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Former Vice President Mike Pence on Saturday spoke to Iranian anti-regime activists in Washington, D.C., and warned that the Biden administration’s efforts to re-enter the embattled 2015 nuclear deal would pave a path ‘in gold’ to a nuclear weapon.

Pence spoke at an event held in the nation’s capital by the Organization of Iranian-American Communities, which calls for a democratic, secular, non-nuclear Iranian republic, and hailed the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy toward the regime in Tehran. 

That administration abandoned the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and re-imposed sanctions that had been lifted as part of the accord and also took out top General Qasem Soleimani in an air strike.

The Biden administration has changed course and has sought to re-enter the deal with Iran, and talks were revived in Vienna in 2021. However, those talks faltered last year amid what the U.S. blamed on intransigence from the regime — now led by hardline President Ebrahim Raisi. However, the administration has not abandoned the intent to re-enter the deal.

‘On the day we left office, the Iranian regime was more isolated than ever before,’ Pence recounted, but he said that the Biden administration is ‘threatening to unravel all of the progress we made in marginalizing the tyrannical regime in Tehran.’

Pence called the push to re-engage on the deal, including waiving sanctions, ‘ill-advised and unwise’ and said that a new deal would not solve the instability in the Middle East or stop the regime’s ambitions for a nuke.

‘A renewed nuclear deal won’t lead to peace and stability. It will lead to more terrorism, death and destruction, and destabilize the region,’ he said. ‘A renewed deal won’t block Iran’s path to a nuclear bomb, it will pave it in gold.’

The regime has been rocked by months of protests across the country in the wake of the death of Mahsa Amini, who had been arrested by morality police for not covering her head. Pence said the regime was weaker than it ever had been and that the resistance movement is stronger than it ever had been, describing it as ‘an engine for change from within during the uprisings and continued protests.’

Pence also called for the prosecution of Raisi, who has been tied to human rights abuses, including the mass execution of political prisoners in 1988.

‘He must be removed from office by the people of Iran and prosecuted for crimes against humanity and genocide,’ he said.

Pence’s speech marks the latest sign of support from Washington, D.C., for the resistance movement. Pence has previously visited the base of the National Council of Resistance of Iran in Albania, and this week lawmakers announced that a majority in the House now back a resolution backing the movement’s goals.

Ahead of Pence, NCRI President-elect Maryam Rajavi said that the situation in Iran would never return to how it was before the uprising.

‘The regime has become weaker and faces more defections,’ she said. ‘It cannot prevent the explosive situation, because that needs fundamental reforms, which will in turn lead to the regime’s overthrow.’

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The Biden administration is reportedly poised to approve a massive northern Alaska oil drilling project that is forecast to create thousands of jobs and 600 million barrels of oil over its 30-year lifespan, sending eco-warriors into a frenzy about the ‘existential threat’ the project poses to the climate.

Senior administration officials have signed off on three of the five drilling sites proposed by oil company ConocoPhillips as part of its Willow Project in the National Petroleum Reserve located in North Slope Borough, Alaska, Bloomberg first reported Friday evening. ConocoPhillips had previously stated that, for the project to retain economic viability, the federal government would need to approve at least three of the sites.

In a tweet calling for Biden to abandon support for the plan, the Sierra Club, which has a self-described mission to ‘educate and enlist humanity to protect and restore the quality of the natural and human environment,’ called the Willow Project a ‘climate disaster waiting to happen.’

‘This MUST not be the case @POTUS. The Willow project is a climate disaster waiting to happen that would devastate wildlife, lands, AK communities, and our climate,’ the environmental group wrote. ‘We need to speed our transition to clean energy, not double-down on oil and gas.’

In another tweet, the Sierra Club called for its supporters to ‘tell [Biden] to stop’ the project.

Greenpeace USA, an environmental group working to ‘expose global environmental problems and promote solutions that are essential to a green and peaceful future,’ claimed in a series of social media posts that the project would serve as an ‘egregious expansion of fossil fuel extraction’ and ‘be a betrayal to the millions of young people and local residents who have raised their voices against it.’

In agreement, People vs. Fossil Fuels, a coalition of over 1,200 activists ‘working together towards a common goal of ending the era of fossil fuels,’ called for its supporters to ‘FLOOD’ the social media accounts belonging to Biden in an effort to ‘make it clear he must listen to our voices and #StopWillow.’

Democrat presidential candidate Marianne Williamson and Sen. Ed Markey, D-Mass., have also expressed their opposition to the project.

