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Islanders acquire defenseman to boost banged-up blue line

The NHL trade deadline is March 8 and already a few moves and other transactions are trickling in.

The latest was a trade between the St. Louis Blues and New York Islanders.

General managers will be guided by another year of a tight salary cap, but it’s expected to rise next season to $87.7 million. Last summer, a lot of players signed low-cost, one-year deals, increasing the pool of potential unrestricted free agents who could be moved out for draft picks or prospects.

Follow along this season for news and analysis on deals, major transactions and other announcements that have happened in the months leading up the trade deadline:

WINNERS AND LOSERS: First quarter of NHL season has dizzying turns

Dec. 8: New York Islanders acquire St. Louis Blues’ Robert Bortuzzo

The New York Islanders acquired defenseman Robert Bortuzzo from the St. Louis Blues on Friday in exchange for a seventh-round pick. The trade was announced after the team said Ryan Pulock (lower body) was going on the injured list, joining fellow defensemen Adam Pelech and Sebastian Aho. Bortuzzo, 34, won a Stanley Cup with the Blues in 2019 but has been limited to four games this season and often was a healthy scratch. He’ll be an unrestricted free agent this summer.

Dec. 7: Nashville Predators’ Tyson Barrie discusses trade request

Nashville Predators defenseman Tyson Barrie knew he was about to be uncomfortable with the questions that were going to come his way Thursday, ones about him requesting a trade after being a healthy scratch last weekend. About the Predators granting him permission to talk with other teams.

‘I’m trying not to really air it out in the media,’ Barrie said.

As much as he might have wanted to, Barrie didn’t exactly bury any hatchets, either.

‘Well, if we’re getting into it, I’m in the stands so it doesn’t really feel like a great fit,’ he said. ‘My goal is to be playing hockey. Whether that’s here or elsewhere is up for the powers that be to decide.’ – Paul Skrbina, The Tennessean

Dec. 6: Detroit Red Wings announce when Patrick Kane is expected to make debut

Star Patrick Kane is scheduled to make his Detroit Red Wings debut on Thursday at home against the San Jose Sharks, coach Derek Lalonde told reporters. Kane was signed last week to a one-year, $2.75 million contract after offseason hip resurfacing surgery. Lalonde plans to play him with former Chicago Blackhawks teammate Alex DeBrincat and will try the pair with different centers. Kane’s minutes will be monitored. ‘There’s a lot of unknowns still there so we’ll all be patient with it and kind of let it play out a little bit,’ Lalonde said.

Also: The Buffalo Sabres acquired winger Eric Robinson from the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for a conditional seventh-round pick in 2025. The fourth-liner has 82 points in 266 career games, including one goal in seven games this season. The Blue Jackets later placed defenseman Adam Boqvist, goalie Elvis Merzlikins and forward Cole Sillinger on the injured list. Boqvist (shoulder) is expected to miss four weeks. … The Toronto Maple Leafs announced defenseman John Klingberg will have season-ending hip surgery. He signed a one-year, $4.15 million deal in the offseason but hasn’t played since Nov. 11. The Maple Leafs, also missing defensemen Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren, are looking for a replacement through a trade. ‘It’s no secret we’ve investigated what the market is, what those costs could be,’ general manager Brad Trevling told reporters. … Jacques Martin, who has been a head coach for nearly 1,300 NHL games (692 with Ottawa), was named an advisor to the Senators’ coaching staff.

Dec. 4: Winnipeg Jets sign Nino Niederreiter to three-year extension

He’ll average $4 million in the contract that kicks in next season. He is the third player signed long-term since the Jets moved out Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler during the summer, following Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck. Niederreiter, 31, is tied for fourth on the Jets with six goals and is sixth with 14 points.

Dec. 1: Simon Nemec called up amid New Jersey Devils’ issues on defense

Simon Nemec, the No. 2 pick of the 2022 NHL draft, made his NHL debut after being called up amid the team’s major absences on defense. He played 22:38, had two assists and three shots, and was a minus 2 in the 6-3 loss to the San Jose Sharks. Before the game, the Devils announced that top defenseman Dougie Hamilton is out indefinitely after having surgery on his left pectoral muscle. Also, defenseman Brendan Smith was suspended for two games for slashing Philadelphia Flyers forward Travis Konecny. He will forfeit $11,458.34 in pay and Konecny was fined $5,000 for his cross-check on Smith. The Devils also announced that forward Tomas Nosek had surgery on his right foot.

Also: The Montreal Canadiens and goalie Sam Montembeault agreed to a three-year, $9.45 million extension. The Quebec native had been claimed off waivers from the Florida Panthers in 2021

Nov. 30: Vancouver Canucks acquire defenseman Nikita Zadorov

The Vancouver Canucks got stronger on defense by adding rugged 6-foot-6, 248-pound defenseman Nikita Zadorov from the Calgary Flames. The Canucks gave up the fifth-round pick they acquired a day earlier in the Anthony Beauvillier trade, plus a 2026 third-round pick. Calgary’s return doesn’t seem high for a player who led the Flames in hits and is going to a division rival, but Zadorov had requested a trade and is a pending unrestricted free agent. The Flames, who have pushed closer to a playoff position after a tough start, also have forward Elias Lindholm and defensemen Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev in the final years of their contracts.

Nov. 28: Chicago Blackhawks waive Corey Perry, trade for Anthony Beauvillier

The Chicago Blackhawks placed Corey Perry on unconditional waivers on Tuesday in order to terminate his contract. The team said it determined that Perry ‘engaged in conduct that is unacceptable, and in violation of both the terms of his Standard Player’s Contract and the Blackhawks’ internal policies intended to promote professional and safe work environments.’ The Beauvillier trade happened later. The Vancouver Canucks, who acquired Beauvillier last season in the Bo Horvat trade, will receive a fifth-round draft pick. More important for Vancouver, the Blackhawks take on his entire $4.15 million cap hit, giving them flexibility before the trade deadline. Beauvillier, a winger like Perry, has two goals and six assists in 22 games this season.

Perry issued an apology Thursday for his ‘inappropriate and wrong’ behavior.

BLACKHAWKS: More details on why Chicago is cutting ties with Corey Perry

Nov. 28: Detroit Red Wings sign Patrick Kane

The one-year, $2.75 million deal will reunite Patrick Kane with Detroit’s Alex DeBrincat, his former linemate on the Chicago Blackhawks. DeBrincat had two 40-goal seasons while in Chicago. The question is how Kane will perform after hip resurfacing surgery during the offseason.  Though recent videos showed Kane going through intense workouts, Capitals star Nicklas Backstrom is taking a leave of absence to determine his future after having the same surgery during the 2022 offseason. Considering Kane wanted to play for a contender, that says something about his faith in the Red Wings’ direction after they try to end a seven-year playoff drought. Daniel Sprong is giving up his No. 88 for Kane and will wear No. 17 instead.

Also: The Buffalo Sabres loaned rookie goalie Devon Levi to Rochester (New York) of the American Hockey League. He had been in a three-goalie system with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie and his numbers were down from the strong start he had last season after leaving Northeastern University. The move allows Levi to see more action than he would in the NHL. “We’re super excited about Devon, believe in him,’ general manager Kevyn Adams told reporters on Wednesday. ‘This is an opportunity for him to get in a rhythm, get sharpened up.”

