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Market in New Uptrend After Late-Week Rally

In this episode of StockCharts TV‘s The MEM Edge, Mary Ellen reviews the downtrend reversal in the markets and what areas came on the strongest last week. She also highlights best practices for putting new money to work.

This video was originally broadcast on March 3, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated MEM Edge page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of The MEM Edge air Fridays at 5pm PT on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link. You can also receive a 4-week free trial of her MEM Edge Report by clicking the image below.

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Three Signs Employment is Going to Take a Hit

Normally, the big monthly Employment Situation Report is released on the first Friday of every month, which would mean March 3. But, because of a complicated formula for how such information is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and because February is a short calendar month, this time the release is not until March 10. So we all get an extra week to contemplate what the numbers are going to do.

I am expecting that the recent months’ nice numbers for unemployment are going to change very soon (in economic terms). There are three great leading indications that help us know what the lagging data of unemployment are going to do, and this week’s lead chart is the first one. It reveals that changes in consumer confidence precede changes in the unemployment rate by about 10 months. This should mean a rise in the unemployment rate over the next few months, to match the drop in consumer confidence that started more than a year ago. The unemployment rate is currently a little bit late in making that upturn, which likely means that it is going to have to work extra hard to make up for lost time when the turn ultimately comes.

A similar message comes in the next chart from a longer-term leading indication. Changes in the inflation rate lead to corresponding changes in the unemployment rate about 2 years later.

This revelation makes it all the more infuriating that, just over 2 years ago, a lot of Federal Reserve officials were bemoaning the inflation rate being too low, below their made-up target of 2%. They actually wanted to get inflation up, oblivious to the reality that this would mean a rise in the unemployment rate, which hurts their “dual mandate.” Sadly, they got their wish.

This model calls for a dramatic rise in the unemployment rate, leading to a peak due in late 2024.

There is one more intermarket relationship that is interesting, and revelatory on this topic. It involves the stock market, and a different way of looking at employment.

The Employment-Population Ratio counts up every human alive in the U.S. (if you can believe the calculations) and compares that to how many people are working. It factors in not just unemployed people, but also infants, students, retirees, incarcerated, etc. It obviously fluctuates up and down with the economy, but also with changing demographics. 

Those changing demographics are not as interesting to contemplate as the economic fluctuations, although demographics obviously do matter in the big picture. COVID threw these data for a loop, sending some people into an early retirement. Even though the official Unemployment Rate (U-3) is at an historic low at 3.4%, we still have not recovered to pre-COVID levels in terms of the Employment-Population Ratio.

The fascinating point addressed in this chart is that the movements in the Employment-Population Ratio tend to lag the movements of the stock market by about a year. This point is especially valid when it comes to stock market declines, which tend to lead to corresponding declines in the Employment-Population Ratio. Most interesting is how the bottoms in the stock market tend to get echoed about 12 months later, on average, in the Employment-Population Ratio.

So if the October 2022 stock market low really is the bottom for that bear market (a point still yet unproven), then we can reliably expect a bottom in the Employment-Population Ratio that would be due in October 2023. That is a little bit hard to contemplate, since we have not even seen a commencement of a decline in that ratio. And if the 2022 bear market actually is not over yet, then that pushes back the end point for the coming decline in the jobs market, which the Fed seems so eager to engineer, thinking that it will somehow help inflation.

 As an epilogue, it is worth noting in any discussion about the actual employment or unemployment numbers that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is having a harder time gathering and tabulating these data. The employment and nonfarm payrolls numbers come from what is known as the “establishment survey”, which involves asking businesses how many people they employ. The unemployment rate numbers come from the “household survey”, which involves calling people on the phone to ask how many people there are in a house, and how many of them are working, looking for work, etc.

The BLS notes at https://www.bls.gov/osmr/response-rates/ that response rates for both of these surveys have been falling. Here is a BLS chart showing those response rates for various components of the establishment survey:

The BLS article linked above has explanations for all of the acronyms listed in the chart, if you wish to explore those differences further. And here is a chart showing the falling response rates for the household survey.

The drop in household response rates makes sense, as more people are migrating away from having landline phones, and as the proliferation of telemarketers leads to fewer people being willing to accept an incoming phone call from a number that they do not recognize. Political polling firms are suffering from these same problems. These lower response rates will understandably affect the numerical accuracy of the data, and so it falls to us to not necessarily believe the precise numbers that get published. But we can still believe generally in the story that they tell about changes of trend direction that come from fluctuations in economic activity.

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This Semiconductor ETF is Hitting a Critical Juncture

In the next few days, SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF), along with other similar “chip index” funds, may see a strong bounce toward the upside. 

What’s going on? Technically speaking, the semiconductor index just broke out of a head and shoulders bottom on January 23, and now the index is about to test the neckline.