‘So much for that ‘existential threat,’’ Williamson, who announced this month that she was entering the 2024 race for the White House, wrote in a tweet.

Markey suggested the approval of the Willow Project would be a move in ‘the wrong direction.’

‘We cannot allow the Willow Project to move forward. We must build a clean energy future—not return to a dark, fossil-fueled past,’ Markey wrote in a tweet. ‘It doesn’t matter which way this oil flows, it’s the wrong direction.’

Oregon Democrat Sen. Jeff Merkley also bashed the reported move by the Biden administration to give the go-ahead to the Willow Project, calling the move by Biden a ‘betrayal’ of his promises.

‘If this story is right, it’s a complete betrayal of Biden’s promise not to allow more drilling and a complete catastrophe to rein in climate chaos,’ Merkley wrote in a tweet. ‘You can’t ask other countries to forego their fossil fuels if we keep greenlighting projects here in America.’

Merkley also suggested in a separate post that fifty years from now, the move to approve the drilling project ‘may well be viewed as the knife that killed any possibility of international agreement to control runaway temperature increases with devastating consequences.’

Dozens of other activists weighed in on the administration’s reported approval of the project, with several claiming that it would have an impact on Democratic support for Biden moving forward.

‘The Willow Project, an $8bn oil project, is an existential threat to Alaskan Native communities. Biden is expected to approve it to fill the gap left by a US-led Western boycott of Russian oil and gas. US carbon imperialism starts at home,’ Indigenous organizer and journalist Nick Estes wrote in a tweet.

‘A ‘climate President’ wouldn’t approve the Willow Project,’ Nina Turner, a senior fellow at the New School’s Institute on Race, Power and Political Economy, said of Biden in a tweet.

Bill McKibben – an author and environmentalist who founded 350, a self-described ‘international movement of ordinary people working to end the age of fossil fuels and build a world of community-led renewable energy for all’ – also took aim at the Biden administration’s likely approval of the Willow Project, claiming it is a ‘world-class carbon bomb.’

‘Supposedly the White House is close to approving a vast new oil complex – the #WillowProject  – in Alaska. One hopes that they’ll rethink: it’s a world-class carbon bomb, and base voters young and old just hate it. Jimmy Carter helped preserve Alaska – over to you, Joe Biden,’ McKibben wrote in a tweet.

Aidan DiMarco, president of the New Jersey Young Progressive Democrats, said he will relinquish his support for Biden if the Willow Project reaches fruition, writing in a tweet that he ‘will not be supporting, voting, or volunteering for him if he’s the nominee’ should the project receive the president’s approval.

‘I’m a proud Democrat, but I refuse to vote for ANY Democrat that pushes us in the wrong direction when it comes to tackling the climate crisis. I want to live on a habitable planet, and I will vote for a candidate that is fighting for my right to live on a healthy planet,’ DiMarco wrote in a separate tweet.

Environmentalist Dallas Goldtooth also weighed in on this issue through Twitter, concluding that ‘NO ONE can tell me @JoeBiden takes climate serious IF he approves the #WillowProject.’

‘If he approves this massive climate bomb – he has utterly failed. This will be HIS legacy to a burning planet,’ Goldtooth claimed.

Earlier this month, actor Mark Ruffalo called for the Biden administration to abandon the drilling initiative, referring to it as a ‘ticking carbon bomb’ as he urged his followers to press Biden and Interior Secretary Deb Haaland to reject the project.

‘This $8B oil drilling project is a ticking carbon bomb with damaging effects on Indigenous communities and wildlife,’ Ruffalo wrote in a post shared to Twitter. ‘Please send your letters to @POTUS and @SecDebHaaland to stop The Willow Project before March 6.’

Alaska GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan said Monday that Alaskan natives feel that President Biden’s administration, along with environmental groups that are looking to stifle an arctic oil project, are bringing a ‘second wave of colonialism’ to the Last Frontier.

Sullivan, along with Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski and Alaska Democrat Rep. Mary Peltola, has expressed support for the project. Sullivan also said that it has received ‘very strong support’ from the region’s indigenous people, but that the Biden administration has ignored those comments.

‘What they’re starting to say is, these lower-48 environmental groups who are now doing this big campaign against Willow are undertaking, really, the second wave of colonialism,’ he said. ‘This is from our native leaders. Eco-colonialism, where they’re coming up and telling Alaskan natives: ‘Here’s how you should live your life.’ It’s ridiculous.’

