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A conservative Republican and a progressive Democrat in the U.S. Senate are introducing legislation on Wednesday to replace the Federal Reserve’s internal watchdog with one appointed by the president, aiming to tighten bank supervision following the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.

Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Elizabeth Warren blamed the collapse of the two banks on regulatory failures at the U.S. central bank, which has operated up to now with an internal inspector general who reports to the Fed board.

‘Our legislation fixes that by establishing a presidentially-appointed, Senate-confirmed inspector general at the Fed, like every other major government agency,’ Scott said in a joint release with Warren.

Warren said this month’s banking upheavals ‘have underscored the urgent need for a truly independent inspector general to hold Fed officials accountable for any lapses or wrongdoing.’

The Federal Reserve was not immediately available for comment.

The legislation was due to be introduced later on Wednesday. According to a four-page legislative text, the measure would replace the Fed’s inspector general with an independent IG who would oversee the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The CFPB is an independent bureau within the central bank that is responsible for consumer protection within the financial sector.

Warren played a key role in setting up the CFPB under Democratic President Barack Obama following the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The U.S. Supreme Court last month agreed to hear a case challenging the CFPB’s funding structure, which some conservatives argue violates the U.S. Constitution,

The cooperation between Scott and Warren, who usually inhabit opposite poles of the political spectrum, could be the start of a new bipartisan push on banking.

Warren is a leading voice on financial matters. She sits on both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Finance Committee, and chairs subcommittees of both panels.

Scott, a former Florida governor, is a hardline conservative who has positioned himself as a leading fiscal hawk.

The show of bipartisanship poses a stark contrast with the partisan standoff between Republicans and Democratic President Joe Biden over the nation’s $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, which has raised concerns in the financial markets about a prolonged debate that could damage the U.S. economy.

Both Republicans and Democrats have pledged tighter oversight of banking regulators following the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which were followed by billions of dollars in losses for financial stocks.

‘We may end up in one of these strange-bedfellows situations,’ said Chris Brown, a banking lobbyist and former staffer on the House of Representatives’ Financial Services Committee, which oversees the banking industry.

‘I do think there’s overarching concern about what happened here,’ he said.

House Financial Services Committee Chairman Patrick McHenry, a North Carolina Republican, and the panel’s top Democrat, Maxine Waters, have jointly scheduled a March 29 hearing on the banking system that will present testimony from officials with the Fed and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC).

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A powerful California Democrat who recently helped kill a Republican-backed state bill that would’ve increased criminal penalties for those found guilty of various forms of sexual assault, including rape, is staying quiet amid widespread backlash for opposing the measure.

Assembly Member Reggie Jones-Sawyer, chair of the California Assembly’s Public Safety Committee, along with the rest of the panel’s Democrats voted last week against Bill 229, which would classify domestic violence, human trafficking, and several sex offenses as a violent crime in the state.

As a result, the bill failed to make it out of committee, despite the committee’s two Republicans voting in support of the legislation.

Jones-Sawyer didn’t respond to Fox News Digital’s latest request for comment after similarly not responding to one last week.

The successful effort to kill the bill received backlash, both in the media and online.

‘This week, CA Democrats killed a GOP bill to increase penalties for domestic violence, human trafficking & other sex crimes. Moments later, they approved a Dem bill to impose sentence enhancements on theft of property above $275k,’ tweeted Emily Hoeven, a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. ‘If Dems aren’t going to show ideological consistency in their votes, they owe it to us to allow a wider swath of ideas to be robustly debated. Their party, which controls a legislative supermajority, has not come close to solving CA’s problems on its own.’

Hoeven was referring to the fact that shortly after Democrats on the Public Safety Committee killed Assembly Bill 229, they passed a separate measure to enhance sentences for people convicted of taking, damaging, or destroying property worth more than $275,000.

‘Doesn’t really make sense to me why Capitol Democrats don’t feel like domestic violence and human trafficking should be a violent crime, but damaging property is worthy of harsher penalties,’ Assembly Member Joe Patterson, the Republican who introduced AB229, told Fox News Digital last week. ‘Their priorities are inconsistent at best.’