CHART 1: DAILY CHART OF VANECK VECTORS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF IS SHOWING STRENGTH. A breakout of a head and shoulders bottom, golden cross, and potential for stochastic oscillator and RSI to turn higher support an upward move in SMH.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Where’s the Head and Shoulders? It started in July. The chart above shows where the left shoulder (LS), head (H), and right shoulder (RS) are located. The volume dwindled from left to right shoulder, which is pretty typical in this pattern.

So, what does this mean? Well, it’s a bullish pattern overall, despite the neckline sloping downward (upward-sloping necklines tend to fare better). Still, these patterns tend to hit their upward-bound price targets 71% of the time, according to technical analyst Thomas Bulkowski (based on 3,197 perfect trades).

Hold on, isn’t the chip industry expected to hit a snag? Sort of, especially if the economy falls into recession. Nevertheless, semiconductors historically perform better than other tech sector industries because they’re essential to electronic devices. Recession or no recession, people need their gadgets. And those gadgets require chips.

How’s SMH performing compared to the rest of Tech? It’s outperforming tech. And for a broader market reference, it’s also outperforming the S&P 500 index.

What we’re looking at:

SMH, as of this writing, has a StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) of 93.9, going back a three-month time frame. In contrast, the Tech Sector (via XLK) has a SCTR score of 63.5.

First off, note the Golden Cross that occurred in January; an event that supports a potential bullish setting.The Stochastics Oscillator is turning upward from a relatively oversold level. The relative strength index (RSI) is sort of hovering around the 50 level. So, despite the rise following the head and shoulders neckline breakout, a trader wouldn’t be entering  the “overbought” zone according to the stochastics oscillator or RSI. If SMH continues to dip, we’re looking at the 225 to 235 range where the neckline is currently sloping. So, set an alert on your StockCharts platform for when SMH crosses below 225. If SMH bounces off this level, that’s where traders are likely to jump in if they were to take this technical signal.

How is this pattern typically traded? A traditional approach would be to use a measured move type rule. Do you see the green vertical arrow on the chart? Typically, you’d subtract the height of the formation (neckline price – the bottom H) and add that to the breakout price. This works out to 59.42. Add that to the neckline break price of $231, and you get a price target of around $290.50. However, SMH will likely face resistance at around the $253 level, which it hit earlier this year.

As far as stop placement, it really depends on your preferences. With a potential reward of $60, how much would you be willing to risk? You could place a stop below the neckline or apply a trailing stop while in the trade. 

The bottom line: This is a fleeting opportunity for an intermediate-term trade. If you’re looking for anything beyond that, you might want to get a bigger picture of the broader market and economy. Again, chips tend to lead the market (mainly because the production process takes up to a year from start to finish), but the market and economy always have the final say, and that last word can sometimes hit rather suddenly and forcefully.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

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More Americans are counting on their tax refunds to help them stay afloat this year as inflation lingers

Even as experts say tax refunds are likely to be smaller this year compared with other pandemic years, nearly half of all Americans now say their tax refund will be critical to their household finances.

A new survey from Bankrate found that 43% of Americans say this year’s refund is ‘very important’ to their financial health, with another 32% saying it is ‘somewhat important.’

That 75% total compares with last year’s 67% who said the refund was important.

The higher measure comes as the expiration of emergency stimulus programs like the expanded child tax credit are expected to shrink the size of refunds that filers can expect this year. Indeed, through the week ending Feb. 17, tax refunds have averaged $3,140, compared with $3,536 last year.

But with inflation at multidecade highs and debt levels steadily climbing, Bankrate found high levels of anxiety associated with how far those tax refunds will ultimately go. Thirty-four percent of those surveyed said they are worried the money won’t make as big of an impact ‘due to inflation/rising costs,’ while another 19% expressed concerns about covering rising interest payments with them.

Compared to last year, more survey respondents, 28%, said they would use their refund to pay down debt. It was 23% last year. Another 26% said this year they would use their refund money to boost their savings, down from 32% last year.  

Despite the relative dependence on a tax refund, Bankrate senior industry analyst Ted Rossman said counting on that money as a key financial planning tool is generally unwise, even though that’s the reality for many households.

“You’re getting your money back, which you have lent to the government at 0 percent interest, throughout the past year,” Rossman said in a Bankrate news release.

“Remember that a tax refund isn’t free money,” Rossman said. “While some people prefer to receive a lump sum because they fear they would fritter away the bits and pieces throughout the year, it’s generally better to adjust your withholding, so you get more money from each paycheck and essentially break even at tax time.”

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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The homeownership gap between Black and white households hits widest rate in a decade

After briefly spiking amid pandemic lockdowns, the rate of U.S. homeownership has stabilized at approximately 66%, a solid increase from the post-Great-Recession-low of 63% reached in 2016.

