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A threatening letter containing white powder was sent to Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office Wednesday, Fox News has learned. 

The New York Police Department and the city’s Department of Environmental Protection responded to the scene. 

‘NYPD testing determined the powder found in the mailroom to be non-hazardous,’ Bragg’s office said in a statement. ‘We thank our partners at the NYPD Emergency Service Unit and the NYC Department of Environmental Protection for their quick response.’

The malicious mailing comes a week after Bragg indicted former President Donald Trump on multiple charges allegedly involving falsifying business records. 

Trump, the leading Republican in the 2024 race for the White House, pleaded not guilty to the charges and shortly after departed from New York City for his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

The incident marks the second time the DA’s office has been targeted in recent weeks. A package with white powder was delivered to the mail room in the building housing the DA’s office last month.

A note stating, ‘Alvin – I’ll kill you’ was also found in an envelope. That package arrived amid Bragg weighing whether to proceed with an indictment against Trump for alleged hush money payments made to porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016.

Bragg is alleging that Trump falsified New York business records in order to ‘conceal damaging information and unlawful activity from American voters before and after the 2016 election.’ 

On Tuesday, Bragg filed a federal lawsuit against U.S. Rep. Jim Jordan, alleging that the Republican lawmaker from Ohio is trying to wage a campaign of intimidation over his prosecution of Trump. 

Bragg is asking a judge to invalidate subpoenas that Jordan, the chair of the House Judiciary Committee, has or plans to issue as part of an investigation of Bragg’s handling of the Trump case.

Fox News’ Bradford Betz and Kyle Morris contributed to this report. 

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources’ board approved a resolution Wednesday asking legislators for more money to manage wildlife habitat and maintain amenities on public lands.

Board member Greg Kazmierski introduced the resolution after complaining in February that funding to manage wildlife and maintain amenities on public lands such as boat landings, parking lots and signs isn’t keeping pace with land purchases.

The Department of Natural Resources manages more than 1.6 million acres of property. Republican lawmakers have been trying for years to slow or stop land purchases, arguing they drive up state debt.

State funding for one of the department’s responsibilities — wildlife management — has grown from around $7.2 million in fiscal year 2011-12 to around $11.2 million in fiscal year 2022-23, a department budget analyst noted in February.

The total state budget for public lands this year is $107 million. There’s also some federal funding.

Kazmierski told the board that’s not enough, although his resolution doesn’t specify how much funding there should be. It calls on the Legislature’s finance committee to provide ‘adequate funding’ for habitat management programs and public lands maintenance. The board approved it unanimously.

Kazmierski, who was appointed to the board by former GOP Gov. Scott Walker, said the point is to raise awareness about management needs on public land.

Republican state Sen. Howard Marklein, one of the finance committee’s co-chairs, was noncommittal about the funding request in a email statement. He did no say whether the committee might increase or decrease funding for managing public lands, saying only that ‘we are looking at all our options.’

The committee’s other co-chair, Republican state Rep. Mark Born, didn’t immediately respond to a message seeking comment.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

A Trump-backed Republican in Ohio whose military record was called into question during his unsuccessful 2022 congressional campaign announced Wednesday that he plans to run again next year.

J.R. Majewski launched his latest effort to win the GOP nomination and take on Democratic U.S. Rep. Marcy Kaptur in a video posted on Twitter.

‘This campaign is about the working-class citizens of Ohio,’ he said. ‘This campaign is about putting America first. This campaign is about fighting for you. Last cycle, we started a movement. This cycle, we win.’

Majewski, of Port Clinton, previously worked in the nuclear power industry. He drew attention for drawing a sprawling banner supporting former President Donald Trump across his lawn, and also had been a pro-Trump hip-hop performer and promoter of the baseless right-wing QAnon conspiracy theory. He was also at the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol, though he was not accused of any wrongdoing there.

Majewski was the surprise winner of last year’s Republican primary for the Toledo-area 9th Congressional District. He bested two sitting Republican state lawmakers to secure the nomination, but ultimately lost to Kaptur, the longest serving woman in Congress, by more than 13 percentage points.

The Associated Press reported in September that Majewski had misrepresented his military record to voters. He claimed that he served in the Air Force in Afghanistan, but public records indicated that he had never deployed there and instead spent six months on a base in Qatar. Majewski denied the report and defiantly remained in the race, saying his deployment was classified and so not present in public records.

The AP later reported that Majewski was demoted in the military for driving drunk on an air base, another contradiction to his previous statements.

Majewski was among Ohio Republicans that Trump promoted at a November rally in Vandalia, Ohio.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams on Wednesday named Kathleen Corradi, a former elementary school teacher and lifelong anti-rat activist, as the city’s first director of rodent mitigation.Several former mayors, including Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat Bill de Blasio, have tried and failed to conquer the city’s notorious rat problem.’You’ll be seeing a lot of me and a lot less rats,’ Corradi said as Adams introduced her.

Every New York City mayor has waged war — and mostly lost — against one of humanity’s most cunning and enduring foes: rattus norvegicus. But has the city’s vilest enemy, better known as the common brown rat, finally met its match?

Mayor Eric Adams introduced a former elementary school teacher and anti-rat activist as his new ‘rat czar’ on Wednesday. Officially, Kathleen Corradi, the mayor’s new hire, will be known as the director of rodent mitigation.

Corradi is tasked with battling the potentially millions of rats lurking in myriad urban nooks and crannies, subway tunnels and empty lots.

Hers is a new job, which the city advertised with a help-wanted ad seeking applicants who are ‘bloodthirsty,’ possess ‘killer instincts’ and could commit to the ‘wholesale slaughter’ of rats.

‘When I first saw this job posting, I wasn’t sure if it was real. ‘Blood thirsty’ is not a word you usually see in a job description and it’s certainly not a word I usually (use to) describe myself,’ Corradi said in a news conference at a Harlem park.

‘You’ll be seeing a lot of me and a lot less rats,’ she vowed.

Rats have long bedeviled the city, a top public concern along with crime, homelessness and exorbitant rents. No traps nor poisonous bait have fully succeeded in reducing their numbers. Rats have thrived in subway tunnels and burrows within empty lots and city parks.

‘Rats are smart, they are resilient,’ said Adams, a Democrat. ‘Many of us live in communities where rats think they run the city.’

Over the past year, residents have called in almost 3.2 million rat sightings to the city’s 311 service request line, just shy of the record number of complaints in 2021.

‘Rats have proven to be one of the most formidable opponents that humans have faced. Here in New York City, we’re locked in a constant battle,’ said Councilmember Erik Bottcher, whose district includes Times Square.

New York City’s approach is in contrast to some efforts by animal-rights advocates in Paris, where there could be more rats than its 2.2 million people, perhaps twice as many, according to some estimates. A strike by garbage workers left some streets teeming with rats.

The animal rights group Paris Animaux Zoopolis has been trying to convince Parisians that ‘rats are not our enemies!’

Adams thinks otherwise.

As Brooklyn borough president, he once showed reporters a bucket filled with a toxic soup meant to drown rats.

‘There were people that were yelling, you know, ’Oh you murderer. You murderer!” the mayor said. ‘You know, we can’t be philosophical about things that impact the quality of life of New Yorkers.’

And he’s had trouble controlling them even outside the Brooklyn townhouse he owns — something he mentioned in jest Wednesday.

In February, the mayor challenged a pair of citations issued to him by his own health department for not doing enough to control rodents outside the townhouse. The administrative judge sided with the mayor on one citation but ordered him to pay $300 for the other.

In November, the mayor signed legislation intended to reduce the city’s rat problems, including new rules limiting how long garbage can sit out on curbs.

‘The fewer rats the better,’ said Nina Daugherty, a Harlem resident who came upon the news conference while jogging through a local park.

Corradi’s first task will be to launch a ‘rat mitigation zone’ in Harlem, where the city will invest $3.5 million to roll out ‘an accelerated rat reduction plan’ deploying 19 full-time and 14 seasonal employees to combat rats. Strategies that work in Harlem will be extended elsewhere.

