report. In other words, it’s quite possible that a company reports stellar quarter results, raises guidance, and still drops. Personally, I view those types of short-term drops as trading opportunities.

Transmedics Group, Inc. (TMDX)

Talk about leadership! TMDX has been crushing its medical supplies peers ($DJUSMS), which is awesome considering that the DJUSMS has been solid relative to the S&P 500. This is the epitome of a leading stock in a leading industry group. Take one look at this chart heading into its earnings report – it should speak volumes:

Once again, TMDX is a company that delivered quarterly results way ahead of consensus estimates. Actual revenues came in roughly 30% above estimates. Few companies beat revenue estimates by such a wide margin. As a former practicing CPA that has actually performed company valuations, I can tell you that rapidly-accelerating revenues and earnings have the biggest impact on valuations, much more so than interest rates or other outside influences. Look for future quarterly estimates to be raised on TMDX and further stock appreciation.

Not everything is rosy heading into an earnings report, though. We do see plenty of instances where Wall Street shows its disdain for a company. Here are two companies that reported earnings last week and certainly fit the bill:

Unity Software, Inc. (U)

Software stocks ($DJUSSW) had been rallying hard in 2023, lifting most stocks in this space. Count Unity Software (U) as one of those. U showed no leadership whatsoever, mind you, but it still rallied simply because of the rising software tide. This is a great case of a rising absolute price, but a falling relative price. Check this out:

The equal highs on U in early December and mid-February (red arrows) are quite telling. In the bottom panel, you can see that the relative strength of software is accelerating. So while the move higher in U shares during January and February might have felt really bullish, its relative strength vs. its peers was deteriorating even further. Therefore, we shouldn’t have been surprised to see mixed earnings results. Quarterly revenues did beat expectations, but EPS came in flat, while Wall Street was expecting a small profit. It’s difficult to say which way U goes from here, because it is already beaten down, but a test of that early January low should not be ruled out.

Vicor Corp (VICR)

Ugly. That’s the best word I can come up with after looking at this chart. You have to realize that Vicor Corp’s (VICR) industry group is electrical components & equipment ($DJUSEC), which has been one of the best industry groups relative to the S&P 500 over the past year. So VICR resides in one of the sweet spots of the stock market. And still it’s produced little that Wall Street likes. Relative strength appeared to be on the mend during the January market rally. However, February happened and VICR’s relative improvement vanished right up to its quarterly report on Thursday afternoon. EPS came in 21% shy of estimates and Wall Street was not in a forgiving mood:

Sometimes, it’s difficult to think bad thoughts about the stocks we own, but we do need to try to remain objective. Holding a stock into its earnings report and “hoping” that Wall Street got it wrong is probably not going to work out long-term – or even short-term, for that matter.

Listen to what the charts are saying.

Tomorrow morning, I’ll be providing the one stock that I would not hold into its earnings next week simply to minimize risk. If you’d like to receive it, you can CLICK HERE and provide your name and email address to subscribe to our free EB Digest. There’s no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

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Stocks

Oil, Energy, and Related Stocks of Interest

After the CORE PCE numbers came out on Friday, the market had the expected reaction of selling off in anticipation of a more aggressive Fed.

We find the reaction less than surprising. But what we do find more surprising is that the metals sank along with equities, although gold fell less than 1% while silver fell over 2.5% and the S&P 500 fell just over 1%. Oil, on the other hand, and the oil sectors (exploration and service) all rose. 

Last week I wrote about natural gas (UNG) and how that had a textbook blow-off bottom at $7.40 a share. Natural gas closed the week up over 20% from that price.

The energy sector, like all commodities, cycles within a cycle.

Speaking of cycles, the indices only rallied into the 23-month moving average or 2-year business cycle resistance (point where they are guilty until proven innocent as far as a soft landing) before last week’s painful retreat. Natural gas was left for dead, as it too broke well below its 2-year business cycle. And, to date, we do not really know if this rally is like the indices–a bear market rally or the beginning of a more sustained up cycle.

What we do know is that OIH, XLE and the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) all closed green on Friday, and basically unchanged for the week. Furthermore, all are ABOVE their 23-month moving average or 2-year business cycle.

Will energy continue to go up? And what does that mean for the market?

The Oil Service (OIH) chart, although the price sits under the 50-DMA, is still in a stronger phase than the USO chart.