Yet over the past decade, the gap in homeownership between Black and white Americans widened to a 10-year high, according to a news release Thursday from the National Association of Realtors (NAR).

From 2011 to 2021, the most recent year cited by the association, the Black American homeownership rate increased less than half of one percentage point, from 43.6% to 44%. For white Americans, the rate climbed approximately 3 percentage points, from about 70% to 72.7%.

That 29% gap represents the largest racial homeownership disparity in 10 years — up from 26% in 2011.

“Unfortunately, the incredible affordability challenges of the last year have hit minority home buyers more than white buyers,” Jessica Lautz, NAR deputy chief economist and vice president of research, said in a statement. “Black buyers are more likely to be first-time buyers, who are more sensitive to changes in mortgage interest rates, while White buyers are more likely to have housing equity to rely on as they make a housing trade.”

Indeed, measures of affordability have reached their worst levels on record, the result of rising mortgage rates in recent months and surging home prices in the last few years. According to NAR, buyers now need to earn more than $100,000 per year if they want to purchase a median-priced home without going beyond their budget.

Black Americans also continued to have the highest denial rates for mortgage loans among all racial groups, according to Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data cited by NAR. Twenty percent of loan applicants who are Black get denied mortgages, compared with about 11% of white applicants. And 51% of loans for home improvement applied for by Black homeowners are denied.

When comparing the qualifying income to purchase the typical home with the median income of renter households, the National Association of Realtors estimates that while 17% of white renters can currently afford to buy a median-priced home — $467,700 at last measure — only 9% of Black renters nationwide can do the same.

Other racial groups have experienced more substantial gains over the past decade. The rate of homeownership for Asian American households rose nearly 5 percentage points, to an all-time high of 62.8% in 2021. And the rate for Hispanic-American households increased by more than 4 percentage points over the decade, to 50.6%.

A prevailing reason for the underperformance of Black households in terms of homeownership is lower incomes — though it is unlikely the sole explanation. The median Black home-buying household had a median annual income of $80,000, compared with $85,000 for white households.

Meanwhile, 8% of Black homebuyers said they had experienced discrimination in a real estate transaction — the highest rate among racial groups.

“Even among successful home buyers, Black Americans have lower household incomes, which narrows the available pool of inventory they may be able to afford and makes their journey into homeownership even more difficult in this limited housing inventory environment,” Lautz said.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS
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Top 10 most head-turning NFL combine performances ever

Each year, NFL draft prospects descend on Indianapolis looking to make their case in front of scouts, general managers and coaches. How these prospects perform in tests of speed, strength and agility can have a profound impact on where they land in the draft.

Whether it’s with a blazing 40-yard dash time, a gravity-defying jump, a show of strength on the bench press, or eye-popping performance in the positional drills, prospects have a number of ways to impress NFL decision-makers during their time inside Lucas Oil Stadium.

Here are players who had dominant combine efforts, and saw their draft stock improve as a result.

1. Mike Mamula: Combine visionary

1995 draft: First round (No. 7 overall), Philadelphia Eagles

Mamula was a rarity back in the mid-1990s: a prospect who trained specifically for the drills of the NFL scouting combine. His performance — including a reported 40-yard dash time of 4.58 seconds, which was especially incredible for a defensive end prospect at the time — vaulted Mamula atop the first round of the draft, and he remains a cautionary tale for NFL teams to avoid being romanced by impressive combine numbers.

2. Bo Jackson: Stuff of legend

Draft: First round (No. 1 overall), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1986); Seventh round (No. 183 overall), Los Angeles Raiders (1987)

Official NFL combine data only goes back to 2006, so Jackson’s unconfirmed 40 time of 4.13 seconds (according to Jackson, though some tales have the time at 4.12) will remain a part of the league’s mythology. One thing is for sure, however: at 6-1, 227 pounds, Jackson’s combination of size and speed was a terrifying prospect for opposing defensive players.

3. John Ross: NFL’s fastest man

2017 draft: First round (No. 9 overall), Cincinnati Bengals

Chris Johnson’s modern-day 40-yard dash standard of 4.24 seconds stood for nearly a decade. At the 2017 combine, Ross toppled that time, running a 4.22-second 40. Unfortunately, Ross’ NFL career didn’t quite take off like his draft stock did after his trip to Indy. He posted a career-high 506 yards receiving in an injury-shortened 2019 season, and played his last NFL season in 2021 with the New York Giants.