Besides the ‘ick,’ factor, rats can spread disease like leptospirosis. On rare occasions, the ailment can lead to meningitis and cause the kidneys and liver to fail.

Corradi said her job will be to combat rats by taking away their food sources — often garbage and food scraps.

‘I have a long history with rats,’ she said. As a 10-year-old, she gathered signatures for an anti-rat petition in her neighborhood. She also led efforts by New York City schools to control the vermin in school buildings.

It’s not the first time a New York mayor has appointed a rat czar. Rudy Giuliani anointed one of his deputy mayors to handle the job — although Corradi will be the city’s first director of rodent mitigation.

During his time in office, Giuliani established a task force, which spawned a boot camp called the ‘rodent academy’ that still produces cadres of foot soldiers hoping to vanquish the city’s army of rats.

Former Mayor Bill de Blasio budgeted more than $30 million in his own failed bid to conquer rats. One plan relied on dry ice to suffocate rats in their burrows. It proved comedic at one demonstration for journalists when workers chased — but never caught — one of the fleeing vermin.

‘Everyone tried,’ Adams said, acknowledging the city’s noble efforts — and ultimate failures.

”We needed someone that was going to put all the pieces together and all the players together to coordinate this entire symphony of fighters. We needed a maestro.’

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The war in Ukraine is the war you’ve heard about the most over the past year.

A war over Taiwan is the war you may hear about next.

The conflict in Ukraine certainly carries geopolitical implications. There are issues of grain for Western Europe. Oil from Russia. And, there’s speculation over possible Russian designs on locales besides Ukraine.

But a battle over Taiwan could make Ukraine appear like a neighborhood skirmish.

It would all start with a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

‘Everybody thinks it’s going to happen,’ said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., on Fox. ‘The only difference of opinion is when it’s going to happen.’

Gimenez notes that many Chinese and intelligence analysts believe war comes by w.

But Gimenez is skeptical of that hypothesis.

‘I think it’s going to be earlier than that,’ said Gimenez.

What does this mean for the United States?

‘In all likelihood, the U.S. would be involved in a shooting war,’ said longtime China observer Gordon Chang. ‘If China were to invade Taiwan or invade some other country in the region, I think that you would see the United States coalesce very quickly to defend those countries.’

Where does that leave the U.S.?

‘We should be making it very clear that we will defend Taiwan,’ said Rep. Guy Reschenthaler, R-Penn.

Would that mean sending troops? Or would the U.S. engage in a form of proxy warfare like what it’s done for the past 14 months with Ukraine?

‘I would be willing to fight for Taiwan,’ said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on Fox. ‘I’d be very much open to using U.S. forces to defend Taiwan because it’s in our national security interest to do so.’

‘My stomach’s been upside down since we started to hear of potential blockades of the Straits of Taiwan because of our dependency on Taiwan for so many things,’ said Rep. Debbie Dingell, D-Mich., a former General Motors Executive. ‘When I started in the auto industry, 40 percent of the chips in the world were made in this country. Now we’re down to less than 12 percent.’

A Chinese blockade of Taiwan could reverberate globally, sparking market shocks. It could even cripple trade with Japan, South Korea and Australia. That’s to say nothing of what a war could mean should North Korea – a Chinese ally – move provocatively against its neighbors.

‘We could see the North invade South Korea or it could cause provocations that would create a diversion that would require us to divert our assets to the Korean Peninsula,’ warned Chang. ‘What we’re talking about is global war. War can spread from Ukraine, both east and west, across the Eurasian landmass and in North Africa, because we can see the proxies of China and Russia.’

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., just met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen at the Reagan Library in California. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Tex., recently led a bipartisan Congressional delegation on a visit to Taipei.

In retaliation, China launched a series of dramatic military exercises.

‘They’re coming very close to Taiwan,’ said Taiwanese Foreign Minister Joseph Wu. ‘And any accident might spark an uncontrollable war in between Taiwan and China. And if other countries are trying to intervene, it might be the start of a war of great scale.’

Beijing may be physically aiming its exercises at Taiwan.

But in reality, the target is Washington.

‘It’s one of the larger provocations they’ve done,’ said McCaul to colleague Bret Baier. ‘Taiwan is very nervous and they should be.’

But lawmakers are urging calm.

‘We’ve got to be very careful to not make inflammatory statements that in any way put kerosene on fires,’ said Dingell.

Rep. Ami Bera, D-Calif., accompanied McCaul on the bipartisan trip to Taipei.

‘The goal here is not to go to war,’ said Bera. ‘The goal here right now is really economic deterrence. It’s not always just military deterrence and making sure China understands that were they to go that route, it would be incredibly disruptive. Not just to Asia. But the entire world.’

Bipartisan lawmakers want Congress to make sure Taiwan receives $19 billion in weapons it bought from the U.S. as soon as possible. But the U.S. hasn’t filled the order yet.

‘What we need to do is be able to speed that up in the process to make sure Taiwan has the weapons they have to defend themselves,’ said McCarthy to colleague Ashley Soriano.

‘U.S. support is very critical for Taiwan to deter the war from happening,’ said Wu, specifically calling for American weapons and training.

McCarthy previously declared that Ukraine does not have a ‘blank check’ from the U.S. treasury. But how about Taiwan?

‘Noting in American government has a blank check,’ said McCarthy.

There’s no talk of sending U.S. troops to the region to assist Taiwan. But that scenario remains a possibility.

‘It’ll be highly welcomed,’ said Wu.

The U.S. hasn’t formally ‘declared war’ since 1942. And that was against Romania. However, the Constitution requires Congress approve an authorization to dispatch U.S. troops into hostilities abroad. Lawmakers greenlighted such approvals in 1991 for the Gulf War, in 2001 after 9/11 and again in the fall of 2002 for the Iraq war in 2003. All three of those wars were generally popular with the public – although support for the Iraq campaign diminished significantly by 2006.

However, there’s now a coalition of bipartisan, anti-interventionist lawmakers in Congress. The number is growing on the Republican side of the aisle. Plus, the public is suffering from ‘war fatigue.’ It’s unclear where public sentiment lies on sending troops abroad for a showdown over Taiwan.

That said, the president could use his own, Constitutionally-afforded ‘war powers.’ But Congress has ceded war powers to the executive since the Truman Administration.

‘There are some Members of Congress who are concerned about this, but they don’t seem to have the full support of a committee to challenge the President,’ said Constitutional scholar and war powers expert Louis Fisher. ‘We have some ambiguity and it’s all in favor of independent, exclusive, presidential power over external affairs. And that’s not what the framers wanted. That’s not what the text of the Constitution says.’

Still, it’s possible China could force America’s hand when it comes to troops.

‘You have a Chinese military that is just emotionally wanting to fight. They know that they shouldn’t. But there is a bloodlust and we have to take that into account,’ said Chang. 

That’s what concerns policymakers about China. The U.S. has prepared for decades to wage a ‘two theatre’ war. In other words, wage simultaneous conflicts in Europe and Asia. Congressional Republicans are now in a budget cutting mode. But what would the cost of war over Taiwan mean to the Pentagon budget? That’s to say nothing of lawmakers fretting about the debt ceiling this summer.

Chang notes that few Americans tuned in to a specific episode three decades ago which led to another global conflict.

‘Islamic terrorists detonated a bomb under the North Tower of the World Trade Center in 1993 and killed six Americans. And we couldn’t have cared less,’ said Chang. ‘Until of course, on one day when Osama bin Laden killed 2,977 Americans. Then we understood the significance of what happened in 1993.’

Chang believes there is a similar lesson for Americans to learn from the Chinese spy balloon which floated across the U.S. this past winter.

Americans were angry that it happened. But Chang says most didn’t understand the implications of it.

That could be the case. Unless there’s a war over Taiwan which draws in the U.S.

This post appeared first on FOX NEWS

The Complete Trader, which we have featured in previous Dailys, is one of my favorite go-tos for trading ideas.

The columns help determine the trade setup. For example, an “Inside Day” that is also in a bullish stock phase. Also a narrow range that shows a narrower trading range than the prior four days’ ranges.

I like to use it based on market conditions. So, I will look at bullish compression, for example, if the overall market is holding support. And I also like to look at sectors that are setting up if those sectors are in alignment with the market and any new economic data.

Today, CPI came in basically as expected. With my bias towards consumers buying more of what they need, I like the area of consumer staples.

The first 3 of 4 picks are consumer staple companies: Conagra Brands (CAG), Pepsico Inc (PEP) and Proctor & Gamble (PG). These featured stocks are for educational purposes only and not buy recommendations. Trading involves risk, and we use specific risk parameters with profit targets for every trade we make.

CAG, at the time of writing, has a second inside day potential. That means investors have paused, which makes sense given the heavy data week. We like to watch range breaks after multiple inside days.

The price is above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The Real Motion indicator is in line with price, so there is no divergence. The risk, if you like moving averages as lines in the sand, is clear.

PEP had a golden cross of the 50- and 200-DMAs at the start of April. The price might be a bit extended as we look at distance from major moving averages to ascertain if we like the risk/reward.

Real Motion has had a mean reversion right at the top prints of 185. Nonetheless, the price action is worth watching.

PG recently had a golden cross. Like PEP, real motion indicates a mean reversion. Both PEP and PG would be more attractive to us if the price drops closer to the moving averages to control risk.

Nonetheless, 3 takeaways:

Price Compression in good phasesMomentum and distance from MAsStrong Sector-seeing the best Risk/Reward

For more detailed trading information about our blended models, tools and trader education courses, contact Rob Quinn, our Chief Strategy Consultant, to learn more.

IT’S NOT TOO LATE! Click here if you’d like a complimentary copy of Mish’s 2023 Market Outlook E-Book in your inbox.

“I grew my money tree and so can you!” – Mish Schneider

Get your copy of Plant Your Money Tree: A Guide to Growing Your Wealth and a special bonus here.

Follow Mish on Twitter @marketminute for stock picks and more. Follow Mish on Instagram (mishschneider) for daily morning videos. To see updated media clips, click here.

Mish in the Media

Mish joins Bob Lang of Explosive Options for a special webinar on what traders can expect in 2023!

Rosanna Prestia of The RO Show chats with Mish about commodities, macro and markets.

Mish talks opportunites in the market in this appearance on Business First AM.

Mish and Charles Payne rip through lots of stock picks in this appearance on Fox Business’ Making Money with Charles Payne.

Mish talks Beyond Meat (BYND) in this appearance on Business First AM.

In this guest appearance on the Madam Trader podcast, recorded March 20, Mish shares her journey from special education teacher to commodoties trader and now trading educator. Hear her insights on the spring 2023 market conditions and how to harness the right skills to succeed.

Follow Mish as she breaks down current market conditions for her friends across the pond on CMC Markets.

Mish talks about Dominion Energy with Angela Miles in this appearance on Business First AM.

Coming Up:

April 13th: The Final Bar with David Keller on StockCharts TV and Twitter Spaces with Wolf Financial and Twitter Spaces with Mario Nawfal

April 19th: Closing Bell on Cheddar TV

April 20th: Benzinga Pre-Market Prep

April 24-26: Mish at The Money Show in Las Vegas

May 2-5: StockCharts TV Market Outlook

ETF Summary

S&P 500 (SPY): 405 support, 410 pivotal over; a weekly close over 412.35 positive.Russell 2000 (IWM): 170 support, 180 resistance.Dow (DIA): Over some recent consolidation so watch 336 to hold.Nasdaq (QQQ): 312 support, over 320 better.Regional banks (KRE): 41.28 March 24 low held; now has to clear 44.Semiconductors (SMH): 258 resistance with support at 250.Transportation (IYT): 219-228 the wider range to watch.Biotechnology (IBB): 130 major pivotal area.Retail (XRT): Becoming a troublesome area, so before we get too giddy, needs to hold 59.

Mish Schneider

MarketGauge.com

Director of Trading Research and Education

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 2/6/23 at 4110.98.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.

