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The Halftime Show: Screen Signals Momentum Breakouts

In this week’s edition of StockCharts TV‘s Halftime, Pete takes a look at the Q’s and sectors this week. At the end of the quarter, we all know that tech has done well and, while the defensive side has tailed off, the quarter wasn’t so bad for most names. Pete shares a Chaikin list that spots momentum and provides a specific signal that calls out which names are performing.

This video was originally broadcast on April 3, 2023. Click on the above image to watch on our dedicated Halftime by Chaikin Analytics page on StockCharts TV, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch on our on-demand website, StockChartsTV.com, using this link.

New episodes of Halftime by Chaikin Analytics air Mondays at 1:15pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all previously recorded episodes at this link.

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DP Trading Room: Sector Deep Dive

On this week’s edition of The DecisionPoint Trading Room, Erin presents a review of all of the sectors to find out where new momentum lies and where relative strength is — you might be surprised. Carl gives us his take on the market, as well as the Dollar, Gold, and Crude Oil’s big rally today. Erin finishes off by taking symbol requests and explaining entries and exits on the 5-minute candlestick of the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO).

This video was originally recorded on April 3, 2023. Click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch this episode and other past episodes on the StockCharts on demand video service, StockChartsTV.com. Registration is free!

New episodes of The DecisionPoint Trading Room air on Mondays at 3pm ET on StockCharts TV. Past videos will be available to watch on demand. Sign up to attend the trading room live Mondays at 12pm ET by clicking here!

Erin also hosted the Monday, April 3 edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, where she presented five charts you should be looking at going into this week. The Swenlin Trading Oscillators are looking good as are the Silver and Golden Cross Indices. Real Estate is also showing some positive moves, so be sure to keep an eye on that.

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The 4 Indices — More to Prove in 2nd Quarter

Since the first quarter ended with very few instruments above the 23-month, we thought we would start the 2nd quarter by examining where the 4 indices are.

Over the weekend, the Market Outlook reminded us that “we would likely see a rangebound market, along with stagflation. With positive back-to-back quarterly returns since the beginning of the 4th quarter, 2022 bodes well for stocks.

“April seasonality trends suggest the buying pressure could continue. Since 1950, the S&P has posted average and median April returns of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively. In addition, the index (S&P 500) has finished positive during the month 71% of the time, marking the highest positivity rate on the calendar.”

This is why we really find the 23-month moving average, or about a 2-year business cycle, to be so important and quite possibly the most important indicator for this next quarter.

Looking at the four charts of the four major indices, you can see that all their prices are starting April under the 23-month moving average. Is this significant? Yes, because after a bullish 2021 and a bearish 2022, 2023 is rangebound and unclear yet whether the market believes the economy will expand.

One thing is certain–2023 remains a bit murky, as there is contraction in economic statistics, such as the ISM manufacturing number, yet higher inflation potential with the OPEC+ decision to cut oil production further.

The FED is in the same pickle this quarter as they were in the last one. Maybe worse.

The index closest to breaking out over the 23-month is the Dow. And that makes sense.

Industrials are strong even in an inflationary environment as they have pricing power.

The next index that could breakout is NASDAQ. And that, too, makes sense. If the Fed pauses, growth stocks can continue what semiconductor stocks started in March.

The S&P 500 is also close. However, if inflation continues, regardless of what the Fed does or does not do, these companies or the top Fortune 500 can continue to struggle.

The small caps hurt the most. And that too makes sense. Hence, our eyes are here for best clues. Look to a year ago in April 2022. The NASDAQ fell below the 23-month MA first, then the small caps and then the rest followed. Now, we will watch for the opposite.

Which index (if any) clears the MA first?

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

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Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish chats with Neils Christensen on Oil and Gold in this article from Kitco.

See Mish’s presentation at Real Vision’s Festival of Learning, exclusively available for Real Vision members.

Mish talks with CNBC Asia about hope, fear, and greed, and what could happen going forward.

On the Thursday edition of StockCharts TV’s Your Daily Five, Mish walks you through where we are in the economic cycle at the end of the first quarter, then highlights what to look for (and trade) as we enter the second quarter.

In this appearance on CMC Markets, Mish gives you clear actionable information to support why commodities look to go higher from here.

Mish talks looking for stock market opportunities on Business First AM.

Mish discusses long bonds, Silver to Gold and the Dollar in this appearance on BNN Bloomberg.

Mish sits down with Kristen on Cheddar TV’s closing bell to talk what Gold is saying and more.

Mish and Dave Keller of StockCharts look at longer term charts and discuss action plans on the Thursday, March 17 edition of StockCharts TV’s The Final Bar.