4. Byron Jones: Broad jump record

2015 draft: First round (No. 27 overall), Dallas Cowboys

Step aside, Arne Tvervaag. You might ask, who’s Arne Tvervaag? Well, in 1968, Tveraag did a 12-foot, 2-inch standing long jump. That jump is considered a world record. At the 2015 combine, Jones did a 12-foot, 3-inch broad jump, which might be the new all-time mark. The standing long jump used to be an Olympic event, and an American (Ray Ewry) had posted the world record (11 feet, 4 1/2 inches in 1904) before Tveraag broke it. Now the standing long jump lives on at the NFL combine.

5. J.J. Watt: Show of force

2011 draft: First round (No. 11 overall), Houston Texans

Watt already was considered a strong first-round candidate before the events of the 2011 combine. Inside Lucas Oil Stadium, Watt put on a performance that would offer a glimpse of what would eventually transpire in the NFL. The future three-time NFL defensive player of the year ran a 4.84-second 40, had a 37-inch vertical and 10-foot broad jump, while also doing 34 bench press reps. All except that 40 time — which for a 6-5, 290-pounder was still mighty impressive — were enough to place Watt among the best in his position group.

6. Aaron Donald: Strength and speed

2014 draft: First round (No. 13 overall), St. Louis Rams

Donald was a fast-rising prospect in the time between when he collected the 2013 Outland Trophy and became a first-round draft pick. Like Watt before him, Donald displayed the sort of athleticism at the combine that would help him win defensive player of the year. Donald ran a 4.68-second 40 and had 35 bench press reps, both among the best for defensive linemen at that year’s combine. 

7. Vernon Davis: Fastest TE ever

2006 draft: First round (No. 6 overall), San Francisco 49ers

At 250 pounds, Davis ran a 4.38-second 40 and had a 42-inch vertical, and his draft stock sprinted to near the top of the 2006 class. No notable tight has come close to beating that 40 time. Evan Engram, a 2017 first-rounder to the Giants, came the closest among recent competitors with a 4.42-second mark.

8. Stephen Paea: NFL strongman

2011 draft: Second round (No. 53 overall), Chicago Bears

Paea is the NFL combine bench press king. His 49 reps of 225 pounds has yet to be surpassed. The closest any prospect has come to that total was at the 2012 combine, when Dontari Poe did 44 reps.

9. Dontari Poe: Big man who can run

2012 draft: First round (No. 11 overall), Kansas City Chiefs

Poe boosted his draft status in a big way in 2012, and the most impressive number posted by the defensive tackle might have been his 40-yard time. Poe ran the 40 in under five seconds (4.98) at nearly 350 pounds. Poe went from a possible second-rounder to a mid-first round selection. Three years later, Poe became the heaviest player in NFL history to score a touchdown.

10. Pat O’Donnell: Most athletic punter ever?

2014 draft: Sixth round (No. 191 overall), Chicago Bears

At a combine that featured hyped-up prospects such as Johnny Manziel and Jadeveon Clowney, O’Donnell out-performed both. O’Donnell, it should be noted, is a punter, and specialists rarely go through combine drills. O’Donnell’s 40 time of 4.64 seconds was faster than Manziel’s time of 4.68. On the bench press, O’Donnell did 23 reps of 225 pounds, bettering Clowney’s total of 21.

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Jim Reineking on Twitter @jimreineking.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Top NFL draft prospect turns himself in on arrest warrant

NFL draft prospect Jalen Carter turned himself in to authorities Wednesday night after a warrant was issued for his arrest Wednesday morning, jail records show.

Carter, 21, was booked into Athens-Clarke County Jail in Georgia at 11:33 p.m. Wednesday and released shortly afterward at 11:49 p.m., on his own recognizance. His arraignment date is set for April 18.

Carter is facing misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing in connection with the fatal crash that killed one of his Georgia football teammates, Devin Willock, and recruiting staffer Chandler LeCroy earlier this year.

It is immediately unclear whether Carter has retained an attorney. His agent has not responded to a request for comment.

The Athens-Clarke County Police Department said in a news release that Carter was behind the wheel of a 2021 Jeep Trackhawk on the morning of the crash, which occurred around 2:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 15. An investigation found that he appeared to be racing LeCroy, whom police said was intoxicated at the time.

‘Both vehicles switched between lanes, drove in the center turn lane, drove in opposite lanes of travel, overtook other motorists, and drove at high rates of speed, in an apparent attempt to outdistance each other,’ police said in the news release.

Carter, a projected top-five pick in next month’s NFL draft, had been scheduled to speak with reporters at the scouting combine in Indianapolis when the arrest warrant was issued. He was one of the star players on Georgia’s national title-winning teams the past two seasons, and a unanimous All-American in 2022.

Contact Tom Schad at tschad@usatoday.com or on Twitter @Tom_Schad.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Biggest question each IndyCar driver faces entering 2023 season

The 2023 NTT IndyCar season kicks off this weekend in Florida following an offseason of change in the paddock.

Eight full-time IndyCar drivers — four of them rookies — find themselves on new teams in 2023. Two others underwent number and sponsorship changes, raising questions about their long-term futures in their current homes. Five additional series veterans face levels of uncertainty as to where their careers might take them in 2024 — and whether they  might be full-time IndyCar drivers at all.

A lot of questions to be answered, right?

While 10 or more drivers begin their respective 2023 campaigns Sunday in the Firestone Grand Prix of St. Petersburg with legitimate title contention hopes, much of IndyCar’s midfield is mired in some level of speculation about what lies ahead of them.

INDYCAR 2023: Qualifying update, alternate oval tires among technical changes

Here are the most pressing questions each full-time (or in Marcus Armstrong’s case, majority full-time) IndyCar driver faces in 2023, listed in the order in which I predict they’ll finish in the final season standings.

Scott McLaughlin

Can he become top-dog on his own team? To do so, McLaughlin will likely have to borrow traits from both his Penske teammates – skills he was beginning to show a year ago – and find ways to pile up wins (Josef Newgarden) while remaining consistently in the top-5 conversation each week (Will Power). Only then can he truly challenge for a title.

Josef Newgarden

What will it take to be more than second-best? Over the last three years of consecutive runner-up finishes, Newgarden has won 11 times. The next-most among drivers that haven’t won a title in that span is five. The Team Penske driver has been undoubtedly the best driver of the aeroscreen era, and yet, when he isn’t winning, it hasn’t been good enough.

Scott Dixon

Can he turn in another dominant May? After having the best car across the month for three years running, Dixon has had bad luck (or his own pitlane mistake) derail his shot at a second 500 win. It would be easy for anyone not named the Ice Man to lose half a step, but if he’s to break through, he’ll have to be there with 20 laps to go.

Colton Herta

Can he limit his team’s bad weekends? Though he hasn’t won nearly as frequently as Newgarden, Herta’s been plagued the last two years by his off race weekends erasing any benefit he gains from his weekends running up front. After taking 3rd in the 2020 title race when capitalizing on a few more chances to win could’ve clinched a title, Herta’s fallen to 5th, and then 10th, as his consistency has fallen off.

Will Power

How much magic does Power have left? Few outside his wife saw the 41-year-old’s second championship in the cards in 2022, one he won largely due to his ability to almost always find his way to the front (13 top-6 finishes). Power had finished better than 3rd in the title race just once in the previous five years, so time will tell if 2022 marked a career resurgence or one last great run.  

Pato O’Ward

Can his team give him a title-contending car? No one doubts O’Ward’s own skills on-track but we hear too often that his car just wasn’t “in the window.” Arrow McLaren continues to ride quite a wave of hype with the team’s rapid growth, but it’s time to prove it by consistently hanging with Ganassi and Penske.

Alex Palou

Is his heart truly set on leaving Chip Ganassi Racing? All the signs point to Palou leaving the team he won his 2021 title with for a hefty payday and a faint hope at F1 dreams at Arrow McLaren, but should he again finish ahead of all his future teammates, I struggle to feel like it’s the best move long-term for his IndyCar career. Only Palou will know if the doubts begin to trickle in.

Alexander Rossi

Can he avoid the typical ‘new team slump’ that’s plagued several drivers of late? After championship finishes of 9th, 10th and 9th over his final three years with Andretti Autosport, I don’t imagine there’s anywhere for Rossi to fall. Still, immediately finding championship-like form with Arrow McLaren might not be as easy as he hopes.

Romain Grosjean

Can he prove to Michael Andretti he’s worth another contract? DHL’s desire to latch onto a worldwide brand may already have this decided, but if not, Grosjean will need to find a way to erase his number of finishes outside the top-15 (9 in 2022) and find the form of a top-level Andretti driver to earn another deal.

Marcus Ericsson

Does he have another level? Ericsson’s won three races in two years (including the biggest one on the calendar), and yet, without more top-5 finishes, it’s hard to imagine him finishing much higher than his 6th-place of the last two years. Top-10 consistency is nice, but it won’t win you a championship.

Felix Rosenqvist

Can he force Zak Brown’s hand? As mentioned above, most in the paddock assume Palou’s move to Arrow McLaren is only a matter of time – quite possibly ending the Swede’s three-year tenure with the team. Still, Brown’s mentioned in passing a willingness to consider expanding to four full-time cars. If Rosenqvist can beat one or two of O’Ward, Rossi and Palou, he could force the issue.

Christian Lundgaard

Does he have the talent to match the hype? It takes a rare kind of driver to launch a middle-of-the-road team toward the top of the grid, and with some of the sparks he showed as a rookie, Lundgaard may be just that. But even if Rahal Letterman Lanigan steadies the ship with its various personnel changes, it’s going to take a special talent to fight consistently with the best of Penske, Ganassi, Andretti and McLaren.

