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After a bear market decline of nearly -50%, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) has rallied over +60% out of the October low. The long-term picture still looks promising with the weekly PMO rising steeply above the zero line. But let’s look in a shorter-term time frame to see if there any more immediate problems.

This one-year daily chart helps us look more closely at the current technical conditions.

(1) To begin, price is hitting the top of a bearish rising wedge pattern.

(2) The rising trend lines from the October low have become more accelerated, making the advance parabolic and subject to a sharp correction.

(3) The PMO and OBV have bearish negative divergences — they are falling while price is making new 50-week highs.

(4) The Silver Cross Index shows that 84% of component SMH stocks have the 20EMA above the 50EMA, which is very bullish.

(5) The Golden Cross Index shows that 80% of SMH component stocks have the 50EMA above the 200EMA, again, very bullish.

(6) The Percent of Stocks Above the 20EMA and 50EMA is at 100%. This is as good as it gets, and presents vulnerability to a pullback.

Conclusion: SMH has a parabolic advance, as well as some negative divergences. Participation is excellent, but it is as good as it gets, which typically results in participation abating somewhat. In my opinion, SMH is setting up for a correction, but this does not rule out a final upside blow-off to cap the parabolic move. Now is not a good time to open new positions, rather it is a good time to tighten stops.

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In this edition of the GoNoGo Charts show, Alex and Tyler take a top-down approach to the technical market environment following the SVB collapse and the Fed’s 25bps hike. They use a GoNoGo Cross Asset Heat Map to help understand the intermarket factors that could impact equity performance. Treasury rates ($TNX), the US dollar (UUP), and oil (USO) are all falling in NoGo trends. Very recently, gold (GLD) and Bitcoin (BTCUSD) rallied into Go trends.

Digging into the equity sectors, Alex and Tyler review the relative outperformance of technology, and then, within the tech subgroups, the strength of semiconductors. This leads to a discussion of $NVDA that is hitting new highs. Finally, Alex and Tyler discuss the situation with regional banks and the financial sector, with commentary on how best to use GoNoGo Charts from a risk control perspective.

This video was originally recorded on March 30, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android, and more!

New episodes of GoNoGo Charts air on Thursdays at 3:30pm ET on StockCharts TV. Learn more about the GoNoGo ACP plug-in with the FREE starter plug-in or the full featured plug-in pack.

This is a follow-up to a piece published a week ago on Nvidia’s (NVDA) strong run following its stellar earnings report. It follows NVDA’s price action, but from another angle, using the lesser-used Ichimoku Cloud indicator.

Revisiting NVDA’s Price Action

NVDA began outperforming its fellow semiconductor industry counterparts in the middle of January. Why? Its role in AI earned it a spotlight amid the ChatGPT and Bard craze that virtually dropped a disruption bomb on just about every industry.

Following a stellar earnings beat, NVDA went parabolic, pulling ahead of the pack, but at a trajectory that seemed a little too steep to be sustainable. The rest of the article advanced a few pullback scenarios, suggesting potential entry and exit levels for investors looking to “buy the dip.” This is what the chart looked like.

CHART 1: A DIP IN NVDA’S STOCK PRICE? NVDA looks ripe for a pullback, so keep an eye on this one. It could present a potential trading opportunity.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes only.

NVDA is “dipping,” and if you’re monitoring a potential trade prospect, it helps to look at its movements again. It’s also an opportunity to view it from a different angle, just to get a different perspective.

Questions Concerning a Pullback

The main question concerning a pullback is whether it’s bound for a bounce or destined to drop. Simply put, what are the odds of it moving up or down?

The View From a Cloud 

The Ichimoku Cloud indicator isn’t the simplest tool to use, but it does give us something unique:

The cloud itself, plotted 26 bars into the future, gives a future framework for anticipating support and resistance and anticipating the potential strength of a trend (based on the cloud’s thickness).The lagging indicator—current price action plotted back 26 bars—indicates the relative bullishness or bearishness of the current price action when viewed against “past” price action, the cloud itself, and the conversion and base lines.