Following reports of the Willow Project’s expected approval, the White House said the decision has not been finalized.

‘No final decisions have been made — anyone who says there has been a final decision is wrong,’ White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.

Fox News’ Thomas Catenacci contributed to this article.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Oregon lawmakers are aiming to make the state the second in the nation to mandate climate change lessons for K-12 public school students, further fueling U.S. culture wars in education.

Dozens of Oregon high schoolers submitted support of the bill, saying they care about climate change deeply. Some teachers and parents say teaching climate change could help the next generation better confront it, but others want schools to focus on reading, writing and math after test scores plummeted post-pandemic.

Schools across the U.S. have found themselves at the center of a politically charged battle over curriculum and how matters such as gender, sex education and race should be taught — or whether they should be taught at all.

One of the bill’s chief sponsors, Democratic Sen. James Manning, said even elementary students have told him climate change is important to them.

‘We’re talking about third and fourth graders having a vision to understand how this world is changing rapidly,’ he said at a Thursday state Capitol hearing in Salem.

Connecticut has the only U.S. state law requiring climate change instruction, and it’s possibly the first time such a bill has been introduced in Oregon, according to legislative researchers. Lawmakers in California and New York are considering similar bills.

Manning’s bill requires every Oregon school district to develop climate change curriculum within three years, addressing ecological, societal, cultural, political and mental health aspects of climate change.

It’s unclear how Oregon would enforce the law. Manning told The Associated Press that he is going to scrap an unpopular proposal for financial penalties against districts that don’t comply, but didn’t say whether another plan was coming.

For now, the bill doesn’t say how many hours of instruction are needed for the state’s education department to approve a district’s curriculum.

Most states have learning standards — largely set by state education boards — that include climate change, although their extent varies by state. Twenty states and Washington, D.C., have specifically adopted what are known as the Next Generation Science Standards, which call for middle schoolers to learn about climate science and high schoolers to receive lessons on how human activity affects the climate.

New Jersey’s education standards are believed to be the most wide-ranging. For the first time this school year, climate change is not just part of science instruction, but all subjects, like art, English and even PE.

Several teens testified at the state Capitol in favor of the bill. No students have submitted opposition testimony.

‘In 100 years are we going to have to teach our children what trees are because there aren’t any left? It’s a thought that horrifies me,’ said high school sophomore Gabriel Burke. ‘My generation needs to learn about climate change from a young age for our survival.’

Some teachers testified in support of the bill. But others say they’re already struggling to address pandemic learning losses. Adding climate change on top of reading, writing, math, science and social studies is ‘a heavy lift that will end up coming down on the backs of teachers,’ said Kyler Pace, a grade school teacher in Sherwood, Oregon.

Recent surveys conducted by Columbia University’s Teachers College and the Yale Program on Climate Communication suggest that a majority of Americans think that climate change and global warming should be taught in school. But climate change is still seen by some as a politically divisive issue, and Pace said that mandating its instruction could inject more tension into schools.

Nicole De Graff, a self-described parents’ rights advocate and former GOP legislative candidate, testified that her children, ages 9, 15, and 16, are ‘done being overwhelmed with things that are fear-based, like COVID.’

In Pennington, New Jersey, wellness teacher Suzanne Horsley aims for age-appropriate lessons on what can be a daunting topic. In her K-2 physical education classes at Toll Gate Grammar School, she plays a game with pretend trees, using bean bags representing carbon to show students that fewer trees leads to higher levels of atmospheric carbon.

In Horsley’s lesson plan for teens, students learn how climate change disproportionately impacts low-income communities. They look at air quality maps in areas with higher industrial activity or car traffic.

There is a push for students to feel as though they have some ability to influence their world, Horsley said. ‘Whether it’s conserving water or finding ways to plant more trees or take care of the trees that already exist … they want to feel empowered.’

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Five Senate Democrats could retire ahead of the 2024 elections in America, relinquishing their seats to fresh faces as Republicans seek to gain control of the upper chamber.

Following the retirement announcements of two prominent Senate Democrats earlier this year, the question remains over which other senators will step aside and forgo what could be a potentially bruising round of elections for the party as Democrats seeks to defend a majority of the seats up for grabs next cycle.

Last month, Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., became the latest senator to announce she would not seek re-election in 2024, following in the footsteps on Sen. Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., who announced last month that she would relinquish her seat in the upper chamber when her term expires in 2025.

A total of 34 Senate seats — 20 currently held by Democrats, 11 currently held by Republicans, and 3 currently held by independents — will be up for grabs next cycle. The three independent senators currently caucus with Democrats in the Senate, meaning Democrats will be tasked with defending 23 of the 34 seats in 2024 if they wish to maintain their majority in the legislative body.

Of the 20 Democrat-held seats up for election, seven are in states won by former President Trump in either 2016 or 2020. Republicans, however, will not be defending any seat in a state won by President Biden, unlike the 2022 midterms where the most competitive races were in states Biden won: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona.

West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin

Sen. Joe Manchin, perhaps the most vulnerable senator in 2024, has not yet announced his re-election intentions. Trump won West Virginia by a whopping 39 percentage points in the 2020 election, making the seat a key target for a Republicans.

Manchin played an instrumental role in getting the Inflation Reduction Act across the finish line and may face a political price for his perceived capitulation in a predominantly working-class state with the second-largest leading coal industry in the nation.

Rep. Alex Mooney, the five-term West Virginia congressman, announced his intent to run for the Senate seat just a week after the November 2022 midterm elections.

West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey has also been eyeing Manchin’s seat for some time and hinted he was considering running again. After a narrow loss to Manchin in the state’s 2018 Senate race by just 3 percentage points, Morrisey said in November he is ‘seriously evaluating’ a gubernatorial run or launching a second bid for the Senate in 2024.

Current West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, a Republican, also told Fox News in January that he is ‘very interested’ in pursuing a 2024 Senate bid for the seat, adding extra fuel to Manchin’s contemplation on whether to seek re-election.

Wisconsin Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who has served as the junior senator from Wisconsin since 2013, has not declared whether she will seek re-election in the state won by Trump in 2016 by less than a percentage point.

Baldwin, according to Bloomberg, said last month that she is ‘planning an announcement later in the spring, and working very hard.’

Following the state’s 2022 Senate election, in which Sen. Ron Johnson defeated Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes by a little more than 25,000 votes, Baldwin, should she seek re-election, would be faced with a number of concerns from conservative voters in the state.

Baldwin, the first openly gay senator in the United States, has garnered respect from members of her own party in a variety of ways, most notably from her work on the Affordable Care Act. In her last two Senate elections, Baldwin won by unexpected margins. In 2012, she won by nearly six percentage points. In 2018, she won by a little more than 10 points.

Johnson’s win over Barnes has boosted momentum in the state for both major political parties, and now the GOP is seeking to build on that momentum in an effort to oust Baldwin, who formerly served in the U.S. House for six years.

Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey

Sen. Bob Casey announced in January that he had been diagnosed with prostate cancer in December, casting doubt on whether he will seek re-election in 2024 — though he has not yet announced his official decision.

Despite the diagnoses and concern over how it could have an impact on his congressional career, Casey, who has served in the Senate since 2007, underwent surgery for his prostate cancer last month and his office said that no further treatment is needed.

Casey, the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Robert Casey Sr., defeated his GOP challenger, Lou Barletta, in the 2018 Senate election by 13 points.

Following Republican nominee Mehmet Oz’s loss in the state’s 2022 Senate election to Democrat John Fetterman, Republicans are seeking redemption. David McCormick, a former hedge fund CEO who narrowly lost the GOP primary to Oz, is considering another run, according to a November report from Bloomberg.

Former Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano is also weighing whether to enter the Keystone State’s Senate race, telling Politico this week that he is ‘praying’ about a potential Senate run in 2024. Mastriano’s political ambitions, however, were dismissed by Montana GOP Sen. Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

‘We need somebody who can win a primary and a general election. His last race demonstrated he can’t win a general,’ Daines said of Mastriano, according to one reporter.

Delaware Democratic Sen. Tom Carper

Sen. Tom Carper, the senior senator from Delaware, currently holds a seat that is viewed by many as a safe seat for Democrats to maintain control of in the 2024 elections.

But that safety net does not mean retirement is out of the question for Carper, a former military officer who has represented Delaware in the Senate since 2001.

While Carper, 76, has not officially declared whether he will seek re-election next cycle, he said recently that he is focused on doing ‘what I need to so I can run for re-election and be successful,’ according to Bloomberg.

Carper, according to the outlet, did not give a clear date as to when he would make a decision, but said he will announce his intention ‘sometime this year.’

Maryland Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin

Sen. Ben Cardin, who has represented Maryland in the Senate since 2007, is undecided on whether to seek re-election in 2024.

Cardin’s seat, like that of Carper’s, is viewed as another safe seat for Democrats in the next cycle. But whether Carper will hold onto it or pass it to another aspiring candidate remains unclear.