Graham Rahal

Does he still have a win left in him? It’s now been five years since Rahal swept the 2017 Detroit doubleheader, and as IndyCar’s talent pool has gotten far deeper (and younger), Rahal’s never been able to get back. His 2022 campaign was his first full-time American open-wheel season without a podium. He’ll have to get back there before we can start talking about victories.

Kyle Kirkwood

Just how good can he be in top-level equipment? As a rookie with bottom-dweller AJ Foyt Racing, we didn’t see anything close to the talent Kirkwood flashed as the Road to Indy’s most dominant force. He’s admitted to pushing past his car’s limit in hopes of willing himself to top-10s. Without that deficit to overcome, Kirkwood’s Year 2 leap will be important to watch.

Simon Pagenaud

Is there any hope of delivering a top-10 performance across the season? Pagenaud hoped, with his pedigree, to help Meyer Shank Racing best the ceiling it seemed to have hit with Jack Harvey (13th in points in 2021). Instead, the 2016 champ managed just 15th in Year 1. Cracking the top-10 will take displacing at least three title-contending cars from the top-4 teams on the grid.

Rinus VeeKay

Does he have a Newgarden-like leap to make? In his first three years with Sarah Fisher Hartman Racing, the future two-time champ logged just two podiums and a best points finish of 13th. Ed Carpenter’s patience gave him a shot to reach 7th in Year No. 4 and 4th in Year No. 5. If we’re ever to think VeeKay is a future title-contender, we’re going to need to see pronounced improvement in 2023.

Callum Ilott

With still the smallest, most inexperienced team on the grid, can the second-year Brit find more Laguna-like magic? Ilott said at Content Days he believes that “in the quickest car, I don’t think there’s many people quicker than me,” but those days with JHR won’t come often. Should he hope to one day jump to a more competitive outfit, he’ll need to make the most of those opportunities when he finds them.

David Malukas

Does he have more races like WWT Raceway in him? Malukas received rave reviews for his runner-up finish in the final oval race last year, but he was rarely in the weekend conversations otherwise. It’s an uphill battle to fight for consistent top-10s with a midfield team like Coyne, but there’s clearly some potential. Whether he can harness it more often will determine the next chapter of his career.

Jack Harvey

Can he replicate Rosenqvist’s 2022? Harvey expected his move from MSR to RLL to be a step up in the paddock. Instead, his first campaign at his new home was his worst as a full-time IndyCar driver. Rosenqvist experienced a similar free-fall in his results from 2020 to ’21, moving from Ganassi to Arrow McLaren, and his 8th-place finish a year ago helped him hang onto his ride for another year. With so much young talent in the paddock, while not bringing budget to the table, Harvey will need a similar rebound to hang onto his ride.

Conor Daly

Is there another level left for him to reach? As Daly embarks in his fourth consecutive full-time season (second with ECR) it’s fair to wonder if he can be expected to deliver anything more than a couple top-12 finishes and some flair in the 500. IndyCar’s midfield gets deeper by the year, and though being backed by an enthused full-time primary sponsor helps one hold onto their ride, the results to back it up need to be there, too.

Devlin DeFrancesco

Can he prove he’s Andretti material? At the time of his signing, Michael Andretti said his plans for DeFrancesco always had a long runway, given his history within the team and the budget he brings to the table. But it’s hard to ignore the worst full-season championship finish of the team’s history. The young Canadian driver only finished in the top-half of the field once as a rookie. His ceiling must rise.

Helio Castroneves

Can he prove he deserves another full-time season? Castroneves’ team owner Mike Shank said several times that the four-time 500 winner’s future as a full-time driver came down to more than his results. He’s beloved among sponsor executives. But with Tom Blomqvist waiting in the wings within MSR’s IMSA squad with an IndyCar test under his belt, it may prove tough to fend off Father Time.

Marcus Armstrong

Can he still win Rookie of the Year? Count me in the camp that thinks, despite missing the five ovals on the calendar, Armstrong could still challenge the other three rookies in his class for the crown. A couple podiums from the young New Zealander could go a long way in delivering an exciting ROY battle.

Santino Ferrucci

Can he help pull AJ Foyt Racing from the depths of IndyCar’s team hierarchy? Across two partial seasons with three teams and his two full seasons with Coyne, Ferrucci’s proven he can do a lot with a little. That skill will be put to the test at Foyt. The team has upped its investment in resources over the offseason, and it needs the right young driver willing to put in the hard work to make it anything other than an afterthought.