Need a quick overview of Ichimoku Charts? Check out Chip Anderson’s YouTube video explaining the different components of the Ichimoku Cloud.

CHART 2: ICHIMOKU CLOUD INDICATOR. The MACD and Stochastic Oscillator are in overbought territory, and the Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests the uptrend is likely to continue. Any turn in the lagging span could be an early indication of a reversal.Chart source: StockChartsACP. For educational purposes only.

NVDA seemed due for a technical “breather” (aka, pullback), considering the downward slant in the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator, the latter of which is turning down from a relative “overbought” range. But easing concerns regarding the banking sector, coupled with easing in the 10-Year US Treasury yields ($TNX), lifted the broader market, with large-cap technology stocks leading the way. Whatever technical pullback seemed impending just days ago has either been deferred or bypassed by bullish and fundamentally-driven sentiment.

The question at the time, and possibly in the near future, would be whether a decline in NVDA’s price poses a pullback scenario or a potential reversal. This is where the Ichimoku Cloud indicator could help.

Here are some points to consider:

Price is well above the cloud (aka, “kumo”) itself, and the thickening of the cloud adds to the bullishness of the bias. The cloud often serves as a range of support in an uptrend and resistance in a downtrend.Looking at the 26-day projection, there is a very thick range of support should prices decline into it. That price and the conversion line (blue) have crossed above the baseline (red) also adds another layer to bullish indication.The interesting thing to note here, however, is what happened on January 17. At that point in time, NVDA was recovering from a decline, and had yet to break above resistance at 187.87 (December 13, 2022). However, the lagging span (aka “chikou span”), plotted 26 periods back (December 7), had crossed above price, the cloud, conversion line, and baseline. Aside from serving as a lookback period to the then-current price, it also gave an early indication of the potential beginnings of a robust uptrend. And it’s continuing in that direction—for now, anyway.

The Bottom Line

Looking at NVDA’s price action using the previous article’s chart settings gave actionable reference points from which to base potential trades (entries and exits). But following the development of price action using the Ichimoku Cloud paints not only a bullish assessment of its potential trend and momentum strength, but also plots a wider range of potential support should a pullback occur. It also reveals an earlier and more aggressive entry point that might have been taken based on the indications of the lagging span back in January.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

On this week’s edition of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil, Joe explains the best form of MACD divergence, showing how to use multiple timeframes to increase your odds of success with this powerful MACD setup. Using Monthly, Weekly and Daily timeframes, he covers the setup and why it is a good one, then delves in the entry pattern. After that, he covers the stock symbol requests that came through this week.

This video was originally broadcast on March 30, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also view new episodes – and be notified as soon as they’re published – using the StockCharts on demand website, StockChartsTV.com, or its corresponding apps on Roku, Fire TV, Chromecast, iOS, Android and more!

New episodes of Stock Talk with Joe Rabil air on Thursdays at 2pm ET on StockCharts TV. Archived episodes of the show are available at this link. Send symbol requests to stocktalk@stockcharts.com; you can also submit a request in the comments section below the video on YouTube. Symbol Requests can be sent in throughout the week prior to the next show. (Please do not leave Symbol Requests on this page.)

Well, it might be a little early to anoint Intel (INTC) a leader, but there’s no denying a significant breakout in the chip stock above key price resistance. On November 15, 2022, INTC opened at 30.72 and the stock hasn’t seen an open or close above that level since. There were intraday highs 30.79 on February 3rd and 31.00 on March 17th, but both of those breakout attempts ultimately failed. Yesterday, however, volume accelerated and there was no such failure:

The clear positive on this chart is INTC’s breakout above stubborn price resistance. That sets INTC up for a further advance and I’d be watching two key levels of support for confirmation that an uptrend is in place. The first would be broken resistance/now support at 30.72. That typically holds, but I’ve seen plenty of instances where it doesn’t. So I believe the biggest support is the now-rising 20-day EMA, currently at 28.88. I would fully expect INTC to trade above its 20-day EMA for the foreseeable future. Its relative strength has also improved over the past month and has been accompanied by accelerating volume. I wouldn’t call INTC a leader just yet, but it’s certainly improved among its peers.