Above is a sentiment indicator, the 5-day average of the CBOE Equity put/ call ratio (bottom window). It’s fairly rare (near once a year) for the 5-day average of the CBOE equity put/call ratio to reach .80 and higher. We noted those times previously prior to 2022 with blue lines. Notice that when the 5-day average of the Equity put/call ratio reached above .80, the market was at an important low. It has reached .80 and higher numerous times since May of last year (noted in light pink). Previously, it only took one time for the 5-day average Equity Put/call ratio to reach >.80 for the market to bottom. We now have numerous times the ratio reached .80 going back to May of last year, which in turn could add fuel to the next rally. Food for thought; in pre-election years (this year) April is up 94% of the time. If January was up (it was up over 6%)m April is up 88% of the time.

We said yesterday, and it still holds true, that “The top window is the NYSE McClellan Oscillator. A ‘Selling Climax’ occurs when the Oscillator falls below minus 300 and a ‘Sign of Strength’ forms when the Oscillator rallies above +200 and, in turn, signals an intermediate term low. We have identified the times when the Oscillator reached -300 (red line) than rallied to +200 (blue line). Notice that we have had two instances of a ‘Selling Climax’ and ‘Sign of Strength’ over the last several months, which may give extra power to the this potential bottom process.”

We previously posted this chart, which is now updated to today’s trading. Above is the weekly GDX chart, along with the weekly Cumulative GDX Up Down volume percent (bottom window), and the next higher window is the weekly cumulative GDX Advance/Decline percent. This setup works well on the bigger timeframe. We put Bollinger Bands on both GDX indicators. When both indicators close above their mid Bollinger Band, a buy signal is triggered (noted with the blue line) and when both indicators close below their mid Bollinger Band, a sell signal is triggered (noted with red line). We noted the time between the signals in the middle window, and all lasted at least 1 ½ years. The current buy signal was triggered in March of this year, and adding 1 ½ years to the current signal will give a time for the next high in September 2024, but could be extended for many months as this is the least amount of time expected.

Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. Book release “The Secret Science of Price and Volume” by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

Signals are provided as general information only and are not investment recommendations. You are responsible for your own investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future performance. Opinions are based on historical research and data believed reliable; there is no guarantee results will be profitable. Not responsible for errors or omissions. I may invest in the vehicles mentioned above.

Occasionally, the stock market gets hit with unpredictable black swan events. These throw the market into panic mode and send investors rushing to sell their positions. It can be a terrifying experience for individual investors and traders. Wouldn’t it be great to see market volatility ahead of time?

While there’s no forward-looking indicator that can anticipate tail risks, there is one indicator that can signal signs of jitteriness among professional traders. It’s the MOVE Index—Merrill Lynch Options Volatility Estimate, and when it moves, it’s time for traders and investors to be vigilant.

What Is the MOVE Index?

The MOVE Index measures fear in the bond market, that is, uncertainty about interest rates. It’s similar to the CBOE Volatility Index ($VIX). Both look at one-month volatility and realized volatility. The difference—VIX looks at equities, whereas MOVE looks at bonds.

Why is volatility in the bond market important? Well, the bond market is a much larger behemoth compared to the stock market. It includes corporate, government, domestic, and foreign debt securities. The bond market is the backbone of the financial system. While bonds are generally not volatile, they can be, especially when there’s a change in interest rates. Given that interest rate changes are front and center in investors’ minds, what happens in the bond market can be an earlier signal of volatility than in the stock market.

But aren’t equity markets more volatile than bond markets? Stocks are more volatile than bonds. But when bond volatility is higher than equity volatility, it’s a sign of trouble ahead. This is why it’s a good idea to regularly view a chart that compares the $VIX and $MOVE. 

How to Apply the MOVE Index

The two-year chart of the MOVE index ($MOVE) below brings up some important points.

CHART 1: $MOVE VS. $VIX. Although the $VIX is more volatile than $MOVE, when $MOVE moves up more than $VIX, it’s a sign of trouble ahead.Chart source: StockCharts.com. Data source: ICE. For illustrative purposes only.

$VIX is much more volatile than $MOVE.For the most part, $MOVE and $VIX move up and down in sync, but there are times when there’s a divergence between the two.$MOVE was below 100 (the index is expressed in basis points) during 2021 when interest rates stayed put. But when the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, the MOVE was generally higher than 100.During the regional bank crisis, $MOVE got very close to 200, the highest level it’s been in the last two years. The $VIX also increased, but not as much as $MOVE. When bonds are more volatile than stocks, it suggests there’s some serious nervousness brewing in the market.The $MOVE Index today (last price on the chart) is shy of 140—still relatively high, but moving downward. Meanwhile, the VIX is still below 20, suggesting that equity investors are complacent for now.

If the $MOVE starts creeping higher, it’s time to keep your eyes peeled and look around for clues on why bond investors are fearful. Because interest rate movements are a concern, an upward-moving $MOVE ahead of the next Fed meeting may indicate something unexpected on the horizon. You may want to add this chart to your ChartLists. 

But interest rates aren’t the only concern. There are other underlying economic factors to bring to your attention.

The Economic Landscape

In addition to inflation and interest rates, there are other uncertainties to focus on. The debt ceiling is a big one. Although Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned that the US economy is doing fine, you can’t ignore her comments from earlier this year about the necessity to raise the debt ceiling. We may not have to worry about it till the end of summer, but if the debt ceiling isn’t raised, regional banks—which hold a ton of Treasuries—and the entire financial system could feel the pain.

There are different points of view about whether we’ll see further downside in the banking sector or if it’ll stabilize. The chart of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) below looks like it may have stabilized, but anything could happen. So this is another chart to add to your ChartLists. (Note: click on chart for live version.)

CHART 2: IS THE FINANCIAL SECTOR STABILIZING? XLF looks like it may be stabilizing, but it’s not enough to confirm a trend reversal. The 200-day moving average could be a strong resistance level.Chart source: StockCharts.com. For illustrative purposes only.

Further weakness in XLF and a rise in $MOVE could portend danger ahead. Since bonds are the backbone of the financial system, if XLF starts falling again, you can expect $MOVE and its partner $VIX to wear their dancing shoes and start grooving to “I Like To Move It.” 

Investors won’t be grooving. They may shun away from US Treasuries, the US dollar could fall in value, and we could see a major correction in the equity market. Let’s hope $MOVE and $VIX don’t get over-excited, but it’s good to know in advance if that excitement is stirring.

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.

Have you ever wondered what a trader does during a trading day? This is the episode for you! In this week’s edition of Trading Simplified, Dave walks you through his daily routine, from waking up until bedtime. He also shares a setup that triggered in his “Methodology in Action” segment.

Next week, Dave continue his discussion on Jesse Livermore.

This video was originally broadcast on April 12, 2023. Click anywhere on the Trading Simplified logo above to watch on our dedicated show page, or at this link to watch on YouTube. You can also watch this and past episodes on the StockCharts on-demand video service StockChartsTV.com — registration is free!

New episodes of Trading Simplified air on Wednesdays at 12:00pm ET on StockCharts TV. You can view all recorded episodes of the show at this link. Go to davelandry.com/stockcharts to access the slides for this episode and more. Dave can be contacted at davelandry.com/contact for any comments and questions.

On this episode of StockCharts TV’s Sector Spotlight, I put the spotlight on Energy, starting off with a look at the rotation of various commodity groups and a focus on the group of Energy-related commodities. Following this assessment, I move to the Energy sector and the stocks inside it, highlighting a change in leadership and pointing out some individual stocks with potential.

This video was originally broadcast on April 11, 2023. Click anywhere on the Sector Spotlight logo above to view on our dedicated Sector Spotlight page, or click this link to watch on YouTube. You can also check out the video on the StockCharts TV on-demand website StockChartsTV.com, or on the associated app on mobile platforms like iOS and Android, or TV platforms like Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV and Chromecast.

Sector Spotlight airs weekly on Tuesdays at 10:30-11:00am ET. Past episodes can be found here.

#StaySafe, -Julius