Sting Ray Robb

Is he as talented as recent top-2 Indy Lights finishers? Robb comes to IndyCar without nearly the level of acclaim as Malukas, Kirkwood, VeeKay, O’Ward and Herta, and it’s well-known his funding helped land him a ride while the ’22 Lights champ Linus Lundqvist remains on the sidelines. Coyne rookies that have come before him (Malukas, Grosjean and Palou for starters) have shown there’s strong results to be had. It’s up to Robb to rise to the occasion.

Agustin Canapino

Was his performance at Thermal more than an outlier? The Argentine rookie wowed those at the Open Test by finishing around the top-20 each session among the 27-car field, despite virtually no open-wheel experience. Then again, no one in the field had ever driven on the track. Should he come close to repeating that this year against a seasoned field of competitors, Ricardo Juncos may have found a gem.

Benjamin Pedersen

Can he occasionally run somewhere other than the back of the grid? Foyt’s struggles in recent years are well-documented, and IndyCar’s history of Lights drivers making the leap after something other than a top-3 finish in the top of the Road to Indy ladder is pretty grim. The expectation is he’ll do little more than take Dalton Kellett’s spot consistently at the back of the grid. Exceeding those would be a strong rookie campaign.

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Kobe Bryant crash photos scandal costs taxpayers $51 million

Vanessa Bryant fought for the rights of her family and succeeded at every step.

She sued Los Angeles County in 2020, won her jury trial in August and then got a $28.85 million settlement from the county to resolve her claims about what happened after nine people died in a helicopter crash in January 2020, including her daughter and husband, Kobe, the NBA legend.

But that’s only part of the story and cost to county taxpayers. It’s also another example of how the actions of a few public safety officers can have big repercussions on the community they’ve sworn to protect.

The total bill for the county in this case is $51.3 million in settlements, including the settlement for the Bryant family announced on Tuesday.

It also includes a $19.95 million settlement for the family of Chris Chester, who lost his wife and daughter in the same crash.

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Before that, two other families who lost loved ones in the accident got settlements of $1.25 million each – the Altobelli and Mauser families.

Who pays for the settlements and why?

Taxpayers in Los Angeles County are on the hook for this.

The Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors approved all those settlements since November 2021, not because the county was at fault for the crash itself but because of what county fire and sheriff’s department employees did in response to the crash in the hours and days afterward.  

They were accused of using their personal phones to take and share photos of dead crash victims from the crash scene without having a legitimate business reason for doing so. These first responders instead shared and displayed these death images for their own amusement or as souvenirs, violating the privacy rights of the families, according to the families’ attorneys.

The Mauser and Altobelli families settled before trial. Chester and Bryant elected to go to trial in federal court and won $15 million each in verdicts from a jury of nine. These amounts were to cover $2.5 million for their past emotional distress and $12.5 million each for their future emotional distress after they said they lived in constant fear of these photos resurfacing. 

The settlements include those verdicts and all remaining and future claims of the families.

In its defense, the county said the photos were deleted and never posted online, but ultimately it was held accountable with the settlements.

‘Our failure to prevent those photos from being taken hurt Vanessa Bryant and Chris Chester as well as LA County taxpayers who ultimately had to foot the bill of the massive settlements,’ Los Angeles County Supervisor Janice Hahn said in a statement to USA TODAY Sports. ‘It is important that we not only have new policies for our first responders on the books, but those policies will only be as effective as the training that comes along with them. We need all our current first responders and every new hire to be educated about what these new policies mean and trained explicitly in what is expected of them.’

How will this affect taxpayers?

Los Angeles County is the most populous county in the nation with about 10 million people. Such a large tax base in turn fuels the county government’s annual budget of more than $38 billion, which is more than enough to take a hit of $51 million.

But that’s not what taxpayers and their elected leaders want to spend their money on. The $51 million instead is generally ‘absorbed’ in the budget, which trickles down in the form of reduced services for those footing the bill.

‘The tax dollars used for legal settlements could have been used to help schools, improve public safety, address homelessness, or refund money to struggling taxpayers,’ said David Kline of the California Taxpayers Association, a nonpartisan, non-profit tax research and advocacy group.

Kline said the biggest issue is that ‘the Bryant family had to go through this.’

‘Hopefully this case will lead to changes so this sort of thing won’t happen again,’ he said.

Has it led to changes?

The first big change came in 2020, when the California legislature made it a misdemeanor crime for first responders to take unauthorized photos of dead people from crime or accident scenes. California Gov. Gavin Newsom signed it into law that year in response to the Bryant crash photos scandal.

At the civil trial in August, the jury also found county agencies liable as it pertained to their failure to prevent this kind of conduct with adequate policies or training.

County Supervisor Hahn then put forward a motion asking the fire and sheriff’s departments to develop new policies explicitly prohibiting first responders from taking photos like the ones in this case as well as requiring new training on those policies. One example of that came last month, when the fire department said in a letter to the county board that it had disseminated a new training module involving photographs from first responders.