OIH shows the 50-DMA above the 200-DMA. The USO charts shows the 50-DMA under the 200-DMA. OIH is in a warning phase while USO is in a bearish phase. (Check out our website for more on phases or pick up a copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth.) However, OIH underperforms the benchmark according to our Stockcharts Plug in Triple Play indicator. And USO is now outperforming the benchmark.

Our Real Motion Indicator, also a StockCharts plugin, indicates a momentum diversion in USO, as the momentum recaptures its 50-DMA before the price does. Generally, when we see both a divergence in momentum and in triple play with an outperformance, we wait for a price confirmation. In USO, a move over 68.00 confirmed, would be a signal to buy.

Most likely, OIH, already in better shape, will move up as well.

The bigger point is that with natural gas potentially bottoming, oil potentially ready to go higher, and the oil services sector already in good shape, this is the place to watch this coming week. And, most importantly, we see commodities taking turns in leadership. That tells us the super cycle is getting ready and that commodities offer great active trading opportunities.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

In her latest video for CMC Markets, MarketGauge’s Mish Schneider shares insights on the gold, the S&P 500 and natural gas and what traders can expect as the markets remain mixed.

Mish and Charles talk food inflation and the Metaverse on Making Money with Charles Payne!

See Mish present “Best Trade, Worst Trade, Next Trade” on Business First AM.

Mish shares insights on the US Dollar, euro, gold and natural gas in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish shares three charts she is using to measure inflation using the commodities markets on the Wednesday, February 14 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar with David Keller!

Mish gives you some ideas of what might outperform in this new wave of inflation on the Friday, February 10 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five. She has picks from energy, construction, gold, defense, and raw materials.

Read about Mish’s interview with Neils Christensen in this article from Kitco!

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 390 support with 405 closest resistance.Russell 2000 (IWM): MA support around 184. 190 has to clear.Dow (DIA): 326 support, 335 resistance.Nasdaq (QQQ): 300 the pivotal area 290 major support284 big support 300 resistance.Regional banks (KRE): 65.00 resistance, 61 support.Semiconductors (SMH): 228 support 240 pivotal 248 key resistance 248 resistance 237 then 229 support.Transportation (IYT): Most interesting economic sector-Confirms back to a Bullish phase keeping bears on their toes and bulls hopeful.Biotechnology (IBB): 125-130 new range.Retail (XRT): 66-68 huge area to hold if the market still has legs.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

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Business

With food stamp cuts just days away, millions brace for higher grocery expenses

When pandemic aid that has boosted food-stamp benefits gets cut next week, millions of low-income Americans will confront smaller balances in the accounts they use to pay for groceries, leaving food banks bracing for a spike in demand.

As of March 1, the emergency allotment for individuals and households enrolled in the federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, will end in 32 states, the District of Columbia, Guam and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

That means recipient households will see their monthly grocery allocations reduced by at least $95, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a left-leaning research and policy think tank. In daily terms, that equates to trimming the roughly $9 per-person average to about $6.10. And the change comes when food prices in January were had increased 10% over the same month last year.

Charles Jones, a 63-year-old U.S. military veteran based in Rockford, Illinois, received an enhanced monthly SNAP benefit of $281 under the temporary program. After it ends next week, his payments will plummet to $23 — the minimum monthly amount.

“When they cut this extra benefit from SNAP, that’s going to put me in a serious problem,” he said.

Jones said his pandemic-era SNAP payments helped him move out of a homeless shelter and into a $650-a-month studio apartment earlier this month. He said he’s concerned that when his allotment is slashed — likely because he also receives Social Security disability insurance payments — his rent and utilities will consume all of his income, jeopardizing his new shot at stability.

“It helped me out a lot,” said Jones, who also relies on boxed pantry deliveries but said he often can’t eat much of their contents because of a heart condition. “You know how the government is. They want to keep the rich, rich and the poor, poor.”

Stacy Dean, deputy under secretary for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, which administers the SNAP program, acknowledged that the emergency benefits had proved “powerful” for recipients.

“That can’t be underscored enough in the difference it’s made in mitigating increases in hunger and addressing economic hardship and poverty,” Dean said. She added that while the program’s expiration “will be very difficult,” the extra aid it delivered “was always designed to be temporary.”