Nov. 27: Minnesota Wild fire coach Dean Evason, hire John Hynes

John Hynes is back in the NHL after being hired to replace fired Minnesota Wild coach Dean Evason on Monday. The Wild made the switch after a 5-10-4 start in which the team struggled defensively and especially on the penalty kill. Hynes, who knows Wild general manager Bill Guerin from their days in the Pittsburgh Penguins organization, was a midseason replacement previously with the Nashville Predators. He was fired last summer after missing the playoffs. He also coached the New Jersey Devils and has a 284-255-63 NHL record, making the playoffs four times.

Nov. 25: Chicago Blackhawks’ Corey Perry to be away from team for foreseeable future

Corey Perry will be away from the Chicago Blackhawks for the foreseeable future, general manager Kyle Davidson said Saturday. Perry, 38, hasn’t played since a 3-2 loss to Buffalo last Sunday. He was a healthy scratch for the last two games.

“It’s been a team decision so far to hold him out, and that’s about all I’m able to provide,” Davidson said.

In a statement provided to Hockey Night in Canada, Pat Morris, Perry’s agent, said the forward stepped away from the team to attend to personal matters.

Perry was acquired from Tampa Bay in a June trade, then agreed to a one-year, $4 million contract. He has four goals and five assists in 16 games. His absence comes as the Blackhawks deal with a series of injuries among their forwards. Taylor Hall, another offseason acquisition, is scheduled for right knee surgery on Monday in Minnesota. – Associated Press

Also: The New York Islanders claimed veteran defenseman Mike Reilly off waivers from the Florida Panthers and placed defenseman Adam Pelech (upper body) on long term injured reserve.

Nov. 24: Colorado Avalanche’s Sam Girard enters mental health treatment

Colorado Avalanche defenseman Sam Girard is entering the NHL/NHL Players’ Association Player Assistance Program. He announced through his agent that his severe anxiety and depression had gone untreated too long and had led to alcohol abuse.

‘Taking care of your mental health is of the utmost importance, and I encourage everyone to speak up and seek help should you feel like you need it,’ he said in a statement.

Girard, 25, has played all but five games of his seven-year NHL career with the Avalanche and had a career-best 37 points last season. He had one goal and three assists through 15 games this season and had missed the past two games for personal reasons.

Avalanche coach Jared Bednar said the team supports Girard going to get help.

“You’ve got to take care of yourself first before you’re able to come and help a team,’ he said.

Nov. 24: Winnipeg Jets coach Rick Bowness returns from leave of absence

Winnipeg Jets coach Rick Bowness returned behind the bench Friday for the first time since he took a leave of absence on Oct. 23 after his wife Judy had a seizure. He said she’s doing as well as expected with her new medication and will stay with their children when he’s on the road. Associate coach Scott Arniel went 9-2-2 in Bowness’ absence. The Jets beat the Florida Panthers 3-0 with Bowness behind the bench.

Also: Buffalo Sabres forward Zach Benson played his 10th NHL game on Friday, meaning he’s staying in the league and not being returned to his junior hockey team. Benson scored his first NHL goal on Wednesday with a spectacular move. … The Washington Capitals said forward T.J. Oshie won’t travel with the team after a hard collision in Friday’s 5-0 loss to the Edmonton Oilers.

Nov. 23: Chicago Blackhawks’ Taylor Hall to have ACL surgery

Chicago Blackhawks winger Taylor Hall, the former No. 1 overall pick who was acquired to mentor and play alongside rookie Connor Bedard, will have ACL surgery and is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

‘It came from an accumulation of a bunch of little injuries from the game and even in practice the other day,’ coach Luke Richardson told reporters. ‘It became unstable and we need to fix it.’

SABRES: Rookie Zach Benson scores first NHL goal in spectacular fashion

Hall had been limited to 10 games (four points) this season because of injuries.

“It’s heartbreaking — someone that loved to play so much and every game is so impactful, such a good hockey player and such a good person,’ Bedard said.

The Blackhawks also placed forward Andreas Athanasiou (groin muscle) on the injured list and called up Joey Anderson and Cole Guttman.

Nov. 17: Florida Panthers activate Brandon Montour, Aaron Ekblad

The defending Eastern Conference champion Florida Panthers got off to a 10-5-1 record even with key absences. Now, they’re getting defensemen Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad back, activating them from the injured list after they recovered from offseason surgery for playoff injuries.

Montour set a franchise record for points by a defenseman (73) and was their top-scoring blueliner in the playoffs. Ekblad, like Montour a right-hand shot, was taken No. 1 overall in the 2014 draft. Defenseman Josh Mahura went on the injured list to make the salary cap situation work.

Nov. 12: Edmonton Oilers fire coach Jay Woodcroft

The Edmonton Oilers fired coach Jay Woodcroft on Sunday after a 3-9-1 start and replaced him with Kris Knoblauch, the Hartford Wolf Pack coach and Connor McDavid’s former junior hockey coach. That’s the third recent move with a connection to three-time MVP McDavid. His agent, Jeff Jackson, was hired earlier as CEO of hockey operations and the team also signed his former junior hockey linemate Connor Brown.

McDavid said Monday he was surprised by the move and said Woodcroft ‘never lost the room.’

The Oilers were a trendy pick to go far in the playoffs, but have disappointed this season. Last season’s No. 1-ranked offense is 26th this season, with McDavid possibly slowed by an injury that cost him two games. Their goaltending issues have been worse. Jack Campbell was sent to the American Hockey League in the second year of his five-year contract. Stuart Skinner, a rookie of the year finalist last season, ranks last in the league in goals saved above expected, according to MoneyPuck.

Knoblauch – and newly hired Oilers legend Paul Coffey coaching the defense – will be tasked with getting the Oilers back to a playoff spot. There’s precedent: Woodcroft went 26-9-3 down the stretch in 2021-22 as a midseason replacement and led the team to the Western Conference final. 

Also: The Colorado Avalanche announced that goalie Pavel Francouz (lower body) will miss the rest of the season. He has yet to play in 2023-24 and will return to the Czech Republic to be with his family. The team also signed forward Joel Kiviranta to a one-year deal.

Nov. 10: Pittsburgh Penguins to retire Jaromir Jagr’s number

Jaromir Jagr, drafted fifth overall in 1990, won Stanley Cup titles in his first two seasons and ranks fourth in franchise history with 1,079 points in 806 games. He played 11 seasons with Pittsburgh before being traded to the Washington Capitals. He ranks second all-time in NHL history in points and fourth in goals. His No. 68 will be retired on Feb. 18.

Nov. 8: Minnesota Wild trade Calen Addison to San Jose Sharks, acquire Zach Bogosian from Tampa Bay Lightning

Addison was sent to the San Jose Sharks for forward Adam Raska and a 2026 fifth-round draft pick. The defenseman is a power play specialist, but he is unreliable in his own zone. That led to him being a healthy scratch often down the stretch last season. With the Wild getting Jared Spurgeon back soon from injury (he was activated from long-term injured reserve on Friday), the power play opportunities will dwindle. Addison will be more valuable to the Sharks, who dealt Erik Karlsson last summer. He will be a restricted free agent at season’s end.