A spokesperson for the senator told Fox News Digital late last month that Cardin, 79, has ‘indicated that the decision likely will be announced’ this month.

2024 Senate race ratings from the Cook Political Report, which were released in late January, listed eight seats currently held by Democrats or independents as leaning Democratic or toss-ups.

The three seats rated as a ‘toss up’ between Democrats and Republicans in the 2024 elections, according to the report, include those currently held by Arizona independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Ohio Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, and West Virginia Democrat Sen. Joe Manchin.

Sophia Slacik contributed to this article.

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Reports the Biden administration is considering reinstating migrant family detention at the southern border sparked outrage from immigration activists, but former Trump administration officials are skeptical about how useful such policy initiatives from the Biden administration would be if implemented.

‘It’s just 180 degrees from what their strategy has been. Since day one, their strategy has been the antithesis of detention,’ former acting Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Mark Morgan told Fox News Digital. ‘They view that as inhumane and not something that they support. So the fact that there’s talk about detaining families again, I’m very skeptical.’

Multiple outlets reported Monday that the administration is considering reviving the detention of migrant families who cross the border illegally. 

Such a move would mark a significant reversal for the administration, which ended the practice in 2021 and instead released migrant family units into the U.S. interior with notices to appear in court or report to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) office.

A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said in a statement that ‘no decisions have been made as we prepare for the Title 42 public health order to lift.’

The spokesperson was referring to the May 11 halt to Title 42, a Trump-era order enacted at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic that allows for the rapid expulsion of migrants at the southern border for public health reasons. Officials have predicted an additional surge at the border when the order is lifted, and the administration has unveiled a number of measures to counteract such a shift.

The report sparked fury from immigration activists and some Democrats who were appalled at the idea of a potential return to the practice they see as cruel and inhumane.

But Stephen Miller, who served as a senior adviser in the Trump White House and advocated for tougher policies on illegal immigration, was dismissive of the reports.

‘Every decision the administration has made has been for the singular purpose of bringing more illegal immigrants into the United States as quickly as possible,’ he said. ‘If the administration had any actual desire to reduce illegal immigration, rather than continually increasing it, they would reimplement every Trump policy, beginning with Safe Thirds and Remain in Mexico.’

Thomas Homan, who served at the top levels of ICE in both the Obama and Trump administrations, told Fox News Digital he thinks the move is for show. Homan added that unless changes are made to court-imposed restrictions that now limit family detention to just 20 days, meaning families are unlikely to have their asylum cases heard in that time, it was unlikely to make a major difference.

‘I think the election’s coming up. I think it’s all for election purposes. I think it’s all politics,’ he said. ‘Unless we can hold them long enough to see a judge, it impacts border security minimally.’

Homan said that during the Obama administration and before the 20-day limit was imposed, border numbers declined as officials were able to expedite cases and quickly deport migrants. Without a new tighter time frame being changed, cases are unlikely to be able to be heard in that time.

Homan did add that the time in the family residential centers will allow migrants to get medical care, and officials can verify whether a child is part of a family unit or is being trafficked.

‘It gives us time to verify their addresses, verify where they’re going, verify who they’re going to live with. We can make sure we send the notices [to appear] to the right house, give us time to verify their family groups. It gives us time to make sure they’re healthy, that they’re not carrying diseases into the communities,’ Homan said. ‘But unless they have judges to expedite the hearings, it’s not going to have a tremendous impact on border security.’

He also pushed back against claims by activists that detention was cruel, noting that centers had features like Zumba classes and movie screenings, as well as medical care that migrants had sometimes been missing.

‘Many of the childhood vaccinations these children received, they received from us. Many of them saw a dentist for the first time in their life at these facilities. Or a doctor,’ he said. ‘These families go through a very rough journey to this country, and we can take care of the medical needs … and having child psychologists there to talk about some of the things these children might have seen during this journey or, you know, leaving the country and coming to a new country. It was very expensive, but it served a great purpose, I thought.’

Morgan was similarly doubtful asylum hearings would be expedited by a judge at the border, although he suggested a new asylum rule that allows asylum officers to hear cases rather than judges would be used to move them through via what he said would be a ‘rubber stamp.’

‘If that’s not the goal, their goal is then just to alleviate the bad political optics of local NGOs and the border being overwhelmed, and they’re going to push them to these family residential centers that are located in other areas of the border, where they will give them a transition period before they process and release them,’ Morgan said.

He also suggested the new reports could be a sign of the political pressure the Biden administration is facing over a border crisis that is now deep into its third year and has been a constant thorn in its side. Although, the administration has been claiming recent measures it has introduced are working.

‘I think it’s also an indication of how they too can no longer pretend that what is happening under their leadership isn’t a complete colossal failure, period,’ Morgan said.

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On March 7th, we asked “Will the Market Internals Turn More Bearish”?

While we focused mainly on Jerome Powell’s testimony, when he said “if the totality of the data were to indicate that faster tightening is warranted, we would be prepared to increase the pace of rate hikes,” in the same Daily, we featured the long bonds (TLT) and that the chart had a constructive exhaustion gap bottom in play. We went on to write that “the Real Motion indicator shows a positive divergence, as momentum is just under the 50-DMA while price is considerably below its 50-DMA.”

The question asked was, why would the long bonds bottom? Our answer:

“It could mean that while the short-term yields invert, the market is expecting a recession, hence a flight to safety in long bonds. We imagine that, should 20+ year bonds continue to go north, that too could be inflationary.”

We started the year introducing our report, “How to Grow Your Wealth in 2023.” In this Year of the Yin Water Rabbit, we began with:

You Can’t Run with the Hare and Hunt with the Hounds.

Little did we know then, how well this describes the Federal Reserve, the reversal in TLTs and the catalyst of 2023’s biggest dilemma of all — Recession or Stagflation: What Will It Be?

More from the Report: “For 2023 one word and two expressions keep coming up: Chaos, Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole, and Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places.”

Of course, the biggest headline this week in finance is the collapse of SVB and Silvergate. That sounds a lot like Chaos. The full fallout is unknown, but if the market has anything to say about it, both long bonds and gold rallied.

Folks calling for deflation are using Money Supply decline as an example. They are citing “higher for longer” concerning rates. They are talking about the strong labor market.

BUT… that is more of Trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

Five Reasons Folks are Looking for Inflation in All the Wrong Places:

Climate-Natural DisastersFood shortages could prevail-hoarding-sugar prices flyingSocial unrest from high inflation, higher yields, losing credibility (banks, government) CLASSIC example this week.Geopolitics-rising tides of issues-we hope not but be prepared.Government spending/Federal Reserve-what are they going to do now? Print? Save the banks? Keep raising rates creating more liquidity crises?

The chart of the TLTs show price clearing the 50-DMA. That is an unconfirmed phase change to Recuperation. A second consecutive close above will confirm the phase change. Clearly the Leadership indicator tells a story, as bonds well outperform the SPY. And the Real Motion of momentum indicator, already with a positive diversion as mentioned on March 7th, now could stay in gear.

Could the picture reverse next week? Yes. However, to quote the Report: “The lesson we should take from this is not that inflation is destined to move to new highs in the months ahead (after all, nearly 30% of the time, it is, in fact, cresting!), but that we dismiss that possibility at our peril.”

Our Global Macro Quant Model bought gold. Even the algos know what’s up!

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish joined the March 10 closing bell coverage on Yahoo! Finance, which you can see at this link!

Mish goes through the macro through key sectors and commodities in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish joins Mary Ellen McGonagle (of MEM Investment Research) and Erin Swenlin (of DecisionPoint.com) on the March 2023 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Pitch.

Mish talks women in finance for International Women’s Day on Business First AM.

Mish focuses on defense stocks in this appearance on CNBC Asia.

Mish points out a Biotech stock and a Transportation stock to watch if the market settles on Business First AM.

Mish joins Maggie Lake on Real Vision to talk commodities and setups!

Read about Mish’s article about the implications of elevated sugar prices in this article from Kitco!

While the indices remain range bound, Mish shows you several emerging trends on the Wednesday, March 1 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five!

Mish joins Business First AM for Stock Picking Time in this video!

See Mish sit down with Amber Kanwar of BNN Bloomberg to discuss the current market conditions and some picks.

Click here to watch Mish and StockCharts.com’s David Keller join Jared Blikre as they discuss trading, advice to new investors, crypto, and AI on Yahoo Finance.

In her latest video for CMC Markets, MarketGauge’s Mish Schneider shares insights on the gold, the S&P 500 and natural gas and what traders can expect as the markets remain mixed.

Coming Up:

March 13th: Mish on TD Ameritrade with Nicole Petallides

March 14th: F.A.C.E. Forex Analytix with Dale Pinkert

March 16th: The Final Bar with Dave Keller, StockCharts TV

And down on the road

March 20th: Madam Trader Podcast with Ashley Kyle Miller

March 22nd: The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

March 24th: Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg

March 30th: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

March 31st: Festival of Learning Real Vision “Portfolio Doctor”

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): Our trading range theory was 4200-3200–maybe.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 next major support, 182 resistance.Dow (DIA): 310 support, 324 resistance.Nasdaq (QQQ): Unconfirmed bearish phase–confirms if second close under 290.Regional Banks (KRE): Maybe overdone for now, but not necessarily done. 40 target, 55 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): Still in a bullish phase, over 240–maybe a pop for everything.Transportation (IYT): 223 the 200-DMA major support–2nd in strength to SMH.Biotechnology (IBB): Teetering on the 80-month MA at 121.Retail (XRT): Under 64 remains weak–next big support at 56.00.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

While the Banking Sector (KRE) collapsed this week due to the Silvergate and Silicon Valley Bank failures, we can see where participation has been deteriorating for more than a month. The bottom three panels on the chart below shows how the Percent of Stocks Above the 20/50/200EMAs began to drop rapidly from the beginning of February, and they are now reading 0%, 0%, and 7%.

When price is below an EMA, it pulls it down, and eventually the faster EMA crosses down through the slower EMA. Our Golden Cross and Silver Cross Indexes keep track of these events and display the percent of stocks in an index with the 50EMA above the 200EMA (Golden Cross), and the percent of stocks with the 20EMA above the 50EMA (Silver Cross). Currently the Silver Cross Index (SCI) reads 19%, and the Golden Cross Index (GCI) reads 45%; however, they are doomed to head much lower because Percent of Stocks Above the 20/50/200EMAs are in the basement.

The broader Financial Sector (XLF) is also being impacted by the banks, and the Percent of Stocks Above the 20/50/200EMAs for XLF have tanked and are bound to drag the SCI and GCI lower. Naturally, price will be headed lower as well.

Conclusion: Could the decline of the Banking and Financial Sectors be the beginning of an avalanche that will take out the market? In my opinion, it is not something we should dismiss entirely. There are bubbles in equities, real estate, bonds, pension funds, debt, and crypto. A banking collapse is a good place to kick off a wider disaster. To be clear, I do not claim to know what is going to happen, but it is certainly a good time to be more alert.

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The truncated week remained quite volatile; the markets were all over the place and the week ended on a negative note. The volatility over the last two days was fueled by the testimony of FOMC chief Jerome Powell who showed all the indications of continuing with the hikes; he also stated that the rates may settle higher than expected. The examination of the weekly charts looks devoid of noise as such; however, the trading range for the week stayed at 475 points. Following volatile movement during the week, the headline index finally settled with a net loss of 181.45 points (-1.03%) on a weekly basis.

From a technical perspective, there are a couple of things that warrant our attention. The volatility, as represented by INDIAVIX, surged 10.12% to 13.41 on a weekly note. This level continues to remain towards the lower end. Besides this, NIFTY is now very near to the support zone created by the confluence of two averages. The 50 Week MA is presently at 17350. This is expected to act as a strong support for the index. Apart from this, the 200-DAY MA stands at 17434. This makes the 17300-17450 a strong support zone for the NIFTY. Over the coming week, it would be extremely important for the NIFTY to defend this 150-point zone and not violate it on a closing basis.

The coming week is expected to see a stable start; the levels of 17580 and 17700 are likely to act as potential resistance points. The supports come in at 17300 and 17180 levels. The trading range is likely to stay a bit wider than usual.

The weekly RSI is 45.01; it has marked a new 14-period low which is bearish. However, it is neutral and does not show any divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and remains below the signal line.

The pattern analysis of the weekly charts shows that NIFTY is very near to a confluence area with multiple supports. The index has taken support at a falling trend line; this begins from the high point of 18350 and joins the subsequent lower tops. The NIFTY is also near the 50-Week MA which is currently at 17350. The 100-Week MA is placed at 17026. With the 200-DMA placed at 17434, the zone of 17300-17450 can be viewed as a crucial support zone for the markets.

Despite the surge in INDIA VIX over the past week, it continues to remain near the lower levels. This is something that needs to be watched. Besides this, so long as NIFTY is above the 17300-17450 levels, there are greater possibilities of resumption of an uptrend. That being said, we will also see volatility staying ingrained into the markets. It is also expected that no one sector will dominate the space; the markets are likely to stay highly selective in nature. It would be wise to continue staying invested in low-beta stocks. Also, prudence would be to keep leveraged exposures at modest levels. A cautiously positive approach is advised for the day.

Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed

The analysis of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) shows NIFTY IT, PSE, Auto Index, and FMCG sector indices rolling steadily inside the leading quadrant of the RRG along with the Midcap 100 Index. These groups will continue to post resilient performance and may relatively outperform the broader NIFTY500 index.

The NIFTY Infrastructure index is inside the weakening quadrant; however, it is seen rolling back towards the leading quadrant. Apart from this Financial Services, Banknifty, Metals, and PSU Bank indices are inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Services sector index and the Commodities index have rolled inside the lagging quadrant. Besides that, we have Energy, Realty, and Media indices also languishing inside the lagging quadrant. These groups may continue to relatively underperform the broader markets.

Nifty Consumption Index is inside the improving quadrant; this may show resilient performance going ahead. The Nifty Pharma index is also inside the improving quadrant but it is seen giving up on its relative momentum front.

Important Note: RRG™ charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

Chartists considering a trend-following strategy can use the Trend Composite to identify trend signals and then turn to the ATR Trailing Stop for an exit strategy. A bearish Trend Composite signal could also be used as an exit strategy, but these signals usually trigger later than the ATR Trailing Stop and result in larger losses. Today’s commentary will show examples with the Finance SPDR (XLF) and the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX).

The first chart shows the Finance SPDR (XLF) with the Trend Composite turning positive (green) on November 9th and the ATR Trailing Stop starting the next day, which is when an entry order could be placed. The Trend Composite aggregates trend signals in five trend-following indicators. The ATR Trailing Stop (blue line) is 5 ATR values below the highest close since the trend signals. Note that these two indicators are part of the TIP Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP.

XLF triggered this trailing stop with a sharp decline on Thursday. This trade resulted in a loss of around 6%. Note that the Trend Composite is still positive. The next chart shows the Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) with the Trend Composite turning positive on January 23rd and the ATR Trailing Stop starting the next day. SOXX is down a fraction since January 24th, but remains above the ATR Trailing Stop. SOXX is still in plan and holding up better than XLF right now.

TrendInvestorPro is currently working with three quantified strategies for trading ETFs. The All Weather Strategy uses the Trend Composite and StochClose rank for signals. We have a Trend-Momentum Strategy for 74 stock-based ETFs and a Mean-Reversion Strategy for a broad list of 275 ETFs. Each strategy comes with a detailed article, quantified results and signal tables. Click here to learn more.

The Trend Composite, ATR Trailing Stop and nine other indicators are part of the TrendInvestorPro Indicator Edge Plugin for StockCharts ACP. Click here to learn more and take your analysis process to the next level.

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A group of Republican House committee chairmen are sounding the alarm over the U.S. intelligence community’s annual threat assessment released earlier this week that warned of ‘complex’ threats from China, Russia, North Korea and others.

In a joint statement issued Friday, House Permanent Select Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rep. Mark Green, R-Tenn., Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, and Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala., argued the nation was at a ‘tipping point’ when dealing with outside threats to national security.

‘As a nation, we are facing a myriad of threats like never before, from foreign malign actors seeking to undermine our way of life to increasingly aggressive adversaries attempting to displace the United States as a leading power on the world stage,’ the chairmen wrote. 

‘This ODNI threat assessment only reinforces the fact that China, Russia, Iran, al-Qaeda, ISIS, and North Korea all present grave threats to our national security that demand sustained attention from Congress,’ they wrote.

The statement went on to describe the numerous national security threats facing the U.S., including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the ‘growing confidence’ of al Qaeda following the fall of the Afghan government to the Taliban, the resurgence of ISIS, the espionage and military buildup by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), and the frequent missile tests conducted by North Korea.

It also noted the ‘devastating opioid crisis’ being fueled by the fentanyl production and trafficking by ‘nefarious actors.’ 

‘It is evident from this threat assessment that the tactics the CCP uses to accomplish its goals have not worked entirely in its favor, leaving our nation at a tipping point. The CCP must not be underestimated, but the U.S. can still triumph in a peer-to-peer competition with the CCP if our government acts in a swift and unified manner,’ they wrote.

‘Ultimately, this threat assessment only reinforces the concerns we have about the U.S. threat posture under the Biden administration. Our committees will continue working together to combat these threats and strengthen our national security, while demanding the Biden administration hold our adversaries accountable in response to acts of aggression,’ they added.

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