I’ll be hosting a quarterly Market Outlook event on Saturday, April 15th at 10:00am ET, to evaluate the current bull and bear arguments. Our FREE EB Digest newsletter community will be invited, so if you haven’t already subscribed, please CLICK HERE to do so. There is no credit card required and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Happy trading!

Tom

The National Highway Transportation Safety Administration has launched an investigation into seat belt parts on 2022 to 2023 Tesla Model X SUVs, after receiving two reports from owners that they received their vehicles with defective seat belt parts.

Approximately 50,000 Model X’s may be affected, NHTSA said. The defect involves the point at which the seat belt pretensioner and an anchor are linked. According to the agency’s notice, ‘the linkage and the pretensioner suddenly separated’ when force was exerted on them.

No injuries were reported in connection with the two claims of defects, NHTSA said. The detachment of the seat belt parts occurred ‘at low vehicle mileage,’ NHTSA said.

Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

NHTSA continues to probe multiple issues associated with Tesla vehicles, including the company’s driver-assistance feature known as Autopilot and how it responds to emergency vehicles parked on highways. More recently, the agency has also investigated reports of Tesla steering wheels that have detached.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Honda is recalling more than 330,000 vehicles because heating pads behind both side-view mirrors may not be bonded properly, which could lead to the mirror glass falling out and increase the risk of a crash.

Vehicles included in the recall are the 2020-2022 Odyssey, 2020-2022 Passport, 2020-2021 Pilot and 2020-2021 Ridgeline.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said that the vehicles don’t comply with the necessary rear visibility requirements.

Honda dealers will replace the side-view mirrors on impacted vehicles free of charge.

Owner notification letters are expected to be sent out on May 8. Vehicle owners may contact Honda customer service at 1-888-234-2138 or the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Vehicle Safety Hotline at 1-888-327-4236.

This post appeared first on NBC NEWS

Low-income Wisconsin mothers could stay on Medicaid longer after giving birth and with less paperwork under a bill that has gained bipartisan support in the Republican-controlled Legislature.

Nearly half of the state’s lawmakers have co-sponsored the bill that came before the Senate insurance committee for a hearing on Wednesday. Currently, Wisconsinites can enroll in the state-supported and federally-funded healthcare program if they are pregnant and qualify as low-income, but have to recertify for the program 60 days after giving birth. Under the proposal, they could keep coverage for a year, even if their household income increases.

Democrats have long supported Medicare expansion in Wisconsin and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers is likely to support the measure, which is similar Medicaid expansion in his budget proposal last month. In areas of disagreement with Republican lawmakers, Evers has used issued a record number of vetoes.

A similar bill failed to pass the Wisconsin Legislature in 2021, and Republicans rejected Evers’ request in the last budget cycle to establish one year of postpartum Medicaid benefits, opting instead to extend them to 90 days. The state Department of Health Services is still waiting on federal approval for that extension.

But Republican lawmakers across the country are moving to expand access to postpartum health care after the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to an abortion last June. They say the efforts are central to conservative anti-abortion platforms, but in many states, including Wisconsin, Republicans have long opposed efforts to expand Medicaid.

‘I am proudly pro-life, and this bill should be part of a pro-life package,’ said Republican Rep. Donna Rozar, the bill’s sponsor in the Assembly. ‘The best way to have healthy babies is to have healthy mothers.’

Roughly 40% of births are eligible for Medicaid coverage, and states are required to offer eligible mothers at least two months of taxpayer funded coverage. Thirty states including the District of Columbia have already expanded coverage to 12 months for new mothers, and 8 states have plans to implement 12-month expansions, according to the non-profit Kaiser Family Foundation, which researches health care issues.