Bogosian lacks Addison’s offense, but the veteran takes care of his end of the ice. He’s a right-handed shot, like Addison.

“He’s a big guy,’ Minnesota general manager Bill Guerin told reporters. ‘He still skates well. He brings heaviness. He brings some grit and we need that.”

The trade buys the Lightning a little bit of salary cap breathing room. Bogosian, in the final season of a three-year contract, has a $850,000 cap hit.

Nov. 7: Edmonton Oilers place goalie Jack Campbell on waivers

Campbell, who signed a five-year, $25 million free agent deal in 2022, hasn’t played well since arriving. Stuart Skinner surpassed him last season and was a rookie of the year finalist. This season, Campbell was chased in the season opener and has gone 1-4 with a 4.50 goals-against average and .873 save percentage. He cleared waivers and will work on his game in the American Hockey League as the struggling Oilers try to get into a playoff spot. Edmonton recalled Calvin Pickard from Bakersfield (California) to back up Skinner.

Oct. 13: Colorado Avalanche sign defenseman Devon Toews to seven-year extension

He’ll average $7.25 million in the deal, which begins next season. Heading into the season, Toews led the league with a +120 plus-minus rating since he was acquired from the New York Islanders in 2020. He’s right behind defenseman Cale Makar in average ice time during that time.

Oct. 10: Carolina Hurricanes acquire forward Callahan Burke from the Colorado Avalanche for defenseman Caleb Jones

The Hurricanes loaded up on defense this offseason and Jones was the odd man out. Both players will play for the American Hockey League’s Colorado Eagles.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Cowboys coach back after emergency surgery

Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy returned to the team’s facility Friday, less than 48 hours after undergoing surgery for acute appendicitis.

McCarthy, 60, toldlocalreporters Friday afternoon that he is ‘feeling great’ in the wake of the surgery and has been cleared by doctors to get back to work. He said he is not only planning to coach the Cowboys in a pivotal game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night but to do so from his usual spot on the sidelines.

‘I anticipate everything staying normal come Sunday night,’ McCarthy toldreporters.

McCarthy believed he was suffering from a stomach virus when he started experiencing abdominal pain earlier this week. He said he saw a doctor after the pain intensified Wednesday and underwent an appendectomy later that day.

The Cowboys’ three coordinators ran practice and oversaw game prep in McCarthy’s absence.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

‘Once I was released from the hospital, I’ve been totally engaged in the game plan,’ McCarthy toldreporters.

McCarthy’s return is important news for the Cowboys, who currently sit one game back of the Eagles in both the NFC East and the race for the top seed in the conference. The Eagles slipped by Dallas 28-23 in the first meeting of the season between the two teams last month.

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The surprises and disappointments in every college football conference

Controversy aside, this is one heck of a College Football Playoff field: Michigan, Washington, Texas and Alabama.

How did we get here?

The regular season saw the just-in-time return of the Pac-12 as a national player, scandals galore involving the Wolverines alone, one of the most unpredictable races for the top four of the playoff era, Georgia’s quest for college football history and the Longhorns’ prominent return before this summer’s move to the SEC.

And that doesn’t even include the weekly mathematics involving Iowa, Brian Ferentz and the Hawkeyes’ underperforming offense.

With bowl play close on the horizon, here’s looking back at the best coaches, biggest surprise teams and most disappointing teams in every Bowl Subdivision league during the 2023 regular season:

American

Coach of the year: Rhett Lashlee, SMU

Biggest surprise: South Florida

Biggest disappointment: East Carolina

Lashlee and SMU went unbeaten in conference play and captured the AAC title over Tulane to allay any concerns over the Mustangs’ post-Sonny Dykes future and give the program a boost entering life in the ACC.

South Florida was picked ahead of only Charlotte in the preseason media poll but managed to win six games under new coach Alex Golesh. East Carolina seemed very much on the climb under coach Mike Houston but took a huge step back with just the second 10-loss season in program history.

POSTSEASON LINEUP: Complete bowl schedule for the 2023 season

ACC

Coach of the year: Jeff Brohm, Louisville

Biggest surprises: Louisville and North Carolina State

Biggest disappointment: North Carolina

It would take a magical, out-of-nowhere season for an ACC coach to draw the nod ahead of Florida State’s Mike Norvell, but that’s exactly what Brohm delivered: Louisville won 10 games and reached the ACC championship game for the first time with a slim chance at making the playoff.

That makes it easy to name the Cardinals as the league’s most pleasant surprise, but let’s not forget about N.C. State. The Wolfpack finished third in the ACC and cracked the Top 25 to reinforce the outstanding work coach Dave Doeren continues to do with almost zero national fanfare. In-state rival UNC was unbeaten at the midway point but dropped four of six in the second half, including borderline unforgivable losses to Virginia and Georgia Tech.

Big 12

Coach of the year: Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State

Biggest surprise: West Virginia

Biggest disappointment: Baylor

Gundy overcame two rough losses in September to make an unexpected appearance in the conference championship game. West Virginia started fast, hit a speed bump and than rallied to win eight games for the first time since 2018 and remove a good chunk of the pressure on coach Neal Brown.

The less said about Baylor the better, but one short note: Both of the Bears’ league wins came against newcomers Central Florida and Cincinnati, and only then by a field goal over the Bearcats and via a historic comeback against the Knights.

Big Ten

Coach of the year: David Braun, Northwestern

Biggest surprise: Northwestern

Biggest disappointment: Minnesota

If you can remember long ago, all the way back in the preseason, Northwestern was embroiled in a hazing scandal that cost longtime coach Pat Fitzgerald his job and set the baseline for wins this season at somewhere more than zero but less than, say, two. Despite the odds, the Wildcats finished second in the Big Ten West as one of just three teams in the division and seven teams in the conference to post a winning record.

On the flip side, Minnesota struggled to replace a parade of starters to graduation and finished last in the West. This was the Golden Gophers’ first losing finish in a non-COVID year since 2017, coach P.J. Fleck’s debut season.

Conference USA

Coach of the year: Jerry Kill, New Mexico State

Biggest surprise: Jacksonville State

Biggest disappointment: Florida International

Jamey Chadwell might’ve led the Liberty to the New Year’s Six in his first season with the Flames, but Jerry Kill posted New Mexico State’s first 10-win season since 1960 and just the second in program history. Enough said.

But the league’s biggest surprise might be the successful FBS debut for Jacksonville State. Despite being one of the few holdovers in the hodgepodge Conference USA lineup, FIU finished dead last in the standings and gave up at least 40 points in each of its last four games.

MAC

Coach of the year: Chuck Martin, Miami (Ohio)

Biggest surprise: Bowling Green

Biggest disappointment: Buffalo

The RedHawks won the conference title at Toledo’s expense thanks to a careful offense, underrated defense and wonderful special teams. That makes this a breakout year for Martin, who hadn’t won more than eight games in a year before going 11-2 this season.

Picked fourth in the MAC East in the preseason media poll, Bowling Green has reached back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 2014-15. Also in the East, Buffalo suffered a huge decline from 2022 and won just three games, with two coming against Akron and Kent State.