A part of that involves emergency incident photography. Among other things, it states: ‘In the event that Department personnel who are authorized to take photographs for the purpose of documenting an emergency incident inadvertently photograph a patient/victim/dead body/dead body parts in the background of the photo, the patient/victim/dead body/dead body parts shall be immediately redacted from the photograph.’

Is this what Bryant wanted?

She has said she wanted ‘accountability’ for what happened and didn’t ask for a specific dollar amount at her jury trial. Her attorney, Luis Li, told the jury then that this kind of despicable conduct has been going on for decades among law enforcement officers, though the county said there wasn’t evidence to support this in Los Angeles.

‘Make it stop,’ he told the jury in August.

The jury’s verdict and other measures resulting from it are designed to do just that, while also helping county taxpayers avoid another financial hit like this. Individual fire and sheriff’s personnel involved in the scandal also were suspended or received discharge notices for their conduct with the photos.

‘She fought for her husband, her daughter, and all those in the community whose deceased family were treated with similar disrespect,’ Li said in a statement Tuesday. ‘We hope her victory at trial and this settlement will put an end to this practice.’

Who is ultimately accountable for these big cost risks?

Elected leaders. This and other scandals didn’t help the reelection campaign last year of L.A. County Sheriff Alex Villanueva, who was ousted from office by county voters. In this case, shortly after the crash, he suggested the photos be deleted by his deputies to avoid their further spread.

In the end, the conduct of his deputies continued to add to the taxpayers’ cost. Besides the $51 million in the photos case settlements, the county board in November approved $47.6 million to settle five other cases alleging misconduct in his department, including three deputy shootings. Four of those incidents came during his four-year term.

Follow reporter Brent Schrotenboer @Schrotenboer. Email: bschrotenb@usatoday.com

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Ravens WR blasts GM in since-deleted tweet: ‘Stop pointing the finger’

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Rashod Bateman blasted his team’s general manager Eric DeCosta over comments DeCosta made at the NFL scouting combine about the quality of receivers the team has drafted.

“How bout you play to your player’s strength and & stop pointing the finger at us and #8,” Bateman wrote Thursday in a message posted to his verified Twitter account, making a reference to quarterback Lamar Jackson. “Blame the one you let do this…. we take heat 24/7. & keep us healthy … care about US & see what happen..ain’t no promises tho … tired of y’all lyin and capn on players for no reason.’

Bateman, 23, then deleted the tweed and sent another shortly afterward, apologizing.

In the 2021 NFL draft, the Ravens selected Bateman No. 27 overall. In his career, Bateman has appeared in 18 games and has totaled 800 receiving yards on 61 receptions, with three touchdowns.

Here’s everything you need to know about the situation.

Did any other Ravens players chime in?

Not yet, but former Ravens receiver Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown, currently with the Arizona Cardinals, replied in a tweet that had a screenshot of Bateman’s post with the caption: ‘Let him cook,’ a signal of approval of Bateman’s message.

Brown, 25, was Baltimore’s previous first-round wide receiver selection, taken 25th overall in the 2019 NFL draft. On a draft-day trade last year, the Ravens shipped Brown to the Cardinals for the No. 23 overall selection in the 2022 NFL draft. The Ravens then moved down out of that selection and eventually picked center Tyler Lindbaum with the 25th selection.

What did Ravens GM Eric DeCosta actually say about the team’s track record of drafting wide receivers?

On Wednesday, when speaking to reporters at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis, DeCosta was asked about the team’s struggles to get consistent production at wide receiver.

‘If I had an answer, that would probably mean I would have some better receivers,’ DeCosta said, according to The Vault podcast, which discusses the Ravens. ‘We’re gonna keep swinging. There have been some guys that have been successful players for us that were draft picks. We’ve never really hit on that All-Pro type of guy, which is disappointing, but it’s not for a lack of effort. 

‘It’s one of those anomalies that I really can’t explain, other than to say that we’re not going to stop trying. We’re gonna keep swinging and hopefully at one of these points, we’re gonna hit the ball out of the park.’

What did Rashod Bateman mean about the Ravens keeping players healthy?

Baltimore has faced criticism for its handling of injuries in recent seasons. In 2021, the Ravens had an unusually high number of players land on injured reserve. In an unprecedented survey, the NFL Players Association published report cards for every team in the NFL, grading them on several categories. In one of those, strength staff, 30 of the 32 teams were rated favorably. The two exceptions were the Falcons and the Ravens, who were given the lowest grade, an F-. By comparison, the 29th ranked team, the Jets, scored a B.

The NFLPA reported that the Ravens ‘were even significantly below’ Atlanta. The Ravens recently fired Steve Saunders as the head strength coach.

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