Mish covers current market conditions strengths and weaknesses in this appearance on CMC Markets.

Mish sees opportunity in Vietnam, is trading SPX as a range, and likes semiconductors, as she explains to Dale Pinkert on ForexAnalytix’s F.A.C.E. webinar.

Mish and Nicole discuss specific stock recommendations and Fed expectations on TD Ameritrade.

Hear Mish chat with Loren Hodi on the Bitcoin Talk podcast!

Coming Up:

April 4th: Making Money with Charles Payne on Fox Business AND The RoShowPod with Rosanna Prestia

April 13th: The Final Bar with David Keller on StockCharts TV

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 405 support and 410 pivotal.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support- 180 resistance still.Dow (DIA): Confirmed bullish phase.Nasdaq (QQQ): 325 the 23-month moving average-huge.Regional Banks (KRE): Weekly price action more inside the range of the last 3 weeks-still looks weak.Semiconductors (SMH): 255 key support 270 resistance.Transportation (IYT): 225 a weekly support level and 223 a daily support level.Biotechnology (IBB): Needs to clear the 130 area.Retail (XRT): Big resistance at 64.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

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2022 Q4 Earnings Results: Market Becomes More Overvalued

The following chart shows the normal value range of the S&P 500 Index, indicating where the S&P 500 would have to be in order to have an overvalued P/E of 20 (red line), a fairly valued P/E of 15 (blue line), or an undervalued P/E of 10 (green line). Annotations on the right side of the chart show where the range is projected to be based upon earnings estimates through 2023 Q4.

Historically, price has usually remained below the top of the normal value range (red line); however, since about 1998, it has not been uncommon for price to exceed normal overvalue levels, sometimes by a lot. The market has been mostly overvalued since 1992, and it has not been undervalued since 1984. We could say that this is the “new normal,” except that it isn’t normal by GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) standards.

We use GAAP earnings as the basis for our analysis. The table below shows earnings projections through December 2023. Keep in mind that the P/E estimates are calculated based upon the S&P 500 close as of March 31, 2023. They will change daily depending on where the market goes from here. It is notable that the P/E is again outside the normal range.

The following table shows where the bands are projected be, based upon earnings estimates through 2023 Q3.

This DecisionPoint chart keeps track of S&P 500 fundamentals, P/E and yield, and it is updated daily — not that you need to watch it that closely, but it is up-to-date when you need it.

CONCLUSION: The market is still overvalued and, with a P/E of 23.79, well above the normal range. Earnings have declined for the last three quarters, and they are estimated to be lower for 2023 Q1. Being overvalued doesn’t require an immediate decline to bring valuation back within the normal range, but high valuation applies negative pressure to the market environment.

Watch the latest episode of DecisionPoint on StockCharts TV’s YouTube channel here!

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Don’t Fight the Tape; Stock Market Returns to Uptrend, Nasdaq 100 Blows Out 13,000 Resistance Level

The stock market is back in an uptrend. Moreover, the rally is being led by the technology sector, which is usually a very bullish development. 

Last week in this space, I noted that money flows into stocks were increasing. So far, that’s been a correct observation.

The fact is that markets have short memories, because the algos who do most of the trading are only focused on the next piece of news that hits and the general trend in the flow of buy and sell orders for stocks and options. As a result, once the news flow related to the banking crisis slowed, the algos moved on to the next thing, which was the notion that the Federal Reserve may have stopped raising interest rates.

In a sense, that’s a relief, because if humans were in charge, there would still be a good deal of worrying and handwringing going on, especially about what the Fed will do next and the fate of the banking sector. Of course, anyone who’s traded the markets before the algos took over knows that sometimes a bit of handwringing and worry-warting can be healthy, especially when it comes to the Fed, especially this incarnation of the central bank, which is woefully untrustworthy.

Arguably, the banking crisis could reignite and the market would be back on the path to decline. So I and perhaps other geezer traders will continue to trade the trend, which is up for now, as we secretly worry about the next disaster that is almost certainly looming. Nevertheless, despite the gloom and doom and increased volatility, money seems to be moving into the stock market. So we don’t fight the tape. But we remain cautious, because there are still many negatives that are lurking, especially a resumption of U.S. inflationary data.

Bond Yields Break Below. Mortgage Rates Fall. Housing Stocks Perk Up.

To look at the most recent inflation data, the Fed’s favorite gauge, the Personal Consumption Estimate (PCE deflator), came in lighter than expectations, clocking in at a core reading of 0.3% month-to-month rise versus an expected 0.4%. That’s a 4.7% annual growth rate, still well above that magic 2% number. The biggest contributors were restaurant and hotel expenses; party on. Somehow, spending fell and personal income rose, although the pace of rise has slowed.

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment and expectations indexes fell in response to the banking crisis. Certainly, these are mixed indicators, but they do suggest that there is a rising wall of worry in consumer land.

Yet the U.S. Ten Year Note yield (TNX) is still hovering near 3.5%. This suggests that bond traders are not fully convinced that inflation is dead, while still waiting for the recession to be fully apparent. Unfortunately, this plus-minus data means that the Fed may still raise rates another quarter point at its next meeting, which is scheduled for May 2-3.

On the plus side, the steady tone in TNX has, as I expected, led to a further decline in mortgage rates. The average 30-year mortgage is now below 6.4%. Moreover, the rate has broken below its 20-day moving average, signaling a short-term reversal, which should translate into a mini-boom in home purchasing activity as potential buyers who have been on the fence finally make their move.

I’ve seen a pickup in activity in my usual haunts of late. And yes, those out-of-state license plates, California, Illinois, and New Jersey, continue to crowd my freeway travels, which means the Great Migration continues. I’ve been bullish on the homebuilder sector for the last few years and I continue to recommend homebuilder shares, You can check my picks out with a free trial to my service here.

Moreover, the action in homebuilder stocks is starting to heat up once again. The SPDR S&P Homebuilder ETF (XHB) moved back above its 50-day moving average as Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume have stabilized. The Rate of Change Indicator (ROC) has also turned up. This type of change in ROC often predicts a bullish reversal in both ADI and OBV.

I discussed the long term investment potential in homebuilder stocks in my latest Your Daily Five video, focused on investing in Megatrends. And I’ve just put the finishing touches on a Special Report titled: “How to Invest in the Housing Megatrend,” which is you can download my Buy me a Coffee page.

Summer Heat Approaches; Energy Sector Could be Close to Awakening

With the technology stocks firing on all cylinders, as I suggested they might in this space last week, I’m turning my attention to the biggest wallflower sector in the market, energy — specifically, the oil market.

That’s because we’re getting close to driving season and supplies for gasoline and crude are tight. Meanwhile, the shale oil producers in Texas and to some degree elsewhere in the U.S. are in no hurry to ramp up production. In addition, gasoline supplies are still lagging, even though refineries are ramping up and working at 90% of capacity, which is close to their limit.

Much of the decline in oil has been due to expectations that the U.S. economy is headed for recession. But that line of thinking is ignoring an equally valid reality, that of a supply crunch in crude, gasoline, and the woefully available diesel fuel developing due to some geopolitical event.

Sure, the Ukraine war has now been fully factored into the supply situation. And daily news reports suggest that Russia is selling oil to anyone who wants it, as the Saudis pivot toward China as their new BFF when it comes to purchasing oil.

But that’s precisely my point. With shale oil supplies flattening out, and the strategic petroleum supply (SPR) having been drawn down by the White House, there really is no slack for oil in the U.S at the moment. In other words, it’s plausible that the U.S. could find itself in a similar situation to where Germany was in relationship to natural gas when the Ukraine war erupted and sanctions were placed on Russia, where prices climbed and shortages were the order of the day. Now that supply has been restored to Germany by the U.S. and other natural gas suppliers, prices remain higher than they would have been if Russia would have continued to supply Germany as it had for decades.

That’s why I’m keeping a close eye on the U.S. Oil ETF (USO), which has recently come off its bottom.

I’m focusing on the $67 price area, as this is slightly above the 50-day moving average. A move above the 50-day could be a bullish short to intermediate term development for USO since the Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) indicators are suggesting that money is moving into oil via this ETF in an aggressive fashion.

You can access my recent report on the energy market here. 

Bullish Money Flows Continue. Nasdaq Breaks Above 13,000

The market’s breadth is back in an uptrend as the New York Stock Exchange Advance Decline line (NYAD) held above its long term support line, the 200-day moving average, and further rallied above its 50-day moving average. These are bullish developments.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (SPX) rallied along with NYAD after also holding at its 200-day moving average. The next challenge for SPX is the resistance area at 4100-4200. The most bullish development, however, is that On Balance Volume (OBV) is starting to move higher while Accumulation Distribution (ADI) is holding steady. Combined these two indicators suggest money is moving into stocks.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) delivered a breakout above 13,000. This is very bullish, as it suggests money is now pouring into technology stocks. When tech stocks rally, the give the whole market a boost. Accumulation Distribution (ADI) and On Balance Volume (OBV) are very bullish for NDX.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has broken below 20, a sign that the bears are throwing in the towel. 

When VIX rises, stocks tend to fall, as rising put volume is a sign that market makers are selling stock index futures in order to hedge their put sales to the public. A fall in VIX is bullish, as it means less put option buying, and it eventually leads to call buying. This causes market makers to hedge by buying stock index futures and raises the odds of higher stock prices.

The market’s liquidity remains stable as the Eurodollar Index (XED) remained above support near 94.75. A move above 95 will be a bullish development for sure. Usually, a stable or rising XED is very bullish for stocks. On the other hand, in the current environment, it’s more of a sign that fear is rising and investors are raising cash.

To get the latest up-to-date information on options trading, check out Options Trading for Dummies, now in its 4th Edition—Get Your Copy Now! Now also available in Audible audiobook format!

#1 New Release on Options Trading!

Good news! I’ve made my NYAD-Complexity – Chaos chart (featured on my YD5 videos) and a few other favorites public. You can find them here.

Joe Duarte

In The Money Options

Joe Duarte is a former money manager, an active trader, and a widely recognized independent stock market analyst since 1987. He is author of eight investment books, including the best-selling Trading Options for Dummies, rated a TOP Options Book for 2018 by Benzinga.com and now in its third edition, plus The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book and six other trading books.

The Everything Investing in Your 20s and 30s Book is available at Amazon and Barnes and Noble. It has also been recommended as a Washington Post Color of Money Book of the Month.

To receive Joe’s exclusive stock, option and ETF recommendations, in your mailbox every week visit https://joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/secure/order_email.asp.

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NHL stretch drive: Two Central Division teams can clinch Monday

The Los Angeles Kings clinched a playoff berth on Sunday and the Pittsburgh Penguins moved back into a playoff spot.

It’s Central Division teams’ time in the spotlight on Monday.

The Minnesota Wild can clinch a playoff and gain ground in the race for the Western Conference’s top overall seed if they defeat the Vegas Golden Knights at home. They had lost 4-1 in Las Vegas on Saturday.

The Dallas Stars also will clinch if they defeat the visiting Nashville Predators, who need the points to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Questions to be answered with the end of the regular season rapidly approaching:

Follow every game: Latest NHL Scores and Schedules

Can the Bruins and Edmonton star Connor McDavid keep up their impressive paces to reach special territory? Who will win the races in the Metropolitan, Central and Pacific divisions? How about the wild-card races? And which team will have the best odds to win the May 8 draft lottery and get the right to draft generational talent Connor Bedard?

USA TODAY Sports analyzes the NHL’s stretch drive, with the regular season ending April 14 (story is updated through April 2):

Will the Boston Bruins break the NHL wins record?

The NHL record is 62 by the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings and 2018-19 Lightning. The Bruins, who have a franchise-record 60 wins, need three victories over their final five games to get the league mark. Boston has a combined 8-2 record against their final five opponents. They beat the Penguins and Blues during the weekend while sitting out captain Patrice Bergeron.

Will Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid reach 70 goals or 150 points?

McDavid seemed headed for the NHL’s first 70-goal season since the 1990s when he had five consecutive two-goal games in late February and early March to give him 52 goals in 62 games. But 70 is likely out of reach because even after scoring in his past two games, he needs eight goals in his final five games. Three of those games against the bottom-four San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks. He has averaged a goal a game against those teams. McDavid has 146 points and has a good chance to be the league’s first 150-point scorer since the 1990s. 

Can Sharks defensemen Erik Karlsson reach 100 points?

His four-assist game on Saturday means he needs five points in his last six games. He twice faces the Avalanche, who shut him out in their lone meeting. No NHL defenseman has scored 100 points since the New York Rangers’ Brian Leetch in 1991-92.

Who wins the Metropolitan Division?

The Carolina Hurricanes lead the New Jersey Devils by three points after defeating the New York Islanders on Sunday. The Hurricanes, who improved to 6-5-1 since Andrei Svechnikov suffered a season-ending knee injury, have a game in hand. 

Who wins the Atlantic Division?

The Bruins have won both the division and the Presidents’ Trophy, giving them home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. The Toronto Maple Leafs lead the Tampa Bay Lightning by four points and have a game in hand in the race for home-ice advantage in the first round. They face other on April 11 in Toronto. Maple Leafs goalie Matt Murray left Sunday’s game after a collision.

What about the Eastern Conference wild-card race?

The New York Islanders (87 points) and Pittsburgh Penguins (86) hold the two spots. The Florida Panthers are at 85 and Buffalo Sabres at 81 with two games in hand on the Penguins and three on the Islanders. The Panthers moved ahead of Pittsburgh when Carter Verhaeghe scored four games Saturday in a 7-0 rout of the Columbus Blue Jackets. But Pittsburgh reclaimed the spot Sunday with a 4-2 win against the Philadelphia Flyers. Both have five games left. The Penguins’ final three games are against three non-playoff teams while the Panthers’ final two games are against the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes. The Sabres play four playoff teams in their final seven games.

Who wins the Central Division?

Just one point separates the No. 1 Minnesota Wild, No. 2 Colorado Avalanche and No. 3 Dallas Stars. The Wild fell to the Golden Knights, just their second regulation loss in 22 games. Those teams meet again Monday. The Avalanche beat the Stars 5-2 Saturday behind a four-point night from Mikko Rantanen. The Stars would move into first place on Monday if they win and the Wild lose. The Avalanche will have two games in hand after Monday night.

Who wins the Pacific Division?

The Golden Knights, who have a game in hand, lead the Los Angeles Kings by one point and the Oilers by three. This will be a big week for helping determine the final standings. The Oilers and Kings meet on Tuesday and the Golden Knights and Kings play on Thursday (will Vegas goalie Jonathan Quick face his former team?). 

How about the Western Conference wild-card race?

The second-year Seattle Kraken (90 points) and the Jets (89) hold the two spots, with the Flames at 87 and Predators at 84. Nashville has two games in hand on the Jets. Winnipeg, which has outscored its opponents 12-3 over two games since shuffling its lines, hosts Calgary on Wednesday and Nashville on Saturday. The Kraken, who host the Arizona Coyotes on Monday, have two games in hand on Winnipeg and Calgary. They play five non-playoff teams before finishing the season with a home-and-home set against the Golden Knights.

Who gets the best odds to draft Connor Bedard?

The Chicago Blackhawks have lost eight in a row to drop to last place but have captain Jonathan Toews back in the lineup after he missed two months with the effects of long COVID and chronic immune response syndrome. The Anaheim Ducks, who also have lost eight in a row, have fallen to 31st place. The Columbus Blue Jackets moved past the Ducks by beating the Ottawa Senators on Sunday.

The bottom team has a 25.5% chance of getting the first pick in the lottery, either outright or with a team in the 12 to 16 range winning. The lottery winner can move up only 10 spaces this year.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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Larson wins Richmond NASCAR race to keep Hendrick, Chevrolet on top

Kyle Larson spent the week watching videos of his 10-win, 2021 championship season, he said, “to remind myself that I used to be good.”

He still is. Larson pulled away on a restart with 14 laps to go and easily won the NASCAR Cup Series race at Richmond Raceway on Sunday.

“I just really wanted to look at old tape of myself and see where my mindset was and to see my confidence,” Larson said after his 20th career victory in NASCAR’s top series.

Larson started the final green flag run with Hendrick Motorsports teammate Josh Berry to his outside and beat Berry into the first turn. Berry, who is filling in for the injured Chase Elliott, held on for second, followed by Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell and Kevin Harvick.

RYAN BLANEY: Raises Alzheimer’s awareness for grandfather who began family’s racing dynasty

SCHEDULE: How to watch NASCAR Cup Series races in 2023

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It’s the third victory of the season for the four-car Hendrick team and came less than a week after a 100-point penalty against each driver for using an illegal part was overturned by a NASCAR appeals panel. It also came with a fill-in crew chief in Kevin Meendering because the appeals panel upheld the four-race suspensions of all four team crew chiefs.

“I was just happy to fill a gap and help those guys out in a tough situation,” Meendering said. “This is a testament to all the hard work but those guys on that team and to Hendrick Motorsports.”

Chevrolet took the top three spots and has now won five of the seven races this season.

All the Hendrick cars except for Berry ran in contention all race, with William Byron, the only two-time winner this season, leading a race-high 117 laps and running fourth for a restart with 21 laps to go. The field bunched up heading into Turn 1, and Bell hit his left rear quarter panel, sending Byron spinning into the wall. He finished 24th.

“It looked like the 1 (Chastain) was inside the 20 (Bell) and the 20 overcooked the corner, had the fronts locked up and nailed us in the left rear,” Byron said. “It is what it is. I had a great race car.”

Bell said he was trying to keep Chastain at bay.

“I tried to protect from him going to the inside and he still made it three-wide there at the last minute and there wasn’t enough room,” he said.

The cars never got on the track on Saturday because of rain, leading NASCAR to give them an extra set of tires, and even then, teams pitted for lightly used scuffs for the final green flag run. That paid off big for Berry and Michael McDowell, who stayed on the track during the previous green flag stop, then got the caution that made it pay off.

“Everybody on the team made some great calls,” Berry said. “I’m so glad they tried something different there at the end to just get us up front.”

McDowell turned it into a sixth-place finish. Todd Gilliland, the third driver who stayed on the track, turned in a 15th-place finish.

“Our car was really good on the long run and I think we were gonna be 15th or 16th, so you might as well go for it and see if you can’t come up with something good and it worked out,” McDowell said.

THE PITS

Denny Hamlin won the second stage with a last-lap pass of Bell, then got a great pit stop to get him out first to start the final stage.

A poor next stop during that stage set him back, and he was working his way back into contention when, for the second time, he incurred a pit road penalty that took him out of contention. He finished 20th.

NUTS & BOLTS

Hendrick drivers led 229 of the 400 laps with Larson pacing 93, Berry 10 and pole-sitter Alex Bowman 9. … Former NFL tight end Vernon Davis, who finished his career with the Washington Commanders, was the honorary pace car driver.

UP NEXT

The second of three straight short track events comes next Sunday night on the dirt at Bristol Motor Speedway.

This post appeared first on USA TODAY
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San Diego State, UConn give surreal men’s tournament final it deserves

Connecticut and San Diego State will meet Monday night for the national championship.

In basketball. College basketball. Men’s college basketball. Just to be as clear as possible: There were 352 Division I men’s teams during the 2022-23 season, and the No. 5 Aztecs and the No. 4 Huskies are the last two standing.

It can feel a little hard to believe.

San Diego State had never reached the Elite Eight before this season. Now, after a thrilling, buzzer-beating epic against No. 9 Florida Atlantic, the Aztecs will look to join UNLV in 1990 as the only current mid-major programs to win the national championship.

Follow the madness: Latest Men’s NCAA Tournament College Basketball Scores and Schedules

These are the factors that will determine Monday night’s championship game:

San Diego State’s physical (and mental) toughness

For about a decade, the Aztecs have earned a reputation for being one of college basketball’s toughest teams because of the play of a defense that annually ranks among the nation’s best.

That has held to form during tournament play. SDSU is giving up an even 60 points per game heading into Monday night while holding opponents to 35.9% shooting from the field and 21.6% from deep.

In a good analog for what sort of talent and depth they’ll see Monday night, the Aztecs beat overall No. 1 seed Alabama 71-64 in the Sweet 16 and did a number on freshman star and projected lottery pick Brandon Miller, who had just nine points on 3 of 19 shooting.

FAU connected on 44.2% from the field and became the Aztecs’ first opponent since New Mexico on Feb. 25 and the 11th overall to crack the 70-point mark. But FAU was held in check in the second half, hitting on just 8 of 24 attempts as SDSU cut into and then erased the Owls’ lead.

There’s also something to be said for the Aztecs’ mental toughness. Down 56-42 with under 14 minutes left, SDSU went on a 23-9 run to even the score with 4:24 remaining.

Of course, Lamont Butler’s game-winning jumper will go down as one of the clutch moments in tournament history. 

There’s one factor to keep in mind Monday night: SDSU has played a series of close games this tournament — the Aztecs are the first team in tournament history to win Elite Eight and national semifinal games by one point apiece — while UConn has blown out five opponents in a row.

In a close game, the confidence that comes with these narrow victories will give the Aztecs an edge over the Huskies.

UConn is an unstoppable juggernaut. Right?

Well, it does seem that way.

The Huskies beat No. 13 Iona by 24 points and No. 5 Saint Mary’s by 15 points, both times pulling away after a sluggish first half. UConn dominated the second weekend, dispatching with No. 8 Arkansas by 23 points and No. 3 Gonzaga by 28 points. 

Against the Hurricanes, the Huskies went up 14-4 after seven minutes and led 37-24 at halftime. After Miami drew within eight points, 53-45, with 11:40 remaining, UConn went on a 7-0 run to push the lead to 60-45 with just over eight minutes left and won 72-59.

In doing so, the Huskies became the seventh team since 2000 to reach the championship game by defeating every opponent by a double-digit margin. Of the previous six, only 2016 North Carolina failed to win it all.

Over and over again since the start of tournament play, UConn has had the answer. Driven by an electric offense built around the two-man game of forward Adama Sanogo and guard Jordan Hawkins, the Huskies might have the personnel and pace to crack the code of San Diego State’s defense.

But don’t sleep on the Huskies’ defense, which hasn’t allowed more than 70 points in a game since Feb. 25 and has been very impressive the past two games. After Gonzaga hit on just 33% of its attempts from the field, Miami made only 32.3%. The Hurricanes were to convert just 8 of 23 layup attempts against the Huskies’ frontcourt.

The potential X-factors

Sanogo and Hawkins will receive the Aztecs’ undivided attention, leaving the Huskies’ supporting cast in a position to play the deciding role in the championship game.

Senior guard Tristen Newton had seven points, eight assists and five rebounds against the Hurricanes and is averaging 8.5 points, 6.8 assists and 6.3 rebounds per game since the tournament opener against Iona.

Freshman forward Alex Karaban has 31 points and 20 rebounds in his past three games. Freshman center Donovan Clingan has provided a big spark in tournament play, including six rebounds and a block in the win against Miami.

For SDSU, leading scorer Matt Bradley made only 3 of 17 attempts in wins against Alabama and Creighton but came alive against FAU with a team-leading 21 points. This was Bradley’s first 20-point game since scoring 23 points against UNLV on New Year’s Eve.

Containing Sanogo in the paint will take a team effort. Look for three frontcourt players to share the load in Nathan Mensah, Jaedon LeDee and Aguek Arop.

Why Connecticut will win

Because this is a team putting together one of the most dominant runs in NCAA men’s tournament history. The Huskies have beaten five teams by an average of 20.6 points.

Because Sanogo has been impossible to stop. The Aztecs are terrific defending the perimeter but weaker inside, giving Sanogo an opportunity to take control of the game in the paint.

Because UConn doesn’t lose on this stage. The program has played in four national championship games and won them all, beating Duke (1999), Georgia Tech (2004), Butler (2011) and Kentucky (2014).

Why San Diego State will win

Because this defense has what it takes. Forget that UConn is loaded. Forget that the Huskies are bulldozing everything in their path. The Aztecs have the defensive style and length to disrupt things and turn the tempo and pace of the game in their favor.

Because Bradley is heating up. His game against FAU could give him the jolt of confidence SDSU needs on the offensive end. More than anything, the Aztecs need a go-to scorer in key moments — Bradley can be that guy.

Because a wild-and-wacky tournament warrants a wild-and-wacky conclusion. UConn will almost undoubtedly be favored Monday night. But since when does this tournament care about favorites? Underdogs have ruled this tournament, so SDSU winning it all would be the perfect conclusion.

Follow colleges reporter Paul Myerberg on Twitter @PaulMyerberg

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Angel Reese, LSU legend share emotional embrace after historic win

LSU women’s basketball legend Seimone Augustus shared a wonderful embrace with 2023 women’s NCAA Tournament star Angel Reese after the Tigers won this year’s national title.

Augustus is one of the most accomplished women’s basketball players of all time, winning four WNBA titles with the Minnesota Lynx. Her No. 33 is retired by both LSU and Minnesota.

Her alma mater also put up a statue in her honor outside of its basketball arena this past January.

Of course, Augustus was on hand for LSU’s historic title win on Sunday against Iowa, and she shared in a really awesome hug with Reese after the victory. Augustus also shared some praise for Reese on the win.

Well, isn’t that just the coolest thing? LSU past and present embracing in such a fantastic moment for the program really is what March Madness is all about.

Reese will join Augustus in LSU women’s basketball history, and they’ll get to celebrate now in the school’s historic title.

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McEnroe, Agassi, Graf shine during first Pickleball Slam on ESPN

HOLLYWOOD, Fla. – Tennis legend Andre Agassi, 52, cannot wait to incorporate pickleball into his workout routine.

John McEnroe, 64, might feel otherwise after a weekend of pickleball events.

Along with Andy Roddick, 40, and Michael Chang, 51, the former tennis legends shined in a new sport during the first Pickleball Slam broadcast by ESPN on Sunday.

Agassi and Roddick earned a $1 million purse after beating McEnroe and Chang in a winner-take-all doubles match 21-15, 21-23, 12-10. Earlier McEnroe beat Agassi 15-13, 16-14, while Roddick cruised by Chang 15-10, 15-10 during singles matches at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino.

“I think it was a shot in the arm for us as old fogies that were on the tennis court, getting a chance to come with some crowd and energy that doesn’t happen too much anymore,” McEnroe told USA TODAY Sports.

McEnroe was the star of the show, engaging with the fans in attendance after a big point, while throwing his paddle on the court several times and raising his arms up in disgust and dismay. He was on the unfortunate end of the last two points, allowing Agassi and Roddick to win.

“I got so into it,” Agassi told USA TODAY Sports.