Ana Fuentes, a former photographer for the New York Times, Los Angeles Times, and Associated Press, retweeted Hoeven’s comments, writing a bill to increase penalties for violent offenders deserved more attention.

‘The bill deserved serious consideration — not only b/c it would amend Calif penal code to classify domestic violence as the violent crime that it is, but also b/c it could help the state reduce mass shootings, which research shows are overwhelmingly committed by domestic abusers,’ she tweeted, quoting from Hoeven’s column.

‘According to [California Democrats,] rape is not a violent act,’ added George Andrews, chief of staff to the California Assembly Republican Caucus. ‘Victims don’t matter & prison time is worthless/racist. Let’s just hand out parking tickets to criminals who commit sexual assault because incarceration hurts feelings.’

Under California law, committing a ‘violent felony’ enhances the punishment for crimes in accordance with the state’s Three Strikes Law, which significantly increases the prison sentences of people convicted of felonies who have been previously convicted of a violent or serious felony. For those already found guilty of two violent or serious felony offenses, a third conviction necessitates a prison sentence of 25 years to life.

Patterson’s bill would expand the crimes that are considered violent felonies, thereby increasing the punishments for those convicted of such crimes. Among the several crimes listed are domestic violence, human trafficking, and a host of sex crimes such as rape of an unconscious or incapacitated person. Under current law, human trafficking, for example, is defined as a non-serious and non-violent crime.

‘I am disgusted to announce that [AB229], a measure to make sexual assault a violent felony, failed on a party-line vote in the #CALeg Assembly Public Safety Committee,’ tweeted Republican Assembly Member Tom Lackey. ‘Please explain to me why isn’t rape violent in California?’

While Jones-Sawyer didn’t respond to Fox News Digital, he outlined his views on the matter at last week’s committee hearing.

‘You’re trying to say, ‘If we go back to three strikes, we will stop all crime,” he told Patterson. ‘We’ve already proven that doesn’t work.’

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Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, told journalist Piers Morgan he believes Russian President Vladimir Putin is a ‘war criminal.’

DeSantis made his thoughts on Putin known in his exclusive Fox Nation interview with Morgan for his show ‘Piers Morgan Uncensored’ set to hit the airwaves on Wednesday.

‘What is your view of Putin?’ Morgan asked DeSantis in the interview. 

‘I think he’s got grand ambitions,’ he said, ‘I think he’s hostile to the United States, but I think the thing that we’ve seen is he doesn’t have the conventional capability to realize his ambitions. And so, he’s basically a gas station with a bunch of nuclear weapons and one of the things we could be doing better is utilizing our own energy resources in the US.

DeSantis’ dubbing of Putin as a war criminal comes after he rattled establishment Republicans by saying the U.S.’ interest in the Ukraine War isn’t ‘vital.’

‘While the U.S. has many vital national interests… becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them,’ DeSantis told Fox News’ Tucker Carlson.

Noting that ‘peace’ should be the objective in the war, the popular Sunshine State governor insisted the U.S. ‘should not provide assistance that could require the deployment of American troops or enable Ukraine to engage in offensive operations beyond its borders,’ adding that providing F-16s and long-range missiles would be ‘off the table.’

DeSantis also noted that American ‘citizens are also entitled to know how the billions of U.S. taxpayer dollars are being utilized in Ukraine’ and knocked regime change policy as being ‘popular among the D.C. foreign policy interventionists,’ suggesting Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s successor ‘would likely be even more ruthless.’

The pair’s interview will cover several topics, including potential 2024 matchups, the Florida governor’s comparison to former President Trump, and the former president’s possible indictment.

‘People have been scathing, they said you’re a housetrained Donald Trump,’ Morgan asked. ‘You’re Diet Coke, he’s full Coke. You’ve heard all this stuff. What are the differences between?’

