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Bitcoin is something of a paradox. Its name suggests a single and unified “object” (a type of cryptocurrency), yet it’s essentially an umbrella term mixing together several conflated and perhaps conflicting views. In other words, there’s a lot of sentiment and speculation surrounding a “thing” whose fundamentals lay largely absent.

Surprisingly, it’s this tangled web of clashing opinions and emotions that appears to be fueling the cryptocurrency’s resurgence. Is it an alternative currency (who is using it)? Is it simply a speculative asset (akin to the proverbial tulip)? Does its monetary value stem from the perceived inadequacy of other financial assets to maintain value, due to a lack of intrinsic worth (a repudiation of the fiat system)? Or is it an odd stand-in for investment in DeFi or blockchain (with Ether being a more suitable choice)?

The crypto-anarchist dream … disrupted. In essence, the Bitcoin embraced by today’s Gen Z significantly differs from the version anticipated by crypto-anarchists of the late 80s and 90s (refer to the Crypto Anarchist Manifesto for more insight).

Bitcoin’s price path primarily depends on market movements originating from these vastly divided, incongruous, and diverse perspectives and notions. How’s that for certainty?

Bitcoin Shatters 10-Month High, Breaks Above $30K

Let’s hear from a few industry insiders (pro-Bitcoin):

“BTC is also being seen as a reliable store of value De-dollarization is also increasingly becoming part of the narrative, which is further accelerating BTC adoption. With BTC, in short, you are your own bank,” says Richard Mico (CEO and chief legal officer of Fin-Tech company Banxa. (emphasis mine.)

“Amidst heightened geopolitical instability, faltering banking systems, and mounting concerns surrounding reserve currencies, Bitcoin has emerged as the reliable refuge that many had anticipated,” says Bob Ras, co-founder of blockchain company Sologenic. (emphasis mine).

So, are we witnessing a price surge propelled by institutional and individual investors, with the speculative wager based on the belief that Bitcoin has become a formidable, and to some extent legitimate, “safe-haven” asset? 

Ultimately, the prospects of risk and reward rest on position sizing—namely, whether you’re holding Bitcoin as part of a larger diversified portfolio versus “betting the farm” on a single hand.

With that said, let’s take a look at the technicals.

CHART 1: BITCOIN TO US DOLLAR. After breaking above the 30K level, could Bitcoin continue higher? Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Note the Broadening Top that resulted in an upward breakout (its stats also tend to favor the upside; see link for more insights on this).For the braver souls, note the early entry point in the January breakout, supported by high volume and the lagging span (which crossed above the cloud, conversion line, and base line).Also, note the cloud support projected 26 periods from the current price.Both the RSI and Chaikin Money Flow are screaming “divergence,” indicating the likelihood of a near-term pullback (though bear in mind that bullish sentiment can keep prices elevated for a lengthy period of time).The Stochastic Oscillator also indicates a cross above “overbought” territory.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s speculative prospects moving forward rests on its perception as a safe-haven asset. With that in mind, this week’s inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and other geopolitical developments, especially those concerning the BRICS reserve currency and de-dollarization, will determine whether Bitcoin’s a balloon rising on hot air or a solid vehicle fueled by economic and geopolitical instability.

As a trader, this is the dilemma that underpins your wager. As an investor, this may be just another small egg in your basket. Good luck!

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Junk bonds are high-risk, high-yield bonds issued by companies with lower credit ratings. These bonds are also known as speculative-grade bonds or high-yield bonds, as they offer a higher rate of return than investment-grade bonds, but come with a higher risk of default. Companies that issue junk bonds have lower credit ratings because they may have a history of financial instability, may be highly leveraged, or may operate in industries with volatile revenue streams. Hence, they are the ultimate measure of risk on/off, because the nature of these bonds is, well, higher risk.

With CPI, PPI, on tap, the technical setup in junk bonds as seen on the weekly chart of HYG is very interesting. There are so many calls for recession, citing all kinds of reasons from declining money supply to more bank failures to a housing crash. However, to us (and, at this point, junk bonds) those calls are based on an old paradigm that, since COVID, has forever changed.

Just for giggles, how can we go into a recession when we were never really in an expansion or even a period of growth? 

COVID shut the economy down, but other than a return to normal, have we seen any real economic growth apart from the labor market? And, of course, the price of raw materials–but that’s a story for another time.

This, of course, supports a variation on the stagflation theme. Nevertheless, junk bonds are a hair away from confirming a bull flag. The breakout corresponds perfectly with the 50-week moving average. Should the junk bonds rally more from here, that takes them to the next level of resistance or the 200-week moving average at 78.00. Considering the bonds’ low volatility on an average day, that could take the market up to test August highs or around 430 in the SPY.

Of course, we must also consider that HYG does not break out. A move under 73.00 would mean risk off. However, the Real Motion Momentum Indicator shows a positive divergence, in that the momentum has cleared the 50-WMA before the price has.

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.

Mish talks opportunites in the market in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish talks Beyond Meat (BYND) in this appearance on Business First AM.

In this guest appearance on the Madam Trader podcast, recorded March 20, Mish shares her journey from special education teacher to commodoties trader and now trading educator. Hear her insights on the spring 2023 market conditions and how to harness the right skills to succeed.

Follow Mish as she breaks down current market conditions for her friends across the pond on CMC Markets.

Mish talks about Dominion Energy with Angela Miles in this appearance on Business First AM.

Coming Up:

April 13th: The Final Bar with David Keller on StockCharts TV and Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 2 inside trading days in a row, so range break good to follow.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Over some recent consolidation, so watch 336 to hold.Nasdaq (QQQ): Also 2 inside trading days in a row, so range break good to follow.Regional Banks (KRE): 41.28 March 24 low held; now has to clear 44.Semiconductors (SMH): 258 resistance with support at 250.Transportation (IYT): Confirmed phase back top. Caution from Bearish–worth watching, as this is demandBiotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area.Retail (XRT): Also a good comeback, with 64 the next area to breach.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

Nonfarm payrolls rose about in line with expectations in March as the labor market showed increased signs of slowing.

The Labor Department reported Friday that payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000 and below the upwardly revised 326,000 in February.

The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%, with the decrease coming as labor force participation increased to its highest level since before the Covid pandemic.

Though it was close to what economists had expected, the total was the lowest monthly gain since December 2020 and comes amid efforts from the Federal Reserve to slow labor demand in order to cool inflation.

Along with the payroll gains came a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, pushing the 12-month increase to 4.2%, the lowest level since June 2021. The average work week edged lower to 34.4 hours.

Leisure and hospitality led sectors with growth of 72,000 jobs, below the 95,000 pace of the past six months. Government (47,000), professional and business services (39,000) and health care (34,000) also posted solid increases. Retail saw a loss of 15,000 positions.

The report comes amid a bevy of signs that job creation is on wane.

In separate reports this week, companies reported that layoffs surged in March, up nearly 400% from a year ago, while jobless claims were elevated and private payroll growth also appeared to slow. The Labor Department also had reported that job openings fell below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years.

That all has followed a year-long Fed campaign to loosen up what had been a historically tight labor market. The central bank has boosted its benchmark borrowing rate by 4.75 percentage points, the quickest tightening cycle since the early 1980s and an effort to bring down spiraling inflation.

Several Fed officials said this week they remain committed to the inflation fight and see interest rates staying elevated at least in the near term. Markets, though, remain skeptical. Current pricing indicates a slight tilt towards the probability of one last rate hike in May, but with cuts totaling about a full percentage point by the end of 2023.

Investors worry that the Fed move are likely to result in at least a shallow recession, something the bond market has been pointing to since mid-2022.

In its most recent calculation, through the end of March, the New York Fed said the spread between 3-month and 10-year Treasurys are indicating about a 58% probability of recession in the next 12 months. The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker is indicating growth of just 1.5% in the first quarter, after pointing to a gain of as much as 3.5% just two weeks ago.

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The FBI recently warned consumers against using free public charging stations, saying crooks have managed to hijack public chargers that can infect devices with malware, or software that can give hackers access to your phone, tablet or computer.

“Avoid using free charging stations in airports, hotels or shopping centers,” a tweet from the FBI’s Denver field office said. “Bad actors have figured out ways to use public USB ports to introduce malware and monitoring software onto devices. Carry your own charger and USB cord and use an electrical outlet instead.”

The FBI offers similar guidance on its website to avoid public chargers. The bulletin didn’t point to any recent instances of consumer harm from juice jacking, and the FBI didn’t immediately return a request for comment on what prompted the reminder from its Denver office.

The Federal Communications Commission has also warned about “juice jacking,” as the malware loading scheme is known, since 2021.

Consumer devices with compromised USB cables can be hijacked through software that can then siphon off usernames and passwords, the FCC warned at the time. The commission told consumers to avoid those public stations.

More from CNBC

S&P 500 falls to start the week as investors’ recession fears grow Outlook for credit access hits record low while inflation expectations jump, NY Fed survey shows DOJ asks appeals court to keep abortion pill mifepristone on market as litigation plays out

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More than 200 biopharma groups, which include a number of drugmakers led by Pfizer, have signed an open letter blasting the decision by Texas federal Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk to issue a hold on federal approval of mifepristone, the most commonly used method of abortion in the U.S.

The letter criticized Kacsmaryk for having issued the ruling despite having ‘no scientific training’ and said his decision has ‘undermined the bipartisan authority granted by Congress to the Food and Drug Administration to approve and regulate safe, effective medicines for every American.’

‘The decision ignores decades of scientific evidence and legal precedent,’ the drugmakers wrote. ‘Judge Kacsmaryk’s act of judicial interference has set a precedent for diminishing FDA’s authority over drug approvals, and in so doing, creates uncertainty for the entire biopharma industry.’

In addition to Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, the letter was signed by representatives for Merck and Biogen, as well as industry nonprofit groups like the Center for Medicine in the Public Interest.  

In his ruling last week, Kacsmaryk sided with an anti-abortion group that had challenged the FDA’s decades-old approval of the drug.

‘The Court does not second-guess FDA’s decision-making lightly,’ Kacsmaryk wrote in his decision. ‘But here, FDA acquiesced on its legitimate safety concerns — in violation of its statutory duty — based on plainly unsound reasoning and studies that did not support its conclusions.’

The case is likely to make its way to the Supreme Court.

Separately, the primary lobbying arm of the pharmaceutical industry, PhRMA, issued a statement Monday saying Kacsmaryk’s ruling undermines the regulatory process.

‘The FDA is the gold standard for determining whether a medicine is safe and effective for people to use,’ the organization said. ‘While PhRMA and our members are not a party to this litigation, our focus is on ensuring a policy environment that supports the agency’s ability to regulate and provides access to FDA-approved medicines.’

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Gov. Phil Murphy has signed an executive order aimed at prioritizing skills and work experience over college degrees for some state jobs in New Jersey.

The order signed Monday directs the state’s civil service commission to identify jobs that require college degrees and determine which should have hiring guidelines revised to emphasize practical skills and experience over academic attainment.

Officials said hundreds of applicants each year are rejected ‘or dissuaded from applying’ due to educational requirements for state jobs with salaries that can top $120,000 per year.

‘Every American should have the ability to attain a good job with growth opportunities and secure their place in the middle class, regardless of whether or not they have a college degree,’ Murphy said in a statement.

Officials said six other states, including Pennsylvania, have taken similar action to de-emphasize college degrees in hiring.

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Former President Donald Trump’s legal team on Monday appealed a court order that required his former vice president, Mike Pence, to testify as part of the Justice Department’s probe into the Jan. 6, 2021, riot and Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, according to reports.

The appeal came just days after Pence said he would not contest a subpoena to testify for the special counsel, though he had initially argued that the subpoena violated the ‘speech or debate’ clause of the Constitution.

The speech or debate clause protects U.S. lawmakers from being questioned about comments they make while in the House and Senate. Pence argued the clause protected him due to the vice president’s role as president of the Senate.

Chief Judge James Boasberg of the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia agreed that Pence was correct in asserting that the speech or debate clause limits what prosecutors can ask of him, so Pence agreed not challenge the subpoena and testify.

But lawyers for Trump are attempting their own appeal of Pence’s court-ordered testimony in a legal filing that remains under seal.

Special Counsel Jack Smith, who filed the subpoena for Pence’s testimony, is looking into both documents and testimony related to the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol as well as Trump’s possible mishandling of classified documents after leaving office.

A spokesperson for Pence declined to comment on the Trump appeal.

Fox News Digital’s Anders Hagstorm contributed to this report.

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Rep. Nancy Mace, R-S.C., on Monday joined Democrats in their call for the Biden administration to ignore a Texas judge’s ruling on the abortion medication known as mifepristone, blasting the court decision as ‘unconstitutional.’

Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas ruled late Friday that the Food and Drug Administration’s (FDA) approval of mifepristone was unlawful, a decision that effectively banned the sale of the drug. But the issue became a legal quagmire when the Texas ruling was followed within hours by a conflicting court decision out of Washington state that ordered the FDA to maintain the drug’s availability.

On CNN Monday, Mace said she agrees with Democrats who say that Biden should ignore the Texas decision: ‘It’s not up to us to decide as legislators … whether or not this is the right drug to use or not, No. 1, so I agree with ignoring it at this point.’

Asked by Fox News Digital why she believes the FDA should brush off the Texas ban, Mace said the decision was unlawful because the judge based his decision on an invalid law.

‘I disagree with the ruling,’ she said. ‘The judge used a law from 1873, which the Supreme Court deemed unconstitutional in 1983. And so the entire basis for the ruling, I would argue, was unconstitutional in that regard.’

She took it a step further in a separate interview with Fox News Digital and accused her fellow Republicans of being ‘on the wrong side of history’ on abortion rights, clarifying that she is pro-life.

Mace declined to say whether she was worried about whether ignoring the Texas judge would set a dangerous legal precedent. But she did say these sorts of decisions are being made, pointing to Missouri officials in a county who passed an ordinance to break its ties with the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) after claiming the body was unconstitutional.

‘Look at Camden County in Missouri, I mean, they’re ignoring the ATF, saying that they’re unconstitutional,’ Mace said. ‘Both sides are fighting things that they believe are unconstitutional.’

‘Both sides fight things that they believe are unconstitutional,’ she added. ‘If it’s OK for one side, it should be OK for both sides. And I think that’s what we’re missing here in this argument.’

‘The other thing that we’re missing, too, is that [Republicans] are not on the right side of history, if we’re going to take the extreme position on this issue, because the vast majority of Americans are not with us on that. They’re just not,’ the moderate GOP lawmaker said.

On Monday, the Biden administration stepped up its fight against the Texas ruling by filing a request for a stay on the order that’s backed by the FDA and Health & Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra.

Several Democrats spoke in favor of that decision. For example, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., both called on the Biden administration to ignore the abortion pill decision, which prompted criticism from Republican lawmakers over the left’s disregard for the judiciary.

‘The left is continuing its assault on the rule of law,’ Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., told Fox News Digital. ‘Whether it’s packing the Supreme Court, indicting the former president on flimsy charges or urging the administration to ignore a federal judge’s ruling, the left has made it clear they have contempt for the rule of law and care only about power.’

Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, compared the Democrats leading the demand to the southern Democrats of the last century who were resisting the civil rights movement.

‘Like Southern Democrats against civil rights in the 1950s, progressive Democrats today are demanding that a federal agency ignore a legal ruling they don’t like,’ the Texas conservative wrote on Twitter.

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Democrats were dealt another blow from within their own ranks this week as yet another state lawmaker declared he was leaving the party.

According to a Monday report by The Advocate, a Louisiana-based newspaper, state Rep. Jeremy LaCombe announced he had left the Democratic Party and would be registering as a Republican.

It was not immediately clear what prompted LaCombe’s departure, however he is now the second Louisiana Democrat in less than a month to switch party affiliations, and the third nationwide after another state lawmaker in North Carolina did the same.

Last month, Louisiana state Rep. Francis Thompson gave Republicans in the state House a supermajority after he switched his party affiliation, and earlier this month, North Carolina state Rep. Tricia Cotham gave Republicans in the state House a supermajority with her switch as well.

The switches come as President Biden faces a near-record low approval rating among key groups, including women (43% now vs. 42% low), voters ages 45+ (41% vs. 39% low), suburban voters (41% vs. 39% low), rural voters (31% vs. 30% low) and Democrats (81% vs. 78% low) – Democratic men in particular (79% vs. 78% low), according to a recent Fox News poll.

Biden is also at a low mark of 41% approval among suburban women. 

Additionally, a separate recent poll found that only a third of Americans believed Biden deserved to be re-elected in 2024.

Fox News’ Dana Blanton contributed to this report.

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We recently learned a lesson which was more than three decades in the making. 

The lesson partially stems from two seemingly unrelated events.

The world noted the one-year anniversary of the war in Ukraine at the end of February. And after an air incursion by a spy balloon, saber-rattling over Taiwan and TikTok dance videos blowing up everyone’s phone, the U.S. Congress suddenly grew more serious about China. This culminated in a prime-time House hearing over the winter studying the threat posed by Beijing by a special House committee designed just to study problems between the U.S. and China. 

The Ukraine and China episodes are connected. And they explain a great deal about the Cold War and where the west thought the world was going in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

Let’s go back in time.

1989 was a heady period.

It began in the spring when thousands of students and demonstrators crowded Tiananmen Square in Beijing pushing for economic reform, free speech and democracy.

An iconic set of images stands out from Tiananmen Square. A long column of Chinese Type 59 tanks rolls down a massive, tree-lined boulevard near the square. From the left, a lone, unidentified, Chinese man steps out into the street holding satchels in either hand. The man stands stoically as the tanks approach, slowing to a crawl. There is a momentary impasse as the man gestures wildly with his right arm. The tank then maneuvers to the side to drive around the man. But the man gallops to the left, blocking the tanks from passing. The man then stutter-steps, left and right as the tank tries to get around him. ‘Tank man’ finally climbs onto the tank and appears to speak briefly with someone inside the tank. 

He then resumes his human roadblock.

No one really knows what happened to ‘tank man.’

Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping declared martial law to clear the square. It’s unknown exactly how many Chinese were killed or wounded.

But everyone thought this was a seminal moment. The movement by the people was too powerful. Things would eventually trend in a different direction. Perhaps toward democracy.
Then came the fall of 1989. 

The Berlin Wall fell. The Eastern bloc fell. The Soviet Union disintegrated by the end of 1991. 

It was said that ‘western TV signals’ helped undo communist regimes in Eastern Europe. Citizens of those countries would watch reruns of ‘Dallas’ and ‘Miami Vice’ to see how the west lived. It was said that U.S. finally prevailed in the Cold War – not through military might – but with ‘Madonna and Coke.’

McDonald’s opened in Moscow. In the early 1990s, McDonald’s opened more than 4,000 restaurants in China. Business experts noted that at the time ‘one-fifth’ of the world’s potential Coke drinkers and McDonald’s diners resided in China. 

By the late 1990s, even former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev starred in a Pizza Hut commercial.

Experts believed that free trade and capitalism advocated by the west might moderate totalitarian movements and curb dictators. Oppressive regimes would be no match for forces of the market and economic opportunity.

Fast-forward to today.

Russia reverted toward its old ways, punctuated by the death and carnage its war unleashed on Ukraine. 

China is now a cyber-security state. The U.S. Department of Energy believes China may have sparked the coronavirus pandemic, with COVID-19 leaking from a Wuhan lab. Beijing now tracks Chinese nationals on U.S. soil via various ‘police stations’ set up in American cities. We mentioned the spy balloon and TikTok. Military experts believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a high possibility in the coming years.

This is a pretty bleak assessment of the world’s geo-political situation compared to what was anticipated more than three decades ago.

The period the U.S. and the west now enters may be more dangerous than the most icy days of the Cold War. 

‘Over the past three decades, both Democrats and Republicans underestimated (China) and assumed that trade and investment would lead to democracy,’ said Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, D-Ill, the top Democrat on the House China panel. ‘Instead, the opposite happened.’

It’s hard to argue with that assessment.

‘As China’s economy has grown more than ten-fold since gaining access to U.S. and world markets, (China) has among other things, strengthened its authoritarian control at home,’ said Krishnamoorthi. ‘The goal (of China) has become clear, to displace the U.S. and other competitors. Especially in tomorrow’s strategic industries.’

The lesson the U.S. learned? They overstated optimism which brimmed as the curtains fell on the Cold War and democratic movements rustled in China.

The future the west expected in Eastern Europe and China never materialized. It could be argued that the U.S. found itself on a stronger footing near the end of the Cold War with the Soviet Union. That’s because you had two, reasonably equal superpowers. Now, you have a nuclear-armed Russia which eschewed democracy, ruled by an unpredictable Vladimir Putin. That might mean the U.S. and west is worse off in that relationship.

When it comes to China, the U.S. and westernized democracies are definitely worse off. Congress is considering banning TikTok since its technology pierces the privacy of 152 million Americans. There’s a potential threat of war over Taiwan. It’s doubtful the U.S. would sit that one out.

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas, just visited Taipei. He told colleague Aisha Hasnie that his committee has a ‘license’ to repel an attack militarily with the authorization of a use of force.

‘I think if communist China invades Taiwan, I think that is certainly if the American people support this, the Congress follow,’ said McCaul.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., recently met with Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen in California.

When the Chinese embassy in Washington rebuked American lawmakers for heading to Taiwan and McCarthy huddling with Tsai, the Speaker scoffed that Beijing didn’t dictate with whom he would meet.

Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., has been a thorn for China over human rights since a visit to Tiananmen Square in the early 1990s. To describe the relationship between Pelosi and McCarthy as ‘frosty’ does a disservice to Jack Frost. But Pelosi uncharacteristically applauded McCarthy for meeting with Tsai. Pelosi praised her Golden State colleague saying McCarthy should ‘be commended’ for ‘leadership’ huddling with Tsai. 

Now China is conducting military exercises in supposed retaliation for the recent enclaves between U.S. lawmakers and Taiwanese officials.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Joseph Wu accused Beijing of engaging in what he termed ‘cognitive warfare,’ suggesting that the U.S. might not assist Taipei should China attack. 

‘We are not counting on the U.S. to directly intervene in war,’ said Wu. ‘But, if for Taiwan to be able to defend itself, there’s several things we need. One is for the United States to continue to provide defense weapons for us.’

Appearing on Fox, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., declared he’d ‘be very much open to using U.S. forces to defend Taiwan.’

But some Republicans are resistant to the U.S. supporting Ukraine. Most lawmakers from both sides back U.S. help for Taiwan. Where the public stands about American involvement in a shooting war with China is unclear. But don’t forget that there’s significant fatigue from two decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq. In fact, the Senate just voted to repeal two war authorizations for Iraq, one dating all the way back to the early 1990s.

So reconsider that optimism about the future three decades ago. 

‘For the time being, it’s still up to us to decide if that’s the future we want for our children. But it won’t be for much longer,’ said House China committee chairman Mike Gallagher, R-Wisc., at the prime-time hearing. ‘Time is not on our side. Just because this Congress is divided, we cannot afford to waste the next two years lingering in legislative limbo or pandering for the press.’

The future is now. 

And that bright future everyone hoped for 30 years ago may seem a lot darker today.

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