Mountain West

Coach of the year: Barry Odom, UNLV

Biggest surprise: UNLV

Biggest disappointment: San Diego State

UNLV rocketed out of the gate under new coach Barry Odom with one of the best seasons in program history. While the Rebels’ offense was one of the most improved in the Group of Five, the Aztecs’ annual offensive woes were joined by a steep drop on defense, contributing to a four-win finish and a wholesale shift in a new direction under newly hired coach Sean Lewis.

Pac-12

Coach of the year: Jedd Fisch, Arizona

Biggest surprise: Colorado

Biggest disappointment: Southern California

While Washington and Oregon dominated the conference headlines, Fisch should be a candidate for national coach of the year for his work rebuilding Arizona from the depths of his first season.

Picking USC as the biggest disappointment in the Pac-12 is easy; the Trojans were the biggest disappointment in the FBS. Naming Colorado as the biggest surprise requires looking beyond the three-win improvement to appreciate how Deion Sanders made the Buffaloes one of the biggest stories in all of sports.

SEC

Coach of the year: Nick Saban, Alabama

Biggest surprise: Missouri

Biggest disappointment: Florida

Nick Saban has national championship rings for fingers on both hands but might’ve pulled off his greatest work yet in getting this Alabama team from the depths of September to the top of the SEC and into the playoff. This puts Saban just ahead of Missouri’s Eli Drinkwitz, architect of one of the program’s rare 10-win seasons thanks to the heavy contributions of former walk-on running back Cody Schrader, a USA TODAY Sports first-team All-America pick.

You’ll need to go down the SEC East standings to find Florida, which flopped once again and has now posted back-to-back losing seasons under Billy Napier.

Sun Belt

Coach of the year: Curt Cignetti, James Madison

Biggest surprise: Texas State

Biggest disappointment: Marshall

What Cignetti and JMU achieved over the past two seasons represents the gold standard for FBS transitions. Texas State set a program FBS-era record with seven wins and could be poised to make some noise the next few seasons. Marshall still got to a bowl game but finished in a three-way tie for last in the East division, falling short of expectations.

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3 fascinating details from ESPN’s new Brittney Griner report

On the one-year anniversary of Brittney Griner’s release from Russian custody, ESPN published a lengthy, detailed story on the WNBA star’s arrest, her time in prison and the efforts to bring her home.

Griner, a nine-time all-Star with the Phoenix Mercury, spent 10 months in Russian custody after authorities found vape cartridges filled with cannabis oil in her bag at the airport nearly two years ago. Her subsequent arrest and detention made her a key figure in the complicated relationship between the U.S. and Russia, which at the time had just started its war in Ukraine.

Griner, 33, and her wife Cherelle declined to speak with ESPN but a wide range of others did, including Viktor Bout, the arms dealer who was ultimately included in the prisoner swap that secured Griner’s release.

Here are three fascinating moments and details from ESPN’s incredibly thorough report.

What was said between Griner, Bout at prisoner swap

Bout told ESPN that when he first saw Griner on the tarmac at an Abu Dhabi airport, he was a bit surprised by her appearance — namely that she had cut off her dreadlocks while imprisoned in Russia.

An unnamed U.S. official who was on the tarmac told the network that Griner saw Bout, expressed a desire to meet him and said something to the effect of, ‘Viktor, what’s up?’

‘I just wished her good luck and shook her hand,’ Bout confirmed to ESPN.

Russian authorities later released video of the swap despite agreeing not to do so, according to ESPN’s report, but the handshake was edited out of that footage.

Griner’s time in prison

One of Griner’s Russian attorneys told ESPN that the WNBA star was extremely popular with other inmates during her time in prison. ‘Everybody loved her all along the way,’ the attorney, Alexander Boykov, told the network.

Boykov also said that when Griner was moved to a women’s prison camp, she was assigned to work in a sewing shop, making uniforms for other prisoners. She also worked as part of a crew that used metal rods to break up chunks of ice on the walkways outside.

‘At one point, sources said, guards asked her if she could knock icicles down from the eaves — she was the only person tall enough to reach,’ ESPN reported.

Russian basketball player Yevgenia Belyakova told ESPN she visited her teammate in prison and brought her a can of Pringles, which Griner had ‘begged for,’ and that she was hooked on a Russian TV drama, ‘Kitchen.’

Sports figures get involved

It also includes passing mention of sports figures who played a role behind-the-scenes.

Terri Jackson, executive director of the Women’s National Basketball Players Association, identified Carmelo Anthony and Doc Rivers as among the NBA partners who were most adamant about raising awareness of Griner’s situation. Jackson also singled out Grant Williams, whom she said drove the Boston Celtics to wear ‘We are BG’ shirts before a game and spoke out about Griner when it was needed.

ESPN also reported that, as part of a broader attempt to find someone close to Russian president Vladimir Putin who could advocate for Griner’s release, her agent Lindsay Kagawa Colas contacted Dana White to see if he could connect her with Russian-born fighter Khabib Nurmagomedov. White then contacted former president Donald Trump, according to the report, and relayed to Colas that Trump was thinking about getting involved. (ESPN said White did not respond to requests for comment.)

Griner documentary in the works

ESPN’s story was published one day after the network announced it had entered into an exclusive partnership with Griner ‘to share her story through various projects,’ including a documentary feature and scripted series.

‘The last two years have been the most harrowing, transformative and illuminating period of my life, and I am grateful to be in a place now to share my story with the world,’ Brittney Griner said in a news release. ‘I’m proud to partner with ESPN and Disney to share this very personal story because of its incredible potential to inspire hope around the world and their proven ability to do just that.’

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Jaguars provide update on Trevor Lawrence’s availability vs. Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence will be listed as questionable for Sunday’s game at the Cleveland Browns, per head coach Doug Pederson.

“He’s feeling good, we’ll see. He moved around a little bit (Thursday),” Pederson said Friday. “We’ll see how he does today. Kind of base it on medical staff, how Trevor feels and if he can go or not.”

Lawrence will be a game-time decision after mending a high-ankle sprain on his right leg which he suffered in last week’s game versus the Cincinnati Bengals.

He missed Wednesday’s practice but was able to participate on Thursday and Friday on a limited basis.

“It’s always a collaborative process, you don’t want to take any further risks, especially with where we’re at in the season,” Lawrence said Wednesday. “You want to be able to play through the rest of the year and into the playoffs.”

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

He did not take part in quarterback mobility drills Thursday, but was able to move well on Friday and throw the ball seemingly without issue during the open-to-media portion of the practices.

With Lawrence listed as questionable, it puts his 46-game streak of consecutive starts in jeopardy.

If he can’t play, the Jaguars will turn to backup quarterback CJ Beathard and will likely elevate practice squad quarterback Nathan Rourke for Sunday’s game.

Beathard, who has appeared in 30 games in his eight-year career, has been on the injury report this week with a left shoulder injury. When asked about the injury earlier this week, he told reporters he was feeling fine.

Rourke was brought in this season from the Canadian Football League. He played for the BC Lions and passed for 4,103 yards and 28 touchdowns in two years with the club. His wonder-play against Dallas during Jacksonville’s preseason created buzz for him around the league.

According to Pederson, Lawrence will be a game-time decision. That’s similar to the Week 7 Thursday Night Football game against New Orleans, where Lawrence battled through a knee injury to play.

“We’ve kind of gone through this with him,” Pederson said. “We did it last year with the toe, we did it this year with the knee, and he’s played, if history suggests, he’s played the next week … to me it shows his toughness. Physical toughness, mental toughness.

“When your quarterback exudes that I think it sends a message to your team, in a good way. The fact that he’s willing and able to put himself out there for his teammates and his team speaks volumes.”

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Chiefs star RB ruled out Sunday’s game vs. Bills with shoulder injury

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without one of their biggest offensive weapons on Sunday.

Running back Isiah Pacheco has been ruled out of the Chiefs’ home matchup against the Buffalo Bills due to a shoulder injury, the team announced on Friday. Pacheco, who suffered a shoulder bruise in the same shoulder he had surgery to repair a torn labrum in the offseason, didn’t practice all week before being ruled out.

The second-year running back has handled 57.8% of Kansas City’s rushing attempts this season (176 carries) and has compiled 779 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns through 12 games (11 starts). Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who is third in Chiefs’ carries (14%) behind Pacheco and QB Patrick Mahomes, will serve as the team’s lead running back on Sunday.

‘(Edwards-Helaire) is the number one guy,’ head coach Andy Reid said in a press conference Friday. ‘He’s done a great job. Clyde’s a good kid. The chances he’s had to play, he’s done well.’ 

Alongside Pacheco, safety Bryan Cook (ankle), OL Donovan Smith (neck) and LB Drue Tranquill (concussion) have also been ruled out vs. the Bills. Reid did not provide a timetable for Pacheco and Cook’s return to the field.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

‘We’ll see,’ Reid said when asked if Pacheco and Cook could land on the injured reserve with their injuries. ‘Both of them are kind of being evaluated right now, so I won’t say anything on that, but we have to see.’

Bills QB Josh Allen (right shoulder injury) and Mahomes (pectoral) were listed on their team’s respective injury reports, but both are expected to play on Sunday after logging multiple full practices this week.

Both teams are coming off a loss and desperately need a win: The Bills (6-6) lost 37-34 in overtime to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 before their bye week, and the Chiefs (8-4) lost 27-19 to the Green Bay Packers last week.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Will the S&P 500 Push Above 4600 Before Year-End?

There’s no denying the strength we’ve seen in risk assets since the October market low. When my Market Trend Model turned bullish on all three time frames in mid-November, it was difficult to deny the overwhelming positive momentum for equities. This strong upward momentum has now brought the major indexes up to key resistance levels. Will there be enough gas left in the tank to propel the SPX above 4600 and force a retest of the all-time high around 4800?

There are three ways to think about this particular scenario. First, we can consider the technical configuration of the S&P 500 itself. What can the chart of the SPX tell us about the likelihood of further upside? Second, we can dig into market breadth conditions. Are we seeing signs of extreme breadth readings that tend appear similar to previous market tops? Finally, we can review leading names in the growth space. Are the Magnificent 7 stocks still fulfilling their leadership role? What about top names in other sectors?

Mindful investors take time to reflect on their experiences. What worked and what didn’t? What made your successful trades so successful, and what did you learn from the trades that didn’t go so well?

In our next FREE webcast, I’ll share my Top Ten Questions Every Investor Should Ask at Year End. I go through these same ten questions at the end of every year, helping me focus on celebrating wins, learning from losses, and improving routines. Join me on Tuesday, December 12th at 1:00 PM ET, where I’ll reveal the ten questions, share my responses, and empower you to create your own year-end review!

Sign up HERE for this free event and set yourself up for success in 2024 and beyond!

At the end of the day, we are in a period of transition. The days of Fed rate hikes appear to be behind us, and 2024 will almost certainly bring a rotation to lower rates and a more dovish Fed. The seasonal playbook (have you picked up your 2024 Stock Trader’s Almanac yet?!?) has correctly indicated strength in November and December. What can price analysis tell us about the trends into early 2024?

The S&P 500 Has Stalled Out at 4600

In a bullish market phase, charts don’t just trade to resistance but through resistance. As the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and so many other key charts have approached a retest of their summer highs, I’ve been skeptical of further upside, given the likelihood of at least a minor pullback from such a significant level.

It’s striking to me that the S&P 500 has basically recouped three months of losses in about five weeks. Not a bad move off the October low! The RSI also confirms the strength of the recent upswing, going from oversold in late October to overbought in early December.

There are two things I’ll point out about the RSI pushing so high quickly. First, it’s usually a negative sign in the short-term. To be clear, the market can often go much higher after the initial overbought reading, but when the RSI moves back below the 70 level, that can often indicate that a pullback is now in play.

Second, it’s usually a positive sign for the medium-term trend. Charts can indeed become overbought during bearish market phases, but it’s way more common to see this phenomenon during a broader rally. So the simple fact that the market is overbought is usually an encouraging sign.

Market Breadth Suggests a Pullback is Imminent

Out of all the S&P 500 members, 83% are currently above their 50-day moving average. A quick review of this indicator in 2023 will show how this has correctly identified a market in the fourth quarter of an uptrend, as opposed to the first quarter.

The pink shaded area in the bottom panel highlights when the indicator has moved above 85%, a level we just barely reached earlier this month. The previous three times it was above 85% — July 2023, November 2022, and August 2022 — all coincided with meaningful market tops.

Now, just because this indicator reaches 85% doesn’t mean it’s the end of the world. In fact, a breadth indicator like this often serves as more of an early warning of an impending top, as opposed to confirming a top has already occurred. So there certainly be a bit of further upside for the SPX. In fact, the panel above shows the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average, which is well above 50%. This suggests a long-term bullish trend is still in play, as long as the indicator remains above that 50% level.

The Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 is also in the extreme bullish region, following the Nasdaq 100’s Bullish Percent Index above the crucial 70% level this week. Check out the red-shaded areas on this chart, and you’ll see that, when the indicator pushes above 70% and then back below, it’s usually a decent time to get defensive in your positioning.

Almost Every Stock on the Planet is Overbought

This overextended market is not just defined as such because the indexes have reached key resistance levels, or because market breadth conditions signal overbought conditions, but because the individual stocks that make up our major indexes are also showing all the signs of exhaustion.

Let’s review some large-cap names, not just in growth sectors like Technology, but more value-oriented sectors as well.

Home Depot (HD) has round-tripped back to its 2023 high around $330, and the RSI is overbought for the first time since the July peak.

The Financial sector has rejoined the bullish party, with regional banks like Keycorp (KEY) logging solid returns in November. KEY recently broke to a new swing high around $12.50, and the RSI pushed above 70 right as the breakout occurred.

The Industrial sector also has its share of strong recent performers, including airlines and other travel names pushing higher as interest rates and crude oil prices move lower. But MMM and other mega-cap stocks in this sector are experiencing overbought conditions as they push above moving average support.

So are overbought conditions a good thing or a bad thing? Well, both, depending on your time frame.  As we mentioned above, the market has followed the seasonal trends almost perfectly in 2023, and November and December are two of the strongest months of the year. So the long-term story remains positive here, in my opinion.

The Santa Claus rally period is often incorrectly declared any time there’s an upward move in December. But the Santa Claus rally actually only runs from late December to early January, and is more about the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day. So there’s plenty of space in the seasonal expectations for a brief pullback in mid-December to set us up for a bullish move in early 2024.

At the end of the day, the most bullish thing the market can do is go up. And I still see that in the cards, but only after the recent overbought conditions are alleviated!

RR#6,

Dave

P.S. Ready to upgrade your investment process? Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

Chief Market Strategist

StockCharts.com

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication. Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

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The Most Successful Base Pattern is Seeing a Pickup in Breakouts; Here Are Two Examples

Last week, the S&P 500 posted a modest 0.2% gain, which puts it within points of a 4-month base breakout at 4607. In addition to a breakout, a move above this level would put this Index above its July high, which is a key area of possible resistance. Of note, a lengthy base breakout often precedes a lengthy advance, such as the early July period this year, when a 4-month base breakout occurred ahead of a 9.6% gain for the S&P 500.

Currently, the broader markets are in an uptrend, which makes screening for stocks emerging from bases even more exciting. Today, I’ll be focusing on recent cup-with-handle base breakouts. Among the eight primary base patterns, the cup with handle remains to this day one of the most successful. This chart pattern was identified by William O’Neil during his decades-long research uncovering the commonalities among winning stocks that go on to outpace the markets. Other characteristics in addition to the chart are also present in these winners, as you’ll see in the examples below.

Daily Chart of Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL)

Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) posted a cup-with-handle base breakout this month, amid news that travel had picked up considerably over the Thanksgiving holiday. Of note is that the right side of the base for RCL did not reach the late July high in price. In addition, the breakout occurred on above-average volume, indicating accumulation. The buy point is above the high of the handle and shown by the arrow. From there, RCL has since entered an uptrend as the stock finds support at its upward trending 5-day moving average. Using the June period a precedent, RCL has further upside potential from here.

Daily Chart of IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (IDXX)

IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX) posted a cup-with-base breakout on Monday, following two Wall Street price target upgrades for the manufacturer of diagnostic products for the veterinary market. Analysts were impressed by the growth prospects presented by my management at an industry conference earlier this week. While the RSI is in an overbought position on the daily chart above, the weekly chart of IDXX has just posted a positive MACD, with the RSI below an overbought condition. This puts the stock in a bullish position for the long term.

As noted, a successful cup-with-handle breakout is coupled with several other characteristics, such as above-average volume on the handle breakout that’s been spurred by positive news regarding the outlook for growth. In addition, both companies above have recently reported strong earnings that were above estimates. As with all base breakouts, the probability of success is greatly increased if the broader markets are in a uptrend.

The necessary ingredients for a successful cup-with-handle base breakout discussed above are currently present among select homebuilding stocks, which are breaking out amid pent-up housing demand coupled with lower mortgage rates. We’ve highlighted two of these stocks as strong buys on the Suggested Holdings List of my twice-weekly MEM EDGE Report. If you’d like immediate access, use this link here for a low-cost trial, which can be halted at any time. This timely report will also alert you to any shift in our currently bullish outlook for the markets, as well as sector rotation that’s shaping up for next year.

Warmly,

Mary Ellen McGonagle

MEM Investment Research

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This Li’l Checkbox is KEY When Comparing Stocks & Charting Multiple Timeframes

On this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s StockCharts in Focus, Grayson shares the secret to comparing symbols and making multi-timeframe analysis a breeze! Using the “Load Symbol Only” checkbox, he demonstrates how to review a list of symbols with different chart templates, all without having to re-save the list and overwrite any of your previous work. Whether you’re reviewing watchlists to find new trade targets or sifting through your portfolio to see your open positions with different timeframes, this week’s show will help enhance your chart analysis workflow.

This video originally premiered on December 8, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated StockCharts in Focus page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube.

You can view all previously recorded episodes of StockCharts in Focus at this link.

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The Hoax of Modern Finance – Part 2: Indicators, Terminology, and Noise

Note to the reader: Over the next couple of weeks and months, I will be republishing the contents of my book, “Investing with the Trend,” in article form here on my blog. I’m calling this series “The Hoax of Modern Finance” for reasons you will learn below. Hopefully, you will find this content useful. As always, let me know what you think in the comments area below the article. – Greg Morris, Nov. 2023

Indicators and Terminology You Should Be Familiar With

In this article, a lot of basic information is provided to assist you in understanding the remainder of this book. There are definitions, mathematical formulae, explanations of anomalies, historical events that affect the data, differing methods of calculation, and a host of other important information normally found in an appendix. It is of such importance to understand this material that it belongs prior to the discussion and not in the appendix, as is usually the custom.

There are basically four different indicator types: differences, ratios, percentages, and cumulative. Differences are most common and should be adjusted for time-independent scaling. As the number of issues increases over time, the scaling will expand, and thresholds that worked in the past will need to be adjusted. One way to do this is to normalize the indicator so the scaling is always between zero and 100. The following section covers many popular indicators and concepts that will help you understand them better when discussed later in the book.

Absolute value

In mathematical script, this is denoted with | | around the value in which you want to have its absolute value. Absolute value calculations ignore the sign (positive or negative) of the number. With breadth data, absolute value ignores market direction and only deals with market activity. The absolute value of +3 is 3, and the absolute value of −3 is also 3.

Accumulated/summed (∑)

This is the term used to add up a series of numbers. (See also cumulative.) For example, the advance-decline line is an accumulation of the difference between the advances and the declines. That difference is summed with each new day’s difference added to the previous value. Also used with the term cumulate. In many formulae in this book, it is shown either as Previous Value + Today’s Value or ∑.

Alpha

Alpha is a benchmark relative risk-adjusted measure. It is not simply excess return. If markets were truly efficient, then there would be no alpha.

Arithmetic/simple moving averages

To take an average of just about anything numerical, you add up the numbers and divide by the number of items. For example, if you have 4 + 6 + 2, the sum is 12, and the average is 12/3 = 4. A moving average does exactly this, but as a new number is added, the oldest number is removed. In the example above, let’s say that 8 was the new number so that the sequence would be 6 + 2 + 8. The first 4 was removed because we are averaging only three numbers (3 period moving average). In this case, the new average would be 16/3 = 5.33. So by adding an 8 and removing a 4, we increased the average by 1.33 in this example. For those so inclined: 8 − 4 = 4, and 4/3 = 1.33.

In technical analysis, the simple or arithmetic average is used extensively. One thing that you should keep in mind is that with the simple average, each component is weighted exactly the same. This tends to make the simple average stale if it is used for large amounts of data. For example, the popular 200-day average means that the price 200 days ago carries the same weight or has the same effect on the average as the most recent price. It, therefore, is also much slower to change direction. See exponential average.

Average true range (ATR)

Average true range is the process of measuring the price action over a particular period, usually one day. Normally, this is done by just looking at the difference between the high and low prices of the day. However, ATR also includes the previous day’s close so that if there is a gap, the price action also includes that movement.

Behavioral finance

A relative newcomer to the analysis of markets, this is the study of why investors do what they do. “Behavioral finance is the study of the influence of psychology on the behavior of financial practitioners and the subsequent effect on markets,” to quote Martin Sewell (W6). “I think of behavioral finance as simply ‘open-minded finance,'” adds Thaler (A109).

Buy and hold

Buy and hold is the terminology used when discussing the act of making an investment and then just holding it for a very long time. This is more common than most would believe and can be a very bad decision during secular bear periods, which can last an average of 17 years.

Capitalization

Capitalization refers to the number of shares a company has outstanding multiplied by the price of the stock. Most market indices, such as the S&P 500, NYSE Composite, and the Nasdaq Composite, are capitalization-weighted, which means the big companies dominate the movement of the index.

Coefficient of determination

This measures the proportion of variability in a data set that is explained by another variable. Values can range from 0, indicating that zero percent of the variability of the data set is explained by the other variable, to 1, indicating that all of the variability in a data set is explained by the other variable. It is statistically shown as R2, which is nothing more than the square of correlation.

Correlation

A statistical measurement showing dependence between two data sets. Known in statistics and finance as R, it is used to determine the degree of correlation, noncorrelation, or inverse correlation between two data sets (often an issue such as a mutual fund and its benchmark).

Cumulative

Cumulative indicators can be differences, ratios, or percentages, where you are adding the daily results to the previous total. The advance-decline line is a good example of a cumulative indicator. It is sometimes referred to as accumulated or summed.

Detrend

A term to denote when you subtract the price from a moving average of the price. This will amplify the price relative to its smoothed value (moving average). To visualize this, pretend you had the ability to take both ends of the moving average line and pull it taut so that the price line falls into its same relative position to the now-straight moving average line. Doing this allows you to see cycles of a length greater than that of the number of periods used in the moving average.

Divergence

This is when an indicator and price do not confirm each other. At market tops, many times, the price will continue to make new highs, while an indicator will reverse and not make a new high. This is a negative divergence. A positive divergence is at market bottoms when the prices continue to make new lows, while the indicator does not and makes higher lows.

Drawdown

Drawdown is the percentage that the price moves down after making a new all-time high price. Drawdowns of greater than 20 percent are known as bear markets. This book will try to convince you that real risk is drawdown, not volatility, as modern finance wants you to believe.

Exponential moving averages

This method of averaging was developed by scientists, such as Pete Haurlan, in an attempt to assist and improve the tracking of missile guidance systems. More weight is given to the most recent data, and it is therefore much faster to change direction. It is sometimes represented as a percentage (trend percent) instead of by the more familiar periods. Here is a formula that will help you convert between the two:

K = 2/(N + 1) where K = the smoothing constant (trend percent) and N = periods

Algebraically solving for N: N = (2/K ) − 1

For example, if you wanted to know the smoothing constant of a 19-period exponential average, you could do the math, K = 2/(19 + 1) = 2/20 = 0.10 (smoothing constant) or 10 percent (trend) as it is many times expressed.

Here is something important in regard to exponential moving averages; by the nature of their formula, they will always change direction when they move through the price that is used to calculate them. This means that during an uptrend in prices and their exponential average, when the prices drop below the average, the average will immediately begin to decline. A simple or arithmetic average will not do this.

Filtered wave

Art Merrill says that this is an amplitude filter to remove the noise by filtering the data. He further states that the important swings in price action are clearly evident. Simply put, a filtered wave is a process of removing a predetermined percentage of noise.

Momentum

See Rate of change.

Normalize

This is a mathematical procedure to reduce the scaling of unlike data so it can be more easily compared. To normalize a series of data, one usually wants the resultant data to fall in a range from zero to 100. The easiest way to do this is by the following formula:

Current Value − Lowest Value in the Series

——————————————————————————- x 100

Highest Value in the Series − Lowest Value in the Series

Some of you might notice that this is similar to the formula for the %K Stochastic indicator, with the exception that, for stochastics, the highest and lowest values are set by the number of periods you want to use. Many indicators are served well by looking at their normalized values for a predetermined number of periods. For example, if there was a good identifiable cycle in the market being analyzed, the number of periods of that cycle length might be a good number to use for normalization. A number of the indicators in this book are normalized in that manner.

Oscillator

A term used to explain a number of technical indicators, such as rate of change, momentum, stochastics, RSI, and so on. These are all indicators that oscillate above and below a common value, which many times is zero. Other times, they oscillate between zero and 100.

Overbought/Oversold

These terms have got to be the most overused and misunderstood terms when talking about the markets. Overbought refers to the time in which the prices have risen to a level where it seems as if they cannot go any higher. Oversold is the opposite—prices have dropped to a point where it seems as if they cannot go any lower. Although this sounds simple enough, the term is usually based on someone’s personal observation of price levels and not on sound analysis.

Overlay

This refers to the act of putting an indicator on top of another one. A simple example would be displaying a moving average of an indicator on the same plot. In this case, the indicator and its moving average would utilize the same scaling. Many times, an unrelated indicator can be overlaid on another using totally independent price scaling.

Peak

Peak is terminology referring to a peak in prices, usually easy to identify if looking at a price chart, but it does depend upon the time frame you are working with. See Trough.

Percentage

Percentage is generally better than a ratio because you are making the item relative to its related base. For example, the number of new highs by itself can be meaningful in the short term, but over long periods of time and with more and more issues traded, the relationship cannot remain consistent. If you took the number of new highs as a percentage of the total issues traded, then the scaling will always be from 0 to 100, and large amounts of data can be viewed with some consistency.

Rate of change

Used interchangeably with momentum, rate of change is looking at a piece of data relative to a like piece of data at an earlier time. For example, with stock data, a 10-day rate of change would take today’s price and subtract or divide it by the stock’s price ten days ago. If one takes the difference in price and then divides it by the older price, you will see percentage changes. Generally, it is not the value of the rate of change that is important but the direction and pattern associated with it. However, some oscillators have consistent levels that can be used as overbought and oversold. More often than not, rate-of-change seems to be in reference to the difference in values, whereas momentum is more often the ratio of values. The line shape will be the same; only the numbers that make up the line will be different.

Ratio

A ratio is when you divide one data component by another. This keeps them in perspective and will alleviate many of the problems associated with using just the difference. Sometimes, the numerator and denominator are not balanced, and you get a nonsymmetrical problem similar to what you get with the Arms Index. This is really not a problem as long as you are aware that it exists. Finally, a ratio of positive numbers (or similar signs) is always going to be greater than zero.

Real

This is commonly used when referring to data that has been adjusted for the effects of inflation. Most raw data contains the effects of inflation, so by removing inflation from the data, it is called real, such as the real S&P 500. Real = Nominal – Inflation.

Regression

This provides us with an equation describing the nature of the relationship between two variables, plus supplies variance measures that allow us to access the accuracy with which the regression equation can predict values on the criterion variable, making it more than just curve-fitting. In modern finance, it is used extensively to generate alpha and beta when comparing two issues.

Semi-log

Semi-log refers to the price scaling on charts. The abscissa axis is normally the date axis, so it cannot be displayed logarithmically. Logarithmic scaling shows percentage moves in price and is much better for viewing longterm data. (Note: You cannot use semi-log scaling with any values of zero or negative numbers.)

Smoothing

This is in reference to averaging data either by a simple or exponential moving average. It is a better adverb to use than always trying to explain that you take the moving average of it or take the exponential moving average of it; just say you are “smoothing” it. It is also used as a verb, i.e., you “smooth” it.

Stop loss

Also known as a protective stop, this is a process in which an investor protects herself against losses larger than desired. There are many types of stop losses, such as a percentage drop from the buying price or a percentage drop from the current or highest price reached.

Support and resistance

First, the definitions of support and resistance, then an explanation as to what they are. More elaborate definitions are available in almost any text on technical analysis. In fact, one of the best discussions of it is in Steven Achelis’ book Technical Analysis from A to Z, where he ties it to supply and demand. Support is the price at which an issue has trouble dropping below. Resistance is the price level that it has trouble rising above.

Trendiness

This is my term for a market or any price series to maintain a trend. Of course, the trend must be defined by not only its magnitude but also its duration. An upcoming chapter deals with trending markets, and this term is used considerably in that chapter.

Trough

Trough is terminology referring to a low point in prices, usually easy to identify if looking at a price chart, but does depend upon the time frame you are working with. See Peak.

Volatility

Volatility is a measure of the movement of a time series, usually of price data, but is not restricted to that, however. There are many forms of volatility and there is an entire section in this book that discusses it.

World of Finance

This is a term I use to include financial academia and retail (sell side) Wall Street. There is much in this book that is critical of the world of finance.

There are other terms throughout the book, and when I think they need to be defined, the definition is presented on the first appearance of the term.

Living in the Noise

I’m constantly amazed at the media’s attempt to justify every move in the market with something in the news, whether it be economic, political, monetary, or whatever. If the market is up over the past hour, they find a positive news item to justify it. If the market is down, then a negative news item is used. There are other ongoing and constant drumbeats of useless information droning throughout the day while the market is open. Some are just plain wrong, such as “the market is down today because there are more sellers than buyers.” It is a free trading market, so for that to work, there has to be the same number of buyers and sellers, no matter what the market is doing. They would be correct if they said that the market sold off today because there was more selling enthusiasm. And finally, there is the endless supply of questions for the experts.

Here are some other examples of noise:

“Stocks are under pressure”—Why?”More sellers than buyers”—Impossible on a share basis.”What is causing this decline today?”—Always seeking a reason, rarely correct.”How do you think the market will end this year?”—Forecasting is a fool’s game.”The earnings beat expectations, and the stock is down two points”—Sad.”Cash on the sidelines”—How can that be? When you sell a stock, someone has to buy it.”The latest survey says…”—Who cares?”Breaking news”—It wouldn’t be news if it wasn’t breaking.”Countdown clocks”—Media fascination with investors’ fear.”Fair value on morning futures”—Waste of time.”Sorry, Pope Benedict, we have to cut you off because earnings reports are coming out”—Pathetic.”Asking a longtime buy-and-hold manager what he thinks of the market”—Hmmm, let me guess.”Brokerage firms offering magical technical analysis software to open an account”— It’s the farmer, not the plow.

Data

I used a great deal of stock market data in this book, primarily the daily series for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500. Reliable data is very important for proper analysis. I have seen references to stock market data back to the early 1800s, but it was spliced together from numerous sources, usually by academics who I think just don’t have the same appreciation for accuracy as I do. The two series I used most often have been in existence with original source since the start date of the data I used. Below is some information about the data used in this book.

S&P 500: My series began on December 30, 1927. From the beginning until March 3, 1957, it was the S&P 90. There is, however, older data produced by the Cowles Commission going back to 1871.

Dow Industrials: My series began on February 17, 1885, but records show that Charles Henry Dow began the series on July 3, 1884. While Charles Dow began publishing his series in 1897, he maintained the data from 1885. Following the introduction of the 12-stock industrial average in the spring of 1896, Dow, in the autumn of that year, dropped the last nonrailroad stocks in his original index, making it the 20-stock railroad average. Initially, the data was known only as the Dow Jones Average. In 1916, the industrial average expanded to 20 stocks; the number was raised again, in 1928, to 30, where it remains today.

Shiller PE and CPI data were obtained from Robert Shiller’s website. This is monthly data back to 1871 and is updated periodically. Keeping the data updated is also an important part of analysis; the data sources must be reputable. I use Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, and Pinnacle Data, and I would comfortably recommend them to anyone.

This book is not and never was designed to be a storybook to be read from beginning to end, but is a compilation of information about the markets, the flaws of modern finance, uncovering market history, misconceptions used to promote or market a flawed strategy, and a host of other tidbits. It takes almost two-thirds of the book to get to the “meat” of the book: rules-based trend-following models.

Furthermore, I think a money manager who follows a benchmark or particular style, whether managing funds or separate accounts, is never asked “why” they manage money that way. Simply put, if you are trying to at least track or outperform a benchmark, no one will ask why you try it that way. This is where a rules-based trend-following model, which is almost totally unconstrained in what to invest in and especially treats cash as an asset class, is completely different. Much of this book is about why I use a rules-based trend-following process.

Modern financial theory wants you to believe that the markets do not trend, are efficient, and, therefore, cannot be exploited for profit. They state that it is random and is normally distributed except for some very long-term periods that last many decades. What they ignore is that the market is made up of people, frail humans who act and invest like humans. Humans can be rational and they can be irrational, rarely knowing which is present and when. Being rational at times and being irrational at times is normal. This is not random behavior and is quite predictable. Hopefully, this book will effectively demonstrate those failings and offer a solution.

Another focus of this book is the subject of risk. There is a great story about the simplicity of risk analysis told by the late great Peter Bernstein in his book, Against the Gods. Blaise Pascal, in scribblings in the margin of his Pensees publication, puts for what is now known as Pascal’s Wager. He asks, “God is, or he is not. Which way should we incline? Reason cannot answer.” He explained that belief in God is not a decision. You cannot awake one morning and declare, “Today I think I will decide to believe in God.” You believe, or you do not believe. Pascal leads us through a decision path that ultimately says that if there is not a God, then it doesn’t matter. However, if there is a God, then the decision on how to live your life is important. Salvation is clearly preferable to eternal damnation; the correct decision is to act on the basis that God is. (B7)

I have sprinkled many quotes throughout this book. I like quotes because if something someone has said lasts over the years or is repeated often, it is probably profound. This is not unlike trite expressions, which I believe exist because they are generally true whether you want to believe them or not.

I give a lot of presentations/speeches, and each time, I learn something. One thing I learned a few years ago is that if you want to present some serious information to an audience that might just not understand your concepts or that resists anything that is new, use humor sparingly. The humor needs to be simple and essentially just witty, but not overly so. You must get them to uncross their arms and smile; this seems to improve their hearing. I have buried a little of that in this book—I think.

Throughout this book—in fact, throughout most of my life—I have had a tendency to explain things using multiple approaches in the hope of covering a broader audience. In fact, you’ll soon learn that I can beat a horse to death at times. If you grasp a concept I am explaining early, please accept my apologies for the remaining explanations.

Finally, here is a short comment about observable information versus actionable information. Often, the world of finance will produce very convincing data or charts that show historical information about the markets. The problem is that they are trying to convince you that you should invest a certain way based on the data they have shown. Usually, and more often than not, the data just shows you past market history and is really only observable information because you cannot turn that knowledge into an investment strategy or idea. Actionable information, on the other hand, is data or charts that show realistic information and can be converted into a valid investment strategy. Do not misunderstand this; observable information is about studying the past and learning about the markets, which is invaluable. However, it takes actionable information to make investment decisions.

Thanks for reading this far. I intend to publish one article in this series every week. Can’t wait? The book is for sale here. Next up: Common fallacies investors like you are told.

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