‘Well I think there’s a few things. I mean obviously you know the approach to covid was different, I mean I would have fired someone like Fauci,’ DeSantis responded. ‘I think that he got way to big for his britches and I think he did a lot of damage.’

‘I also think, just in general, that my approach to leadership, you know I get personnel in the government who have the agenda of the people who share our agenda,’ the GOP governor said. ‘You bring another agenda in, you’re gone. We’re just not going to have that.’

‘The way we run the government I think is, no daily drama, focus on the big picture, and put points on the board, I think that’s something very important,’ DeSantis added.

Morgan also asked DeSantis what his favorite Trump nickname is after the former president began referring to him as ‘Ron DeSanctimonious,’ ‘Meatball Ron,’ and others. 

DeSantis became the next in a long line of political opponents to be given nicknames by Trump. The former president famously dubbed President Biden ‘Sleepy Joe,’ Democrat Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren ‘Pocahontas’ after her falsely claimed Native American ancestry, and independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as ‘Crazy Bernie.’

‘I don’t know how to spell ‘sanctimonious,’’ DeSantis quipped. ‘I don’t really know what it means, but I kinda like it. It’s long, it’s got a lot of vowels. We’ll go with that, that’s fine.’

‘You can call me whatever just as long as you also call me a winner because that’s what we’ve been able to do in Florida,’ the Florida governor continued. ‘Is put a lot of points on the board and really take this state to the next level.’

Morgan also asked DeSantis — who has not officially announced a run for president but told Morgan to ‘stay tuned’ — if he could beat President Biden.

‘Yeah, I think so,’ DeSantis said.

Viers can catch the full interview Thursday at 9pm on Piers Morgan Uncensored on Fox Nation. 

Fox News Digital’s Kyle Morris contributed reporting.

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After the 2022 midterm election, political observers thought many congressional Republicans would finally abandon former President Donald Trump.

If anything, a pending indictment of the former president seemed to only solidify the resolve of many Republicans to align themselves with Trump. 

After Rep. Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., finally secured the House speaker’s gavel on the 15th ballot in a post-witching hour vote, the former president was one of the first people he thanked.

A cadre of House Republicans is now backing investigations into the 2020 election. Others want a probe into the Jan. 6 riot and the treatment of Jan. 6 defendants. The release of additional video footage from Capitol security cameras reignited a debate about what went down that day.

But word that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg may indict the former president really prompted House Republicans to close ranks around Trump.

‘It’s very concerning,’ said Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas. ‘I think that Kevin McCarthy will have an investigation on this.’

McCarthy infused the House into the prospective indictment of the former president shortly after Trump suggested that authorities would ‘arrest’ him on Tuesday. McCarthy quickly sent out a tweet asking the House to probe the motivations and potential communications by Bragg.

By Monday, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, demanded answers from Bragg about money spent on a possible prosecution. 

‘The Federal District of New York (said) this wasn’t something they were going to pursue. The previous District Attorney (said) this is something they weren’t going to pursue. And even this District Attorney said (he) wasn’t going to pursue it. And then what happened? President Trump announces he’s running for re-election and, ‘Shazam!’, now we’re going to pursue it,’ thundered Jordan.

Rep. Mark Alford, R-Mo., sought two audiences with Trump in recent days — including a fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. Alford’s view of Trump is emblematic of Republicans who stand foursquare behind the former president. 

‘We need the president back behind that Resolute Desk. Who’s going to take control? Who’s going to steer us to greatness?’ asked Alford. ‘I think President Trump is going to do that. I think (the possible indictment) is going to be a minor distraction.’

This is the challenge facing congressional Republicans. How much do they align themselves with Trump for their own political benefit — or even to gin up the base and Trump loyalists? And how much do they try to put distance between themselves and the former president?

Some Republicans concede privately that Trump’s possible legal troubles are bad for the GOP. But few will say much about that publicly. Silence is apparently golden. A Trump prosecution again makes the former president the center of attention. His gravitational political pull remains unmatched, sucking in other political star systems, even if they think it’s better to head the other way.

And so, what is the political universe talking about? Trump and how Bragg may wrong him — even if some Republicans think it’s best to move on.

House Republicans buzzed privately behind closed doors about a possible indictment during their annual policy retreat this week in Orlando, Florida. However, McCarthy tried to downplay the rhubarb about a possible indictment, attempting to steer the conversation to energy production and how he was reforming the House. The speaker lectured reporters when they asked about Trump’s shadow looming over the conference. 

‘I know you have asked me this question several times all during this issues conference. And then you’ll come back (with) ‘It dominates the conference.’ No. We are not talking about this in our conference. You’re just asking about it. So it only dominates your asking,’ he said.

Other Republicans tried to focus on policy, suspecting the Trump saga will blow over — even if most Trump sagas never truly blow over. 

‘This will be the kind of thing that gobbles up the political headlines for a week. Maybe a month. Or maybe longer,’ said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D. ‘We can be more focused on securing the border. Balancing the budget and getting ready for our strategic competition with China.’ 

A week? A month?

While the former president’s latest legal issue may pose an internal conundrum for Republicans, the GOP knows a possible indictment riles up Trump loyalists and ignites the GOP base. Most Republicans continue to follow the ’12th Commandment’ of Republican politics. Late President Ronald Reagan created what GOPers christened the ’11th Commandment’ during his 1966 campaign for California governor: ‘Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.’ The ’12th Commandment’ for Republicans might be not crossing Trump, lest he excoriate you at a rally or call you ‘Ron DeSanctimonious.’ 

Considering the present political environment, most Republicans are willing to stand behind the former president.

‘If the defendant wasn’t Donald Trump, this wouldn’t be brought by a DA,’ said Rep. Kelly Armstrong, R-N.D. ‘I think we understand unfairness. We understand politicization.’

Republicans also converted the latest legal battle facing Trump into a political wedge issue. GOPers often harp on crime problems in big cities run by Democrats. The party targets what it believes are lenient prosecutors who are ‘soft on crime.’ 

The fact that New York, the biggest city in the nation, is run by Democrats and sees spiking crime is a political trifecta for Republicans — to say nothing of their opportunity to target Bragg.

‘We see crimes not being prosecuted not only in New York City, but across the country by progressive prosecutors,’ said House Administration Committee Chairman Bryan Steil, R-Wisc.

‘You have a highly partisan DA in New York who refuses to prosecute crimes in his own areas but is going after a former President five years past the statute of limitations,’ said De La Cruz.

‘This is just the Manhattan-borough DA,’ said McCarthy, suggesting that Bragg should focus his attention on local issues rather than Trump, who is seeking office again.

‘It is political persecution. It is quite simple that this DA does not want President Trump to be president again,’ said Alford. ‘They’re going to even go after his parking tickets if they can try to disqualify him from becoming president again.’

Republicans also use the possible prosecution to artfully suggest their concern isn’t about the former president.

‘We’re not coming to defend President Trump. What we’re coming to defend is equal justice in America,’ argued McCarthy. 

So Republicans don’t want to talk about the possible indictment of former President Trump. But circumstances forced them to talk about former President Trump. This is exactly what Democrats want — and why many political analysts and some Republicans thought the GOP would finally cut the former president loose after the midterms. Democrats and many middle-of-the-road voters see him as toxic. But the more the GOP discusses the former president, that means they’re talking less about President Biden, the economy or other issues which bedevil Democrats. 

That’s why Democrats generally clam up on this issue.

Reporters asked Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., if he had confidence in Bragg. 

‘I think it’s premature to comment on what’s happening, and we’ll have to wait and see what he does,’ said Schumer. 

So for now, Republicans are rallying around Trump. It’s unclear if that’s good politics in the long run, but that’s where the party stands. 

Democrats also hope Republicans remain committed to the former president. They saw how Trump hamstrung Republicans in the midterms.

You need a foil in politics, and Democrats certainly believe they have one in Trump.

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Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told Fox Nation’s Piers Morgan he believes Taiwan is a ‘critical interest’ to the U.S., and suggested China was a far greater threat than Russia to America’s ability to lead across the world.

DeSantis, who is mulling a run for the White House in 2024, made the comments during an exclusive interview with Morgan, which will air this week on Fox Nation’s ‘Piers Morgan Uncensored.’

‘And if China did invade Taiwan?’ Morgan asked DeSantis at one point of the interview focused on the global issue facing the U.S.

‘That would be aggression. Absolutely would be aggression,’ DeSantis said, prompting Morgan to ask whether that was something Americans should be involved in.

‘So I would say that Taiwan is a strong ally of the United States. I think that that’s a critical interest. I think it’s for us, but also for our key allies like Japan and South Korea,’ he responded. 

‘And I think overall, the number one issue that we face internationally is checking the growth and the rise of China. They’re much more powerful, I think, than Putin and Russia are, and they really represent the biggest threat that we’ve seen to our ability to lead since the Soviet Union,’ he said.

Concern has been growing over an increasingly powerful China, which has continued to expand its military and strengthen its ties with nations hostile to the U.S. and its allies. Lawmakers and military officials have also grown more concerned over the Chinese threat to Taiwan, with some arguing China has become more emboldened to invade the island nation it sees as part of its territory because of the aggressive action Russia has taken against Ukraine.

Chinese President Xi Jinping ended a three-day visit to Russia on Wednesday, which saw the two nations sign an agreement to expand economic ties. Some have also expressed worry that China could be planning to supply Russia with weapons intended to be used in its war with Ukraine.

Russia has, however, experienced a harder time than many expected in its fight against the Ukrainian military. It was forced to withdraw its armies from around the capital city of Kyiv after failing to capture it during the initial invasion, and instead had to reinforce its soldiers on the southern and eastern fronts that include the regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk.

Following its failures on the battlefield, fewer Americans began to see the Russian military as a ‘critical threat’ to the U.S.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A Manhattan grand jury expected to meet on Wednesday as part of the investigation into former President Donald Trump and a possible indictment, is now scheduled to return at noon on Thursday, a source with the court told Fox News.

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office canceled the grand jury meeting on Wednesday, where they were expected to hear from at least one additional witness.

But on Wednesday morning, the grand jury was placed ‘on standby’ for Thursday, a source told Fox News.

Two sources relayed to Fox News Digital on Wednesday that the grand jury was canceled because of ‘major dissension’ in Bragg’s office, with one source claiming he is having a tough time convincing members on potential charges because of the ‘weakness’ of the case.

Still, rumors about a possible indictment are rumors and Fox News Digital learned from sources that Trump has not been formally notified if Bragg plans to bring charges against him.

When asked for comment about what was happening behind the scenes in terms of the grand jury and a possible indictment against Trump, the DA’s office said, ‘We can’t confirm or comment on grand jury matters.’

Grand juries that report at noon typically get sat at 2 p.m., and even though court staff typically leaves for the day at 5 p.m., the grand jury could stay beyond that because the DA controls it.

Sources have told Fox News that there is a real chance Bragg may not indict the former president.

When he took over as the DA in January 2022, Bragg stopped pursuing charges against Trump and suspended the investigation ‘indefinitely,’ a top prosecutor who resigned from the office in protest said.

Two prosecutors, Mark Pomerantz and Carey Dune, were leading the investigation under former DA Cyrus Vance, but submitted their resignations after Bragg began raising doubts about pursuing a case against Trump.

The possible charges are based on a $130,000 hush-money payment that Michael Cohen, Trump’s former attorney, made to adult film star Stormy Daniels, whose legal name is Stephanie Clifford, leading up to the 2016 presidential exchange. The money was offered in exchange for her to remain silent about an alleged sexual encounter with Trump in 2006.

Clifford’s attorney told Fox News that Daniels has been asked to speak before the grand jury, though she is not one of the last witnesses that Bragg plans to call.

‘In our conversations, there’s been no definitive plan to be in New York to testify before the grand jury as it sits,’ Her attorney Clark Brewster said.

Brooke Singman of Fox News Digital contributed to this report.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Fed raised rates by 25 bps. The decision was unanimous. The terminal rate projection is unchanged at 5.1%.

The FOMC statement modifies guidance: “The committee anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.”

My first tweet @marketminute this morning before the market opened:

@marketminute: I feel pretty certain Powell goes 25. Announces theyre willing to keep raising at that rate as jobs strong, economy ok & banks arent in a credit crisis. However, as data dependent, they could change course accordingly. $SPY remains in a trading range. Until next fracture appears

And then there’s $sugar looking like it’s about to continue the rally higher. Food prices will remain elevated. And the Fed remains stuck between the damage done but the root of inflation far from fixed.”

My tweeted response after the FOMC?

@marketminute: 5% yields create more stress to labor market.

Does nothing for rising food prices and global inflation.

Silver is outperforming gold.

Sounds like Stagflation

The daily chart of silver shows the price rising further away from the 50-daily moving average in blue. The Leadership indicator shows that Silver is beginning to outperform gold. That, in and of itself, is highly inflationary.

The initial response in the indices was to buy, as investors only hear “pivot”.

Powell: “Intermeeting data on jobs and inflation came in stronger than expected. We considered pause, but the hike was supported by strong consensus.”

You hear pivot? I hear considered–quite different. Which is why it is not only important to watch how silver performs relative to gold, but also how bonds perform relative to the S&P 500.

Long bonds are outperforming the S&P 500. The Daily from March 12th covers this potential in detail. That is typically recessionary.

So, if you add up rising gold, silver, cocoa, sugar, copper, steel, and maybe oil prices, along with long bonds showing yields might have topped and, then add that the bonds are doing better than the market (SPY)—that equals Stagflation.

But the real issue is we have not seen the full impact of the Fed and CBs losing control. And the dollar is weak.

A perfect storm?

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish sits down with Kristen on Cheddar TV’s closing bell to talk what Gold is saying and more.

Mish and Dave Keller of StockCharts look at longer term charts and discuss action plans on the Thursday, March 17 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar.

Mish covers current market conditions strengths and weaknesses in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish sees opportunity in Vietnam, is trading SPX as a range, and likes semiconductors, as she explains to Dale Pinkert on ForexAnalytix’s F.A.C.E. webinar.

Mish and Nicole discuss specific stock recommendations and Fed expectations on TD Ameritrade.

Coming Up:

March 24th: Opening Bell with BNN Bloomberg

March 30th: Your Daily Five, StockCharts TV

March 31st: Festival of Learning Real Vision “Portfolio Doctor”

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 400 pierced for a minute, now back to resistance; 390 pivotal.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170-180 range now.Dow (DIA): Could not hold the move over324, the 200-DMA.Nasdaq (QQQ): 328 is the 23-month MA resistance, now a bit overbought on the indicators.Regional Banks (KRE): 44 support, 50 resistance.Semiconductors (SMH): Will watch for a key reversal to the mean w/ 250 support.Transportation (IYT): Holding the 200-WMA 219, but has to clear the 200-DMA at 224.Biotechnology (IBB): 127.50 resistance.Retail (XRT): 60 big support and 64 big resistance.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

All trades, no matter how well thought out, have the potential to end in a loss. Therefore, we must manage our expectations and be willing to accept risk and fear as part of the trading process. In this week’s edition of Trading Simplified, Dave discusses ways to deal with these inescapable neurological and psychological aspects of trading. He also discusses how current less-than-ideal current conditions could be contributing to your angst. For the “Methodology In Action,” he presents a trade recently opened, and another recently closed for a “better-than-a-poke-in-the-eye” profit.

This video was originally broadcast on March 22, 2023. Click anywhere on the Trading Simplified logo above to watch on our dedicated show page, or at this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch this and past episodes on the StockCharts on-demand video service StockChartsTV.com — registration is free!

New episodes of Trading Simplified air on Wednesdays at 12:00pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all recorded episodes of the show at this link. Go to davelandry.com/stockcharts to access the slides for this episode and more. Dave can be contacted at davelandry.com/contact for any comments and questions.

The end is at hand. Bears, just surrender now. Since the mid-June low (where I called the S&P 500 bottom), we’ve seen the fed funds rate jump from 1.00% to 4.75%. Of course, all we’ve heard since then is what?

Don’t Fight The Fed

Well, since that first 75 basis point hike on June 16th, the S&P 500 is UP, not down. We’ve had four 75-basis point hikes, two 50-basis point hikes, and two 25-basis point hikes. In my opinion, all of it was built into stock prices at the June 2022 low. How else do you explain the significant rate hikes over the past year and an S&P 500 that is 10% higher than it was when the first 75-basis point rate hike was announced? Stop listening to CNBC and the media clowns and pay attention to those who actually do research – like EarningsBeats.com. 2022-2023 isn’t the only period where we’ve seen a number of rate hikes coincide with stock market strength. Do you remember early 2016 when the market bottomed and then soared? That occurred during a period when the Federal Reserve raised rates 9 times:

This chart shows the “Effective” fed funds rate, which coincides with the direction of fed funds. Good thing we “fought the Fed” during that HUGE market rally. Ohhh! And what about the 2004-2006 period when the Fed raised rates at 17 consecutive meetings!?!?!?!?!?

Whatever you do, don’t fight the Fed! (sarcasm)

I’ve actually had plenty of folks come up to me and ask how the stock market can go up when the Federal Reserve is so hawkish – that the stock market has NEVER gone up when the Fed is hiking rates. My response? Do some research and STOP listening to the media. Many authors writing articles have never done an ounce of research, but those headlines drive lots of interested viewers! Quite honestly, that’s all that matters for most authors. Drive that viewership!

Market Rotation

Let me tell you what’s been happening “under the surface” of the stock market. Actually, before I do, let me show you why I told everyone that a cyclical bear market was a real threat as we entered 2022 at all-time highs. A huge part of it was sentiment (and I’ll get to that in a minute), but another big part was market rotation into defensive areas. As the S&P 500 printed its all-time high in January 2022, Wall Street was repositioning in those defensive areas. Lots of Monday morning quarterbacks will tell you how they pointed out the bear market. The problem is that most of them pointed out the bear market after it happened. What good does that do? I fired warning shots in December 2021. On the last day of that December, I wrote an article, “It Could Be A Very Rough Start To 2022”. That was just one day before the all-time high was set. I’ve had dozens and dozens of emails and feedback from EarningsBeats.com members, indicating how much money they saved by exiting stocks at the beginning of 2022. And it was as simple as following a few key charts. Here was one of them:

That red-dotted vertical line represented a MAJOR warning signal for stocks as the bulls’ last gasp came after significant bearish market rotation took place. Let’s see, should we follow the intermarket relationships or tune into CNBC? Those who used the former and avoided the latter did quite well in 2022.

But now the bulls are getting excited. Why? Because the intermarket relationships no longer favor the bears. Money is rotating quite bullishly into growth areas. Here’s the same chart as the one above, but this time for the past six months:

The growth ratios I follow are all soaring. Wall Street is repositioning into growth and this has been occurring throughout 2023. Ask yourself why. For everyone that’s now screaming “inverted yield curve” and “recession”, why would money rotate so heavily into growth stocks. It doesn’t make sense, and that’s why you need to pay attention to it.

But market rotation isn’t even the most bullish signal.

Sentiment

The equity-only put-call ratio ($CPCE) is my “go to” chart when I want to understand how retail traders feel about stocks. And when the 253-day (1 year) moving average of the CPCE begins to turn – and it doesn’t happen often – you need to take note. Extreme readings, either to the upside or downside, can mark major stock market bottoms and tops, respectively. Here’s how this chart looked on Saturday, January 8, 2022, at our 2022 MarketVision event:

The red arrows mark reversals in long-term downtrends. These are reversals off EXTREMELY bullish readings and sentiment indicators are contrarian indicators. They essentially tell you to “batten down the hatches” and grow much more defensive, or even think about shorting the stock market. The opposite is true when this 253-day moving average reaches a stop and begins to roll over. On the chart above, it doesn’t appear as though we’re quite ready to roll over, but I’ve used a User-Defined Index at StockCharts to track what I consider to be a much more reasonable CPCE. There were several outrageously-high daily readings in November and December of 2022, due to unusual hedging activities of institutions. They skewed the readings on the CPCE and needed some adjustment to more accurately reflect the true psyche of the retail trader. After making those adjustments, here’s how my “adjusted” CPCE chart now looks:

The long-term 253-day moving average is just beginning to roll over and if you look above at the earlier CPCE chart, you’ll see that when this rolls over, the S&P 500 begins to soar.

If the stock market was chess, and I was on the bull side, then I’ve been calling “Check” for a few months now. I’m calling “Check” one last time. We’re about to witness “CheckMATE”. It’s time to ditch your bearish thoughts. Stocks are about to scream higher. The Fed is our wild card short-term, but once the effects of this meeting dies down, stocks will soar.

If you’d like REAL research and facts and what truly drives the stock market, you need to join us at EarningsBeats.com. I’m never short on conviction. Even if you disagree with my views, I’ll provide you interesting insight to make better investment decisions. If you think knowing that a bear market was coming before it ever arrived would have helped you in 2022, then I believe following us at EarningsBeats.com in 2023 during a massive rally will prove quite beneficial as well. CLICK HERE to get your FREE 30-day trial started!

Happy trading!

Tom

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.

The market is a little messy, but I’ll do my best to make it clear for you. The top window is the SPY. We posted the TRIN close (first #) and TICK close (second #) on the days they reached panic levels. The light-shaded pink areas are where the majority of panic TICK and TRIN closes occurred, which in turn suggests support. We also pointed to the “Selling Climax” day on the volume chart. The blue-shaded area shows the times when the 3-day, 10-day and 21-day TRIN reached bullish level. In general, this chart shows where panic occurred both in time and price on the SPY. Panic is where market bottoms form.

I’m a big fan of panic, and the higher degree of panic, the more durable the bottom in the market. Above is the VVIX (Vix of the Vix); the VIX and the VVIX are considered fear gauges, and fear is a form of panic. The VVIX had a big jump in mid-March, suggesting a big jump in Fear (panic).  To measure the degree in fear in the VVIX compared to other times, we used the “Rate of Change” (ROC) and RSI on the VVIX. During previous times when the ROC reached above 20 and the RSI above 70 (noted with red lines), the market produced a decent rally. A couple of times, the market retested the low before a rally higher, and that could happen here. Notice that the ROC of the VVIX at the recent low reached over +50 and the highest ROC reading going back to mid 2020. The +50 ROC of the VVIX suggests the highest panic and, in turn, a durable bottom. The bottom window is the 10-day average of the TRIN; readings above 1.20 have formed near market bottoms, and the current reading is 1.29, which adds to the bullish sign. The FOMC announcement is tomorrow, and it appears that whatever the announcement is, it’s already baked into the cake.

The bottom window is the 50-day average for GDX Up Down Volume percent, and the next window up is the 50-day average for GDX Advance/ decline percent. We use both indicators in helping to find intermediate-term lows. The last bullish signal by these indicators came back in July of last year. Both indicators have a good record identifying intermediate-term highs. It turns out that, when the 50-day average of the Up Down Volume percent (bottom window) reaches above +15, and when the 50-day average of the Advance/Decline percent (next window up) reaches +20, GDX has been at an intermediate-term high.  Most sell signals were followed by a buy signal about six months later. As of now, both indicators are well below their sell levels, suggesting the current rally can continue. It’s when this market gets “exuberant” that these indicators reach bearish levels.

Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. Book release “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable; there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.