“You’re doing something you have no familiarity with, so it just begs for total focus, and you focus too much and you lose perspective. So, it just got the energy going. It got the nerves going. It came together and it was fun. It was a blast for everybody.”

Here are some highlights from the event:

McEnroe brings the theatre and competition

It didn’t take long for McEnroe to throw his racket in the air, raise his hand to the heavens, issue two challenges, and even take a point off the board in favor of Agassi during the first set.

Agassi argued the referee didn’t recite the score out loud before the serve, but McEnroe served and won the point, which would’ve given him a 14-12 lead.

“She called it, man!” McEnroe shouted to Agassi.

“I did call the score,” the referee said.

“It’s the first argument I was won in 40 years,’ McEnroe said. “But I don’t feel right because he wasn’t playing the rally.”

So, the point came off the board.

“I’ve never seen this side,” Agassi said to McEnroe as they resumed play.

It was the first of many interactions between the tennis legends to the enjoyment of fans in attendance and viewers at home.

“John’s tremendous at delivering the theatre, and I think early on his outbursts were theatrical and later on they were authentic,” ESPN play-by-play announcer Chris Fowler said.

“You knew the competitive juices between these four guys, who do not like to lose at anything ever, were going to take over.”

Steffi Graf joins the fun

Graf, a tennis legend in her own right with 22 Grand Slam singles titles, received a loud ovation from fans as she was being interviewed by ESPN.

The ovation motivated McEnroe to interrupt the interview, and give her a paddle to play a point during the doubles match.

“That was a big surprise. I wasn’t filled into that part,” Graf said.

“It’s just fun. We’ve been enjoying it as a family and to see that sport grow and find a lot of new fans, it’s just been good.”

Graf traded volleys with both Agassi, her husband, and Roddick as Chang stepped to the side, while McEnroe went to the nearby bench to rest.

Agassi hit the net on the volley, earning Graf the point and another ovation.

“Steffi is a legend,” McEnroe said. “It just seemed like a good idea so I could stretch a little while she was playing. It’s called a free timeout.’

McEnroe, Roddick have trouble in the kitchen

It was only natural for the tennis stars to struggle with the non-volley zone, also known as the kitchen, on the pickleball courts. Players are not allowed to step into the squared off area closest to the net where they can commit foot faults.

Roddick’s paddle hit the area during his singles match with Chang, to which he screamed toward the referee:

“I got to pay attention to my feet and this thing?!” Roddick said.

“Maybe we should’ve had a meeting about this,” Roddick pleaded with the referee.

“I didn’t have time to tell you all the rules,” the referee said.

McEnroe also showed his dismay several times when his foot was caught over the NVZ line during both matches. But when Roddick was called for a foot fault during the second set of their doubles match, McEnroe was pleased.

“Great call,” McEnroe told the referee.

Final match brought the nerves and fun

The final set in the doubles match was a race to 11, and it brought the intensity out of all four legends.

McEnroe and Chang led until Agassi hit a wicked volley that screamed past McEnroe to tie the set at 9.

Agassi and Roddick took 10-9 lead, before McEnroe waved off Chang on the next point to tie it at 10.

McEnroe hit the net on his return to go down 11-10, and hit the pickleball out to give Agassi and Roddick the match and purse.

“Game!” Roddick screamed as he celebrated with Agassi.

“These guys have played in a whole lot of major finals, and you saw some nerves come onto them because this sport is not second nature to them,’ Fowler said.

“With the whole thing coming down to a couple of points, they didn’t want to be the guys to blow it for their whole team.”

Deion Sanders, Pat McAfee tune in from home

Count Colorado football coach Deion Sanders and radio host Pat McAfee, fresh off an appearance at WrestleMania, among many who tuned in on ESPN.

Attracting a wide audience both in attendance and from home was the goal for event organizers David Levy and Chris Weil, co-CEO of Horizon Sports & Experiences, and Jon Venison, who owns InsideOut Sports & Entertainment.

“I think we just showcased the best four racket players in the world playing the new, fastest growing sport,” Levy said.

The Pickleball Slam was the first of a five-event deal with Hard Rock, and organizers hope the participants will play again.

“I can tell you 100 percent, pickleball is part of my life,” Agassi said. “That doesn’t mean I want to go and compete in tournaments. But I’m telling you it’s something I’m going to do easily on a weekly basis for exercise, and spending time with friends. It’s the best.”

As for McEnroe, he may give it a shot again.

“It would have been easy to say yes if I had won, but we were close,” McEnroe said in his classic deadpanned nature. “I sort of feel like I’d like to try it one more time at least because I was so close.”

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