The Wisconsin measure is backed by medical groups including the Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin and the Wisconsin Medical Society, as well as anti-abortion groups such as Wisconsin Right to Life and Pro-Life Wisconsin.

Roughly 50 to 60 Wisconsin mothers die each year after childbirth, Dr. Jasmine Zapata, a chief medical officer the health department, told lawmakers Wednesday.

‘That is not something I would wish on anyone else, and when you are in that situation, even one life is too many,’ Zapata said.

Nobody attending the hearing spoke in opposition to the bill.

The proposed expansion would cost the state more than $21 million and extend coverage to nearly 5,300 more mothers, according to health department estimates.

Wisconsin remains one of just 10 states that have not accepted federal funds to expand Medicaid eligibility above the federal poverty line, despite pushes from Evers and other Democrats to do so.

If Wisconsin were to accept the federal Medicaid expansion, the costs of expanding coverage for new mothers would drop to around $17 million, according to health department estimates.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Activists on Wednesday demanded that the state of California pay millions of dollars to each Black resident in reparations as a way to make amends for slavery and subsequent discrimination, dismissing the idea of payments of $5 million per person as ‘nothing’ and ‘too little.’

The demands were made at an in-person meeting of the California Reparations Task Force, which was created by state legislation signed by Gov. Gavin Newsom in 2020. The committee was hearing comments from the public as it considers final recommendations to submit to the California Legislature, which will then decide whether to implement the measures and send them to Newsom’s desk to be signed into law.

The task force is considering a proposal to give just under $360,000 per person to approximately 1.8 million Black Californians who had an ancestor enslaved in the U.S., putting the total cost of the program at about $640 billion.

Meanwhile, the city of San Francisco is weighing its own reparations proposals at the local level. Earlier this month, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors expressed ‘unanimous’ support for a draft plan of more than 100 reparations recommendations for the city, including a proposal to dole out $5 million each to qualifying Black residents. The proposal would cost non-Black families in the city at least $600,000, according to Stanford University’s Hoover Institution.

Both ideas are skimping on what’s necessary to pay Black Californians, according to activists who spoke at the gathering.

‘I believe that 5 million in reparations is too little for the work that foundational Black Americans have done for this country and as well for other countries,’ one speaker said. ‘I believe that 7.6 million [dollars] is a number that can be used very wisely in our foundational Black American communities.’

Foundational Black Americans are descendants of Black people who were enslaved in the U.S. According to the speaker, reparations are overdue for all foundational Black Americans both for the suffering they endured and for helping ‘every culture get on their feet.’ He also called for various other reparations measures, such as giving 40 acres and a tractor and colleges agreeing not raise tuition prices for foundational Black American families.

‘To try to keep holding foundational Black Americans back from what is due for us is just another form of slavery,’ he concluded. ‘It is preposterous and totally absurd.’

Another activist identified as Reverend Tony Pierce similarly said current reparations proposals aren’t enough.

‘Where’s the money? Where’s the cash? Where’s the check?’ Pierce asked emphatically. ‘$5 million, San Francisco’s already made a move. $5 million is nothing, and I’ll tell you why.’

Pierce argued that $5 million spread over 50 years would only amount to $100,000 year, and then with taxes, ‘you’ll be lucky if you end up with $40,00 a year.’

The reverend added that $223,000 for housing isn’t sufficient, saying anti-Black discrimination such as ‘predatory lending’ is prevalent.

‘Where’s the money?’ he concluded with a raised voice.

It’s unclear how California would afford to pay more than $5 million to Black residents. Newsom announced in January that the state faces a projected budget deficit of $22.5 billion for the coming fiscal year. Then weeks later, the California Legislative Analyst’s Office, a government agency that analyzes the budget for the state legislature, estimated in a subsequent report that Newsom’s forecast undershot the mark by about $7 billion.

Still, Lisa Holder, a reparations task force member and president of the far-left Equal Justice Society, vowed in a recent opinion piece that the committee’s ‘recommendations will be breathtaking.’