More than 42.3 million people participated in SNAP as of October, the latest period for which federal data was available. Participation hadn’t previously surpassed that level since the summer of 2020. The program’s total cost for fiscal 2021 was $113.68 billion, according to the Congressional Research Service. That included nine months of a 15% increase to the maximum benefit as part of the emergency allotments.

Research by the Urban Institute, a Washington-based nonpartisn think tank for economic and social policy, found that the enhanced SNAP benefits kept 4.2 million people above the poverty line in the final quarter of 2021, lowering overall poverty by 10% and child poverty by 14%. The study also found that the emergency program helped reduce poverty rates most steeply among Black and Latino recipients.

Illinois is one of 32 states that had allowed the enhanced SNAP benefits to extend to the federal March 1 deadline. But many others — including Florida, Arkansas, Georgia and Mississippi — had already chosen to end the emergency allotment, in some cases as early as 2021.

Food banks in those areas say they’ve seen sharply higher demand since SNAP benefits were reduced, and relief organizations in the remaining states are now scrambling to strategize.

“We saw what happened in the other states, where they ended so early,” said Laura Lester, chief executive of the Feeding Alabama food bank network, which serves a state where the extra aid cuts out next week.

In Georgia, which ended its enhanced benefits last May, the Atlanta Community Food Bank told NBC News earlier this month that visits had increased 34% through December. Wholesome Wave Georgia, a nonprofit that administers a program that matches SNAP dollars spent on local produce, said the total number of families it has served since the emergency allotment expired was already approaching its typical annual figures, though the group didn’t attribute its recent demand solely to SNAP changes.

“We are currently preparing ourselves for that,” Lester said.

In part to counter the emergency benefit expiration, the Community Food Bank of Central Alabama has boosted its annual budget to $10 million from $8.9 million last year, it said. The organization said it spent more than $5 million last year purchasing food to donate, up from $3.2 million in 2021.

Operations officials at the Food Bank of North Alabama said they recently ordered twice the amount of food they typically buy this time of year. The food bank also said donations that might typically require too many personnel to bag and deliver — a huge bin of sweet potatoes, for example — are now embraced. It is also planning a large mobile pantry for the first week of April, aimed to coincide with the depletion of residents’ last enhanced benefit payment.

In October, the USDA issued a 12.5% cost-of-living adjustment to the maximum SNAP benefit, but the full impact on recipients’ finances in a period of high inflation remains unclear. Another adjustment is expected in the fall. In 2021, the USDA also undertook a top-to-bottom reevaluation of Americans’ dietary needs and food costs, and increased the maximum SNAP benefits by 21%.

Still, some advocates and economists warn that many low-income Americans’ finances are in perilous shape even as the country moves beyond the pandemic. Indeed, the USDA’s estimate for the cost of a “thrifty” balanced monthly meal plan for a family of four with grade-school-age children has increased by around 50% since before the pandemic, from about $654 in January 2020 to $978 in January 2023.

“The expiration or lack of availability of this benefit really couldn’t occur at a less opportune time.”

Bankrate chief economic analyst mark hamrick

“SNAP is our most effective tool at fighting hunger,” said Dottie Rosenbaum, a senior fellow who studies the program at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. “Now that this temporary boost is coming to an end in all states, families who are already struggling to afford the rising cost of food and other expenses are going to feel a big impact.”

In a recent survey Bankrate published Thursday, 39% of U.S. adults reported having less savings than last year, and 10% who had no emergency savings last year still have none this year.

As financial buffers dwindle, the SNAP enhancements have provided a crucial, if partial, cushion for many Americans, said Mark Hamrick, chief economic analyst at Bankrate. Cutting them now “is removing a social safety net component that is going to cause some people to face food insecurity,” he said. “The expiration or lack of availability of this benefit really couldn’t occur at a less opportune time.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Sports

How to watch ‘MLS is Back’ 2023 opening weekend games

Expansion team St. Louis City SC debuts against Austin FC.While all games will stream on Apple TV, two will air on Fox.

The 2023 MLS season marks a major shift for the league’s game broadcasts. On Feb. 1, Apple and MLS launched MLS Season Pass, a subscription service that will air every game with no blackouts.

This means that live broadcasts and replays of every match — regular season, playoffs and the new Leagues Cup — will be available all in one place. In addition, the majority of games during the 2023 season will be played on Saturdays (with 7:30 p.m. local start times, in most cases), and select Wednesdays.

FOX Sports will air 34 games on linear TV during the 2023 MLS season. Those games also will be available on MLS Season Pass.

What are this week’s ‘MLS is Back’ games?

Here are the fixtures for the opening weekend of the 2023 MLS season (note: all matches during the ‘MLS is Back’ opening weekend will be available to watch for free on the Apple TV app):

Saturday, Feb. 25

► Nashville SC vs. New York City FC, 4:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV, FOX)

► Atlanta United vs. San Jose Earthquakes, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Charlotte FC vs. New England Revolution, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► FC Cincinnati vs. Houston Dynamo, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► DC United vs. Toronto FC, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Inter Miami CF vs. CF Montréal, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Orlando City vs. New York Red Bulls, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Philadelphia Union vs. Columbus Crew, 7:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC, 8:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► FC Dallas vs. Minnesota United, 8:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► POSTPONED: Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC (at the Rose Bowl), 9:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

► Vancouver Whitecaps vs. Real Salt Lake, 10:30 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

Sunday, Feb. 26

► Seattle Sounders vs. Colorado Rapids, 8 p.m. ET (Apple TV, FS1)

Monday, Feb. 27

► Portland Timbers vs. Sporting Kansas City, 10 p.m. ET (Apple TV)

How long is the 2023 MLS season?

Kicking off a 34-game slate on Feb. 25, the 2023 MLS regular season runs until ‘Decision Day’ on Oct. 21.

The league’s playoffs — which features a new format for 2023 — will open with single-elimination wild-card matches on Oct. 25-26. The 2023 season culminates with the league’s championship game, MLS Cup, on Dec. 9.

How many MLS teams are there in 2023?

With expansion team St. Louis City SC joining the league, this season will feature 29 teams. St. Louis City SC will play in the 14-team Western Conference. Nashville SC, which competed in the Western Conference last season, moves to the 15-team Eastern Conference. 

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Sports

‘This is going to be fun’: Machado commits first pitch clock violation

PEORIA, Ariz. — San Diego Padres All-Star third baseman Manny Machado became the first major league player in history Friday to have a strike called on him before he stepped into the batter’s box.

Padres reliever Ryan Weathers had an electronic device on his belt continually shouting out the complete opposite pitch he was throwing.

And what used to be routine double plays with infields shifts morphed into hits before the stunned crowd.

Oh, what a gorgeous day, with the Seattle Mariners and Padres showing the world just what baseball will look like in this new era of rule changes.

Major League Baseball executives, ranging from everyone to vice presidents Morgan Sword and Michael Hill to Hall of Fame manager Joe Torre to future Hall of Fame executive Theo Epstein, were absolutely ecstatic watching what unfolded before their eyes.

“It was a great, great day,’’ said Sword said. “We saw the game fans want.’’

MLB OFFSEASON GRADES: How did you team fare this winter?

PUJOLS: ‘I don’t miss a freakin’ thing’ superstar says of retirement

The tale of the tape in the Mariners’ 3-2 victory over the Padres:

18 hits25 baserunners.5 runs.One stolen base.Time of game: 2:29.

It may have been the first spring-training game in modern history where the sellout crowd of 9,887 at the Peoria Sports Complex stayed until the finish, double-checking their watches trying to fathom how the game ended so quickly.

There was not a single pitcher who left the dirt during the game.

No hitter stepped out and adjusted his batters’ gloves.

There was not a single note of walk-up music.

And, when it was all over, there really were no complaints.

Certainly, Machado doesn’t plan to make a habit of having a called strike on him every game before he steps to the plate, but, hey, at least he knows his usual routine will have to be modified.

Machado was just getting into the box, tapping home-plate umpire Ryan Blakney’s shin guard out of respect, when Blakney said: “Hurry, Manny.’’

“I thought I had enough time, I was doing my thing, and he says, “You got two seconds left,’’’ Machado said. “I looked up, Damn, it goes by fast.’’

And just like that, Blakney threw up his hand: Strike 1.

“I’m going in the Hall of Fame I guess …’’ Machado said. ‘We’re in the record books at least. That’s a good one.’’

Hall of Fame president Josh Rawitch indeed was on hand, collecting the first official scorecard from the historic game, but sorry, there was no request for Machado’s bat or cleats.

At least not yet.

“This,’’ Machado says, “is going to be fun.’’

The new rules stipulate that pitchers must deliver the pitch within 15 seconds, and hitters must be in the box and engaged with the pitcher within eight seconds.

If the pitcher takes too long, Ball 1.

If the hitter takes too long, Strike 1.

“I think the biggest impact will be stepping into that box,’’ Machado says, “you like to hear your walk-up song. Some people like to draw things in the ground.

“The little things that have been around for a long time, kind of go out the door. There are a lot of things we do that you can’t do anymore.’’

Sorry, there will be no more time for dilly-dallying. Get on the mound. Get in the batter’s box. And let’s get it on.

“It was fun, fast,’’ said Padres starter Nick Martinez, who will pitch for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. “I definitely felt it. There are times when I try to slow things down, and I didn’t really get that opportunity, so it will be a little tricky.

“But there were times where I thought the hitter was rushed too. I could sense that he was hurrying up there to step in there.

“There’s definitely going to be an adjustment period.’’

Now that time is of the essence, pitchers heavily relied on the electronic PitchCom device, with pitchers and catchers calling pitches almost immediately after the previous pitch.

“I feel like it’s pretty useless to use fingers nowadays,’’ said Mariners starter Robbie Ray, “because of the PitchCom. The second I threw a pitch, [Mariners catcher Tom] Murphy was throwing it back to me and I had the next pitch I was going to throw.

“It’s way easier, way faster, it was great.’’

Well, maybe not so much for the left-handed Weathers, whose elbow kept hitting the PitchCom device on his delivery.

“My elbow kept nicking the button every time,’’ Weathers said. “Every time my elbow would hit it, it would say some random pitch: “Screwball. Curveball. Cutter. We started laughing.

“I threw about 35 pitches, and must have hit it on about 30 pitches. It was so annoying.’’

Next time out, yep, the PitchCom will be on a different spot on his belt.

Players have a month to make adjustments before opening day, but if Friday provided a snapshot of what is ahead, the changes could have all of the desired effects.

It took one ground ball from Padres outfielder Juan Soto in the first inning to the right of second baseman Kolten Wong to remind everyone what the game used to look like before all of the shifts.

Instead of a routine double-play ball with the usual shift on Soto, it was a single, with Wong being the only player who had a chance to snare it.

“It’s going to be a lot of offense for sure,’’ Machado says, “not being able to shift. Those infielders have to have two feet in the dirt, so that’s going to be tough for those middle infielders. The lefties are going to love it.

“It’s going to be cool to see more offense, more first to third, more runs, and you’re going to see some pretty good defense.’’

Wong, 32, a two-time Gold Glove winner, says he embraces the change of having only two infielders on each side of the bag, just like the game was originally designed.

“I’m excited about the not shifting part,’’ Wong says. “Sometimes, you get too many guys on one side, it gets a little crowded. You’re not able to do your thing and just go get it.’’

Mariners manager Scott Servais and Padres manager Bob Melvin loved the pace of the game, particularly in the early innings, with MLB executives praising the work of the umpires.

“It was clear that the umpires and the players are ready to go,’’ Sword says. “That was a big credit to them. We are going to hit the ground running in spring training if the other games go like this one.’’

Really, there was only one question that each team wanted to know when the game was over.

What happens to the walk-up songs?

“Are they gone forever?’’ Servais asked.

Nope, Sword says, they’ll still be played in ballparks during the season, but only for 10 seconds.

The song will start with 30 seconds on the clock and end with 20 seconds on the clock.

“By the time they put your music on,’’ Machado says, “I don’t think there will ever be [time for] any music. People like to at least start it. …

“Who knows where this leads?’’

Machado broke into a slow, expansive grin, contemplating all of the new changes, and said:

“It’s going to be interesting year, for sure.’’

Follow Nightengale on Twitter: @Bnightengale

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Former NFL WR released from federal prison after serving 10 years

Former NFL receiver Sam Hurd was released from federal prison after serving time for drug trafficking charges.

Hurd received a 15-year sentence in 2013. According to the San Antonio Express-News, Hurd was scheduled to be released May 30. He was released early and has received community confinement in the San Antonio area.

In 2011, Hurd was arrested outside a Chicago steakhouse attempting to purchase cocaine. According to a federal complaint, Hurd told undercover agents that he wanted to distribute 5 to 10 kilograms of cocaine and 1,000 pounds of marijuana per week in the Chicago area.

Federal agents moved in during the drug sting and took Hurd into custody. Hurd plead guilty to the charges and served 10 years of his sentence at the Bastrop penitentiary in Texas.

U.S. District Judge Jorge Solis presented the 15-year sentence. It was shorter than the recommended federal sentencing of 27 to 34 years.

‘You had everything going for you,’ Solis told Hurd during the court proceedings. He added that he thought the case was a ‘tragedy.’

Hurd played for the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears in his NFL career. He recorded 53 catches, 739 yards and two touchdowns in six NFL seasons.

The Bears cut Hurd during the 2011 season after he signed a three-year deal worth $5 million. He went undrafted after the 2006 NFL Draft and got his start with the Cowboys.

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Kings outlast Clippers in NBA’s second-highest scoring game ever

The Sacramento Kings and the Clippers are both in the thick of the race in the Western Conference and when they met up Friday night in Los Angeles, no one quite envisioned such a high-scoring affair.

The result was a 176-175 in double overtime victory for Sacramento, who are third in the Western Conference standings. The 351-point total was the second-highest in NBA history.

Malik Monk scored a career-high 45 points, De’Aaron Fox had 42 points, 12 assists and five steals, while Kawhi Leonard scored 44 in a losing effort for Los Angeles. 

The Kings came back after trailing by 14 points in the fourth quarter and overcame six-point deficits in both overtimes. 

What is the NBA record for combined points?

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The Detroit Pistons beat the Denver Nuggets 186-184 in triple overtime on Dec. 13, 1983, combining for a record 370 points.

Ole’ defense

Friday’s game was the first in Kings history when two teammates scored 40 or more points. It has only happened one other time this season when Caris LeVert and Donovan Mitchell of the Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off the feat against Boston.

There were 44 3-point makes in Friday’s game on 86 attempts. In the 1983 game, there were only four attempts, with two makes. Nuggets reserve Richard Anderson made one 3-pointer, and Hall of Famer Isiah Thomas made the other and finished with 47 points. Kiki Vandeweghe led the Nuggets with 51.

In what amounted to a lay-up line for Friday’s game, the Kings shot 59% while the Clippers hit 60% of their shots.

It was tied at 40 after the first quarter and Los Angeles led 80-76 at halftime. The score was tied at 153 after regulation and 164 after the first overtime. 

Russell Westbrook’s Clippers debut

Nine-time All-Star made his Clippers debut Friday after being traded to the Utah Jazz from the Los Angeles Lakers. The Jazz bought out his contract, allowing Westbrook to join the Clippers. 

Westbrook played 39 minutes, scoring 17 points with 14 assists. 

They said it

“From a fan’s standpoint, I can see how this game would have been a lot of fun to watch,” Kings head coach Mike Brown said. “There was unbelievable shot making and great defense. There was high-level talent that was on display. Kudos to the players.’

“We just had to grind this game out. We were on the second night of a back-to-back but it is what it is. We have a younger team than them,” Fox said.

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Former NFL player is making millions selling Pokémon cards

The NFL is a billion-dollar industry. But for some players, it’s not worth pursuing a long career.

Veteran linebacker Blake Martinez retired from the NFL in November at the age of 28, a month after signing with the Las Vegas Raiders. He dedicated himself full-time to his new business: trading Pokémon cards.

He founded Blake’s Breaks in July after picking up the enterprise as a hobby when he tore his ACL in 2021. Since then, he has made $5 million, according to CNBC Make It.

For Martinez, the trade-off has been more than worth it.

“Every single day when I wake up, my shoulder doesn’t hurt and my back doesn’t hurt anymore,” he said. “When all that hurts are my fingers from opening, like, 1,000 packs of cards per day, I think, ‘I’m going to keep doing this.’”

The Arizona native had his fair share of success on the field, tying for the NFL lead in tackles in 2017 with the Green Bay Packers. A fourth-round pick out of Stanford in 2016, Martinez spent four years in Green Bay before joining the Giants prior to the 2020 season. Martinez tore his ACL in 2021 and missed most of the year.

Martinez first bought Pokémon cards as a child and kept his collection in a binder and his mom eventually got rid of his stash. After seeing the resurgence of their popularity in the 2020s, he started buying cards again, but now at a premium price.

He uses the online marketplace Whatnot to sell the cards and also do livestreams where he opens the packs that he purchases. The resell prices vary, but an extremely rare Illustrator Pikachu (1 of 4 ever made) went for $672,000 in October.

Despite the surprising decision to leave the NFL in his 20s, Martinez said he still uses skills that made him successful on the field.

“I used to be like the quarterback of the defense, I was calling plays.’ he said. ‘When I started this business, it felt like running a team again.”

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Iowa pulls off furious comeback to beat Michigan State in OT

IOWA CITY — In the closing seconds on Saturday afternoon against Michigan State, Iowa men’s basketball’s 3-point shooting came alive.. a welcome sight compared to its previous two outings. After a 6-52 stretch, the biggest question looming over Saturday’s contest was obvious: Could Iowa break its recent shooting slump?

The answer was yes and the catalyst was Payton Sandfort. His six 3-pointers sparked an improbable Hawkeye comeback which ended in a 112-106 win over Michigan State. For the game, Iowa shot 47% (17-36) from long range.

The Hawkeyes put forth a furious comeback attempt in the final 30 seconds. 3-pointers by Murray, Connor McCaffery and Patrick McCaffery brought Iowa within four points or less on three separate occasions. Finally, after Michigan State missed its first free throw of the half, Sandfort connected on his six 3-pointer of the day, with three seconds left to tie the game and send it to overtime.

Five Hawkeys finished in double-figures: Filip Rebraca (18), Kris Murray (26), Payton Sandfort (22) and Tony Perkins (24) and Connor McCaffery (10). Michigan State’s 63% shooting form the field was nearly too much to overcome but Iowa showed enough resiliency down the stretch.

With the win, Iowa improves to 18-11 overall, 10-8 in Big Ten play and delivers a much-needed bounce back win.

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Hawkeye fans anxiously waited on Saturday to see if their presence would inspire better perimeter shooting. After two bad misses, forward Connor McCaffery connected on a 3-pointer at the 14:47 mark to give Iowa a 15-12 advantage. However, three consecutive misses followed and temporarily, the shooting woes continued.

In place of 3-pointers, Iowa relied on forward Filip for a steady source of offense. The fifth-year senior opened the game on a 5-5 start from the field (all within the first 10 minutes of play) and paced Iowa to a five-point lead midway to halftime. Then finally, the Hawkeyes found a source of consistent shooting from sophomore Payton Sandfort.

Sandfort’s three 3-pointers accounted for half of Iowa’s total in the first. Iowa’s 38% from long range was a welcomed sight (usually a 36% shooting team at home) but it was overshadowed by the blistering shooting by the Spartans, who shot 75% in the first half.

Michigan State’s efficiency from the floor (63% from the field in the first half) was matched by timely scoring that didn’t allow Iowa to seize momentum. A Sandfort 3-pointer at the 7:29 mark put Iowa up by five points, Michigan State’s Joey Hauser answered with a three of his own on the next possession. Ahron Ulis’ 3-pointer at the 1:59 mark gave Iowa a four-point lead that was immediately cut to one on the Spartans next possession. A pair of Rebraca free throws gave Iowa a 42-39 lead with a minute left to halftime, a Michigan State 3-pointer with six seconds left sent teams to the break tied.

Michigan State’s hot shooting continued in the opening minutes of the second half. The Spartans opened the half with a 6-8 start from the field and took a 58-52 lead with about 15 minutes to play.

Iowa’s offense was more sound in the second period, led by Tony Perkins who scored a trio of 3-pointers early to keep pace with Michigan State’s shooting, but another game with poor team defensive rotations produced open looks for the opposing team.

But ultimately, Iowa’s clutch shooting outlasted the Spartans. All it took was one Michigan State missed free throw or Iowa to take advantage and force overtime. And in the overtime period, the Hawkeyes controlled the game offensively with a 9-3 advantage and a game-high six points form Perkins.

Iowa’s back-to-back losses caused unrest within the fan base as the regular season reached an end but Saturday’s win solidified the Hawkeyes as an NCAA Tournament team. Road struggles and defensive breakdowns are still valid concerns, but Iowa’s ability to stay in games should not be shortchanged.

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