Last year, the state task force made several preliminary recommendations in an interim report. A final report with the panel’s official recommendations is due by July 1 to the state legislature.

In San Francisco, which has roughly 50,000 Black residents, the city board has expressed interest in various reparations ideas such as a guaranteed annual income of at least $97,000 for 250 years and a home in the area for just $1 a family.

Another idea under consideration is a ‘comprehensive debt forgiveness’ program that would clear all personal, educational and credit card debt of low-income Black households. 

Like California, San Francisco is also facing a massive deficit, estimated at $728 million, making it unclear how the city would pay for such a reparations plan.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

FIRST ON FOX: A Republican congressman, 80 pastors and their spouses delivered a soulful rendition of ‘Amazing Grace’ in the U.S. Capitol Rotunda while on a tour.

Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La., led a Christian history tour of the Capitol Tuesday night that was made up of 80 pastors and their spouses from 16 states, as well as several current and former lawmakers.

While in the Capitol Rotunda, the group belted out their praise for the Almighty above in a moving rendition of the classic Christian hymn that reverberated throughout the dome.

‘I always enjoy taking friends and visitors through these hallowed halls, and it was a privilege to take this group of faith leaders on a special tour of the Capitol last night,’ Johnson told Fox News Digital.

‘They were greatly encouraged to see and be reminded of the religious and moral foundations of our country,’ the Louisiana Republican continued. ‘In these times of great division, all Americans would do well to be reminded of those truths and that important heritage.’

‘Church services used to be held routinely in the Capitol, and it is always moving to hear prayers and hymns echoing in the Rotunda today,’ he added.

The tour touched on the Christian history of the Capitol, the founders, and America itself.

Johnson led the tour that was joined by fellow lawmaker Senator Tim Scott, R-S.C., — who was not with the tour at the time of the hymn — as well as former Rep. Bob McEwen, R-Ohio, and Christian author David Barton.

The Louisiana Republican led a similar tour last week for a different group of faith leaders that prayed and sang in the Capitol.

The faith leader’s hymn came the day after the nation came to a standstill when a mass shooter killed three nine-year-olds and three faculty members at a Christian private school in Nashville.

The former pastor at Covenant Presbyterian in Nashville, Tennessee, declined to advocate for stricter gun laws after a reporter questioned if prayers were enough in the wake of the mass shooting.

CBS asked Pastor Jim Bachmann if he agreed with calls for more ‘action’ instead of ‘thoughts and prayers.’

 ‘I’ve heard so many people say lately, faith-filled people, ‘I don’t want your thoughts and prayers, I don’t want to hear about thoughts and prayers, I want action.’ As a man of faith, you will conduct Mike Hill’s funeral next week. You will preside over it. What do you say to those people who say that?’ reporter David Begnaud asked.

Bachmann, who was friends with slain custodian Mike Hill, started to say he hadn’t crafted his eulogy yet when the reporter pressed on gun control again.

‘But about ‘we don’t need your thoughts and prayers, we need action,’ what do you say to that?’ he asked. Begnaud clarified he was specifically referring to passing more gun laws.

‘That’s a little bit above my pay grade,’ the pastor responded.

Bachmann instead said a cultural and spiritual change was needed in our society.

‘I think what I say is we need to love each other, and we need to learn to disagree agreeably, and learn how to forgive,’ he answered. He went on to call for peaceful disagreements instead of violence.

‘You know, people from different ideologies, different theologies, different backgrounds, it’s okay to disagree. But it’s not okay to shoot each other, and particularly shoot children and innocent victims,’ Bachmann said.

The man of God then quoted Jesus to the reporter and viewing audience.

‘And so the message of the Gospel is we ‘love our neighbor as ourselves.’ And try to bear each other’s burdens and work through them, whatever problems — we all have problems. And you know, we all need help at times in our lives,’ Bachmann said, adding that helping people with their problems was part of his role as a pastor.

Fox News Digital’s Kristine Parks contributed reporting.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS